This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Payrolls Beat Takes S&P Futures Over 1600
Markets are reacting strongly to the (+/-200k) payrolls report. The considerably better than expected number appears to be full risk-on (despite its potential for bringing the end of QE sooner). S&P 500 futures smashed through stops and stromed above 1600 for the first time ever. Treasury yields snapped 6bps higher. Gold plunged $25 and the USD surged. JPY appears the biggest mover for now with a 120 pip swing lower. Question is... will the knee-jerk hold through the open? VIX futures are down a mere 0.3 vols on the news.
Seems (as always recently) - Stocks were right.. as TSYs snap higher in yield and play catch up...
VIX futures don't seem so enthused...
»
- 11400 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Flash rally! High frequency melt up.
Green shoots
Go for throttle up!
Until the market thinks about the implications of the new FOMC wording about adjusting QE up or down.
Premise #1: The QE is working - therefore it must continue moar faster for even better results.
Premise #2: The QE hasn't worked quite yet - therefore it must continue moar faster until traction is gained.
it's quite simple, really...
they won't stop this ramp job until they take out the NAZ year 2000 highs above 5K... just because they can and who's to stop them?
QE -potash, nitrogen and phos. green shoots to da jack in da moon stawks
Just think of it as building LIFO inventory layers for gold prices.
full on air france 447
Let the fireworks begin!
My first price target is 2000 (using linear projection). The S&P 500 is pricing in future growth in the economy. Today's promising NFP figure is the confirming indicator that many investors were looking for. It is now absolutely undeniable that we are in a recovery. Why don't ZHers just trade the chart? LOL. I can't understand why you guys turn down easy profits :)
Sure, since down is the new up, and bad news means moar QE, which is very good news, where else could we be, than in the middle of an indeniable recovery. That's right ...
ahh MDB, you should have left the word "indeniable" in there, instead of replacing it with "undeniable"
"trade the chart" until there's a correction.
to the moon bitchez
stupid is as stupid does!
You are silly. Linear projection tells me, Infinity.
SHORT TREASURIES BITCHEZ, WE ARE MOVING TO STAGFLATION.
We are moving in stagflation slowly.. Nice.. I am short the treasuries...
Money moving out of bonds and cash and for now buying stuff, including stocks. When inflation gets to 4% ouch.... It will get there.
For now we have the ~back to normal ~ illusion. WHile ~normal~ was defined as continuous increase in leverage. This expansion is based on money not credit!!!
WHat happens first is that stocks have the last gasp of rally. What happens first is that Gold goes to 1,250.
But next what? We are in a bear market of Treasuries, meaning the wall of base money will stop playing with finanical assets and move into the real economy.
What is means is that the dam of money starts to leak in the circulation. Price will increase systemically for a long long time, unfortunately Gold has already priced a lot of the future price increase.
But, soft commodities have not yet. We are going to have an epic bear market of treasuries and epic stagflation.
For now ~back to normal illusion~ hedge your stocks with short treasuries.
Are those the same treasuries that the Fed and Japan are buying $180 billion per month of?
Yes, the same treasuries that are up big time since the last time he posted. Yields can go negative folks, and they will.
That guy is going to get people murdered telling them to short treasuries.
You can buy AIG or GNW (late on the trade).
It is a safer way to short treasuries (those companies have an inverted balance sheet).
What do you mean up big time?
Peaked last year already, and no new high so far, you should get the memo LawofPhysics. Bond bear market has started already.
THere is a big guy short Treasuries and long periphery bonds who is Dalio.
I think he knows the difference between money, currency and credit.
When credit stops contracting and money starts to move = BEAR MARKET FOR BONDS.
Japan and the US are not in hte business of making the curve as flat as possible once the banks are recapitalized.
The Fed wants to cancel some debt (if the debt is on the Fed balance sheet it is not debt anymore because it is rolled-over indefinitely).
And the Fed also wants to print some money by the same token. So that is why they buy Treasuries. As for assuming the Fed wants negative rates sure, but that does not equate a flat yield curve.
Rates can be negative at 2 -4-6-8-10 check the 60s and 70s....
It is not the nominal rate that counts, it is the real rates.
So forget about thinking that the Fed wants to prolong deflation by making the curve flat. The only way they can print money and cancel gov debt is by buying treasuries.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THEY WANT THE YIELD CURVE FLAT. THEY WANT THE YIELD NEGATIVE IN REAL TERMS.
Since the banks are recapitalized and housing stabilized, no need for flat curve anymore!!!
whitenight you are dreaming if you think this money will flow into the greater economy..........there is NO ORGANIC GROWTH GOING ON.............housing is a liquidity fueled orgy that would be crushed the minute interest rates rise, bigben stops purchasing mbs and banks actually expedite the release of distressed homes....................home ownership is at 1995 levels.......there is no stability.........and to say banks are recapitalized??? really? when were they not capitalized knowing that bigben is always the sugar daddy willing to backstop them at any moment???
where are the jobs whitenight??? i know of few small business owners blossoming as we speak..........i know many older baby boomers who are working menial jobs to support themselves......................who is going to disseminate this wave of money into the economy?? the younger generation who are loaded down with student loans??? the millions who havent seen real wage growth in decades????? lets see that annual trillion dollar debt fueled spending spree end, then lets see the gdp numbers as a result......then we can talk about stability in housing.....................
for a smart guy you sure as hell arent getting it...............................
KITO
Who talked about real growth?
Stagflation = price increases copious, with tepid real growth.
M2/MB multiplier is irrelevant.
Why? Because M2 measures currency expansion due to credit expansion.
Currency deposits are more and more backed by base money (excess reserves).
Just spend you currency deposit backed by base money is equivalent to base money released in the economy.
What is means is that the dam of money starts to leak in the circulation..............
there will be no money going into circulation....the money continues to be spoon fed from bens favored sons and only pumped back into assets.....the economy sees none of it.......................................
there will be no inflation................................
and to say housing is stablized???!?! really??!??!?
How????? by deception??????
By raising the replacement cost.
The replacement cost of home has risen a lot since 2007. That curtails new inventory from home builders (if they do not recoup replacement cost, they do not build).
There is also decay of homes. And there is nominal (albeit small) median income risen (even if in real terms it is down).
Money printing lifts all boats and kill finanical assets in the long term, while making them look great first because they are the first to receive the base money.
Your comment betrays a confusion between a boom fueled by credit (where interests piling become more and more problematic for the boom) with a boom fueled by money (there is no interest payment and repayment attached to base money, none).
What happens with a boom fueled by money is that it is self-reinforcing. The boom fueled by money bears no interest so unlike a boom fueled by credit. A boom fueled by credit creates higher and higher interest to repay while at the same time there are frictions of prices due to excess credit boom, the margins shrink while the interest payments are higher. So that is why commodities were going up and then crashed. It was an over-excitement of credit.
This self destructs into a bust of credit deflation.
A boom fueled by money accelerates as inflation moves higher, so it stops only when no more base money is left to be spent.
So interest rates kill a credit induced boom, but only slow a money induced boom because there are no interest rates to repay, no principal to repay when you spend money, unlike spening from credit.
In a boom fueled by money, interest rates are a bribe for base money to stay idle. In order to really calm a money fueled boom, you need positive real rates (Volcker). Remember that leverage was low during 60s and 70s. It was a money induced boom.
So interest rates will rise to choke the economy in order to prevent the base money to move too fast.
That is what Soros describes in the Davos interview when he says we will have a go-stop-go environment like the 70s in 2-3 years from now.
perhaps you can run the effect numbers on housing and national debt interest payments if interest rates were allowed to rise.............................
Dude that guy has been shorting treasuries since the 10yr was over 2%.
whitenight is throwing alot of fancy terminology around, but it doesnt equate to predictive powers........................he doesnt know what he up against with me..............i see dead people.............................
The irony is, technically he should be right, but for the same reasons you mentioned everyone around you and I now think we are completely nuts, he has been wrong.
Agree. Trade what you see, not what you think. s@p 2145 my target. It's been going up for years, who cares why.
Money printing always market up.
Ben Bernanke needs to print money and the best way to get people out of the stock market and spend is to have the price going ludicrous.
Once they spend, Bernanke slows down the printing.
The stock market is the hose, the Fed pushes water into the hose, but the purpose is to get some of the base money spent in the real economy (the flower pot).
The stock market is just a conduit that is inflated for as long as the water has not reached the flower pot.
Yes, but then again we have 10 out of 11 months positive in the SP500 and an enormous deviation from the 200 moving average. It is stretched already by all means, if it goes more it will become ballistic.
Truth is that the Italian 10 year yield is getting close to our 30 year treasury yield (gasp!) and our long-term corporate junk bond yield has just touched an all-time historic low of 5.3%!!! if this is not an enormous warning sign, then I don't know what is.
Yes, we are in the last stretches of the bull market, maybe a few quarters more.
MDB..on the surface the ADP report is a good number. Did deeper. Approximatley 150,000 people enter the workforce every month. 70% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending. Today's number revealed that 39% ofthe jobs created were in the bar, restauran, retail sector. Nothing that will boost consumer spending. Long term we've got major major issues. The short term horizon is scary. Especially, Obamacare. The economy is in a slow mode recovery. True, the S&P does price based upon future gorwth. However, the last thing we need right now is another entitlement paid (disproportionatley) by the 70% that spend. Tune in April/May 2014 and see how the Dems spin the wheel.
If you want to play stocks at least play the negative duration stocks like AIG and GNW. That is what I am doing. For the rest, duration compressed for yeeaaaaarrs.... Good luck with the last gasp of rally. This rally is the trigger which will make base money move into real economy...
"The considerably better than expected number appears to be full risk-on (despite its potential for bringing the end of QE sooner)"
Might as well be risk on, because even the idiots at CNBS and the algos all know, QE will never end, or even get reduced. I'd say its BTFD until the wheels fall off the car. Hopefully one can top tick the market and get out just in time to have your account and all of your capital and capital gains Corzined before you can convert them to physical gold. Either way you lose, unless you were smart enough to salt away some gold before they stole your wallet.
I'm glad for you. Reallly, I am. Sell now...if you have any sense. Your OVERLORDS are.
It's incredibly dumb. Birth/death added 192k jobs. net/net we lost jobs last month.
Here comes Debbie Downer.
Inorite?
Can't people just bask in the glory of our vastly improving economy ffs? Geeze, people are so cynical these days. I don't know why people want to focus ont he facts and shit, only the headline matters.
OK.....I'm sorry!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddOk6kUXioA
Next thing you'll tell us is that all those part-time jobs don't offer family-sustaining wages.
I always like to hear the "family of 4 making minimum wage can't blah blah blah..." Why is there such a thing as a family of 4 making minimum wage? Why in the HELL are you having kids if you are still making minimum wage? Have all the kids you want, if YOU can afford them.
Curiously, CNBC had on its site in the overnight a column about 'low expectations' for jobs. To me, that was a telegraphed message that the falsified jobs print was going to be on the north side. But now that post is un-find-able on their site. Anyone see it, seen it since?
Or was I just a little long on my single malt last night? (it happens)
As Mish would say, you cannot just subtract the birth/death number from the general NFP number. Statistics, you know.
France 30 year government bond yield at 2.82% - US 30 year bond yield at 2.91%. Which one would you pick? I'd pick the US any day - this will not last.
QE to infinity and beyond!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfXC9T8hzlY
Offcourse it will hold. is this a pomo day?
No, actually.
And Monday is the anniversary of something
It's not, but it is friday, and that should suffice.
It's funny how the robots trade as if these numbers were real.
Its all robots running the show. Well, except for that one guy behind the curtain pulling the levers . . .
its real because the robots make it real.
I can't see how they make a profit doing this. When the numbers are announced, the robots buy ahead of everyone else, bringing the price higher, losing money on this trade but getting no value since there are no fundamentals. A huge amount of greater fools is required in order to compensate them for this loss, making the whole operation profitable.
So, what's the point again?
You know, the SPY can go much higher than "just" kissing 1600 - danger of short squeeze is imminent with respect to retail positoning IM<H>O.
But yea, part time, bitchez. ;=)
I'm going to use your name the next time I meet a chick at a bar.
Joe Fiatski. I'm an economist. You've got really pretty eyes, why don't we go back to your place and I can show you what happened in Cyprus.
You know this dirty paper ponzi thing? I invented it. That's where it got the name.
It's a great Surname!! Contains the essence of this, the previous and many decades of money printing to come, until the time that a Great New Fiat is Revealed - One World Fiat.
Cyprus LOL - Cornholing happened, which I hedged against!
Might have just as well been Payrolls Miss Takes S&P Futures Over 1600
Will it hold? My guess is the S&P closes up 40 points today. Throw 300 points on the dow and gold finishes down $100.
They will try to make every last person alive chase this ponzi higher.
DAMN...it's a full-retard fest out there!
Told ya....no major drop will happen until 2015..just buy the dip
2015 sounds about right. We should have a 20% correction meantime. Folllowed by bat out of hell printing. Then...the great reckoning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRVhtVCfzo8
damn i'm gonna be rich right quick at this rate! [/sarc.]
Is any sane Z/H reader surprised? Send me the teletype from MadMen asap...
What about gold and silver ?
Obliterated (paper)
Pretty much recovered.
POO's looking like a sprinter on speed.....what the hell is up with that?
So what will be the manipulation on the other two non-pomo days this months? Any thoughts? These days are the 13th and the 27th?
And 24th.
WTF. The market reacted to the news 8 minutes earlier than the news were published at 8:38 ET.
This means leaked news? And if it does, why do it in the open in a huge trade, just 8 minutes earlier, and so that everyone will notice?
The embargo ends at 8:30. Those that pay to receive live feed from the AP, Thomson, Bloomber, et. al. get it at 8:30. You're a pleb and you get it delayed.
Hmpf. Makes it pretty clear who does the BLS work for, right?
You could have went to Bhttp://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar and clicked on the Release and keep hitting F5 til it appeared.
No 8 min delay there?
Now that I think of, they will always beat me anyway, even if it's just by fractions of a second. Perhaps the fastest way to know the results is by looking at real time market chart. That will instantly tell if it's bullish or bearish without having to read the actual news ;-)
If it was more than 8 minutes earlier then you wouldn't recognize the move for what it was supposed to be portrayed as being. You see they know that you know that they know stuff before you know stuff but if they act too quickly then you won't know what they want you to know which is that they know stuff you don't know before you don't know it. Got it?
Heh. Yeah, hard to read but makes perfecte sense once it passed through my syntax parser.
Gold back almost unchanged.
Average Workweek fell with them adding jobs. Part-Time employment FTW!
Why should anyone else have to work more than the President? Who is late for his golf game, by the way.
Only 16 more days of no debt ceiling. They can't pass up his opportunity to refinance ... everything ...
Short aud/jpy! I don't talk shit. I trade it! Real time <img src="http://imageshack.us/a/img515/5240/realtime.png" alt="Image Hosted by ImageShack.us"/><br/>
the only way is up.
These absurd jobs revisions and adjustments could just well be the excuse needed by the Fed to start unwinding QE cause they know it's already out of control.
QEternity. The FED even hints they are done keeping rates artifically lower and we will see rates soar. Every 1% (100 basis point) increase in future interest rates adds over $165 billion in annual interest to future mandatory spending. Let the shit show begin
next stop is german style 30's unrest, then, well a power vacuum.
then, we shall meet our new fuhr...
Everybody knows QE cannot be stopped...so it can only go one way: UP, UP, UP.
Here comes the LIQUIDITY Bubble!
Time to buy some 10Y on this dip.
WE ARE SAVED ! LOL... 20K BEAT THAT S WHAT IT TAKES TO SAVE THE US ECONOMY... LOL re-LOL
You may be misreading the market reaction. The headline number is good, which is bad, but the underlying news is bad, which is good for the market. Bad news = qe infinity, = hookers and blow 4evah.
<phew> Thank Goldman! I thought we were never going to get out of this rut. Now Ben can pull back the punch bowl.
Nothing but sincerety as far as the eye can see... (Linus Van Pelt)
1600... YAAAAY!!!
(May the farce be with you)
Gold almost touched $1500 premarket. They had to jack up the numbers by 35K to stop that from happening. The rest is noise.
I agree with milliondollarbonus_ ..... we are all wrong to deny the markets, the market is always right.
All this buying this morning, gee I wonder who's selling?
Not many.
NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE REPLACEMENT POWER OF EQUITIES WITHIN A RE-FLATIONARY SPIRAL !!!!!!!
CTRL-P = S&P 2,500.
Now is the time for selling to the bagholders as the rollover begins...
This is insane!
Yep. Absolute insanity.
Forget it.....we're rolling.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToWcEqQhnIU
Just like that the Dax shoots above 8,000. 10 trillion dollars later and we have records being broken everywhere.
Doc, you're the level head in the Emergency Room.
I predict there will be a "About that payroll number" post in the next couple of hours. Tyler is probaly typing it as we speak
Selling doesn't start on bad news it simply just starts. Remember all the $1000 calls on AAPL when it cracked $700 and the iPad Mini was going to change the world? AAPL just turned around. No bad news at all it just started going down. $650 was supposed to be great support, then $600, then $550 etc... all the way down. Wil I try to short today? Of course! Will I get stopped out of that short positions? Of course I will. What I do know is a bad number would have brought in dip buyers in the first hour. So I will wait and see what this first hour brings.
That Bitch will pop up with usd/jpy. Get, while the getting is good...
Barbecued shorts getting carried out again. Marty Zweig must be shaking his finger at them for trying to battle the FED and the TAPE. And David Stockman and Bill Gross are fainting by now - SELL RISK? Not bloody likely...Sell CASH, short fiat!
Wow Tyler talking about the potential end of qe.....and sooner!!!.....Tyler are you throwing in the white flag??? Your legion of followers have been carrying your flag.....what gives????
Look behind you.
I really like these reports, nice clear charts, succinct and quite often helps me to work out what's been going on. Particularly the end of day stuff.
Nice stuff.
DavidC
AND THE RECESSION ALSO JUST ENDED TODAY IN EUROPE!!! AGAIN!!!
WAW WAW WAW !!!!
RALLY BITCHEZ!!!
"The European Commission released its official growth forecast today, the Commission downgraded its forecast of Euro-zone growth to -0.4% for 2013 from a previous estimate of -0.3%."
Success!
they'll revise that.
Revision of a revision? How Orwellian.
Markets on Viagra.
i listened to tyler and went long bitcoin and short the market. big mistake.. bitcoin has crashed spectacularly, and my shorts have been getting crushed, mercilessly! be careful out there, speculator. stay safe.
And Robert Downey Jr. is taking a fourth turn in the role of Iron Man. What could be more important than that?</sarc>
The local news station that I listen to had their financial reporter spend two minutes analyzing the jobs report. But now, for over four minutes, the movie critic has been jawing his piehole about RDJ and Iron Man 4.
But I guess it's all about priorities you know. Happy Friday to everyone in Banana Republic Land.
who the fuck is actually buying these shit companies at these valuations?
i really am curious how there is no profit taking whatsoever in this market.
its like people dont wat to make money, they just want to prop up prices
hedgies get their 2 and 20 on notional gains, not actual gains. of course they are trying to ram it higher. it's not like they have to give it back in the bad years. they are being paid to jam this thing higher.
anyone who lives and works in the real world can see that the economies are slowing down a lot, the markets are NOT an indicator at all. Let us just take a look at Europe - bankrupt. Let us take a look at the USA - 45 million on foood stamps and rising!
Update. Just like yesterday without the POMO. Trailing Stops are are set <img src="http://imageshack.us/a/img62/8348/updateqf.png" alt="Image Hosted by ImageShack.us"/><br/>
2 Live Crew-Dick Almighty - YouTube
Air Israel please clear the runway!