This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
S&P Regains November Up Trendline
Wondering why we didn't push any higher on today's seemingly awesome payrolls print? Wonder no longer... The S&P 500 futures just surged up to perfectly tap the lower edge of the November 2012 up-trend. Today's volume is heavy - centred around the spike - with average trade size very large (highest in 2 months) - are pros buying the highs or selling? Do we go on to greater things and retest the upper-edge? or is this the squeeze that ends it? Who knows - but given what CNBC thinks, we will never fall again.
click image for larger eligible version
»
- 11726 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
hey tylers----is it time for me to take my short off yet???
Nobody wants you to take your shorts off...
And for those of you without a calculator, that's a 40% CAGR. And the Russell has a CAGR of about 50%, and the Tranies are printing a 60% CAGR?!?!?!?
WTF? Really?
The economy has been growing at a 40% to 50% annualized rate?
Really?!?!?
There I go again. Trying to impose even a modest amount of logic to this "market." Thank God its Friday.
Re: "are pros buying the highs or selling?"
For every buyer there is a seller. Today the shorts are forced to be the buyers.
BTW, the NFP report was leaked. Yesterday's ramp was front-running by the syndicates. Today, they are holding up the levels forcing the shorts to cover.
This is the fool me thrice edition, except this time instead of going down in a cyclical motion as before (when things were sort of normal) now we go UP, UP and UP and UP until there is literally blood on the streets! Because Plan A is Up and die, whereas Plan B is down and die. I expect to see the SPX at 1800 I also expect to see normal everyday Americans throwing rocks at riot police who will proceed under rights to beat those dissenters to absolute shit....thats the truth ZH's.
Again...one of the most ridiculous candles I have seen in a while...this wasn't about an average very manipulated NFP...this is war and this is the new norm. The FEDS are here for your cash, this is wealth consolidation 101.
So... from here... is the market expected to continue up, up, up, up, up... or do we take a breather and have a down day on Monday before going up, up, up, up, up, up?
Good probability this head fake will not stick.
I'm sorry to say but this is a FULL on run for ALL of the bears, the next time the market collapses it will be when paper money notes are worth as much as the paper they are printed on...and by then just being short in the market won't even matter. The real world matters, get the fuck out there and start doing something productive! Value bitchezs!
That single Japanese girl sure has white teeth. Funny name, too, but I will not join Free now.
Maybe Blythe Masters will have to take her shorts off......in prison.
She belongs to the chosen ones. They don't go to prison. Ever.
That so? A synagogue gal?
Sadly, I would watch that video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXH_12QWWg8
here it is
Dam, now im hungry
Do it the day before they stop printing money. They are probably only waiting for you to cover before pulling the plug anyway.
No need me to capitulate as well
One more squeeze to 1630 should be the end of the rally for a while--technically.
Well, technically, I gave up on technicals around 500 S&P points ago.
'Technicals'? Oh, sure.
Technicals don't apply to penny stocks, which is what the S&P 500 is trading like.
at least until 85 billion becomes 120 billion per month, "turning Japanese"- the understatement of the century.
85? Really, you think they have been stopping at 85 bln? Me thinks 85 has been on the low end, and I bet the very low end.
Based on what technicals? Lack of events, expiries, pomo every day next week would suggest vix-smashing, muppet-inviting grind higher?
What can go wrong baby!
Oh thank goodness, because there for a moment, I thought Bank of Israel was actually going to let me buy cheaper equities today.
Central Banks just buying ETF's.....what is not to like?
Now where is that rip cord? It was just here.
So who is selling the Treasuries?
How much does that move add to our debt burden?
every 100 basis points higher in yield = $164BB in added funding liability
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/tag/deficit-reduction/
GLad to see you accept it as your debt! As for the rest of you whingers on here .....
Paper promises are cheap and easy to find. Equities, collateral, and assets of real value, not so much.
In the payrolls report the hours worked declined by 0.2 which is 0.5% times 143 million workers equals the equivalent of +700K jobs lost. Not that reality matters anymore.
Internal technical indicators are all bearish but given the thiness of the market it could continue up for a while. Seeing as how its at record margin, any collapse will be simply epic.
I get the feeling this is a trap...nothing supports this..hell, nothing supports S&P 1000...
Arizona Governor Jan Brewer vetoed a measure on Thursday that would have made gold and silver legal tender in the state, saying the legislation could have resulted in lost tax revenue.
The Republican-controlled state legislature voted through the measure last month in a response to what backers said was a lack of confidence in the international monetary system. The bill called for Arizona to make gold and silver coins and bullion legal tender beginning in mid-2014, joining existing U.S. currency issued by the federal government.
"While I believe the concern over a devalued dollar as a result of an unsustainable federal deficit is justified, I am unable to support this legislation," Brewer, a Republican, said in an open letter to state Senate President Andy Biggs. "While I believe the concern over a devalued dollar as a result of an unsustainable federal deficit is justified, I am unable to support this legislation," Brewer, a Republican, said in an open letter to state Senate President Andy Biggs.
"This would result in lost revenue to the state, while giving businesses that buy and sell collectable coins or currency originally authorized by Congress an unfair tax advantage," she said."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/03/usa-arizona-gold-idUSL2N0DK02620130503
Goodbye Jan, we hardly knew you. Never bite the hand that feeds you.
suck it , Jan ! guess i'll move to Utah instead ....
I'm glad to hear that it's all fair down in Arizona and that noone enjoys an unfair advantage when it comes to money matters...
"I'm glad to hear that it's all fair down in Arizona and that noone enjoys an unfair advantage when it comes to hypocrisy..." - fixed. The majority of the hispanics are actually very conservative and live/work in a black market where PMs and physical cash changes hands all the time. Jan is done.
Looks to me like a head formation is in progress, April left shoulder is already in. :)
/no position
Indeed, but where does the head top out? Maybe if we see some profit taking in the afternoon the trandline will not be held and this could see a dip back to the neckline. Then again, why are we bothering with technicals in this market?
It tops out when Bernapkins reduces, or hints at reducing monthly QE even by mere 5 bln.
Bullshit scenario?
We'll see.
"In April, companies hired 165,000 more workers, but they cut everyone’s hours (on average) by 12 minutes. That doesn’t sound like much of a decline, but spread out over the 135 million-strong work force, the decline in hours worked is the equivalent of firing more than 500,000 workers while keeping hours steady.
The 0.4% decline in hours worked in April means the economy isn’t quite as strong as you’d think on first glance."
Marketwatch article here.
Everyone know that the markets are fraudulent. US debts and unfunded liabilities are $446,000 a person and rising $26,000 a year. So US Treasuries have a very high chance of default. Yet US bonds are the priciest in 237 years and UK bonds are the most expensive in 300 years. And gold and silver, real money through the ages, keep falling.
You cannot end ponzi schemes without blowing up. This ponzi will end when nobody expects it to end.
Alert readers know, today is a NO POMO day:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-30/shorting-stocks-these-pomo-days...
However Monday the printing press rolls, and it's to the moon...and beyond!
Only if the PDs are buying equities, treasuries can only fall so far before the yield become s problem again.
DOW 15500...then it is over.
new normal: Higher highs, boundless upside
DIA 2.9 mil todays volume vs. 6.3 mil avg daily volume.
SPY 70.5 mil todays volume vs. 128 mil avg daily volume.
QQQ 17.5 mil todays volume vs. 33 mil avg daily volume.
IWM 27 mil todays volume vs. 38.8 mil avg daily volume.
Russell 2000 is trading on higher intraday but all other idexes are not trading on extraordinary volume based on these etf structures.
DIA 2.9 mil todays volume vs. 6.3 mil avg daily volume.
3.1 mil 15 minutes later
0.2 *12 = 2.4 approximate for the rest of the day
5.3 expected by end of the day
SPY 70.5 mil todays volume vs. 128 mil avg daily volume.
74.8 15 minutes later
4.3 *12 = 51.6
122.1 expected by the end of the day
QQQ 17.5 mil todays volume vs. 33 mil avg daily volume.
18.7 15 minutes later
1.2 *12 = 14.4
31.9 expected by the end of the day
IWM 27 mil todays volume vs. 38.8 mil avg daily volume.
27.7 15 minutes later
0.7 *12 = 8.4
35.4 expected by the end of the day.
Extrapolating on a 15 minute increment taken near 1:00 pm. Last hour of trading could take these expected volumes higher. It is by no means breakout volume in my very crude analysis.
DIA
2.9 mil todays volume vs. 6.3 mil avg daily volume.
3.1 mil 15 minutes later
5.3 expected by end of the day'
3.5 mil 2:00pm trading at a slower pace this past hr.
SPY
70.5 mil todays volume vs. 128 mil avg daily volume.
74.8 15 minutes later
122.1 expected by the end of the day
86 mil 2:00pm trading at a slower pace this past hr.
QQQ
17.5 mil todays volume vs. 33 mil avg daily volume
18.7 15 minutes later
31.9 expected by the end of the day
22.5 mil 2:00pm trading at a slower pace this past hr.
IWM
27 mil todays volume vs. 38.8 mil avg daily volume.
27.7 15 minutes later
35.4 expected by the end of the day.
31.4 mil 2:00pm trading at a slightly higher pace this past hr.
Last hour of trading could take these expected volumes higher. It is by no means breakout volume in my very crude analysis.
No, I was not wondering why we did not push any higher. I was thinking the opposite.
That's a bullshit chart .... ZH, either your economists don't understand the world the way it is or they are anywhere from one to five years early in their death spiral.
That's a bullshit chart .... ZH, either your economists don't understand the world the way it is or they are anywhere from one to five years early in their death spiral.
indeed like general ackbar said:
its a trappppp
cnbc has killed more people than Hitler, Bin Laden, and Stalin combined. I truly dont know how they sleep at night shilling for wall st. I assume none of them have a grand parent. Only the most desperate do their kind of handy work. I hold them right up there with people that torture animals for profit. Scum.
While we're at it drawing lines, S&P channel means it could end the year near 1800. Moronic way to forecast, but this is a moron's game.
Fed's Lacker says more QE will not boost growth while posing risk
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations."
Funny how Lacker isn't on the committee.
There is really no point in being short in these markets. FED and rest of the central bankers are making sure this "bonanza" never ends.
My Simple Rules of Investing that I don't mind sharing:
1. There are always ignorant fools, well-meaning idiots, paid shills, sleazy snakeoil salesmen and fees-dependant brokers, who will dispense advice that makes everyone rich but me. Even on this site.
2. DIVERSIFY! Build assets + revenue streams for the long run. Every dog has his day, and every asset and asset-class has its day: A time to buy, a time to hold, a time to sell. Use the ratio of 1/3's
1/3 Real/Primary wealth = Nature-made things (Food or Rent generating Property, Commodiites: Minerals, Mineral & Water rights, PM...)
1/3 Secondary Wealth = Man-made things (Equity in businesses, works of art)
1/3 Tertiary/Paper Wealth = Man-made 'documents of economic faith' (Bonds, Treasuries, Loans & Mortgages, Derivatives, Patents/IP)
3. Opportunities & Dangers vary with economic cycles and phase of given cycle. Build for Opportunities, hedge/protect against Dangers.
People will always try to steer you into 'their' magical asset class, but beware of #1 above. Nothing lasts forever, and no asset is "forever" up or down. Other than all of us needing our own "Tara" ('Gone With The Wind') to keep forever for self and our family, all else is an 'investment'. And ALL have their up and down cycles.
Having said this, I am reminded by family & friends that I have violated my own laws & guidelines in the last 6 months, insofar I have unbalanced my asset allocation with excessive allocation into 1 type of Primary Wealth: PM. In doing so, I may have "preserved/stored value" of the cash, but I have missed out on equity growth and dividends from tertiary wealth (stocks). All because I've allowed myself to be affected by the Doom, Boom & Gloom industry, and its purveryors of "doomsday" advice (Doomsday2012, Doomsday2013, Doomsday2014).
Simply stated, I intend to stop to BTFD, as I have enough PM at these price points. Bullion which is stored domestically and abroad. Unless bullion prices drop more (down to $1300-1400 range), I do not plan to buy more. Rather, I plan use part of my 'dry powder' of fiat money to get back into Value investments in Secondary and Tertiary wealth. But not so much in the US. Rather it will be mostly in the Developing world, as I have enough risk exposure to the US -- given that I live here. A 30/70 allocation between domestic and foreign assets seems right, for me.
The country and the world is indeed a big place. Thanks to the events & services provided by Simon Black and Doug Casey, and the wonderful people from the US, Canada an UK I have met through them, I have found attractive investment vehicles in the Developing world, and am in process of rebalancing my assets accordingly. An offshore trust is still in the forefront of my mind.
/ I think I shall sleep better, and use my days better to focus on work and family, and not on being ANGRY ("Acquired Neurosis of Gold Revenue Yields"). Rather than hanging out with ANGRY people, I need to spend more time with HAPPY (Healthy Assets Purchasing & Positive Yields) people.
One to beam up. /cheeky-bastard mood
Notes: [As is often the case of my personality, I like to blend clinical analysis, insight and tounge-in-cheek remarks. And I sometimes like to use my moniker as a borrowed vehicle or metaphor for lateral thinking, or perspectives with a paradigm shift, to... look at a problem from a different/fresh perspective. Because it's fun and intellectually stimulating. In the process, I hope to add value to the blogs.]
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1367608346.php
Because of excessive government interference with interest rates, those desperate for income—including pension funds—have pushed prices of virtually all secure sources to nosebleed heights. When the Fed eventually does raise interest rates, the bond bubble will be pricked and the stampede to get out of bonds should be like a herd of elephants attempting to exit through a revolving door. What to do in such a bond market crisis? Aside from TDL's blue-chip recommendations, we always recommend dispersing assets in several "friendly" countries. Also, diversifying in golds and silvers, including Saint-Gaudens double-eagle gold coins, rather than just keeping capital entirely in fiat currencies.
The world is in what we call "The Second Great Depression," comparable with the first one, in the 1930s. As laid out in my final business book, "Goldbug!," doubling the money supply in 1922 to pay for World War I caused a great inflation that after 1929 was corrected by the First Great Depression, in the 1930s. The similar printing of enormous quantities of paper money, not backed by anything except more paper, has also resulted in the current Great Deflation, still deepening, worldwide. The soup kitchens of the 1930s have been replaced by food stamps, but the resemblance is not coincidental.
Realizing that Keynesian economics failed to end unemployment after the 1932 crash, until World War II began around 1940, enabled us to predict with specific clarity that it would not work these days either. Indeed. Historically, large quantities of printing-press money has failed to reduce the downward trend of Americans with jobs in recent years. Few believed our prediction of "The Coming End of the Age of Jobs," or that it would lead to "The Coming New Social Order," but it is already unfolding. Unemployment in Europe already ranges between 20% and 50%, depending.
It is difficult for investors to protect themselves in this situation, but we cover it as best we can. We have recommended blue-chip stocks that have a dividend yield higher than that of U.S. Treasury paper, because they are proxies for institutions seeking to park their cash in areas other than overpriced bonds. That should end when the Federal Reserve finally allows interest rates to rise, but its fanaticism in continuing to suppress rates despite the Keynesian method not working represents a triumph of hope over experience—and will not end well.
Especially shocking is the delusion that adding inflation to a deflation would somehow cancel each other out, but is in fact the futile attempt to cure a problem with its cause. Overprinting paper runs at increasing risk of an eructation of "hyperinflation"—please note it is a word not used anywhere in the mainstream press these days. Predicting a hyperinflation is so daring in today's environment that we might be mistaken, so we will have to get closer toward the end game to be more confident of it. We hope we are mistaken.
Nothing buy up trend in the S&P500 since November.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-daily-daily-falls-1-close-1540-co...
GDP falls 22% - from 3.4% to 2.5% and markets keep going higher.
the Tyler’s ought to know better, this is no trend-line. This is a microcosm of a logarithmic curve, not a line. And that is a smaller sequence of repeating cyclic booms & busts.