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Chinese Growth - Real Or Imagined?
We toyed with titling this post "Lies, Damned Lies, And Chinese Statistics" but perhaps that is a little harsh, though one glance at the chart below and one instantly comprehends the efforts that are being undertaken to 'show' the world that China's transition is on target (and crumbling into collapse). As we recently noted, it is actually unlikely that China can complete this transition to organic (as opposed to investment-led) growth (with moderate growth the exception not the rule), and China's recent trade data does not pass the smell test. As GREED & Fear's Chris Wood notes, with the Hong Kong trade data being released last week, it is worth noting a growing discrepancy between the data on China’s exports to Hong Kong reported by mainland’s customs department and the corresponding data on Hong Kong’s imports from China reported by Hong Kong’s Census and Statistics Department in March. Such inconsistency in China’s export numbers relative to the imports data from its trading partners has generated growing speculation about the credibility of China’s trade figures. Various explanations have been put forward (below) but the divergence would seem far too large to be simply explained by "different statistical methods" as the Chinese government's official line notes.
Via GREED & Fear,
...Hong Kong’s reported imports from China rose by “only” 13.8%YoY to US$20.6bn in March and were up 10%YoY to US$56bn in 1Q13. By contrast, China reported that exports to Hong Kong surged by 93%YoY to US$48.4bn in March and were up 74%YoY to US$106bn in 1Q13. As a result, the ratio between China’s reported exports to Hong Kong and Hong Kong’s reported imports from China has surged to 2.35 times in March, up from 1.36x in 2012 and an average of 1.11x during the previous five years between 2007 and 2011.
Such inconsistency in China’s export numbers relative to the imports data from its trading partners has generated growing speculation about the credibility of China’s trade figures.
One suggestion, as noted by CLSA’s head of economic research Eric Fishwick, is that Chinese companies have been inflating their shipment data to take advantage of the government’s export tax rebates.
Another explanation GREED & fear has heard recently is that Chinese companies are over-invoicing their exports to evade capital controls to bring in money from abroad.
GREED & fear for now has no idea about the exact cause of such a huge discrepancy. But it is a point to be aware of. The divergence would seem too large to be simply explained by “different statistical methods”, as argued by the mainland’s General Administration of Customs spokesman, Zheng Yuesheng.
Source: GREED & Fear
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Chinese growth is about on par with Asian long dicks. Mostly a fantasy.
Chinese growth? Laudated and fraudulous.
Chinese citizenism blobbing up? Plentifully and extremistic.
Signed: AnAnonymous
so many empty strip mall stores..
so few chinese goods
no connection with real money, of course
Y'all think the BLS fudges the data?
There are so many people, such a vast region, so great the cultural divisions, so underdeveloped the communications infrastructure, they can't have a bloody clue what the "real" data is, any more than Cloid and Gidney trying to keep track of the Scrooch Gun
+1
Signed,
A fellow alumni of Wossamotta U...
“Chinese Growth - Real Or Imagined?”
Borrowed!
Send some folks over there to stimulate the economy from the USSA.
Shocking. China is still a state-run, single-party, communist government/country. The oligarchs in the U.S. can only dream of having the same kind of power over this kind of herd of sheep. Does not mean they won't try.
.
Chineses moving parallely to achieving US system of a state-run, single-party, fraudulist government/country.
Plentifully evidences of extremic simulasticity.
No sheep, like Chinese sheep.
.
Ah, aggreed. Truthness in the telling, literrally. No sheep like Chineses sheep accessorily, corresponds to many rats like Chineses sheep.
The chart does look like a dick. It can only go down again.
Probably those HK import/export figures are correct. The rise marks the rise of gold trading.
The down arrows need to check their facts (or even review the ZH post on Asian cock size recently - Small)
Don't think! Just say 'Raciss"
Keep saying that till thinking stops...
Cue shock, shock, SHOCK when Chinese GDP later comes in negative sometime this year or in the next. And no-ONE could have foreseen it!
But the Chinese still have more gold combined than Ft Knox or the NYFED (or Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, etc etc).
Good, because they will need it to pay for the next order of sorbeans.
sloybeans?
I'm getting confused.
sloylent gleen?
Do you think Brazil will charge a lot for soybeans?
A little dirty secret of China's exports. All Countries that start selling soy to China quickly discover that they are not allowed to continue if they don't start buying all kinds of trinkets made in China for an ever growing volume. Once the Chinese penetrate the corruption systems in those countries using the money flows to get the soy among other basic materials, they use those same connections and pressure points (they now have proof positive of who is corrupt, plust muscle in the Countries of interest), to force them to buy from China. Example in Argentina you can't possibly get spare parts for essential US or German made medical equipment that is out of order, or legitimate spare parts for luxury elevators (fakes are imported from Brazil with more than one big brand name -i.e. Mitsubishi elevator already coming down for this reason alone), but there is nothing Chinese that you can't get into the Country. Both Brazil and Argentina incorrectly thought they were going to be able to control the imports from China, but they both failed misserably for the reasons I just mentioned.
China's strategy is to send first the low level workers, then the muscle, then penetrate ALL strata of the societies, only after they have a good control -very low key- they start sending higher and higher level managers and start quietly buying basic resources and banks in the target Countries.
This superb peaceful conquest strategy now confronts the absolute mismanegemt of resources and infrastructure in those same Countries, again special examples are Venezuela and Argentina. Where the Chinese find themselves in a bind and entrapped, since there is no way they can get out, and the locals are fighting more and more for the little non-locally printed currency that they can get their hands on competing with the Chinese exporters that are having a harder and harder time by the minute despite all the corrupt linkages, since they can't get what is not there to get on the first place.
This is all getting progressively worse, and only remains afloat thanks to the Bernanke money printing machine the FED. Argentina and Venezuela are the canaries in the coal mine only because they have offended the banksters cast by not paying their debts and expropiating their monopolic companies. By the way, where you used to see big signs of HSBC in both Countries you now see signs of PBOC (People's Bank of China) litterally EVERYWHERE in latinamerica and who know where else.
Until next time,
Engineer
Interesting post. Thanks
Thanks for posting!
This, is why I am addicted to ZH. This kinda this. Awzom
Thanks also.
One small correction. You mean ICBC, not PBOC:
http://en.mercopress.com/2012/11/12/china-s-and-the-world-largest-bank-takes-control-of-argentine-institution
That link also shows that others make similar errors with China's alphabet soup of banks. They had a pic of a BOC rather than IBCB bank.
PBOC= Peoples Bank of China (central bank)
BOC= Bank of China (commercial bank, issues currency in Hong Kong (as do Standard Chartered and HSBC))
ICBC= Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
There are many others.
Yes, a very good post indeed... and what we see far too infrequently here... informed, boots on the ground commentary instead of sneering... fish in a barrel type snippy snipin... disguised as witticism.
The inroads which the Chinese banking sector are making outside of MSM media-monologue land are truly astounding. And foreboding. The West, of course, could have watched it's rivals with a tempered respect and interest... and perhaps learned how to counter some of their moves.
But it was easier to laugh... and sneer. Somewhat like the hare with tortoise.
One last note for 'farmboy' and his incessant line of reasoning...
the Chinese will soon nuff be able to forgo the pleasure of buying your USSA monsanto-beans... as they are aware that eating those beans means... sterility n stuff. Vast plantations of non GMO agricultural joint ventures in Afreaka spell the way forward for a world outside the ken of most of the jocular wordjockeys here.
It doesn't matter anymore.
Charles Stanley sermon says 'everyone does what they see fit' /USA.
Calls for conviction to those in authority/truth.
WOW.
Where is tinfoil with June six 2013 anyway?
Chinese growth is like the lamb skewers from street vendors; it's really rat.
It's like US unemployment. BS. The art of deception.
Too bad they cannot export those empty cities.
those empty buildings and cities tell the tale of the mismanagement of currency creation V goods and services.
unfortunately, most bureaucrats are not well schooled.. and simularly most modern economists in positions of influence.
then again.. maybe those are future FEMA housing facilities :-D
The super rich there (i.e., Gubbermnint officials) are still raking in the loot...the average worker....not so much, is that I read.
The only real way to gauge trade is to look at shipping activity and transport rates.
china still has the tightest pussy in the world. the western whore is worn out. flat backing 24/7 since 1971 is hard work. europe and the usa have callouses where they should be tight warm and wet so have resorted to 20 dollar blow jobs to pay the rent.
china's got critical mass. they are the usa in the 50s, japan in the 70s. they are probably cheating on their invoices to buy gold.
when the west collapses the chinese will have to skip lunch. the west will have to boil their socks to make soup(after they try to make the rest of the world eat lead).
b,
SOOoo, you're bearish then...??!!
lol. it seems clear as day. russia, really putin and his cadres, have been patiently waiting to avenge the looting of russia during the prescribed collapse of russia. china has been leary since the 1997 takedown of the baht.
the west is obviously fighting for its financial life buried in a mountain of debt that is the historical indicator of sovereign failure. the only recourse is war(or so they think).
"china still has the tightest pussy in the world. the western whore is worn out. flat backing 24/7 since 1971 is hard work. europe and the usa have callouses where they should be tight warm and wet so have resorted to 20 dollar blow jobs to pay the rent."
Silly me, I first thought you were being metaphorical. Please elucidate on sampling technique...
Apparently you never visited south of Chicago in the 1970's where BJ's could be had for as little as $2. Some of the suppliers even had some teeth. I passed on the offers though, honest.
In 1970 $2.00 dollars was worth way more then $2.00 today. A dollar today is worth about .25 cents in 1970 money. Therefore a $2 dollar B.J. in 1970 is about $8.00 in today's fiat. That's still a good deal considering diseases were still curable with antibiotics in 1970. Nowadays...not so sure.
'Krugman' has been sticking his festering cock into the Western pussy for so long... it now is infected with his diseases
<<china still has....>>
You obviously have not had spicy Thai (noodle) recently.
besnook said:
Ah, ah, endeavorings avoidance Chinese citizenism crotch crickets diligently.
Bitchin Meta foreigners. Dude. I'm not sure when it's safe to quote you, but, i will
Seek the neccessary Autonomous Zones.
Chinese Growth - Real Or Imagined?........Real..NO....after re-education camp...YES.
Big fake wings. Push China out of the nest, see if she flies.
Push China out of the U.S. and European markets and watch Chicom leaders rush to their offshore bank accounts.
There is no end to Chinese bullshitism, when it comes to chartisms and truthisms. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2013-04/27/c_132345688.htm
That is indeed that, and somehow that is very something.
The offuscationalizing of the monolizing of the propagandizing means is very Chinese Citizenismistic, very crusty, the nib of the mattering thing.
Eternal nature of Sino-Eurolantic-Indopean-Antarctic hypolocrian mushroomatism is unmisportrayable.
Scuttle Buttin' & Say What?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuT9Q4VmR4E
Free Tibet!
I would reason that it's mostly imaginary gdp growth right now. Not negative, but certainly static.
"Over-invoicing" their customers is complete bullshit. That does not even begin to make sense to anyone who has been an export partner in China.
To know China's "REAL" #s just look at Australia's. Aussieland is a complete, deflationary, excess-capacity train-wreck. China absolutely CANNOT be "doing well"...!! Mathematically impossible..!!
China is PEFECTLY summed up as; "Rat-for-Lamb"...that says it all..!!
One way or another it is going to be organic growth because the banksters stole everyone's money in the US and Holder has created anarchy instead of prosecuting them. So unless China is going to hold the world banking families accountable its a return to Top Ramen dinners for them too. Aah who cares once Damascus goes its the end of world. So let it be written so let it be done.
This chart looks more like The Sum Tings Wong index.
The latest data included intangibles, associated made-up veritable nonsense as well as seasonal and sophistmetric adjustments
I don't know. I think we're in pretty good shape since we got Penny Pritzker at the wheel.
She's a bundler of joy.
"China's recent trade data does not pass the smell test."
Hell, nothing in this rigged financial game passes the smell test any more.
So the Lamb meat was real?
USSA is so fucking perfect. Look at the BLS and the Jobs reports. Sums it all up the whole fucking thing is a scam
Chine exports to HK devided by HK imports from China .... hmmmmm
Where is the difference ?
difference is who reports them.
What's the problem, you don't think x/x = 2 makes sense?
Spot-on comments.
The P.R.C. is too large and its leadership's machinations too occult and centralized to believe anything whatsoever that the Party reports. Really, it is just childlike to even begin to think in terms of transparency in the same sentence with the Party.
Their leadership is unopposed and the Lao Bai Shin are willing sheep, easily distracted.
The Party is 100 % successful in 1984-style control.
The P.R.C. envys the U.S. for its IRS and credit/tax withholding web; and our leaders envy the Party for their central control and brute ability to move men and materiel any direction they choose without opposition.
This is why the Senate wishes so hard to confiscate privately owned weapons.
The model is full spectrum dominance and control of the resources. The U.S. is hastening to achieve it before the oil lines start to sputter. It is actually too late and the failure of the latest gun-grab legislation was crucial in keeping a modicum of hope alive in the U.S. among free men.
But from that standpoint China is a lost cause. Their people were disarmed long ago.
But from that standpoint America is a lost cause. Their people are being disarmed today.
you'd be surprised how willing the chinese are to riot in large masses. something i doubt the US would do.
that is their "arms".
Lynyrd Skynyrd ? That Smell @ Live 720p HD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAMTXnh2O9M
You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe.
China lies. Obviously. They are evil communists/collectivists.
They are definitely and factually not going to be a world power due to their demographics.
They are raising minimum wage requirements. Big mistake (manufacturing will move, actually is moving, to places where plenty of people will work for $5/day... Vietnam, Burma, India, etc.)
The future is India. That will be the next real super power. They are the only ones with the demographics for it. Once they get their infrastructure in (which they are working on) manufacturing will move there. 500M people willing to work for $5/day and who most all speak English. It's a no brainer.
the politics in india...is hardly congruent.
In socialist Amerika, the numbers are hard to believe. The Communists in China would never let the outside world investigate their figures. There is no precedence for central planning to produce near perfect economic growth year after year.
Chinese Growth - Real Or Imagined?
Cannot understand a person who questions China a country with 3 Trillion in Foreign Reserves and ignore the imaginary growth in the US who has 17 Trillion in Debt. When you are sitting on 3 trillion is reserves, versus a printing press, which country do you think has a better chance to weather the storm and come out ahead? Time to look in your own back yard and start to question this regime in DC and Ben Bernanke!
MFLTucson
Who has a better chance to weather the storm? Well, China is sitting on 3T in foreign reserves which are mostly USD. The trade they are doing, using their own currency and gold, between some of their suppliers is minor. The USD rules. The USA is holding them and most all other countries hostage due to this. We've got the biggest financial markets, the biggest economy, the largest government debt offerings, and still remain the main destination when there is a flight to safety, and we are the world reserve currency. The USA can make China's 3T worthless. China and its export model is totally screwed if the USA and Europe stop importing their goods (and the Western debt load and deleveraging is already slowing down this import volume). China is totally dependent upon the USA in many ways. The USA is a dying empire but it still has the power, is still king of the hill and will remain so for a long time. It's amazing how long a failing empire can go when it has a printing press, the largest currency, the reserve currency, the most powerful military, fiscal policy based on slight of hand, creative accounting techniques, and so on. Did you ever try to approach an animal that was wounded, in pain, and dying? The wild animal reaction always accompanies desperation and the clinging to life and power.
As Mao once said: "Every Communist must grasp the truth, political power grows out of the barrel of a gun"; and not from fiat based 'reserves' or 'debt'.
That's like a perfect export bubble pattern. What's the easiest way to short chinese exports?
In this market the fundamentals don't matter. Be prepared to get your face ripped off if you plan to short it.
as aapl goes so goes china.
Just sign on the bottom line we will fill in the blanks with our facts later.
Makes sense to me, I bet Hong Kong taxes based on stated value, so importers lie, mysteriously those same goods get revalued again before they get unloaded in the US so much so most importers aren't making any profits at all-at least on paper