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Implied Assumptions
Authored by Charles Gave of GK Research, a Gavekal Company,
Financial markets operate on a number of implied assumptions about growth, policy direction and other factors. Experience tells us that these assumptions often turn out to be erroneous. The goal of this paper is simply to test the rationality of the current set of assumptions.
Assumption #1: Central bankers know what they are doing. Comment: This is the victory of hope over experience. Most central bankers do not even understand what money is (at least in its deeper economic sense. See Blind Men Looking At Money).
Assumption #2: Central banks are in the middle of a totally new monetary experiment. Comment: True. The problem with new-fangled approaches is that the protagonists by definition have little idea about the long-term consequences of their actions.
Assumption #3: Low or negative real rates favor economic growth, and by suppressing or manipulating the price of money the central bankers can achieve happy results. This is another way of saying they are competent central planners, and that a capitalist economy works better without a market-determined price of money. Comment: Negative real rates and competitive devaluations always lead to a collapse in the velocity of money and from there to a structural decline in the economic growth rate (see Obsessed With Negative Real Rates). They also result in increased social inequality and from there to a breakdown of the prevailing social contract.
Assumption #4: An increase in the quantity of money leads pushes up asset prices (another way of saying that central banks are able to control or manipulate asset prices). Comment: The value of an asset is equal to a stream of income discounted by a risk-free interest rate. If the asset has a very short duration, the central bank can manipulate the discount rate to artificially inflate its value while the expected return does not change much. But if the asset has a very long duration, the market participants will know that the discount rate is manipulated and they will NOT know how much of those expected returns result from the manipulation of interest rates. The upshot is that they will not be able to compute the present value of those expected returns. The result of this market dissonance is that capital spending will shrink, productivity will crater and growth will decline.
Assumption #5: A rise in asset prices always leads to an economic recovery (wealth effect). Comment: True if the rise in asset prices is justified by an increase in the citizenry’s median income. Not true if it is a bubble engineered by the central bank to bail out the commercial banks, and if the median income goes down, as it is in the US today and everywhere in Southern Europe. This is certainly the most dangerous assumption of all because the market is vulnerable to the sudden realization that the central banks are in fact naked in their attempt to resist the tide impacting asset prices.
Assumption #6: An increase in the money supply accompanied by a rising budget deficit together with negative real interest rates will boost economic growth. Comment: This idea has become almost ubiquitous even though economic history shows it is a fallacy that has been consistently proven wrong.
Assumption #7: GDP is a good measure of economic growth. Comment: When the output of a market economy and a nonmarket economy are co-mingled the effect is to muddle apples and oranges (see GDP As A Concept: Misleading If Not Outright Criminal). GDP targeting is as stupid as targeting the unemployment rate, which will lead to a collapse in the participation rate.
Assumption #8: Investors do not need to fully understand what is happening—they should just keep an eye on the actions of central banks and governments, and invest accordingly. Comment: This approach implies a belief that central banks and governments know what they are doing do (see point #1); secondly it assumes there cannot be unexpected—read negative—results. Just in case any of our readers really believe this, I happen to know of a New York bridge whose exclusive use I’m sure could be negotiated for a reasonable price.
Assumption #9: I do not believe in assumption #8, but since everybody else does, I have to invest accordingly and will be smart enough to get out in time. Comment: Congratulations, and good luck.
Assumption #10: Debt does not matter as long as the central bank keeps buying it by printing money, and this printing exercise will have no consequences. Comment: This authorizes government spending to grow without limit. This has hardly been conducive to economic growth in the past since the first action of every government with unlimited access to money will be to prevent the disruptive part of the creative destruction process, thus preventing any creation. This always leads to economic stagnation as predicted by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter.
Assumption #11: Competitive devaluations are reflationary. Comment: Unfortunately, the historical experience of beggar-thyneighbor devaluations is that they are always deflationary, especially in a world where international trade is no longer expanding.
Assumption #12: Central banks can generate inflation by printing money and control it afterwards. Comment: In the long run central banks struggle to control anything. Inflation over the long term depends more on the velocity of money than on what a central bank does. This is really a slightly more refined version of assumption #1 - and about as credible.
Conclusion
A modern economy is an incredibly complex entity that involves millions of transactions every day. The notion that this vast and largely self-governing system can be controlled through tools such as government spending and/or an increase in the quantity of money is - to say the least - bizarre. A flood is rarely a cure-all solution to a drought; it just creates new problems for an already suffering population.
From 2002 to 2007, we witnessed a massive attempt by central banks to manipulate interest rates and currency exchange rates. The consequences of this action came due in 2008-2009. Criminal psychologists have long known that villains frequently return to the scene of their crime—in the case of western policymakers, they seem to be looking to finish off a caper that went badly wrong at the first attempt. The end result for the broader community is unlikely to be pretty.
Investment conclusions
My bet is that this effort at control-engineering the economy will fail, but of course I cannot know this for sure, nor can I state precisely how and when the unwind will materialize. The solution is to generally move out on the risk-reward frontier and seek assets that will do well in either eventuality—such investments we sought to identify in our last Quarterly.
- Focus on economies that either i) have an undervalued currency (e.g., the US), or ii) are seeing an aggressive devaluation on the road towards a more fairly valued currency (e.g., Japan or the UK). Conversely, one should sell assets in currencies with little depreciation potential (e.g., Korea).
- It also makes sense to own shares in companies that are exposed to the ongoing transformation in China and that can leverage on the rising demand for consumer goods and services (e.g., high end European exporters, see Europe And The Chinese Consumer).
- At the riskier end of the spectrum, we would recommend a mix of Japanese and UK exporters, good quality US blue chip companies and some strong brand-name European exporters that have a large exposure to emerging markets.
- We also have a strong preference for dim sum bonds since we know that transforming the renminbi into a credible, globally traded currency is a key priority for China’s leadership, and this simply won’t happen unless the RMB is strong. This is why dim sum bonds continue to deliver steady returns with very low volatility.
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Just declare the Fed is using a "Game Changer" and bomb them. Works for Israel.
These assumptions will be the downfall of many that follow the herd.
http://marcfabersblog.blogspot.ca/
He has some valid points, but the conclusions astound me, invest in paper and currencies, HA HA, that will turn out well. Better to invest in farm land with water access and grow your own food and hunt your own game! If the Federal Govt comes after you for doing that, then there is really no hope anyway!
Get off the grid, and grind this bitch to a halt, starve the beast as best you can, that is the only way to do this without a physical fight. It may one day come down to that if the mongrels in DC keep up the Communism they practice and the easy money schemes they hatch.
Too many people are losing it right now, as the end of the line seems to be rapidly approaching. God help us all.
Assuming that you've thought it out, exactly what happens afterward? Free & fair market Nirvana, or back/forward to something we may not want: Feudalism?
If you think that we'll go back to an early Republic, I'd bet against it and hedge accordingly.
Hey Kito. Push it down this time, you fucking tool.
As RT further reports, during the attack, one Israeli jet was reportedly shot down by Syria's Air Force, according to Hezbollah's Manar TV channel, citing security sources in Damascus."
Hey (not so) Precious, would you mind putting a stop to hijacking EVERY thread here today with the same off-topic post?
Fuck off, idiot stick.
I'm not the one running around threadjacking every thread here with the exact same off-topic post, dipshit.
What a waste of time and space you are.
Aww. Then kick me off, thread boss.
Well, for one go back to a $ standard, be it land or gold, which would have to be revalued true enough. Remove all of the Constitutional killing laws EG: Obamacare, NDAA, Patriot Act, Dodd-Fwank, IRS, Fed Reserve, kill these departments DoE, DoE, EPA, DoI, DHS, and the like. So we would have value in $, freedom, and low regulation. Those are just a start...BTW, why not go back to Constitution where everyone could understand the laws? It worked for a good long time until the Progressive Communists ruined it!
Assumption #32
Earth is the biggest thing in the Solar System.
C'mon y'all. Take in all the data.
Gold. Pyramids. Paper. War. demi-Gods and Stars.
I lay it all out in my new video.
Don't rush to judgement until all the facts are in,
bitchez.
http://youtu.be/R2TTCOm1XRg
PS. Yes, Bernanke and Geithner play an important role.
alchemists are powerful, yo.
Whoa.
So you guys are big fans of
Timmy and the Bernank?
When did shit change around here?
Too many triple agents,
hard to keep your head on
straight around here,
yo.
The assumptions speak to "economy." The FED is not so much in the support the economy business as it is in the monetary business. They function as the direct supplier of un economic money provided almost free of charge to the government, foreign governments through their central banks and to the 25+ TBTF worldwide banksters.
That is its purpose and its reason for being. They have transended the economy and believe they can provide continuous money supply without it being earned in the real economy.
By definition, the only way to identify a bubble is after it has burst. When prices collapse suddenly and do not magically rebound, well, then you’ve had a bubble.
By definition then, we are not in a bubble, as per the FED.
This definition is a sophism. It is a manipulation of what is, in order to make it appear what it is not.
Of course we are in a bubble(s) now. Nothing has yet burst from the perspective of price.
But the bursting cometh.
Most interesting times, yet again.
Mr Tyler Durden, methinks some of these articles would be better posted as comments, as with most comments from most commentators, they don't tell us anything new, just another spin on what we know already.
Of course many/most articles are Op-Eds with graphics. But, as a thinking man, why do I need the publisher to label this for me, when a quick scan-read tells me this and more?
This may be an aside to Assumption #10, but the .gov deficit will indeed continually grow in size due to the interaction of social programs and their effect on actual criminal statistics.
This theorem implies that .gov subsidy of the lower classes of society reduces demand on local law enforcement, and effectively penalizes those that "color outside of the lines".
Cutoff the multiheaded social programs you say? Anarchy would probably be the least of our problems, and I'm not a proponent of .gov expansion, but consider the unintended consequences to be lesser palatable than the existing and ever increasing central bank investiture in ,gov expenditures of said social "services".
To me, there is no doubt this path we're on is a blind alley at the end, but the can will continue to be kicked until it reaches the endwall.
Venting makes you feel better so you should hit a finger with a hammer. Sounds much like some of these especially assumption #5.
assumption 0.0 Mass Economics is like Mass Entertainment. The Rolling Stones are doing a tour (who gives a crap, right) They go to LA or NY, and a few thousand people show up and applaud. The other 20 million stay home and mow the lawn. Those few thousand define the entertainment values for the rest of us. In statistical parlance the fans are a random sample, but a lot of people wouldn't go see the Stones if the tickets were free, or you paid them. Mass Economics/Enterainment is the sound of one hand clapping. It matters little if the economy works for you (you go looking for new music downloads there is a lot of stuff you don't care about, it all sounds the same) you will adjust your thinking to the products the market provides, whether its a Presidential candidates, the latest food craze, or other lame stream entertainment. Eventually you drop out (recall the 60's slogan, Tune in, Turn on, and Drop Out.) That is the final assumption, people now start to drop out of the economy. Does it matter to them, as long as there are a few thousand people working and paying taxes, (and applauding old farts playing rock and roll) probably not. Slowly the center disintegrates, just as Rome didn't collapse in a day.
The assumption is the Keynesian one. We can keep printing money and spending forever.
But even Keynes said that the debt has to be repaid when conditions improve. We never do that,
So, the infantile fantasy of "debt doesn't matter" will eventually crash the market.
"So, the infantile fantasy of "debt doesn't matter" will eventually lead to world war" - FIXED. History is very clear on this.
A lot of garbage on the hedge lately. It is real simple folks, that which cannot be sustained, won't be, and when fraud is the status quo, possession is the law. Get a dependable tribe in order, let the greedy fascists destroy themselves, not you and yours.
Plain and simple, LoP. I don't know about the rest of the country and the world, but here in California you don't have communities or neighbors - just strangers living next to each other and never giving a fuck. When shtf, I think we'll see for the first time in a long time the necessity for tribes to form and sustain themselves through trust, hard work, and maybe even love for one another.
That, or camp.
I assume you mean FEMA camp... I call top bunk!
I like your adherence to basic natural principles. But what's your position on what happens after the Big Reset (assuming it's a quick one)? A 1776 style Republic, regionalism, tribalism, feudalism?
You use the term 'tribe'. In what sense? Like the tribes of a country? Like Jews, Mormons or Baptists? The Afghan war lords preside over tribes, as do many parts of Africa. So, unless you elaborate, it can mean almost anything (hence, 'nothing').
Not quite done with your Ph.D. in philosphy are you? You are looking for something that does not exist. Life is hard, always has been and always will be and yes, a dependable tribe can in fact can be just about anyone, even employees. What it implies is a strong local support network. Same applies for "wealth" and "value", the meaning is up to you. The fact that you are hung up on religion speaks volumes. Please grow up and make your life what you want it to be or shut the fuck up.
"A modern economy is an incredibly complex entity that involves millions of transactions every day. The notion that this vast and largely self-governing system can be controlled through tools such as government spending and/or an increase in the quantity of money is - to say the least - bizarre."
Don't you mean millions of transactions per millisecond?
americans drive fewer miles, eat less food, require less living space, and have fewer children than they did twenty years ago. this causes a sense of panic at economics central, where the policy has been expansion through the exploitation of natural resources. the final resource was human labor and we are still getting some ore from that mine (stories about working conditions in Bangladesh are important confidence builders for the old economy, the mine isn't played out yet) and as you note milliions of transactions, thought of course they aren't real transactions, (HFT) which is just the market shadow boxing with itself in order to preserve the old asset values.
We are an empire now ... we create our own reality. Isn't that the credo of the US BLS?
nobody goes to a rock concert to boo the players in the band and nobody complains about the economy. if you don't like the show you stay home, work under the table, horde gold coins or expatriate yourself. [or hang out all day at Zerohedge] you're anti-economy then, there is no in between. you can't say i want a different economy, one that works this way or that way. just follow the applause, that's what CNBC does.
In America stability is not allowed...if the population stops growing they will have massive programs enticing even more Mexicans and Asians to immigrate.
America won't be happy until it overtakes India and China as the world's most populous country, even if it means misery for all. After all, more is always better!
lol gold bugs are so dumb
Wake me when it's back under $300 an ounce. That is the dollar cost average of my physical holdings. Funny thing is I never have a problem exchanging PMs for any fiat or someone else's labor. dumb indeed. So many paper promises, so little assets of real value...
As usual, junks with no replies, as there is simply nothing for these cowards to say. If you pay me in fiat, then devalue my fiat (steal my purchasing power), why would you think I wouldn't turn that paper promise into something real ASAP? Cowards.
What? List your portfolio then so we "Dumb goldbugs" can see how smart you are. Otherwise, shut the fuck up.
William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
THE SECOND COMING
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
First MDB and Krugman, and now Religion wrapped in poetry?
I look forward to red Tantra next, as it'd be more useful and certainly more fun. Alas, it does little for the MIC and its bankster bosses, except at 'special events', which they pay oodles for.
set to music.
Focus on economies that either i) have an undervalued currency (e.g., the US)
US debt is $16.84 trillion today and unfunded liabilities are 123.8 trillion today (together 447,000 per person) and they increase at $8.2 trillion a year ($26,000 per person). Why do you think that the US dollar is undervalued when there is no chance that US debts and unfunded liabilities can ever be paid off?
Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed gave essentially the same numbers I cite on a speech on May 28, 2008:
With a total population of 304 million, from infants to the elderly, the per-person payment to the federal treasury would come to $330,000. This comes to $1.3 million per family of four—over 25 times the average household’s income.
http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2008/fs080528.cfm
That which cannot be sustained, won't be.
why are we still saying that the central banks are 'fixing' the broken economy. they are simply printing money to give to the banks so that they can survive the coming collapse while everyone else sinks into the mud. this is theft not repair...........
Lookit, people are losing everything, have nothing to lose and are losing it, evidence you say? Watch:
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/05/04/ak-47-wielding-gunman-fires-37-times-at-shocked-cops-during-routine-traffic-stop/
This is just one more match to the already out of control fire that rages in the USSA!
And you have this other dude planning an armed march on DC on July 4th (openly on FB)...smells kinda fishy to me:
https://www.facebook.com/events/252728144871259/?ref=3
[Description]
On the morning of July 4, 2013, Independence Day, we will muster at the National Cemetery & at noon we will step off to march across the Memorial Bridge, down Independence Avenue, around the Capitol, the Supreme Court, & the White House, then peacefully return to Virginia across the Memorial Bridge. This is an act of civil disobedience, not a permitted event. We will march with rifles loaded & slung across our backs to put the government on notice that we will not be intimidated & cower in submission to tyranny. We are marching to mark the high water mark of government & to turn the tide. This will be a non-violent event, unless the government chooses to make it violent. Should we meet physical resistance, we will peacefully turn back, having shown that free people are not welcome in Washington, & returning with the resolve that the politicians, bureaucrats, & enforcers of the federal government will not be welcome in the land of the free.
You are welcome to attend unarmed as a supporter, or armed with a recording device.
If this page gets to 10,000 attendees by June 1st, & we have the critical mass necessary to pull this off, (1,000 actual attendees) we will march. Please spread the word, share this event, & invite all your friends.
- The evidence suggests that when the leadership allowed social media to flourish in the country, they also allowed the full range of expression of negative and positive comments about the state, its policies, and its leaders. As a result, government policies sometimes look as bad, and leaders can be as embarrassed, as is often the case with elected politicians in democratic countries, but, as they seem to recognize, looking bad does not threaten their hold on power so long as they manage to eliminate discussions associated with events that have collective action potential—where a locus of power and control, other than the government, influences the behaviors of masses of Chinese people. With respect to this type of speech, the Chinese people are individually free but collectively in chains. [How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression - Warning PDF]
Pay particular attention to stuff like Appendix B on automated Chinese text analysis. And remember: China usually copies its models from the West (or steals the code). If you need that translating, I suggest reading some stuff like this:The West doesn't censor collective active potential, it manufactures acceptable collective actions and ruthlessly expunges legitimate grass root actions and groups.
COINTELPRO
Top tip: Corporations pay better than the government, you do the math. And if you think they don't plan long term or this all happened "back in the bad old days"... think again (all UK examples, using the Graud for a reason):
Mark Kennedy - Police: eight years undercover in environmental groups, hired by US firm Densus
Mark Cassidy / Jenner - Police: six years undercover, fathered a child
Bob Lambert - Police: ten years undercover, "expert" on Islamophobia
And so on, and so forth. You'll notice these are the chump change end of the wedge, the plods in the common services.
Ask yourself why they don't get outed in the good old USA. They're playing chess, while norms are playing mud pies. What... you think the pros all retired once the Cold War ended?
That's cute.
Looney tunes stuff.
Try clarifying that a little: are you labeling my post "looney tunes stuff", or are you labeling the well documented and massive hidden State and Corporate control apparatus as "looney tunes stuff"?
I'll await your answer.
After a few hours, nothing: account is a rather shitty weaponized troll (name is ironic! so clevar) and doesn't deserve its pay. Fucking bargain basement effort there chaps.
Both. Maybe you should grab a firearm and head for the National Mall.
Ahh, I was hoping you were this stupid.
Take it up with Harvard (first link), a prestigious peer reviewed science journal (second link), US Congress House Committee report (third link) or the UK House of Parliament Commission (fourth, fifth, sixth link). Then look at the title of the thread: "Implied Assumptions", and the joke I was making. Maybe you should get a better grasp of reality yourself. Since you're unable to process the real world: Newsflash, it ain't what you learnt in school or got told by Fox News.
You're done here. Get a new account, the stupid is too much for your pitiful attempt to latch onto Ayn Rand's legacy. She was kinda into facts and objective thinking, remember? Unless you're merely shilling, which you're really not good at; I might be a little above your pay grade princess. If you're actually a serious poster: wake the fuck up, you need to learn how the world works, before it eats you up sugar fairy.
Ciao.
p.s. I might have mis-labeled the US / UK exact names of the commissions; who gives a fuck, it's a quick Google away, and on record as an actual real event.
A march through the National Mall and around the Capitol with firearms? Are you nuts? You can't even carry a firearm in your own neighborhood without being arrested, much less in downtown D.C. Anyone trying to participate in this supposed event will never make it across the bridge.
Reading comprehension -1
My apologies. I misread it as being promoted. It's still a nuts idea.
For central planners to say they can intricately control a massively complex system like the entire economy is just fucking bizarre. These are the same pricks who say they didn't even see the 2008 crash coming when it was only months away. All they really know how to do is to destroy an economy when they want.
They don't actually care whether they can control it or not.
What they're really concerned with is whether they can manipulate it sufficiently to make a consistent risk-free profit.
The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players.
The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
The markets will fall only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls
OR
When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
my vote's for the "unexpected world event" - a random bit o' chaos that no one was factoring into their realities. . .
The notion that this vast and largely self-governing system can be controlled through tools such as government spending and/or an increase in the quantity of money is - to say the least - bizarre
But to rid this country of those two artificial stimulants is a damn good starting point!
Since The End is always just around the corner, #9 is something to think about in terms of diversification of assets and revenue streams.
The world is a big place, and life and business will continue (outside the nigh bankrupt US). Depending on your risk profile and sophistication, this is a shrewd option. But for some/most, the Homesteading solution is probably the one to gravitate to.
The only outcome worse than failure of the propped-up world economy would be its success. If successful, no government will ever relinquish control over private markets, and we will live in a government-controlled NWO where every action and every thought becomes mandated. Politically correct thinking, hate crimes, and the stupidity of global warming as a "belief" rather than a scientific theory already point in that direction.
"My bet is that this effort at control-engineering the economy will fail"
And my bet is not only that you are right but that you will fail at effectively sewing disinformation by saying to remain in the crooked criminal game and keep playing. I say disinformation because some of your points make sense. Your conclusion on the other hand is ludicrous.
Feeding the psychopaths parasites currently in charge of this planet through participation is what allows this cancer to remain intact, grow and destroy us for their benefit. Why should someone want to invest overseas in countries filled with cheap slaves or in blue chip companies that knowingly poison us for profit through the use of those slaves? Because we can make more profit? WTF kind of logic and rationale is that except to play on the greed and stupidity of slaves and sheep.
When enough of us disconnect entirely, or as much as possible in order to still survive, we will starve the beast and weaken it enough to expel it from our collective body. If not, we will need to take the appropriate additional actions to purge it from our system. This could be painful and even dangerous because of the size of the current infestation. However, if we are successful this will bring invaluable returns on investment for all of us and the planet.
I have no products or services to sell. I have no credentials. My opinions are only intended to educate and inform those that are willing to learn in order to change the meme. Our gain will at least be mutual if not collectively greater by our mutual attainment of freedom and independence. Our individual efforts and investments will return compound interest and dividends directly and indirectly to us, our families and those around us. If you don't believe me I encourage you to do your own cost benefit analysis. Or feel free to continue on the path of the current societal meme and we will find out soon enough that costs far outweighs benefits to each of us. This will include but not be limited to mass death and destruction, if not extinction.
Conclusion:
1. Buy land (obtain allodial title if it is even still possible)
2. Own a controlled source of water
3. Grow your own food with heirloom or non GMO seeds
4. Buy guns and ammo because criminals and tyrants will seek to return you to slavery and you will need to protect your freedom
5. Harness your own energy for power needs
6. Seek to engage others in this lifestyle. Support and defend each other
7. Barter and trade for what you need outside of the existing economy
8. Educate yourself, your family and others. Be sure to include critical thinking as a core concept.
9. Cut off all avenues of revenue that feed the current system. If forced to engage with it ensure the maximum penalty is paid by it by draining it of the most resources and energy that you can.
10. Engage in any way legally possible within the current system that will drain it of its power, influence and hold on society.
Who's assumptions are these?
The fed may have noticed that the market moved every time they took a certain action in the short term and got the idea that they could guide and control the market long term by repeating the same stunt. You can goad a bull with a cattle prod and it will move away every time but you never know what it's next move will be. You hope that he will not turn around and gore you. You mess with a bull, you might get the horn.