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Flat In May, No Dismay
The last few years have seen very similar trajectories in the first (and second) quarters of the year. Typically Q1 has been extremely bullish but has had a moment (or two) of doubt that caused weakness that inevitably bought. In fact, while many look on at 2013 as an outlier year (which it is over the entire quarter), since it's early March lows 2013 is lagging the performance of markets on average the last few years, even as Treasuries follow very similar seasonal paths. Over time, the sell-in-May-and-go-away' truism has become more pronounced (as we explained recently from a causation perspective) but the following chart shows that no matter how excited we were in each year in the first four months of the year, May (alone) has not been a good month...
2013 has been a banner year for the first four months... but seasonals are not in its favor...
and in fact, off the March lows, 2013 has been lagging previous post recovery years...
But Treasuries appear to following the seasonals extremely closely...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Slightly OT, but this made me puke:
No bank’s too big to fail, there should be bankruptcy for all: Mike Cavanagh, JPMorgan
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/no-banks-too-big-...
Bernanke, Draghi, Carney...
You know what to do. Follow Kuroda. Save the world.
No pun intended, but we are in uncharted waters at this point. As expected, CB asset purchasing has metastacized beyond discrete events into a steady-state, perma-punchbowl reality. There is no precedent for how the "markets" should (or will) behave in this environment. Only that eventually the piper will be paid and in the meantime, the code-brown banks will use the unending liquidity to forge whatever narrative keeps them alive longest.
"...we are in uncharted waters at this point."
When this is over and the survivors in caves consider what happened, they will realize that "What Happened" was what happened before.
"If I call a dog's tail a dog's leg, how many legs does a dog have?"
Answer: Four. Calling a dog's tail a leg doesn't make it a leg.
Good post mayhem_korner.
I've got my cave staked out. Have you?
CW
OT: there goes the neighbourhood!
hey wait,wheres the plunge predicted by Durdens? the market didnt even retrace 1% from the highs,not even 0,5% but the bears are hoping:)
Bears will get squeezed and fooked again.In fact,Durdens is my favorite bear juice.
Tyler in Dec 2013 : Stocks plunged most in 7 months as unwinding continues - dows down 5% from 17,000 to 16,250 over 5 Days as bloodbath continues.LOL.
Nice, these predictable patterns. Thanks people for following these patterns like sheep every year. It gives me a nice opportunity to make some easy money trading cfd's.
Channel up since November in the SP500 - as Q1 GDP completely misses.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-daily-1-breaking-1600-q1-gdp-miss...
Macros don't see to matter - trade the technicals and ignore reality.
Something in May... uhm... hey hey... hey?
So... well, anyway.
going away in may is kinda gay i dismay. to stay and play, and eventually pay is the way i say.........or not.(sarc-joke-attempt @ poetry, i'm sorry, etc.- please no downers)