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French Industrial Production Confirms Hollande's Triple-Dip Fears

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2013 08:32 -0400

French industrial production came in considerably lower than expected overnight. France's output fell 2.5% YoY against an expectation of a mere 1.4% drop and manufacturing production dropped 4.9% YoY - almost its worst since the crisis. This data confirms what we have discussed in detail (here and here) that France is heading for a depression. After the briefest of renaissances in Q3 2012, the Gallic nation now looks set for a triple-dip recession, further stretching the core of an already tense European Union. The last few days have seen 10Y French debt yields increase a little (+17bps off the lows) but they remain (much as the rest of Europe) near record lows.

Charts: Bloomberg

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Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:34 | 3537076 madbraz

Someone tell that to their bond market, where the 30yr Btan is trading at 2.83%, some 15 bps lower than our 30yr. What a joke.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:47 | 3537109 idea_hamster

Marasme-a-trois, especes de garces!

(Feel free to add accents as needed.)

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:44 | 3537306 JPM Hater001

ok,

You know when you drive a wealthy business owner out of a country remember, it's their ball and they'll probably take it...to their new home.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:56 | 3537144 Josephine29

Perhaps the French bond market is pricing in the recessionary effects of the latest car registration/sales figures for France.

Car sales

We see that this area has been under depressionary rather than recessionary pressure in 2013 so far.

In April 2013, with 157,859 registrations, the French market for passenger cars is down 5.2% on a reported basis and 9.7% on a comparable number of working days from April 2012.

In the first four months of 2013, with 591,741 registrations, the French car market new passenger was down 12.3% on a reported basis

If we look for the effect on the main French manufacturers we see that Peugeot Citroen has really suffered with registrations down by 17% in 2013 so far but that Group Renault has done better falling by 7.5%. Neither offers much cheer to French economic prospects.

At best we are seeing a decline in the rate of fall but these were unlikely to continue for long at that rate as the series has been in decline for several years now.

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/how-much-longer-will-fra...

At some point the French authorities will have to start to tell the truth...It wont be pretty!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:07 | 3537161 THE DORK OF CORK

@Josephine29

But UK car sales are up..........April sales have returned back to april 2008 levels.

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2013/05/growth-continues-in-april-new-car-market/

Both countries are importing more then they are exporting which is in the national (banking) interest.

If you want to industrialize there is no other way.

France is engaged in the biggest rail programme ever seen.............this requires a shit load of oil for all those dumper trucks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSEeLyLWVww

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:44 | 3537305 Dutch Knight

I only see american machinery

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:49 | 3537327 Clayton Bigsby

Moar taxes! Moar "public servants"!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:43 | 3537079 SheepDog-One

Huh, I guess this must be why all indexes have incredible boners and set to open at new all-time highs?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:45 | 3537110 negative rates

Hope there is still funding for that triple dip nuclear boner.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:51 | 3537124 SheepDog-One

Apparently they sell gold to buy stawks every day...hell I don't know, I'm not a Maniacal Monetizer Central Bankster, just a 'muppet' out here watching the clownshow.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:52 | 3537337 Rory_Breaker

Indices are powered by hot air. They got nothing to do with fundamentals.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:36 | 3537082 jubber

..and CAC at new 2y High

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:38 | 3537085 Yellowhoard

France is entering a depression?

Buy! Buy! Buy!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:43 | 3537100 Rainman

You got it ! ......a triple dip recession is really a depression dressed up in camo. Moar printing, please ?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:45 | 3537108 GetZeeGold

The future is always bright in Zimbabwe.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:52 | 3537339 Rory_Breaker

And everyone is a billionaire

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:51 | 3537086 THE DORK OF CORK

Manufacturing production is dropping but if it can continue to import external goods like the Uk - it can continue its fixed capital dream projects.

Net Imports subtract from GDP but they add to net wealth at other nations expense.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FRAGFCFQDSNAQ

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GRCGFCFQDSMEI

It requires a huge amount of external capital (oil) to build the private Tours to Bordeaux high speed line.

If you can't get enough and really want your toys- then you must destroy other nations.

http://www.sudouest.fr/2013/04/29/la-lgv-tient-l-objectif-2017-1039069-706.php

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:38 | 3537089 _ConanTheLibert...

Merdre!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:38 | 3537090 Wolf in the Wilds

and the spread of their bonds to Germany is near 3 year tights. Go figure.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:40 | 3537092 pods

Can't the French just promise some more production?

That will fix things.

pods

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:55 | 3537349 Rory_Breaker

If only there was an ETF each for everything from stapler pins to Maybachs. We could print as many as we like.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:44 | 3537104 fonzannoon

Upon hearing this bad news, apparently France just sold all their gold pre market on no volume. Poor guys.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:45 | 3537107 JustObserving

Another massive selloff in gold and silver. This is getting to be a regular feature. With HFT and compliant regulators, you can move markets any way you want.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:55 | 3537113 GetZeeGold

It's just Ben Shalom freaking out. I'm sorta hoping he can take it to zero.

So is he......your grandkids will get the bill.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:46 | 3537111 mayhem_korner

Do the French actually produce anything useful - I mean, besides crepes and Bordeaux (if you even want to count those)?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:52 | 3537130 Bearwagon

Indeed they do: "Global leader in nuclear energy" - AREVA

http://www.areva.com/

I wish they wouldn't.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:06 | 3537170 mayhem_korner

Awwww-sum. A country that cannot run a clean bike race, that cannot grasp the game of baseball, and whose only notable figure in the 20th century was a 6-foot, (presumably) female chef who was not even born there - leads the world in tinkering with centrifuges?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:11 | 3537184 Bearwagon

Spooky, isn't it?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:17 | 3537193 ParkAveFlasher

Perfume. The French make perfume.

No really, that stuff is gold in a bottle, or at least silver. Think $30/oz packaged very nicely, advertised by beautiful models. The cost of goods may be $8/3.4oz, charge the insecure female customer $90/3.4oz. It's a beautiful business. TRUST ME.

But, that industry is going away from France as well. It's gone by 2015.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:55 | 3537350 Dutch Knight

Yes france is strong in agriculture ( oeps, heavely subsidized by europe )

they make a few plaines ( airbus )

the top of the line Citroen C6 discontinued in december 2012, while germany beat all recordes

mercedes, bmw, rolls-roys, bently, lamborghini, seat, audi, volkswagen, porsche, skoda and BUGATTI are all german brands

people worldwide are willing to pay more for erman quality.

France will kill the european dream, wake up

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:48 | 3537116 SheepDog-One

Pretty crazy to realize about the only way to lose over the last couple years was to buy gold and silver.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:51 | 3537126 GetZeeGold

Just better hope you have some in the next couple years.

If someone hands you some....I'd hang onto it.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:54 | 3537137 mayhem_korner

You didn't lose if you didn't sell it. ;)

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:56 | 3537148 GetZeeGold

Welcome to the all the marbles game....you're gonna get one shot at this.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:41 | 3537292 SheepDog-One

Um, yea well that's the story I keep hearing anyway...If you just buy and hold you'll be richly rewarded, later....I'm not so sure there will be a place to cash in gold and silver when the shit really implodes though, or if it will be banned outright.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:59 | 3537361 GetZeeGold

A freezer full of beef might be a better investment in this economy. Should double it's value in the next year.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:50 | 3537121 Impoverished Ps...

Only logical reason for this :- it's all priced in, bail-ins, debt pooling, mass pan european bank unifications etc etc until the whole eurozone is one giant economic prison with citizen assets the backstop.

Anyone fancy a trip on my boat? bring your bullion I promise no accidents could possibly happen.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:54 | 3537135 Dr. Engali

French industrial production? You mean the French make things? Wonders never cease to amaze me.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:57 | 3537150 CheapBastard

I thought "Triple Dip" meant chocolate, vanilla and strawberry?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:01 | 3537158 BeetleBailey

Fuck the French.

Thanks for posting.

I needed to swear at something this morning. The wine, cheese and douche country that is used as an excuse for swearing is a fine choice.

Fuck 'em.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:03 | 3537160 Dr. Engali

Off topic...but why in the fuck does Yahoo feel the need to have a story a day about that old fuck buffet?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:05 | 3537167 BandGap

Look back over the entire week, it's been nonstop during that time period. Even his second in command got airtime for some bullshit about not being a "tweeter". They are giving away some sort of trip to meet with him and bask in his glory. What a fucking joke.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:06 | 3537173 GetZeeGold

Yahoo is the new Pravda.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:17 | 3537192 fonzannoon

Doc take a break from Buffet and take this actionable advice from this fine gentlemen at marketwatc.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/9-steps-to-surviving-the-financial-apocalypse-2013-05-01?link=mw_home_kiosk

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:25 | 3537227 Dr. Engali

You've got to be kidding me? That's what they call sound expert advice?What a fucking joke. They might as well have let a monkey write that piece....or Jim Cramer same difference.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:41 | 3537288 Oldwood

And what if you want to be secure without being invested in the criminal financial markets. I would still like to think I have principles (even though I know I am fully compromised)

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:08 | 3537179 the not so migh...

Triple dip, quad dip, octo dip , etc etc

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:15 | 3537190 THE DORK OF CORK

People don't get the scale of these projects.

its a waste of money in my book ( France should bring back its rural branch lines previously destroyed to finance these mega projects) but it is now sucking in the previous resource rations of other nations.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmqArnGtBJI

Its a natural consequence of the european banking system scaling up beyond national borders.

Just like the previous union which Ireland joined - we were pushed into surplus so that the special people and areas get the goods.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:21 | 3537208 thismarketisrigged

these markets around the globe do not trade on any fundementals anymore. its all free money, that is it. its not 90 percent fed and 10 percent fundementals, its 100 percent free money from central banks, and ZERO FUNDEMENTALS.

it is beyond sickening. look at the fucking nikkei. why the fuck was the nikkei up fucking 486 pts yesterday, good for a 3.56 percent gain? why fucking why?

why the fuck is all of europe, despite a major slowdown in pmi, gdp, unemployment rising, everything is shit, yet european markets are hitting all time highs.

then we get the biggest fucking joke of them all, the dow jones industrial avg, which no matter fucking what, every day is fucking green. we can go green for 3 months straight with no selling, yet 1 day of red, must be matched by 3 months straight of green.

its comical, and me personally, anyone who is participating in this ponzi scheme of a market, whether its u.s markets, asian markets, european markets, i will have no pity for them when they lose their money.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:43 | 3537304 Oldwood

Because production does not pay the bills anymore. The Casino IS the only game in town. Nobody gives a fuck about the cards or who owns the casino, they are just staring into the eyes of their opponent across the table.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 15:32 | 3538471 StychoKiller

Two-word anwser to yer questionz: Quantitative Easing.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:24 | 3537219 andyupnorth

Time to invade Mali again? /s

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:28 | 3537239 bustdrs

Re, the latest gold smash......
Every time it happens I wonder if the Pheonix Powers numbers are right?
They dwarf the "reputed" 8500 MT held by the, apparently,, largest CB holder.
Who's got what and how's it coming out. Could 100 000mt (at times through his book he quotes much more) be a small number of Metric Tonnes plundered and recovered from WW2?
Certainly, the Chinese are prepared to buy back at reasonable prices what was probably theirs before ww2.
Too much? Have another Shiraz? Ah, probably not, it's only tooosday.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 12:40 | 3537742 Floodmaster

Citroen, Peugeot, and Renault are more advanced than Chrysler, Ford and GM.75% of France electricity is from nuclear,they are high-speed trains, satellites, aircraft (air bus) manufacturer and big in pharmaceuticals ..... not too bad for a California + Texas pop. with a socialist system. Aging Demographics will bring manufacturing consumption to never seen lows.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 13:32 | 3537969 W T F II

Thank GOD they got through the austerity phase relatively in tact...!!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 13:52 | 3538048 Aegelis

French dips sound delicious, I'll get some prime rib for the au jus.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 15:45 | 3538523 mkkby

At least the French are smart enough not to work themselves to death like us dumb fuck 'Mericans. And when angy THEY ALL go on stike until the authorities back down. Gotta respect that.

Bring on the depression so the reset comes sooner. Just get balances greater than 100k out of banks.

French Industrial Production Confirms Hollande's Triple-Dip Fears

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