Mission Accomplished 3.0: Dow 15,000 Close

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We made new all-time highs in stocks (easy); corporate and sovereign credit risk has been crushed to pre-crisis levels (passe); but the big kahuna was signalled today as we 'closed' above Dow 15,000 giving the red light to millions of the investing public that the water's warm (and asset-gatherers hungry). It seems no news is the best news (better than bad news and way better than good news) as for the 18th Tuesday in a row, we close green. The Dow Industrials may grab the headlines but the Dow Transports is up a mind-numbing 5.1% from Friday's NFP print (with the rest of the majors up a mere 1.7% or so). But... volume was below average; the 'most-shorted' names actually underperformed; VIX closed notably green; on-balance-volume was not supportive; credit markets pulled back notably today; JPY carry was not at all supportive today; and Treasury yields stalled their rise in the last hour.

Trannies are ridonculous...

 

but the security-to-slap-happy rotation is clear...

 

But - it was hedged hard this afternoon...

 

and credit wasn't buying this ramp...

 

and Treasuries didn't follow through this afternoon...

 

ands the shorts actually had an up-day - 'most shorted' names actually closed in the red and weren't forced to another squeeze/cover...

 

as it seems the forced cover has 'normalized' for now...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Bonus Chart: Reminder from last night - the credit bubble...


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Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:19 | 3538614 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Yes but in nominal terms that's...oh wait...90% of the folks don't know what nominal means. Never mind.
;-)

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:20 | 3538623 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

in nominal terms gold is now a thousand bucks off it's inflation adjusted high. But that makes sense, unlike stocks, since there is no inflation.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:24 | 3538637 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

STAWKS are the only asset class left for the +5% to preserve their perceived pseudo wealth..

 

DOW is going to 20K..  There is no other way to preserve the wealth / power for the elite.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:26 | 3538640 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit, plenty of island tax-havens left holding onto "the elites" wealth.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:31 | 3538663 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Like Cyprus? 

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:37 | 3538681 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/29/billionaires-flee-tax-haven...

There are $32 trillion dollars looking for a new home... looks like Mitt got out (back) just in time!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:42 | 3538696 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If there is any truth to this, hyperinflation is not far off.  I won't hold my breath.  I'll see your 32 trillion and raise it to 800 trillion in CDS/derivatives.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:42 | 3538701 HobbyFarmer
HobbyFarmer's picture

Personal experience here: dot-com era was so exciting!  People were talking about investments, 401k, retirement plans, hot stocks, stock market buzz, etc.  Fast forward to 2006-09: People were talking about how bad things were, retirement plans/investments were put on hold, stocks were decimated: people were talking!

Today? Nobody around me talks about the stock market.  I do not remember the last conversation I had or overheard about stocks/401k/investments.  Honestly, a couple years???  (besides what I read/type on ZH).

I believe everybody knows it's a joke, a fake, a broken/manipulated market....  Didn't I see that CNBC viewership was at all time lows (a month ago)?

Ever been to a child's birthday party and seen the birthday child "win" some contest.  All the adults know it's a rigged game and so when the child enthusiastically runs around the room looking for praise and is met with a muted response or no eye contact or silence the child realizes something wasn't quite right.  Bad analogy, maybe, but I see a lot of no eye-contact and hear a lot of deafening silence about this market.  My guess is a birthday child tantrum (like a child high on sugar and disappointment) is coming.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:49 | 3538719 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I have an aquaintance at JPMorganChase who works as a Wealth Management Advisor.  He is very candid re. his opinion that this ongoing episode is a rigged event.  He expresses no confidence re. the US markets aside from massive Fed pumping.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 19:50 | 3539178 Precious
Precious's picture

Thank you Fiscal Cliff.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:48 | 3538706 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Ha! Over 90% of those derivatives net out over the world's top dozen financial institution.

The $32T shuffle is basically due to the stripping of ownership privacy and the finacial hardships of the cash/asset hosting nations. Seems a little forthcoming asset stripping in the form of new taxation thats gotten the money a little nervous these days and warm water destinations are thus becoming a little too warm for comfort...

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:49 | 3538718 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

$30+trillion in orbit will descend pretty quickly when it has no refuge but the wall safe, and it will descend upon real goods of real value or be cast into the fire.

Long wine, women, and song.  And, gold.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 10:45 | 3541038 fiatmasochist
fiatmasochist's picture

Thanks for the link...by going down this rabbit hole, she explains the potential for WWIII to me via 'begger thy neighbor' policy and the impetus to have a gold standard global bank (BRICS)....you helped w/my education. Leaves me w/ the image of inflating ES as a huge Hoover sucking up all hard assets via paper proxy.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:19 | 3538618 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

If only George Carlin was alive to comment.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:23 | 3538635 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Feel like Bill Murray on Feb 2nd.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:39 | 3538687 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

I know exactly what you mean

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:20 | 3538624 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Ben can create a bid, but he can't create value.

Shit's getting real.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:22 | 3538625 Rainman
Rainman's picture

It's working ....they're herding into the showers....let the muppet holocaust begin !

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:21 | 3538626 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

Make money from home using your own fractional reserve account to invest in the stock market from home.  I earned $583 an hour going long NFLX and HLF.  Find out more at F E D E R A L R E S E R V E . G O V

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:25 | 3538632 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Called up Uncle BSB today, and he said I should seriously consider going all in, as this is a once in a lifetime oppotunity.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:24 | 3538638 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Go ahead, let the treasuries go bidless, please, I want to watch heads explode in CONgress.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:27 | 3538643 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Trannies are ridonculous.  The now illiquid IYT serves only to convince the laziest fund managers and crapiest code writers that the DOW is going higher, higher, higher.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:43 | 3538702 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

I have been trying to short iyt But it unavailable

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:44 | 3538705 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Short FDX tomorrow on an up open instead.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:27 | 3538645 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Sometimes I feel this will never end. They buy NFLX AMZN and sell gold and silver. By the time this correction is over the only ones left will be us here at Zero Hedge and a few others who understand what is actually going on. But most will be left out in the cold. Sad but true. 

Oh, by the way. One recent post mentioned he is down 50% on shorting this broken market..... Well I am down just as much being long miners. Not giving in. At some point the turn will be quite noticeable. Never touch my physical.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 17:22 | 3538818 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

That was me short since Oct 3rd 2011, the exact day the rally started. I think I spent 5k on some spxu and its worth $1400 now? I'll take the loss next tax year if this miracle market keeps going. I haven't made a trade since that day, I save my money in the Bank of China RMB denominated savings account and have made a nice 3.57% increase on arbitrage along with the whooping .1% they are paying in interest. I cash the checks I get from my rental property and stash it in case there is a 2 week bank holiday here like in  Cyprus.

It has been wierd. Lehman went down fast, as planned, , but all this other shit moves in slow motion. This rally was great for people that didn't freak and pull their money out of their 401k accounts. They are probably even again.

We will never get our housing equity back again which means no collateral to borrow money. If I could just pull a nice move and pay off my student loan I might actually be able to retire someday. That loan is killing me. I throw $1000 a month at it slowly moves down. 

I am hoping the market will crash like 1932 all over again and spxu would go to $120/share.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 18:22 | 3538989 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Contrary to conventional wisdom, miners will not be spared, but will be royalty tax/nationalized to death. Well, at least the ones not mortgaged to the hilt via Wall St.

Which isn't to say that a junior or two won't make the classic meteoric jump into the big time. Other than that though, it seems the monetary geniuses running the world are destroying any productive avenue they don't already control. Especially while the Crimex still exists. One can only deal with rising costs and lowered revenues for so long before it takes its toll.

Then again, what do I know? My untouchable IRA is likely holding tungsten in the form of CEF (but at least it's still up more than the QQQQs I traded for it).

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 01:22 | 3540071 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

+100.  I am with you brother I feel your pain.  Down 55% on the miners.  I will never touch the physical I just keep stackin.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 19:06 | 3546491 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Ha. I'm long miners, metals and short the rus/naz/s&p for over a year now. Talk about pain! But been long physical and miners since 2003.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:27 | 3538647 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

And tomorrow, the Dow will close over 15,100 for the first time.

Uncle Ben is providing somewhere between $3 and $4 billion to the heroin addicts during Wednesday's daily POMO.

By week's end, I don't think S&P 1650 is out of the question.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:37 | 3538680 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Tomorrow we'll hear something new about Benghazi... if it is bad expect Dow 16k.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 19:19 | 3539156 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Not sure that I agree with either of you fellows.  At this point, QE cash can be destroyed on any given day by quants that know...things don't go up forever.  So as new QE money goes in, I would expect high volume reversals.

 

 

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:28 | 3538651 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

What's the DOW/foodstamp ratio? And where do the congresmen flee when shtf? Fukushima?

Responsability can mislead, but it can't fly.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:29 | 3538658 kwatinhu
kwatinhu's picture

Anybody got any idea what the Great Benghazi Hearings will do for the market? I doubt it amounts to a hill of frijoles, but just curious what all you deep thinkers have to contribute.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 17:35 | 3538869 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Who knows...the last big crash was caused by a couple overseas phone calls one night, so it doesn't take much....they pull the rug out when it suits them. But 'Benghazi'? I'm not expecting much....show hearing where all will be excused I'm sure.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 19:21 | 3539161 Cdad
Cdad's picture

We are now set up perfectly for an '87 style overnight crash...no doubt.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 18:31 | 3539020 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

From what I just went and read on the subject, it appears to be another white-wash witch-hunt.

I don't believe for a second that Hitlery was "asleep at the switch," as put forth by Lindsey Graham. Instead, it looks like he's rolling out the ole "bureaucratic incompetence" line to cover for what she was really pulling off (in service of their masters).

It's funny how much more all of this stuff makes sense once I stopped watching all of the propaganda channels they pass off as news.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:30 | 3538659 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Money printer's delight. Let them dance down at the Federal Reserve, the fucker's are killing the real economy, the worker, the saver, and the small business man. Oh, fuck me, I am sorry for that rant, we all know America is built on the price of S&P. We can all cash in our wealth effect bonanza and live the good life.

Many have said it, and the many are right. This is nothing but a deliberate transfer of wealth from 90% up to the 10%. And if you think that this is the way it should be according to free market laws? Well, you're off your fucking head!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 17:22 | 3538815 Law97
Law97's picture

And don't think they care one iota about you if you are a saver, worker, or small businessman who is getting killed. News flash: if you're not in that top 10%, then they don't give two shits about you.  If you crawled out in the gutter tromorrow and died, they'd probaby thank you for taking yourself off the unemployment rolls, then send your family a bill for the cleanup.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:31 | 3538661 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Its such a set-up.
People are going to move thier 401k into stocks then bloodbath.
I know its net zero, but for middle class retail it is very grimm.
Its so perfect, older people can't get hired, inflation looming, us bankrupt and then a crash. Were looking at perfect storm meets grapes of wrath.
Its going to hurt.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:35 | 3538669 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Perhaps the ever-rising stock markets will be the way that TPTB get people to finally agree with tossing Social Security money into said markets.

Perhaps.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:39 | 3538686 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

what "social security money"?  There is no "lock box".

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 17:15 | 3538794 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

no shit! wasn't it that dirtbag clinton that "balanced"our budget with the SSI-I.O.U's?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 18:33 | 3539028 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, it was either that or take it off of the books completely.

Obfuscation is a government economist's friend.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 22:32 | 3539736 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Al Gore lied

Retirees cried....

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:38 | 3538684 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

When will this great crash come? Why would it come with the bernanke printing 85 billion indefinitely, what happens when the 85 billion becomes 300 billion?  plenty of liquidity to keep equities climbing while keeping a bid on treasuries...

Please elaborate so we can all trade it...

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 16:48 | 3538713 css1971
css1971's picture

At exactly the point you think. "Fuck it, it's going on for ever and ever and ever, I have to put my pension fund in or inflation is going to make it worthless".

That's when it's going to crash.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 17:00 | 3538745 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So, short all the major indices and retire.  riiiiggghhhht.

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