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No Recovery Here Either: Home Renovation Spending Plummets To 2010 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture


One of the widely accepted misconceptions surrounding the so-called "housing recovery" fanfared by misleading headlines such as this "Remodeling activity keeps up positive momentum", which in reality has merely turned out to be a housing bubble in various liquified "flip that house" MSAs (offset by continuing deteriorating conditions in those places where the Fed's trillions in excess reserves have trouble reaching coupled with ongoing foreclosure stuffing), is that "renovation spending", the amount of cash spent to upgrade and update a fixer-upper, has surged. In fact, the guiding light that renovation spending would be a key driver of the housing recovery was sufficient for BofA to release the following last August:

As homeowners take on long-delayed remodeling projects and real estate investors fix up distressed properties, the home improvement sector is getting its own makeover, according to a new BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report.


“Spending on home improvement is a powerful economic force that will provide a tail wind to the remodeling and construction industry for years to come,” said Denise Chai, retail analyst at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research and a co-author of the report. “As small-scale renovations give way to bigger ticket home remodeling projects and properties turn over to new owners, a wide range of companies and sectors stand to benefit.”


The analysts identified four sectors for investors to focus on: home improvement, home furnishings, building materials and appliance makers.


“While the home remodeling market is often overlooked, it is helping to lead the broader housing recovery,” said Michelle Meyer, senior U.S. economist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, who provided economic insights as co-author of the report. “There are some near-term macro headwinds, but also strong underlying trends that will sustain spending for years to come, creating a long-term investment cycle.”

The report culminated with the following:

BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research expects this surge in home remodeling activity to be aided by a healing economy, eventually fueling a recovery in household formation and housing turnover.

The last sentence is somewhat ironic, because as Bank of America itself updated first thing today, its proprietary metric of Census Bureau data looking a renovation spending has imploded in the past six months to levels not seen since 2010! So much for the "healing economy" pushing remodeling activity higher? And so much for a recovery in household formation and housing turnover?

The Hurricane Sandy line, by the way, should be an upside inflection point, as households rushed to fix up their homes damaged in part or in whole in the aftermath of Sandy, not a downward one. The result is so stunning not even BofA can't believe its implication:

We have been quite puzzled with the recent data from the Census Bureau showing that spending on home improvements has declined sharply from November through March. Not only do we think the fundamentals dictate a gain in renovation spending, but some of the more granular data suggest a pickup. We suspect the Census data will ultimately be revised higher, either in upcoming monthly releases or with the comprehensive benchmark GDP revision released in July.

Or just maybe the data is right, and the reality, not BofA's misconception (there's that word again) of it, is that households are in fact quite tapped out when looking at actual, unmanipulated data, which incidentally would foot quite well with the seasonally adjusted winter strength (and unadjusted weakness) which always fades into a period of spring gloom, when the implicit benefits from the most recent liquidity injections once again fade.

Either way, with numerous housing indicator data already topping out and once more facing lower, expect the deterioration in renovation spending to accelerate further in the coming months as the reality of the US household's financial picture can no longer be supressed by various seasonal adjustmenst and distracting S&P500 legerdemain.


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Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:20 | 3537035 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Yes we can.....but we chose not to.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:26 | 3537053 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

In a not so distant future that could become: "No, we couldn't!"

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:21 | 3537212 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's hard to avoid doing 'some' home renovation...


Practically everything is cheap shit made in China... It breaks all the time...

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:46 | 3537315 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

It's hard to do if you don't build your own house and ensure what you put in it on the front end...  people are going to come to appreciate quality construction once the maintenance costs of all their spec houses and mcmansions become incredibly apparent.  Although, if you can't even afford the monthly note, then why would you even care about maintenance...

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 10:40 | 3537477 madcows
madcows's picture

Using quality materials costs a crapload of money.  Unfortunately, all we can afford is the cheap chinese shit, regardless of its lack of quality.

I hate HD and Lowes.  Their stuff really is cheaply made.  However, if the faucet craps out, I have to replace it, and it costs $100 from HD, but $350 from FW Webb.

My question is, will the Chinese buy our shitty stuff after we've collapsed and taken their place as the wage slave manufacturing dump of the world?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 12:10 | 3537765 booboo
booboo's picture

Moen, guaranteed for life. Price Pfister and you are Phucked

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 12:19 | 3537794 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Big box stores are CCC outlets. There actually is a quality grade difference between what is sold at big box vs smaller contractor suppliers. I stopped buying finish plumbing and electrical fixtures at big box because of the rapid decline in function/finish.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 17:04 | 3538758 de3de8
de3de8's picture

They will never admit that.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:37 | 3537087 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Bank of Lynch propaganda machine breaks down surprise there.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:00 | 3537155 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture
Moody’s analysis contemplates 44% drop in Canadian housing prices[March, 2013]



Canada joins Spain, as well as the United Kingdom and Australia, in the ratings agency’s assessment of countries where growth in housing prices over the past 10 years has driven their values away from sustainable market fundamentals and into “overheated” territory.

“As with Australia, Spain and the U.K., we expect house prices in Canada to suffer the most due to the misalignment of current house prices with historic fundamentals,” Moody’s said.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 12:21 | 3537805 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

From my travels to the maritimes and Toronto area, I've felt these markets have been overheated for a long time.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:02 | 3537159 fortune114
fortune114's picture

You didin't fix that.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:05 | 3537172 Scro
Scro's picture

Intangible renovations.

If I had a job I would put in the Kohler 74 head shower system that massages your privates.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 17:06 | 3538763 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Better hurry as soon to be outlawed on env reasons....uses too much water

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:37 | 3537037 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Come on!

What the fuck does the Census Bureau know about home renovation?

The product mix may be different from ~'06 but look at Home Depot's sales figures.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:38 | 3537088 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I don't know if you are being sarcastic but I agree with you. HD and Lowe's is jam packed by me every day and twice as Jam packed on the weekends. Kitchen and bath stores swamped.

The shit must be seriously hitting the fan elsewhere to compensate for the spending utopia that sorrounds me.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:46 | 3537097 Mercury
Mercury's picture

HD [Equity] FA [GO]


I'm sure far fewer people are tapping their home equity for a $80k kitchen makeover these days but there are many other types of "renovation" that go up when the economy and your personal finances are sucking wind.

Don't forget PE/hedge funds are big landlords now...and they probably didn't take the time for the CB's survey or whatever idiot data gathering exercise is behind this chart.

By the way, look at what a pain in the ass the Census Bureau has become under Obama:


Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:42 | 3537098 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Not seeing that here.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:49 | 3537117 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's bizarro world. I posted a pic a few weeks ago of a house that was sitting dormant for years near my friends house. The place was a shithole of all shitholes. The owner moved away but refused to let the bank take the home for some reason. He was current on his taxes. You should have see the pics...

Anyway it went up for sale recently. I am at my friends house and I see Asian family after Asian family after Asian family walk in and out. The guy ended up with a bidding war and the house went for well over asking.

I bought my prison in 2007. Supposedly I am back near where I bought it less the 50k I dumped into this money pit. I am considering selling but I can't leave the state right now and rents are skyrocketing too.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:07 | 3537175 Mercury
Mercury's picture

What's your neighbor's street #?

Asians dig the number 8.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:18 | 3537194 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

I don't see much house buying activity where I live anymore....used houses sit on the market for weeks and rentals one wants a "used house"....and builders are fiercely building over 8,000 new boxes north of here and handing out zero down or near zero down loans to anyone who can fog a mirror.....


One thing for sure is areas where lots of zero down houses were sold, they are turning into run down areas, prob since those folks could not afford them in the first place putting down zero to move it.

Other problem areas I see are the wall street investor areas where >16% of the houses are rentals...turning to slums almost since renters tend not to care about the house, or the neighborhood (in general) since they are short timers and have no stake in the place...sort of like public housing.


This article was very predictive:


Watch what happens when gas prices rise further...

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 10:39 | 3537474 MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

Weeks?  Boy, your area is doing better than ours.  In our town, I can point out at least five houses that have been sitting with "Reduced Price" for 3 years now

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:43 | 3537103 pods
pods's picture

Last time I was at HD there were so few people there that you could have NYC's finest shoot at a perp and nobody would be hurt.


Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:21 | 3537213 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

There are hot spots, just as there were before. The problem is that those hot spots are generally driven by speculation...just like wall street. How do you think that will turn out? Speculation markets seem to always have been where the excess money or wealth goes to multiply. I really have to wonder though. I would assume that in decades past most of the money that pushed into "investing" was real earned income or accumilated wealth and therefor sustainable becasue it was based on real money. Today's speculation seems to be based almost completely on fake or borrowed wealth. Th efinancail crash was brought about by debt, right? When the stock market crashed in 29, wasn't a big component of the problem that people were borrowing money to buy stocks? Its seems to be one thing when you lose all of your money and and quite something else when you lose money you never had.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 17:13 | 3538781 de3de8
de3de8's picture

The hot spots are driven by govt money, either direct employment or " contractors".

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:11 | 3537183 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

HomeDepot's numbers may be up but I would have to question how many of their competitors are dead and gone. This economy lies when looking at isolated numbers. Many individual businesses that show improved sales numbers have done so not due to an improving economy but because of reduced competition. How did Best Buy do when Curcuit City closed? I know that Lowes is still going prety well but lots of small independent hardware suppliers and lumber yards are gone. Big business is prospering at the cost of the small, with the helping hand of big Gov of course. Internet Sales Tax is next up of course. This is not growth but digestion. We are whats left on the floor when the process is done.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:22 | 3537041 Fishthatlived
Fishthatlived's picture

You just can't make this shit up....except when you do.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:22 | 3537043 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

your not squinting hard enough , there is a recovery there somewhere.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:27 | 3537058 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



LOL - coffee through the nose...thx

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:20 | 3537207 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

yes, the so-called, "jobless recovery".....whatever that means.....

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:33 | 3537266 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

ie the recoveryless recovery.or Ben's big blue Viagra recovery, wait until the pill wears off, we'll see wall street is a flacid old dick with its skin worn off.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:24 | 3537048 tornado_watch
tornado_watch's picture

Pretty sure there is an intangible we can toss in there--maybe remodels that homeowners would like to do.

For what it is worth, when you strip out imputations, debt-to-GDP in the US already running 120%.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:29 | 3537065 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

It's a safe (ha) bet they did not include money spent on safe/vault construction.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 13:34 | 3537982 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

...or salvage vessels and sub-bottom sonar systems!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:36 | 3537080 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Hedonic adjustment...if the kitchen cabinets fall off the walls, it will "even out" the look of the rusted sink and dying appliances, increasing the value by creating a more "consistent feel."

(hey, I like this 'make-it-up' stuff!)

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:31 | 3537258 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

intangible good will and recalculate all the numbers going back to 1946, introduce an adjusted index with confidential weighting and classify certain years as state secrets. Voila any number you want, any time you want it.

The secret to data modeling is having the results before you make the calculations so you can make your math fit the results.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:25 | 3537049 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

now wait a minute, I just updated my fall out shelter! does that count?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:28 | 3537061 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Not unless you want the tax assessor and the drones to keep tabs on it.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:33 | 3537072 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

just added a bar and pinball machine, may be able to have our tax lady for drinks! cant do anything about drones, they already have pictures of everything on google earth!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:37 | 3537084 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Ummm...what's your "tax lady" look like?  'cuz I've got a picture in my mind of Madame Aqualung.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:27 | 3537055 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The country didn't revolve around New Orleans after Katrina, why the fuck should it revolve around these new england states after Sandy.  Fuck em, especially new york. 

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:32 | 3537070 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



LOP...I know you didn't mean it this way.  But please, please, never confuse New York with New England. Even amidst the froth of libtards, the rolling hills of New England will forever be greater than the filth that is the Empire State.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:51 | 3537123 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Nuh Uh Mayhem. We are all in this together, come on now, group hug.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:00 | 3537136 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please, aside from maybe New Hampshire, guess who is the single largest employer in all of these states (hint- it's the fucking state).  I grew up in Maine, just outside Belgrade Lakes, these people have long suffered from cognative disonance, many claiming to be conservatives, yet all supporting the state machine and their pension-for-nothing dreams.  No one wants to support these bloated pensions anymore and they wonder why business is going everywhere else.  I tried to move a cattle business back to New England, after considering the costs it didn't happen.  Sorry, I sure as hell meant it.  Mom still lives there with many other retirees.  She even admits you can't support fat pensions for old folks without decent paying jobs for the young folks.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:00 | 3537153 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



But Dave Roberts is better than Bucky Dent. 

(btw...the people outside of Belgrade Lakes mostly suffer from a highly-correlated gene pool.  Not you, of course). 

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:12 | 3537174 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

My family came to the U.S. during WWII, they served in order to recieve citizenship. many died.  Imagine fucking that, sacrafice for citizenship, both my father and I served as well.  After the war, my grandfather moved to Maine to work in the paper mills.  Please, we know about building something from the ruins of nothing and have never been tied to one area, (admittedly many there are) so what's you fucking point?  Did I not answer your question.  Personal attacks do little to advance any cause, especially if it is bullshit.  if New England wants businesses to grow tell those old farts to start spending their money more wisely, cut taxes, and shrink the fucking state employee pool and pension.  It is what it is.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:17 | 3537198 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



I was joking, LOP.  Get over yourself.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:24 | 3537224 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not really keeping with the "mayhem" moniker then.  Trust me, I have tried to do business in New England and still have many relatives there in several states.  I'd say about half work for the state and the the other half work "under the table", which of course only makes things worse, but hey if you are really going to tax things like soda and rainwater, then this is what you get.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:35 | 3537269 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



I completely agree with you...the place is an effing disaster.  I currently live in one New England state and have lived in two others - since the late 60s - so I know the region very well and am attached to it despite the debacle that it is. 

I have also traveled a LOT - been virtually everywhere in the US and abroad.  My view is that the sheeple in New England - the good folk, not the elite - are honestly oblivious of the statism that ails them.  But they are very good natured people, once they warm up to you (in contrast, if you go to, say, Tennessee, the folks there are immediately warm and hospitable, even if equally in the dark.  And the midwesterners have that quiet, welcoming feel about them.)

But New York City is a true Babylon in my eyes.  Too many people come from around the world to work there and turn into top-flight a-holes.  It's the most overstated place I've been exposed to.  So I get a little chapped about the NE-NY thing.  But you're absolutely right - neither is a welcoming place for any sustainable economic activity.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 10:27 | 3537434 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Upstate NY is very different from NYC , though.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 11:14 | 3537589 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Bastiat. true dat. When I moved to NYC from upstate (Rochester) in the 70s, I told a local from where I came and he asked, "where's that, up in the woods?"

Upstate NY has beautiful, scenic, rural areas, rolling hills, lots of lakes, streams, rivers and ponds and a shitload of small, independent farmers.

Outside of the cruel winters, the property taxes and a few snooty types, it's about as close to Nirvana as one can get, especially from May through November.

We have the same issues with the state pensions, which account for about 50% of property taxes. Can't have everything.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:29 | 3537062 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

Nothing's sadder than the lard ass who works the self-checkouts at Home Depot, when there isn't even a single customer in line.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:16 | 3537191 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Gotta love how 'consumer friendly' Home Depot is now after they put all the local places out of business.  Hell, they even bught a lease for a new shopping center down the road to keep Lowes out (and sub let to BJ's).

HD closes the main exit early - ever try to manuver 16' 2x's through one of their other register aisles?   Lucky to have ONE register with a person at it besides the self check - and that one register is rarely in front of the exit.  You've got old ladies paying for a plant or two at the main registers because Garden closes early, bcking up the heavy spenders stuck behind then while a price check is run because there are no bar codes on the damn plant.  Used to be you had people who KNEW SOMETHING at HD - retired contractors or tradesmen.  Now it's minimum wage could pass the drug test kids or older "I'll take anythigng".   Those working there have a lower opinion of the place than their customers.  I suspect much of this goes back to the last CEO who made a mess of things.

Takes me longer to check out at HD than to pick up what I need no matter when I go - no matter that the place isn't all that busy either.

The only time HD is decent is when a Lowes is nearby to give them some serious competition.    But then that's true of all US business now.  Most are lazy and could care less because they DONT have any real competition.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 11:41 | 3537683 sharonsj
sharonsj's picture

Sounds like Walmart, where 75% of the registers are closed.  I save shopping in the frozen food aisle for the very last, so the stuff won't melt while I'm on line.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:29 | 3537063 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

There is no recovery, there will be no recovery. Minus an historical tecnologic breakthrough or a window breaking party on a world wide scale.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:51 | 3537125 kito
kito's picture

Cold fusion will save us will give us our mcmansions.....our roadtrips......our gluttonous, wasteful, big ass piece of the world's resource pie will be ours forever!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:56 | 3537143 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Once upon a time I have been a physicist. I don't do that anymore, but I can assure you that the only thing cold fusion is good for is attracting black helicopters very quickly!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 11:00 | 3537548 spine001
spine001's picture

Could you ellaborate? I've never worked on the topic but my understanding was that cold fusion was more of a myth than reality. But black helicopters don't fly for myths... Thanks

Until next time,


Wed, 05/08/2013 - 04:38 | 3540233 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Okay, I'll give a short answer - reluctantly: Low energy nuclear reactions do in fact exist and have been documented in several experiments. I'd suggest to read the following article from "The Science of Nature":

It has also been demonstrated at the M.I.T., by Prof. Hagelstein: “Cold Fusion 101: Introduction to Excess Power in Fleischmann-Pons Experiments”,

"The most interesting and promising [technology sector] at this point ... [is] low energy nuclear reactions," says Dennis Bushnell from the NASA:

But be warned: The "Rossi-E-Cat" is greatly hyped at the moment - I'm somewhat sceptical about that. Nonetheless the cold fusion can in principle be regarded as empirically proven.

I don't want to go into more detail. But I'll give an additional hint: Explore the role of Palladium in low energy nuclear reactions, and you shall find more knowledge ...

Until next time - under a clear blue sky (without any helicopters)

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:29 | 3537064 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I live on a good block in my town and we've got 4 houses for sale for the last year and a half and there is no interest at the asking price.  I see no recent improvement activity in these homes and they need work.  One of these 4 houses, my neighbor has just turned into a rent house for the second time.  His first tenants were low-income people trying to reach for a better neighborhood.  A doctor and his wife recently bought a house (hasn't closed yet, so don't know the price) before it was listed because of the location and good condition.  Now there's a house for sale for $2.6M, which is over 10 times the median sales price for our neighborhood.  Good luck with that one....

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:33 | 3537073 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

You cannot keep stacking if you spend on remodeling; just saying.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:35 | 3537078 Auburn
Auburn's picture

Don't tell HD or LOW!   Both are helium filled like everything else.  No wonder there is a helium shortage - the markets have sucked it all up.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:24 | 3537220 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

If it quacks like a duck, its probably just a turkey filled with helium. Ben Bernanke does sound like donald duck if you speed up his videos. of course his twitch makes him look more like a tweaking crack freak.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:37 | 3537083 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So this must be the news causing all indexes to rise over all-time record highs before open?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:42 | 3537094 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I live in a pretty stable upper-middle class neighborhood and we recently had three houses that went back to the bank which was kind of surprising. Then there were two more houses that had offers, but the financinig for previously "pre-approved" buyers fell through. Another problem is that people are reaching out of their price range again thanks to some government down payment assistance. This is only going to compound the problem later. 

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:45 | 3537102 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

The money not being spent on renovations by the former middle class is even worse than shown in the above chart because Blackrock, etal. has been dumping mega bucks into renovating their foreclosed property purchases to get them into rentable condition.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:47 | 3537115 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

beleive me not your lying eyes.. 

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:50 | 3537122 deerhunter
deerhunter's picture

1973 gallon of milk .89,  gallon of gas 32.9c , pack of smokes .45.  2013 gallon of milk 3.99, gallon of gas 4.00, pack of smokes 6.50.  Value of US dollar,  priceless.  Sales at Home Depot,  who cares.  8 homes here on market for over a year,  priceless. 

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:21 | 3537209 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

2 more home owners walked away from their mortgages in my neighborhood last month.

One now has lovely plywood decking over the ground level doors and windows. What is the bank preparing for? Its not like this is an urban neighborhood.

The only thing thats recovering in this city is my lawn and that's just because its been raining like Ben Bernanke was in charge of printing rain.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:53 | 3537132 kito
kito's picture

Nobody needs to fix their homes because the recovery has allowed us all to buy NEW ONES!!!!!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 08:56 | 3537145 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Ahh the MSM is now riffing on my biflationary theory, calling it "The Bipolar Economy" ! (I kid you not). It spells death of the middle class either way you call it. But BIflation runs deeper to the core of economic, political and social issues.

Oh and enjoy your new granite counter top and brushed metal sub zero!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:04 | 3537165 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Hey, my clients live the for the excuse to buy a $12k fridge! If it were not for the deluded (myself included) most of us would not have a job!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:53 | 3537320 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Yeah, this biflation thing. It's not an either/or thing, or even both. It is an exponential thing like 2^2 or 4 different ways things turn out.

Steady erosion in value of things like cars, houses, followed by an increasing redemption of  IRAs and 401Ks to sustain middle class  standards of living. Will this be sufficient to erode the recent stock market gains, or will all these government workers with their cushy benefit plans, including 401Ks being supplied by FED printing be enough to keep the markets inflated?

The question is, who will have to grab these middle class /non government workers' assets first? The squeezed owners  or the government? This sounds like deflation.


But then, what about the piles  of cash held by the FED and Wall Street, waiting to pounce? Sounds like the only things they will be interested in are prime real estate, ferraris, and PMs. They won't want your old junker car or your moldy leaky house.  As long as the currency still holds, they will slowly buy up everything of value. The only jobs left will be government/Wall Street financed....which could mean military.

As a physician, see government trying to create a living hell for health care, so that people are left in a default situation. Completely nationalized health care or ObamaCare Hell. Seems to me that health care ultimately will be provided only to "obediant workers" or "obediant voters". (AKA more free "shit").


Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:01 | 3537157 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

What ever happened to the power of positive thinking? The little engine that could? Build it and they will come? You're not going to tell me those were all just faily tales, now are you? Afterall, look where positive thinking (delusion) has got us so far!

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:06 | 3537176 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Thank goodness for the "granular data". That really shows a huge pick up in home spending. I know, except for a few plants for the garden we are not spending any money at HD or Lowes. 

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:14 | 3537189 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Home Depot is deserted here, not selling shit, but my local coin dealer is sold out. What's that tell you?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:22 | 3537216 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It tells you the government and media  are doing a snowjob on the sheeple and it's all messed up. Higher taxes and fees coming down.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 10:30 | 3537449 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

every night and i mean every, the msm says and i quote, "more signs that  the housing industry is recovering.." my cousin inherited his parents house (unemcumbered) then took out an equity line to upgrade, and now he has been foreclosed out. (in large part because the values of homes his neighborhood fell) our new insurance premium took a nice bump up on a higher rebuilding fee (whats good for the propagooser is good propagander)  and i am sure contractors are charging more, because of the cost of living, but i discovered something, my hand fits a hammer too.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:18 | 3537201 deerhunter
deerhunter's picture

company I worked for 20 years and a 42 year old company at that.  14 midwest cities from 2 in growth from 92 to 2012.  EPA regs regarding lead containment in removing windows and doors for replacemtent added 800 to 1400 dollars per job in labor on an average 5 to 7 k sale.  Sales in 2008 28 million.  BK by 2012.  No,  the economy has not recovered.  No, the do gooders at EPA worried about your kid eating an entire wood window sill from a home built and painted before 1978 does not have your best interest at heart.  57 year old white guy out on the street looking for work.  Direct result of government intrusion on business.  Class per carpenter to do the lead containent class 750.00 per man.  One day,  maybe soon,  maybe later,  when your jobs are all gone,  we will grow some balls and rise up and do something.  Maybe shelter in place should apply to all government employees for a week.  My concern is for my kids and grandkids.  You truly don't own any property.  Stop paying your property taxes if you don't believe me.  The America I grew up in is nowhere in sight.  It is easy to say just head somewhere else.  Really?   Canada where my parents immigrated from?  Europe where their parents came from?  Boat to Cuba?  Container on a transport ship to China?  If not here,  Where?  government intrusion and over regulation is the death of this country.  Not will be,  is.  I am rambling.  Good day all.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:27 | 3537236 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

The movie The Deerhunter had an ominous forboding: The almost idyllic life in the P-burgh steel mills where generations of families lived seemingly solid middle class lives, complete with high school proms, practical jokes, and jobs after graduation right there in town, then suddenly these same buddies all wind up prisoners in an animal cage half submerged in a river in Viet Nam.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 10:13 | 3537389 Element
Element's picture

Let me guess, a Statist entity told them lies, created a war, screwed them over, turned them into murderers, then got all their friends turned into burger, as a sacrifice for "the cause", to protect someone or others "way of life" ... clearly not theirs?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 10:10 | 3537390 zipit
zipit's picture

"We Take Care of Our Own" -Bruce

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:19 | 3537203 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

That's funny I can't seem to spend enough on the house thanks to my fucking wife.

I hope it does crash........materials are too damn high. 

In fact everything is too high.  It's not that people aren't making enough the feds are fucking up everything that just makes it 100x harder to get by all in the name of their rich friends assets.  Of course they need to get those pensions elevated before they steal those too.  There's just no winning in this hellhole for most.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 10:29 | 3537441 eaglerock
eaglerock's picture

I plan on using these stats to get out of my honey-do list.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:20 | 3537206 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The government will fix it. More taxes!!!

Impose an internet sales tax. Disguise it a fairness tax for the sheeple.

More property taxes. It's for the children and nice fat pensioned public union workers.

The Federal Reserve banksters will fix it by increasing food and energy prices through currency devaluation.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:24 | 3537222 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

We will all soon be "fairly" dead at this rate.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:42 | 3537296 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

LMFAO!!!  More shite macros - Dow Jones up 43.


This reminds me of childhood days and water balloons.


Let's see how much water we can put into the balloon before it explodes.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 09:50 | 3537331 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Turn that chart upside down and it will look just like the Home Depot chart.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 10:27 | 3537436 brown_hornet
brown_hornet's picture

I'm a remodeler near Chicago. Worked for a straight week for the first time since '09. No big projects. Ten years ago, had to beat customers off with a stick. HD sucks. Menards in the midwest is the way to go.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 10:37 | 3537468 InTheLandOfTheBlind
InTheLandOfTheBlind's picture

did boa reference fundamentals?

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 15:18 | 3538412 Jason T
Jason T's picture

For what its worth, I've got a good deal of work to still do on my house but this summer, I'm concentrating on my gardening and going to take a break on big money projects.  Also hit the auction place to get stuff for super cheap .. second hand stuff but good.  So I won't be participating much in helping this index but I did in 2010 and 2011 for sure.

Tue, 05/07/2013 - 19:57 | 3539249 patb
patb's picture

if a critical part of the housing boom is being driven by Wall Street buying homes, then we should not be surprised that Renovation is declining.

These slumlords in suits are not going to fix anything, other then to change the locks when people move 



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