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The Reality-Is-Perception Gap
With retail stocks surging on the back of the any-minute-now recovery (justified by the might of the Federal Reserve printing press), we thought it perhaps useful to consider just how great things are in the retail sales space. Given the non-stop accelerating rise in the equity prices, retail sales must be accelerating or must have turned up green-shoot-like? Well not so much. As the following chart shows, while retail sales (ex-food) is still rising modestly YoY, it is doing so a decelerating pace (as income growth stagnates and discretionary income slumps). But for now, all we must believe is the market knows best (until, 2008-like) it doesn't.
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Just shows how fake and smoke and mirrors like QuEasy has made this 'market'
Go ahead pass a national sales tax.
I wish I knew about ZeroHedge back in 2008.
I don't know of any other site where so much truth is concentrated on a daily basis. However, it does bring with it the curse...of knowing the truth.
Thank you, Tyler. I share brother flacon's sentiment entirely.
Reality is their illusion.
.
Their fiction is the reality.
The other problem with ZH is that I can't keep up with all the great articles they post.
Yeah, but by now I've figured out the banksters and governments are evil. There is a lot of often repeated information in the ZH articles.
I'm no longer reading everything, at least until the SHTF. I've started a social life. ;-)
The truth is not a curse. Living a lie is fine until the 10 ton truck of reality runs you over. Knowing the truth prevents you from walking into traffic.
I think you know what I mean.
The important thing is you know about it now.
I don't think this site was up in 08. I do remember the Tyler's posting on various financial sites comments sections. The post that really stands out was about DDRX at SeekingAlpha.com
I scrolled down and clicked on "last". Since 6/18/2009, the Tylers have presented >2,200 pages of articles!!! I feel like a goose whose liver is almost ready to be harvested.
Out of curiosity, what was his pseudonym on SA and when was the coment?
In 2008 the market did not have to overcome 85 bil a month pomo
Even on the subject of POMO...it matters greatly, until it suddenly doesn't. Good luck with it.
thanks?
So who's getting that money again?
Yes.
Oh.....shorting PMs AND buying equities.
Maybe when they're done they'll just send us all a big refund check.
All that QE money is overflowing.
Bernanke and the Fed can boast about the stock market being so high. The real economy and unemployment doesn't matter anymore.
Can someone explain to me why the 85 billion/month in POMO is necessarily bullish for stocks? The FED is buying treasuries, not stocks (at least not openly). It is up to the discretion of the Primary Dealers to use the proceeds to buy stocks, right? That is not a guarantee, is it? What if they use it to post collateral to go short?
In 2008, the banks were essentially forced to collude with the FED and the US Treasury. Shorting would not be in their self interest... they would be biting the hand that feeds them. If they do anything outside of their arrangement to prop up asset prices, they will likely find the SEC or DoJ is very interested in some aspect of their business.
I also have been asking that question. The 'openly' part may provide some of the answer. After all, other central banks around the world HAVE openly admitted to buying stocks directly, so it's not much of a leap to believe the Fed is doing the same. Though how they would do it without it showing up on some balance sheet or other is not clear to me.
What also bothers me is the fact roughly 2 full months worth of POMO(treasuries and MBS), was wiped out in 30-60 seconds last month during the 'fake tweet' moment. The idea that this latest POMO effort is infallible, and stocks can only go higher while it's ongoing, seems like a hollow claim IMO.
But I'm decidedly wrong so far this year...
Retail sales would be even worse if it wasn't for the record breaking firearm an ammunition sales
Forward!
Yup, the Sandy Hook experiment earned them yet another F-.
But Federal Reserve keep getting access to billions of QE money monethly they have to do something with it.
They throw it into equities.
It doesn't matter if in reality things are getting worse.
An that GDP.... it will be revised up bacause it hasn't been doing too well. Besides the government needs to borrow more.
Sounds like famous last words.
Its the new normal. Retail stock ETFs are perception and actual retail sales are not the reality
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-shares-capped-nikkei-soars-043155463...
Pretty strange stuff if you ask me. The postponement of the correction is going to make the reset to reality very painful when it comes.
This would be even worse if retail sales didn't contain a survivor bias. Where are the Circuit City sales? This is also measured in inflated dollars. Less killer, more filler.
The printed money has to go somewhere. Close your eyes and throw a dart it's been rising. (accept of course precious metals) the one thing that should be rising the most.
Didn't you hear? The senate just passed an internet sales tax. That's going to save retail. ....Rally on.
I doubt Barry will sign a bill to increase taxes.
Something stinks in the wood pile.
<Must be Jamie.>
Sorry that was me...I couldn't wait. I sure hope that was a maple leaf and not poison ivy I used to clean myself.
At least it wasn't a thistle ...
Let em sell shares at Wallmart then...retail sales will just go parabolic.
As long as enough people believe the fiction it is reality. Ben is winning. Look at Greenspan, still spouting his bullshit and people hang on his every word, not knowing or ignoring the duplicity. Selling out pays!! That is the lesson to learn here. If Ben eventually were to lose, there will be no consequence, and someone will take his place and the show will go on as if nothing happened. The fact is these fuckers in charge one way or the other always win. Maybe a few lose their heads, but just like the monster guarding the gates to hell, no matter how many heads you are able to cut off, they just grow more.
Hard to deny and very depressing. What good is being right and correct when you get punished for it at every turn by those in power? Sucks.
I've contributed to sales by tripling my purchases of popcorn. Doom gloom and the crazy sh*t being reported on this site is too bonkers for many to believe. Perhaps that's why we're drawn to ZH. We enjoy reality (and popcorn) a bit too much.
NASDAQ100 is in a vertical ascent again - after PC sales declined by the largest percentage in history.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/nasdaq100-hourly-shows-consolidation-mo...
So much for techology growth - even Linkedin took a bath.
MOC Perception vs. reality, or How the Krugman monopods get paid to cause devolution
Tyler,
This chart makes the 417th ominous "Jaws Of Death" unsustainablly ridiculous divergence.
Methinks they ALL may snap shut together, or at least within a few minutes of each other...!!
"Who'd like some PANCAKES..??"