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Ira Sohn Conference Begins With Paul Singer And Kyle Bass Sticking To The Script
Correction: an earlier version of this post stated Paul Singer was "shorting Argentina". In fact, he had no comments on Argentina at the Ira Sohn conference.
Today's star-studded Ira Sohn conference was led by two behemoths - Elliott's Paulk Singer and Hayman's Kyle Bass. We recently discussed in detail Paul Singer's perspective on the "most dangerous" investing environment but today he summarized and added to those comments at the Ira Sohn conference. "There is no safe haven in today's markets," he explained, "those holding long-term bonds in US, UK, and Japan own assets that are trading at the wrong price," and went on with more brutal honesty, QE causes a distorted recovery - financiers doing well, ordinary person not experiencing recovery. Kyle Bass also stuck to the script noting that in Japan "mindsets are changing - the beginning of the end has begun," and exclaiming in his subtle and forthright manner, "you have to be shitting me, you're adding a ponzi scheme to a ponzi scheme." We leave the summation up to Singer, "the ultimate question for a fiat money regime is at what point does confidence in money disappear?"
Elliott's Paul Singer:
- What we have in "legacy countries" is "long-term insolvency"
- World central banks have "reveled in the role" of being the only stimulators of growth
- The ultimate question for a fiat money regime is at what point does confidence in money disappear?
- We now have a "poisonous atmosphere" in which to "rely on the private sector" to create growth
- The world needs growth through innovation and entrepreneurship that's not zero-sum
- Ordinary person not experiencing Dow at 15000
Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass:
- On Japan: "You have to be shitting me, you're adding a ponzi scheme to a ponzi scheme."
- Country is "on tilt"
- BOJ: What they're doing is about 70% of what the Fed is doing for an economy 1/3
- Yen will get in to the 120s the next couple of years.
- Mindsets are changing - "The beginning of the end has begun.""
- Dex Media (DXM) debt will be worth par, equity will trade at 5x today’s price in 3 years.
DXM is now +25% (and it seems it never took a 300 page powerpoint presentation to achieve that?)...
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KB's Japan thesis isn't materializing yet. I wonder if it ever will.
You might only see it in your rear-view mirror
Unvarnished truth is coming into vogue.
Bass doesn't have time to try to polish the lame economic turds.
Leave that to Krugman et al.
Let's see with time who turns out to be right.
Any video available of this yet? Sure would like to see and hear Kyle say "Are you shitting me.....
Krugman can't hold Bass' jock
Although I am neutral on your response, I had to give you a down arrow to even you out w/ "Sandman"...
The copies of gold and silver inflated,
which after the theft were thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated
All scrips and bonds will be wiped out.
Give it some time. Nothing happens overnight. On one side we have natural/divine forces and laws of economics, on the other side we have the almighty central banks. It'll just take some time, but the outcome is as clear as a tear drop.
And on yet another side, there's these silly things known as belief systems, where one person's fact is another's fiction.
Beliefs have no bearing on reality, only relativity. What prople believe doesn't matter, only what they do.
Meanwhile, while everyone is being distracted with the incredible amounts of fiat being printed, the vaults are quietly and expeditiously being emptied of the real money, and someday soon, everyone will say "what happened to it all, no one seems to know where it went". And the counterfeit nature and transient value of fiat will become self-evident, and everyone will be pointing fingers, and blaming all the wrong people and institutions, to no avail.
+1 for "clear as a tear drop."
[quote]Give it some time. Nothing happens overnight. [\quote]
Almost. To be clear...
Nothing happens overnight, until it happens overnight.
Every national currency theft has occurred overnight. The people wake up with a hair cut, or broke.
Dark_Horse
No offense, but every time I hear people criticize Kyle Bass's thesis it reminds me of a child in the back seat of a car asking:
"Are we there yet?...
Are we there yet?... Are we there yet?...
Are we there yet?... Are we there yet?...
Are we there yet?... Are we there yet?..."
Not yet, these things take a little time to fully unfold. Kyle Bass is completely correct, be patient.
What you say is so true. You reminded me of a joke where mum and dad are driving along and the kids in the back seat are being very unruly.
The father says, "the kids in the back seat can cause an accident."
The mother replies, "and accidents in the back seat can cause children'"
Unfortunately the world is infected with short term vision. Instant gratification, combined with with fewer people with children has lead us to terminal short term thinking. Combined with the doom and gloom of our economic future, anyone who dares prognosticate more than a week out is a wacko Nostradamus. We effectively have no future, at least one than many are interested in experiencing. Still I think those who dare to anticipate the great unfolding may win really big indeed. Unfortunately, most of us can't see it and lack the conviction to act if we did.
@Charlie - You must be the kind of guy that stops taking antibiotics after only one day, because "they're not working yet"...
You must work in healthcare ;)
Whatever all these hedgefucks tell you - do the opposite!
With the exception of an occasional win here and there, they all suck since 2008. On balance, if you parked money with these guys after 2008, you are down big today. Only thing they are good at is collecting their fees!
Anyone who can really see the future that many of us would predict, probably has been a loser since 08. I surely know I am as I have exited the markets completely, grumbling at my .2% return on accounts. Unfortunately I have made no alternate hedges to offset my losses, where someone like Bass has, and probably at some expense. Those who cashed in big in 08 were taking heavy losses until the worm turned their way, and then they couldn't wheelbarrow it out fast enough.
Your 0.2% return beat most of these hedgefucks' return.
So that was Kyle buying DXM at 8:15?
5x today's closing price or open price, there is a huge difference. lol.
"Dex Media (DXM) debt will be worth par, equity will trade at 5x today’s price in 3 years."
You stole my avatar!
We used to do DXM in high school.
In other news, charging poor people fees is encroaching on banks territory
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-08/wal-mart-prepaid-card-plan-needs-oversight-bankers-said.html
Can't have WalMart goading & priming demand for Chinese goods via financing consumers without first checking with the multigalactic CB-hubbed price-fixing ponzi scheme FIRST.
What part of the "all-seeing eye" do these Waltons NOT understand?!!?
The need to HQ in lower Manhattan, apparently.
They've been fighting to be their own bank for years. At some point they're just going to have to "partner" with a "viable" entity.
i dont understand the fed anymore.'
the whole printing money to boost the market never made sense,because that is not how you have economic growth.
However, has it not gotten to the point already , as to where it is becoming boring with every day green with no volume.
it clearly does not work, no one is participating in this market, its become a snoozefest daily with the once in a blue moon big sell off.
how did these fools even get college degrees, or jobs? this is what they think the best solution to growth is? gee we r fucked if this is the best we got
I think the people in the know are just trying to buy time. That additional time demands a precious cost. They are likely trying to figure out a way to save their own skins. I expect the enforcement arm to get pretty ugly before this all ends. They have nowhere to run. They are like cornered wild animals. When the truth starts to come out, god help us all. Desperate people are capable of unbelievable things.
It doesn't make sense because you're applying not only the wrong perspective to it, but an obviously incoherent one at that (like you said, it makes no sense).
Printing money is a wealth transfer mechanism that benefits "them" while serving to control "us." As evidenced by every metric you can see, it not only makes sense, but operates spectacularly.
Sure, it is unsustainable, and they absolutely know it. But it's the only game they've got, so when the SHTF they pull of a diversionary tactic to escape the blame.
Neither corner a wild cat or catch a falling chain saw........
"Printing money is a wealth transfer mechanism"
This is the key point. QE is about wealthy people stealing the value of your productive labor, above and beyond what they're already contractually taking from you via loans/leases/rent. That is the general point of the Federal Reserve bank, which is why it's specifically an immoral and evil entity. They are stealing from you. You do not have a say in this. You do not vote for them. They are programming you to fear deflation, because inflation is theft. They mask inflation, because it makes the theft more obvious.
Ok, the Fed doesn't know how to create "growth." From what I have read lately, doesn't seem like anyone else knows, either. What people do know is how to leverage.
It's all burning. Problem is the herd hasn't smelt it yet.... Good problem to have for late-blooming prepers....
It's how you pay off your criminal friends on Wall Street and in the banking industry, and charge the bill to the suckers oops I mean the taxpayers.
That's all bullshit about helping the economy. They have to have a cover story for the media.
Beginning of the end, yeah if I had a dollar for every time I've heard that there'd be a mountain of money piled up to my chin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-Q3cp3cp88
I'd like to know Kyle's thoughts on gold. Why did he contradict himself and dump some? Was it to reallocate? Did he take delivery on the contracts he ended up buying? Inquiring minds want to know.
Just a guess, but he may be copycatting the CB theme of long phys/short paper.
Looks like gold might well stay down for a time. He probably has better uses for his money. I'm sure he will have plenty of time to buy back in before it really takes off. He obviously has his ear to the ground.
Without reading above this J.K.B. video probably reiterates what he said here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY
Japan is F**ked, and it will happen even faster now that China kicked them in the nuts. The Japs. are out trying to scrounge export business with all the smaller Asian nations since they have lost their export business with China.
How much cooperation do you think they're going to get when they are intentionally devaluing their currency? They're stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Thery're stuck between a rock and a hot place too.
There is bound to be growing demand for glow in the dark Iphones or such.
Rising Sun is now Setting Sun.....
KB & ES both will likely be proven correct, but the question remains, can we all remain solvent long enough to be in the trade when it happens?
STOP TRADING.
You will not be out in time no matter what position you have.
Exit everything. Buy over priced farmland. You're trading calories for worthless paper.
Sorry I dont get it .
Is Kyle Bass, long or short at 13.30 ?? DXM
At least in the U.S. we can downsize to smaller houses. WTF is Mrs. Watanabe gonna do?
shoebox????
We haven't gotten to the point of modular humans quite yet.
Although if someone's gonna do it, its the Japanese.
With all due respecy to Kyle Bass who I like, I think it really classless for him to get up and tout a stock he owns.
That is the crap Jim Cramer does.
Mr. Bass is just following the program at the conference. The picks are quite the attraction.
My apology if your post was an attempt at sarcasm.
I agree with the sentiment that asks "The ultimate question for a fiat money regime is at what point does confidence in money disappear?" This same question kept confronting me while reading "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson. There seemed to be many times at which I'd think this event should be the trigger to crush confidence...but it wasn't. Nothing seems to matter until it matters.
Given the state of public awareness here in the US, I lament that the triggering event to the currency crisis will be something akin to pics of Kim Kardashians stretch-marks or an abrupt cancellation of the South Park series.
Initially yes. Then the derps/serfs will go to the grocery store and meet reality.
A large amount of effort is put forth by TPTB to keep the publc awareness low. Thanks to EBT, rising food prices (for now) won't even trigger awareness. The crisis will happen outside the US first, and probably even strengthen the dollar for a short while until it gets sucked down by the undertow of the global collapse. For the average person the wake up will probably happen when gas is $15-$20/gallon, and even then I wouldn't be shocked if the Feds came out with some sort of gasoline susbistence program for a short while before the wheels come off.
Ha ha ha it won't matter if gas goes to $100 a gallon as long as they ratchet it up slowly. I can remember the President promising gas would never hit $1 a gallon and it didn't, for about 6 months.
10 years ago you would have expected $3.50 gas to lead to riots in the street, today you are glad it is that cheap.
Up 10, down 5, up 10, down 5, pretty soon you are up 50 cents and no one noticed.
If you want to slam it up 50 cents all at once, just raise the price $1 and let everyone scream, then back it off 50 cents and the mugs will go "that's more like it" LOL.
PLEASE Tyler can you get us a video?
1. as to time, as long as people are willing to believe the lie because it is vastly more comforting, this can go on well beyond the lifetimes of all current malefactors.
2. The Japanese still have a number of cards to play. They've been nice with the citizen 'til now - that will change. Instead of raising taxes to 70%, they can simply mandate that a portion of every employee's earnings go to purchase of sovereign debt... "for your own safety". once that breach slips by, there will be no end to it. the populace will be forced to exchange labor and treasure for bonds.
The thing about a zombie is, he doesn't know he's dead. He just keeps walking and eating. Its kind of like that movie the sixth sense, where the guy is walking around and can't figure out whats wrong with everyone until he finally figures out he is dead. Maybe we are all economically "dead" and just don't know it. we are fussing and arguing about how to fix it and if it can be fixed and who's fault it is while all the while, it could actually be over and we are just coasting through. It would make sense given those leading this disaster act as if we don't exist and whatever noise or interference we can project is seen as credible as the words of a ghost. There is no Benghazi, there is no debt, there is no birth certificate, there is no radical Islam. It must be, otherwise someone in the media would be reporting it, right?