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The Price Of Copper And 11 Other Recession Indicators That Are Flashing Red

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

There are a dozen significant economic indicators that are warning that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession.  The Dow may have soared past the 15,000 mark, but the economic fundamentals are telling an entirely different story.  If historical patterns hold up, the economy is heading for a very rocky stretch. 

For example, the price of copper is called "Dr. Copper" by many economists because it so accurately forecasts the future direction of the U.S. economy.  And so far this year the price of copper is way down.  But that is not the only indicator that is worrying economists.  Home renovation spending has fallen dramatically, retail spending is crashing in a way not seen since the last recession, manufacturing activity and consumer confidence are both declining, and troubling economic data continues to come pouring out of Asia and Europe. 

So why do U.S. stocks continue to skyrocket?  Will U.S. financial markets be able to continue to be divorced from reality?  Unfortunately, as we have seen so many times in the past, when stocks do catch up with reality they tend to do so very rapidly.  So you better put on your seatbelts because a crash is coming at some point.

But most average Americans are not that concerned with the performance of the stock market.  They just want to be able to go to work, pay the bills and provide for their families.  During the last recession, millions of Americans lost their jobs and millions of Americans lost their homes.  If we have another major recession, that will happen again.  Sadly, it appears that another major recession is quickly approaching.

The following are 12 recession indicators that are flashing red...

#1 The price of copper has traditionally been one of the very best indicators of the future performance of the U.S. economy.  The fact that it is down nearly 20 percent so far this year has many analysts extremely concerned...

Copper's downward trend foreshadows a stock market collapse, according to Societe Generale's famously bearish strategist Albert Edwards, who said equity markets will riot "Japan-style."

"Copper is acting exactly as it did when I wrote about the impotence of liquidity in the face of the (then imminent) 2007 recession. Once again it is giving us an early warning that liquidity will not save risk assets: time to get out of equities," Edwards wrote in his latest research note, on Thursday.

#2 Home renovation spending has fallen back to depressingly-low 2010 levels.

#3 As Zero Hedge recently pointed out, U.S. retail spending is repeating a pattern that we have not seen since the last recession...

Retail sales of clothing is growing at the slowest pace since 2010; but while major store sales are about to drop negative YoY for the first time in over 3 years, the utter collapse in general merchandise sales is worse that at the peak of the last recession at -5%. It seems tough to see how a nation with an economy built on 70% consumption is not in a recessionary environment. And while this alone is a dismal signal for the discretionary upside of the US economy/consumer; as Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg points out real personal income net of transfer receipts plunged at a stunning 5.8% annual rate in Q1. The other seven times we have seen such a collapse, the economy was either in recession of just coming out of one.

#4 Manufacturing activity all over the country is showing signs of slowing down.  In fact, Chicago PMI has dipped below 50 (indicating contraction) for the first time since the last recession.

#5 In April, consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to a nine-month low...

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment declined to 72.3 in April from 78.6 a month earlier. This month’s reading was lower than all 69 estimates in a Bloomberg survey that called for no change from the March number.

#6 NYSE margin debt peaked right before the recession that began in 2002, it peaked right before the financial crisis of 2008, and it is peaking again.

#7 The S&P 500 usually mirrors the performance of Chinese stocks very closely.  That is why it is so alarming that Chinese stocks peaked months ago.  Will the S&P 500 soon follow?

#8 The economic data coming out of the Chinese economy lately has been mostly terrible...

For starters, China’s recent economic data, as massaged as it is to the upside, is downright awful. China’s PMI numbers were the worst in two years. Staffing levels in the Chinese service sector decreased for the first time since January 2009 (remember that year).

China’s LEI also shows no sign of recovery. If anything, it indicates China is heading towards an economic slowdown on par with that of 2008. And if you account for the rampant debt fueling China’s economy you could easily argue that China is posting 0% GDP growth today.

#9 Things just continue to get even worse over in Europe.  Unemployment in both Greece and Spain is now about 27 percent, and the unemployment rate in the eurozone as a whole has just set a brand new all-time record high.

#10 Crude inventories have soared to a record high as demand for energy continues to decline.  As I have written about previously, this is a clear sign that economic activity is slowing down.

#11 Casino spending is usually a strong indicator of the overall health of the U.S. economy.  That is why it is so noteworthy that casino spending is now back to levels that we have not seen since the last recession.

#12 The impact of the sequester cuts is starting to kick in.  According to the Congressional Budget Office, the sequester cuts will cost the U.S. economy about 750,000 jobs this year.

 

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Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:49 | 3542517 pods
pods's picture

Recession?

LOL

Think lower.

pods

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:55 | 3542541 Hayabusa
Hayabusa's picture

I love this ponzi!  The longer it goes on the more time I have to prepare while watching the clueless sheeple continue to spend as though everything is ok.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:06 | 3542555 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Stock market eats like bird and shits like bear.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:44 | 3542682 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh come on.  The guy on BBG (or was it CNBS) said that oil demand is down because of all the electric cars.
For sake of full and open disclosure, I've personally seen more UFOs that electric cars and that's saying something...

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:47 | 3542699 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'All the electric cars'...LOL thats a good one! I don't even see 1 out of 1,000 cars being electric ones around here, and thats being generous its probably more like 1 out of 10,000.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:59 | 3542745 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Oil is down because of electric cars. Delicious!

The Democrat Congressman in the Benghazi hearings today said, Budget cuts caused Benghazi.

Wait till some banker says the economy is in trouble because too many people are saving money!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 20:30 | 3543138 General Decline
General Decline's picture

I'm investing in my son. We are converting his one wheel drive go-kart to a live axle tonight. It's really cool watching a 10 year old lay down a nicer bead with the MIG welder than 99% of the adults I know.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:13 | 3543518 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Fair enough, but there is one major factor that is turning many bears into bulls: housing.

US housing prices are up 10% year-over-year.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/05/chart-us-housing-prices-up-10-over-last.html

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:13 | 3543628 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

and exactly where would housing be without never before seen criminally controlled interest rates?  the growth of sales and appreciation are all false 

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 03:18 | 3543771 trembo slice
trembo slice's picture

I'm lazy... is it $40 or $45 billion worth of MBS the Fed is buying from the banks?  In addition to another $40 billion dashed in there for the hell of it. Regardless, that kind of money EACH MONTH sure helps ignite some economic activity... no one is denying that.

We're just ensuring another bust.  It's already sewn. 

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 04:46 | 3543804 draug
draug's picture

This all just shows that government stimulus is always temporary.

They managed to postpone 2008 for five years. Good on them. Now time is up, and we're back more or less exactly in the same place, except this time there's no more stimulus.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 06:58 | 3543862 markmotive
markmotive's picture

I don't disagree that we may be setting the stage for another crisis in the future. But right now many investors are bullish because of the housing data.

 

 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 18:25 | 3542809 SunRise
SunRise's picture

I just spotted one in the tread of a semi that went by; oh wait . . . there's another in the rear tire too!

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 06:38 | 3543851 onthesquare
onthesquare's picture

I think they are counting golf carts

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 10:49 | 3544580 toady
toady's picture

He probably thinks the Prius is an electric car.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 11:35 | 3544742 suicidalpsychologist
suicidalpsychologist's picture

Did you mean, 100 000 ?

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 20:10 | 3542925 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Knukles - In Silicon Valley you can see plenty of electric cars. Parking lots have large designated sections with chargers and all stations are in use. You can see some desperate drivers driving around and looking for a free charging station. In general - it is almost impossible to find any parking there - outside of the lunch hour.

That's Silicon Valley - it is probably unique. 

I agree with you - it was total BS comment by CNBS. That's why I stopped watching them looong time ago.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 21:43 | 3543328 howenlink
howenlink's picture

Four stupid people work in the same stupid area that has only three stupid chargers.  So one stupid person has to drive around looking for a free charging station.  How stupid is that?

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:00 | 3543366 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

electric car...waste of time, crippled for lack of an electrical outlet, and talk about the misconception that they're clean, for heavens sake their eco friendliness is just because they've been able to push the emissions back onto the power generation industry.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:10 | 3543513 pods
pods's picture

Well at least the lithium shoots itself out of the ground for the batteries like skittles out of a Unicorn's Shit Shooter?

pods

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:39 | 3543570 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Like mission impossible, the electric car will self destruct when the  lithium-ion batteries will catch on fire.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:54 | 3543600 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Yeah... about that.

According to the SME's "Executive briefing" momo spam I get in my inbox every morning, on May 4th, Boeing declared their intent to pursue lithium-aluminum alloys in their 777s.

"Aluminum-Lithium Alloys Could Be Part Of Boeing 777-9. The Puget Sound Business Journal (5/4, Wilhelm, Subscription Publication) reported the Boeing 777-9, "the biggest twin-engine model Boeing...is planning to build, may be partly fabricated from a new breed of aluminum-lithium alloys, lighter and stronger than the aerospace-grade aluminum now used." The article noted Boeing has not committed to the material yet, but Alcoa "is pouring money into facilities to produce aluminum lithium alloys, expecting it to be incorporated in new aircraft including Boeing's planned 777 and perhaps the 737 Max." According to the article, the possibility of the plane weighing less while carrying more passengers "might be a key to competing against the formidable Airbus A350-1000." 

So, yeah, I guess that lithium had better be jumping right of the ground, and not pursue it's own agenda of being a rare-ish metal.  It has a relatively instable nuclear structure, and certainly is not as common as iron or carbon.  

Whatever your politics, it's not the thing that's going to save us, no matter if it's used for batteries (and for the record, I'm a fan of Lithium Ion batteries- I remember NiCads, and they sucked,) or in aircraft components.

But whatever, this is the hedge- so start stacking Lithium, bitchez.  Just don't forget that you want to keep it in mineral oil, and not air or water.  (For those of you who don't know because you're not in the industry, we buy literal tonnage of aluminum from Alcoa every day of the week- Them "pouring money" into anything is like Microsoft, 3m or McDonald's making a move.)

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 06:47 | 3543857 onthesquare
onthesquare's picture

Li-ion batteries are fantastic for weight to power ratios.  Their only down fall is they demand respect.  Charging and discharging must have the proper circuitry to protect the cells from being damaged or expoding.  If the Lithium gets wet then you have an extreme exothermic reaction that can explode.  These devices have killed people.

Boeing had a bad experience buying cheap crap batteries made in China and owned by Sony.  Panasonic cells are the purest and should only be bought with a charge protection circuit or at the least a thermol shutdown if they are overcharged too hard.  Thermol shutdown will not stop the chemical reaction when they get wet.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:57 | 3543672 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

Truth, the majority of electric cars reside in California.

On my way to work every morning in Beverly Hills, I see at least 30 prius, and that's before I even get to my parking garage. As an added bonus, every other one of them is sporting one or more Obama bumper stickers. I even saw one that had a license plate that read "FRESPCH"

I live in fucking hell, these people REALLY are that fucking retarded. They don't even know who the fuck they are supporting. The guy with the FREE SPEECH license plate rockin the Obama sticker... are you frucking kidding me? HR347???? DO YOU EVEN KNOW WHAT THAT IS YOU SHIT SUCKING DUNCE???

It takes everything I have not to light each and every one of these cars on fire, can't stand the sight of them.

Fucking boutique environmentalist libtard scum.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 02:21 | 3543753 aphlaque_duck
aphlaque_duck's picture

Environmentalists are mostly the same people who demand we provide food and medicine for every naked savage the world over. You know, stuff we produce and ship with OIL.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 02:21 | 3543754 aphlaque_duck
aphlaque_duck's picture

Environmentalists are mostly the same people who demand we provide food and medicine for every naked savage the world over. You know, stuff we produce and ship with OIL.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 03:03 | 3543768 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

Not to mention, what the fuck do they think tires are mostly made of????

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 08:14 | 3543965 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Nice rant! LOL

I live in TX and recently visited a friend in L.A. I think I can understand your anger now. La la land out there for sure. But at least they aren't advocating nuking the entire ME/NA region like many of my fellow Texans.

Both sides are being brainwashed in different directions. Again, LOL, nice rant!

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 06:26 | 3543844 Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

"Fucking boutique environmentalist libtard scum"

..aka useful idiots

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 01:30 | 3543710 Redhotfill
Redhotfill's picture

I remember seeing one of those electric cars at Disneyland in the 70's in one of those futuristic exhibits of things to come.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:11 | 3543387 markettime
markettime's picture

All of these indicators are bullish in the new era of investing by Bernanke. I am going to invest everything I have in SPY calls. Warren Buffet said the market will go higher, and he for sure preaches the Gospel truth. 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:40 | 3543437 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

SPY? That Korean singer? How will you make money by calling him? Not sarcastic I really want to know?

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 08:22 | 3543988 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Here let me google that for you - http://lmgtfy.com/?q=SPY+ETF

 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:09 | 3542543 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

That could eventually spell very bad news for silver production.

From Wiki...

The metal is primarily produced as a byproduct of electrolytic copper refining, gold, nickel, and zinc refining, and by application of the Parkes process on lead metal obtained from lead ores that contain small amounts of silver.

Which in this new Bizzaro World means that silver output collapsing along with copper demand can only result in falling silver prices...

 

And LME copper stockpiles are up from 220,000 to 600,000 tonnes over the past six months...

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#lmestocks...

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 21:17 | 3543268 Cobra
Cobra's picture

Let 'em fall, brother! I'm not done yet!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:57 | 3543478 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

silver output collapsing will result in falling silver prices? As I recall when demand remains unchanged and supply decreases prices rise.  ?

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:42 | 3543579 Curiously_Crazy
Curiously_Crazy's picture

You must have missed where he said:

"Which in this new Bizzaro World..."

Stood out like dogs balls to me.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:09 | 3542560 kill switch
kill switch's picture

In depression since 2008   HELLO!!!!!

 

bty +1000 Pods

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:41 | 3542657 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

thank you!!!!!!!

Recession????.

Recovery????

kiss my fucking ass with that bullshit...........

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:46 | 3542689 knukles
knukles's picture

Well, when Krugster find it handy he says we're in a depression, too.
Funny none of his NYT and Cadillac Limousine Liberal buds agree with him yet he remains a darling of the Libtard Community.

 

oh hummm

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:00 | 3543487 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> he remains a darling of the Libtard Community.

I'm assuming libtard = liberal.  If you think Krugman is a darling of the liberal community, you obviously don't know the liberal community.  But that's ok, liberal means not right wing drone to most anyway.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:25 | 3543545 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

liberal means not right wing drone to most libtards anyway.

Fixed...it...for...ya.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:50 | 3543592 knukles
knukles's picture

The "Liberal" community out here on the section of the WestCoast in which I reside used to be "liberals" then became something new and different/improved referred to as "Progressives" and since have abandoned that handle for another metamorphosis (in name only, like the jar of MonkryShineButtWax that says "new and improved package same useless shit inside") into something called an "Optimist"
They love Al Gore, Obalmah, Hillary, Bill, Joe Biden is solid and sane, they are hard core Democratic Party Regulars, believe that they are smarter than the average bear and should be able to tell us what to do but it not be applicable to them, are "gainfully" employed by some governmental entity, program or sucking at the teat big time, think that private property should be able to be confiscated under "Their" circumstances, nobody should own guns, everybody must attend public schools, their dietary restrictions should apply universally,...

Oh, I know what they stand for in my neck of the woods.

To wit the new bumper-sticker;  Hillary/Michelle 2016

And no, they have no connection whatsoever to the classical liberal.
In fact would be prone to think that anybody espousing "classical liberal" policies should be disenfranchised, removed from the voter roles and sent to a reeducation camp.

PS  They adore the NYT, MSNBC, NPR, Nazi Pelouzi, Tom Freidman and Paul Krugman.  And think CNN is a solid news source, albeit somewhat right of center.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:36 | 3543655 RebelDevil
RebelDevil's picture

The article should be renamed "The Price Of Copper And 11 Other Indicators That Are Flashing Red" - leaving the word recession out.

The economy has been pretty much stagnant (stagflation) since the last crash, but this is no longer so. The economy is going get much worse here on out as all of the indicators show contraction and are signalling another crash in asset bubbles in the near future.

Dow going to 20,000!? Doubt it. More like going to 5,000 (that is if Bernake doesn't trigger a hyperinflation before that).

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 01:56 | 3543735 Helix6
Helix6's picture

No way DOW stops at 20K.  Remember "DOW 36000"?  It's only a matter of a few trillion more freshly minted bills.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:49 | 3542707 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Without Bernank bailing out all the banks and shoveling in probably $20 trillion into stocks/bonds....this country would be Zimbabwe! Real world depression, while the top 1% never had it better. 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:22 | 3542607 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

"it appears that another major recession is quickly approaching"

Somebody knock that first domino over.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:51 | 3543595 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

The casino marker could be down because none of the slots in Vegas are paying. Tighter than ever. Stay with the tables.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:25 | 3542618 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Brace urselves:

 

 

Hong Kong Homes Face 20% Price Drop as Banks Raise Rates


 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-21/hong-kong-homes-face-20-price-d...

 

This is gonna trickle down to 'Down Under', too.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:50 | 3542710 knukles
knukles's picture

By Tong and Wong, eh?
Reminds me of a story from one of my golf buds who just came back from a business trip to Asia.  He was in Hong Kong playing a round of golf with his wife and they had a nice little old Chinese lady double bagging the round who spoke next to no English.  He was having trouble, chopping at the ball with his swing so the little old Chinese lady caddy says to him in broken English; "You need two Chinese caddies; Tem Po and Ti Ming."
Hey, the Chinese lady told the joke....

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:17 | 3543399 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Prices would start to drop if lots of people started selling, trying to realise the gains from the increase in prices. However, because a lot of people in Australia still believe that housing prices never fall, and will continue to go up because of population increase, housing shortage blah blah blah, I can't see the possibility of people selling in distress becoming reality for a while.

Having said that, I'd like it if housing prices were to come back to historical averages, and actually go down to say 3 to 3.5 times average annual salary, but that's just so I could buy a house with cash.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:35 | 3543558 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

No worries Mate, the Chinese might just help you out pushing house prices lower with a drop in Australian imports as their economy slows. The prices there seem pretty out of whack right now similar to many other places. Correction is inevitable...timing is difficult but I recommend patience.....let it revert to the mean and then you can grab two houses for the price of one.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 21:15 | 3543262 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

FLASH CRASH??????????????????????????????????????????????

 

 

 

 

You ain't seen nuthin' yet!

 

 

 

 

 

 

It will happen so fast. the mom and pop "investors" will be dashed on the rocks.........

 

 

 

bbbbbbbb baby you ain't seen nuthin' yet.............

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:34 | 3543429 Aeternus
Aeternus's picture

Zimbabwe here we come, start learning how to pan for gold.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deuC8GPr31A

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:08 | 3543507 PiltdownMan
PiltdownMan's picture

Look at the dispersion of Yen forecasts. Nobody has a clue of what is about to happen.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/05/08/land-of-the-lost-dive...

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:50 | 3542518 negative rates
negative rates's picture

My dashboard was doing the same thing.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:02 | 3542551 max2205
max2205's picture

I hear music still....

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:02 | 3542552 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Nothing a bit of electrical tape can't fix. Then you enter happy land again.Hakuna matata!

Miffed;-)

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:06 | 3542557 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Thanks man, I tried it and it worked, everythings fine now.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:09 | 3542564 espirit
espirit's picture

Prep some duct tape and bailing wire also...

You just never know.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:50 | 3542520 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Maybe.  Or it may be statistics with wide margin errors.

 

Red light....green light...red light.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:15 | 3543635 Schlomo Bergstein
Schlomo Bergstein's picture

QE1-4eva is the equivalent of putting tape over the "check the engine" light.

Manipulating the gold price is the equivalent of putting tape over the "check the 'check the engine light' light".

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:56 | 3542522 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Dow 20K and S&P at 2000 or bust!

BTFD was so 2012.

Buy the bubble, boy!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:54 | 3542527 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There is no market for true price discovery anymore.  who fucking knows what copper's price really is, and in what?  Please stop with this bullshit already.  They must destroy the market in order to fix it, etc. etc.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:08 | 3542559 espirit
espirit's picture

There will always be demand for copper...and lead, silver is just a byproduct.

Game on.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 02:10 | 3543748 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Well, I heard they use silver in them there fancy drones and ballistic missiles...  Seems pretty handy to me.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:29 | 3542628 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

LawofPhysics,

I thought it was the village that needed to destroyed so that it could be rebuilt. Or not fall into enemy's hands. But, may be it's the same.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:53 | 3542721 knukles
knukles's picture

William Calley relied on that same line of reasoning once if my memory serves me well.  Or was it Paul Krugman?

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:53 | 3543596 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Given the whole world is a politically run economy we don't know the true price of anything from copper to homes to labor.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:53 | 3543597 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Given the whole world is a politically run economy we don't know the true price of anything from copper to homes to labor.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:55 | 3543602 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I should add that we know that the current prices of bonds, money and debt are false. When they get repriced everything else will get a jolt.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:21 | 3543639 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

I would think that the price of government worldwide is over 50%.

What a horrible waste of the private sector's work output.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:54 | 3542531 Strider52
Strider52's picture

"the U.S. economy is heading into a recession".

Like, we ever left recession?

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 18:54 | 3542884 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Yea, the Titanic is 1000 feet under water, approaching the bottom at 60 MPH and is in imminent danger of sinking.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 07:07 | 3543872 Clashfan
Clashfan's picture

Dude, your avatar is, like, totally bitchin, man!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:55 | 3542540 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

G/S ratio at 61-1.  Something is about to break very badly.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:55 | 3542542 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

1980 = "Dr. Copper"

2013 = "Dr. Detroit"

~~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_A8Xe9M0NY

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 02:17 | 3543751 Redhotfill
Redhotfill's picture

WTF!  Every single Dr. Detroit Video is showing up as video ot available!  Help us Jocko Homo.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 04:07 | 3543788 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Any of you, Jocko Homos, touch me, & I'll kill you...

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:56 | 3542545 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

Wish the Bernanke was here so I could hump him.

Honey....mix me another drink!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:15 | 3542582 dcohen
dcohen's picture

Do you really want to hump on this:

http://i.imgur.com/QJTfwHE.png

 

???

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:39 | 3542662 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

d....lmfao....thx.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 16:58 | 3542548 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

All that matter is the blind confidence of the people in the recovery.

Didn't you learn that in economics folks? Economics are 90% feeling, 10% facts... nowadays it's more like 99.9% feeling, 0.1% facts but eh... The sheeple mood decides the state of the economy... and the MSM is doing their hardest to make it look like it's really a recovery. As long as the sheeple get their credit line... everything will be fine... print print print motherfarkers!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:50 | 3542711 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And yet for all the propaganda and trickery, all they've really bought is a bit of time....reality always comes back sooner or later no matter what.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:10 | 3542567 sunny
sunny's picture

Did anyone notice that copper is up 10% in the last three days?  Just saying.

sunny

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 18:55 | 3542888 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

That was me; I bought a handful of pre-82 pennies.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:10 | 3542568 de3de8
de3de8's picture

No worries, Ben's at the wheel.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:12 | 3542574 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

Crude overpriced and climbing.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 21:48 | 3543340 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

actually this is just what happens when money is printed. Sorry, other things besides stocks and bonds also go up with QE. 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:13 | 3542576 devo
devo's picture

Sasquatch recovery.

Hear about it, never see it.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:53 | 3542713 SheepDog-One
Wed, 05/08/2013 - 18:48 | 3542875 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

When you plant shit seeds you get what Randy?  That's right, shit weeds.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 02:15 | 3543750 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

You feel that, boys?  Shitquake.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:15 | 3542581 cheetahbaby
cheetahbaby's picture

For a variety of reasons the MSM is obsessed that the first bi-racial president is not seen as failure. Bet there are a few "F's" on those college transcripts as well. CB

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 18:22 | 3542633 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

What I find funny is that George W Bush had higher GPA than John F Kerry. 2.??  Kerry only got a B in French after spending some time in France b/c his father was an ambassador.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:54 | 3542727 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The hard liquor that comes in plastic bottles mostly.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 20:08 | 3543079 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Make your own. 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:17 | 3542589 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

 

 

The next thing that comes is more than likely gonna require resusutation

NURSE: "clear....pop.....clear....pop...the patients heart aint beating yet doc...clear..."

DOC:  "I am calling it, TOD was about 1.4 Qaudrillion in., Nurse, where did I put my gun?  We are gonna need it to get out of here once the public

           finds out we killed the patiient"

NURSE: "I told you to much stumulus was going to end badly, we should have never opened that drip up that much"

I wouldnt call that a recession.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:27 | 3542606 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Extremely cheap textiles.....also. I just bought three 450 count Egyptian cotton mattress pads on Ebay for $30 each with free shipping. You can grab beautiful leather belts, cloths belts, you name it soooooo cheap now it's really amazing. All Brand New!

 

Houses, cars, textiles....all droping like lead....good time to grab stuff you might need in the futre BUT DON'T BUY JUNK!

 

...and for Heavens sake, Pleeeeze don't buy another iCrap. You have enuff of those already. Only stuff you really need.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 19:03 | 3542908 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Sir, lead is not dropping.

 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:29 | 3542627 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

I need only one counterpoint to smash your well thought out 12 points... Bernanke Put.  You can't even BTFD, because there is no more "D", just Buy, Buy, Buy!!!!!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:35 | 3542641 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Benny's holding a full house...that beats any recession.  Keep buying until Benny hits the sell button.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:55 | 3542730 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Full house my ass....all Bernank's holding is a pair of 2's.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 20:16 | 3543101 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

And both of them are clubs

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:58 | 3542740 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The sell button doesn't exist anymore. Only the buy works.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:39 | 3542660 10mm
10mm's picture

Im buying bullets of all calibers.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 19:00 | 3542899 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Talk about return on investment.

 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:42 | 3543444 player333
player333's picture

Where?  :)

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:41 | 3542667 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYCESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

 

 

 

All that red you see is just the Recovery Summer 4 Signs straight ahead!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:46 | 3542694 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

Deflation, collapsing infrastructure, evaporating rule of law... all masked by Keynesian stimulus and government PR. Runaway train. Going to fast to jump off now. Gulp!

No debt, some gold and silver, cash, little house owned free and clear (with a well, room for permaculture and greenhouse and chicken coop), a free and clear automobile (economy model), basic supplies. Fasten your seatbelts. But we've got time to prepare and set all this up. These clowns can keep things afloat for longer than you think.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:37 | 3543432 PhilofOz
PhilofOz's picture

Ditto. But no guns or ammo, I'm in Australia.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:24 | 3543543 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> These clowns can keep things afloat for longer than you think.

Good, I'd just as soon they kicked the can as far as possible.  Living is good, unsustainable, but good.  I'm 2.5 years out of the system, but I'll take all the additional time the con men can pull off.  Free and clear five fertile acres, check.  Free and clear truck, check.  Debt free, check.  All the other paraphernalia consider a staple of the survivalist nutbag brigade, check.  But I've got 40 fruit trees in the ground that could use two more years under their belt.  And I'm still learning the gardening, canning, and drying skills.  More time is good, plus I'm having a ball.  Kick the can baby!!!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 17:52 | 3542719 robochess
robochess's picture

ZH, ultimately you're right.... but it is so fucking boring hearing about how dead we all are and yet the banksters and polliwogs march to glory for the fatherland that is fading(?)....... BIG MOTHERFUCKIN' MONEY TRUMPS OPINIONS, GUESSES, AND THE LITTLE GUY.  Thank you, Jamie, may I have another?

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 18:04 | 3542763 rajc
rajc's picture

come on ZH learn from the wiemar or india or china that as long as they print money the stock market will go up. specially now that no other asset except Stocks are going up.  

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 18:06 | 3542768 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

DOW 30,000!!!!


Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:15 | 3543521 Bear
Bear's picture

30,000 dollars each woth a dime

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 19:25 | 3542954 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

If copper is becoming far less expensive, then those who look after the Country's infrastructure might be able to heave a sigh of relief - http://www.supercircuits.com/resources/blog/rise-of-copper-theft-infographic

Maybe the cops in Detroit might be able to spend more time doing more useful duties - http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/19/opinion/dismantling-detroit.html?_r=0, and http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2012/10/copp-o13.html

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:26 | 3543415 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Nobody's looking after the 'infrastructure' (excepting where unnecessary public union projects can be performed using tax money). Think of congress/state legislature/county board as living in a house with holes the size of softballs in the roof, doors off their hinges, and carpet worn through to the foundation/subfloor. Their idea of 'improvement', instead of fixing the roof, doors, and carpet, is to go out and buy a 60" widescreen and a tarp just big enough for them to fit under.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 19:47 | 3542977 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STMh9xCdzr8

 

Industrial Disease

 

 

Warning lights are flashing down at Quality Control
Somebody threw a spanner and they threw him in the hole
There's rumors in the loading bay and anger in the town
Somebody blew the whistle and the walls came down
There's a meeting in the boardroom they're trying to trace the smell
There's leaking in the washroom there's a sneak in personnel
Somewhere in the corridors someone was heard to sneeze
'goodness me could this be Industrial Disease?
The caretaker was crucified for sleeping at his post
They're refusing to be pacified it's him they blame the most
The watchdog's got rabies the foreman's got fleas
And everyone's concerned about Industrial Disease
There's panic on the switchboard tongues are tied in knots
Some come out in sympathy some come out in spots
Some blame the management some the employees
And everybody knows it's the Industrial Disease
The work force is disgusted downs tools and walks
Innocence is injured experience just talks
Everyone seeks damages and everyone agrees
That these are 'classic symptoms of a monetary squeeze'
On ITV and BBC they talk about the curse
Philosophy is useless theology is worse
History boils over there's an economics freeze
Sociologists invent words that mean 'Industrial Disease'
Doctor Parkinson declared 'I'm not surprised to see you here
You've got smokers cough from smoking, brewer's droop from drinking beer
I don't know how you came to get the Bette Davis knees
But worst of all young man you've got Industrial Disease'
He wrote me a prescription he said 'you are depressed
But I'm glad you came to see me to get this off your chest
Come back and see me later - next patient please
Send in another victim of Industrial Disease'
I go down to Speaker's Corner I'm thunderstruck
They got free speech, tourists, police in trucks
Two men say they're Jesus, one of them must be wrong
There's a protest singer singing a protest song - he says
'they wanna have a war to keep us on our knees
They wanna have a war to keep their factories
They wanna have a war to stop us buying Japanese
They wanna have a war to stop Industrial Disease
They're pointing out the enemy to keep you deaf and blind
They wanna sap your energy incarcerate your mind
They give you Rule Brittania, gassy beer, page three
Two weeks in Espana and Sunday striptease'
Meanwhile the first Jesus says 'I'd cure it soon
Abolish monday mornings and friday afternoons'
The other one's on a hunger strike he's dying by degrees
How come Jesus gets Industrial Disease

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 19:41 | 3543003 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

"According to the Congressional Budget Office, the sequester cuts will cost the U.S. economy about 750,000 jobs this year."

You mean the sequester increase reductions?  And while that job number sounds big, we're saving $85B with the sequester, which is well over $100K per job "lost or not created".  I'll take that deal.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 19:56 | 3543046 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Personally in tired of the 'heading into' recession talk.  What's next....another 20% of the workforce gets laid off and when things stabilize for the last 50% then this recession is over? LOL.

It depends on who you ask.......all the great wallstreet numbers don't mean fuck in tent city.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 20:12 | 3543092 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Wow, a tent. I'm thinking bridge. 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:08 | 3543508 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Got one for sale if your interested.

 

Got views of the shitty.

 

I'll throw in a tent.

 

 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 20:10 | 3543084 venturen
venturen's picture

Recession? Once everyone on wall street maes a billion a year from the FED....on average we will all be doing better!

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:43 | 3543128 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

The United States of America: Apparently still seen as the only game in town for listed companies.

Hunh.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 20:56 | 3543213 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"So why do U.S. stocks continue to skyrocket? "

 

85 billion a month.

Every time QE financial fraud ended, the market has faltered as the truth started to come out.  Financial fraud is what is holding the market up.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 21:13 | 3543258 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Why is the stock market at all time highs? Don't you read Zero Hedge?

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 21:16 | 3543264 Element
Element's picture

Shhhhh! .... don't mention the YEN ...

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 21:43 | 3543324 rsdude
rsdude's picture

quick question to tylerD ... why hasn't anyone posted news about argentine currency tactics? 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 21:46 | 3543333 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

13. The delivery of PM's

14. The shortage of PM's

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:00 | 3543365 Quonk
Quonk's picture

...the word that can't be spoken...Depression.  But don't worry, historians will have no trouble identifying it as such a decade from now.  Until then we'll delude ourselves with a different d-word: Denial.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:06 | 3543377 jtlien
jtlien's picture

Next huge inventory increases will be in smartphones.

Apple,Google,Samsung,Nokia,Blackberry all fighting for market share in a soon to be glutted market.

What is beyond mobile?   What happens when everyone has a 4 cpu mobile with hundreds of apps loaded?

This may make the 1970's crash in calculators seem tame by comparison.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:33 | 3543417 AssFire
AssFire's picture

ACTUALLY 13 INDICATORS: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100720158

Upon reviewing the source I'd recommend:

"Sell in May and go chug Belvedere in crushed ice buckets with lemon twists"

Might be your best and funnest month in your life while also saving your ass.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:30 | 3543421 JebusKhrist
JebusKhrist's picture

"#12 The impact of the sequester cuts is starting to kick in.  According to the Congressional Budget Office, the sequester cuts will cost the U.S. economy about 750,000 jobs this year."

 

Those 750K jobs are from a retarded market and are a missalocation or resources in the first place.

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:08 | 3543509 Bear
Bear's picture

Securitization and not Sequestration 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 22:32 | 3543424 JebusKhrist
JebusKhrist's picture
Non existent Capitalism and "unfettered markets" will be blamed with more government and more regulations proposed as the solution
Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:02 | 3543493 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Jeeeezuz Gangnam Style!

@Michael Snyder:

Your posts are good, but really, I hope you have some laughter in your life.

 

Been meaning to tell you this for a long while now.

 

Seriously, lighten up a little.  You're among friends in this choir.   Doesn't have to take away from the seriousness of your subject either.

 

Peace and love and happiness, my friend!

 

 

 

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:21 | 3543536 jomama
jomama's picture

where's that fucking metal i ordered back in mid april???!!!

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:37 | 3543565 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

You mean a renter isn't going to dump $80k on a kitchen renovation? How strange. Where's his patriotism?

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:40 | 3543575 kurt
kurt's picture

LOOK at the Baltic Dry Index ..... another one bites the dust ...

Wed, 05/08/2013 - 23:53 | 3543599 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The problem today is that the price of Copper is not derived by it's physical demand and supply but more by the speculative positions standing long or short on the commodity exchange like any other traded commodity, stock or currency. The price of any commodity is whatever the largest player in the market wants it to be.

The basic mechanism of price discovery (based on demand and supply for actual use) of anything traded on an exchange has been terminally infected by speculators having access to unlimited funds and super fast computers for trading leading to volatile price swings. This has been made worse by the launch of ETFs for anything and everything under the sun by the financial community.

The only thing driving commodity prices up or down worldwide are market operators armed with cheap money provided by central bankers and super fast computers. This is causing a havoc in the lives of rest of the population and pushing them towards poverty as they can no longer afford the basic necessities of life.

Regulators are either hand in glove with the banksters or are too slow to react and take ages to identify and take measures to solve the problems. Total ban on speculation and the reinforcement of Glass Steagall Act is strictly required to bring relief to the man on the street.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 01:20 | 3543702 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

cut and paste shill alert.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:13 | 3543627 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

The Stock Market is having one last party before the party ends and the bill comes due and the shooting begins.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:22 | 3543640 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

~"In April, consumer confidence unexpectedly fell..."~

I laugh my ass off every time I see this term used in the MSM. Yeah, "unexpectedly dropped" my ass. Watch for it time and time again when things don't go the way TPTB want them to. Comical as hell.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:27 | 3543642 knukles
knukles's picture

....

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:33 | 3543656 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

"It has been said that many of the top investment and commercial bankers of the world love to stand on their balconies tossing off red hot pennies to the small, in-firmed, dirty, disease ridden, undernourished, impoverished and uneducated pauper offspring of the newly dis-enriched middle class."

 

Nicely done, Sir.

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:26 | 3543646 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Yes, the hazzard blinker that is the copper spot price has been on for quite a while now. 

Thu, 05/09/2013 - 00:27 | 3543648 W74
W74's picture

#2 is because people who're on the verge of losing their homes or are uncertain about their jobs don't fix up their homes.  This has reverberating effects because contractors aren't working as much and not raking in the bucks.  I knew guys who walked away from jobs in the early 2000s who'd love to have that work now.

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