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Stanley Druckenmiller: "Bernanke Running The Most Inappropriate Monetary Policy In History"
When three hedge fund titans all explain in words so simple a financial media channel morning show host can grasp that there is nothing behind this rally but smoke, mirrors, and a bearded academic, it seems more than a few people start to pay attention. Following Paul Singer and Kyle Bass, Stanley Druckenmiller "loves the market short-term, but hates it long-term," since Bernanke is "running the most inappropriate monetary policy in history." He warns, for it is a warning, that "markets will melt up," until the Fed is forced to tighten. He recommends shorting the AUD, and sees the commodity super-cycle as over, because, "supply-demand... is deadly." He also likes Google but not "tech companies that engage in financial engineering under advice of hedge fund managers."
Stan Druckenmiller:
- Decade of fast commodity demand is over
- China leverage and misallocation of resources similar to US 2005-2008.
- Bernanke running the "most inappropriate monetary policy" given circumstances in history
- No bear market until the Fed changes monetary policy'
- *DRUCKENMILLER: BERNANKE RUNNING INNAPROPRIATE MONETARY POLICY
- *DRUCKENMILLER: OVER SHORT-TERM, I EXPECT A ‘MELT UP’
- *DRUCKENMILLER: MARKETS ARE GOING TO GO UP, NOT DOWN
- Sees Australian Dollar Coming Down ‘Hard’
- Avoid commodity currencies in general
- He likes Google; does not like other tech companies which engage in financial engineering under advice of hedge fund managers
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so what would force the fed to change course?
when people realize they are overpaying for shit sandwiches.
"smoke, mirrors and a bearded academic"...amen
The Fed will never change course. It's just a matter of waiting for the hull to fill with water. They already hit the iceberg in 08.
When "money" leaves the stock market, where will it be going? Perhaps into a store of value?
@waterwitch
Nothing. Their hand will have to be forced. For example, bond prices start falling precipitously or roving zombie masses of unemployed start an OWS-style economic showdown.
How about an oil spike to $200. That will fix it for them.
Was just having this conversation with a tech guy who trades like I do.
Something big will break, California, Spain, France, China, and Ben & Co, having squandered all their ammo on saving the Jew bankers' hides, will have to pull back, salvage what they can, and suffer the return of free markets.
And I do mean SUFFER.
Sure. But will it happen before or after Bernanke leaves office in 7 months? I expect after, but what do I know.
morning wood and the kids inadvertently running into the bedroom when a throw down wrestle is going on is <inappropriate>
Ben "where's your shalom bitchez" Justtryandspankme, however, is a tad more than inappropriate.
when did crimes against humanity get so watered down to inappropriate ???
well... look at this kid on how he handles the cop
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pSasFQIyH8&sns=em
and yet... no American Adult has a clue what to do against Bernanke or Obama.... like this 12 year old does.
he's my hero of the day actually :)
there is hope.......and he's twelve years old
The Stonecutters control everything: White House, Congress, courts, police, media, etc. Absolutely nothing can be done unless people will come to streets and fight - and I really mean fight. The OWS movement tried it peacefully only to be beaten, shot at, sprayed, etc.
He hurts his case by choosing such a petty matter .... cops and fed ex delivery people are entitled to common courtesy .... it's kind of a sucky stand off ! Smacks of the universal socialist death wish !
Guillotines.
so what would force the fed to change course?
A "Crack-up Boom".
And then the pundits will observe that only then would a good and competent manager of the economy, deem it wise to change course.; circumstances dictating action meme.
...The Turbo button is only for short bursts.... Now you broke the bloody ship !!!...
Appologies to Galaxy Quest.....
Bernanke......."Look! I have one job on this lousy ship, it's *stupid*, but I'm gonna do it! Okay?"
and MY appologies to Galaxy Quest
Not very timely advice..... the markets have already melted up.
I'm thinking that perhaps we ain't seen nothin' yet.
Bubbles always rise fastest right before the pop. They still have to make DOW 36000 come true.
Seems as soon as Druckenmiller said this everything turned downward.
Did Drunkenmiller say this last year as well? If so then he has some credibility. Otherwise he is just another FOMO.
commodity collapse....drumroll.......deflation........................
I completely disagree. there will be no drumroll.
lots of oil drums will be rolling off of commodity traders balance sheets when commodities get ripped.............................
Hi Kito,
What is interesting is that his view is more complex than that. he sees overheating in the US (hence tightening of rates) yet bust in other parts of the world (deflation).
But then if China prints money, what would the Chinese do? Maybe buy USD? It is going to be epic and complicated to navigate.
This is a super tricky scenario.
I doubt that when hte FEd stops QE first and consider raising rates, I doubt that treasuries will yield 1.70% for 10 years.
I think Short treasuries and long tobacco shares for me.
China leverage and misallocation of resources similar to US 2005-2008.
And with roughly four times the population of the US, what could possibly go wrong when the bubble bursts?
china can kill this market on a whim. with or without the printing psycho changing policy.
oops. i called it a market. i meant to say "china can kill this policy tool for transferring wealth UP the ladder on a whim.
As long as they can trade worthless Fed and Treasury notes for gold, I don't think they'll pull the trigger.
They need to get Bernanke in cuffs and 5150 him.
Druckenmiller = Captain Obvious
The guy has returned 30% per annum since 1986. I'll listen to him over you all day, every day
The guy has returned 30% per annum since 1986. I'll listen to him over you all day, every day
I hate that phrase 'melt up'. It's part of the hedge fund lexicon along with 'fill the gap' or 'edge'.
Good for Stanley.
But, Zerohedge was first!
- The effectiveness of monetary policy was last discredited in the 1970s. The persistent attempts to revive growth with easy money led to stagflation. The real world has turned to be opposite to the favored positions of the economics profession: the financial market is not only inefficient but systematically bubble-prone.
Trying to bring back yesterday through monetary growth will eventually bring inflation, not growth. This is what the Gov’t wants in order to ‘pay off the Debt’.
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-23/money-cannot-buy-growth
Einstein's definition of insanity seems applicable, too!
Just ignore Stan and get real advice from Joe Kernan, Anjew Ross Sorkin,Cramer, Squicky and Steve (I blow Bernanke every day this year) LIESman
First you better take a sedative and keep a barf bag handy. Against my better judgement, I tuned into CNBS yesterday to see what crap they were polluting the airways with and could barely stomach it.
So, IF Drunkenmiller is correct, would any of you like to venture what that implies for PM'S?
Physical or paper?
Commodities down = gold down.
Not necessarily. Commodities can go down due to lack of demand for final finished goods. Gold isn't tied into that process, but it is tied up in baskets with other commodities, such as the CRB.
The problem is this: PMs are one of the only ways to hold money outside of the system. BUT, if real interest rates go up, PMs will suffer due to the increased opportunity cost of holding them. So, I think the only course through Scylla and Charybdis is to hold PMs until enough financial assets are destroyed that interest rates go up significantly.
Perhaps a more important question is how can interest rates go up with the Fed buying every financial asset? There has to be some kind of market schism between the official rate of interest and the black market rate, perhaps caused by distrust of dollar-denominated assets.
The FED and Wall Street need to sucker in more pension, 401K, IRA, and retail investor money before they make the "surprise announcment" of the end of QE and the raising of rates.
The bankers and CONgress will know ahead of time of course.
Martial Law will be declared in response to a false-flag first, as fedgov has no other method of surviving an end to QE (think hollow-points, billions of dem).
I wonder if Mr. Druckenmiller looks at rig counts or if he just assumes the supply trend will continue forever and always.
He "pow~wow", & smokem peace pipe with fellow tribe chiefs... Trade wampum for fire water...
Inappropriate = Criminal
"Avoid commodity currencies in general"? I think the guy means, "short commodity currencies in general".
Fixed it for ya Stan...
if you are shorting commodity currencies are you going long fiat currencies?
vexing issue.........
Don't slip on any Banana Republic peels... :-)
[j/k] kito... ur alright by me... f_s...
Yes, technically speaking Fonz. You have to short commodity currencies against something, and shorting them against paper gold or silver is self defeating. Commodity currencies are the first to break down when things slow down. (risk comes off)
[IMG]http://imageshack.us/a/img835/2918/ajh17.png[/IMG]
Inflated equities are the new fiat currency of choice.... It is the "choice" chosen for you, by the Bernank.
How can you short anything with competitive debasement occurring? I took that to mean avoid Australia, Canada, etc.
Bernanke is performing the fiat money version of "Flight of Icarus" and will have similar results.
Ok, so I'm seeeing this new paradigm where everyone and their mother thinks the stock market is going to "melt up" indefintely because of the FED's QE. Classic case of group-think. I have to take the other side of that trade. Is this time really different? I guess time will tell.
I like how this guy gives all these warnings but the warnings will only come true when Bernank allows them to.
If I remember correctly in early 2000 he saw a melt-up for the Nasdaq, until.... it dropped 75% in 2 years. He stated he didn't see it coming. Why should it see it this time?
The only thing missing for a spectacular crash is a catalyst. Until then, the stock "efficient" market can do whatever it likes.
Clearly, the more we see pros going all-in (today we might count 2 more), the closer we are to the tipping point.
Stocks all up, PMs smashed down.
A great mother of a flip is coming.
Jeff Skilling for next Fed Chairman! He did what you all are trying to do BETTER, and did it first.
nah, it's Corzine all the way....remember he's the first guy Biden and Obama call.
silly ... Corzine's gonna run the Government Accountability Office. His first job will be to send Eric Holder to find the real gun-runners!
http://flic.kr/p/edpUf8
Hmmm Jeff Christian with an assist from Paul Krugman to advise on long-term stability of economies and Tim Geithner to consult on keeping a lid on fraud and to keep spending down? Ya?
.
No bear market until the Fed changes monetary policy
No bear market, evar!
Hey Krugman, I'll see your trillion dollar coin and raise you this:
The FED could just roll out a new, second-tier currency for serf use only, and use that to buy up all the dollar-denominated garbage they've accumulated, thereby "saving" the dollar -- for those who will still be allowed to use it. Currency Licenses, bitchez!
That would also eliminate the need for ugly messes like depositor haircuts. Print all the dollars you want, but then just offload it onto the sheeple currency whenever necessary, and the oligarchs' cash stays intact. So does the "market". No longer will their currency need to be commingled with sheep currency, except briefly at the point-of-sale (readily convertible back to dollars at a later time, if you have the right licenses).
That oughtta effectively ruin everything further.
[Gold for kings, silver for gentlemen, paper for slaves, and these nifty new swipecards for...whatever's lower than slaves.]
Let’s not forget unique large diamonds, rubies, sapphires, jade and other things that are money to the elites: they care about these things and so they have value. For the rest of us that intend to see use for our tangible assets for actual machinery or medicine in our lifetimes, however, such things are not quite so important and damn the price the elites declare them to be. A bet that hard that your savings must be ready for your great-great-grandchildren is almost a vote against your own DNA thinking they must be that useless so many generations off that you can’t possibly let them earn something on their own. I need no such assurances.
lower than slaves: how about those who dare to dream to be privileged slaves with fancy iCrap gadgets rather than starving Indian or African children, some slaves some not, who will rarely have more than a meal a day & certainly nowhere safe to sleep.
Even a slave proven useful to his/her master can expect a safe place to sleep most of the time until one's utility is expired, given the history of slavery of all sorts across human civilization start to date and in all regions of the world...
the weasels over at BI are really bent out of shape about this opinion of his
Low Rates Aren't Fun - Business Insider Has Pure Contempt For Penny-Wise Senior Citizens
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/05/low-rates-arent-fun-business-insider.html
As a reminder:
"[Druckemiller's] most glaring error, according to acquaintances, was committed a decade ago, when he failed to reverse course and cut long positions on new economy stocks swiftly enough just before the dotcom crash."
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/940b1b96-aaf0-11df-9e6b-00144feabdc0.html
So why didn't the markets "melt up" in 2007 and 2008 when the Fed was cutting like crazy? Don't fight the Fed didn't work back then. There will come a time when the Fed loses control again, long before rates begin to rise.
Because the powers that control Obumbler and Bernack wanted the market to crash to ruin Republicans so DemoRATS would be elected...... SOROS is evil!!!!!
"BERNANKE RUNNING INNAPROPRIATE MONETARY POLICY".
Either that, or he knows something Stan, you, me and ZH does not. Given that these guys can afford the Best & Brightest, can & do play Currency War games, etc, etc, perhaps -- just perhaps -- the Elite at the Fed, GS and JPM know a tad more than the Doom, Gloom & Boom crowd? We don't know (a) What their global objectives are, (b) what info and assumptions they are dealing with.
"In the absence of trust, or timely and accurate information, one must proceed on Principle. Not ideology or wishful thinking or speculation."
"Asset allocation based on hope is not a viable strategy. PM is but one such 'hope', one assumption. But is not and must not be the only one."
I therefore hedge accordingly: Global allocation of PM, land and paper assets. They'd have to burn the whole world (or most of it) to burn all my assets. Your move.
Check back in 2020 when we are all millionaires and a loaf of bread costs $2000. You'll be thanking Big Ben then.
Hopefully by that time I’ll have container gardens, irrigation & some good rows of beans, broccoli & corn bought with gold bars far in advance… hopefully.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100718505
The bond markets will crash once global central banks stop buying debt, triggering a financial crisis much worse than the one seen in 2008, strategist David Roche told CNBC.
Roche, who has previously warned that "safe haven" government bonds are the most dangerous place for investors to be in, said Wednesday: "Yes it [a financial crisis] will happen and yes, it will be bigger [than the credit crisis]. Once you re-price the burden of the world's debt... the ugly truth will be revealed."
According to Roche, president of Independent Strategy, once the expansive quantitative easing programs initiated by Western central banks come to an end, sovereign bond yields, including U.S. Treasurys, German Bunds and U.K. Gilts, will spike significantly prompting a crash.
Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasurys have fallen more than 200 basis points over the past five years and are now around 1.8 percent. Meanwhile, U.K. 10-year Gilts and German 10-year Bunds were also trading near record lows on Wednesday at 1.8 percent and 1.29 percent, respectively.
"As long as the central bankers print money, the only way to have to distribute it is [for governments] to buy 70 percent of new bond issuance in these safe haven bond markets. As long as they go on doing that, the yields won't go up, and the day they stop, the yields will go up by so much we will have a financial crisis on our hands," he said.
Roche said the impact of a crash in the "safe haven" bond markets will be catastrophic for financial markets worldwide.
"You are looking at a massive capital loss on a mark-to-market basis for a lot of financial institutions in the world and for people who have put their savings into those bonds, which will hit demand and hit the real economy, because if wealth goes down people's optimism about the world economy will fade," he added.
In recent years, major western economies have embarked on expansive bond buying programs in attempt to prop up flagging growth following the credit crisis. But speculation over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will end its expansive bond buying program, has risen this year. In the Fed's latest minutes, it emerged that several committee members were concerned over the risks of continuing its asset purchases for too long.
The end of QE has prompted concerns over how markets will cope unsupported.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100720823
The stock market, which hit new all-time highs on Wednesday, could experience a crash within two years, bearish economist Nouriel Roubini said on CNBC.
"It could go on for another year or two," he said, speaking from the SALT Conference in Las Vegas.
I see frothiness going to end up in nasty boom and bubble in asset prices, followed by crash and a bust, not this year, not next year, two years from now."
On "Fast Money," Roubini cited a couple of factors: "Growth is slow. Earnings growth is also slowing down. Top line and bottom line are not as good as they used to be, but margins are high. They could correct somehow over time.
"But you have the gravitational forces of a slow economy leading eventually to correction, but then the levitational forces of QEs, zero policy rates, more money coming in the market, not just from the U.S. but other economies, is going to levitate asset prices."
Roubini said that those conditions could lead to "a generalized credit and equity and asset bubble next year or two, followed by a crash."
But, he added, "as long as the economy grows between 1½ to 2 percent and you have easy money, this market can go higher."
Clearly I respect this guy, but the "melt up" can end long before the bearded one is looking to put rates up. There is no decent growth anywhere, so why buy stocks at the long run multiple average when growth is well below the average? "because there is nothing else to buy" arguement is foolish - you don't pay the wrong price because you lack immediate alternatives.
'you' don't pay the wrong price - but 'one' might. or may. or 'many' may. and it looks like a lot of them are. i wish i could too,
but my 30 day holding period makes me think about all the other roller coasters when 'one' would want to get out.
Exactly right. Given the wider-perspective view that cash is just a holding of an asset or near-asset like anything else the only reason to jump out of cash is if something offers more safety or SUITABLY more reward. Stocks? I don’t think so, not in comparison to cash. Gold: yes. SPY, AAPL, GOOG, YHOO: no.
apple has not engaged in financial engineering recommended by hedge fund managers, einhorn recommended and apple declined so his stupid joke doesn't make any fucking sense
All these successful mainstream guys are right enough, within their frame of reference. However, I believe they all share in presumptions that the established systems are not as deliberately evil as they actually are. To gain proper perspective, I believe, one must be willing to entertain the ideas that events like those on 9/11/2001, and the financial crises in 2008, etc., were all DELIBERATE INSIDE JOBS. The American economy is being deliberately destroyed, in order to finish destroying its democratic republic. The politicians have almost universally become puppets of the transnational banksters, who have interests which are NOT the same as more than 99.9% of the rest of the American people.
BERNANKE RUNNING INAPPROPRIATE MONETARY POLICY ??? Only INAPPROPRIATE IF you believe that Bernanke is not taking orders from the transnational banksters, which are designed to destroy the American economy. I can not believe that Bernanke could be so consistently and completely wrong merely due to incompetence. However, I believe that the people telling him what to do are evil enough to implement their plans, euphemistically referred to as "demand destruction."
America is already too far gone ... It was already effectively destroyed when the Federal Reserve Board was first enacted. What has been happening since then has been the acceleration of that deliberate destruction at an exponential rate. Bernanke merely happens to be the Chairman of the Fed at a time nearer the end, when it becomes practically impossible to imagine how the overall debts of the American people can keep on doubling many more times ...
However, since the basic design of the established money-as-debt system requires constantly more debts, or else that system collapses, the Fed has no choice but to keep on spiralling through, staving off the collapse of the money supply, since everyone else is already too far in debt to be able to borrow much more. Therefore, hardly anyone else is sanely able to continue to borrow, in order to continue to create more "money" out of nothing. The Fed has to pick up the slack, or else the failures of others to borrow from other private banks drives them to become insufficient to keep the overall money supply growing.
Our utterly insane financial system is simply force backed fraud, due to the methods of organized crime being successful applied by the banksters to take over control of the government, in order to legalize lies, and legalize the violence needed to make those lies fly. That system creates money out of nothing when money is "borrowed," as long as there is somebody willing to promise to repay. In that system, that money made out of nothing can also take various routes to return to non-existence.
The Fed is at the center of the spiderweb of frauds. It has to try to balance the rates of the creation and destruction of money. However, the fundamental systems are still FRAUDS, based on making "money" out of nothing, as debts. THERE IS NO POSSIBLE SOLUTION TO THAT SITUATION OTHER THAN SOME MONETARY REVOLUTION. It is absolutely impossible for any kind of "monetary reforms" to ever be workable, because those can never stop the fundamental fraud from continuing, which is the real source of the problem.
After the banksters succeeded in corrupting Congress, and the other two branches of government (as well as the fourth, the mass media), the basic runaway system of financial fraud was put in place, and that triumphant fraud automatically ran away, faster and faster, towards the destruction of the American economy. It is impossible for the Federal Reserve Board to do anything else but continue to destroy the American economy. I can not believe that those doing that can not understand that. I believe that they have a bigger agenda, which includes deliberately destroying America as a democratic republic, which agenda is already apparently already more than 99% accomplished.
Anyway, within that context, I find that these successful mainstream people, as brilliant as they may well have been operating within the established systems, were all otherwise mainstream morons, who do not get it. Furthermore, I do not think that they could "get it" unless they were to face the fact that money is backed by murder, and therefore, when they made so much money, they were participating in the murders related to making that a reality.
We are reaching the points where enough quantitative change is going to cause qualitative changes of state. The entire system of Neolithic civilization is reaching its limits. We are running out of ways we could continue to operate our economy with deliberate ignorance towards our ecology. The reality that our money was always backed by murder is reaching a breakthrough point, at the same time as the systems of money-as-debt are reaching debt saturation, where the debt slavery numbers have become debt insanity numbers.
The Fed can only keep the established systems going. It could not change them, without abolishing itself. However, ending the Fed can only be understood as the result of some kind of monetary revolution, which is outside the frame of reference of any kind of monetary reform measures. The bigger context has always been the application of the methods of organized crime, by the banksters, to take control over the government, to legalize the banksters' frauds. There are no genuine solutions which do not face those deeper social facts. The real systems exist today because they were backed by murder. The real systems actually depended upon the methods of organized crime to prevail. There is nothing outside of that understanding which could provide sufficient solutions to those problems.
The debt controls depend upon the death controls. Nothing less than radical changes in the murder systems are enough to change the money systems, because the established money system was actually made and maintained on the foundations of organized crime. Of course, the banksters already know all that, and they have their covert plans regarding how to ride through the destruction of the American economy, and end up on the other side even more in control of the real world than they already are now.
Whether or not they will prevail remains to be seen. I believe that they have lost control over the systems that they originally made and maintained. I no longer believe there are any human beings who understand what is happening, and that nobody is coherently able to direct what is going to happen in the future. Everything is based on the old-fashioned social pyramid systems being amplified by technologies which are trillions of times more powerful than anything before in human history ...
At present, there is no way to know what happens to a global system of electronic fiat money frauds, backed up by atomic bombs. By and large, the basic ways to even begin to understand that situation barely exist inside of the mainstream world, which takes its own bullshit so totally for granted.
"Hedge fund titans" are like an obsolete generation of gods. Those titans may be replaced by some new generation of olympians, EXCEPT we are talking about something which has not yet happened ... We do not know what kind of new ruling classes might emerge in the future. We do not know what kind of people will be ruled by those ruling classes. All of those things are now in extraordinary flux, since the science and technologies are still advancing at an exponential rate, and there are no good reasons to not believe that could not continue for a quite a while longer.
What always existed was a combined money/murder system, whereby organized crime actually ran the government. The Federal Reserve Board being created was a major milestone in that process. What comes next is anyone's guess. However, it is plainly obvious that there is nothing within the established systems which could provide sufficient "monetary reforms" to work ... while what is on the other side, of real monetary revolution, is, as yet, too mad to be able to predict ...
+1. Well said. The system is much more sinister than people realize, and I can not believe that Bernanke could be so consistently and completely wrong merely due to incompetence., is worthy consideration, because, neither can I.
Obunga is very near to total psychotic collapse...
Fried monkey brains ! He should be modeling back to school clothes in the Sears catalogue .... not running the country !