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The Hilsenrath "Tapering" Article Is Out

Tyler Durden's picture


Yesterday, the rumor turned out to be a joke. Today, there was no rumor, but as we warned four hours ago, it was only a matter of time. Less than four hours later, the time has come, and Jon Hilsenrath's "Fed Maps Exit from Stimulus", conveniently appearing after the close, has just been released.

From Hilsy, and one of his final attempts to remain relevant, pointing out what everyone already knew:

Federal Reserve officials have mapped out a strategy for winding down an unprecedented $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program meant to spur the economy—an effort to preserve flexibility and manage highly unpredictable market expectations.

Don't expect an imminent announcement.

Officials say they plan to reduce the amount of bonds they buy in careful and potentially halting steps, varying their purchases as their confidence about the job market and inflation evolves. The timing on when to start is still being debated.

The whisper sellside consensus is that it will be the September FOMC meeting, just after the Jackson Hole meeting at which Bernanke will be absent, that the first details of the flow "slowdown" will be revealed. But there is certainly no consensus.

The Fed's strategy for how and when to wind down the program is of intense interest in financial markets. While the strategy being debated leaves the Fed plenty of flexibility, it might not be the clear and steady path markets expect based on past experience.


Officials are focusing on clarifying the strategy so markets don't overreact about their next moves. For example, officials want to avoid creating expectations that their retreat will be a steady, uniform process like their approach from 2003 to 2006, when they raised short-term interest rates in a series of quarter-percentage-point increments over 17 straight policy meetings.

That the market will obviously "overreact" is a given: for reasons why, read this. As for the rest of the WSJ piece, it is fluff.

Regarding bets when the unwind begins, a look at the change in the VIX forward curves gives us some idea:


If correct, put the date September 17-18 in your calendars.

* * *

For those who missed it earlier, here again is the preview of the market's "Taper" Tantrum:


From Scotiabank, on why a "tapering" may be imminent, if only for purely optical and "transitory" reasons:

The bullets below list reasons why the Fed would want to “leak” hints of a tapering now.

  • On Monday morning of this week, the RBNZ (New Zealand) and BoK (Korea) intervened in the currency market to try to dull the strength of their currencies. Soon afterward, Sweden and Chile announced they might have to intervene as well. Poland cuts rates to weaken the Zloty.
    • These actions and comments show that the external ramifications of QE will no longer be tolerated passively. These moves represent a tacit protest against QE. It could be argued that if QE policies do not subside soon, other governments are now willing to retaliate with counter-measures (currency wars, “a race to the bottom”, protectionism).
  • When FOMC members discuss the “costs” of their policies, they are partially referring to the potential for asset bubbles and distortions to price discovery. The Fed has had its foot on the accelerator so long that easing off should provide information from how markets react.
  • In the past 10 days, the yield on the Barclays High Yield Index has collapsed from 5.37% to 4.97%. A 4-handle on Junk bonds is truly remarkable. High Grade spreads have also been tightening materially.
  • Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums have been declining rapidly and plummeted the past two weeks to all-time low levels. Certainly, marginal buyers have continued to be chased into the market from fears of missing the up-trade and promises of the Fed “put” protecting the downside, but the collapse in CDS premiums represent bear capitulation and the futile results of hedging risk.
  • Equities are higher by almost 15% YTD (46% on an annualized basis). The FOMC wants asset inflation (the Pigou Effect), but trading has become decidedly one way. The S&P 500 has rallied 13 out of the last 14 days. There was increasing talk of equities “melting up” and finally stated publicly by Stan Druckenmiller.
  • NYSE Margin Debt has matched the highest levels in history (July 2007).
  • Tobin’s Q ratio is the best predictor of market corrections (of 20%+). James Tobin won a noble prize for it. He hypothesized that the combined market value of all the companies on the stock market should be about equal to their replacement costs. The Q ratio is calculated as the market value of a company divided by the replacement value of the firm's assets. The ratio is approaching levels similar to 1907, 1929, 1937, 1969, 2001/2, and 2008.
  • The Fed has been accused of ‘enabling’ fiscal stalemate. There is an article in the WSJ today about how improving Federal finances lessens the urgency for Republicans and Democrats to negotiate. Stable and rising asset market prices have the same effect. As negotiations begin, providing a warning shot that the Fed cannot do the heavy lifting forever, may be a wise move.
    • After all, the debt ceiling limit gets hit next week on May 18th, at which point the Treasury will have to invoke extraordinary measures to prevent default (something they can do until September).
  • Congressional and market criticism has been increasing.
  • The Treasury will probably be cutting issuance in Q3 due to an improving position. This effectively means if the Fed continues to buy at the current pace, it would be buying an even greater percentage of visible supply.
  • It is possible that Bernanke made a suggestion about ‘tapering’ in his Chicago speech today, when he used the words “reaching for yield”. The dollar and the bond market are just beginning to notice and react. The other markets will likely soon follow.

Fed tapering would catch the market off-sides. At some level, FOMC members must realize they have created a moral hazard dilemma and conditions of over-promising what they can deliver. Tapering would symbolically put a dent in market sentiment and the implicit ‘put’. The many investors that have been drifting into riskier assets in a scramble for yield would begin to prudently re-focus on the downside risks to these assets.

It is possible a steep decline in financial assets would ensue with the lowest part of the capital structure being hurt the most. The Fed has chased investors all in the same direction; into risk-seeking securities. Few care about “right-tail” events, but should investors decide to pare risk in reaction to a hint of ‘tapering’, the overshoot to the downside may surprise many. The combination of too many sellers, too few buyers, and dreadful (and declining) liquidity means a down-side overshoot is highly likely. It would provide the Fed with their answer as to whether they have been creating market bubbles.


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Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:18 | 3550092 ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

And here I thought Jon only wrote bullish articles. Looks like the Rath of Hilsen cuts both ways.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:34 | 3550144 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



Speaking of assholes and tapered, do you know why shit is tapered?  

So your asshole doesn't go, "SLAM!"

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:35 | 3550152 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

saw a video about that, once apon a time.  'course, don't look at that stuff anymore. - Ned

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:41 | 3550167 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



Here is the video discussing the asshole and tapering.

When you clip it off tightening too fast and too hard there is always a big splash, shit flying everywhere.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:52 | 3550177 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture


I maintain that there is a serious gold and silver market event about to happen and this is so much talk which will fail to contain the metals.

The Shanghai Gold Exchnange has been delivering 200 tons /month for 20 months and the physical pull from LBMA is relentless.

Scroll down to see the enormous gold draw on Shanghai over the past two years:

LBMA / Comex collapsing:


One thing is certain today, the bullion banks are on the long side of all of this selling.  We are seeing cracks appearing in the fractional reserve LBMA and COMEX price setting mechanisms.  It’s really thanks to the most recent paper market discount that we are evidencing this accelerated migration of bullion from the West to the East...

 ...And even though this activity (intervention) bought a little more time for these guys, the immediate and unanticipated but accelerated bullion demand (all over the world), actually ended up digging an even deeper hole for the Fed, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and the agent bullion banks.  They have actually shot themselves in the foot.

By simply tracking the movements in the international wholesale market, it’s clear that a major supply problem is brewing.  Where has this bullion gone?  It is clearly Fed and Bank for International Settlements borrowed bullion.  What they are doing is seeking to avert a fractional reserve delivery default.  These are in the price setting centers of London and the COMEX.  And it is further extenuated by arbitragers who are moving bullion out of the COMEX and reselling it at higher, real global prices. 

So you have a perfect storm here.  This (Western gold) bullion is not coming back.  It’s being re-melted, cast into kilobars, and it’s ending up directly in Eastern hemisphere central bank and sovereign vaults.  And all of this time the bullion banks are calling for lower prices, and the mainstream media is touting a bear market.  The bullion banks are fully aware of this threat, and they are exiting these mismatched short positions.


LBMA had 40 tons gold purchased today:

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:54 | 3550229 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Things that make you go Hmmmm.

With less than 10 minutes to go in the post-market session on a Friday evening, SPY is experiencing a quiet but significant sell-off.


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:26 | 3550303 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:19 | 3550427 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Why Doesn't The Sacks Man Discuss How Much GOLD Ben Shalom Is Printing Each Week ???

Is It 10 Tonnes, 20  Tonnes, 50  Tonnes ???

After All, The Infinite Abbundance Of Paper GOLD Is The Crazy-Glue That Holds The US Fin System Together???

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:42 | 3550459 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Hilsenrath something else for you and your miserable rag to report on

May 9, 2013

Dad who died during arrest 'begged for his life'; witness videos seized

Blood stains are still visible on the sidewalk at the corner of Flower Street and Palm Drive, where a Bakersfield man struggled with as many as nine officers and later died this week.

David Sal Silva, 33 and the father of four young children, died early Wednesday morning after deputies say he fought with them and CHP officers who'd responded to a report of a possibly intoxicated man outside Kern Medical Center.

The Kern County, California Sheriff's Office says Silva resisted, a canine was deployed, more law enforcement arrived, batons were used and the man later had trouble breathing. He was taken to KMC, where he died. An autopsy was slated for Thursday, but no results have been released.

Some witnesses apparently took cellphone video of the incident but deputies moved quickly to seize the phones. The Sheriff's Office, after releasing a statement Wednesday and naming its officers Thursday, declined all further comment.

People who say they witnessed the incident as well as Silva's family members described a scene in which deputies essentially were beating a helpless man to death. They were indignant that cellphone video had been taken away by deputies.

At about midnight, Ruben Ceballos, 19,was awakened by screams and loud banging noises outside his home. He said he ran to the left side of his house to find out who was causing the ruckus.

"When I got outside I saw two officers beating a man with batons and they were hitting his head so every time they would swing, I could hear the blows to his head," Ceballos said.

Silva was on the ground screaming for help, but officers continued to beat him, Ceballos said.

After several minutes, Ceballos said, Silva stopped screaming and was no longer responsive.

"When I arrived to the home of one of the witnesses that had video footage, she was with her family sitting down on the couch, surrounded by three deputies," Tello said.

Tello said the witness was not allowed to go anywhere with her phone and was being quarantined inside her home.

When Tello tried to talk to the witness in private and with the phone, one of the deputies stopped him and told him he couldn't take the phone anywhere because it was evidence to the investigation, the attorney said.

"This was not a crime scene where the evidence was going to be destroyed," Tello said. "These were concerned citizens who were basically doing a civic duty of preserving the evidence, not destroying it as they (sheriff deputies) tried to make it seem."

A search warrant wasn't presented to either of the witnesses until after Tello arrived, he said, adding that one phone was seized before the warrant was produced.

Tello said the phone of the first witness was taken after the deputies told him he was either going to give up the phone the easy way or the hard way.

"They basically told him they were either going to keep him at this house all night until they could find a judge to sign a search warrant or he could just turn over his phone," he said.

The witness gave up his phone two hours before he had to get to work and was told by deputies that he could collect his phone the next day after they had extracted the evidence they needed, Tello said.

However, the witness never got his phone back, Tello said, and was told it could take years before he does because the investigation could take a long time.


Silva left behind four children, ranging from ages 2 to 10 years old. As of Thursday afternoon, his mother said, they hadn't figured out how to tell the children their father is dead. Merri Silva remembers her son as a happy person who loved his kids.




Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:58 | 3550549 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Arresting officers names?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:07 | 3550580 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

local officers named but  CHP hasn't released the names of its officers at the scene.


but in other news

California’s highest-paid state troopers make far more than those in other states, with overtime and lump-sum payouts that inflate earnings, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They also enjoy a retirement benefit that allows them to leave after 30 years with annual pensions totaling 90 percent of their salaries, a standard that became the model for police departments throughout the state.

44 California patrol officers earned more than $200,000 while more than 5,000 California troopers made at least $100,000 in 2011

Boosting of pay and benefits was intended to attract candidates to the California Highway Patrol.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:41 | 3550644 brettd
brettd's picture


10 million unemployed and they're RAISING pay?  

Stupid government.  Strike that.

Currupt government.


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:36 | 3550735 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

Pays to be a pig. $100,000 to eat donuts and to beat the shit out of black people?!

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 09:35 | 3551198 spine001
spine001's picture

When I was still a sheeple I worked in a F500 company and partici0ated in merger and acquisitions. What they just did wi5h this announcement reminds me of the leaked information about a merger. Which was nothing 3lse than a trial balloon to see how the market would react to the news. If it went in a different way than we believed we were in time to stop and deny the "rumor".It was called "trial balloon".

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 10:09 | 3551238 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

When I was a kid I watched that TV show CHiPs about the California Highway Patrol. They didn't focus on those aspects of the job in that show. Although the sergeant who was their boss was a bit donut-fat IIRC.

I remember when I came to California for the first (and only) time in 1991 that I was disappointed that the girls there didn't look at all like the girls in those old shows.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:59 | 3550670 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

While reviewing tax returns at a local CPA outfit, I would routinely see HwyControl Officers that exceeded $250k...ten years ago.  Same for school administrators.  And, for all the bitching they do, I would see public school teachers (after ten years or so) in the $150k range.

So next time a Calif 'public servant' bitches about their pay, remember this.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:51 | 3550751 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Parol officers in the midwest easily make $150,000/year or more.  

Public employees with not a lot of education making more than Medical doctors that have to bust their butt and work long hours.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:52 | 3550891 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

haha...and how are Doctors NOT public employees when medicare/medicaid funds half of all medical expenses, tax write off for services rendered, residency is paid by tax dollars, hospitals are non-taxed entities?


also how much money did some dumbass celebrity make and how much education did they have?


grandaughter of Communist Mao in China is worth half a billion. get with the program. Government = monopoly power = money

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 00:07 | 3555191 Dealyer Turdin
Dealyer Turdin's picture

=monopoly money.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 13:27 | 3551604 General Decline
General Decline's picture

"California patrol officers earned more than $200,000 "

When the time comes for them to assist in marshal law/gun confiscations, they will choose their paycheck over the constitution. Fucking prostitutess

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:04 | 3550562 RebelDevil
RebelDevil's picture

If those officers aren't convicted of murder, then that would confirm that we truly live in full-blown Orwellian times with the SS/Gestapo getting away with what I call barbarian acts.

This is the real reason to own guns, to kill off pricks who think they're the SS.
Truly sicking and distrubing.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 14:51 | 3551818 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

come to my state and try to 'take' my phone without warrant or being would be in the news alright, with an 'officer' down....and the public would cry and moan about the law enforcement getting killed.....with zero justification.....this system sucks.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:33 | 3550628 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture




Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:49 | 3550658 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

And people disagree with me that the US government, from the local on up, is at war against the American people NOW. The US government, at all levels, is currently prosecuting a civil war against the American people and is in the process of escalating it as well (NDAA, etc.)

The gun and badge thugs are just the first soldiers being used against us.

Rejection; Revolution; Retribution; Restoration



Sat, 05/11/2013 - 09:45 | 3551208 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Yes indeed. I don't know how many times I've heard people say, "You know my brother/cousin/whatever is in the military. Those guys are true blue. If the shit ever started, they would refuse orders to hurt Americans." To which I reply, "idiot, what are these 'heroes' waiting for?" The war is on, right now, right here. In your neighborhood. Cops killing us. The govenment killing children and blaming the Bill of Rights. The Government bombing people and imposing martial law. The government bombing New York and starting a never ending world war.






It's a full spectrum attack. They are using terrorist attacks against us, they are taxing the shit out of us, they are regulating the shit out of us. They use their media against us. They want an illegal immigrant invasion to divide us. Then they want to use that as a pretext to brand us all like cattle - a national ID card. No thanks. I'm not a fucking farm animal. So-called American 'leaders' are openly hostile to the Bill of Rights? When do our 'heroes' start acting like 'heroes?' That's right. Never. They are cowards. Any soldiers who obey illegal orders is a fucking coward.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:47 | 3550883 freedogger
freedogger's picture

I had a cop threaten to take my phone last winter as evidence if I didn't delete pictures I took of his squad car's window covered in snow.

Anyhow, made me re-think my setup. Now all photos and video get saved to my dropbox folder. This backs it up to the cloud. I will hapilly wait for a search warrant or hand the phone over in the future knowing they won't be able to bury it.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:54 | 3550894 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

only way to beat a cop is to join the military.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 10:39 | 3551263 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

If they force you to delete pictures or videos take the memory card out of your phone or camera immediately afterwards, Then use a recovery program such as PC Inspector File Recovery (freeware) to undelete them.

When you delete a file it isn't actually deleted, it is marked as free space and removed from the directory index. As long as you don't overwrite it with new data there is always a good chance you can recover it.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 14:20 | 3551721 freedogger
freedogger's picture

Good tip. If it really counts though, they will just take the phone. With the save to cloud working, I have a better chance of covering my ass.

With the state moving to increasing surveillence, at least we can watch them too.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 11:44 | 3551393 papaclop
papaclop's picture

That's why they call them pigs. They are not there to protect you. They are there to get a paycheck, try to get laid, and protect each other. Welcome to the USSA. Police state Amerika.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 08:58 | 3551169 absente reo
absente reo's picture

Very sad, and very disturbing.  Bastards.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:24 | 3550296 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

@pinto currency
Thanks. Great post.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 01:17 | 3550831 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture


You bet Freewolf.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:49 | 3550656 outamyeffinway
outamyeffinway's picture

Oh that gold will come back. In about a hundred to a hundred-fifty years. That's how this all works.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 16:15 | 3551988 Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

40 tonnes, whoop-de-doo!

 Between October 1967-March 1968 private offtake of CB gold was in excess of 2500 tonnes, with one day alone- 14 March, 1968 showing 400 tonnes of net buying of various CB hordes.

Sun, 05/12/2013 - 15:58 | 3552472 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture


You've probably got 50 to 100 tonnes per day being pulled of the various physical exchanges.

Not record setting, but 50 tonnes is 1.6 million oz.

Annual gold mine supply is 75 million oz.

Let's see how long this can continue.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:45 | 3550174 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:46 | 3550197 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

NO one needs to panic. Hilsy also said that Benny was going to print an extra 80 tons of gold bullion each month to keep the LBMA and COMEX from defaulting. If he is successful then a hooker and blow party in September at the Fed.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:06 | 3550255 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Living this would be so much more fun if drones had giant speakers looping a laugh track from Mork & Mindy as they flew overhead. 



Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:03 | 3550566 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Nanunonosecond trading!

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:56 | 3550750 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture
Nanu Nanu. Greetings.  I'm here to front run your trades.
Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:53 | 3550183 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

In Seventeenth Century Edinburgh, it was customary for city dwellers to warn the passers-by below before a chamber pot was emptied out an upper-story window, by exclaiming, "Gardyloo !"

Translation: Ben Bernanke, to the markets, via the Fed's Official Scribe at the WSJ:

"Gardyloo !"

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:57 | 3550236 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

The bearded chap below the window bears a striking resemblance to a certain Twenty First century central bank chairman.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:04 | 3550248 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Those too stupid to move out of the way were the reason the term 'shithead' came into existence.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:12 | 3550388 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Also, twas customary for the gentleman to walk nearest the street and m'lady to walk nearest the edifice as to protect m'lady from any smelly plummeting detritus. If I was that guy, I'd be like, "Damn, bitch, why canst we merely perambulate single file and shit down yond hazardous thoroughfare-- lest I be smacked upon mine crown with a fair weight of stinky poopies?" 


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:07 | 3550260 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Holy gang aft agley!!!

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:51 | 3550525 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

+ 100 Fredo, classic !

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:19 | 3550864 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Not just in Edinburgh (Scotland's gayest city) did "the shit fly", but elsewhere too in the UK.

The correct expression was "Gardez l'eau", which is French for "Watch the water!", and was a courtesy shout made just before or as someone emptied the Night Pot out the window. This became 'gardez loo', and now they go to the "Loo".

How England ruled the world, I'll never know. Of course they'll say that about us one day.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:11 | 3550207 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh yeah, this Exit Strategy Shit is gonna go over Real Fucking Good with the What?House.  Everything else is falling apart and now the Bernak is gonna take the punch bowl away?
The politicians are gonna do something to spur serious responsible fiscal policy, decrease regulatory burdens and spur the economy through a combination of expenditures and tax cuts?
Confidence and the Economic Spirit is Gonna Skyrocket?



small weeping sounds

I am pissed, riled and rattled with this shit.
And it ain't goin' away.

OK buttfuckers, you've had your trial balloon......


And none of this stuff makes any sense.
I Quit 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:49 | 3550355 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

At some point they will announce they are tapering it. I will be all over the news. They will march out the pundits to proclaim that the announcement is proof that the fed had a strategy all along. Then some big fuckin thing will happen two weeks before they were supposed to start tapering and they will say "well....since the big fuckin thing happened...we are going to go just a bit's too bad...because we were just about to stop".

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:33 | 3550475 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, when all's said and done I think there will be a lot more said than done when it comes to ending QE4EVA.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:02 | 3550674 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Sounds about right.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 01:34 | 3550846 kito
kito's picture

Anybody want to bet a turkey sandwich that he tapers?? Figure Ben is looking to cut the nuts out of commodities and give the Dow a breather......the moment of truth for comex.....will $1000 gold break the comex when the taper is announced????

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 04:37 | 3550960 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Not a tuff turkey sanga! but if its wax on there has to be wax off.

Thou .... Its sort of like defusing the "Mother of all Bombs" with a well worn Swiss Army knife, in the dark, wearing baseball catcher gloves with the worst case of hicups you have every had.

My thoughts go, not with a taper ...... but an ass pucker.

QE4ever...... meet the eye of the needle

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 08:21 | 3551122 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Money is made by always having something going down that can be bought cheap and always having something going up that can be sold dear.

When markets are allowed to work, the little guy can do a decent job of predicting what might do well.

These days, market-driving decisions are heavily influenced, if not made, by governmental or institutional players. 

The little guy can still buy low, which is about the hardest time to invest because it means even the big players are selling and the wait time to profit, or even to find the price bottom, may be years off.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 05:10 | 3550985 purplefrog
purplefrog's picture

You see, tapering allows it to go in easier.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:44 | 3550486 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

Taper QE and the house of cards will fall apart.  There's nothing but bad choices including a Bond Market and Quad-trillion amount of derivatives ready to burst!!

We all know the majority of this QE is for buying T-Bonds, Plunge Protection Team and propping up the banks anyway.  Everyone of these major banks has many, many TRILLIONS in derivatives.  Go ahead, stop QE and let me set my watch for about 10 minutes and lets see which major bank fails first.

I wonder if Ben read this article?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:59 | 3550763 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Hilsenrath is full of it. What, he's invited to the Fed/Wall Street hooker party?

People take Hilsenrath way too seriously 

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 08:04 | 3551099 W T F II
W T F II's picture

I completely disagree. He doesn't breathe without direct authorization...!!

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 00:04 | 3550771 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Go ahead, stop QE and let me set my watch for about 10 minutes and lets see which major bank fails first.

Niiiiice. This got an epic LOL out of me. I think you are a tad optimistic on how long the banks would last though. :-D

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 08:26 | 3551127 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

I the tapering is going to take place then the banks have 4 months to front run the tapering.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 08:50 | 3551156 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

The Fed member banks will be well-positioned to take advantage of any downside before the announcement.

We have a high-risk, international game theory experiment in progress. The U.S. urged the EU to abandon austerity in favor of printing and debasing. With all the majors in a race to drive exports via their cheap currencies, the winner will be the one who can draw international money flows near the bottom when fear sets in.

Germany, with their call to repatriate gold, looks like they are preparing to be the stable alternative, possibly using the mark instead of the euro. Even Russia could become a stable player again.

Apparent moves toward a one-world reordering of power heavily influended by large banks can't continue with strong alternatives that have a stable, international currency.

The large banks have come a long way toward calling all the shots, but not every government can be subjugated economically as easily as in the U.S. with a highly money-based election process.

The Fed seems to be signalling that it will let the dollar strengthen somewhat which will draw in fleeing international money and allow it to cut back on printing.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:34 | 3550151 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Normally I would be totally interested in what Hilsenrumor has to say, but tonight I am polishing an FAL locking shoulder.  I'm sure all his bankster fanbois are doing the same thing.  Or maybe they are just getting a fucking bagel with lox.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:37 | 3550158 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"... bankster fanbois ..."

actually can't spell F.., well then they fail.

no clue, nor when they are on the other end of same.

- Ned

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:46 | 3550187 Political_Savage
Political_Savage's picture

Does anyone else find it odd that we're in an environment where a REPORTER'S STORY has to be posted after close?

He's not even the main event - he's just the fluffer. But it still would have impacted the markets. We just assume he has inside info that makes his story legit.

It's not even coming from the horses mouth.

That's F'd up!

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:56 | 3550374 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

This is just a CB ploy to give the impression to the public that they are considering reversing course because they are fair and balanced.  Its all bullshit, they can never reverse course and at least ZH'ers know it.  The next time interest rates rise, it will not be by choice.  The alternative is Japan style QE forever which we are doing.  This will cause the least pain for now. 

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 08:29 | 3551130 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Agreed ... the article is more about using propaganda to manipulate markets than about anything substantial. They think the markets have gone up too high, too fast. So, they lie (must be serious) about fundamentals and then say it is time to temper.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 13:36 | 3551625 edb5s
edb5s's picture


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:07 | 3550400 Hayabusa
Hayabusa's picture

EVERYBODY'S DOIN IT!  As long as everyone in the world is debasing currency

then everyone else will keep doing it - they have no choice.  BTW, even if

everyone wasn't doing it the FED would do it anyway... all the way to infinity

and beyond.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:26 | 3550456 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Perhaps the "Reinventing Bretton Woods" conference is not going swimmingly for the western developed countries. 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:19 | 3550097 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The next FOMC statement is more likely to say something as pathetic as "we must first increase QE in order to decrease QE." This is the ultimate bluff and QE can never be decreased. Once the market figures out that QE can never end (without the implosion of the world fiat money system), the game is over. This is the end game bluff to delay the end game as long as possible. This is the end, my friend, this is the end.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:34 | 3550130 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

"The timing on when to start is still being debated."

More research is necessary.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:35 | 3550154 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

we are launching an internal committee to discuss an internal investigation.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:37 | 3550159 Parabox
Parabox's picture

Is that the point?  To make people believe now that the Fed will start tapering in September, which will lead to a market correction in September, but until September everyone should be 100% risk-on in the market?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:47 | 3550200 RebelDevil
RebelDevil's picture

The question I'm asking myself now is "Does the FOMC now want a deflationary crash like 2008?"

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:58 | 3550238 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

No, and they didn't want it in 2008 either. What they want is to keep their printing press...that's it. It's a worldwide fiat monetary ponzi and ponzies must expand or they implode. In 2008, the ponzi deflated right to the point of implosion. 5 years of ZIRP + QE means the ponzi is so much bigger now that it could not handle a deflationary episode anywhere near 2008. A few thousand point fall in equities, or a rise in bond yields of less than 100 bps may be enough to crash the system from here. And to keep either of these events from happening, more QE must be pumped in. What they can do is let the ponzi deflate right up to the breaking point, then they have the choice to pump or to lose their printing press.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:00 | 3550859 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Close, but too blunt.  Think of it as a fighting retreat in war.  They will back off QE and let markets correct.  If it becomes a route, or a major bank is in trouble they'll intervene until things calm dow.  Rinse, repeat.

The banks have had 5 years to strengthen their balance sheets and prepare.  Behind closed doors this has been well rehearsed.  The goal is to keep dollar reserve status as long as possible without killing the banks.  That should be easily doable as long as Euope and Japan are in even worse shape (which they are).

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 03:18 | 3550908 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The only thing I disagree with is that the US is in fact in worse shape than both Europe and Japan. Europe still has a move left which is Eurobonds. Japan still has a move left which is stop buying US Treasuries. The US Just took its last move which was bluff that there will be no increase in QE. That's check. Admit the increase and it will be checkmate with the US bringing the whole enchilada down.

Edit: Japan's only move to stop buying US Treasuries would also hasten the decline of the US Bond Market.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 15:32 | 3551917 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Thanks for the reply.  You may have to break that down for me.  I guess I'm not smart enough to understand how Japan gets help with it's sovereign debt problems by no longer buying US treasuries.

Perhaps Kyle Bass doesn't get it either, as his investment thesis is short Japan, not US CDO.

What difference does it make anyway?  When markets are in trouble, investors the world over go into US treasuries.  Cypress set the stage for depositors to take haircuts when banks fail.  Watch those dominoes go down in Spain, Italy and finally France and UK.  Each time trillions will go to the safe havens.  Ergo, the US bats last... AND THEN the system can go down and rise as something else.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:51 | 3550213 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

No, the point is to keep people for dumping Treasuries and FRNs. Must keep that fear in the market that commodities and equities will tank as QE comes off in order to keep people in Treasuries.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:19 | 3550286 Raynja
Raynja's picture


Is that the point?  To make people believe now that the Fed will start tapering in September, which will lead to a market correction in September, but until September everyone should be 100% risk-on in the market?


I'd say it is the opposite, they want to deflate the market thru the summer, nothing too major, but enough to make poeple think they are responsible without slowing the flow.  Come September they say purchases need to continue .


Everything they have done for the past 4 years has been focused on managing expectations, that is the only thing that matters to them.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:03 | 3550861 mkkby
mkkby's picture

You are correct.  Hedge funds will sell the rumor, and the Sept meeting announcement will just be confirmation of a new trend in place.  Might be a good time for some long dated OOM puts.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:48 | 3550202 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Does the bond complex have side doors??

It's full to the top right now, and twice as many cattle want to get in at the same time the others want to get out.

Seem's like a cluster fuck waiting to happen.

I don't think this is going to go very well at all..


Oh, well,  LOL!!

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:34 | 3550476 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Q2 GDP expectations, the first quarter of the sequester, are pointing at 1.5%.  Starting in October another 120B of the Sequester is imposed off of the govt spending growth curve.  The following year, another 120B.  And another and another out to 9 years, and that's all before the deal that will come in September for a debt ceiling increase that will have FURTHER, ADDITIONAL spending constraint.

Just where is the juice going to come from to allow an end to QE.  With full QE we're looking at a pathetic GDP of 1.5%.  How do they stop?

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 08:38 | 3551145 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Sometime in the future this is going to end badly (my guess is that we will not beat the record of 62 years for a fiat currency). One wonders what a little honesty and self-control would have contributed a few years back. What they are doing now has to all be about what they are going to do in the future when it collapses, otherwise collapsing it sooner rather than later generally is the best plan.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:19 | 3550100 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Hilsen-fluffer is doing his thing.  We are one day closer to a September to Remember.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:43 | 3550181 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

God, I hope I don't have to wait till September
for this to implode.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:20 | 3550101 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

A fucking aircraft carrier with crew costs $26.8B.   So we could have 3 more of those a month and maybe start casinos on them which would at least bring in some revenue, or we can have POMO.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:29 | 3550128 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture


We should adapt the British system; build the aircraft carrier but don't fund for the aircraft.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:42 | 3550178 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Do they do blackjack at least?

Right now we have 11 aircraft carriers in the U.S. of Inc.  At the rate Ben is spending our future tax dollars, we could double that every 4 months.  People would rightly say "what the fuck?!  Are you guys nuts?."  But when the money goes to prop up the stock market and provide Bentley bucks for Ben's friends, the public doesn't even notice.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:20 | 3550104 taraxias
taraxias's picture

They can't stop. Everything else is noise.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:26 | 3550124 GernB
GernB's picture

Reality will force them to stop. Everything else is noise.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:32 | 3550143 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Really? And what reality exactly is that? Then one that has everyone on the planet running to the USD at the first whiff of trouble? Or, the reality that has the US10Y solidly under 2.0% yield and heading lower while the trillions of debt piles up?

That's what I thought........

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 00:45 | 3550814 blindman
blindman's picture

@"..Really? And what reality exactly is that? ..."
there a deep and important question requiring
more than mere observation but vision.
avoid the distinction at your own peril.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:10 | 3550863 mkkby
mkkby's picture

You just argued against yourself.  Yes, the USD safe haven status is exactly why they can hit the brakes.  The banks have had 4 years to prepare.  Treasury has refinanced a lot of the debt at ridiculously low rates, so the gov is as ready as they can ever be.

With Europe and Japan in such a mess, US rates won't rise much if any.  QE is no longer needed.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:03 | 3550677 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

Stop QE and watch the DOW go from 15,000 to 10,000 in 3 months.  The Bond Market and employment numbers will quickly follow. 

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:14 | 3550865 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Why will employment be affected at all?  Do you read ZH, or just make idiotic predictions?  QE has done nothing for employment -- it's just created asset bubbles and easy profits for primary dealers.

So what if the DOW goes down?  It just creates the next up/down cycle.  No big fucking deal there.  Maybe you watch too much CNBC and dow is all you care about.  So sad.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:32 | 3550316 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

I like the addict metaphor.
Can't stop. Defies logic.
All else is secondary.
Then you're on the street.

I'm looking forward to
seeing them on the street.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:22 | 3550105 Kiss My Iceland...
Kiss My Icelandic Ass's picture

Well, at least Hilsenrath has stopped pretending to write independent journalism. Just copy/paste the latest email from the Fed propaganda arm. Oh, I guess he has to prefix with "officials say", "according to Fed officials". Hard work !

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:36 | 3550157 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I opened the thread. Lot's of anger/  You might want to rerun it this W/E?  (I mispel all the time)

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:41 | 3550175 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

When the bond bomb goes, it wont matter what Hilsenrath says.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:17 | 3550868 mkkby
mkkby's picture

But that bomb won't go off while Europe and Japan are in such a mess.  They're still wringing their hands over fucking Greece... 5 years and counting.  Think decades until US bonds lose safe haven status.  QE is not needed.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:12 | 3550266 newengland
newengland's picture

Zionist Murdoch uses his media outlets to serve the agenda of the international banksters of old, the new feudalists. He bought his US citizenship, and left his country of birth, Australia.

He is a true globalist, Zionist, the old world order, redux. A prat.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:29 | 3550310 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

OT but Holy Shit

Texas authorities arrested Bryce Reed, a paramedic with West Emergency Medical Services, at 2 a.m. Friday and have since charged him with possession of a pipe bomb. Mr. Reed was among those who responded first to the fertilizer plant explosion and served for a time as incident commander at the site. He was also shown giving a taped eulogy for explosion victim Cyrus Reed at an April 25 memorial in Waco, Texas, attended by President Obama.

Police have neither confirmed nor denied that Reed's arrest is tied to the plant explosion. However, authorities said Friday that the Texas Rangers and the McLennan County Sheriff’s Department have launched a new criminal probe into the incident, with Texas Department of Public Safety chief Stephen McCraw pledging that the state will “leave no stone unturned.”

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:06 | 3550383 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Yeah, that's it.

A pipe bomb caused an explosion that looked as if a MOAB was dropped.

And, since the explosion we have not heard a peep from Texan politicians about moving Texan gold from the NYFed to a secure location inside the borders of the state of Texas.

Paging Richard Jewell, paging Richard Jewell.

Well, someone has to take the blame, and Hillary's not available, since she's currently being hung out to dry to protect Dear Leader over Bengazi.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:18 | 3550436 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"protect Dear Leader over Bengazi."

At some point in time, one would think, some curious, enterprising "journalist" would ask the pertinent question of the Commander in Chief of the United States.

Such as, ahem, ummm, where exactly were you between the the hours of 5:00PM & 1:00AM EST on Sept 11-12 2012?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:16 | 3550597 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Well, luckily it was too late to be playing a round of golf, but who knows, maybe Reggie Love was scoring a hole in one at the time.

It's incredulous that we're supposed to venerate the Golden Boy over how he "got" Osama Bin Laden, but in the case of Bengazi he has no responsibility for the disaster even though he is the POTUS.

Well, if Hillary gets crushed in all of this, it ain't as if she doesn't deserve it.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:02 | 3550676 brettd
brettd's picture


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:25 | 3550720 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Probably...unless they've opened a new bathhouse in DC ;-)

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:38 | 3550638 Dyhana
Dyhana's picture

I was wondering about the gold too. Haven't heard a peep, but I know Texas legislature is in session and there is a bill going through regarding getting the gold back. Might hear something by end of May.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 01:31 | 3550845 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Off Topic, but related to Gold.

New method of consuming gold has been developed.  Human Welding using gold solder.

That should start depleting the stockpiles.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:37 | 3550161 negative rates
negative rates's picture

It used to be hard work, now it's just qualitative easing and corruption, Booker T style.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:51 | 3550185 Kiss My Iceland...
Kiss My Icelandic Ass's picture

I should have said, "Nice work if you can get it." L'esprit d'escalier !

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:22 | 3550114 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

CRASH, "did I do that."

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:23 | 3550115 sunny
sunny's picture

When I see it, then, possibly--maybe--perhaps, I'll believe it.


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:24 | 3550118 razorthin
razorthin's picture

So if true, oh great seer mr. market, and you are forward-looking as you say, then you shall soon be suffering a great fall.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:26 | 3550120 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      Too Little< Too Late. Hilsenrath should be long old Montana 'Missile Silos'. 


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:26 | 3550122 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

I'm confident the SEC is investigating this potential leak of insider information and market manipulation as we speak

They'll get back to us in what? Never?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:27 | 3550125 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Hooray!  Everybody...start your front runnin'!

I say...front run the selling on the Russell.  Small caps will be the first to feel the effects of trading on the actual economy...and not Bernanke "flow".  Everything prioritized from there.  

The Bernanke is dead!

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:31 | 3550135 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Chair Satan /Greenspan taught us well Cdad?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:34 | 3550147 newengland
newengland's picture

On a side note, it is Mother's Day on Sunday. Best wishes to your mother, Yen. She raised a very fine and able young man.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:38 | 3550168 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Just one?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:46 | 3550193 newengland
newengland's picture


Yen is a fine exemplar, imo, despite his sometimes extreme language. Boys will be boys, and mothers love their boys.

The hand that rocks the cradle rules the world.

Perhaps that's why  career politicians dislike mothers.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:42 | 3550176 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      We went to lunch earlier, and got in an argument. She's stubborn.  We made up and laughed. newengland

    Thanks for caring.


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:50 | 3550206 newengland
newengland's picture

You are your mother's son. She wants you to live well, and it is a mother's love that only cares for her son's wellbeing, even if he disagrees with her. There is no love like a mother's love: watching the one you love most walk away from you and be an independent mind body and soul...if you the mother do the right thing, not the easy thing.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:23 | 3550454 viahj
viahj's picture

meh, much respect Cdad but you think small.  i'm front running hunger riots and irradiated concubines.  hell, if we're going to go down like chattle, let's have bellies full of kobi beef and nodes on the thyroid. 

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 00:21 | 3550790 putaipan
putaipan's picture

you had me at "hungry innoclulated concubines".... but, tha's not what you said..... nevermind.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:38 | 3550129 newengland
newengland's picture

Time to be coy for the Fed as it is exposed.

Buzz Bernanke to QE infinity and beyond. All for the central banksters. There is no other way to keep them safe from their losses, and continue their new world order plot, Rothschild Zionism, the Trilateral Commission, the Bilderberg Group marketing arm.

QE to infinity and beyond...until they are safe in the Far East, and repeat their scam there.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:32 | 3550141 W T F II
W T F II's picture

"Mouthpiece" accuracy is best indicator.

Plus, Plosser and Fisher set the template as the "dissention mention".

"Crash now likely".

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:38 | 3550165 espirit
espirit's picture

Scorched Earth Playbook, Chapter 2.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:33 | 3550145 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

If they are going to try it, propaganda is about to go full retard.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:33 | 3550146 infiniti
infiniti's picture

The Fed; far more clueless and destructive than most give them credit for!

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:37 | 3550162 newengland
newengland's picture

The Fed in all its forms are most aware, and venal.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:34 | 3550149 espirit
espirit's picture

So... the dealer is threatening to cutoff the junkie's fix - or not.

Methinks the junkie will look to score elsewhere.

This should get interesting soon.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:35 | 3550153 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Well done and marking the highs for the entire move on the New Moon.. strap in niggas it's over.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:36 | 3550156 Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture

Pomo bitchz!

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:55 | 3550373 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

POMO Bitchez, indeed.

Even at $85B a month, the effects dilute themselves as time progresses.  As the market rises, it takes progressively more money to get it rise the same percentage increase, esp when it's just the Fed and the HFT whores playing circle jerk.  We're about half way through and the dose is wearing thin.

These guys are not masters of the universe...not even close.  They're making this stuff up as they go, hopng that time and amortization will work in their favor.  They are mistaken.  Time is their enemy.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 10:46 | 3551274 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

Thanks for the video link - it's been a while since I watched it and it never loses it's power

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:38 | 3550166 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

pulse the system, babies!

Then see how fucked they are.

- Ned

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:39 | 3550170 denverdolomte
denverdolomte's picture

Anyone know what company the Corruptable Reserve cough I mean Federal Reserve uses to shred their paper work? I want to go long on that company Monday..... 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:45 | 3550190 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I'm about to watch a bunch of those bastards go cold turkey right now.

Downloaded Assualt on Wall Street.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:46 | 3550194 tempo
tempo's picture

robots and tapering. Millions of jobs are eliminated each year via automation/robots and its accelerating. As jobs disappear, taxes and consumption (std of living) decline. This has been hidden by central bankd stimulus now at $85 billion/m via FED and $75 billion/m via Japan central banks. Any FED exit will result in the long overdue mkt correction and a lot of social unrest as people realize that their std of lving is going down. robot win. viva les miserable.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:46 | 3550198 GVB
GVB's picture

"That the market will obviously "overreact" is a given: for reasons why, read this"

Of course that's why they announce this in the weekend. 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:47 | 3550199 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

However it unfolds, if it even does, JPM, Goldman, Morgan, and BAC will allways know it before you do, and that's all that really matters.

I would bet even money on that over any investment available in the markets right now.


Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:33 | 3550313 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

however it unfolds - and then the fun begins - because it's among those guys (citi is toast) that the real war takes place.  right now, i think gs big winner, jamie dimon gets a good spanking - ms is done and bac has so many deposits - they can only let citi fail....  blankfein learned to keep his trap shut about god's work a few years ago.  time to book the profits, put the cds and place and take the chips off the tables (and see who can cover the 100's trillions in cds).  i'd be very surprised if they pull it that soon - but bernake exiting his jack-off hole doesn't look like he wants to be around when the fingers are pointing.

it's going to be a lot of fun and laughs - i can promise that.  but when?  i can't believe they are all going to let big bad bama play at being the first (and last for a LOOOONG TIME) 1/2 black president without paying something for it, but when?  timing is everything.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:48 | 3550201 Element
Element's picture

< cough>Liquidity Trap</cough>

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:53 | 3550226 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Tyler discussed the disparities in yields earlier. You couldn't be more spot on Element.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:57 | 3550233 Element
Element's picture

People are about to get aquatinted with what one is.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!