This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Hilsenrath "Tapering" Article Is Out
Yesterday, the rumor turned out to be a joke. Today, there was no rumor, but as we warned four hours ago, it was only a matter of time. Less than four hours later, the time has come, and Jon Hilsenrath's "Fed Maps Exit from Stimulus", conveniently appearing after the close, has just been released.
From Hilsy, and one of his final attempts to remain relevant, pointing out what everyone already knew:
Federal Reserve officials have mapped out a strategy for winding down an unprecedented $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program meant to spur the economy—an effort to preserve flexibility and manage highly unpredictable market expectations.
Don't expect an imminent announcement.
Officials say they plan to reduce the amount of bonds they buy in careful and potentially halting steps, varying their purchases as their confidence about the job market and inflation evolves. The timing on when to start is still being debated.
The whisper sellside consensus is that it will be the September FOMC meeting, just after the Jackson Hole meeting at which Bernanke will be absent, that the first details of the flow "slowdown" will be revealed. But there is certainly no consensus.
The Fed's strategy for how and when to wind down the program is of intense interest in financial markets. While the strategy being debated leaves the Fed plenty of flexibility, it might not be the clear and steady path markets expect based on past experience.
Officials are focusing on clarifying the strategy so markets don't overreact about their next moves. For example, officials want to avoid creating expectations that their retreat will be a steady, uniform process like their approach from 2003 to 2006, when they raised short-term interest rates in a series of quarter-percentage-point increments over 17 straight policy meetings.
That the market will obviously "overreact" is a given: for reasons why, read this. As for the rest of the WSJ piece, it is fluff.
Regarding bets when the unwind begins, a look at the change in the VIX forward curves gives us some idea:
If correct, put the date September 17-18 in your calendars.
* * *
For those who missed it earlier, here again is the preview of the market's "Taper" Tantrum:
From Scotiabank, on why a "tapering" may be imminent, if only for purely optical and "transitory" reasons:
The bullets below list reasons why the Fed would want to “leak” hints of a tapering now.
- On Monday morning of this week, the RBNZ (New Zealand) and BoK (Korea) intervened in the currency market to try to dull the strength of their currencies. Soon afterward, Sweden and Chile announced they might have to intervene as well. Poland cuts rates to weaken the Zloty.
- These actions and comments show that the external ramifications of QE will no longer be tolerated passively. These moves represent a tacit protest against QE. It could be argued that if QE policies do not subside soon, other governments are now willing to retaliate with counter-measures (currency wars, “a race to the bottom”, protectionism).
- When FOMC members discuss the “costs” of their policies, they are partially referring to the potential for asset bubbles and distortions to price discovery. The Fed has had its foot on the accelerator so long that easing off should provide information from how markets react.
- In the past 10 days, the yield on the Barclays High Yield Index has collapsed from 5.37% to 4.97%. A 4-handle on Junk bonds is truly remarkable. High Grade spreads have also been tightening materially.
- Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums have been declining rapidly and plummeted the past two weeks to all-time low levels. Certainly, marginal buyers have continued to be chased into the market from fears of missing the up-trade and promises of the Fed “put” protecting the downside, but the collapse in CDS premiums represent bear capitulation and the futile results of hedging risk.
- Equities are higher by almost 15% YTD (46% on an annualized basis). The FOMC wants asset inflation (the Pigou Effect), but trading has become decidedly one way. The S&P 500 has rallied 13 out of the last 14 days. There was increasing talk of equities “melting up” and finally stated publicly by Stan Druckenmiller.
- NYSE Margin Debt has matched the highest levels in history (July 2007).
- Tobin’s Q ratio is the best predictor of market corrections (of 20%+). James Tobin won a noble prize for it. He hypothesized that the combined market value of all the companies on the stock market should be about equal to their replacement costs. The Q ratio is calculated as the market value of a company divided by the replacement value of the firm's assets. The ratio is approaching levels similar to 1907, 1929, 1937, 1969, 2001/2, and 2008.
- The Fed has been accused of ‘enabling’ fiscal stalemate. There is an article in the WSJ today about how improving Federal finances lessens the urgency for Republicans and Democrats to negotiate. Stable and rising asset market prices have the same effect. As negotiations begin, providing a warning shot that the Fed cannot do the heavy lifting forever, may be a wise move.
- After all, the debt ceiling limit gets hit next week on May 18th, at which point the Treasury will have to invoke extraordinary measures to prevent default (something they can do until September).
- Congressional and market criticism has been increasing.
- The Treasury will probably be cutting issuance in Q3 due to an improving position. This effectively means if the Fed continues to buy at the current pace, it would be buying an even greater percentage of visible supply.
- It is possible that Bernanke made a suggestion about ‘tapering’ in his Chicago speech today, when he used the words “reaching for yield”. The dollar and the bond market are just beginning to notice and react. The other markets will likely soon follow.
Fed tapering would catch the market off-sides. At some level, FOMC members must realize they have created a moral hazard dilemma and conditions of over-promising what they can deliver. Tapering would symbolically put a dent in market sentiment and the implicit ‘put’. The many investors that have been drifting into riskier assets in a scramble for yield would begin to prudently re-focus on the downside risks to these assets.
It is possible a steep decline in financial assets would ensue with the lowest part of the capital structure being hurt the most. The Fed has chased investors all in the same direction; into risk-seeking securities. Few care about “right-tail” events, but should investors decide to pare risk in reaction to a hint of ‘tapering’, the overshoot to the downside may surprise many. The combination of too many sellers, too few buyers, and dreadful (and declining) liquidity means a down-side overshoot is highly likely. It would provide the Fed with their answer as to whether they have been creating market bubbles.
»
- 88450 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Yup...Death Spiral...QE becomes EQ...!!
The Chairman articulated it today. He went from quantitatively easing to eloquently quixotic in one fell swoop.
And then he sent "Hilsey" out to do the dirty work
WE ARE DONE...!!
"Official Mouthpiece Says Sell"
Limit Down Likely On Sunday.
Read the Chairman's speech carefully. His warnings are artfully laced within. Additionally, Plosser and Fisher were dispatched on the same day to spread the "dissention mention". Finally, "Hilsy" drops the Fed-approved dime.
They tried, they failed, they created disequilibriums in the Global macro/financial/market 'balances'...AND FINALLY, they NEED a crash...!! Funny how the eclipse plays into the kook-fringe element quite perfectly, like a bunch of cycle clocks and wave 'counts' do as well...FUNNY how it all comes together so coincidentally, huh..??
Oh yeah, and all those unexplained mini-"flash crashes" lately...AND even Uncle Warren and Looney Munger railing on HFT...all in time for the Mother-Of-All-Selloffs...
A Set-Up From The Get-Go...!!
After hours , Friday PM release done on purpose...
With Joe and Josephine 1 pack, and their ADD, they will barely remember the next day what they ate for dinner the night before..
A hundred times the Fed has threatened to stop inflationary money printing and a hundred times they have not. But this time it will be different.
Short Treasuries BITCHEZ!
Wait. Not now. Too soon. Never fight the Fed on its own turf, especially as it can digitally make 01 with impunity.
For now. This too shall pass. Let them ruin themselves, not you.
What's the end game whitenight???
You'll get reamed if you do. The max pain is still in Europe, UK and Japan. Money will flow into US treasury safe haven. Watch stocks correct and bond yields stay low, or go even lower. That is why QE can end now. Bond yields will stay low for a long time.
@mkkby, "That is why QW can end now....bond yields will stay low for a long time." I believe you are completely correct. Bernanke no longer has to worry about supporting the treasury market; cleanest dirty shirt theory applies and the Japanese have his back. As ekm has repeatedly stated, oil is key and the oil market will be taken down, as will the entire commodity complex (including gold). Stocks will follow gold south, but it sure looks as if "they" are ready to make that sacrifice and hit the kill switch.
Nope. If QE ends stocks and commodities are dropping like a stone. Gold & silver get killed. USD gets a lot stronger.
US treasuries are the safe haven and end up negative interest rates... At least till the US government increase the debt ceilling and try selling to the real world rather than the Fed.
The US government fiscal crisis comes later as people realise the congress isn't going to stop spending like a drunken sailor & start taking profits on UST. Gold is only bid as the US bond/fiscal crisis unfolds.
Course... You have Japan out there doing it all first so what do I know. Maybe JPY will collapse before & force the Japanese into inflation protection.
Point being. Gold is the last place people will go, they'll try USD and US Treasuries first.
SPY closed down AH 16 cents. Wow, some big deal this is. Maybe a dip at the open until all the "heroes" come in to rescue the market. After all, pulling the Fed out means everything must be good, right?
For reference/ Mr. wang: The Australian A$ broke parity(usd) today for the first time in a year .
Personally, I'm selling the rallies.
I'm personally glad to see that, sorry.
Going to be interesting when the money in bank accounts starts to mobilize.
C ya @ 95 Element. It takes two sides to make a trade. (two algos?) I like a spirited man!
you probably will ... but that will be ok too, if you know what I mean ;D
No matter the outcome, I'm on you're side.
Market crash covers up Benghazi gate. Or more importantly I believe the real problem the Fed is concerned with is the lack of gold to deliver. Individuals are requesting gold delivery right now instead of the etf paper gold. Providing that delivery is a huge problem if it doesn't add up and we all suspect that it does not. This is the rock and the hard place the Fed finds themselves in right now. More easing increase the desire for gold. Less QE easing supresses the gold desire at least for the short term. Gold getting slammed along with other commodities is signaling a change is near.
E A,
Spot-On..!!
Plus, there's the new World Currency Regime and it's roll-out to consider. It IS happening and a crash MUST precede it. Finally, gold will be partially backing the formulaic 'basket' of whatever drawing rights are conjured (mesuspects, they have known where they were going with it for over 22 months). Therefore, gold must and WILL suffer some carnage in front of the event.
Coming soon to a Nation and banking system near you.
I was thinking the same thing about Gold. Especially with all of the Foreign Countries and some States demanding their Gold. If the Gold has to be purchased for delivery, how convenient it would be for a Gold crash. Plus, many who have paper Gold may not want delivery now.
The other worry for the FED has to be China starting to trade with other Countries in THEIR Currency. The status of the US as the Reserve Currency is in jeopardy.
M U S T! D R I VE! G O L D! L O W E R..................
MUST DRIVE ZIONISM HIGHER, AND RUIN JEWS, GENTILE AND SECULARISTS.
Mayer Rothschild was hofjuden, money changer for the Vatican, and his descendants are money changers for career politicians who care nothing for the people and only care for their bank balance.
Nazis.
Buy gold,silver,land and stay closest to family and friends. Defy the globalists, the cynical hateful Rothschild Zionism which employs naive boys to do their bidding.
Nm
What did I say?
I don't think Sep 17 will be the date.
The date will either be next meeting or on Monday.
They don't need a meeting to stop it. It's open ended.
Money talks, and bullshit walks. The Zionists are losing.
The Lord God Almighty will not be mocked by the globalists/Zionists/NWO. His will will be done, and He hath already defeated Satan.
Even if they do taper, it's an opportunity to start another stealth, more secretive program to accomplish the exact same goals...you know, give them some breathing room and cred.
See, we're no longer monetizing...and the world didn't blow up
Every evil plan has a successor..
I agree with EKM that the date may not be Sep 17.
The reason is because the FED gave notice at the last FED meeting that they will Increase or DECREASE purchases in the future.
So, I agree that at this point it is "open ended" and they do not need a future meeting.
One beautiful day we may see the POMO was not implemented. Monday, next week....
It all depends on orders the Fed will receive due to following issues:
1) Crude oil price
2) (this has become quite important) Even australia is doing currency swap with china. This is a policital disaster.
Is this the beginning of the end? Or the end of the beginning? Or the beginning of the beginning? Or maybe... the end of the end. With the way Congress operates along with the Fed Reserve it's just hard to tell.
I should be in gold! No, wait... I should be in blue chip dividend stocks! No, wait... I should be in cash! No, real estate! No, no, no... small businesses that's it! No, I should diversify into all of them! No, I should just be in... gold! No...
I believe we are entering the beginning of the middle of the end. Right now, cash and volatility are your best bets.
Funny enough, the bullish blogoshere is taking the news as bullish because it signals it in Sept. Their reasoning has it that we rally right up until then...!!
Physical gold, silver, land and honest community; family and friends. Buy that.
Zionists are waging endless war with blood and treature of everyone else, and using the USA.
Funny, I don't recall the Fed's concern over market reaction when they stepped up their corrupt policy each and every time the markets faced breaking a major support or trend line over the past three years.
The beginning of the middle of the end of the end? Or the beginning of the middle of the end of the middle? I need to ensure that I'm in full alignment with Fed actions. They are in such amazing control of our economy and so smart. They always do the right thing and there is so much to learn from this august body of central bankers. I just want to know where I am in this brilliant cycle that our central bank architects have created. I wish Hilsenrath just openly told us what part of what sub-cycle we are in. I guess it doesn't really matter. They are in charge, their predictions have always been spot on, they can manage the economy with precision and reduce the money supply in an orderly fashion without any collateral damage. Most of those guys have Ph.d's in economics. What do I know? I'm not gonna worry about it. The purchasing power of the USD continues to improve as the currency strengthens based on the strong fundamentals of our economy. Bernanke is indeed our hero.
So my question for Tyler is this. Will this change your thesis on treasuries now or not? I thought we would see 1.5 on the ten year before we saw 2.25 but the opposite looks true. Also gold looks like its going to test 1300 sooner rather than later.
You underestimate the power of the burning house. I would actually take a guess that the announcement of the end of QE itself would be a jolt enough to crash the market and drop the 10yr 25bps that day.
People who expect a spike in U.S interest rates are essentially expecting the end of the U.S economy and the monetary system as we know it. While it seeems almost guaranteed at this point. The path from here to there is going to be violently unpleasant.
fonz...what if.....what if they cut the cord and stocks continue to levitate.....then what.......
Nobody has interest in levitation. Nobody makes money from levitation.
Maybe too many People with Good Credit are financing out of the profitable High Interest Rate Loans and costing the Banks a bundle. The Banks will be left with Higher Interest Rate Loans only for the worst Borrowers.
After all the best loans are the ones made to People with Good Credit.
1290, and buy more.
Weak hands will be shaken out before the reset.
This and the Pimco tweet are all a bunch of bullshit.
The economy is rolling over into full blown depression and these dickheads want to scare us out of our bonds.
T M,
Well, there is THAT..!!
"an effort to preserve flexibility and manage highly unpredictable market expectations."
To all of you in the $ industry, there will be a time when it is no longer acceptable to simply vomit when you get home.
There is opportunity to use your voice against the Fed, and you are choosing to remain dumb.
You may notice there is a deep pattern here, but you will not find a chart to explain it, let alone one that will make you feel better.
what would be the rationale for ending or tapering QE? is inflation or inflation expectations rising per the metrics that the Fed likes to observe? is unemployment level rapidly declining and the quality of labor market improvement is what the Fed wants? The worldwide counter devaluations have been expected and have been on-going- that is not a revelation. if true, something else is afoot. this article creates more questions than provides answers. is this guy from Boston who created a mini crash with his tweet-in-fun was trial-balooning this article? WTF..................are they suddenly happy with the financial condition of TBTF? will they let them fail?
http://grooveshark.com/s/Ain+t+That+Peculiar/2MQlA8?src=5
Ain't That Peculiar by Marvin Gaye
.
"..peculiar-ality." m.g.
Time to front run the FED.
front running the fed is the "economy"
and the meaning of the word "price"
today; tomorrow may be, dare I say it,
different?
.
http://grooveshark.com/s/Cave+In/4KCf5V?src=5
Cave In by Grant McLennan
.
" where is the beat
where is the breath?" g.m.
.
where is the breadth?
Anyone like conspiracies? Here is one for you. Let's say you are the Fed, the Plunge Protection Team lead, or perhaps some other nefarious group of economic mastermind manipulators. And that your goal is to take down gold, while at the same time adding liquidity to the banking system. Here would be a good game plan:
1) Create a war chest of funny money (digitally printed) from the Fed.
2) Create a trading team and teach them how to crash the gold price at selected times.
3) Tell your friends at the major banks and investment houses when you are going to do the takedowns.
This would work, as long as you had the regulators in your back pocket. The banks would benefit from trading the takedowns, while at the same time gold would be kept down. The only problem with this plan is that eventually physical gold becomes hard to find - and you have a shortage. We seem to be approaching that point as witnessed by the Hong Kong gold delivery reports for April.
I think John Embry, Jim Sinclair, and the rest of the gold bulls are right. We are getting very close to a major breakout. At some point, this correction is going to end and it will be off to the races for gold and silver.
www.goldsilverdata.com (for mining stocks information).
;-) -----
;-( ---
.
to red neg.
someday.
.
http://grooveshark.com/s/Somewhere+from+West+Side+Story/2DfYL1?src=5
.
Somewhere (from 'West… by Tom Waits on Blue
.
Share: Ruby's Arms by Tom Waits
http://grooveshark.com/s/Ruby+s+Arms/RPFZe?src=5
.
see ?
Newager, your little hypothesis is a cold hard reality.
I always relied on the tapering of strangers...
I'm tellin' ya..."The Collaborators" KNEW this was coming...One of the biggest and widest broadening tops known to man. A 'distribution paradise'...and the shills @ CNBC and Tom "The Douche" Keene @ Bloomberg knowingly cheerlead the slaughter.
Check the commercials on all of 'risk-land'. They are ready to the nines. Look at how much and for how long VIXes were loaded in. Especially VIXes..!! Dissuading retail with scary tales of 'contango'. Now, we'll see the Mother-of-All backwardations on those suckers. I'm tellin' ya triples and quadruples in a day are coming..!!
That's the real crime...This PUMP AND DUMP was better than Wubistics on the Sopranos
If I had any stake at all in the stock market, I would give a damn about the lying scumbag corrupt Hilsenrath and his crony propaganda.
But I don't.
Most mature thing I've ever done in my life: giving up hope that paper assets can ever be a safe storage for my labor.
I believe the FED is going to quit injecting 85 billion a month so that they can begin injecting 170 billion into the market. Before it's over the Dow will be at 6,000,000,000 meanwhile women will be boiling the emicated corpses of their own children à la North Korea just to stay alive.
Shorts have been squeezed out of the system. Now time to hunt down the Longs.
The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
Absolute Fact...!!
"The Collaborators" are ready for the other side of this trade...!! An obvious set-up in so many ways that I cannot even begin to list them. But make no mistake, this 'set-up' is the height of CONSPIRACY.
Well there goes the gold bull market.
Now we know what JPM and GS knew several months ago
That's Right....They've been layering in for months....!! Look Out Below
They'll never stop....not in my lifetime. Even the hint of <$85 Billion sends the markets into a Tailspin.
We'll find out Monday. My guess is stocks down a litlte, gold down a lot.
we will learn on Monday absolutely
what? my guess is nothing.
so it goes .... it is a relentless
uselessness that invades the entire
self. good luck and
best to you !.
Umm... i'd be pretty nervous right now if i owned stocks. They'll puke monday.
Why would stocks puke on Monday, this news came out midday on Friday and the market nudged... but even on Monday with the Friday rumor now being fact... any selloff will be bought.
This is it!
The pull back everyone has been waiting for!!!!!!!!!!
If I'm managing money, Jon's release makes me jumpy about next week. Not September.
Yup...The supports and moving averages are nested so far up....very close to our present levels...'supports' just made to be broken... Don't forget, THE overriding theme WILL BE to blame the machines..!!
Those stories are already set-up. Check out how many times CNBC FEATURED "HFT" as a demon over the past couple of weeks...??
WTF
I agree with you about CNBC and all of the attention to HFT recently. Could it be they want to get rid of HFT before the Crash? Because HFT will front run every Sell Trade and tank the Market faster than a speeding bullet. Just like they front ran every Buy Trade.
W,
I believe they need a pre-engineered 'reason' when the "waterfallsparkles" rain down. HFT is a villainous relic from May 2010 to be trotted out again. Congressional 'hearings' will quickly follow, the Fed has cover and all the shorts are 'insiders'...!!
That's the story they'll spin...
http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc130422.htm
--
Good luck with that one boys and girls!
Well done. +1 . I'm still going to win the aussie devaluation contest against you. ;-)
lol, I replied up the page. You really think it's gonna shit the bed huh? Well that will make a lot of people happy if it does.
You better hope TAPIS comes down with it.
TAPIS. That was rich. Try this ( FUBARAWKI).
HEY...on 'normalized' 'earnings' alone, in an OK 'economy', the market is at least 35-40% overvalued...!!
Assets vs. Liabilities. Winks!
Wealth Creation Formula
Obama serves 14-state Governors with warnings of arrest....
http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-conservative/2013/05/obama-serves-14-st...
"Barack Hussein Obama had served 14-State Governors in the United States, National Security Letters (NSLs) warning that the Governor’s actions in attempting to form “State Defense Forces” needs to be halted “immediately” or they will face arrest for the crime of treason. The employment of NSLs was authorized by the Patriot Act introduced by George W. Bush. Contained within the section related to these letters, it is forbidden for anyone receiving a NSL warning to even acknowledge the existence of said communication."
WTF?
Nice link, but Dude, on topic, ok?
Jesus, it's like Liindsay Lohan rading the Iliad in here what with all the ADHD.
But Dude, I just thought it was a step up from the fairy tale of the Fed tapering.....
Who in the fuck would believe THAT story..
A national security letter (NSL) is a demand letter, which differs from a subpoena. It can be used by US government agencies, mainly the FBI, when investigating matters related to national security.[1] It is issued to a particular entity or organization to turn over various record and data pertaining to individuals. NSLs can only request non-content information, such as transactional records, phone numbers dialed or email addresses mailed to and from. They also contain a gag order, preventing the recipient of the letter from disclosing that the letter was ever issued. The gag order was ruled unconstitutional as an infringement of free speech in the Doe v. Gonzales case, but this decision was superseded by the Second Circuit Court after the USA PATRIOT Improvement and Reauthorization Act gave recipients of NSL gag orders recourse in court. On March 14, 2013, Judge Susan Illston of Federal District Court in San Francisco struck down the law establishing NSLs, writing that the prohibition on disclosure of receipt of such an order made the statute “impermissibly overbroad” under the First Amendment. Judge Illston's ruling also struck down a statute prohibiting legal challenges by recipients of the security letters, but stayed implementation of her ruling to allow the government to appeal the decision. From 2003 to 2006 the Federal Bureau of Investigation issued 192,499 national security letter requests.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/conspiracy/governors.asp
kool...Marshal Law
Dude, it's "Martial" Law. If you're going to act like you know something, you need to at least spell it correctly.
Arresting a governor would be like firing on Fort Sumpter.
That shows obama is panicking.
This is a lot more positive news, there's nothing negative there.
Rothschild 101
inflation followed by deflation. Then you buy assets with money created out of thin air for a song.
Ask someone close to Hilsenrath. Tyler saves everything.
http://www.google.com/search?q=ecb+jon+hilsenrath+linkedin&client=firefo...
As Gen Buck Turgeson said, "What a load of Commie bull."
Hilsenrath is so full of it.
Pile the BS higher and deeper old Hilsenrath boy.
Your about to be discredited Hilsenrath.
The Fed isn't going to start curtailing purchases. They can't. The y know what will result if they do.
The warm-up to the serious jaw-boning. Testing the waters.
Virtual action has proven very effective - terms of market response.
Yup, that's one of the Fed's four major "tools", derbanke identified in a 2010 speech. But the sheep keep falling for it. Thus, it more or less works.
Humans huh?
The FED will try to distance itself when the hyperinflation takes hold. They will point back at FED statements like this. They don't want to be blamed for hyperinflation/runination, of the currency, as they were in Germany inthe late 20's -early 30's.
If they "taper" "stop" or otherwise "re-examine" QE, gold is going to get horsefucked in the earhole.
Listen closely. I have always payed attention to your comments.
I know, you know your shit regarding day-to-day spending in Japan. Inflation has got to be pissing off Mrs. Watanabe?
They don't notice - most of it is hidden in lower quality materials but sold at the usual price.
That said they have NO FUCKING CONCEPT of inflation.
Mrs Watanabe is no smarter than the rest - a bowl of rice and a bit of fish and she's living the dream.
Trust Me. The \Japs will start fucking like rabbits>
When did Japan turn into a low-cost environment..?? Tokyo's been one of the World's MOST expensive-to-live-in cities for decades..!!
listen here on thas.
King Kong by Tom Waits
http://grooveshark.com/s/King+Kong/2LfZn?src=5
.
so ...?
.
yea and this !
....
...
Binny B. knows he's got to buy some gold to meet Germany's demand. He'd like to buy as low as he can. Binny will also time the dollar to gold to sooth the peasants. Not 100% gold backed, but 10% gold backed.
I don't buy that the Fed is close to tapering. The data needs to firm up before they pull the plug. Plus, they know full well that there simply is NO other side of this trade. Fast money is going to be ahead of everyone, smart real money will be out too. That leaves the slow moving end users and when they call their favorite dealers to get a bid on their treasuries or spread product, they will find that the levels will be poor, if there is a price at all.
The combination of lower risk appetite, smaller balance sheets, higher capital constraints and increased regulatory requirements will deter dealers from making markets in a gapping sell-off. Clients who are used to point and click execution on trading platforms will also find that this sort of "relationship" won't help things in a dislocated market. A taper signal might see 10s and bonds sell off 25-50 bps in a day with a corresponding move in the curve. Spread product will puke too.
Make no mistake, it will be ugly and the FOMC knows this. As much as they want to cool off the stock and housing markets (which is showing bubble effects in certain areas) and avoid currency wars, the Fed is boxed in. If they reduce QE, they will have a much steeper curve and risk asset spreads will explode, derailing the economy. Its not going to happen - at least not in the near term. And maybe not for years...
In chess we'd call it a "fork"...
I think we are in zugzwang.
Some of the idiots here really crack me up. QE is evil stealing from the poor, but stopping it is impossible? What a dumb fuck!
QE is not necessary as long as Europe, Uk and Japan are in worse shape fiscally. And they will be for decades, judging by how long Greece has been dragged out -- 5 years and counting.
So what if the Dow goes down. Treasury yields will stay low due to safe haven money coming in from all over the world. The banks will love that and heir HFT programs can start a new bull/bear cycle all over again.
You're assuming they WANT things to continue. What if there is a bigger picture at hand..?? What if, the BRICS and other non-U.S./E U G-20ers have forced change in the structure of the Reserve Currency Regime..? In that case, which there are many overt and covert signs pointing to a partially gold-backed SDR, which would necessitate some serious pre-announcement 'adjustments' to currencies, 'risk assets', and metals.
I believe it has been about this runway for a while now and they're just about ready to roll it out. To do so requires a serious 'risk-off' period, particularly in order to get gold down in dollar terms. Do you really think Japan's actions of the past 5-6 months are purely unilateral and without tacit U.S., E U/G-20 'approval'..?
Do you find it a bit odd that the Chairman and Sec "Timmy-boy" suddenly appeared, TOGETHER, in Delhi a couple of hours after a mysterious October 2012 Indian market 'flash-crash' for talks on 'economic cooperation'..?? Where does THAT little journey rank on the Secret Service "risk list"..? Or, that we've had a series of other 'events' in a controlled and isolated way since..? CBOE goes 'dark' for hours...?? Charles Schwab goes down for hours on mobile apps..?? A number of names, like GOOG, go bidless in nano-seconds...And you have a deliberate public railing against HFT on the part of Buffet and others. ALL within the past few weeks..?? Do you find ANY of it STRANGE..??
Finally, this week, we have Plosser, Fisher and the Chairman allude to QE 'tapering', with the Chairman still fixated on 'systemic risk' on Friday, and then they send out "Hilsey", a known and accepted Fed 'mouthpiece' who checks with them before he takes a dump or a pee, on a Friday evening, with a BOMBSHELL, after a day of INORDINATE movement in Oil, gold and currencies..?? Is any of it curious..??
Do you find it suspect in the least..??
I DO..!!
Over the course of the coming months, I believe we will see things we cannot even imagine...
That almost sounds like a Reinvention of Bretton Woods.
http://www.reinventingbrettonwoods.org/
The problem is the FED will crush gold but only prick stocks, and any dip will be bought. Any rise in gold will be sold.
This is the state of things, whether right or wrong. FED has scared people out of gold, and this news will do it even more. I'd rather take it on the chin for now than hold dollars so fuck it.
see above...
demand for physical is off the charts. fed hasn't scared people out of shit except paper gold. people are abandoning the paper gold ship, that's driving the price...
Me love you long time ¥ .
Get off the couch and trade pilgrims. LONG snap $ ebt cards.
When will Jap girls start eating? tOOO SKINNY.
Ship them to US.
For many good reasons.
I dunno, bumping cervix brings it all into perspective.
Tayler,
You have become so frustrated that you have started looking forward to those whom you were despising. Keep on dreaming just like you were doing when Goldman put out S&P 1250 target by the end of 2012.
Do you think about your relevance when you talk about Hilsenrath's relevance. Dont you undersatand that you are the biggest joke in the Financial Blog space?
still dreaming about Gold $2000?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Kuw_u83C7zk#!
You understand what is going on here, don't you?
Tayler,
You have become so frustrated that you have started looking forward to those whom you were despising. Keep on dreaming just like you were doing when Goldman put out S&P 1250 target by the end of 2012.
Do you think about your relevance when you talk about Hilsenrath's relevance. Dont you undersatand that you are the biggest joke in the Financial Blog space?
still dreaming about Gold $2000?
Reading this...is like listening to someone prophesize the menu for Thanksgiving dinner. In 2113.
Now. Your belly grumbling just a little less, troll?
g,
you don't like "Tayler" much, huh..?? Whoever that is...?
gk, another nebbish heard from...
http://grooveshark.com/s/I+Wish+I+Was+In+New+Orleans+in+The+Ninth+Ward/2...
Be humble
You're SOOoo right...Most important quality to possess
When will the Fed pull a Mitt Romeny?!
Does that mean run QE outta Grand Cayman..??
It feels good to give back. No matter how`. I slept 3 hours over the last 72 hours.
The scamming is a Bad Thing.
Right, It won't happen.
What will happen is Gold will be fucked in the ass from sunday night. Guaranteed.
We could test the recent low.
BTFD
Mom - n - Pop arrived just in time...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100703006
A little limerick I wrote for Bonzai:
The Chair offered discourse
Which could implode a Bourse
Shorts will see Monday
Whether VIXs will have their Day
They sent out Hilsenrath
To implode Algo-bull Math
As the Cowards they are
Can a Flash Crash be far..?
We should check their accounts
To determine their short sell amounts
Worse, they sucked in Mom and Pop
Just before THE BIG drop
For they have no shame
And they always rig the game
"If correct, put the date September 17-18 in your calendars."
If correct, lock in gains long before Sep 17-18. Why would anyone wait to be part of the reaction crowd?
I agree gold could take a hit as the Fed pulls back from the gorging table long enough to purge. A self-restrained Fed reduces both reasons PMs go higher - inflation and currency risk.
Keep an eye out for a Congress that may decide to take up any reduced Fed pumping slack.
RE; Gold dropping in price. As the Fed unwinds it's position, there will be a mass exit from financials. Everyone knows the gains in indexes are due to QE. Where will all those fund go? Real physical gold willl be "safe" refuge. Trillions of funds will chase the "safety" of gold. Barring outright control from insolvent .gov's (a real possibility) Gold will go parabolic. Should the PM's take an initial hammering while the paper burns... BTFD!
Could it be that this is to get Funds and People to Sell their Stocks and book Capital Gains? The amount of Tax revenue would be HUGE.
The same thing they did with raising Capital Gains to make sure everyone Sold before the end of last year. It was a Tax banaza for the revenue agents.
That way they get 20% back on all of the profit you made during the year. Unless of course you are one of those unfortunate people subject to Alternate Minimum Tax.
grid, if what you said is true then gold would be hyperbolic right now. it is not, because it is being manipulated lower by JPM et al. physical is over sold and they are getting despirate to hide that fact. gold may in fact go lower even under 85 billion per month of fed funny money. but what else would you want to hold? paper? fuck that...
I agree the paper gold market is dying due to exposure that it is more paper than gold, but it is still working at this time to hold down price.
From a charting perspective, some supports have been broken so recent weakness could last into the summer.
This is a buying opportunity.
Most governments are, in effect, counterfeiting their own currencies by overprinting. As long as that continues, gold remains the stable world money.
perhaps the gold smack down was due to advanced parties knowing about this tapering. Who else is going to fund the us gov though?
gold smack down has to do with the lack of physical to meet expected delivery demand plain and simple. the price has been being suppressed for two years now and they are at the end of their rope...
Beep, beep, beep.. Back up the truck & fill your container to the hilt.
No more QE means it's time for the US to get Cyprused.
we're all going to get "cyprused" but not until after the midterm elections. Deposit confiscation, IRA/401k confiscation, you name it, but it will all be for the "common good". :)
Prepare yourself:
Wealth and Savings In Danger: Bosten Consulting Group (BCG) wants haircut for everyone of 11-30% to solve debt-crisis. In the US a one-time wealth tax of 25% of financial assets would be required.http://homment.com/boston-haircut
I'd be all for that just as long as the government downsizes by the same percent. If that's not possile then they can all start working part time like everyone else ...
molon labe...
If the top 0.1% have gained 99.99% of the benefits from all this debt peddling, then they should be the ones to be taxed and pay up for a change instead of the 99.9% children's children's children paying
If they stop and that is a big "if" who buys the bonds? Your 401K possibly??
The administration has been monitoring 401Ks and IRAs for a while. Their trying to figure out a way they can pay off more debt and still pay for illegal amnesty to get extra voters and the costs associated with it.
Know of many illegals collecting medicaid and welfare, even though their not supposed to. The administration looks the other way.
Anyone else hate the "IF" tech arguements? Guess it's just me. I would rather dig into all the real goings on of which their are a plenty...
So now we get the supposed news item that has weighed on gold recently, and taking me out of positions. Except for the shock value lasting a day or maybe two next week, if that, I won't be surprised to see this massively deflationary suggestion actually put upward pressure on precious metals while the rest of the commodity complex shrivels. Too bad I'll only be on for the ride with the remaining 20% long term core holdings. It turns out that is about all I can hold without giving a shit what happens, so I can ignore everything that comes out of these lying fuckers' mouths and get on with life.
i still don't think the Fed will taper QE but....could they be discussing internally how or under what circumstances to taper? sure. is it going to happen? there is a small chance it can happen. the Fed under BB has proven itself capable of doing less than well thought out action. i recall that they actually raised rates early on in the crisis, then there was a period when they paused with their interventions only to resume QE several months later. is this time any different? well BB is on the way out- OK. Yellen is probably in. so no big change in the mindset at the top is likely. what if the Fed is seriously frustrated with the "wealth" effect and suddenly take the other point of view more seriously that basically their QE efforts speed up evolution to "rentier" economy (a cancer for Capitalism)? the consequences of that pivot would be quite serious in the markets and very welcome on my part- I am still dreaming of the free price discovery in all the markets. however this is very unlikely IMHO. so what could be going on if Hilsy is right? unexpected tapering of QE would result in solidifying USD as a reserve currency and that I think may be what the Fed is after.....
Bernank just needs a soothing melody to offset the ass wrenching Wall Street Muppets crying foul during the free money gravy train disengagement process. :P
"Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus"
I can draw maps of imaginary places, too. The Fed is in a ZIRP trap. They stop pumping in cash, the whole Ponzi comes crashing down.
"Timing of Wind-Down Is Uncertain"
Sometime before the year 3040.
"Focus Is on Managing Unpredictable Market Expectations"
To the Fed, due to their garbage economic models based upon a garbage economic theory which can't predict anything correctly (see Greenspan and Bernanke on YouTube), everything is "Unpredictable Market Expectations."
You guys are shellshocked, aren't you?