Eric Sprott: The Golden Answer To Chinese Import Data

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Eric Sprott, Etienne Bordeleau, and David Franklin of Sprott Group,

Manufacturing data in the last several months has suggested that economic growth around the world is slowing. However, China’s export growth surprised the market this week and unexpectedly accelerated in April, even as shipments to the U.S. and Europe fell. This has created a conundrum for analysts and market watchers. How can China be growing while the countries that purchase its exports are slowing? The numbers don’t add up.

Digging deeper into these figures, several analysts have come to the conclusion that the numbers are faulty. Bank of America Corp. and Mizuho Securities Co. analysts have gone so far to say the figures have been inflated by fake reports. An “astounding” 92.9 percent jump in exports to Hong Kong, the most in 18 years, raises questions on data quality, researcher IHS Inc. said. They even call some of the data ‘absurd’, suggesting that exporters are ‘faking orders’ to obtain export-tax rebates. These observations challenge the credibility of Chinese economic data once again.

It is has been suggested that China’s robust appetite for commodities from iron ore to crude oil show that Chinese domestic demand is healthy, alleviating concerns about a renewed slowdown. China’s recent surge in gold imports puts this ‘increase in domestic demand’ observation into question. Our analysis shows that trade statistics are biased by the large gold inflows the country has experienced over the past few years. Because gold imports are accounted for in the “import” numbers of the current account (instead of the capital account like other investments), they artificially inflate the total import numbers published in the Financial Press. We say “inflate” because gold, unlike other materials, is mostly used for investment purposes and as such should not qualify as an import of “goods and services”, which is used to measure real economic activity. Now that China is importing significant quantities of gold, trade flow numbers are becoming more distorted.

When we strip out the ‘gold effect’, we find that 37% of the increase in imports over the last 12 months into China is due to the massive amount of gold that’s being imported. In Table A, gross imports increased by $82 billion, but $30 billion of this increase was from gold alone.  Put another way, more than one third of China’s import growth has been solely from its citizens’ desire to own gold and not from a growing domestic economy.

Table A

For the 12 months ending Gross Imports Gold Imports (tonnes) Value of Gold Imports Imports excl. Gold
  (USD Bn) (tonnes) (USD Bn) (USD Bn)
March 2012 1,772 546 32 1,740
March 2013 1,854 1,071 62 1,792
Change 82 525 30 52

Source: Bloomberg, General Administration of Customs (via Bloomberg), Census and Statistics Department – Hong Kong, Sprott Asset Management

Many analysts have attributed China’s increasing imports as signs of a healthy manufacturing sector, or increasing investments in infrastructure and property. Our simple analysis shows that more than one third of the increase in imports is due to China’s increasing gold consumption. We expect this will only increase in the near future when the explosion of gold buying in April is accounted for. New reports have suggested that Chinese housewives (affectionately known as ‘aunties’ according to the Beijing Daily newspaper) have purchased as much as 300 tons of gold in the past three weeks alone, worth almost $16 billion USD. This new gold buying could have a significant impact on Chinese import statistics and force analysts to reconsider the strength of the Chinese domestic economy.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Aeternus's picture

It's only a matter of time until COMEX and LBMA run out of phyzz.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deuC8GPr31A

BigJim's picture

Aw Tyler, don't I get a "h/t"?

debtor of last resort's picture

See something, say something.... ;-)

James_Cole's picture

Hey Sprott, how are your ETFs doing? Good times am I right? Guess everyone is pretty stoked they can pay you guys high fees (let's be fair they are a bit high - but obviously worth it) to climb aboard the Sprott rocket to success. Not every etf manager can rack up a fantastic negative ~40% ytd. 

Keep up the good work, look forward to more hot stock picks like csi.to

Dr Benway's picture

Here's one way for his funds to engineer some profits fraudulently, to make up for it.

 

Take flailing penny stock, inject enough money to control share price, ramp it 50% immediately, book 50% unrealized profit immediately. Check out Sprott Global's great investment in Birimian Gold.

 

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BGS.AX

 

James_Cole's picture

Sprott Asset Management's side business of conning investors into garbage penny stock exploration companies unfortunately doesn't work as well when applied to their ETFs. 

Pinto Currency's picture

 

These are the declared gold imports through Hong Kong.

Actual gold import levels are likely much higher. 

China is accepting gold as payment for goods delivered to Africa and other nations.

It also has undeclared physical off-take agreements with Australian miners, among others.

Sroll down at this link.  Where is the gold coming from?:

http://www.goldminerpulse.com/v/shanghaiGoldExchangePhysicalDelivery.php

buyingsterling's picture

People invest with Sprott because they trust him to store actual metal that they can have delivered. If you don't like it don't participate. As for the penny stocks, any time spent researching them and valuing them has to be backed by a fairly sizeable investment to warrant the hassle. In other words, stop crying because you don't own any physical metal. I'm sure you can load up when it tanks vs increasingly valuable fiat.

James_Cole's picture

People invest with Sprott because they trust him to store actual metal that they can have delivered. If you don't like it don't participate.

Whatever reason people are investing in his mutual funds it's certainly not performance lol

quasimodo's picture

Troll? Or are your etf's down -40% ytd?

BigJim's picture

Christ, you are a dufus. Mark McGoldPrick... that was one of your previous aliases, wasn't it? We keep beating the shit out of you, but after licking your wounds you just have to come crawling back, don't you.

Can you please just give us a list of all the future aliases you have in mind? So we can down-arrow them without having to waste our time reading them.

akak's picture

James Cole certainly is one committed anti-gold troll, whomever he may have been here earlier.

He certainly has the stink of a paid .gov shill and propagandist about him.

 

James_Cole's picture

Yes not only am I paid .gov shill I am actually head of the comex which is why I am CONSISTENTLY correct on the price direction of gold. Meanwhile Sprott + foolish commentators on here are CONSISTENTLY wrong.

Sprott loses 40% in his garbage ETF YTD and people on here love him, I am correct 8 months straight and people whine at me like little babies.

Reality sucks dont it!

fockewulf190's picture

I take you invest in paper.  I used to do that years ago, but got sick of all the manipulation, fraud and flat out printing of fiat out of thin air. Now I stack phyzz as fast as I can convert this shit I´m being given for my hard earned work.  It would be great if I could trust the markets again, but they are hopelessly broken.  Maybe one day after the Great Reset.  Good luck to you.

James_Cole's picture

I take you invest in paper.  I used to do that years ago, but got sick of all the manipulation, fraud and flat out printing of fiat out of thin air. Now I stack phyzz as fast as I can convert this shit I´m being given for my hard earned work.  It would be great if I could trust the markets again, but they are hopelessly broken.  Maybe one day after the Great Reset.  Good luck to you.

Gold has proven to be a good long term investment century after century, naturally I think it's a good thing to have a portion of ones portfolio in.

However, like any market the pm market features prominent con-artists trying to take advantage of peoples ignorance. And there are certainly people with an unrealistic expectation of the market and a naiveté of how it functions so I advocate caution. That's it, not telling people to invest in 'paper' or sell their gold. My basic point is don't believe all the hyperbole and don't expect a quick turn around. 

People on here have very thin skin and consider even mild criticism to be totally unacceptable. 

akak's picture

James, you come across here like a (slightly) more polite version of Jon Nadler, trying to ostensibly present yourself as the voice of reason, "caution" and moderation regarding gold, yet you continually misrepresent almost every aspect of its inherent function and value as a monetary asset.  Now why would anyone do that?

James_Cole's picture

yet you continually misrepresent almost every aspect of its inherent function and value as a monetary asset.

If you consider our odd disagreement over jewellery being a separate classification of gold demand to mean 'every aspect of its inherent function and value as a monetary asset' then yes.

Otherwise, I see the value of gold in a pretty non-controversial way - great hedge against inflation / store of wealth. 

My comments that make people angry on here generally involve me complaining about con men like Sprott or saying the story around physical shortage doesn't add up. 

All the same, I don't argue that those factors make gold a bad investment. It just means to me there are good and bad times to buy gold and that it should be seen on either a much longer timeline or as a much riskier investment than what the cabal of con artists suggest. 

silvermail's picture

@ James_Cole

I've heard exactly the same arguments and reasons in 2008, when the price of gold fell from $ 1,000 to $ 700.
In 2008, I read these arguments and reasons from some eccentrics, but I laughed at them and buying gold and silver.
And right now I too read these arguments and reasons, I laugh again and I again buy gold and silver. LOL

Alpo for Granny's picture

Come on Sprott...bust this thing won't ya?

jcpicks's picture

BTFD is meaningless now. Spot no longer has any association to physical.

Just buy the phyzz!

SpykerSpeed's picture

Aaaaany day now!  Just you wait and see!  Only a matter of time!

That seems to be the theme of ZeroHedge and gold bugs.

buyingsterling's picture

Don't be hard on him. He spends all his time in the gym, waiting for results 'any day now'.

Rustysilver's picture

So, all Chinese economic data is fake. Except for gold. Right!

duo's picture

Damn near everything in the world right now is fake.

Our money, our food, tungsten in our gold, global warming and cooling at the same time, economic statistics, prices, interest rates, boobs, you name it.

I believe the Cs 137 from Fukushima is real, though.

Rustysilver's picture

duo,

Your are saying that boobs are fake too. Damn.

duo's picture

most of them, except in France

Cacete de Ouro's picture

All the trade stats for gold are 'masked' I would have thought.
For the UK and Switzerland they are at least. I haven't checked for other countries. It would be a full time job...someone can pay me and i'll do it...

For the UK:
the customs authorities and trade collection agencies collect monetary gold imports and export stats but they do not report them. Essentially they report rolled up trade categories but the individual gold category is not reported. To prevent anyone calculating the missing figure by adding up all other categories, they 'mask' and do not report othed categories, so its impossible to goal seek or reverse engineer the data.

This is all done at the request of the Treasury and the Bank of England, in 'the national interest', because old boy we can't have anyone knowing how much gold is flowing in and out of London, you understand..

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

i'm OK with fake boobs. party on.

BigJim's picture

 So, all Chinese economic data is fake. Except for gold. Right!

Only the Chinese stuff is ersatz. If you've got any data from a Western gub, it's the Real McCoy. 101% !

Rustysilver's picture

BigJim,

I am in US. All data and statisitics from any .gov in the west as well as in east is as real as Chinese lamb.

Jendrzejczyk's picture

With so few simple pleasures left, you had to ruin Chinese lamb. ;[)

BigJim's picture

Chinese lamb is real!

Admittedly, their lambs are unusually small... and have hairless tails... but they ARE real!

Make me laugh! 

BigJim's picture

 BigJim,

I am in US. All data and statisitics from any .gov in the west as well as in east is as real as Chinese lamb.

Sorry, my bad. I should have said 153.127% real. 

DeadFred's picture

Fake data makes one wonder about this calculation as well. The 37% figure assumes the data is real but most likely the Chinese would under report gold and over report other economic numbers meaning the 37% could be a gross underestimate. War is coming and China will likely be involved. The ramp up across all commodity types has an end game feel to it in my estimation. Could be an interesting summer manuevering season.

observer007's picture

GERALD CELENTE: PRICE OF GOLD IS RIGGED

Gerald Celente comments on gold market rigging, among other things. Celente says: "Why aren't gold and silver prices going up? They should be. Everyone knows that game is rigged. I believe that the Federal Reserve and the other central banks are manipulating the prices to keep interest rates low."

http://homment.com/celente-goldwar

nobodyimportant's picture

Gerald Celente -- smart guy - right?  Then how in the hell did he get ripped off by GF Mobile?

Playing the leverage game by someone who should have known better!

Tinky's picture

He liked it because it rhymed with "MF Global". Can you blame him?

JumpinJonnyK's picture

I just keep buying gold and silver every couple months.  Not worried about the price right now, because it's going to go higher in the future (at least I think).  I was a buyer of junk silver coins for silver but the premiums are REALLY high right now (here's the best silver calculator I have found http://www.coinvalues.com/silver )  Im thinking about buying 10 oz silver bars to save money on premium was wondering what some people think about this idea. 

Likstane's picture

They sink faster, but they are easier to find.

Room 101's picture

You need to look at the spread.  What can you buy for (cheapest dealer) vice what you can sell for (most generous dealer). The 10 Toz bars are pretty good right now; about a .50 spread/per Toz. 

https://comparesilverprices.com/

forwardho's picture

 Its a hard.

Its a hard.

Its a hard rain gonna fall.

RaceToTheBottom's picture

Chinese understand the historical role of Gold.

It will take a while for thier hubris to match that of WS Scum

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

How many gold mines does Eric own up there in the Great White North?  Or anywhere else?  Which ones?  I know I would, with his 'fiat'.

W T F II's picture

Gold will go still lower in front of NWO...then buy...!!