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Speculator Gold Gross Shorts At All Time Highs

Tyler Durden's picture


Premia for gold bars (physical over paper) rallied to their highest since late-2008 according to SocGen, even as 'professional' investors look to position the exact other way. The combined short positions of futures and options speculators in COMEX gold is now at a record high for the third week (having surged from 4.3 million ounces in late September to a a stunning 13.9 million ounces short now. At the same time, Gold ETFs have only seen one in-flow day in the last 34 days. It seems investors are well-and-truly on one side of this boat - even as price continues to buck the supposed structural weakness.

COMEX Gross Short positions...


ETF Holdings...


but price is now ignoring the flows (despite the protestations of some in the media)...



Via SocGen:

Shortage of metal drives premium higher as customers told to wait for delivery


While many professional investors looked to exit the market, the opposite response in the physical market to this recent price fall has also been dramatic. The price drop ignited a buying frenzy in Asia and other parts of the world, leading to a shortage of gold bars and coins in Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo, and helped the metal stage a rebound. The sudden demand surge caught many traders off guard and sent premia for the yellow metal soaring.


The US Mint had to suspend sales of certain coins as buying ramped up. The Mint sold an estimated 210,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in April; almost three and a half times more than the 62,000 ounces it sold in March. Similarly, the Perth Mint in Australia went into overdrive, working around the clock to keep up with an intensity of orders not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.


Premia for gold bars rallied to their highest since late-2008 in Singapore and touched an 18-month peak in Hong Kong after a spate of physical buying led to supply constraints. Premia in Hong Kong touched $4/oz while in the Middle East there have been reports that both Istanbul and Dubai ran short of investment bars, with wholesalers paying a premium of $6-$9/oz for kilobars.


Retail gold sales tripled across China on April 15-16 after the rout, according to the China Gold Association. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), daily physical volumes averaged 12.9 tonnes from the start of 2013 through to the close of business on 10th April. During this time the average premium on the SGE over loco London metal was just over $13/oz, itself a substantial increase from the 2012 average premium of less than $7/oz. While in contrast, during the price drop between 11th and 26th April, physical volume on the SGE averaged 32.6 tonnes daily, with an average premium of $20.4 over the London fix.


Turning to India, investment demand (albeit boosted by the imminence of the Akshaya Tritiya festival) has been significant with premia surging to a peak of $30/oz briefly before settling back to $8/oz in recent days. Imports exceeded 100 tonnes in April and looks set to repeat the performance this month ahead of restrictions proposed by Reserve Bank of India that will likely ban or at least restrict bullion imports on a consignment basis.


While investment bar and coin premia has eased from the frantic highs, they remain at elevated levels in several markets, with robust demand surging at every retracement in price. Mints and refineries continue to struggle to deliver supply chain orders with up to a one-month wait for delivery. For now though, there appears to be a growing disconnect between paper and real gold.

Charts: Bloomberg


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Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:23 | 3557101 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Anyone going to buy less if the price goes down?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:26 | 3557115 Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island
Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island's picture

When BlackRock says buy Gold, I'm in like Flinn.

  Not that I wasn't already; their assesment means there will be a sheeple run. 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:34 | 3557178 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Wall St price is telling the world:  Gold?  Who needs gold when you could have treasuries!  Or your choice of fantastic equities, like our most recent IPO, Facebook, which is down 29% since launch, and has a P/E of 1737.  But don't worry, a high P/E means its GROWING FAST.

Physical markets worldwide are telling Wall St: You are telling me the price of gold is $1435 USD per oz.   Here is $1435 USD, and yet, you will not give me an oz. of gold!

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:36 | 3557439 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Gee, so there's record gold shorts, meanwhile a Mr. Matthew Craft of the AP is busy delivering gold's eulogy.


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:55 | 3557561 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Hope he is getting paid well to sell out his fellow countrymen...

He talks about "withdrawal(s) out of gold funds" and then says its not clear where the "money rushing out of gold" is going.

Hmmm....  Does this guy have two brain cells?  That a gold fund that tracks the price of gold might differ from.... The physical stuff itself?  That if you withdraw your funds from a gold fund, you are not selling your gold, you are asking for physical delivery! 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 20:28 | 3558689 philipat
philipat's picture

This could be a set-up by the BB's who are now net LONG. A reversal would force short covering by the specs and see a very significant trend reversal?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:38 | 3557183 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Anecdotal data point.  The Bearing bought gold in increments after the price plunges, but is now OUT of FIAT$ to buy moar.  

Another anecdotal data point: the widget shows a premium of 11.8% of price for AGEs vs spot price, relatively high, it has been rather high for two weeks now., at the bottom of their home page.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:39 | 3557202 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

DoChen you say you are out of fiat? My guess is that is what they are counting on. Now if they can just crush you until you have to cough up that worthless relic. That would be something.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:43 | 3557216 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture



Do you 'anecdotally' think that I should start doing TAI CHI?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:48 | 3557237 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture



@ fonz

$ "money" will come in when it comes in, no way do they get my gold.  Squeeze that, bitchez.

@ francis_sawyer

F**k yeah, any way you can do Tai Chi is worth it!  Unless it's rayciss...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:57 | 3557276 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Good answer

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:03 | 3557304 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Sadly, looks like a bunch of us might be leaving (getting banned) this once proud site which always encouraged freedom of speech. Amazing to see Fight Club turfed by its current owners. Good luck everyone if this is the end of road for ZH. Its been a great run.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:06 | 3557312 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Das rayciss, ban him!

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:08 | 3557611 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Is a "Libtard" an affiliation or just an affliction?  It's not a race (yet) or religion (maybe?).

Also, does this mean WB7 is gone, too?  You know Debt Brother #1 and the Bernak may take offense to the visuals.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:06 | 3557629 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

it really was the last place of no more down arrows...i guess they put jump the shark back on the pissed....

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 21:24 | 3558849 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

What is racism?

Sometimes it's obvious: beaners all need to die.

Sometimes it's political/social: we should seek to keep massive numbers of hispanics from strolling across our border and overwhelming our welfare system.

Sometimes it's just Fking wack: African American and hispanics test lower than Asians and whites on all tests that can arguably be associated with intelligence.

Tens of Millions (billions?) of people would argue that all three are racist statements, while sane people would be more inclined to find the first a racist statement, and the other two not remotely so. Let's hope the ZH staff is sane.

Question: Does this mean Francis Sawyer has already been booted? He's too blunt to take the delicate approach to Jews, which is: Jews have an average IQ 10 points higher than north Asians, 15 points higher than whites, and 25-30 points higher than Latinos and blacks, so we ought to expect that they will gravitate to and succeeed in the most challenging/rewarding/rapacious/manipulative endeavors: banking, law, medicine, entertainment financing etc.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 20:18 | 3558657 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

my darling dochen

quit, cease, and desist from ever using the useless macho idiot cry of "bitchez"

then and only then will I consider you to be a Tai Chi non-racist.

You are what you do and say.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 20:30 | 3558693 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

End of comments comes now.

This site has descended into a great deal of idiocy. Reminds me of a coach-abused rugby team.

Private school boys with bullying behaviors. Egomanical comments that serve to enlighten noone.

Other words a clique of mal-adjusted behavior.

I ask? What makes you swarm of locusts at ZH (you recent arrivals who cannot resist using "Bitchez" replies and repetive, non-thinking behavior as a declaration that "yes I am here and am part of the gang....when in fact you are non-thinking sheep grazing in a different meadow.)

It is a wonder to me that Tyler and the gang continue to allow this comments crap to go on and on when so polluted by nonsense. Many contributors here are no smarter, no less "tainted", no less ignorant than all they rant against.

"bitchez" as a battle cry. You fools. You deserve to sink.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 21:41 | 3558908 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

No "bitchez", bitchez!!

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:44 | 3557435 nobodyimportant
nobodyimportant's picture

Just goes to show you that ZH has no balls  - is that a slight to eunuchs?  Only an idiot would think his religion, race, etc is inferior to others. 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:41 | 3557470 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> looks like a bunch of us might be leaving

I've been banned from a number of sites, not for racism, but more othen than not for having a differing editorial opinion.  It doesn't take a heck of a lot of brain power to express your thoughts without delving into mindless drivel like racism.  I hardly see where the same wankers ranting their jew banker tripe or anyone of color is a mooch mantra helps anyone.  Elivating the discourse above the animal camp level isn't necessarily a bad thing.  Nobody learns anything from repeated  mindless banality.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 23:14 | 3559126 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

You can have a different opinion, so long as you don't have the wrong opinion about Darwinian selection having effects on Homo Sapiens on something other than skin color, epicanthic folds, melanin levels, prevalence of sickle-cell anemia, and a whole host of other well-documented physical, biological characteristics.

In other words, you must not believe that there are .-'*ANY*'-. psychological, cognitive, emotional, subconscious or neurological differences between races (good or bad!). Despite the obvious biological and physical ones well proven.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:46 | 3557503 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

So that's what everyone's been going bonkers over. Not that I really care either way but it is comically ironic that a blog styled after fight club has such a policy.

Guess the advertisers weren't liking some of the unhinged commentators on here. 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:08 | 3557638 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i guess it never is different this time......what a shame ...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:15 | 3557686 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

My guess is the Wall St Banksters, Zionists and NWO types dont like being called out @ ZH all the time.

Not to mention the gold trolls, who are completely unhinged. 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:34 | 3557755 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

My guess is the Wall St Banksters, Zionists and NWO types dont like being called out @ ZH all the time.

Not to mention the gold trolls, who are completely unhinged. 

Advertisers more specifically exclude porn sites, sites with graphic content / illegal content & sites featuring racism.


It's very easy to exclude such sites and would immediately be felt in zh's revenue. And their ad revenue must be pretty substantial. 


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:00 | 3557882 akak
akak's picture

Funny, James, how BayofPigs mentioned gold trolls in a generic sense, and you immediately came charging in.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:02 | 3557912 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Funny, James, how BayofPigs mentioned gold trolls in a generic sense, and you answered the charge.

I'm guessing BoP mentioned it as reference to our past arguments responding to me writing 'unhinged.' 

But speaking of 'answering the charge,' do you subscribe to my comments or something? Almost every time I write something on zh you show up. 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:33 | 3558040 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

+100.  it is the Zionists.  They told ZH they were going to pull their ad money and fight club just became WWF... 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 19:14 | 3558467 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

If ZH ever needs to be reconstituted "Fight Club Part Deux" or "Project Mayhem Continued"  would be suitable names, IMO.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:24 | 3557734 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Bay


As I mentioned in ZH Chat, my GUESS is that ZH just put it in as BOILERPLATE.  Just to satisfy the Swiss lawyers.  Maybe they will loudly trumpet the occasional troll who is REALLY BAD.  I doubt (but who knows?) that we have much to worry about.


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:26 | 3558016 DosZap
DosZap's picture


 now that ZH has gone mainstream, they must crack down on it.IF they want to continue to remain creditable,as a REAL news source,my take on it anywho.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:51 | 3557864 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

its ok bay o pigz its stil fight club. we are asked now to just put on these cute new zerohege fight mittens now when thrashing each other.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:33 | 3558051 green888
green888's picture

We do not all get along together- bit like a zoo, where they have learnt not to keep the rabbits and snakes in the same pen. As someone famously remarked, all the caucasians, the Africans, the Spanish, the Indians n Chinese, the jews, aborogines,cossacks and inuits want to bash a paki 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 18:56 | 3558395 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

It's all the fault of the TRIANGULAR CHEESEPOPES !

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:32 | 3557155 LynRobison
LynRobison's picture

Wah! If the price of gold goes down, I won't buy any more gold! Wah!

If the price of gold goes down, I won't be able to get as many paper dollars by selling my physical gold! Wah! I want to get more paper dollars! And I thought I could use gold get them! Wah! Now I might not be able to! Wah!

I hate gold! Wah! I will not buy gold ever again! Wah!

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:37 | 3557194 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Exactly.  Owning gold and thinking of your gold in USD terms do not jive.  If you are holding for the end game, then you care about the price of gold in 'New Dollars'.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:05 | 3557624 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

"If you are holding for the end game"

You may want to be holding canned food and ammo?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:33 | 3558049 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Diversification.  It doesn't mean what it used to.  In this case, geography is of paramount importance.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 21:47 | 3558934 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

"Head West, young man (just not too far West)"

The blue plague is spreading, Colorado just fell.  Utah and Idaho look good. Utah's LDS population prepping as part of their religion gives it a slight edge, and is a beautiful state, too. 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 20:00 | 3558595 ATG
ATG's picture

Spam futures...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:50 | 3557249 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

These Inv Banking Researchers are always looking in the wrong place.

SocGen is one of the 11 LBMA market makers for gold spot and forward and one of the 5 Gold Fixing Members, so they know the exact OTC trading patterns from their seat in London and the physical flows in and out of the market.

Then they publish this shit about comex and ETFs... Same for Barclays Suki Cooper and co and the other analysts.

Wake me up when an Inv Banking analyst actually writes about the London OTC gold market and the total vault figures in the London vaults...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 19:57 | 3558591 ATG
ATG's picture

SG owned by R's...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:51 | 3557254 Jim B
Jim B's picture

I am actually bummed, I am hoping premiums will decrease before I buy moar! 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:41 | 3558091 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

We may have 2 serial down-voters on this thread.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:24 | 3557109 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

This is indicative of just how courrpt this financial sytem and these bankers have become!


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:25 | 3557114 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Front-running the next slam down.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:26 | 3557123 css1971
css1971's picture

Shorts; People who like to give you stuff on sale.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:27 | 3557126 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Surprised Gold and Silver are not down further on tapering fear.  I thought they would be slaughtered today.  

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:45 | 3557225 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

People say ending QE would hurt precious metals. 

Well, that depends if you believe the Fed, first and foremost.

Secondly, it requires you to believe that there are buyers out there for US Treasuries (i.e. that stopping the presses is even an option).

Third, you would have to believe that the biggest Wall St (and London) banks can withstand a raise in interest rates, at this point in time. 

Of all the three points, the third one is by far the most outlandish.  The big banks were BIG sellers of interest rate swaps, where variable rates were swapped for fixed rates.  The seller of the fixed rate benefitted when CBs worldwide initiated ZIRP. 

Now imagine you are Barclays, and you have all this debt at variable rates, which are currently as low as they have ever been, what would happen if interest rates were raised?  Anyone want to explain the derivative implications to the uninitiated?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:07 | 3557320 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

You gotta love it, metals have been shit kicked since qe started, and they will be smashed when it ends.. I'll keep averaging down, and finding God so I can head over to the church, light a candle and pray the people behind the curtain get stage 4 cancer for their birthday, and the shorts get their faces blowtoched off (as the metal bugs have).

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:39 | 3558078 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

There will always be buyers for US treasuries as it is a medium of exchange when your talking Big Money.  Now absent QE rates would have to increase because buyers would hold out without competition from the FED.  My guess is the FED is going to hold most of it's 30 year debt for the duration.  The FED's balance sheet won't b e wound down for 30 years, but it will stop expanding much sonner than people think.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 19:58 | 3558594 ATG
ATG's picture

Gold the ultimate medium of exchange, particularly when priced right.

Ask Franz Pick, OSS or CIA...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:28 | 3557130 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

How is Blythe doing with that lawsuit on her trading energy futures Enron-style?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:11 | 3557663 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

The judge is enjoying her soft mouth.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:31 | 3557137 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

This is eerily similar to the December 1974-August 1976 period where the Gold price fell from $184/oz to $103/oz. 

Of course Gold then increased more than 800% over the following 41 months.

A similar decline this time around would take it down to about $1,050/oz. That ought to shake quite a few cowboys off the bull's back.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:40 | 3557205 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I'm so fuckin' there.  If you can't shake off a 40% freefall, stacking ain't for ya bitchez.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:41 | 3557208 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

as long as the way back up does not include an etf.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:06 | 3557314 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

My dollar cost average is still sitting under $300 on my physical.  Gold down to $1,000 again?  Fucking bring it!  I'll become a damn bank and belly up to the Fed's discount window, yee fucking haw!!!  It's a club folks...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:36 | 3557440 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

China and India already going ballistic at the cheap prices...lower?....doubt it, at least not in physical.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:40 | 3557466 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

yeah, and AAPL will fall to 20. Neither ain't happening. My guess is the Univeristy of Texas Retirement Fund will buy another $4 Billion on top of the $4 billion physical they already own if the yellow metal drops more.....

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:11 | 3557943 DosZap
DosZap's picture

A similar decline this time around would take it down to about $1,050/oz. That ought to shake quite a few cowboys off the bull's back.

Personally  think there will be an absolute impossibility to purchase meatal at that price.Everyone IN the know will be buying Phyzz hand over fist.Esp Asians/Indians, and anyone with half a brain.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:32 | 3557149 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

They need to get the gold sentiment as low as possible before they announce their new ponzi scheme to "fight unemployment and deflation".

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:31 | 3557151 mattdubz86
mattdubz86's picture

i was in the camp that JGB vol was gonna send gold lower, will montior.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:32 | 3557156 Devotional
Devotional's picture

Press the green button if you cannot wait for this market (not the gold market btw) to CRASH & BURN?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:36 | 3557442 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

I wish I could. Gold can't be bought from Scotia Bank in Canada. They just don't seem to have any?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:32 | 3557157 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Shortage of metal + increase in Shorts = Gold stands Tall

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:32 | 3557158 youngman
youngman's picture

I thought there would be a remake of the April takedown too today...but not so....I hope physical wins...but you can never underestimate the TRIBE and what they can do with computers...they me it seems they are setting up  a big fall..and more metal will rush to Asia...but it brings us closer to a Comex Default or a LBMA default....this year for sure I bet...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:42 | 3557214 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Since the shorts are all retail, I think they will let price happen.  If non bullion bankers think they will be allowed to default with the bullion bankers, they are sorely mistaken.  Day 1 banker default.  Day 2 price at $2000 with everyone else.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:51 | 3557256 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I think you'll see the bankers net long, then the Comex rules changed to REQUIRE delivery - get it where-ever you can whatever the price.  In either case, I agree, the rules will not be the same for the speculative players as they are for the owners.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:41 | 3557160 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So maybe Bernanke has a keystroke for buying short gold options?

"Ctrl+S+G"?  That would take two hands though, maybe it's "Ctrl+Z", opposite end of the keyboard from "P".

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 18:33 | 3558321 auric1234
auric1234's picture

Using two hands is no problem. Krugman sticks the finger up his ass, so both of Bennie's hands are free and dedicated to his printing efforts.


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:33 | 3557164 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

So is it those damn evil speculator when it's the Morgue squashing the paper price of metals? I demand an investigation and the guilty parties held accountable.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:35 | 3557181 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

the short squeeze on this is going to be nice

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:34 | 3557172 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Gold was $252 in 1999, and silver was 5 bucks.

Ah, the wonderful bubble days... 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:37 | 3557191 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

And with gas at $1.15/gallon, you could fill your tank for less than $20.

Seems like a million years ago.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:42 | 3557210 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Gas is still the same price in the USA, around one silver dime per gallon.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:15 | 3557345 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Wish I could give you +100.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:55 | 3557563 devo
devo's picture

According to coinflation, a dime goes for 1.70. A gallon is 3.75 where I live.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:42 | 3557805 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Expect a correction, in that case.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:38 | 3557197 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

New Normal  101 ...     Supply down = Price Down  ( see- gold and silver )

                                Supply Up  =  Price Up    ( see- oil inventory and gasoline consumption )

   Any questions?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:16 | 3557696 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

makin' my head hurt...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:34 | 3557177 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

It's  getting time for my annual boating trip

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:43 | 3557219 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

I always like to bring my PM stash with me on my boating trips. It makes me feel good and what could go wrong?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:02 | 3557301 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

MUCH safer to bring your gold with you than to leave it in a dark place somewhere at home.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:37 | 3557190 Florida Joe
Florida Joe's picture

These shorts are linked to currency plays, i.e. yen going lower thus dollar higher thus gold lower in dollar terms. IMHO Ignore those pesky stock bugs and buy the metals discount. 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:14 | 3557681 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Good point.  And just like in April, should the US dollar rise against the Yen and COMEX gold price falls, watch the premiums for physical start to rise again and take out the reduction in COMEX price.  Its almost as if d(Physical Gold Premium)/d(COMEX Gold Price) < 0, - or that d(Physical Gold Premium) = d(COMEX Gold Price).  In my neighborhood, spot could fall to $1200, and I'd still have to pay $1530/oz with 2 month wait for delivery.  Bring on the shorts!  It will help make COMEX become increasingly less relevant. 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:45 | 3557221 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Those who believe that the QE will end in American better check their Easter Baskets from April to see what the Easter Bunny left them!  In short, this is a premature setting for the gansgters to slam Gold on yet another lie about money printing.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 14:49 | 3557243 Investor-1
Investor-1's picture

The time is coming to take on some positions in the yellow metal. The bottom must be close. Mining stocks and leveraged positions are my thing to trade gold with.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:01 | 3557297 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Hitler is more popular than PM Miners right now. So, I'm with you, buying Miners. And no, I'm not worried about Mines being nationalized in Canada.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:37 | 3557445 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

No physical to be bought right now in Canada.  Go figure?

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 20:58 | 3558772 Northern Lights
Northern Lights's picture

Where you been doin your bullion shopping?????

I live and work in downtown Toronto.  My bullion dealers got lots of gold maples, silver leafs, Krugerrands, AGE, Phillharmonics, etc etc.

You one of those guys who's getting screwed on premiums by going to places like Scotia Bank and the other banks selling the mints stuff?????


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 18:28 | 3558307 auric1234
auric1234's picture

Any Canadian companies in particular you'd recommend? I'm looking at CGR, it seems like a decent one.


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 08:51 | 3559837 auric1234
auric1234's picture

So this is how to make a risk-free bet. You make up an idea on something, then charge for advice... if it works, you keep the profits. If it doesn't work, simply refund. Sounds like an excellent idea to obtain risk-free profit.

Except I don't fall for this kind of bullshit.


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:07 | 3557323 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Going long paper is actually an incredibly stupid idea.  Thanks for the personal website pimping though.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:02 | 3557302 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I just paid $2 over spot for a 100 oz RCM silver bar so suck it. Times are tough all over for bullion buyers but what are you going to do? Save your clownbucks in a risky bank and hope spot goes even lower and premiums go back to normal? Good one. I'll pay a little extra thanks.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:22 | 3557370 The Thunder Child
The Thunder Child's picture

Those RCM bars make excellent boat anchors! Just make sure to use something good and strong for the line like dental floss.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:06 | 3557303 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

gold may be money but it's obviously not your money. the Rothschild plutocrats control gold and everything else of value "en gross" on the face of this earth. imagine investing in a substance which you can possess and supposedly store securely and hidden away only to find that some powerful,unknown, and invisible (to you) hand can steal at will while you are sleeping, working or even out buying more. what is really "devaluing" here? it certainly not just the FRNs in your bank acounts or wallets. only the old hands who bought long ago are still ahead of the game and might possibly remain so. but the bag of tricks of TPTB are far from empty no matter what discredited gold writer and guru you are personally following. think about taxing, auditing, and monitoring gold purchases in real time leading all the way to outright confiscation. this is an incredibly small and thus transparent market and if you think they don't have any idea who owns what, you're about 50 years behind the times.

the corelation with the burgeoning efforts at gun control starting with the interdiction of ammunition supplies through government purchases is especailly striking. tried to get a hold of some .223 or .45 ACP lately? the same tactic applies to the precious metals which along with gun ownership is the greatest threat to the implementation of the golbalist agenda in the US. Au and Ag are the monies and the possession of the elites and they are not going to let you forget it despite the crusades for true price discovery carried on for decades by the GATA and the gold bugs. the same goes for the firepower necessary to control the streets. they want it all as their sole possession, and it's going to take all the stealth, cunning and proactive positioning you can musterfor you to hold on to your own. good luck friends.


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:13 | 3557332 semperfi
semperfi's picture

they can't control it if they don't hold it - and its all moving to vaults in Russia & China - good luck with that Rothschild

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:30 | 3557404 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

the transference of industry, intellectual property and now, the mother lode of world wealth in gold to China began decades ago when Richard Nixon visited the Middle Kingdom and continued apace under GHW Bush when he was ambassador to China. Gold has a way of migrating to centers o feconomic power as a safe haven. Look at the tranference of tons and tons of gold during WWII from the continent and the British Isles to the US ahead of the Nazi invasion. Gold may change location but it rarely changes hands. 

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 19:45 | 3558560 ATG
ATG's picture

The R's own China and Russia, hello...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:06 | 3557313 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Pfff, holding physical gold & silver is like holding an erection for several months.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:08 | 3557322 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not quite, viagra can make an erection appear from thin air, creating paper or digits from thin air cannot make physical gold appear.  Pfft indeed.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:17 | 3557354 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

When it hits 55k, i will be arrested for owning a pressure cooker.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:06 | 3557318 Cobra
Cobra's picture

They're 'short' way more than 14 million ounces at the ol' casino...
Stupid games. Get it into your hands while it's still affordable.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:10 | 3557327 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

Increase in gold shorts to force paper prices down again before Q4

Physical PM's will see greater disconnect in pricing w/ increased backlogs in ordering. Example: US MINT Silver Eagle 2 Coin Set

First day to order May 9 Delivery Estimate: June 17, 2013

May 13 Ordering Delivery Estimate: Sept 30, 2013

These comments also cover my sentiments pretty well

Still no guesses on the famous celebrity look-a-like


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:13 | 3557337 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

At some point, buyers of physical have no more money to buy physical.  That point is coming soon.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:23 | 3557383 The Thunder Child
The Thunder Child's picture

Derp... I guess you don't recieve a regular paycheck

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:40 | 3557464 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

People haven't borrowed money to buy, haven't sold other assets to buy more, haven't sold the house to buy, etc.  So...  The buying will continue.  Because those who are buying gold now are people now saving their wealth in gold.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:21 | 3557719 silvermail
silvermail's picture

"At some point, buyers of physical have no more money to buy physical."


You're kidding? China's dollar reserves (only one China) allow to buy all the gold in the world twice.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:23 | 3558005 DosZap
DosZap's picture

At some point, buyers of physical have no more money to buy physical. That point is coming soon.


Ah, but look how much they will have stacked.The only way you run out of coins is no job.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 19:29 | 3558510 oddjob
oddjob's picture

You wish. There is an endless supply of paper out there.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 19:43 | 3558547 ATG
ATG's picture

$8 trillion dollars of global gold versus a quadrillion dollars of derivatives, less than 1%?

Extremely doubtful...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:18 | 3557361 Mineral-Invest
Mineral-Invest's picture

Stupid Asians! Creating this paperVSphysical 2 dimensional shit! Wait until all marginal producers shut down operations due to low spot price. Where's the physical premium then? Stupid Asians... :(

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 15:31 | 3557410 Buzzworthy
Buzzworthy's picture

What you need to ask yourself is what these shorts know that you dont.  They are betting the paper price of gold will fall.  That is the correct bet because as the paper market burns the price will continue to decline and yet you will find no physical gold available for purchase anywhere.  I expect as well that before the coming revaluation gold never hits north $1500 in paper terms again.  The bull market is indeed over, but if you understand what that means you will be more bullish than ever.  Those in power are using irony against the stupid paper longs who think that the price discovery mechanism as it currently exists will someday reflect gold's true value.  It doesn't now and will not in the future.  

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 19:36 | 3558531 ATG
ATG's picture

Here's a way around that.

Buying a company that gets silver bulluion at $4 and gold bullion at $400 and sells it well:

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 16:31 | 3589314 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Here's a way around that.

Buying a company that gets silver bulluion at $4 and gold bullion at $400 and sells it well:


And WHO is their source, since both those prices are FAR below market costs to mine it?.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:02 | 3557467 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Somebody short is going to come up "short."


The volume of increase over such a very short time period tells me this isn't your grandmother's retail broker advising her to short gold. This appears to be a coordinated move to stampede the herd into getting out of gold.


We all know the gold on paper isn't really there. It is far less criminal to pay people for their paper now before they do something like start demanding the physical.


What makes this a real thriller is seeing that their shorting is doing exactly the inverse of what they expected - as testified by their going short. Gold prices aren't falling; they are rising.


That's a major problem if you are short. And as I wrote when I started this post, that means someone short is going to come up short when prices don't fall as expected. I can only think that because this is a coordinated move, they think they will repeat the April Waterfall.


Unfortunately, I think they forgot that the Indians and Chinese - and much of the rest of the non-western world's wealthy - don't view gold as the Westerners see it. This is an incredible fire sale in their eyes. Someone’s doing the Eastern Hemisphere's Cramer "BUY - BUY - BUY" right now.


So let's see how this goes - in a way it might really be a mile marker when the East really lets the West know its time on the money throne is over. Let enough rich Westerners eat poop with their short positions, combined with the physical finally shown to be long gone and to who knows where, and you will see some serious problems.


Remember, you can burn the Muppets all day long, but you can’t burn the Uber-Wealthy because they will kill you. When the Uber-Wealthy get burned on gold . . . it’s going to be a very scary life - what little will be left of it - for whomever gets the blame for it.


Never forget that the best thing to ever happen to Madoff was to get locked up in a Federal prison where the Uber-Wealthy he burned can't get to him . . . yet.


This really is interesting - ZH is like the preview trailer of a movie . . .



Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:54 | 3557872 russwinter
russwinter's picture

More Clues About What Happened in the April Gold Swoon:


Mon, 05/13/2013 - 16:54 | 3557873 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

open interest is high and there's an equal # long positions to match the # of short positions. The real question is WHO is behind the short positions and WHO is behind the long positions.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:10 | 3557939 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Being short gold futures or holding puts can also be interpreted to be a veiled play against equities.  With the amount of leverage in equities, it won't take much downward movement for folks to liquidate to cover margins - and the easy thing to liquidate is Au.

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 17:38 | 3558077 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Quietly, gold and silver are completing the setup for a primary bull market. If both metals break above the 04/29 and 04/30 highs, a primary bull market will be signaled as explained here:

Conversely, if the 04/15 lows are violated, then get your life preservers...

Mon, 05/13/2013 - 21:31 | 3558866 honestann
honestann's picture

The ONLY reasons to short gold are:


#1:  To manipulate the price of gold lower to pretend the dollar isn't a piece of garbage, knowing your fraudulant organization benefits more from being able to create dollars out of thin air than you lose on gold manipulation.

#2:  Because the predators-that-be and predator-class have decided to kill gold by having the federal reserve raise the interest rate significantly, substantially or dramatically.


The fact is #2 is quite a dramatic move, because it greatly increases borrowing costs for the federal government.  This is no problem for large corporations for at least several years, as they've borrowed simply astronomical quantities of money while the interest rate hass been 0%.  Every foolish individual willing to borrow money already has a home or three, so much home buying is now cash [from abroad], which will not be harmed by higher interest rates.  In fact, higher interest rates will crash housing prices, making cash purchases even more attractive over the next couple years.

So, if the predators-that-be hate gold enough, they could be setting up gold for the most massive takedown in history.  All things considered, this seems rather unlikely, but this is a possibility.  To protect themselves, anyone holding most or all assets in gold might want to buy some extremely cheap, far out of the money put options on GLD or gold miners (or something... I'm no expert at this sort of hedging).

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