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Guest Post: A Brief History Of Cycles And Time, Part 2

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Part 2 of the guest essay by Eric A.: "Because it's time."

I am honored to publish a deeply insightful two-part essay by longtime contributor Eric A. on long-term cycles, and how they shape our spectrum of responses in periods of crisis and transformation. This essay has profound implications for our individual choices in the years ahead, and I believe it helps explain my own political/ financial philosophy outlined in my books:
Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It
Resistance, Revolution, Liberation: A Model for Positive Change
An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times
Survival+: Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation

Here is Part 2 of Eric's essay.

Let me ask you something: Do you really think your ancestors didn’t see the Depression coming in 1921 or in 1929? Of course they did. The Balloon Option-ARM mortgage had just been invented, creating a housing boom larger and even more groundless as our own, immortalized by the Marx Brothers in The Cocoanuts. They warned the world then just as we do now, and no one listened then, just as they don’t now. Why? It wasn’t time.

Likewise, do you think Hoover and Roosevelt didn’t do everything they could, whether legal or illegal to stop the endless economic decline after 1929? Of course they did. Roosevelt confiscated the entire money supply, packed the Supreme Court, and took control of the entire US economy to no avail. Henry Morgenthau, Roosevelt’s Treasury Secretary, admitted,

"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work... We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started. And an enormous debt to boot."

And the media failing to report? I’ll show you just three graphics:

1. "We will not have any more crashes in our time." - John Maynard Keynes in 1927 (1)

2. "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool’s paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future." - E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity." - Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928 (2)

3. "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding." - Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928 (3)

4. "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash." - Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929 (4)

5. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business." - Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline." - Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." - Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929 (5)

6. "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years." - R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted." - E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic — which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom." - R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929 (6)

7. "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services... America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin." - Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street.” - The Times of London, November 2, 1929

"The Wall Street crash doesn’t mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before." - Business Week, November 2, 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929 (7)

8. "...a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."- HES, November 10, 1929

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most." - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect." - Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed." - Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929 (8)

9. "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." - Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence." - Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year." - U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 1929 (9)

10. “For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright.” - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930 (10)

11. "...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930 (11)

12. "There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." - Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930 (12)

13. "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern... American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." - Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

"...the outlook continues favorable..." - HES Mar 29, 1930 (13)

14. "...the outlook is favorable..." - HES Apr 19, 1930 (14)

15. "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst — and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." - Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

" May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..." - HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over." - Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930 (15)

16. "...irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." - HES June 28, 1930 (16)

17. "...the present depression has about spent its force..." - HES, Aug 30, 1930 (17)

18. "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." - HES Nov 15, 1930 (18)

19. “Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible.” - HES Oct 31, 1931 (19)

20. "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933 (20)

Source: Colin J. Seymour, June 2001

                Man of the Year, 1938                                     Man of the Year, 1939

Poor enough reporting for ya? I’m sure you’d find the same reporting in the Great Depressions of 1837 and 1870, while many of you personally remember the W.I.N. buttons and pro-American quotes in the Depression of 1968-1979.

History never changes. Or, at least it changes very slowly indeed.

So here we are, like those before us, warning of our own Great Depression, of our own World War, or of even larger cycles like the fall of the English, Spanish, or Roman empires. And so far as we can tell, few listen and nothing changes. Why?

Because it isn’t time.

You think they didn’t see the rise of Fascism and WWII in the 30’s? What was the Lincoln Brigade about? You think the people of 1930 didn’t also inform each other, stall and delay the day of reckoning, and struggle to prepare? Of course they did. Just as much as we ourselves and our present government have. The delay due to their ability and willingness to intervene is already factored into the cycle.

So why didn’t war break out in 1932, 1936, or for the U.S., in 1940? It wasn’t as if people didn’t see it coming, just as we see our own war and challenges now.

Because it wasn’t time. What I mean by that is, no matter how far seeing, History, as Hari Seldon would say, is made up of the aggregate, not the individual. No individual-- not even Churchill chafing under Chamberlain in 1938—could change it.

It only happens slowly, when one by one the great mass of the population have changed their minds and their behavior. Only then can history unfold. You, me, even Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, or George Soros cannot push the great Wheel of History around because it is made of all 6 Billion of us, the whole planet, the whole market, and the sum of human understanding.

To me, this the cardinal sin of the blogosphere, or indeed of the times: that we know what is best for everyone, as writers, pundits, politicians. That we need to make the other guy "wake up." We need to make them see as we do, act as ourselves, obey our will. Isn’t this the very defect we attribute to our enemies? That they’re always galumping around telling everybody what to do and how to live?

"They"—your family, your neighbors, your country--need to wake up? Let me ask you: "How did YOU wake up?" I can answer that without knowing you: a little at first, then all at once, in your own time. Neither is the journey for any of our "waking up" complete.

Telling people what is going on is one thing, it’s free speech, expressing our opinions on where we are and how the world works. Forcing others to believe something, become something, act in a way we believe they should is the first step to violence. If you believe in and value Liberty and the free exchange of ideas as I do, don’t do it. Changing the other guy is not your job.

Given that we can’t change history, and it’s reprehensible to force yourself on others, one might ask what good is it to talk about it? Screw the other guy if he won’t learn. Ride the stock market up for every dollar. "Eat, Drink, and be Merry, for tomorrow we die." To which I would respond as Dorothy Parker, "But alas, we never do." We may not be able to change the world or the course of history, but we can prepare on our own, individual level. And that’s the key, the individual level.

Markets, governments, wars, they are aggregations that will only change on schedule after some series of remarkable events forces them to respond and adjust.

This is part of Charles Hugh Smith’s discussions of fiefdoms, feedback, and the status quo: by definition the status quo can’t change, because if it could it wouldn’t be a status quo mired in internecine wrangling; it would be smoothly evolving into a new stable system. The system as we know it can’t change, but YOU can.

And as this is the only effort that’s going to effect any change in your life vs. the tide of history, it’s also the only one you have control over and the only one that’s going to do you any good. Dmitry Orlov has mentioned this many times regarding the collapse of governments and empires, in his case, the Soviet Union.

Did the U.S.S.R. disappear overnight? No. It took time, the exact amount of time for people to recognize, test, explore, and adjust their behavior. For some slower, and others more quickly. That is to say it took years, each piece unfolding one person at a time, one personal realization and event at a time in their own order. Once the nation collapsed, did it suddenly reform into the functional and rising state Russia enjoys now?

No. Again, it took time, decades of unfolding from 1991 until 2013, another whole generation, one "turning." Not until those who carried the template of the old ways passed away and new, younger people with new thinking replaced them. Not one of them could have stopped it or hurried it along although many tried, no different than any other time in history. As for the other guy, it’s always been clear that we’re all in this together. If your neighbors have a problem, then you have a problem whether down the street or in the world. This is why we all help each other best we can according to our abilities, in our own time.

What we as bloggers and far-seers have been trying to do is to change the aggregate, which cannot be done. The aggregate WILL change, but it can only change in its own schedule. We can continue to tell the truth, but after decades of status quo, we should not expect our words to change the world, our nation, or to some extent even our community. The only thing we can realistically change is ourselves with our own actions, and that is where all real change comes from, one person: one action at a time. 6 billion tiny events, tiny tipping points, changing minds who realize themselves one by one.

So what revolutionary act can you make today? If you read, or similar sites, you already know the direction of history and what may be needed by you and the nation in the years ahead. What can you do to fill those gaps and prepare in your own life? Because the Wheels of History, although grinding exceeding slow, do get there in the end, made up of the decisions of billions of human actors. You may not be able to change your nation or the desperate situation we find ourselves in, but each of you can change yourself. You can make your own lifeboat in the midst of our own national challenge or "collapse." Only through that individual preparation could we find a million safety nets which prevent collapse.

And if that is all that’s asked of you, it’s good, for that’s all that’s possible.

Start today. It’s time.

by Eric A.


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Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

OT: Holy crap Batman!!  Look at AAPL!

Tylers please feel free to remove this if not to your liking here.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:43 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

While you're looking check this out...

Turns out Obama is now supporting the Fine Young Cannibals in Syria...

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:44 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

not sure that can be franchised

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

He should send Sheriff Joe Biden and his double barrel to round up that criminal and "fix" the problem...

I'd pay to see that video.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

Where's the market call? Or is this intellectual auto-eroticism?

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment ghandi
ghandi's picture

Liars never die, they just go to Wall Street to regroup.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment venturen
venturen's picture

where is the Obama Time Cover/Nobel prize?

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:44 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The Bernank... MAN OF THE YEAR...


"Subprime is contained"

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:41 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

BTFD. Another 1000 points on the DOW for the political cover-ups. Mandatory. 

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Zen Bernanke
Zen Bernanke's picture

I'll tell you right now, as sure as I sit here typing this, the aggregate opinion of the stock markets will change exactly when the market has perceived the Fed has signaled a policy change and it won't take months or years.   it will take but a milli-second.  

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:22 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

thankfully the fed will not/cannot make such a signal... 

PS, it won't be the fed who determines when the party stops...  it will be math and fundamental resource constraints.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

All it takes to change the markets is one well placed tweet.

But only for a minute.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:43 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

We are, all of us, modern day cassandras.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:46 | Link to Comment asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

Groucho in The Cocoanuts comments on the Florida land boom and crash: "...And you can even get stucco! Boy, can you ever get stuck-o..."

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:49 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

'Homeschooling' 101:


4. "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash." - Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929 (4)

5. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

10. “For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright.” - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930 (10)


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:01 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

11. what i need is a delicious spanking- mrs. prains, before marriage 1990


we never learn


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:58 | Link to Comment asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

Bernanke is his greatest fanboi.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

One thing is different today: the magnitude of central bank meddling (and not just the Fed).

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:19 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

keep reminding yourself that it's the "buildings" of those central banks that you mention which are responsible for the meddling...


It has nothing to do with the shareholders of the institutions themselves...

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Bryan
Bryan's picture

Very good subject matter.  I agree 100%.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 14:57 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Popocatépetl....could be a black swan event for all of us in North America...if that baby lets loose, we will no longer be discussing the IRS' criminal will be the perfect cover for them.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:38 | Link to Comment andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Dr. Who talked about this volcano in one of the old time episodes.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Certainly more relevant than the original comment.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:41 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

.....Popocatépetl is showing signs right now of a potential eruption...

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:03 | Link to Comment doggis
doggis's picture

of course ONE person can change the world!! OF COURSE THIS CAN HAPPEN! Mahatma lead the way!

like ripples in an ocean, you can move people. you can affect all of history with one moment!  try emitting a silent but deathly sulfuric fart in an elevator. 


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:07 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture



consider it done

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:45 | Link to Comment InTheLandOfTheBlind
InTheLandOfTheBlind's picture

ghandi is dead and india has a rape problem

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

-1000 for doggis


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:10 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

JCP is up 20% in just over a week. The CEO apologized two weeks ago and ran a commercial saying "We're sorry". Now they are running a commercial saying "Thanks for coming back".

So really, the company completely turned around in two weeks justifying a 20% rise in the stock? Customers came back that fast to buy the exact same products at the exact same prices they didn't buy before.


I'm beginning to think Detroit Public School students are more qualified for work than guys in suits sitting in brokerage houses.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     This shit is complete insanity!  Nikkei CFDs trading over 15K.

   Japan NI225   [ 15044.00]    14758.42    15086.00    14756.00    285.58    1.94%    19:09:26  


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:19 | Link to Comment SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Tell me something I do not know.


Just can not wait to see the sheeple loose... weight.

Joyous it will be to walk amongst the thin again, in US,  like all foreign countries I have.

Got food?


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:20 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

You can't tell people things. They have to make their own mistakes, experience the pain for themselves.

I've given up trying to help others understand what's going on, I just get on with it now.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 15:45 | Link to Comment debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Thanks Eric A. Citizen 39100230 learned something today.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

wow what a coincidence!! im Citizen 39100231!!!!...............

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Hi-larious quotes.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

The Wheel of History weaves as the Wheel of History wills.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:32 | Link to Comment groundedkiwi
groundedkiwi's picture

I read a book about 20 odd years ago on the stock crash and depression of the 30s. Churchill was actually watching the stock exchange crash as a visitor. He had also just finished a guided tour of the Philidelpia industrial area. Things are planned well in advance. TPTB at the time were probably planning in advance the manufacturing to be done in Phildelpia for WW2.
Churchill had just visited Canada prior to his American tour and had avstosh on the border over all the alcohol he had in his luggage during Prohibition.
NB. Churchill was not in office at that time.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:46 | Link to Comment Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

I have lowered my risk exposure dramatically but I'm lucky I didn't listen to all the doom and gloomers until lately. They've all been wrong on timing. Everyone knows (which means they are probably mistaken) things are headed for a bad end, but successful investing requires knowing when, and most everyone has displayed little or no ability in the timing area for years now.

I started pulling in my real estate horns in 2007, that worked out well but was easy to time after 30 years in the business. I started pulling in my stock market horns about 3 years ago, too early. No one's perfect, but the secret is to avoid heavy losses while building wealth.

Fortunately my overall decent timing means I don't need to take risks now, the govt and FED takes them for me. I simply have to react to what they are doing.

Reacting is so much easier than forecasting. I much prefer it. It is the reward for sticking with a plan while growing old.

The funny thing about the expectations of a crash by all the brainiacs is they don't even recognize that its happening now. We are about 5 years into it with 10-12 years to go. It doesn't feel like a total crash because of the FED's actions of slowly stealing wealth in a way that is invisible to most Americans. At least ZH'ers can take credit for understanding that part.

Most people still cling to the mistaken idea that the "proper" policies could "turn things around" which is wrong. What's happening cannot be affected much by policy, it must run its course. 

So, now that I have all preparations in place for a total collapse, I will proceed as if it's not going to happen, except for sticking with low-risk investing since I can simply conserve now. 

Knowing a crash is coming is rather useless unless you know when it's coming. There is always a crash coming. There is always a curve in the road ahead, but if you curve early or late, YOU get the bad end.

I wonder how many have taken into account the possibility that the current crash is about as bad as things are going to get, and it's just going to be a long slow pull out. The wise investor is prepared for all outcomes, including the ones considered impossible.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 17:01 | Link to Comment alfbell
alfbell's picture



Meremortal: I like your style and your logic.

I'm an amatuer to economics and investing. Working on finding the correct datums and strategies for protecting the wealth that I have an continuing to prosper despite the political and banker class domestically and globally. You wrote... "So, now that I have all preparations in place for a total collapse..." Pray, do tell... what sort of preparations are these? They might be enlightening and helpful to me. Thanks in advance.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

while I find your post to be sensible and well-argued, I believe you're not leaving much room for chaos.

which is incoming, unpredictable but definite.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 19:35 | Link to Comment hmmtellmemore
hmmtellmemore's picture

The majority of ZH is doom and gloom Schadenfreude.  A stock price drops 5% and "ZOMG LULZ that company/market/nation is doomed".  It then goes up 5% a week later and *crickets*.  Just like you, I'm interested in making money.  The US is a very productive nation, full of amazing, intelligent, caring people.  Our government is over it's head in debt, but that doesn't change the fact that this nation is blessed with amazing human and natural resources.   Not to mention that we care much more about liberty than perhaps any nation on Earth, and that means a great deal.

Yes, there will be some sort of crash/default.  I agree with you though, after a slight paradigm shift just when the attitude is one of hopelessness, it will be the perfect time to buy into such an amazing nation.  Like you say, don't try to predict it, just be ready to cash in/out when the time comes.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 20:52 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture


Not to mention that we care much more about liberty than perhaps any nation on Earth, and that means a great deal.

the mind, boggles.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment alfbell
alfbell's picture



Right. History either repeats or rhymes. Been that way for the centuries and will continue that way forever. The only thing that would change that would be a complete paradigm shift for humanity of a mental or spiritual nature. But it would have to be an aggregate phenomenon, the majority of humanity would have to have it in order to move into a higher level of awareness and responsibility and ethics. If some sort of an aggregate epiphany never occurs, we are doomed to have history continue to repeat itself. Like Groundhog Day (just with different fashion and hair styles as we move through time).

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

But, what if these dweebs printed so much confetti that we are really at 1981 on this chart,,, Or even 1946?

And what if they know it and can see the tidal wave coming, therefore are talking tightening?

And no, I'm not in stocks. Just food for thought here because Central Banks trash currencies...ALWAYS!

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment W T F II
W T F II's picture

"Man Of The Year"---2013...?


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 18:21 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

I'm not sure 2013 is a man

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

2013 belongs to Cthulhu.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Read both articles before commenting that I learned nothing useful. There are natural cycles, and there are market cycles, yes there will be some interaction/feedback at some level between these. But as you say, you can't describe a cause or a mechanism or a sound prediction, nor even a clear-cut historical narrative (in my view). All this seems to be is an elaborate theory/excuse for why what you thought was going to happen sooner, hasn't. Just not a fan of hocus-pocus anyway.


Tue, 05/14/2013 - 19:20 | Link to Comment groundedkiwi
groundedkiwi's picture

Time man of the year 2008 Bakak Obama
Time man of the year 2009 Bernanke
Just sayin

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 19:52 | Link to Comment kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Empires, Technology and Currency, & You

For the last 50 years the majority has been dismantling the private family, transferring its wealth to the public coffer in exchange for pension promises in a ponzi scheme, to artificially juice income and control development, NPV, which is naturally collapsing with demographic deceleration. And in the latest artificial feast and famine business cycle, intelligent labor was cut out again, with the expectation of young replacements, which never materialized.

The story of the empire is the story of scale economics, gravity, accelerating demographic replication as the means to borrow income from the future and thereby control out years. Deficits and debt, employing currency to enable misdirection, to resist adaptation, enslaving future generations to the past in prisoners dilemma, is no accident.

The majority’s financial leverage and emotional extortion, driving digital technology, is a double-edged sword, which defines wealth as the control of other people’s debt formation to the majority’s own purpose. Its top-down, family law banking mechanism maximizes return on zero risk, hiding the losses off sheet, ignoring them until it can’t, and what better place than pension promises. Net, the majority borrows to spend, to preserve non-performing assets, its own perspective.

The majority pays itself in convoluted make-work credit, to be ignorant. Debt is an empire asset the majority calls money, and Bernanke is paid to be its scapegoat. To extend and pretend, to delay and deny, he has simply been bringing the entire global middle class up to the cliff, with monetary shock and awe, austerity and expansion. They deserve each other.

Empires are prisons within prisons, of false assumptions, enforced by privilege and punishment, layered upon layer with leverage, with drugs piped in as necessary. The vast majority is normalized shortly after birth, either by parental example or peer pressure in school. And the majority of the remaining minority rebels, assuming the exit is physical or mental, becoming self-destructive.

You design, build, implement and enforce technology, whether you know it or not. Technology itself is neither good nor evil. It may just as easily be employed to free the prisoners.

If you balance the observer’s prism, which is relative, all the doors open, the inmates ignore the operation, and the scapegoat takes credit for the successful reorganization. Basically, you create space to interrupt the empire’s interrupts, catalyzing resistance reversion, rebooting the linear field and incrementing the quantum field, in a chain reaction, developed in advance for the occasion.

If you rebel against the prison, instead of creating space, you make the inmates of denial acutely aware of their prison, resulting in depression for all. Resistance is futile. Grow your capacity.

The empire is fully contained and imploding. The bang will happen when it happens, and there is no point in watching other people watch other people die off. At equilibrium, you are replacing Family Civil Law enforcers with your children, to alter course.

Space travel is the same problem, perspective. You are trapped on earth; how do you get out? The answer is not to plead for funding from the zoo keepers. You are the bank, unless you choose to avoid responsibility, and then you get what you get, a gossip sh-show, a crappy McMeal, and Starbucks p-water, and you’ll like it.

As demand for oil has fallen, the price for oil has risen; why? When may you expect reversion? The leading outliers adjust gravity implicitly. The old-timers are not going anywhere, the technicians below them cannot fix anything, the economy remains in stall, and the corporations are starting to advertize for travelers.

Why on earth would you fund the majority’s pensions with real wealth? The majority pays itself to be selfish, to hide the truth until it can’t. It’s not rocket science.

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 21:06 | Link to Comment broken87
broken87's picture

Bay of Pigs I watched the Vid, and now I am watching Joe Rogan on what is Reality...some very valid points. Thank you sir, didn't know this existed

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