• Monetary Metals
    05/02/2016 - 01:28
    The price of gold shot up this week, and silver moved proportionally. Headlines are screaming for gold to hit $10,000 or $50,000. Does this alleged new bull market have legs?

Deja Deja Deja Vu - Final Hour Ramp Closes Stocks At All Time Highs

Tyler Durden's picture


Despite (or in fact 'due to' in this alice-through-the-looking-glass market) terrible data overnight in Europe and weak data this morning in the US, equities went from strength to strength thanks to a pre-European POMO vertical liftathon that pulled equities 1% higher on nothing (nothing at all). This faded but was helped into the close by a JPY-driven spurt to hold above 1650 in the S&P 500 at another all-time high (intraday) and close. Behind the scenes it was a mess though. Treasuries rallied (after recoupling with stocks) and did not play in the final hour frolicking. VIX ended the day higher (and notably divergent). High-yield credit closed weaker and credit markets are significantly divergent now as releveraging begins to bite. The USD pushed on to new highs intraday (highest since July 2010) which we are sure will help earnings. While the market has done its best to pressure the oil markets lower, today saw WTI gush higher back over $94 once again. The big story is in gold and silver which were jerked lower at around the US open (ending the day down 3.8% and 5.6% respectively on the week). As a reminder for those calling for the death of gold - AAPL is down over 8% in the last 3 days (the death of AAPL?).

The trend is your friend (even if it is not a trend but a correction because you buy it until it becomes the trend again....)


The shorts were squeezed out from the open to the European close and then gathered some steam back into the close...


Credit remains entirely unimpressed...


and VIX remains obstinate..


Treasuries and stocks recoupled early on after stocks lagging the break but the last hour saw bonds ignore stocks exuberance...


Gold and Silver were slammed at the US open, bounced, then drifted to close at their lows... WTI ripped back...


Cross asset class correlations are as broken as we can remember - it seems no matter what the money flow hits stocks and the rest of risk just plays catch up for now... (until of course it doesn't)...


Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context


Bonus Chart: The Death of AAPL... (strangely correlated price action too...)


and from the all-time highs...


and the updated MSFT vs AAPL mania chart...

Your rating: None

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Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:29 | 3566318 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

When is the next Fed event that bulls have to worry about?

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:35 | 3566348 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Loving it. In your face bull market. We will keep ramping up until you guys in mainstreet "invest" and lose everything.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:39 | 3566363 flacon
flacon's picture

Short GOOG. 

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:04 | 3566453 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

This "market" is so far beyond F.U., there are no words in the English language to describe the situation -- except one....

BULLISH </sarc>

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:16 | 3566485 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Given the trends towards automatic cars & weak AI, not a good move, in my simplistic reading of it.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:03 | 3566449 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

TSLA is coming out with a new color, "Tulip Mania".

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:36 | 3566351 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Don't worry, it's already priced in.  ;)

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:49 | 3566405 madcuban
madcuban's picture

Deja 4eva

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:54 | 3566605 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Seems like never. Buy the DOW and it's up 50 to 100 points daily. Place your bets and almost always come out a winner on the long.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:36 | 3566353 kito
kito's picture


seems the comex price will continue downward............so at what point does the full paper/physical disconnect occur?? 1100? 1000?.................and if it continues to drop?? why would tptb allow for it?? why wouldnt they stabilze the price to avoid a mass rush for delivery at low low prices??? or are they still trying to scare the public out of purchase????

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:46 | 3566390 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

It continues until the last ounce is gone from the fraud ridden COMEX and the bullion bank ponzis GLD/SLV. (and I've been saying that for 3 long years here @ ZH).

What else would you expect from braindead American politicians and corrupted regulators who refuse to face the ugly truth?

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:50 | 3566410 kito
kito's picture

@bay....but it doesnt follow logic (what does anymore?) that they would continue to hammer the price downward IF there was an actual emergent situation going on with delivery...............

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:13 | 3566474 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

Because they are going to pull the trigger again, soon, and the only hope they have of hiding the damaging effect is to suppress the gold price by one last minute gambit to try and correlate dropping gold prices with "positive" economic data and ongoing (escalating) QE in the minds of market participants?

Dunno.  But the name of the game is to raise "confidence," i.e. control the perceptions of the sheeple.  After this drop, there were articles that blatantly said that the drop in gold price is a good thing because it lets us know that those in charge know what they are doing and that gold bugs are "jerks."  


Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:15 | 3566481 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kito the answer to that as I understand it, is, they drive the price down as low as possible so that when they eventually have to settle in cash, they don't have to pay much out.

Here is why I own gold fwiw. I have evolved into this mindset as it has dropped, so maybe I am just deluded at this point.

I don't think a comex etc. default is imminent. I think they will manage this "economic collapse". However it plays out, I think it will take up most of, if not all of my lifetime. I will be lucky if I can work right up to the point where I drop dead. I may be a bit overly positive thinking that is possible, but the alternative is worse so I choose not to consider it. The retirement flomax commercial ain't happening for me.

I do think, that at some point, a massive revaluation will happen to the dollar, whether it is gradual or all at once, I don't know. Whether it is tomorrow or 50 years from now I give up trying to figure that out. But by giving up contemplating that I also give up caring about the "price" of gold. In a way it has freed me up. I still try to be prudent, but I don't go crazy worrying about the same things I used to. I figure gold will hold it's value long term, and if anything it will just go to my family.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:29 | 3566532 kito
kito's picture

fonz........the next leg down comes mid decade....likely 2015.....i imagine an "overt" recession causes panic as the world would question what rabbit ben could pull out of his hat to counter it......or perhaps some type of acute global shock event occurs.........no chance the u.s. escapes this free and clear in the next 3-5 years............the ol boomerang is making its turn.........im just not sure how it plays out.................

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:35 | 3566546 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you, and panafrican below. I can't mentally tie a timeframe to this anymore. It's just mentally exhausting and it ends up driving me crazy. I can also see us being in a depression in 2015 with gold at $500 and the dow at 25k.

I am hanging around here for the company at this point. I had a thought about that and willhit you up with it later. I'd like to get your guys take on it.

In the meantime I punt on trying to make sense of it all. I am trying to reduce everything down to the most basic equation at this point. For example...I like pizza. So tonight I am going to have pizza.

Baaaaa Baaaaa


Wed, 05/15/2013 - 19:28 | 3567097 new game
new game's picture

i hear you and have divorced myself from what i see and hear-mental sanity.  i have learned that what is right doesn't mean it is going to happen and there is usually a good reason why evil is controling logical 'right' or normal (market) conditions, and most important; nota f'g thing i can do about it.  that said, i can move some assets to a more liquid state and plan accordingly.

like real estate for sale> two properties into a sellers market, currently...lots of interest.

then the tough part. what to do with a pile of frns???

load a large boat loaded to the gils with ______ and a glass bottom. costa rico? corpus cristi and ready for midnite voyage?

can shack at costa rico in brothers condo for a while.

condos for sale in crist for 49-79k

running out time to put the bail plan in place IMFO


Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:30 | 3566534 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I personally buy gold as a currency and counterparty risk hedge.  Through that lens, the Comex USD price is a relatively small component of the overall picture.  Remember, the USD price of anything matters only to the extent that the petrodollar matters.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:37 | 3566551 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Its a gurantee that if they slam COMEX down another $200 like they did in April, you'll see the same run on physical, and the wait for orders - and the premium accelerate again.  In the absence of sound stewardship of currency, and fiscal responsibilities the disconnect between the price of physical and the Comex price will widen.  Its because of this disconnect, this contradiction of evilness is why I will forever own the physical and pay little attention to anything else.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:52 | 3566413 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

that's what i can't understand.  the Fed would be better served by managing a controlled drift upwards in gold, or maybe even a flatline.  the demand for gold will end once the world stops printing monopoly money at breakneck speed - which is not anytime soon.   if the price keeps declining you're going to end up with a situation where it pops to $5000 in a week.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:59 | 3566437 kito
kito's picture

if in fact there was some type of shortage, you are right...makes no sense..........which, if the hammering continues.....may prove to be likely false.........there are way too many "i know someone who knows someone whos brother is a bullion dealer in hong kong" stories out there........................

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:01 | 3566445 seek
seek's picture

One look at the CME reports often cited here will show physical gold is moving. Rapidly.

If COMEX were truly concerned about default and has power over pricing, they'd hold the price high.

The price is low because TPTB want it low, and the reports are showing they're acquiring physical at the lower prices and moving it out of the system. The rush for delivery at low, low prices is delivery to "them". They don't give a shit about the public, and they don't give a shit about COMEX, or the paper/physical disconnect.

They give a shit about getting what gold is available into their hands at the lowest prices possible.

This will continue until they have enough gold, which basically is all of it. Then they won't care, but will probably keep the paper price suppressed until it's game over.

That all of this is happening right now is also a sign that "game over" is rapidly approaching.

At current rates I doubt we can make it to September without a major event in the metals markets, though it's interesting that both Scotia and JPM have had metal appear out of thin air (to be transferred out the next day) which might keep things going a bit longer. Just yesterday JPM somehow got 160,000 ounces to move from registered to eligible, doubling their eligible holdings. That game can't play on forever, either, though.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:14 | 3566475 kito
kito's picture

good points seek.................thanks...............

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:22 | 3566504 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

seek knows a lot more about this than I wver will. My only question to seek is...it's fractional reserve...so there is a tiny amount of gold and a whole shitload of people supposedly scrambling for it. Logic would dictate that it would not take long for them to hit that point where they are out of physical. It seems like it should take place almost in a day. A true run on the banks would be over in a half hour. This should not be any different. So, why is it?

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 18:06 | 3566565 kito
kito's picture

perhaps there are still enough "we buy gold" takers out there who are handing over their gold (on the sheeple level) to make up for any shortfall.....im in the city quite often and i cant walk one block without seeing "we buy gold".....think of the amount of aggregate gold that is getting siphoned off at the consumer level..its got to be massive....much of this has to find its way back to the bullion banks to cover any orders for physical..........

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:14 | 3568316 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

I agree with seek.

They'll pump the market continually, supress the PM price, buy as much metal as they can, and let go of the rubber band. They don't give a shit about us and our measly stack(s). For them, the longer the delay (days, hours, minutes) the better. It would be the easiest way for them to buy everything when the dust settles.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 19:35 | 3567123 seek
seek's picture

I think the way the Scotia inventory has been managed hints at what's going on.

Basically, X thousand ounces suddenly appears on Scotia's books, and then in the next day or two, those ounces are withdrawn.

My wild, rambling misinformed musings follow:

My suspicion is that COMEX is essentially already out of gold, that the current level of inventory (about 6.1 M troy oz on the COMEX) is "zero." Whenever the eligible falls to this number, fresh gold appears. What I think is going on is that members of TPTB, well-connected insiders, or bankrupt bullion banks (LBMA) are buying contracts at the low prices, and then getting delivery from the banks who themselves are sourcing the gold from outside COMEX, bringing it into the system for said delivery.

The question to me is where is the physical coming from, and what are the banks actually paying for it?

Regarding a run on gold, far fewer people are scrambling for COMEX gold than they are for physical via other sources (LCS, etc.) And funny that, during the last drop, it was sort of over in a day as far as dealer stock went.

While it is fractional reserve, however remember a large portion of the players are trading paper gold on margin; so when we hear the 100:1 paper to physical ratio, it's taking those player into account. These are the players that are having their faces ripped off for going long (on margin, lol), meanwhile, the paper players that are short (which are at record levels now!) will at some point cover, but they're covering paper, not physical. Between these stop-hunt crashes, it's flushing out margined longs and this huge volume of paper shorts, you can see it's a small portion of the overall market that's actually long stand-for-delivery physical. So in reality, the volume of players capable of standing for delivery is much smaller than the overall volume. Perhaps it's only a 10:1 ratio if this is considered. In the meantime, if you're a non-margin long, you're seeing the value of your contract go down, and if force majeur is declared, you lose money. Standing for delivery of gold on COMEX is actually carrying meaningful risk! It's a great setup for TPTB, you can only lose playing COMEX trying to get gold. (I am sure some small contracts for delivery go through, but I don't think a large purchase would.)

Long story short, people who want gold in volume who aren't TPTB know to not get it from COMEX. The scary part is that TPTB are getting it from COMEX, to the point of sending half (or potentially all, if you believe the 6.1M number is the "zero") of the inventory out the door in the past three months. In this sense, the run has already happened, it's just been hidden from view with clever accounting and price manipulation.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:31 | 3566537 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

+1 seek  

BTW kito, I've been at this a long, long time, and I'm struggling to find answers that make any sense at all. Clearly, worldwide demand for gold is off the hook right here and now, yet the price is being absolutely crushed. It is totally backassward.

So, you either stand your ground here (buy and hold) and continue to believe gold is a store of value or you don't. 

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:36 | 3566549 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

BOP what is driving me insane is that my place has gold. PLENTY of it. Granted they want 6% over spot...

What they don't have is silver. Any, and it's been that way forever now.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 18:02 | 3566591 kito
kito's picture

fonz......you cant find silver because the global elite are reproducing like crazy......and they all are born with silver spoons...

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 18:06 | 3566661 kito
kito's picture

plenty of silver on gainesville fonz

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 18:13 | 3566701 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I got ripped off online once. I only buy from a place I can walk out of with it now.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:27 | 3566525 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

Thank you.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 21:08 | 3567456 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

me thinks you got it wrong.  Comex wants lots of volume, the best way to generate that is to flush it low, on high volume.  they could leverage in and let the price whipsaw and  say pocket $250 bucks/oz rinse and repeat....  they done it once, in the middle of the second time, it will bottom at 1200 ish this time, next time, 1050.....

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:38 | 3566359 dolph9
dolph9's picture

I weep.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:39 | 3566362 johny2
johny2's picture

blue pill overdose by the end of the year is my guess.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:53 | 3566401 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining?
Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a blowing?

Not a speck of light is showing
so the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?

Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing
any signs that they are slowing!

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:14 | 3566464 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

You stole fizzy lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get nothing! You lose! Good day, sir!

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:41 | 3566372 akarc
akarc's picture

This all going to end very sadly

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 18:01 | 3566642 e-recep
e-recep's picture

yes, but it just doesn't fucking end.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 18:34 | 3566831 bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

Define "sadly" in this context.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:44 | 3566383 polo007
polo007's picture


Raising interest rates is never popular, but keeping rates low for too long builds in pervasive problems for the economy. Interest rates in nominal terms are at record low levels and negative in real terms, even though Canada’s GDP is only slightly below capacity. At the same time, there are symptoms of distortions created by low interest rates in financial markets: unfunded pensions, losses by insurance companies, excessive household debt, high house prices, and a bias toward high-yielding equities. Extremely low interest rates mean that the Bank of Canada has a long way to go before they approach a neutral setting. The time has come for the Bank to start raising interest rates gradually to lessen the continued build-up of financial imbalances.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:48 | 3566399 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture


We've been hearing this shit for years now. Please give it up (your cut n paste routine).

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:04 | 3566452 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

This is great...polo keeps spamming useless shit on ZH but dont get removed but I nearly got my ass banned coz someone (I am suspecting its thisson) found my posts to be racially unbearable for him to take.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:21 | 3566500 kito
kito's picture

wasnt me!! im looking forward to our bar mitzvah talk.........................

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:24 | 3566510 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

this polo dude spams everyday with useless TBTF bank shit. Annoying as hell.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:27 | 3566519 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Never had a thought in my mind that you would weasel me out....but I am positively sure it was that effer Thisson. But of course, Tyler/Sac gave me a reprieve after being here for almost FOUR fuckin years!

I guess I was the the FIRST GUINEA PIG used for the new racial discrimination policy. Feels good to being the 1st of everything I do.

Yup, looking forward to it as well.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 17:27 | 3566520 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

double post

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:46 | 3566388 polo007
polo007's picture


Raising interest rates is never popular, but keeping rates low for too long builds in pervasive problems for the economy. Interest rates in nominal terms are at record low levels and negative in real terms, even though Canada’s GDP is only slightly below capacity. At the same time, there are symptoms of distortions created by low interest rates in financial markets: unfunded pensions, losses by insurance companies, excessive household debt, high house prices, and a bias toward high-yielding equities. Extremely low interest rates mean that the Bank of Canada has a long way to go before they approach a neutral setting. The time has come for the Bank to start raising interest rates gradually to lessen the continued build-up of financial imbalances.

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 16:47 | 3566394 polo007
polo007's picture


Instead of firing a shot, the Fed has decided to use smoke signals. The first was the May 8 remark by Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher. The second — and more important — was Jon Hilsenrath's report in the Wall Street Journal which hit after market close last Friday. Mr. Hilsenrath reported that the Federal Reserve has been working on a strategy to taper back its quantitative easing program. Mr. Hilsenrath is widely viewed as being the Fed's mouthpiece, so it's quite likely that this second smoke signal was carefully timed to give investors an opportunity to process the information, to find out what is and is not true about what the Fed has planned, and finally, get used to the idea of life without quantitative easing. Through this carefully-orchestrated series of events, Dr. Bernanke was able to turn the blame game into the end game.

As luck would have it, the first trading day after Jon Hilsenrath's article brought a surprising report on April retail sales from the Commerce Department. The report disclosed that retail sales had unexpectedly increased by 0.1% in April, despite economists' expectations of a 0.3% decline. Not only was there some good news to offset Hilsenrath's bad news, but the Commerce Department report sent a ray of hope to those who were ready to accept Richard Fisher's contention that the Fed could claim "mission accomplished" and that it was finally time to do so.

What happens from here is anyone's guess. It's like Warren Buffet's "good movie" analogy — we don't know how it's going to end, so we need to watch closely.

However, so far this week, major U.S. markets have continued their non-stop melt up into overbought territory with yet another record day. A quick look at the chart of the S&P 500 shows the parabolic nature of this last upward move and the growing possibility of a blow-off top.

The S&P 500 is now approximately 12% above its 200-day moving average, and a gap this large was last seen back in March of 2000, just before the dot-com crash. Will history repeat or only rhyme, or in Yogi Berra's famous words, will we see "déjà vu all over again"?

Stock indices cannot keep going up forever, contrary to what you may have been told by your favorite television stock market commentator, and with the S&P 500 now up nearly 13% year to date, the index is on track for annual gains in excess of 25%.

Perhaps Bill Gross is right with his Tuesday Tweet: "Never have investors reached so high in price for so low a return. Never have investors stooped so low for so much risk."

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