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Gold Drops Below $1400
After retracing 61.8% of the gold crash, spot gold prices have fallen back and are now trading back under $1400 for the first time in four weeks. It would seem more time is perhaps needed to enable the gathering of physical gold to fufill Germany's demands... (and cue, the death of gold headlines) So, in summary, we have had a notable increase in tapering discussions - Treasury yields have surged, the USD has surged, Gold has dropped, and credit has widened - all reflecting lower liquidity flow expectations; but stocks just keep going...
Charts: Bloomberg
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How can the dollar be so strong? How can Gold and Silver continue to get slammed...We live in a 100% Bazzaro World....I tell you gentleman...I am going to keep on stacking...but boy does this get hard to keep a straight mind amidst all of this chaos that is going on. Bought 2 steaks and 2 ears of corn...along with a gallon of milk last night....$32.00. Are you kidding me?
What's that phrase I hear on ZH oh so often?
Oh yeah: BTFD.
Yeah BTFD all the way down.....I can not believe how this is going. Gas at $4.00 a gallon. Loaf of Bread around here (Good, No EBT) is $5 to $6. A Gallon of "Real" milk....not the steroid garbage is $6.80 a gallon. Wow...no inflation? Yeah right.
Woohoo!
@ takeaction: That price for food is fucking nuts. When you mention staking up you also mean beans, right?
Gold looks very weak technically now. Based on what I know about technical chart analysis, I would expect the gold price to continue falling. The question of why gold is falling is one that I will leave to the investment professional;, but there could be many reasons, including a recovering economy, a stronger job market and weaker global gold demand.
@MillionDollarBonus_: Explain the shortage of gold coins with your weaker gold demand thought. Its because JPM and GS can't control the distribution of gold physical when they control the spot prices.
After doing a thorough analysis using OHLC charts overlaying Elliott wave principle, Fibonacci ratios, momentum rate, the 200 and 50 DMA, crossover and resistance break out trending I have come to the conclusion that the in-depth analyses just preformed is for SHIT because the market is counterfeit!
As long as paper and physical remain connected (which they are), this is a great opportunity, for those that missed the last move down. Gold bars can still be bought for just $21 over spot.
Watch paper gold drop real time:
http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/
Then, buy some physical gold, which so far, continues to move with paper:
http://www.pmbull.com/physical-gold/
The US should just copy/paste ABN Amro's letter to Germany, send a C-130 full of Benjamins, call it the "Marshall 2 Plan" (or "-Marshall perhaps), and hold an Obama press conference to declare our "victory over" (and withdrawal from) the world economy.
Hey Goldybugs. Na Nana na na
You guys might want to keep an eye on this..
https://www.quantsig.net/live.html
Paper is going to zero. Thankfully we can take advantage of these faux prices and buy up the physical just as the elite are doing. Only after they have amassed the wealth will it be allowed to return to fair value. Keep stacking.
The paper price pushers can keep piling on their unlimited short positions to drive the price down. I wouldn't be surprised if they were buying as much physical bullion at the same time in an attempt to satisfy the futures buyers demanding delivery.
Just set reasonable buying targets and keep stacking. Meanwhile don't forget about other tangible "investments" for when the SHTF.
" Haresh Soni, chairman of the All India Gem and Jewellery Trade Federation, said banks and trading houses importing gold are getting only 10 per cent of their orders as the demand has surged sharply after a sudden slide in gold prices last month. “If they place order for one tonne, for instance, then they are getting only around 100 kg,” Soni said. “Consumers are buying in advance for family weddings scheduled in winter.” Buyers have been swarming to jewellers since last month as gold prices fell 11.5 per cent in a week, from over Rs 29,000 per 10 gm on April 10 to Rs 25,680 on April 17. Since then, the prices have partially recovered to about Rs 27,500 this week. "
http://silverdoctors.com/indias-banks-trading-houses-only-receiving-10-of-gold-orders/
And after delivering 200 tons of gold per month for the last 20 months, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has delivered 0.3 tons in May 2013.
http://www.goldminerpulse.com/v/shanghaiGoldExchangePhysicalDelivery.php
More on Indian and Dubai (up 10x) gold demand:
According to Mineweb gold imports to India ”jumped by 138% in April to $7.5 billion, massively pushing up the trade deficit. In April 2012, gold and silver imports stood at $3.1 billion.” That has accelerated the worries of the Indian government who has been fighting the current account deficit (which is the difference between inflows and outflows of foreign currency) caused by surging gold imports for many months now. The deficit touched an historic high of 6.7% of the GDP in the quarter ending December. ”India’s apex bank the Reserve Bank has gone ahead and restricted the import of gold on May 13, even as jewellers were doing brisk business given the huge demand on the auspicious occasion of Akshaya Tritiya.”
...
Another gold center the East, Dubai, saw demand for gold surging since the price collapse of last month, with demand far outstripping supply. Libertyblitzkrieg reports that “various estimates suggest that demand in the past few weeks has been nothing short of astronomical, surging by 10 times the normal demand.”
http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-general/gold-demand-india-dubai-...
Stock bulls: "Buy The Fucking Dip (BTFD)" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU
Gold bulls: "Buy The Fucking Bullion (BTFB)"
BTFD mantra seems to apply to PM as well as for stocks. ;-)
Me: 20% PM, 20% MMF-Cash, 20% Global Income/Bonds, 20% Global Stocks, 20% Real Estate (R/E). If stocks keep rising, I benefit. If they fall, I use MMF-Cash to BTFD. R/E = rent, get cash each month = No 3rd party risk (that I can't manage). No 'magic' involved, but is works like magic. No shills or salesmen either.
When you've reached the 20% PM level, no need to "keep stacking". No need to BTFB and paying fees to bullion/coin dealers. "Never enough" (of any asset class) is a disease of the mind & spirit, not fiscal planning.
Hey Goldybugs. Na Nana na na
Mr. moron Gainesville coins has all the gold you could possibly want one day delivery.....
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/category/489/gold-bars-and-rounds.aspx?id=489&cat=&orderby=&sortdir=asc&graphicalview=False&maxview=15&filterby=showall&page=2
Lowest price for physical I can find right now is $1454, so still $50-$60 over spot.
1 oz. minimum, 100 oz available (on Nucleo Exchange, I won't bother linking directly)
May I suggest http://www.providentmetals.com
The PM Fix at 3pm London time was $1410. The subsequent $15 drop within the next hour is justpaper vapor, notwithstanding that the London Fix is mostly unallocated smoke and mirrors also, along with physical intervention by Michael Cross and his team in the Bank of England to calm down the price by offering physical if demand is too excess for their liking..
Connected? How? Called my second string coin shop today (first string is closed on Wed). Asked how much to buy silver eagles. Answer: $37.50 for all except 2013s which are $40.
How are the paper and physical prices connected?
Asked how much they would pay me for silver eagles. $23. Asked why they would pay me so much less. They said no one was even coming in b/c the shortage has been going on so long. Whatever. That's why they're second string.
Asked how much for 1/10 gold eagles. They have none. Wouldn't quote me a price over the phone for buy or sell on those!
Connected? How and where?
Asked how much they would pay me for silver eagles. $23. Asked why they would pay me so much less. They said no one was even coming in b/c the shortage has been going on so long.
Lol sounds legit.
Around here the street price for silver rounds $27 and ASE $29-30, drive to Phoenix and you can save a $1 a coin. If silver were to drop under $20, you might see a little drop in the price for physical? Your dealer is right about no sellers. Most people buying physical silver are in it for the long run. I would imagine when silver breaks $50, you might get some sellers? When silver is over $50, gasoline may be $10/gal, milk $10/gal, etc... Trading FRNs for silver is easy, letting go of silver for FRNs is not.
Your dealer is right about no sellers.
For the love of God don't be so thick. His dealer says there's a phys shortage, no one is selling to the shop so dealer offers below fair price (relative to spot) on the eagles???? Meanwhile he's selling his eagles at a major premium because the demand is so high??
Did you miss a sarc tag or something?
@Clashfan - When paper silver goes up, physical silver goes up, and vice versa.
Granted, the spreads may widen on price smashes, but directionally, they are still connected.
You are perplexed because your dealer gouges.
$37 for an Eagle? Really?
Ever heard of something called "shopping around?"
Go to:
http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/
You can get New Silver Eagles, available to ship now (no waiting), for nearly 30% less than your dealer quotes.
Ty, Glitters, but I'm a working class fellow (teach college online) who likes to buy in person, with cash, period. So I am limited to a place I can drive to with the little bit of my paycheck money that I have, to stack a few coins. I go with seventy or eighty bucks sometimes; sometimes I have a few hundred and can buy a 1/10 gold eagle or two. I try to only buy eagles, silver or 1/10 gold. Really all I can do.
And what I'm seeing, buying at this level, is a disconnect between paper and physical.
I posted what that dealer said b/c yes, I don't trust that dealer too much, esp w/the low price offered to pay me for selling. But I have been "shopping around" today and found a much better deal. Took me almost three hours, though. Better deal I found is to buy silver eagles at 33, buy 1/10 eagles between 150-160. I also have to figure in drive time and gas. Luckily, I found someone close.
But my point, originally, is that there is a growing disconnect. It's been steadily growing over the years I've been doing this.
BTW, same guy offering the above deal offers it person-to-person, not out of the store. Says he has to charge 40 for silver eagles if I buy in the store.
Just reporting what I'm seeing in my area, folks. Spot today is 23, but if I walk into his store to buy one of the 8 silver eagles he has there today, it's forty bucks.
And what I'm seeing, buying at this level, is a disconnect between paper and physical.
Interestingly there's no difference between the 'paper' price and what the dealer is willing to buy from you at, if anything there's a negative correlation. But a very different price when it comes to selling to you.
Hmmm what would be the implication.....
Ok Clashfan, I'm hearing you. From that perspective, you are correct about the disconnect and it does indeed seem to be a function of supply. As I understand it, the demand for Eagles has resulted in rationing, so allocations going to small shops from Authorized Purchasers / Wholesalers is virtually non-existent.
I imagine smaller local shops simply have to wait for silver to come in from sellers. At the small shop level, I suppose they can get outrageous premiums - although some will end up alienating potential customers and when supply becomes available, they will have lost their buyers forever. Many small shop owners don't care - they have the same attitude as small, independent used car lots. Willing ot rip off a few, rather than sell to many happy customers in volume. Maybe that is only the case with lazier shop owners.
What is now happening in the market, this is not an attack against gold. It is an attack against the silver. Gold in this attack is just a distraction.
Cartel seeks at all costs to get people to give up buying physical silver. Any price - which means even at the cost of switching attention of investors on the physical gold by very low price.
And the cartel managed to do this by creating a large spread between the buying and the selling price of physical silver. Everything else, including the drop in prices - it's just a game to distract attention.
What kind of idiot would buy physical silver if the Buy Back Price of silver in "one-window" brings a 40% loss?
How much time do you now have to wait to get your current investment in silver, they brought you a profit?
You now need to wait until the silver has risen in price by 40% to just get a break-even deal!
In such a situation would be more correct to buy gold. Because, at the selling gold back in "one window", your loss will be only 5-6%. This means that with the growth of gold by 7%, you will be in profit.
But with the growth of silver even at 14%, you'll still lose out 26%!
Thus, the cartel has achieved its goal - market of physical silver, was destroyed.
The cartel made physical silver like the diamonds. The diamonds you can easily buy everywhere. But when you try to sell your diamonds, you immediately lose 50% of the purchase price. This is at a minimum.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/02/have-you-ever-tried-...
Now, the cartel decided to use exactly the same mechanism against silver.
And they did it. Just as long as we do not understand the nature and importance of the ongoing manipulation on the silver market.
Yes that dealer has too much of a spread on his buy/sell prices, but even if he offered fair prices (say spot for buy and $4 over for sell) not many physical silver stackers "sell on the dip". So most shops aren't seeing silver sellers, only silver buyers. They can pay retail and buy online, but there is very little margin in that, plus it takes time to get an order.
Thanks Fedbuster, but I'm talking eagles, not rounds. :)
Getting cheaper, but this may be it?
As I say, I'm not an expert on this stuff. I think the silver market also looks very weak though. I wonder what the explanation for this drop is? I'm interested to hear some of the takes of the sell side analysts.
@MillionDollarBonus_: Look up Andrew Maguire
GLD and SLV are being looted of their metal via the crime syndicate bullion banks.
Any other questions I can help you with?
hi g7 called a meeting for this wekkend on short notice its pretty clear europe is headed into the abyss jeff saut expects a huge euro qe this could be a takedown before the event just a guess
Exactly, those greedy fuckers who tought gold would go to $2000 , $2500 and $5000 are really screwed now.
Gold goes below $1000. BAG HOLDERS will be killed. Technicals more important now. Screw fundamentals.
gave u a greenie cause ur so funny....
"screw fundamentals...."
that was hilarious...
Gold goes below 1000, Comex/LBMA are killed. FTFY
Idle thoughts...
There is no shortage of funny money to meet delivery settlement problems on either exchanges, backstopped all the way, so is it realistic to expect that even without the ability to deliver they will "fail"?
Have been with this for 8 years, at first the double deficits & then earlier QE as justification but this is all now totally ass about face as they have too many concerted levers to pull to manipulate the "price".
It appears we could be in a 3 to 5 year bear wave down within a bull cycle, which means USD cash is king on the fx front & only after this point 2015 -2017 gold could ascend (?).
What if the master plan is for the (B) RIC countries & others to accumulate at these prices or lower, to be confronted with decades of even lower prices - the final solution from the West?
Just saying....( or BTFD lol )
Lower prices, w/o suppression, can only happen by raising interest rates.
Is that what you propose is about to happen, because I would like a detailed case analysis, if so. Seems highly unlikely they could change the plan at this stage in the game.
Hear you but it was always taken by many that if rates were below 2% we had an ascending price...look where we are.
Suppression up the Khyber - this was the point albeit not made that well.
Not proposing anything just pondering the other side...
Hugarianboy:
"Gold goes below $1000. BAG HOLDERS will be killed. Technicals more important now. Screw fundamentals."
In a world where gold goes under $1000, fundamentally, you'll be able to buy an average house for about 70 or 80 ounces. Keep stacking my friend.
gold goes below 1000 I will buy/sell everything that's not nailed down to buy all the way to zero. Would do the same for housing as well. Oh wait but cramer didn't tell me to do that.............Hmmmmm..........I wonder what the banksters are buying?
"screw fundamentals" = joke, can only be. Let me take a look at the debt woes - US government is almost 17 trillion in debt, Europe is in a depression (I know as I live in Europe). In my country, households hold 250% debt to GDP, businesses 249% hold 249% debt to GDP and government is 325% to GDP (with unfunded liabilities). Sure ... SCREW FUNDAMENTALS buddy!!!
Oh, not to mention 45 MILLION people on foodstamps in the USA??? WTF???
SCREW FUNDAMENTALS??? lol
MDB, according to my research, expansions of monetary base often are first expressed by surging stock markets since the money flows into financial assets first. We see that Japan and Argentina are leading the way right now despite their economies being in a shambles (funny sidenote; I lived in Japan for three years and never once heard anybody complaining about deflation - a country with $50 tolls to drive from chiba to ginza, which is a half hour - the most expensive country on the planet has a deflation problem - amusing, no?).
Anyway, since most people associate rising stock markets with good times, they have probably programmed their computers to sell gold and silver. Silver should be the stock bull's biggest concern. After all it goes into all of those wonderful electronic gizmos that will lead us to the next great prosperity.
Oh yeah, people who don't own silver can sell it, which is a little bit peculiar.
Jeggernault,
As a coin collector and metals investor, I can tell you the simple reason why coin and bar supplies are tighter in down markets:
As you can see, supply of bars and coins can get tight even in a downward market. Its not uncommon.
@Mugatu: Its The Juggernaut. You're missing the point. It goes beyond gold physical broker/dealers. The actual mint halted sales because they ran out of inventory. There are explicit graphs that show the spike in physical as spot tumbles. Its nearly perfectly negatively correlated. Its paper (GLD, IAU) versus physical delivery.
US Mint Halts Sales, Depletes Inventory Of One-Tenth Ounce Gold Coins+1 Good obs
Bigger dealers don't care about price fluctuation. For every 5000 oz they buy, they short 5000 oz as well. All they care about is the premium.
The interesting thing I see from the coin dealers I deal with is that the straight bullion coins have *changed*. They used to have buckets full of all of those commemorative coins. In the last month it has dried up, leaving only these ugly but fresh APMEX coins. This tells me that the supply has dried up quite a bit, and all of the bullion floating around has dried up, making them have to mint more new ones. Combine this with the US mint's sellout, it seems to me that the reason for the supply shortage is that there is in fact a shortage of the physical coins. There is no longer a slush of old, recycled silver. There's some new supply coming out, but probably not fast enough for the demand. I imagine it is a game of chicken between the physical investors and the price manipulators. Whichever blinks first loses.
Wake me when it's below $300 an ounce (the dollar cost average on my physical holdings) troll. by the way, that ounce of silver still fills the tank. Why don't you tell us all what the purchasing power looks like for the wages in that "strong job market" - LMFAO!!!
LoP, I am genuinely happy for your own PM stash, but... your position is not the point of the posting or the blogs. Let's be honest here: Nobody gives a damn about an investment made, say, 10 or 20 years ago.
What matters is the investment (if speculating) or purchase (to buy & hold) you made last year or 6 months ago. Versus other investments or purchases you could have been made. Finance 101: You always, Always, ALWAYS compare the NPV of two or more opportunities. All else is BS. Seen in this brutal light of day, PM looks like a shitty investment/purchase, because you lost you get negative ROI (if investing/speculating), and it was shitty if you bought bullion, because you clearly overpaid (compared to today's price).
I don't give a damn about gold "investors" (speculators!), or the PM shills who live off the buying & selling -- and watch them come out in droves now. I only care about the average guy who bought PM as a hedge, and who overpaid. Those of us who dove in to buy bullion a month ago (myself included) are also looking foolish. A Monster Box of Ag is no $1200 cheaper. That's $1200 fucking dollars that are no longer in my pocket.
Even as someone who holds both bullion (in vault) and unallocated pool accounts of PM, I have to fess up to this truth, because I won't let my own pride and hopes color my world-view. I hope others can do the same.
You should come to an extremely good understanding of why you are buying and holding gold/silver. You don't buy it and then go... damn I lost money! Not if you believe in gold and silver anyway, because you have not lost any of your gold and silver.
If you believe in unbacked, irredeemable, government issued fiat paper currency then yes, you lost some of that.
Bingo, the world is about to re-learn precisely what counterparty risk and purchasing power really means.
Exactly. I buy confidently now more than ever. Every day is a discount now. Faith is fiat may be the new 'normal', but that doesn't change the dollar's destiny. Consider the masses' current delusion a gift from God.
I'm of that mindset now as well. Every now and then I simply buy more and I've stopped monitoring my average purchase price and other 'stats'.
Keep stacking. Enough said.
I don't know what you use your bullion for -- golden calf altar? -- but I use it as an asset like any other.
At some point, I will either choose to trade it for cash (take my winnings), or I have to (need the cash to buy stuff, pay bills). Regardless of whether I choose to or have to trade PM for cash, the argument remains the same: You hope that you can cash it in for the same or more cash (assuming constant purchasing power -- ha, ha /sarc). But you'd be 'pissed', if you got less cash than what you paid for (what "purchasing power"?). In this scenario, you'd have been better of with keeping it as cash or buying the things that now cost more (retain purchasing power by storing up on goods directly, not its intermediary of gold or silver). I repeat: Today a Monster Box of silver costs $1200 less than a month ago. That's $1200 that I no longer have for other things. So talk to me about "purchasing power"! Pfff!
PM is an "asset", not the "Second Coming of Christ". But given the way some people promote it, you gotta wonder... about their competence or agenda I see some gold shills rejoicing on PM price rises and also rejoicing on price dips. Which is it? Up is 'good' or Down is 'good'? Make up you fucking mind! Are you a fool, or hoping we are? These people are either idiots or crooks -- who sound exactly the same as realtors, bond/stock brokers or used-car salesmen: "It's always a good time to buy!" "Buy now before it costs more, and be sure to dollar-cost average!" "Just BTFD!" Riiiiight.
p.s. If I hadn't diversified into other asset classes when I invested a pile of cash last year, I'd be looking at a 30% hit if I'd invested in PM and 'had' to cash in today. As it is, it hurts (assuming I can ride it out), but thankfully other assets (stocks, rental income investment) are way outperforming my PM portion for the last 8 months. Please note: The ONLY Timeline that matters is YOUR timeline, no that or "asset promoters". Asset promoters/shills can and will always, always, always find stats & charts to support their sales pitch.
pps . THE worst fear (nightmare scenario) a PM owner (like me) can have, is that TPTB will keep driving down the PM prices, and then -- before enough people had the good sense to hold bullion -- they do their Big Reset. During a Big Reset, I expect them to nationalize all PM (gold, silver, platinum and palladium), so that no Commoner can access bullion/coins when they re-anchor the inflated fiat supply to PM. I'd expect a 3-5 day Bank Holiday (as part of some national holiday and ppl are distracted anyway), during which time gold would rise from $1400 to $Many_Thousands. If you're not a banker or bullion holder yourself, you get locked out via Force Majeur. The doomsday scenario that's even WORSE, is this: The Fed-led CB's decides to peg their currencies to SDRs (gold-backed?), and issue their version of Bitcoin (I call it 'Fedcoin') for retail transactions and public debt. If they come out with Fedcoin, PM is 'toast', and we are looking at a "666" scenario. Gold will then become an expensive metal commodity, and not as a competitor to currency. Of course, in a "666" Fedcoin scenario, we will have bigger problems than gold.
Are you the guy who went to Simon Black's conference and listened yo Ron Paul, Schiff etc. etc etc?
You sound like you are cracking up. Gold is money. Not an asset. Not the second coming of Christ. It is MONEY.
I would have thought you would have figured that out.
Haha...I said the same exact thing to this guy just a week or two ago.
And according to James_Cole and the (so-called) World Gold Council, gold's primary if not sole function lies in it being made into shiny baubles for women. Oh, and a smattering of dental and other industrial applications.
(Must only discuss that 'investment' angle rarely and when forced to do so, under the breath, minimizing its depth and importance at all costs, with smirks and obvious contempt.)
Early on in my purchases of physical, I was also very concerned about short term USD price movements. It gets better over time. Each time you see some really bad shit happen somewhere in the world (domestically or internationally), or experience some adverse personal economic event, it gets progressively easier to understand the value of going to that stash and seeing it all still there, completely unfucked with.
Kirk...you need to make up your mind why you're holding PMs. If you're watching the "price" with some notion that you either will want or will have to "cash in" your PMs, then they are like any other asset class. My PMs are not part of my liquidity, and that is entirely on purpose. Even in a Big Reset, I have stored other forms of currency to enable transactions as needed (domestic and foreign fiat and lots of barter items); PMs will not enter the equation.
So I never call PMs an "asset" in the investment sense. The main reason is that all other investment "vehicles" represent a claim on some third-party cash flow. REITs, bonds, stocks and their compilations into ETFs and mutual funds, etc. are all "derivatives" in the sense that their value is not 100% intrinsic to the holder. That is the physical metal play.
From your comments, you are exactly the cohort that the TBTF are currently targeting to shake loose of your coinage.
"Nobody gives a damn about an investment made, say, 10 or 20 years ago." - That sir is the fundamental problem, as no one seems to have a long-term view. Guess what motherfucker, we now get to live through the consequences of choices/decisions that were in fact made 20-40 years ago. Many of us know or have known real people who have survived real depressions and world wars. Life is about choices, perhaps more people should have listened to what these people had to say.
1. While I don't disagree with your generic advice/view about the "long term", I did not make this an issue. You're sidestepping and re-directing the POINT.
2. POINT = It is NOT useful for the readers what someone (you) did years & years ago. My point was that it is far more relevant and useful to state what a recent/current set of investment choices might look like. Because more people can relate to it. (But thanks for sharing your $300/oz anecdote for the 150th time.) Whenever a person has a choice to spend their (hard-earned?) "money", they are faced with NPV scenarios. In our PM scenario, if the price of PM drops (say 25-35%), then it means that I could have bought more oz. of PM (if I had waited till now). And I'd lose 25-35% if I had to sell now. Alas, "life" happens to others outside your private cocoon, and sometimes people 'have' to sell when the timing is bad (per Murphy's Laws). It so happens that I don't have to sell right now -- not by a long shot -- but in hindsight, each Monster Box of Silver that I got last month is now $1200 cheaper, and represents how much more PM I could get now, or how I could have used that cash for other stuff. Savvy? And please note the subtle implications that had I wanted to 'speculate' in PM, I would not have bought Monster Boxes (given the buy-sell margins).
For pure 'speculation' (i.e. trips to the "PM Casino") I prefer going long, short, or buying into Unallocated Pool Accounts. And it would be in poor form to bitch about 'casino' losses or brag about its gains.
3. LoP, get off your arrogant high horse of intellectual and moral superiority. It does not impress or intimidate me, but does lower my respect for you. And don't try to BS anyone on ZH, we all know that you love people's respect on ZH (with your repeating mantras). ;-) Please learn to differentiate between opinion, fact, inquiry, venting, or proclamations and sweeping laws. Your unprovoked verbal abuse only betrays your true state of mind, and says something (very negative) about you. A person who is truly happy in their own skin, who is happy with their personal & professional life, and station in life ("Am I where I think I should be by now"?), has NO need to abuse others w/o provocation. Else it says something about them. If you need to vent w/o provocation, take it out on your family or farmhands. No doubt they love you for it.
OK, but at the heart of what you are getting at are two issues: trading, and timing.
Thats not how most look at precious metals at the moment. I am young. I have a long term view. If I never have to cash in my gold that is ideal. It means the shit never hit the fan! I can pass it on to a grandchild, then, perhaps.
If you are always thinking "will the price be lower in a month" you will put off building any stack whatsoever. So the common advice to the beginning stacker is to not fret so much, because you don't want to see people get left behind.
Maybe the Reset happens overnight (I am also in this camp), maybe it happens gradually. We don't know, and it certainly isn't worth taking the chance, if you have no stack to speak of.
Similarly, selling your stack and buying it back today would have made you some USD, but what if between selling and buying it back 'the event' happens. Then what good did all the trading, and saving, and pre-planning do you?
Alright boys and girls lets try this one again. Class can you tell me which one is on sale right now?
http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?relative_ytd.png&rev=634660477839218750
Can we see that chart going back 5, 10, 15, and 20 years? Yeah, I thought so...
I think you miss the point of investing in physical precious metals. It is an intrinsic storehouse of value. It (almost) does not matter what the price is. Let's say I buy my wife a 22, gold necklace. That is a storehouse of value that can be *used* while it is storing value. And, when it is passed on to the next generation, it will have increased in both numismatic and emotional value, whether or not the raw bullion price went up or down. Stock doesn't increase in numismatic or emotional value. And the paper depends entirely on the ethics of the people running the company.
You should also see the following:
Investments and the Moral Decay of America
Things to Think About Before Investing (a reply to Warren Buffet's position on gold)
$300... Yeah right lol. Okay lets go with your charade. BTW, why did you buy all your present gold at so early a time? Did you know for certain it will Quintuple? If so, you sir are the greatest investor on earth. Hahahahahahahahahah. Or is that another planet of your hallucinations where you bought gold at $300? Anyway, you should see a shrink. So should many goldbugs.
"you sir are the greatest investor on earth" - No, I just paid attention to my grandfather and bought every time the spot price dropped. Don't be such a douchebag, there were/are people who you may have known who survived a great depression and two world wars. Intead of playing all those videogames, maybe you should have listened to what they had to say. Life is about choices, start by making the right ones from now on.
Just because I didn't live in 1929 when the Stock Market crashed doesn't mean it didn't happen. Just because I didn't live in the 1930's doesn't mean the Great Dression didn't happen, or could never happen again. Perhaps the price of homes can never come down too.
Some people say that there is a lot of talk of collapse, catastrophe, and financial armageddon but as they keep waiting to see that happening, they don't see it as currently happening, or having happened. Okay, then it hasn't happened... FOR THEM. FOR ME, seeing nearly 17 Trillion in National Debt, 1 Trillion in ongoing yearly deficits, bank bailouts, QE1/2/3/4Ever, etc, etc, etc... and that's after having lived through a number of summers that were claimed to be the "Summer of Recovery", I've seen enough. I can't say when enough is enough for someone else, only myself.
For this summer of recovery, I guess I should expect someone from the Gov't to knock on my door telling me I have to purchase one of their Health Care policies whether I want it or not, or pay a fine. That's how Gov't recoveries roll.
Interesting how the gov't is always so optimistic headed into the summer... Almost like they know the populace is cheerful and in good spirits (at least somewhat in tune with the season, that is) so they are telling them what they want to hear.
I remember I did a presentation in business school back in 2008, about the US, and that it faced an 'L-Shaped Recession' going forward. Well, if you look at the stock market it was perhaps incorrect. But if you look at the economy, I'd say it was pretty spot on.
"Figures lie, and Lairs do a lot of figuring" - old proverb
You can make any asset class look good or bad, depending on the time-frame you choose. The great irony of many but not all ZH gold bulls -- for all their pretense of honesty in economics -- is that although they are happy to use stats & charts that support their case, they become downright hostile when someone uses these stats & charts against them. They then resort to switching to different tome windows. E.g. last Dec., when PM was in a down-slide, they (correctly) argued that it was still 'up' for the year. Fair enough. But not that it's down for a lot more, rather than admitting to it, they change the time scale and offer the classic "On a long enough timeline..." argument. /Pfff, nice./s
I always get a kick out of people who 'sell' (promote) something as a "buy" opportunity under all conditions. These 1-D souls (ideologues/zealots), never have a "hold" or "sell" ability, and seem to begrudge other of it.
Unlike some, I have the personal and intellectual integrity to admit that my "timing" to buy PM last summer/fall was "shitty". In hindsight. I'm not bitter & twisted about it, or "cracking up", as someone asked/suggested. But I am a but "miffed". Miffed at myself for having trusted these faux-experts, these false prophets, these gold bulls -- who talked suuuuuch a good story last year, and went practically sideways on those who suggested that a correction was coming.
/ "Money can be made in a bull market and bear market. But pigs get slaughtered." -Gordon Gecko. I was a little bit of a PM 'pig', I suspect. IF I had to sell now, I wouldn't be slaughtered, but I'd be getting some financial "lipo-suction" on my PM holdings. And now I have to listen to the same BS from the gold bulls as from the stock bulls: Ride it out. That's a lot of bull to ride. /s
Lesson/Moral: Beware of Bull market and Bear market "experts". DYOH and stick to basic investments principles of asset allocation, risk mitigation and portfolio re-balancing.
When you cannot proceed on trust, proceed on principles. In fact, trust is overrated. When it comes to serious matters of all kinds, proceed on robust principles all the time. Else, if you have too much money to burn, go the the casino or buy lottery tickets. Or take a nice holiday.
You're losing it, buddy. Welcome to manipulated markets. When you bought silver, did no one tell you that it is a direct bet against JP Morgan. Similarly with gold and the Fed?
I am also glad that I started accumulating when in the 300's and only wish had done more then. But satisfied with my diversification over time. You know, I stash it and forget about it. Never have viewed as get rich quick. My real wish is the day I really need it never comes.
+1. Sarcasm always appreciated. Too bad for the 90% of ZH-ers who can't perceive it.
Probably deflate and buy. then inflate and hoard the gold. (and everything worth value)
@MDB ,
I don't trust the stock market ,, I don't trust the (paper) gold price because I KNOW it is manipulated ...
Here's what I do know ...
(1) My favorite Great Depression quote is "In 1936 you could buy prime steak for a nickel a pound but nobody had any nickels."
(2) The people that heald onto wealth through the downside made out HUGE when they bought in on the upside ,, and they had a 10 year window to invest in before valuations skyrocketed.. (1940-1950 or so) ..
(3) My great uncle saved one years salary (not in army due to flat feet) from a factory job , and bought lakeside New Hampshire real estate in 1947 ... NEVER WORKED ANOTHER DAY IN HIS LIFE ,, just built a cottage and sold it off each year.
(4) The manipulated prices will revert to reality QUICKLY when they do ,, and if you're leveraged YOU'RE TOAST.
I am looking at Gold/Silver as the best possible wealth preservation option today ... besides , gold is portable and valuable in EVERY SQUARE MILE OF THIS PLANET ...
I had a vietnamese girlfriend years ago , a small stack of gold coins got her and the members of her family that weren't murdered at the end of the war onto a boat and all the way to freedom... That's POWER brother.
Gold looks very weak technically now. Based on what I know about technical chart analysis, I would expect the gold price to continue falling. The question of why gold is falling is one that I will leave to the investment professional;, but there could be many reasons, including a recovering economy, a stronger job market and weaker global gold demand.
rolling with laughter. NONE OF WHICH EXIST.
"...what I know about technical analysis..." - isn't that a double negative right there?
"Wake me when it's below $300 an ounce (the dollar cost average on my physical holdings) troll. by the way, that ounce of silver still fills the tank. Why don't you tell us all what the purchasing power looks like for the wages in that "strong job market" - LMFAO!!!"
Congratulations, now please stop posting this same shit every time gold goes down. How about some new commentary?
When something actually changes, I'd be happy to, otherwise, the truth is still the truth.
Recovering economy? Stronger Job market? Weaker global demand in gold? Are you being serious.... or you just want to get a rise out of people?
Stronger job market? Do you mean the destruction of full time jobs and the creation of part time jobs so that employers can get out from under Obamacare? Srtonger job market my ass.
My stack has one counterparty risk: worms. Underground and on ZH.
including a recovering economy, a stronger job market and weaker global gold demand.
***************************************
recovering economy?? not where I'm at... , stronger job market is an illusion as people are shunted into less than full time , people aren't being fired and some pt hiring is going on , total hours is still dropping , workforce participation will be bouyed but is a false indicator at this time. As for weak global gold demand .. you've gotta be kidding ... if there was a scrap to be had the central bankers would snap it up.
Inflation has actually felt rather tame in comparison where I personally thought it would be by now.
I blame the soma-consuming lethargic population. "A central banker says X" according to the TV. Oh, he's wearing a really nice suit, he must be telling us the truth.
it feels tame cause they keep taming the size of food containers
then there's all the dirty, criminal tricks made to export most of its effects
what these idiots are guaranteeing is not just inflation, but hyper inflation, where the world, suddenly, loses all patience and respect, sees our perpetrators for what they are, and the dollar collapses, along with the pathetic remains of the middle class.
Oil, gold, silver, equities, bonds. Everything has been manipulated, suppressed, boosted, or bid up. The thing about manipulation... Its an ongoing process. You can't just one day say "Alright, good. We're done here. Manipulation accomplished" because the next day the market would reassert itself, whether your position has been closed or not.
Having the world reserve currency has also put a lag in the process, as DJ describes. Dollars come flooding home at some point, and people will just want something tangible, whether that is wheat, soy beans, gallons of oil, gold, or silver, I will let you decide, but they are going to want to spend those dollars before they are even more worthless.
A bag of chips when I was growing up was 270 g, if not 300 g. A bag of chips is now 200 g or even 180 g. On top of that the price has gone up. 20 Coke cans in a flat now, instead of 24 (no change to the price).
Dr. Paul Krugman is hard at work as we speak developing the curriculum for Market Manipulation/Gaming The System: How To Profit In The New Normal for next semesters fresh young minds at Princeton.
Note its also possible those people in Argentina, Saudi Arabia, China, HK, Singapore will want some nice real estate in Florida, but don't expect that bubble to reflate nationwide. There are going to be pockets of prosperity in the US (assuming the current path is maintained), much like any 3rd world country. LA or NY might be run down, but Beverly Hills or Manhattan or Washington (!!!) would still be affluent.
They are trying to break your spirit, brother. One day soon COMEX runs out of product and if they think people will be overjoyed with cash settlements they are even crazier than they look.
Soon?
Well, word is they can't even find any tungsten to plate....
Looks like a repeat of Zimbabwe in 2007 when their stocks went sky high, meanwhile the economy tanked
'takeaction' guy: "Yeah BTFD all the way down.....I can not believe how this is going. Gas at $4.00 a gallon..."
That's why Asset Allocation is key. If you bet the farm on one asset (class), you get everything you deserve. If you don't know where PM is headed, but do know where food & energy is headed, then maybe it's time you forgot the BTFD mantra -- and stopped salivating like Pavlov's dogs -- and BTFD on food & energy!?
/ Of course there is no money to be made by gold shills and speculators, when people buy food instead of silver coins. /s
Beware, there are PLENTY of bullion & coin dealers trolling here, who would love nothing better than to get you to visit them, rather than a grocery store. And who will spew their propaganda, like a desperate realtor, bond trader or stock broker looking for his next commission/meal.
book sellers and snake oilers - if is was the wild west i would insult them, get em to drawout and take-em-out with my colt...
now a days all we can do is ignore them.
beam me back 125 years, yuma style.
SLAP DAT HO DOWN!!
Unfortunately it's clear that for well over a year now it would have been much wiser to PYFA (Pick Your Fuckin' Ass) instead whenever someone had declared BTFD...
Gold will face a tough battle as more countries like Argentina demand $'s!
Timely!
Wrong. When Argies figure out the US gov't is the exact same as their gov't then they will not convert into USD, they will convert into PM like the people of the Middle East, India, China, and of course, the stackers in Europe and North America (are there any stackers in Africa?)
"Wrong. When Argies figure out...."
When is "when"?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQZc5v77Qwk
When this goes top of the charts
there is nowhere to go, except gold(eventually)...
Yes, those who still posses their hands keep digging.
takeaction,
So you too have notice that there's no inflation.
Japanese money is flowing into US dollars.
And Euro's
It's called the insiders getting short for the summer drop in equities, without them shorting equities. This is a strong sell your longs signal (for equities)
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1368648000000&chddm=1564&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:SPY;NYSEARCA:SLV;NYSEARCA:GLD&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=NYSEARCA:USO&&fct=big&ei=MKGTUYG1GPC10AGYHA
Sell your physical gold, have your face ripped off in the next couple years.
Short equities now, similarly, IMO your face will get ripped off. Not because I don't think its overvalued, but if they continue devaluing the currency then who knows what a FV for the DJI is.
Don't let this get to you. The whole idea behind the manipulation is to discourage people like you. Just recognize it for the lie that is is and capitalize on it when you can. All truths eventually come out.
Insiders swap their worthless currencies for gold. Soon, the window shuts. Some companies go bust, people will be angry, will want answers and blame assigned. Politicians predictably scurry about, eventually locate a completely non-related scapegoat (ie, the "evil speculators")... doesn't change the fact that the real thieves are long gone, richer than ever before.
Shit, You are so right!!!! But ehhhh hold on a minute.....
You can either be right, or RICH!
Who cares? I'll be rich, while you are right.
Define rich. If your definition of rich is measured by somebody else's liability then you aren't rich at all. You are just a slave to the idea that they might pay you back. Personally my definition of rich has nothing to do with money.
Rich for me is a beautiful mary jane plant that keeps giving her bounty season after season.
Can't take anything with you on the next phase of existence (that I'm aware of).
People spend so much time avoiding the realization that death will come knocking - I want to answer the door having enjoyed some fine wine and ganga.
Absolutely Doc, and the truth is that the US debt ceiling temp limit expires in just a few days. This gives the MSM just what they need to tow the party line. "gold can't be a safe haven against excessive government debt, just look at it's performance this year. Yada Yada."
you must have bot $827 corn instead of $615 corn....!!
it's all in the timing...!!
Corn around 4 dollars at the end of the season. They've planted a shitload of it.
heard it here first
I haven't been to IOWA yet this year ... did they plant early or wait for April? How are soybeans looking?
"How can the dollar be so strong? How can Gold and Silver continue to get slammed."
Try not to see the world through American eyes. Europe is falling into the abyss, things are getting desperate. But this is under reported here in states. Investers living in EU see it every day. By comparison the U.S. is booming. Perhaps the cleanest dirty shirt theory in play.
I know they're more corrupt than the US, but wouldn't Russia be a much cleaner "dirty shirt"??? Real growth, flat tax, soon to be trading directly with China?
WOW!!!............not another short squeeze???????????????????????????
i note down all my purchases. retail meat price inflation is 12.5% per annum at the moment.
Food's not included in the CPI silly.
Looking into breathitarianism. This shit's getting expensive
I am waiting for a single digit print on GDXJ before I buy anything PM-related.
How can the dollar be so strong? As long as the U.S. has the strongest military it will remain strong.
Look at the pre-London open and the London close...
this shit is laughable...aint nobody selling no mother fucking physical Gold or Silver....
cant wiat for my dealer to open...
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
The dollar is strengthening because its relative position to other currencies. As the world crashes and looks for safety, the dollar looks to be the 'one eyed king' in the land of the blind!!
Where the fuck do you shop?
Over the weekend I bought:
2 smallish filet mignon: $12
Gallon of milk: $1.70
Didn't buy corn but cant imagine it's more than a few dollars. Half of what you paid. Are you importing all your food from antarctica? Maybe you should move to a different city?
You got a gallon of milk for $1.70? Did you take a time machine back to 2000?
Seriously, and filets were 1/4 lb each...
2 Ribeyes cost cost me $22
2 ears of corn $1.30
A gallon of Milk (WIC certified) $3.50
So my total was $26.80
Here we go again:
Federal Reserve Pre-News Checklist
Treasury yields Up- Check
USD Up- Check
Competing currencies Down- Check
Commodities Down-Check
Gold Down-Check-a-roony
US stocks Up-Check , good work!
Wait for the news..should be a good one
Its TRANSITORY ;)
Paper gold--thrown under the bus--as GOOG cracks $900 on its way to $1000. Too early to buy the dip in GOLD. Wait until $1050. This is a short pile-on take-down. If you think it is done by criminals, irrespective of fundamentals or long-term value, you are correct.
$960 gold and things get interesting. Just like the 1970's when it fell from $200 to $100 before going to $850.
No one would even sell at that level. Look at the HUI index, relative to the price of gold, it's at the same level it was back in 2001. The miners will go bankrupt before gold goes that low.
The bottom callers are much worse than the people they make fun of....Turk, Embry, Sinclair, etc...
Buffoonery gone wild.
Turk et al are nothing but sidewalk barkers
Really? I remember them being the only people advocating gold holdings 12 to 15 years ago.
Where were you back then?
I think we should get ahold of the e-mail addresses for all these guys and send our "thoughts" until all of these clowns simply STFU. KWN is nothing but a propaganda psy-op.
Gold price has almost nothing to do with new supply, the annual amount of which makes up less than 2% of the total stock.
COMEX and paper are the twin big-ass CPUs in the middle of this Matrix.... when* they break, it will be a sight to see.
*God, I hope it's a matter of 'when', and not 'if'.
I don't even know why you are worried, TBH.