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Producer Prices Plunge, Empire Fed Slides To First Negative Print Since January
One of these days we might just get a positive economic print, of the kind that the meandering Tepper was saying is visible everywhere now. Just not yet. Moments ago we got the releases of the May PPI and the Empire Fed, the first of which dropped -0.7%, on expectations of a -0.6% drop, the lowest MoM PPI since July 2009. driven by food and energy producer prices as economic slack continues to persist, while PPI ex food and energy dropped from a +0.2% increase in April to just 0.1%, in line with expectations. Technically, this is bullish for the E-Trade baby as it gives the Fed carte blanche to continue QEternity as long as needed.
But it was the Empire Fed index that was even more disappointing, as it crushed hopes for an increase from 3.05 to 4.00 in May, instead posting the first contractionary print since January, printing at -1.43. It gets worse when one digs through the data: New Orders dropped from 2.20 to -1.17, Shipments also slid into negative from 0.75 to -0.02, Unfilled Orders deteriorated even more from -3.41 to -6.82, Inventories contracted from -4.55 to -7.95, Prices Paid and Received both contracted, but worst of all, the Average Employee Workweek dropped from 5.68 to -1.14, meaning the collapse in the average workweek persists, and even if the BLS reports a positive print for May, the report will once again mask the declining aggregate end demand for labor.
What is worst, however, is that even the Hopium has now run out, with the future general business conditions index declining for a second consecutive month, dropping six points to 25.5. Add to this the just 1.2% expectation in increasing prices received - the lowest on record - and one can see why the US manufacturing sector is collapsing.
The May 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers declined marginally. The general business conditions index fell four points to -1.4, its first negative reading since January. The new orders index also edged into negative territory, and the shipments index fell to zero. The prices paid index declined eight points to 20.5, indicating a slowdown in selling price increases, while the prices received index was little changed at 4.6. Employment indexes were mixed, showing both a modest increase in the number of employees and a slight decline in the length of the average workweek. Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally lower, suggesting that optimism about future conditions had weakened.
In a series of supplementary survey questions, firms were asked about past and expected changes in both the prices they paid for inputs and the prices they charged their customers. The same questions had previously been asked in surveys conducted in May 2012 and in May of earlier years. Respondents to the current survey, on average, expected the prices they paid to climb by 2.8 percent—the smallest anticipated rise since May 2009.
Moreover, the average respondent anticipated an increase of just 1.2 percent in prices received—the smallest expected increase recorded since these questions were first asked in May 2007.
General Business Conditions Index Falls Below Zero
After three months of modestly positive readings, the general business conditions index fell four points to -1.4 in May, pointing to a slight deterioration in business conditions for New York manufacturers for the first time since January. Twenty-five percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 26 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index also fell below zero, declining three points to -1.2. The shipments index was little changed, holding at zero in a sign that shipments were flat. The unfilled orders index declined three points to -6.8. The delivery time index was unchanged at -3.4, and the inventories index fell three points to -8.0, suggesting a modest decline in inventory levels.
And visually:
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The future's so bright David, I gotta wear shades...
Better bring a flood light.
Here's another hedge fund manager calling for the governmnet to just start printing money to pay its bills:
Bring On The Hellicopter Money
Both of these guys are probably (with their private wealth) up to their eyeballs in hard assets.
what difference would it make? they are doing worse than that right now. the fed is buying everything that isn't nailed down and sending all the interest back to the treasury.
Green Chutes, everywhere!
/sarc/onoff/ Iforgetwhich.
This news is good. Only goes to prove that economy is in "early stages of recovery".
Economy these days is measured in eons.
David bought big before his rosey appearance at CNBS. Got exactly the response he expected. Made millions on it.
Rally Time
Is it safe?
Bullish - long e-trade babies
My eyes -- and the Empire Fed Index apparently -- have been exceptionally dishonest as of late about the economy recovery that is supposedly going on all around us.
And with Mt. Gox shut down.... Its time to hunker down.
There's as much as a 3 point dip on the S&P. Better to try to get in on that sucker while there is time.
Yeah and where the heck Silver is going now? $9? Non-stop whacking.
It can't get lower than zero.....but what then...:-0
Good for another 100 pts on the DOW!
Bubble Bernanke and the Fed are stuck buying treasuries until the US dollar blows, just like with the Yen.
Last ditch effort to print all the fundamental problems away. Like wishing on a star. A death star.
the day is coming when we all wake up to the fact that the fed is long term irrelevant
The Empire Trends Lower
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-empire-trends-lower.html
PPI Drop - The Fed Is Powerless Against Deflation
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/05/ppi-drop-fed-is-powerless-against.html
Empire numbers sucked. A couple of years ago, Gold and Silver would be in a big spike upwards. No more, nobody wants that paper shit. Stay with the real stuff, BUY PHYSICAL.
Biflation continues, unabated. And the Fed continues its policies, unfettered and unflappable.
Unfettered? Didn't we get enough of that unfettered shit from Jay "Carnival" Carney yesterday? ;)
Is this the proof of a US Manufacturing Renaissance?
Yes! He meant we go back to the 1400s, the Italian Renaissance.
Engage Warp Drive Mr. Sulu.
Full (market) speed ahead and damn the falling macro data.
Here in Pittsburgh, the only statistic that matter is 4-1.
That was the score by which the Penguins NHL team beat the Ottawa Senators in their playoff game last night.
Everything else is trivial and unimportant.
Not to mention disregarded fully by the vast majority of our citizenry.
Blackhawks RULE !!
This damages the narrative. The talk of QE exit plan is clearly silly. Q2 GDP projections are nudging down towards 1%, and this somehow means QE's job is done?
The tax increase in January and the Sequester were and are destimulative. There is no escaping that. If the GDP growth is 1% with 85B/mo printed, outright contraction looms on exit.
QE exit was always a fairytale
We'll just wake one morning to find all these people have run for their deep underground military bunkers....there's no EZ landing coming.
Outright collapse looms on exit. It looms with or without exit, but is instant upon exit. There is no way out.
The Black Swan may be political this time around. Someone big wants the Obamination out, and there are rumors that there is one more shoe to drop.
trillions of us dollars coming back home will be the breaking point, that will mean other countries are using some other form of money.
Reagan proved deficits don't matter.
Obama proved debt doesn't matter (student loans forgiveness program to be expanded under new proposal in the budget)
Bernanke is proving that currency doesn't matter
Got a book-keeping problem? just get rid of the books! Clearly we've been making it way more complicated than necessary.
RE
This will NEVER pass. It's all subterfuge.
There is no way that Wall St is going to take a loss on these loans. They will threaten to crash the market before that happens.
The seasonal emanating from '08 - '09 still reaking havoc with all the adjusted data. That said, even if you try to counter the tendency for over-stating winter / spring and under-stating spring / summer data, the rolling 12-period data is clearly deteriorating with the 12-mo average print in the Empire effectively 0. The month to month myopia of the mo-mos has clouded the fact that the YoY is atrocious, be it jobs / production / or even today's GDP #s from the great growth cauldron of Europe. Germany's YoY unadjusted GDP dropped by 1.4% (that's -1.4%) against estimates for a rise of .2%... the quarterly adjusted miss was bad enough, but the YoY is downright ugly. YoY, France / Austria / Netherland (-1.7%) / Italy (-2.3%), etc. etc. Oh yeah, and the UK's great path of growth apparently has to carve through increased unemployment.
Where's the morning Bill Gross tweet? T10s are down 1 whopping basis point Bill. You better jump in before the Fed. does.
More like 4 bps.
U.S. 10-Year 1.973 1.982 1.985 1.950 [ -0.009 ] -0.45% 13:00:40
US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield Analysis - USGG10YR - Bloomberg
It closed at 1.98 yesterday. It's 1.94 now on Bloomberg. I don't know what you're looking at, but I will for sure not criticize you because the fluctuations have gotten big and maybe you saw a 1.97 for a few seconds.
I just sent 2 quotes to you, so you didn't think I was doubting you. Thanks for your post. Nothing is as it seems these days. :)
Translating Tepper from yesterday, "Hold my bag, please"
that's illegal in most airports
The TSA holds a lot of peoples' bags in the airports.
They were actually expecting a 1 point jump? That's lolz-y.
I think I need some E-Trade Diapers.
wait!!!wait!!! let me fix this growth issue:
i promise to contibute 5 billion dollars to my employees retirement fund this year.........
...that should be good for a few bumps up in gdp............................oh...and everybody should be doing the patriotic thing today.....download itunes songs.....that will also help our gdp!!!....MUST...... HAVE........ GROWTH!!!!!...
Here is the strategy of the central bankers.
Speech from Bernanke
~The Fed research team has noticed that many times a tail wagging dog seems to show electric brain impulses and other behavrior characteristics that strongly imply that the dog is happy.~ (People which make a living at trading go. No fucking kidding!!!!)
Bernanke continues
~We have therefore decided to build a machine with new technology that will automatically vigorously wag the dog´s tail. It should result in an unlimited amount of happiness for this dog if we increase the speed of the wagging in an unlimited fashion~
~In order to operate and make the machine work however, we need energy and we have decided to shave first and then burn the dog´s hair (bond holders). ~ It should be of a minor consequences, since teh weather is warm right now. Winter is in the long run, and in the long run, as Keynes famously said we are all dead. So if the dog is freezing to death in winter, it is of a minor problem as demonstrated by Keynes. In the meantime the dog will have according to our new machinery and model a ~hell~ of a good time.~
SUMMARY
Collect the shower of money with stocks in US, Japan (better) while you can and then convert that quickly to assets nailed to the ground.
Can someone give me the link to the POMO schedule ? thanks -
Shorting Stocks On These POMO Days Will Be Hazardous To Your Health | Zero Hedge
damn - only a measly billion today - WTF -
Can someone give me the link to the POMO schedule ? thanks -
It just doesn't matter!!
It just doesn't matter!!
It just doesn't matter!!
It just doesn't matter!!
It just doesn't matter!!
It just doesn't matter!!
It just doesn't matter!!
It just doesn't matter!!
It just doesn't matter!!
It just doesn't matter!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM4jJc8w4H0
we are heading to free silver for everybody....LOL
free paper silver!!!!! yay!!!
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
For anybody that trades grains - Talked with a Kansas farm buddy of mine and the winter wheat crop is projected to be substandard this year; a lot of winter kill and drought; gets worse the farther west you go.
Longest, coldest winter I can recall in the intermountain states, and I can recall many.
If folks on ZH would just lean back, or better stand up, and think for a moment, they'd be in farmland. Dollars have no meaning. Gold has meaning only inside people's heads. The value was invented.
Calories are real and 10 years from now will be the only thing that matters.
Food, Shelter and Water. Oh, sorry, you were saying? :-)
Happiness is just around the corner...another short squeeze imminent. Buy, buy, buy moar
Stop Trading.
There is no market, and you know it. There is only HFT.
Buy farmland. Do you really think 10 years from now you'd regret that?
a bit late to the party, huh? I believe farmland is also in a major bubble. You'd be buying high, sorta like precious metals right now.
I moved into treasuries in april. They're in a bubble, too. But to me, it's about capital preservation. I figure they're the best terd in the bowl. Stocks are going to correct. Precious metals historically have followed the market down in a correction, so i'm out of them. I missed their rocket up, anyway.
I'm just looking for the best place to hide when reality finally exerts itself. Note, the last place I want to be is in Euro bonds. In a normal world those assets would have to return 15%+ for "investors" to consider them, and their in the 4-5% range. The CB's have truly destroyed the markets. Run and hide.
Farmlan has been going up 10% annually recently. It's sorta bubbly. Cash rent maybe 5% of the price of the land, if that.
Wish I'd bought ten years ago but ten years ago my priority was getting out of debt.
The bots have taken over, all is well. That is all.
Average Employee Workweek dropped from 5.68 to -1.14, meaning the collapse in the average workweek persists
Who's got the acid?
Not many green months since mid-2011 on that bottom chart. Maybe red is new green or something. Buy stocks!
And the IDIOITIC FED print more money to drive interest down...without realizing its knock on effect. Bernanke doesn't believe in capitalism.... Which is what would fix this if the government...didn't own 90% of the mortgage market...and Wall Street hadn't carved out every single tax loophole. The SYSTEM is broken...and Bubble FED continues its failure after failure!