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Visualizing The Taper
When the noisy-as-you-like-prone-to-epic-revisions non-farm-payrolls figure hit on May 3rd, it seems we crossed the streams. From a regime where Fed liquidity was expected to be large for long, discussions started to turn to good-is-bad and Fed 'Tapering' conversations began. Across every asset class, prices began to shift in the direction one would assume based on a less expansive monetization scheme by the Fed. But there is one market; a market incapable of believing reality; that remains in its own world of hope and unicorns. The US equity market has seen one of its best runs ever during this post-NFP period in the face of the rest of the world's pricing in a tapering.
US equities post-NFP amid growing Taper chatter...
and every other major asset class that has QE-sensitivity... looks like it is pricing in the start of a Taper...
Though who is right is anyone's guess (but it seems some bargains across asset classes if the growth story in stocks is to be believed)...
Charts: Bloomberg
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where's that butt on fire icon?
DOW to 16,000 in the next few weeks at this pace. Everyones going to be millionaires! A big MAC will cost you $25 but you'll be a millionaire!
1,666.66 may be magic number for S&P as 666 was in 2009
It's also a major fibonacci level ($1,666)
Also, a better trade than shorting SPY is to buy VXX. When we get a market correction (yes it is coming), it's likely to quadruple. Also VXX has been holding up quite well as the SPY keeps on surging higher. Sooner or later VXX is going to explode.
I have exactly the same thought. I suppose it's like a Luciferian insider joke.
Skip forward to 4:00....
"This market has the possibility of testing up to the 423.6% level at $1,666"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bz-huLoslbY
Some douchebag on CNBS just said that "yes the Fed is boosting stock prices but there is nothing to fear because when they decide to sell it will be a good environment to buy".
Ok, so let me get this straight, the Fed can drive to DOW to 50,000 and then will start selling when the economy can support DOW 50,000.
That will happen the day after never.
AAPL plunging almost 4% today.
Will they get their "MoJo" back? Samsung is taking over the Asian market and American buyers are pretty tapped out....Barry never came thru with that $3,000 Thingamajig money he promised.
Oh yeah, as for China...Big Trouble ahead as Americans have no room left in their closets for more 90% discounted sweaters, blouses, belts, and on and on.....stuff Hecho in China (or Bangladesh or any other place). Australia is already in Big Trouble for same similar reasons and cutting its rates....house prices sinking there, jobless up, etc. as the PRC slows. No need for so many of those $185,000/year truck drivers in NW iron ore/coal country.
June Gloom< What happens to the $ when the markets correct?
Does the $ sell off, since it's being treated like a risk currency? Usually the $ is a safe haven play when the markets get nasty. If the $ sells off, does everyone pile back into risk currencies? [aud gbp euro] These markets are ass backwards.
Treasury's don't have a clue!! Which way!? Which way!? LOL..
The level of distortion, across the board, is enormous. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed. increased their pumping, with all the scandals happening right now. ( keeping the natives at bay)
I'm interested to see if the influx of investments and cash to our domestic companies launches a renaissance equal to the monetary infusions.
With this level of contribution I expect Back to the Future's estimations of our technology to actualize sooner rather than later.
Hover boards here we come?
Or bust and collapse like the twilight of the roaring twenties.
You decide.
If you get robbed do you expect the thief to turn around and create productivity and innovation with their(your) newfound wealth?
Or do you expect it to go towards hookers and blow?
You decide. (not really)
I've heard hookers can be quite innovative and that blow will increase productivity (if only temporarily)
:)
If Ben tapers, it can only mean that the economy is saved, employment is saved, and happy days are here again. BULLISH.
Watch out for Fed underestimating market forces. Bullish with stop loses. :D
These fund managers have a lot they need to unload at these prices. Sell as others bid it up. He's very smart on talking it up while unloading and turning the trades around in the other direction.
They have so much crap to unload now at high prices. They need the time and the momentum.
One fund manager is selling everthing not nailed down.
What's the saying...... Sell when everyone is buying.
The market is ramping most of 1% a day. Incredible. Insanity. It reminds me of 1999. The crash/bust is inevitable.
sorry....doesn't necessarily follow; "this time it's different" no joke. NEVER in history 100% rigged & controlled by money masters.... fundies & techs are N/A. I seriously have NO clue what happens
like i said yesterday. BACK TO 1999... almost all stocks are at 52w highs. lol everytime i open some stock sites every few minutes some alerts pop up: new 52w high - new 52w high 1y return 180% LOOOOOL
this is a debt driven rally. nothing more. and to be fair... who in their right minds buys at 52w highs anyways.
i hope i can see this house of cards collapse and then i will watch cnbc all day long AHAHAHA
fed and financial experts: "OH WE DIDNT SEE THAT COMING"... we thought the growth was sustainable... :O
he stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players.
The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
The markets will fall only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls
OR
When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35345.html
The funny part is how much flack metals bulls recieve, and yet anyone to me whom stacks metals also has equal amounts of cash as well. So it is funny to me when the media starts with the negativity towards the precious metals. It is commonly forgotten, that their are alot of peeps in the middle just like myself, whom are just trying to protect their hyde against the current cycle of idiocy that seems to exist in people.
And yet, you only see extremes of behavior expressed and never just the middle ground in the MSM. I think any centrist physical stacker is also like anyone else, they like lower prices wherever they are allowed, even if it means a decline in the value of the metals they hold, simply because the trends in idiocy show no sign of decline.
the decline in PM is good for anyone wanting to buy more. And there are many doing just that, judging by the exploding demand. Lets see how long does the stock last. My bet is that some time in near future we will be reading about some discovery about silver jewelry being dangerous for the health. More and more I am sure that the world is just the way it should be, run by the power hungry politicians and their backers, masses half awake only, and some smart but desperate souls trying hard to invent a way to get away from this planet in time.
WTF is going on in WTI? Today's report showed legible reduction in crude with distillates building massively.
Bingo! What does that telll you?
Sure doesn't happen in a booming economy.
Hence why CNBS is talking up the bids and fund managers are selling to the other bag holders.
Take a look at this?
USD Gasoline Inventories 2.588M -0.780M -0.910M WTF?
Fascinating. Yet purely illogical Caotain..
"...that remains in its own world of hope and unicorns."
this is a bullshit comment. the 'market' knows the fed is pumping the market. there isnt any hope or belief that this is an improving economy.
Tepper, Taper, toilet paper
up until the infamous tweet the word "taper" was not in the MSM's lexicon
much like everyone's favorite lie "green shoots"
now everyone is talking 'taper"
fuck taper
call it what it is Fed marketing speak
Yeah, but it's probably programmed into the algos as a key negative term now.
Here is a headline that sums things up in this bizarro world:
"U.S. Stocks Rise on Stimulus Bets as Manufacturing Falls"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/u-s-stock-futures-decline-as-eu...
What a joke.
"more easing"
laxatives in the water supply?
I propose a survey:
For those conditioned to BTFD, what S&P % decrease will it take before they finally capitulate and stop buying? What S&P % decrease before they actually start selling?
hate the term 'taper' when referring to Uncle Ben and QE because it evokes a shitty image thanks to some prior ZH commentators
A lot of the traders I know have already taken profits. Some of them want to get back in. (sellers remorse)
I just look at them like they're fucking Martians.
I am one of those Martians.
Have at it Fonz. May the Schwartz be with you.
Have at what? It's over Yen. Any money that I have in cash right now for clients is going to stay there until they violently attack me, which is coming. I am not doing this again. I've been on this ride before.
If....IF we get a 10% drop, and stabilize, I have to put that money to work. I have no choice.
The irony is, if TPTB want to get retail back in this market, that is all they need to do. 10% drop and recovery and cash will come roaring off ths sidelines. Then they will have the sheep in there and they can dump it on them.
What we are watching right now is some crazy craxk up boom.
I didn't realize the zombies were in control Fonz. My bad :-( I just trade for myself and close friends & family.
Some of the zombies are my friends and family. They are not in control yet but I keep looking in the rearview mirror as I drive and I think I hear talk of a mutiny.
Fonz, when you referrred to yourself as a Martian, I thought you were one of the sheep. I now realize you're the Shepherd. ;-)
at this point I am just a guy who somehow got behind the wheel of a car with some people in it that I care about a lot. The car is heading downhill with no brakes and no airbags. The irony is the people in the car keep yelling "Go Faster" and we keep passing by some more people who actually want to get in. Insanity.
You're a good man Fonz. Your obituary will treat you well...
Dennis Miller once said "death is a natural thing that happens to each of us and should be embraced....my death? Greatest fucking tragedy in the history of the earth"
I feel similarly.
I am living it everyday knowing that my clients want part of this ride..... It's hard work trying to control people's greed. I always ask them what their recovery time might be. Blank stares... Good for a couple of days of quiet. Oh, fuck you Bernake...
Check Dow and SP charts back to 74. Gravity still exists and oil is a hell of a short
anyone know what's going on with BMY today?
I can't believe some of the moves I am seeing.
Goldman's Cohn on CNBS now. You know this guy is hooked into the Fed. Just said well the Fed is going to try little (taper) maneuvers here and there and see what happens.
Translation: The FED is going to target their enemies for economic destruction and then let us buy their assets for pennies on the dollar.
The rest of the world maybe pricing in a tapering in their markets.... but they are also pricing in a possibloe confiscation in their markets.
They can confiscate cash and screw around with T bonds, but they can't confiscate US equities. One of the reasons is that the CEO's of the publicly traded companies are the biggest political donors to the left wing thieving confiscation gnomes.
"US Equities are the only game in town"....so says I, Ben Bernanke.
It's really not that hard folks.
Don't you all remember back when you were kids and the schoolyard bullies would con the little kids into giving up their lunch money for some worthless p.o.s. that the bullies said was SO valuable?
Nothing EVER changes.
Isn't a "Tapir" a wild South American pig ?
Tapirs are actually more closely related to horses and rhinoceroses.
Thank you for the clarity Mr Micrometer. But the pig seemed to be a more benefitting animal for the description.
I couldn't help myself, man.
I work in vertebrate systematics.
No worries...hehe..... vertebrae systematics ? I know a good few politicians that could a vertebrae implant.
Rising dollar is good for exports hey, .... oh.
fast and bulbous, also tapered
(Dan Vliet)
Get that ramp going, Tepper needs to sell some stock.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-blame-game-leads-to-qe-end-game-2013-05-15?dist=countdown
Instead of firing a shot, the Fed has decided to use smoke signals. The first was the May 8 remark by Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher. The second — and more important — was Jon Hilsenrath's report in the Wall Street Journal which hit after market close last Friday. Mr. Hilsenrath reported that the Federal Reserve has been working on a strategy to taper back its quantitative easing program. Mr. Hilsenrath is widely viewed as being the Fed's mouthpiece, so it's quite likely that this second smoke signal was carefully timed to give investors an opportunity to process the information, to find out what is and is not true about what the Fed has planned, and finally, get used to the idea of life without quantitative easing. Through this carefully-orchestrated series of events, Dr. Bernanke was able to turn the blame game into the end game.
As luck would have it, the first trading day after Jon Hilsenrath's article brought a surprising report on April retail sales from the Commerce Department. The report disclosed that retail sales had unexpectedly increased by 0.1% in April, despite economists' expectations of a 0.3% decline. Not only was there some good news to offset Hilsenrath's bad news, but the Commerce Department report sent a ray of hope to those who were ready to accept Richard Fisher's contention that the Fed could claim "mission accomplished" and that it was finally time to do so.
What happens from here is anyone's guess. It's like Warren Buffet's "good movie" analogy — we don't know how it's going to end, so we need to watch closely.
However, so far this week, major U.S. markets have continued their non-stop melt up into overbought territory with yet another record day. A quick look at the chart of the S&P 500 shows the parabolic nature of this last upward move and the growing possibility of a blow-off top.
The S&P 500 is now approximately 12% above its 200-day moving average, and a gap this large was last seen back in March of 2000, just before the dot-com crash. Will history repeat or only rhyme, or in Yogi Berra's famous words, will we see "déjà vu all over again"?
Stock indices cannot keep going up forever, contrary to what you may have been told by your favorite television stock market commentator, and with the S&P 500 now up nearly 13% year to date, the index is on track for annual gains in excess of 25%.
Perhaps Bill Gross is right with his Tuesday Tweet: "Never have investors reached so high in price for so low a return. Never have investors stooped so low for so much risk."
http://www.cdhowe.org/pdf/Commentary_381.pdf
Raising interest rates is never popular, but keeping rates low for too long builds in pervasive problems for the economy. Interest rates in nominal terms are at record low levels and negative in real terms, even though Canada’s GDP is only slightly below capacity. At the same time, there are symptoms of distortions created by low interest rates in financial markets: unfunded pensions, losses by insurance companies, excessive household debt, high house prices, and a bias toward high-yielding equities. Extremely low interest rates mean that the Bank of Canada has a long way to go before they approach a neutral setting. The time has come for the Bank to start raising interest rates gradually to lessen the continued build-up of financial imbalances.