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Fed Unleashes Another Taper Hint... Or Not
Last week it was Fed's WSJ lapdog hinting at a tapering. Now it is up to the Fed's own John Williams to provide an even stronger hint at what may be coming as soon as this summer. From Bloomberg:
- WILLIAMS SAYS FED MAY REDUCE QE IN SUMMER, HALT BY YEAR END
However, promptly following this is the following headline which we can only hope has a typo in it:
- WILLIAMS: UNEMPLOYMENT WON'T FALL BELOW 6.5% UNTIL MID-2105 (er, sic?)
And just to confuse everyone, as the Fed enjoys doing, here is the conclusion:
- WILLIAMS SAYS SLOWING QE WOULDN'T MEAN TIGHTENING IN POLICY
Bottom line: nothing will change.
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Fuck You John Williams
2105? Yeah that's the only honest forecast I've ever seen out of the Fed.
Tapering infinite money creation still results in infinite money creation.
Like a "rolling stop" at a stop sign.
It's like Don Draper describing margarine;
"It’s morning. We know because we see the rooster crow. A farmer’s wife sets pancakes on the kitchen table. She puts a pat of margarine on top, and sets the dish down next to the yellowest fried eggs, a loaf of homemade bread, and a beading pitcher of heavy cream. Syrup pours. A smile comes over their Dorothea Lange faces."
(h/t wired)
Yeah, well it's still fucking margarine, not butter.....
They'll just hint at a tapering, then when the market falls enough, retract the statement.
Criminal Market Management 101.
The effect is twofold:
1) Cause a market correction.
2) Get people to pile into bonds, saving the Federal Govt from having to make further spending cuts.
--I just can't believe Bill Gross missed this in 2011.
Edit: The ONLY was this could possibly end for reals is when people stop piling into bonds during a correction. Eventually, they'll pick a designated stock to ramp during an overall correction, say another AAPL for instance. While the broader market sells off, everyone piles into AAPL or TSLA, ramping it up 1000% in a few days, then selling it off when the market reaches a local trough. No more need for bonds for "safety" may be the true end for bonds. Just a thought.
Jawbone that shit you stupid motherfucker! Maybe someday you can get credit for pissing in the wind the way berstanke does you sack of maggot shit.
You can jawbone my dick. And go back to your HuffPo hate boards where you belong.
Think about what has happened this week folks. Rumor of tapering a week ago. The market is ramping like crazy during the week. You can just see the boyz trying to unload. Then another rumor today to try and cool off the market. I bet the boyz won't let it happen. They'll ramp it again trying to extract every fucking nickle they can into OPEX tomorrow. This market is totally scripted and you are the target of Psychological manipulation. Don't play. Cash out now!
What do you mean? Like you see gold and I see dirt??
This whole market is dirt. I'm saying the Fed won't stop before everything blows up. The blow up is the only thing that will stop these bubbles.
plausible i guess, partof the problem is the fed is always referring to lagging targets in their analysis which give them the excuse to be behind the curve. They also said QE would create jobs, so credibility is not their strong point.
I guess they'll have figured out that "full employment" enslavement thing by 2105.
Yes, but a scant 7 years after that, the Elder Race will return:
We have assumed control...we have assumed control...we have assumed control. (fade distorted Lifeson guitar rift to end)
They obviously have no fucking clue on what to do.
I just wish he would go back to composing Star Wars soundtracks and stay the fuck out of economics.
I'd like to lock him in a room with three wookies and a horny ewok.
So what happens when oil shoots to $200 when war spreads from Syria?
tapering QE doesn't mean tightening? WTF williams, are you that stupid? not even your bullshit makes sense any more.
The Bernank: "...You don't want the truth because deep down in
places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that printer, you need me on
that printer!..."
Which hedge fund manager is going to appear in the news tomorrow morning to say that they find these valuations to be CHEAP and now is a great time to buy GOOG before it hits $1,000?
I dunno, Becky...why don't we spin the wheel and see whose name comes up? Or maybe try Mr. Magic 8-ball this time 'round?
Accidentally read that as "Tragic 8-ball". This shitshow's warping my mind...
The 8-ball always says Buy Moar!
Abby Joseph Cohen is so worn out her genitals sound like a Basso profundo in the wind, so it won't be her unless they want to use her for secret code for a market top.
a $300B company selling at 4X sales? Too cheap if you ask me.
goog is so setup for a gap down island reversal. come on oh god of stocks, hear my prayers.
Transparency
This ride is almost over. It looks like the wealthy have extracted enough on the way up and have set the table for the way down.
........ "extracted enough"
First rule of fed club; enough is never enough.
Not until we get to Memorial Day and then we can just show back up after Labor Day.
There will be a fortune made by some on the ride down. Unfortunately the little guy will be losing theirs as is always the case. Why else by law can't you short in your retirement accounts?
I'm getting really, really fed up with all this crap.
Hint here, hint there. They KNOW they're fucked one way or the other.
DavidC
Don't hit it long. But don't leave it short.
Yeah, these fucking amateurs need a hot cup of STFU.
Absent wanting to intentionally crash everything, the Fed CANNOT stop QE. It's just math at this point.
Only question is if they've gotten the fall guy ready.
A market crash will happen either way. QE will be unnecesary for a while as Treasuries will once again be considered safer. Once the shock wears off. Well you know rinse and repeat.
Tapering will be the signal. Of the turn. Not an official tightening, just not as much easing.
When they do tighten it will be in small increments. Like 25 bps. But the bond mavens will front run them and that's where they'll lose control. They'l raise 25 and the market may jam 75. Then the munis and corporates and MBS and junk will push further. New issuance outside the Treasuries will all hurry to get in and that will push even higher yields.
Even if inflation is low and unemployment high, not to Fed targets, it won't matter. The markets will unhinge from the Fed when they lose control and it will move very very quickly. We will watch history as the financial world economy spins away.
Tapering will be the signal...yes, the code-word to all of the insiders to get physical and get the heck out of Dodge before they crash this puppy.
BoJ & ECB have Ben's back, just look at PIIGS yields of late. Draghi especially, given the politica talk of decreasing ECB balance sheet being bad in the current situation.
How about next week?
And I am not joking at all.
I have a lot going on next week. Can we just push it to tomorrow?
you are freaking hilarious
ekm, this would tend to indicate that you are on the right track:
http://www.longislandpress.com/2013/05/14/u-s-military-power-grab-goes-into-effect/
They rule, they always did, but always ruling in the shadows
A lot of option activity indicate September is more likely. But it's coming.
It depends on the orders.
I think they'll pull a Navy Seals like attack.
could you elaborate?
who is "they", and what constitutes a Navy Seals like attack?
It was metaphor.
I meant that the Fed will come out of the blue and declare end of QE quite abruptly.
"They" is the White House + Congress committee overseeing the FED who actually make the final decision.
No chance of it coming out of the blue imo. But we shall see. I might also add that Blackrock has been asking(telling Ben) for the QE to end and that should tell us all something is likely coming.
understood - thank you!
Assasinate Assad. Nah. I was talking stock options as in derivative trading.
I think ekm is as well. As soon as the fed is position with the banks the way they need to be, it's just over in an instant. There will be no frontrunning and forecasting on the way down. Anyone caught on the wrong side wil just be decapitated.
The market disruption would be massive and they would have to think they can manage that outcome. Not sure about their ability to manage the free fall but these guys are not market traders that decide these things.
The intent is to destroy the sacrificial lambs, not to manage.
agreed completely. This is why you should not play unless you are prepared to lose it all. There is no managing. There was never any interest in managing what happens next.
Let us say we have bear market ensue. Agree that a bear market is a 20% or more drop off the highs. But, lets say it drops 40%, which would be extraordinary, that would still leave the Dow near 9 to 10K. From which to likely begin climbing again. That's what I see coming near term and I would think that is what the Fed would consider ok. Banks recapitalized to withstand the crash and Treasuries once again highly sought after near term because of their implied safety. Rinse Repeat. Forget armeggedon because you can't plan for that anyway.
I don't know about armegedon but I think 40% is the right number and I think it will happen over a matter of 2-3 days.
What happens after that is debatable. My guess is QE6. Massive. I just don't know that the market drinks the kool aid this time.
The number can be made 6.5 or 7.2 or 8.3 or 10.2...or whatever. The real number is meaningless.
All these CHEESEPOPEBUCK "hucksters" remind me of the cowboy in the saloon 'SHOOTIN' at the foot of the some ignorant bastard & tellin' him to dance...
~~~
CHEESEPOPEBUX TO INFINITY... Bitchez!
I'm afraid to google this at work.
If you're talking about "CHEESEPOPEBUX"... the search will come up null...
~~~
They don't exist... They're only a figment of the imagination of one francis_sawyer...[a person of fiction, whose IDEAS & OBSERVATIONS are stuff of fiction as well]...
Once upon a time, they were a mixed league SOFTBALL TEAM name [bent on igniting 'hilarity']... 25 years later... Oddly, they produce the same response...
Gentlemen, what we have here is a criminal syndicate. These sons of bitches speak out of both sides of their assholes.
Interesting timing with respect to ES. Tomorrow's $5.75 bln POMO will soften the blow.
I think the Jacobins are winning in an interesting way. :)
http://d3l2rivt3pqnj2.cloudfront.net/highres_images/easyart/3/0/304631.jpg
"WILLIAMS: UNEMPLOYMENT WON'T FALL BELOW 6.5% UNTIL MID-2105 (er, sic?)"
Wouldn't it be nice if these guys actually lived in the real world.
Wouldn't it be nice if these guys expired.
I'm at the point of how much to we have to pay you to leave?
Sorry...didn't know I was offending you.
(oh, you mean...)
LOL! I did not mean you-Mayhem_korner. I was referring to Williams. My bad, should have make that clear.
Just havin' some fun. Friends tell me I have a fetish for girls who need bags over their heads.
mayhem might be easy...but he is not cheap....
Rule 37.
One year of your salary, and you have to have enough to live on for at least one year will be fine by me. How soon can you pay?
it will change. there will be lots more. volume 5 right now volume 8 by November.
It's the Katy Perry Fed announcement:
"You're hot and you're cold..."
Did Katy Perry really say that?
Wow!
I'm impressed.
My turds taper near the end, too.
But then comes the really messy part of the job.
Leon Cooperman is now bullish on gold and silver....via the GLD and SLV.
WHAT?
It was 2008 and $692 the last time I saw anything like the overall bearishness we are seeing now in gold and silver.
That was before stocks crashed and QE even started. And the situation is much, much worse now.
I suspect the two are connected, though this time for different reasons.
Last time is was banks selling AU to stave off an implosion. This time it's bankers loading up on discounted AU for after the implosion.
This William S. Kaye interview is one of the best I've ever heard. He absolutely destroys the gold bear case being put forward right now.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/14_William_Kaye.html
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/15_William_Kaye__Part_II.html
I quit smoking cigarettes 1.5 years ago.
Now I only smoke when I drink.
I only smoke natural cigarettes.
so it's okay!
Great it's good to see an ambigious company using the same mindset as someone "addicted" to something.
The problem is that you drink constently
It helps me understand political, economical, and any other facet of our glorious world.
of course QE will end.. the election is over, Ben is done next year and the ships about to hit the sand for someone else to deal with.
They are not intentionally obfuscating, they just have no fucking clue what they are doing nor its impact in the real world.
@RSloane
The technical term for this in my neck of the woods is, "Talking out of your ass."
It's no accident that the wealthy made out like bandits before these guys acted like clueless idiots and brought he whole thing down.
They have to end QE4 so that they can unleash QE5 - Buying Equities Directly through FRBNY E*Trade account
Want an example of now and then?
The dotcom bubble
L.A. Gear, Cabbage Patch Dolls, Pop Rocks, mullets, and leg warmers.
(beat that hand)
http://uservideos.smashits.com/video/p4jYopIN8oA/David-Cassidy-Danny-Bon...
<<< Partridge Family Bus is the bomb
<<< Scooby's Mystery Machine is the ultimate driving machine
Call
I have New Coke, Milli Vanilli, parachute pants, members only jackets and New Kids on the Block
Pepsi Clear, Vanilla Ice, stone washed jeans, boat shoes, and aviator shades.
ouch.
Vanilla Ice
I guess that pot goes to the clairvoyant chimp.
(the Rip Van Winkle thing was pure, dood...)
I thought it would compress more.
Tapering down the taper talk. Those feckin tapirs are really hard to pin down in the South American rain forests, ya can barely see 'em.
bah humbug, throw some pixi dust in there too Mr williams.
GDP projected for Q2 is 1%.
The Fed's mandate is not unemployment. It is employment. They are doing a very poor job with the LPR.
With 1% growth, how can they stop QE?
they can't , instead of taper it will be TURBO!!!!
We have the largest POMO day for the whole month of May tmrw spending betweent 4.75-5.75 billion. To me this was an announcement to shake out some weak hands because the exuberance of POMO tmrw would of been too ridiculous. It probably will still be ridiculous. I bet this thing bounces back into the close.
blah blah blah yak yak yak yadda yadda yadda
Now look at markets!
Nothing like a little stoopid monkey commentary to jack up uncertainty, trash stocks and give bonditos a bid.
My kinda confusion.
Where these ding-a-lings been getting lessons?
Diesel-bloom and Co.?
He can always get a job with Joe and Becky
They are becoming more and more desperate. Implosion coming, get ready!
I think there is one difference between the current asset bubble and the previous ones of recent vintage. I think Benny knows that the "nobody could've seen it coming" defense won't fly this time. Too much "bubble talk" has made it into even the mainstream media this time around while the bubble is still unfolding. Will that make a difference? I don't know. Probably too late anyway.
It's monetary deflation at home, but high prices from hyper-inflaton abroad (too many dollars over seas), the worst of all possible outcomes if you don't have money to burn.
When things become serious, you have to taper.
Yup. Sounds familiar.
Bottom line, after numerous closed door sessions the Fed has decided to change the name of QE to something else.
Ah, so mid 2015 is when Hell freezes over. Was wondering about that one.
These guys would have a hard time beating out a box of donuts for highest IQ.
Their just cock teases.
The last tool coming out of fed's tool box is verbal threat. Yes, stop all QEs, stop ZIRP, stop PPT see how real recovery looks like.
Nothing will Change until Change happens,
usually when all the stimulus addicts least expect it. (vexed VIX)
The Fed can't keep on pumping 85 billion each month into Twist without a japanese consequence !
It is simply not possible, to do that without serious damage to the World economy.
The latest Country hitting skid-row is Australia.
All the figures were fudged by the Gov and now the Bullshit is coming home to roost.
As a German, I am a big believer in Austerity.
That's how I saved my own Business throughout the GFC after Sep 2008 Lehman -
by having NO Debt and cutting spending to the bone !
People just got too used to the endless QE and trying to solve the Debt Problem
by taking on more Debt.
This is just Bullshit.
Remember Margin Calls ?
Remember irrational exuberance and the sudden shock you get
when you are caught by the Fed and his "tools" with your Pants down ?
Of course not !
People have a shorter attention span than a Goldfish,
that's flipped out of the "unlimited" QE fish-bowl..
Change will come suddenly and surprise all those suffering from Amnesia...
Memory will come back with a sudden jolt -
Panik and Fear among thousands of Deers, caught in the headlights.
never to mention all the sitting Ducks getting squashed
in the mad rush for the emergency - exits...
flash-crash anyone ?
ei ei ei ei ei....
wr;)
http://news.yahoo.com/dells-profit-slides-79-percent-seeks-private-20122...
If a real tapering occurs, it will ge tmuch mouch worse.
Seems they are getting a little nervous about the market divergence from reality. Bens monster is getting a bit out of control. Its all virtual paper momo bullshit.
Abolish the FED. Jail Loyd BankFeind.