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Gold Demand In One Chart: Physical vs ETF
China's demand for gold jumped 20% to 294 tonnes in the first quarter of 2013, while global gold demand overall slid 13% thanks to the dramatic rotation of demand from paper to physical. Chinese demand in gold bars and coins grew to 109.5 tonnes - more than double the five-year quarterly average of 43.8 tonnes. Central banks added 109.2 tonnes of gold to their reserves in Q1 2013, the ninth consecutive quarter of net purchases. But it was the Q1 ETF outflows of 176.9 tonnes, equating to a 7% decline in total gold ETF holdings that obscured the strong rise in investment for gold bars and coins at the retail level. In the face of the huge 'paper' gold ETF outflows, 'physical' gold demand surged to its highest in 18 months...
And direct from the WGC showing Q1 demand breakdown:
More from the WGC:
Overall total global demand for gold in Q1 2013 was 963t, down 19% from Q4 2012.
Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment at the World Gold Council commented:
“The price drop in April, fuelled by non-physical moves in the market, proved to be the catalyst for a surge of buying that has left many retailers short of stock and refineries introducing waiting lists for deliveries. Putting this into context, sales of bars and coins, jewellery and consumption in the technology sector still make up 81% of the market.
“What these figures show is that even before the events of April, the fundamentals of the gold market remain robust with growing demand in India and China, central banks consistently adding gold to their reserves and strong buying of investment products such as gold bars and coins.”
The key findings from the report are as follows:
• Total demand in China totalled 294t in the first quarter, a rise of 20% on the same quarter last year, as the economy continued to pick up from the downturn experienced in the second half of 2012. Of that figure, jewellery demand in the quarter was a record 185t, up 19% on last year, while bar and coin investment was 110t, rising by 22% from last year.
• The Indian market also demonstrated a continued appetite for gold. Total demand was 257t, up 27% on the same quarter last year. Retail investment was up 52% while jewellery was up 15% on Q1 last year.
• Q1 2013 was the seventh consecutive quarter in which central banks acquired more than 100t of gold, and the ninth consecutive quarter in which central banks have been net purchasers as they diversify their portfolios. Central bank net purchases were 109t in Q1 2013, although the figure was 5% lower than the purchases a year ago.
• ETFs saw a net outflow of 177t in the quarter. By contrast there were strong inflows into other forms of investment: bar and coin demand was 378t, 10% higher than last year.
Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment, at the World Gold Council commented further:
“Gold-backed ETFs, which made up 6% of gold demand in 2012, have seen some holders, primarily in the US, collect profits and move into equities. While gold ETF holdings are down, this has been balanced by 378t of investment in bars and coins, an increase of 10% on the same period last year, and up 12% on Q4 2012.
“Overall, the long-term appetite for investment remains strong, demonstrated by the continued demand for bars and coins.”
Source: World Gold Council
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cocky spocky
But the transfer of the phantom premium is underway in earnest. ETF gold is overvalued and may very well continue to crash...meantime, the physical product will continue to strengthen in the secondary markets.
Paper is the secondary market.
Physical is the primary market.
Just sayin.
What price is plastered all over the world - paper or physical? What is the primary market for owning a stake in a corporation - paper claim or direct investment?
Think about it. Physical being the primary market will be the case again, but it isn't right now.
Sooner or later they will be forced to let the paper price rise to match the physical world. If they don't people will be demanding delivery at the paper price only to find out it isn't there and will be force to settle in fiat. That's when all hell will break loose in the markets.
Not really. I think that is the plan, to default at a low price and settle at a much lower price. Once all the paper is settled cheaply the the REAL price will be announced much higher but none will be available.
Not sure Dr. I think they may be discounting to lighten the sting of a whole lot of unseen repatriating going on. But I'm convinced that they know the jig is up and they want to make physical gold "appear" as unattractive as possible. Their only tool to do so is to manufacture a crash in the paper gold. It's all going to pop and get ugly - they may be just playing the pre-crash allocation game.
Just an alternate POV.
Paper gold's low price is Fed's way of confiscating.....be careful of boating incidents!
Gold shops are void of buyers in the USA. Walk into one. We're it not for asian demand, price would be falling even more.
The us market is insignificant compared to the rest of the world. Our real wealth is benig drained, all that will be left here is worthless paper...
Ok. I am a gold buyer and local coin shops in USA are empty. That's where one obtains physical gold. All I said is that without Asian demand for physical, price would be falling more so than it already has.
If the Bulls scored more than the Heat last night, the series wouldn't be over. Wow, I like this game!
You're kinda right and kinda wrong Magnum. i was in yesterday buying silver rounds. You're right, nobody was in there buying like it was back in April when everything was batshit crazy. I paid $27.5 CDN/oz. its the lowest price I've ever paid for the rounds since I started stacking. The dealer and I had a good chat. While he admitted there were no buyers, he also emphasized that there were no sellers either and haven't been for some time. He indicated that the premium will eventually fall (its kind of like gas prices - quick to go up, slow to come down). He said that while the demand for gold appears inelastic (especially against COMEX), he contended that the propensity to hold it, is not as strong. Weak hands, as he called them, are a part of the initial demand frenzy and sooner or later they come back to sell, since they bought perhaps for quick gains, investment (rather than as a hedge), or they sell because they actually need the cash. I think the majority of buyers at these levels, or levels lower or higher, are buying for long term holds, however, he definitely admitted that there are some who are trading PMs as if they were stocks - largely because, as he said, they don't really understand PMs. They are trading it as a commodity, rather than as a currency. Anyhow, for what its worth, my discussion with my neighborhood bullion dedaler.
Yes I have had many such discussions over the years too. I can not explain why there are so few buyers, and regardless of the number of sellers, there is plenty of gold and silver on display in local coin shops ready for sale -- and those shops are empty.
Take it for what it's worth. The average American or Canadian is NOT broke there are lots of things being bought and sold each day. One ounce of Physical gold is probably the least popular thing to buy for $1450 today.
I built up quite a stack over the years, which was unfortunately lost in a boating accident. I am just telling it like it is.
No, you're not telling the whole truth. Not even close.
Your coin shops don't jive with mine.
I've never actually seen/held an AGE. Been asking my coin shop about it every time I'm in. I want to fondle one. He says the few that show up never stay around for long. It's 'cause of them buyer thingies.
my observation today : LCSs have coins in stock but the premiums are exceptionally high and the shopkeepers do not look happy. i think they have limited supply not because they can't find gold but they are afraid of making a loss as the price is still downtrending.
To the guy above e-recep: There are some shops that have no gold but those are just there to buy dead grandpa's coin collection for pennies on the dollar, when someone walks in. Those shops don't like messing with gold bullion for the stacker. Find a new dealer, there is so much bullion available now it's not even funny. Where I live there are several shops and all of them have a tube or two of gold, and lots of silver. The internet is full of stories about "no physical" but there is plenty. More importantly, for the last few YEARS these gold shops are bascially empty. Take a suburban area with 2 million residents and ask yourself, if there are only a few shops that specialize in providing gold bullion coins, and they are basically empty save for a few customers each day walking in to buy an AGE, what does this say about demand in USA for physical gold? For the most part, it's nonexistent. The average Joe is not buying. Different story in Asia.
Maybe because people are completely fuckin broke? Americans are stupid, flat out. They have never been through a currency crisis like India and China. America's number is almost up so the FSA will soon learn what its like.
Gold is not widely held as an investment by the public, so you will not see that kind of demand in any coin shop in particular, especially if they impose waiting times. Or coin shops had filled their orders at much higher prices and have closed out sales, unless you are willing to pay higher prices.
Gold as an investment comes in Kilo bars and up, so where there's an investing public, you'll find that people are taking advantage of prices here. There is more than just anecdotal evidence for believing this to be the case.
Kilo bars? At the retail level, the same level everyone is talking about as the real driver of demand in Asia, those are 22k jewelry, 1 oz coins and tubes of 1 oz coins. I have rarely seen a 10 oz bar, and never a kilo bar. Kilo bars are part of the shady world of central banks, and nobody believes them.
Oh brother. If you wanted to buy a good delivery bar, you can. Coins got sold out from the various mints around the world in the decline. In some countries, there's no royalty tax or sales tax to paying for bullion grade coins or bars in cash.
You can mix up the demand drivers as much as you like if you so wish, that's your perogative.
You're getting closer Magnum but your head is still in your ass.
Here is something to help you connect the dots on GLD and falling prices.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/5/15_How_A_Criminal_Syndicate_Of_Banks_Is_Raping_The_Gold_Market.html
KWN and their band of gold bull troubadors is one source of useful insight into the gold market but they are a broken record "always buy gold" so be wary. Look at the price drop of late. Did KWN suggest six months ago that a price correction may occur? Now there's a joke.
Gold does Not always go up. The market drives price. I question those who say the price of gold is manipulated by secretive players, but for years I fell under that spell. The Market determines price. And no discussion of the physical market is complete without an examination of the EMPTY gold shops in USA. That's all.
"I question those who say the price of gold is manipulated by secretive players,"
Are you naive? I think there are few buyers in North America because those who want to buy have bought, the rest are blissfully unaware, and heavily in debt. In order to buy more, people have to wait for their pay cheque, or convert other assets into gold, or decide to buy on margin, which IMO is not a good idea in a manipulated market (but hey, you don't think its manipulated, so feel free)
Call me a contrarian but I've done a LOT of research into whether or not there is "manipulation" of the gold market, espeically for physical gold, and it does not exist. The market sets the price not shadowy guys pushing buttons in order to smack the price down. It's a sentiment that you don't hear often especially on ZH but it's the right way to look at the price of gold. I am NOT a gold basher either. You have to look at things with an open mind. If you've bought into the whole gold manipulation conspiracy, take another look.
I guess you are not naive then, but you most certainly are a bold faced liar.
Rather trollish too...considering your ad hom attack on Mr Kaye while you did not, and could not, refute a thing he said.
Who the fuck is Mr Kaye and why are YOU in here calling me names? Liar about WHAT? Gold shops in USA are not empty? Give me a fucking break. Go walk into a gold shop ya dumbass. It's EMPTY. And I've got news for you about KWN they put different talking heads there on a rotating basis (Gerald Celente what a LAUGH). I have listened to Eric King for years. Bill Fleckenstein is a good listen, but a rare contributor unfortunately. You should consider other viewpoints than KWN and knock it off with the name calling of people who obviously know their subject matter but just have a different opinion. Over time you may learn. And who is the troll here pal? Beat it Cazzo.
Read the goddamn article and get back to us okay?
The truth is, the coin shops have been empty for 12-13 years. Who do you think you are kidding here? Less than 2-3% of all Americans have any physical gold or silver at all. You think this is some new thing going on right now? If so, what a clueless buffoon you are.
And BTW, I dont listen to KWD. I got the link to that article right here at ZH the other day and read it. Its is spot fucking on. Try and refute it.
Then i have no idea what the argument is about. All i said in this thread is that gold shops are empty in usa and in Asia the story is different. Now you agree but say I am a gold basher a troll blah blah either you misread my posts, confused w/ someone else, or have a mental issue. For this thread i say to you fuck off. End.
The argument is that you are entirely wrong as to why the gold price is falling. Good grief man, please listen to the interview.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/14_William_Kaye.html
NOWHERE did I explain why the price of gold is falling. I stated in a thread about PHYSICAL GOLD that gold shops in USA selling PHYSICAL GOLD, are,,,,, EMPTY, Devoid of Customers!! That does not equivocate to an explanation why the gold price is falling, at all. I will listen later to KWN.
That doesn't add up. The FIAT system is not even sustainable without manipulation of the gold price. If left unchecked, market forces would crush bad money in a matter of months.
Gold manipulation is not just likely, it is unavoidable.
indeed there is a difference in mentality.
But it is not accidental - asia, russia and eastern europe all were running high inflation for decades (the range of 10% per year is a norm) so people there learned not to hold savings in paper currencies
Russia had a complete collapse in tbe 1990s and i think what lies ahead for usa will be similar but much worse due to fighting among people (mad max). Asians know their govts are only looking out for themselves, so they buy gold rather than stack paper. Americans are indeed gullible so far in believing govt is good and if we only had more democrats or republicans everything would improve.
I am a strong believer in owning gold for the sole purpose as a hedge against govt failure. As an investment, eg to buy and sell for a profit, gold stinks. Its purely a hedge to protect against collapse of govt.
The buyers are there, they just know there's no point in hanging around because there's no sellers.
What is truly FRUSTRATING is listening to people getting all giddy about the physical market separating from the criminal paper market, and then BITCH & COMPLAIN about having to pay what they call a PREMIUM! for physical. Just a bunch of goddamn morons!
The metals market is rather ingenious, from the standpoint of the dealer. Dealers charge the consumer a huge premium for physical, then pay the paper price, when the consumer sells back to them.
That actually isn't true.
My gold broker is paying (his bid right now) $1,408 for a 1 oz Eagle. The spot gold price is $1,381.
Not all sellers are equal. The "We Buy Gold" slumlords will be packing up shortly. Far less weak hands out there now. I'm sure they've done well, though (the smart ones, anyway).
I highly suggest a quick ball wash at your local asian rub & tug palace to calm your nerves this morning, kind sir.
2013 gold maple 1 oz yesterday was $55 over spot. Has not changed in years.
AGE spot plus 60.00 yesterday at 12:00 CDT. Has been spot plus 60.00 yor the past year at my LCS.
AGE 60 over you are getting a fair shake. Every once i awhile I can score AGE 50 over but usually those are 70 in my neck of the woods. I really like the 1/4 AGE especially if can find at 5% over which is not that uncommon.
The silver holdings banner from ccredit suisse at the top of the page says in small print.....
Does not gauruntee holders to any physical metal.
Wow
BTFD...on the S+P ! 2000!
jk...btfd in gold bitchez
It's irritating that they continue to consider the demand for physical to be the same as the demand for paper. Nonsense.
It's irritating that they continue to tell the sheeple the demand for physical is the same as the demand for paper.
Just to be clear...this is Q1 - pre April smackdown, right? That blue line is going to go blue pill in Q2.
I've found it difficult / almost impossible to find physical silver in my area; SE USA; and the gold that is available is selling at a premium - close to $2000 and ounce; the force is stong yoda ! My brother and i are shopping for farm land.
like the official exchange rate in argentina for US dollar versus the black market...
I hear that folks in Argentina are buying BMWs as a way to store wealth.
1 oz gold coin on ebay is still in the $1700 range while gold price has dropped to the $1300 range? Whats going on?
They are two different products. Like a Maserati and a Hot Wheels version of the same.
1 oz gold coin on ebay is still in the $1700 range while gold price has dropped to the $1300 range? Whats going on?
Observe where you're looking, that says it all. On eGay, there are suckers by droves.
Reality is setting in.
That's called a ripoff.
Soon you can buy gold at kitco for $980 and less.
Patience my friend.
fixed it:
Soon you can buy paper (gold) at Comex for $980 and less.
You seem to be delluded into thinking we buy gold in order to exchange it for USD papershit later on. What would be the point of that??
How long can the powers that be continue shipping physical gold to countries like China, India, Russia, and others? ABN Amro and Germany's Gold repatriation efforts seem to indicate that they have little physical Gold left. Those two stories warned the world that physical PMs were scarce. Physical demand seems to have grown increasingly more resilient in the face of the macro fundamentals. Now we seem to be seeing bullion banks use GLD as their private gold hoard, withdrawing Gold to meet demand. Countries that have seen currency devaluations in recent memory, such as China, Russia, and India will have continued appetite for real currency hedges. I can't imagine there is enough Gold in the world to satisfy the demand that is really starting to grow. Then we need to ask how much real Gold is in GLD, and how much of it will be permitted to leave the U.S. before they close GLD. Reminiscent of Nixon closing the gold window.
I don't think we will have long to wait before we start hearing about defaults and failed deliveries. I'm more curious about what happens next. Do dollars for Gold go up, or do they stay artificially down. There just won't be any PMs for sale. Will another market reprice Gold and become the new Gold market?
excellent questions and thesis all...
I can't imagine there is enough Gold in the world to satisfy the demand that is really starting to grow.
That, my friend, is a very well-articulated summary of what is THE common thread of knowledge among all who know what is going on.
And the gold pump continues.
Gold went only so high because of the ETF's.
True value is $980.
ETF's are fake gold.
True value is 10,000+
Apart from your flaming ignorance, I would be interested in knowing how the true value of something be constant when the unit of denomination is not?
(This is not a hard question, but may be for you...)
True value is what one wants to give for it. As we can see, the true value drops. Meaning, people are willing to pay LESS for an ounce of gold than last year. Trend continnues to the downside. Look at the chart.
True value is what one wants to give for it.
I want to give you $5 for your car AND your house. Seems you're a little down on your luck.
(Maybe value also has something to do with what someone would be willing to sell an item for, hmmm?)
Are you Paul Van Eeden or just a follower of his?
Bassackwardization of thought process.
fixed it:
True value is around $2000 in large quantity transactions happening now
the local coin shop (northern NJ) is selling junk silver for $32.50/0z. and people are buying. big disconnect.
From July 1, the US will ban sales of gold by anyone to either the Iranian government or to Iranian citizens, a senior US Treasury official said. Washington has warned Iran's neighbors Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, key regional centers of the gold trade, to stop gold sales to Iran, said David Cohen, treasury under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence. Source
This is an important point. Despite the best efforts of Keynesians the world over, gold is still considered a hard currency for governments when it comes to a nation-state's hard currency reserves.
The Obama administration offered an oil-for-gold loophole in the upcoming sanctions regime, it being known that without sufficient hard currency reserves, Iran's currency would crater. That this hard currency (gold) lifeline was slapped away says a lot about the true believers (as in "America, the Great Satan) in the Iranian regime.
Excellent catch!
Apparently trade in barbarous relics requires barbarous interventionist policies.
Perhaps David Cohen should have a new title, Treasury Under-secretary Of Financial Terrorism. And we wonder why they hate us?
Lets see....the Chinese citizen got swindle in the real estate market, then they piled in gold at much higher levels....now they are piling in again. At what level will they start puking up their gold hoards? 1100? 999? When their economy crashes around them and they are getting a bit hungry? If the dollar keeps moving strongly upward (which looks to be the case) they will have to sell their gold for our wheat, soybeans, corn, etc etc...maybe even our oil.....lol.
I think the current views are too mainstream and will not happen. It's too obvious.
The Chinese will buy food from Argentina (beef), Brazil (wheat / soy), and of course from the farms they own in the U.S., Canada, and all over Africa. I think we will be the ones seeing higher food prices, because that is what we are seeing now.
I don't think they will be puking their Gold up. If the Chinese cost basis goes up, then what we pay for finished goods will also go up, because almost everything is manufactured in China.
Gold at 10k is a "when" not an "if". The lower gold goes, the more people buy. The only thing being puked up is paper money. And if you think the only asset class that is not going to move on the easy money and easy credit of hyperinflation is hard global money gold, you are mistaken. BTFD
Funny what folks will sell when they are hungry......I'll BTFD around 1000-1100 if not lower.
It doesn't matter what you sell. The USD won't buy you anything.
You will be begging for a gold standard when you see how far the Dollar can fall. You will be screaming for the government to back their paper with something other than bad debt and derivatives.
Maybe so. But for now the dollar looks to be getting stronger, not weaker.
Just like the Japanese Yen before it imploded. I can't give you a day. But the US Dollar is going to lose 90% of its value in the near future. Will it show up in the DXY? That all depends on how many other currencies we take down with us. But it will show up in everything else.
I worry less about the DXY than about the price of a jar of peanut butter.
The DXY is nothing but a currency daytrader's limited tool and, more importantly, just another piece of Establishment propaganda designed to attempt to fool the masses into believing that the true value of the US dollar is not falling as continually and precipitously as it actually is.
if all debts were to be paid back then we would have no fiat left and all prices in that fiat would be close to zero.
The sorry truth of the charade will be clearly visible when they start allowing shorts to settle paper futures contracts in cash instead of delivering the real stuff to the longs. Then it's clearly just a market in cash and credit, and might as well be labeled a market in golf balls or hairballs as gold.
If you haven't taken in William Kaye's two part interview with King World News, do so post haste (links below). He lays it all out. Several pundits have talked about the interrelationship between the ETF, GLD, and the futures and physical markets. Kaye does the best job expalining of them all: 1) bullion banks short the futures in the far east (perhaps London, I would have to check) near the close to knock the price down - (as the retails jump on the short side - my additional input, not Kaye's), 2) GLD drops like a stone with the futures (as the retails panic and get their stops hit), 3) GLD continues to drop here after the eastern market close, 4) bullion banks buy massive amounts of GLD at the discount, 4) big holders of GLD (100K plus shares) can swap their shares for physical gold - the bullion banks do this andt he administrator/trustee cancels the shares, 5) I assume that at some point they close their gold future shorts at the expense of the retail shorts (note that the retails have been getting shorter while the big players have been getting long), 6) bullion banks sell their physical in the eastern markets at above futures spot for a nice little arb profit. Lather rinse repeat - as we saw at about 8:00 AM today and 10:00 AM yesterday.
Good scam if you can get it. Several questions arise:
1) why aren't the regulators all over this obvious scam (don't bother responding - I know the answer - question is rhetorical),
2) won't all the shares of GLD eventually disappear,
3) does the world have an infinite supply of retail suckers,
4) what will happen to the West when China has all of the gold,
5) won't the bullion banks eventually pile in big time on the long side as the "tradeable supply" of physical gold goes near zero,
6) when the COMEX fails, will it be because of lack of physical for delivery, or because all of the pathetic retail shorts can't raise the additional margin,
7) are the bullion banks anything other than pure parasites, do/did they have a real purpose,
8) does the world have an infinite supply of MSM gold bear shills (note that Obama lovers Jon Stewart and Chris Matthews both had a come to Jesus moment yesterday post Trifecta Gate news..you know....even a broken clock...),
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/14_W...
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/15_W...
I have been wondering about what will happen when China has all the gold and why would we allow this to happen. I suspect maybe this is the reason why China is still buying our debts with the understanding that we will sell them our gold. The tricky part is that it must be done in a way which wouldn't bring to much attention and alarm.
We allow this to happen because we are stooooopid and feckless. We have a Keynan president who loathes anything that has steel or concrete in it and longs to return to the life of the hunter-gatherers.
Several years ago we - er ah Timmothy Geithner - gave China direct access to purchase US Treasuries from the Treasury. The MSM let that pass w/o fanfare. I am sure you can puzzle out the implications of that.
I call my Congressman once a month. I point out that the Chinese CBs are purchasing gold, oil, farm land, and have tried to buy US ports. OTOH, our CB is buying worthless MBS and increasingly questionable Treasuries. Is the single biggest holder of said last security as I understand it. He didn't think it was funny. I told him that it wasn't funny and that I had no intention of making humor.
Why are we doing this to ourselves? Seriously? It is the kleptocracy. They will keep it going until every bit of flesh is taken from the bones of the US. They think there is an escape island somewhere to take the spoils and be safe.
Check out what Sam Vaknin has to say about narcissists on YouTube. Max Keiser rants about being a psychopath as a prerequisite for a job on Wall Street. Take in this YouTuve video:
Bankers Fixing The System: story about banking industry in 2012 BBC documentaryhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu5dVxjO1f8&list=PL0BFADF58C858F3F8&index...
I would hope Magnum, hungarianboy and orangegeek might read your two posts above here with an "open mind", but I'm sure they will just use some bullshit ad hom attack and move on to the next gold thread to bash PM's again.
I've haven't seen this level of nonsense since 2001 and 2008. The level of propaganda and misinformation is much worse now than when gold was $252 and $692 respectively.
This is IT ! Today is the day. I covered my gold stock shorts and going long.
Mark this day in your calendar - This is the TURNING POINT!!!
it is the lowest entry point in PMs most likely to never be seen again.
Double bottoms and off we go …. Cover shorts and go long!
Gold and silver spot prices are down but the miners are up. Maybe today is the turning point.
yeap ... it is the same people playing the game ... miners are first to turn around, then the metal ... it will be a hot summer!!!
how much are physical premiums rising? can someone show me a chart? i don't have access to a time series but it looks like premiums on eagles are ~ $70 . . . no change from a couple of years ago.
if the physical demand was so overwhelming, wouldn't premiums not just creep up but explode higher. that isn't happening. Until someone shows me that happening i'm skeptical on the physical demand argument.
Premiums used to be 3% on a website for gold coins now 14%
they were 3% before 2008, not since. they have been > 10% since 2008. Anyway, 14% isn't much of a premium if physical demand was really so strong relative to paper
they were 3% before 2008, not since. they have been > 10% since 2008. Anyway, 14% isn't much of a premium if physical demand was really so strong relative to paper
Almost no premium at these funds where supposedly you can cash in and get the physical. Shortage? I don't see it here. Are bulls about to get smashed again?
http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust/net-asset-value/
I have been wondering about the lack of premium at PSLV. I am keeping whatever I have but am not going to buy more shares. If the spot price goes below $22, I would rather buy 100 ozs bar which seems to be the best deal. I still trust Sprott but it is a little suspicious.
The premiums on eagles are $65 plus 4% handling fee which is $58 at BullionDirect.
Premiums on gold coins now IF you can get any that is, UK gold and silver coin dealer has had miniscule levels of coins and then only briefly before all gone again since the 'take down'
oh stop, "if you can get any" if there were none available the premium would go through the roof. I'd be happy to sell you mine at a $1000 premium to spot. You'd have endless supply at that price.
You live in the UK as well?
The idea that no gold is available near spot is erroneous.
There are 2 ounces available right now on Nucleo Direct for $1405.
Alright, alright, so 2 ounces does not make a market :)
BTFD
Buy low, sell high they say.
It's pretty low right now.
>>>
...the strong rise in investment for gold bars and coins at the _retail_ level
<<<
Retail buying as the price falls is better than they usually do...
I wonder when the gold producers will grow up and realize they are getting taken by selling their gold at paper prices? Here's a thought - every two weeks they auction off their gold production to the highest bidder completely bypassing the paper thieves. Just a dream though since the managers of the miners are ignorant of original thought.
stateside
Oh don't worry, shareholder conference calls will be asking these very questions quite soon... Barrick esp. is going to have some questions to answer, but nothing too surprising for those who have followed Barrick's activities.
Someone needs to suggest the desperate retailers to try the small miners when they run out of supply. They usually don't lock their prices into the CRIMEX. FWIW, CGR doesn't.
GLD filling out a massive continuation pattern today, much like the $U.S. gold price:
http://scharts.co/147jqo8
The irony is that GLD and various physical ETFs and retirement funds invested in gold that sold their physical into the panic will be obliged to buy it all back in a high demand market.
Interesting chart. But to me it looks like gold broke a big support area with a heckuva lot of supply. Price then tested the bottom of that area and very little demand was seen. Now price is headed back down to see where demand is. Silver is trying to make new lows, where silver goes, gold goes. Not unusual for price to take another dive from chart patterns like this. We shall soon see....right now, I'm waiting.
I can agree with some of the technicals, since they're so negative. But gold prices do not follow silver prices. The reason why their markets seem correlated are because lease rates for gold and silver react the same.
You will see that by contrast platinum and palladium lease rates do not follow the market in the same way.
Then there's the gold/silver ratio, which is breaking out slowly but surely. Silver has seen its heyday,(Silver Wheaton gave guidance on earnings) but did not re-bubble as people expected, similar to the oil price after the blow off, though its price remained firm.
Gold on the other hand, had seen a blow-out, but is still on track to fill out its bull market implications, but I don't expect a massive mania blow-off, and that alpha will be limited to 2 - 3 times the low in April.
gold will crash at the time, panic selling will happen
Obama's Gold Tsar will look into it and get back to you.
I don't understand how premiums for gold are not going even higher..
Premiums for gold is going higher in India and China where people only want physical and immediate delivery.
I know that when the stock market crushes people lose a lot of money, but if the price of gold in fiat dollars crushes, I still hold my gold in my pocket or on me as jewlery and I am not worried a bit.
A double-eagle on ebay is selling for 1676 USD right now with 7 minutes left in the bidding. 37 bids means they want the real stuff, not the paper.
Real gold is selling at a higher price today, right now.
If the paper market has no gold to deliver, all you are doing is giving 1500 frns to receive 1200 frns later on down the road. It amounts to paying 20 percent interest to buy paper gold. You are giving frns to buy paper gold because there is no gold to be delivered. It's a scam.
The paper gold market goes to zero.
fake bidder
when gold is 700, phys will be 725.
congrats.
Great! That means the US has its deficit under control, QE has stopped, the US economy is healthy, Europe has solve its Greece/Italy/Spain issues, Obama has convinced China to sell gold to the US, and I watched the Toronto Maple Leafs play in the finals IN COLOUR.
Copper at $1.50, oil at $35, a house for $150k, and a chicken in every pot!
I would much rather see the system reformed than see it crash, but its just not going to happen, is it.
Gold bars are very expensive, if their sales up, that means very rich 1-5% are hiding into gold. Talking about no trace of wealth.
Yet another clear example of the disconnect in our worlds' new normal of misallocated risk capital, massive corruption and corporate distrust, low vol, massive public debt build-up, abused fiat currencies, overreaching gov't regulation, intervention and market manipulation. Eventually it will all succumb to gravity and free-market forces.
What do you think the states would do if Obama tried an executive order 6102? I don't think he has the cojones. The loyalty he commands is thin as a dollar bill.
Looks like Obama's pal Soros feels the same way...................
http://bullmarketthinking.com/soros-reports-over-239mm-in-gold-positions-buys-25mm-in-call-options-on-juniors/
Just like the Stock Market is disconnected from the Reality in the Real Market, GLD & SLV are disconnected from the Real Market in Physical Precious Metals.
http://www.free-bullion-investment-guide.com
Made a payment for a small purchase of silver coins (Canadian) in April 24. My German seller told me that it will take quite some time to ship the package due to shortages of phisical.
I wonder how much it will take for same day phisical markets created all over the world <strong>with prices reflecting real market rates</strong>. If there is no seller able to sell me silver coins even at 22 Euro, then the real price is not 17, not 18, not 22, but much more. It's the price at which a real seller will part with his silver coins imediatelly.
In communist times (Romania) we had an official exchange rate for ROL/USD - it was around 20 ROL / USD. But on the real market, the exchange rate was closer to 100 ROL / USD. Well, what's the difference now?