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Philly Fed Misses, Key Indicators Negative Across The Board: Employment Index Lowest Since September 2009
It's just getting plain stupid out there. Just as stocks were exploding into the green (perhaps on expectations of an epic Philly Fed miss), the Philly Fed did not disappoint, printing at -5.2, down from 1.3, and crushing expectations of an increase to +2.0 (coming below the lowest forecast), the biggest miss since February and confirming that the Empire Fed index plunge was not a fluke. Virtually every components in the Philly Fed was red except for Inventories (up to 4.1 from -22.2 in March) and Prices Paid (up to 6.9 from 3.1 in March). Among the plungers, the key New Orders tumbled from -1.0 to -7.9, Shipments crashed from 9.1 to -8.5, Average Workweek slide from -2.1 to -12.4, and the Number of Employees imploded from -6.8 to -8.7, the lowest print since September 2009. And if all of this doesn't send the Stalingrad & Poor 500 to new historic highs, we don't know what will. All one can do now is just laugh at this "market."
From the report:
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 1.3 in April to -5.2 this month. The current activity index has shown no pattern of sustained growth over the past seven months, generally alternating between positive and negative readings (see Chart). The number of firms reporting decreased activity this month (29 percent) edged out those reporting increased activity (24 percent). Other current indicators showed similar weakness this month. The demand for manufactured goods remained weak, with the current new orders index declining from -1.0 to -7.9. The shipments index also indicated weakness, decreasing more sharply from 9.1 to -8.5. Firms reported a notable increase in inventories this month: The current inventories index increased from -22.2 to 4.1.
Labor market conditions showed continued weakness, with indexes suggesting lower employment overall. The employment index decreased 2 points to -8.7, its second consecutive negative reading. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases (22 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (14 percent). The workweek index declined 10 points to -12.4, remaining negative for the fifth consecutive month.
Summary
The May Business Outlook Survey indicates some weakening of activity this month, with all of the broad indicators recording nega-tive diffusion indexes. The survey’s indica-tors have failed to exhibit any sustained pat-tern of growth in recent months. The indica-tors for general activity, new orders, and shipments suggest weaker conditions this month, and firms reported employment reductions. Price pressures continue to be modest. Despite weaker current indicators, firms continue to expect positive growth over the next six months.
Visually:
In summary: four out of four economic indicators disappoint (as does WalMart): truly a testament to the effectiveness of Ben Bernanke's "Wealth Effect" in full force.
And now we wait for the only indicator that actually matters: POMO.
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"It's just getting plain stupid out there." - Tyler Durden
From the sublime to the truly stupid there is just no end to the insanity. All aboard the crazy train.
<We ain't seen nuttin' yet. Just sayin'.>
I dont even think CNBC bothers to explain why the markets ramping up again since there is no logical reason....and whats the point when its going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month....I think CNBC viewership will actually start soaring again when shit hits the fan.CNBC viewership is inversely related to the DJIA
You don't need CNBS if every number on the wheel wins every time.
Bernanke would be a complete failure as a carnie but he is the "supreme chess master" according to all of his banksta associates.
Maybe we are just becoing more efficient as a society, thus we need less businesses. (/sarc)
He def is the chessmaster....and the middle class are his pawns....
BULLISH
Bullish,
BTFD!
"Maybe this is the other place."
No, the FED is full of scared little men. They only thing they know how to do is ctrl+p. The stupididist thing they have done is not sterilizing and buying MBS to infinity. The FED has failed in both of its mandates since 2009 and makes things worse with each passing day. Pumping the IWM as a transmission mechanism for improving their mandates is a complete failure. And yes, they'll be a price to pay somewhere down fhe road for that failure.
Well, if the truly comatose leadership at both GE and now COMCAST is instructive at all, BlowHorn [CNBC] ratings are irrelevant. The network exists purely to pump propaganda out the front door 24/7. In fact, I don't believe for one minute that even the dim bulbs who anchor the daily propaganda believe any of this "bullish" market crap they pump
J. Cramer sould have lost his job years ago. Instead, the network puts him on three times daily. Simply proof of the sad state of affairs.
NBC simply needs to be shuttered. We all need to be relieved of our "duty" to watch/monitor the financial comedy channel.
I wouldn't mind so much being on the crazy train, if I got an opportunity to drive once in a while.
Cant the Bernank glued his hands on the wheel and his feet to the accelerator and nearly forgot, he also sabotoged the brakes.
I have a bet with a friend that JC gets canned or leaves by the end of the year.
It ain't funny.
While the big guys laugh all the way to the bank (their bank) the rest of us are facing more and more taxes without representation.
Bernanke ZIRP is a transfer of wealth from you and I to the yahoos who got us into this. Moral hazard?
Piss on'em
The Fed's mandate is to foster economic growth and maximum employment, but instead they're tanking the economy and juicing the stock market. WTF? When are we going to fire these fools?
Firing those fools would cause a massive hit on the stock market. Which in today's terms is like at least 20-25 points. Down, that is.
You should come and work at the company I work for... crazy train shit from monday till friday with no room for logic or manors...
I'm on the same train. I keep thinking silly thoughts like "there is no free lunch" and "you don't get something for nothing" . Meanwhile the great wizard, Bernanke, has changed the rules. I keep thinking he and other central bankers will lose their credibility or the market will stop playing along. I must truly be crazy.
And the DOW is down a shocking 10 points? TEN points?? This really MUST be armageddon now! Full-retard....FORWARD!!---->
As the leverage of the financial system continues INCREASING as a result of the collateral backing the entire system DECREASING (thx to everyone who smartly loaded up on physicals), well you cant let the markets even drop more than a percent anymore or else the house of cards collapses. Unfortunately the Fed has unlimited ammo to keep POMOing the markets to the stratosphere with no consequences.
It's green!
Tyler is over-reacting; the recovery is strong. I have a ton of orders at 1644 to BTFD.
Lol, you think the S&P will drop back to 1644 to let you in? Keep dreaming!
Then I must buy now!
TSHTF literally?
Venezuela hopes to wipe out toilet paper shortage by importing 50m rollsMinister blames shortage on 'excessive demand caused by media campaign generated to disrupt the country'
"First milk, butter, coffee and cornmeal ran short. Now Venezuela is running out of the most basic of necessities – toilet paper."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/16/venezuela-toilet-paper-short...
Conserve toilet paper. Use both sides.
Can you spare a square? No.
India has a solution for you.
Nope, sorry. I don't have a square to spare...
YOU RULE!
SAME FOR CONDOMS! USE THE TWICE INSIDE OUT!!
15 KIDS AND 1 IN THE OVEN TO PROVE THAT IT WORKS!
SAVE A DOLLAR AND SPEND 100K ON COLLEGE LATER ON!
OBAMANOMICS 101!
'Blue dollar' market, meet the brown market- toilet paper.
Simple ..... Eat less, wipe less !!!
If you break the laws of economics, you may find yourself in some serious shit.
To hell with the Bernankster and hang'em high!
I'll just keep stackin' my argentum!
CNBC Headline: Mid-Atlantic Business Activity Contracts Unexpectedly in May
UNEXPECTEDLY?!?!?! I mean, whocouldanode?
Expectations are truth. Reality must be made to conform.
We are going to need Kevin to have a green Bloomberg terminal today or we might not make another new high.
Central Planning at its finest. I WANT MY MONEY BACK FROM COLLEGE! It was all a lie.
+infinity on the username
"The legal team at the Federal Reserve forbids the use of the term "infinity" by all parties without explicit written consent as it is now the sole property of the Chairperson and all other use is prohibited."
This is about the only technically bearish indication of all the indexes - NASDAQ100 breaks hourly channel.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/nasdaq100-hourly-closes-channel-support...
A break in a daily chart usually implies change - hourly, not so much.
Nothing but up folks.
4x whiffer.
Golden sombrero, bitchez!
Si senior..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqomZQMZQCQ
Stocks started to discount a better economy 1 year ago when talk of more QE started. And just look where we are now ZIRP, QE and all the other manipulative shit thats going on and the market rallies becuase this will lead to more stimulus that in fact made the economy worse in the first place.
The thing that worries me the most right now dosn't have anything to do with the markets at all, it's about how fucking stupid people can get. How can you actually belive in all this crap? Thats the single most worrying subject.
It is indeed scary, the power of the Blue Pill.
I feel like I'm walking through a Zombie Apocalypse what with all the totally clueless people out there. There isn't any way to relate to strangers anymore. They all belong to a world that makes zero sense to me.
I feel the same way. Whether I'm walking around town or driving all I see are people totally oblivious to what is going on around them. When I talk to most people the conversations are comepletely superficial. It's almost as if deep thoughts are too painful to think about so they simply avoid them.
You guys remember when that Movie "Avatar" came out? I know Freddie saw it. Anyway, people were reported feeling depressed for a while after seeing it. They wanted that movie to be their reality. There is a bit of that on here. It's easy to log in and be in the world of people who understand what is going on and can converse about it. The hard part becomes being able to navigate the real world and the brainless people all around.
For me I relate it ot the Agent Smith training in the Matrix ( yeah Freddie saw that one too) when the lady in the red dress turned into agent Smith.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AjvGIBgpF8
You have to understand most of these people aren't ready to be unplugged.....
RE:
And the majority of them don't have the mental capacity to; either they aren't smart enough OR they are so corrupted by the system that they refuse to step away from whatever spigot of wealth this system has curried for them.
Sadly, it does take a village to save a country.
But not to save yourself.
You ever read 'Brave New World'?.... where's the soma... need moar soma
Me and Freddie and Otto are waiting for it to hit the big Screen.
People do not want to know. Its that simple. The only people I know who are truly uneffected by anything that's happening are the Amish, from whom I buy quite a bit. It would take that level of unplugging to be that oblivious unless one works really hard to ignore reality. We live in a pretend world. Nothing matters now except the ground you stand on that belongs to you. And of course the gold and silver you lost in that fateful boating accident.
I don't know if you saw my response to your post yesterday, but welcome back it's good to see you.
Speaking of boating accidents ..The navy hascome upwith a way to find all that lost gold. Now they are developing under water drones.
http://www.myfoxny.com/story/22258561/us-navy-tests-anti-mine-drones-in-...
How can you actually belive in all this crap? Thats the single most worrying subject.
You've got form....you re-elected Obama. You yanks beleive any bullsh!t.
The economy continues it's collapse and the markets continue to soar. It can't be long before they pull the rug out from under the markets. When they do some greedy bastards are going to be sorry they didn't take profits first. He who panics first panics best.
Pulling the rug might topple the table that holds the pot that's boiling the frogs.
To the moon Ralph, to the moon!!!!
Let me repeat this again.
What was a light depression, QE made it a full depression.
Soon we'll see a shock notice that QE is ...halted.
QE IS DEAD.
"I don't always have a depression, but when I do it's a full one." -The Most Disgusting Man In The World
ekm fwiw I have a good friend of mine in the industry that understands fixed income far better than I, and he feels that QE will be halted by the end of the year.
I think he is crazy. But I also think there is a chance it happens, the dollar strengthens, the US is (insanely) considered a fiscally responsible Country (the debt and deficits are just a non event at this point) and money continues to flow into treasuries from other countries as asets flee for safety, keeping rates down.
End of year is too late.
Within days I'd say
You're killin me. You and your damn time frames are driving me nuts. Are you trying to see if you can cause someone somewhere else in the world to have insomnia? Because it's working.
Sorry, fonz
We are in depression.
Creating fake money makes it worse. It's beyong the point of kicking the can...unless there is an international military issue.....Syria, Iran.
But even Bush, let Obama deal with Iran and crapped the market by calling the margin and releasing crude oil from SPR.
It was that bad, in 2008, it is way worse now. Any day counts.
No need to apologize. I am pretty sure you are right.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
This will all fall apart before August.
Promise?
So very tired of waiting....
Be careful of what you wish for....
What was it we wanted to happen, again?
agree. the market we don't see (tri-party repo and securities lending) might not be working well, if you read between the lines of Bernanke's comments and comb through NY Fed securities lending activity (at a one year high).
Whatever they concocted (Fed and ECB) to keep the charade going and the impression that Europe is functioning does not work, much like the four bankers who broke the world in the 20s.
Look at long-term government bond yields worldwide, from Sweden to Tchecoslovakia, they are all down massively and many below the rates in the US and UK (not coincidentally the financier crony countries). QE is but a distraction and our long-term yields will be cut in half at some point, wether wall street likes it or not.
These politicians think this first quarter of tax payments is going to continue...the end of year selling to avoid Capital gains increases in tax revenues ..increase in tax payments...I was one that sold early to take advantage of the lower cap gains rate....but they will not...the politicans will assume so..because the CBO will tell them so...QE if it ever ends will skyrocket interest rates...we should have the ten year at 7% right now I think...and there will be a rush to safety...I am not sure what that will be...I think PM´s...as stocks should fall as well as bonds will crash....the government will have monthly raise the debt limit meetings...and the rest of the world will hate the US Dollar at this point...so will they stop???? i don´t think so...they can´t....we are now a drug addict...and we can´t live without it now....our business has adapted to the drug and can´t go back to the normal...the cheap money has made malinvestment the new norm...
That is when the SDR will be ushered in to save us. The world will have a new currency.
As long as the new currency is at least partly pegged to something I have in my possession, I'm good.
+
I don't give a fuck if it's pegged to nat gas and they frack this country til it splits apart. FRN's and the bankers who benefit need to die.
Bingo, presto, exactamundo - same as the Great Depression of the previous Century.
Only thing capable of revitalising growth is another World War.
Perhaps, that's the ultimate goal here.
OMG the Dow is now *plummeting* 27 points. Someone, hold my hand. Except for Bernanke. I suspect that man is a perv.
I KNOW! A few minutes ago I saw DOW down -10....now it's minus -27?? Thisi is shocking! HOLD ME I'm SO scared!! :(
WHEW! OK nevermind, DOW no longer down -27 we're back to all green! ALL IS WELL AGAIN YAY!
Sorry, I'm afraid Ben already has "a hand full" ...
There is no such thing as a market economy. Burn your college textbooks. All lies.
They keep saying its all the new people getting into the market....I don´t think so...I think its more the companies buying back stock...they seem to be the only ones buying this rally and creating it in fact....
OK then if it's companies buying all their own stock which is levitating all markets to all-time record highs, then the Fed can stop daily POMO billions and raise rates back to 4%!
I think its time for a Macro comparison vs S+P, bonds!
HFTs hot potatoes gunning the 'market' as usual
Maybe the Fed can directly hire 10 million people, each making 250 grand. "Mr. Ben, dill for your salmon?"
....aaaaand stocks are about to flip to green again.
siiighhhhhh
The Green Machine has spoken, all news is rally news. The "Honorable" Deciders will have it no other way.
Reminds of the stern of the Titanic flipped up higher just before it plunged below the surface..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Mo9rGEtE2M
fund buys MBS/Treasuries from Banks balance sheets...bank use cash/have excess reserves...they can take more risks and send it all to their prop desks....
meanwhile..corporations are hoarding all their cash and not sharing it with their employees...just paying divs and buying shares back...GIVE EMPLOYEES A RAISE for christ fning sake
Can't do that. Directors' fiduciary duty is to shareholders, not employees. Besides, it would be "inflationary".
When the QE tapering talk starts the economic indicators start coming out very soft.
Do any of you have the link for the article Zero Hedge did a few weeks back that had a comprehensive list of all the misses to virtually every economic indicator in existence? I want to update it... and e-mail it to Maria 'Stawks' B.
To miss is bullish becuase it will awaken the Bernanke.
To beat is bullish because it will show what the Bernake does is working, so he must do more.
I agree, and it's insane. However, we can at least dispel this notion we are in a 'recovery'. I get sick of hearing the talking heads explain how the market is finally getting healthy and everything is great.. up, up, and away... when it's all based on complete bullshit.
Since when did the market have to go down on bad news?
let's all chill, after all it's option's expiration week and that's the only thing that really matters for the gangsters - they need to keep their off-balance sheet, always net positive (for all large players nevertheless, a mathematical impossibility!), derivative interest rate bets alive.
Sell in May and go away is still in effect and the players know this. Doubt this lasts past July.
Even MORE shitty news just announced!! You can almost SEE the peanuts and corn in the air! Rally-Ho, boys!! Rally-Ho!!
Are we there yet...?
Sumons the market manipulation wizards!! Must....Close....All-Time....New Record....Everyday....
Some kind of wonderful.
be careful what you wish for, when the market crashes this time, there will be a real depression, not the phony version we got in 2008. when obama loses control (be careful what you wish for II) and the GOP starts slashing social spending (they want to take 3% off the food stamp budget) then austerity (be careful what you wish for III) will take hold. there is overcapacity in everything, how long will it take for the [stuffed] supply [channel] to [empty out] work through the system? watch the perishables, supply will slow there first. bad moon a rising, people always buy stocks [gamble] when things look the darkest. sorry Bob Prechter your judgement about human character and socionomics is all wrong. this rally is americas investors taking the rent money down the indian casino for one last shot black or red.
I worry about the restless, hungry peasants the most - you can't reason with a mob.
When the free shit stops flowing they will start killing each other off first. Once the initial stages of the great die off has happened, the golden horde will flee the cities and ravage the lands like a plague of locusts.
I'd say the hordes come out straight away and go after the producers, or people with something of worth in their homes & estates.
The teachers are already threatening to strike in my town because we didn't pass the tax levy, so they are looking at pension cuts.
Actually the young current teachers don't care. It is the 100 set to retire in the next five years that are causing all the problems.
"You don't expect me to live off $75k a year do you? I worked 25 years for this. I deserve my $85k a year until the day I die. I TAUGHT YOUR CHILDREN!!!"
Teachers all say they do the hardest job in the world. Of course virtually all of them never did anything else. I tell them to go try and work a 60 hour week in a smelting plant for $11 an hour and then see if they complain.
And nobody will care or trade on this by 11AM...up 40 by end of day
Are there some old school Cray's running wild through the nodes at war with Watson and Skynet? Just unleash the new kid Quantum kid on the block that DOD and DARRPA have had on lock down, it's already interesting enough and that should move it along.
Last one out in this "market" IS the sucker.
Help, I'm held captive to a monitor screen that continuously shows berserk economic data. I need to go play with some kittens.
I rescued twelve kittens from under my deck. I'm thinking of making the hanes t-shirt commercial for real.
This market is just one big pomosexual river dance.
If it isn't obvious that the whole world is in depression and has been planned to be so, you need to ask yourself some tough questions. Human beings have a deep flaw with respect to power and money. Those in control are evil, those that are controlled just don't know any better.
ZH is great for financial and market based news, but it's like being a newscaster at the scene of an unfolding homicide. Play by play, but no stepping in or preventive counteraction.
This is our "two minutes of hate". For some of us it takes more than two minutes to vent on Goldstien (Bernanke, Obama, Holder, Jews, Israel etc... [Goldstien is individualized in our 1984]).
This is not a forum for collective action.
"Impovernment of the Booble, by the Bauble, and for the Bubble.." JJ Finnegans Wake
None of this will make any reality sense until the global equity markets free fall back to reality, bonds go to zero yield on fear and gold soars as only safe haven
Does anyone really care about manufacturing in the US... let alone the northeast US? I don't see much significance to this data point.
Algos don't care and human traders forget about bad news after 1 hour.
BULLISH!
When I go to sales meetings I feel like I am in a coma ward.
I talk about new products, marketing plans, etc. All I get is blank stares in return.
The only thing that elicits a response is:
"Hey look your stock is up 5% today!"
That is if they have an employee share plan. If not, the patient stays in the deep sleep.
Tell me again how making money from artificially increasing share value builds a strong economy again?
Even with all the negative data, all Benny has to do is announce more QE. The market will take off again. There is absolutely no connection of stocks to the economy. The only thing that would derail the train is a meteor strike on the FED building. QE is the drug of the new socialist economy.
This thing doesn't blow until Benny Boy leaves.
We have another 1-1.5 years of this crap. DOW 36000.
Not that this is news to anyone, but interesting to hear just the same...had a well connected guy who sees order flow tell me "market is never going down again....it's not retail buying, not institutional buying....it's the Government buying".
Well i got bad news for him and the Gub'ment, the Fed only MANIPULATES interest rates, they do not nor can they CONTROL them. If the Fed truly had those powers they would have used them many recessions ago.
And explain to me why gold is not over $3,000 per ounce. I must be missing something.
because its priced in dollars, the real value is something different
Well $85 Billion a month didn't do it....Maybe $125 Billion a month?
Has anyone seen the latest speech from Pope Francis. At one point he identifies the main problem of income inequality and yet comes to an utterly absurd conclusion.
"Countries should impose more control over their economies and not allow “absolute autonomy”, in order to provide “for the common good”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/the-pope/10061700/Pope-Francis-urges-global-leaders-to-end-tyranny-of-money.html