Tepper Topped

Tyler Durden's picture


It seems the words of Plosser and Williams are more powerful than the rumors of Hilsenrath for now. While the jury is still out for whether the 'Tepper Top' is in, today's equity sell-off (admittedly a mere 0.5%) appears to have stunned a few people back into the reality that stocks actually fall. Trannies were worst performers but broadly speaking this was the worst drop in 2 weeks (only 2nd down day in May) and it appears equity markets are beginning to play catch-down to the reality other risk asset classes have been warning about for a week or two. Homebuilders were the worst performers (as the data this morning was just horrible - US and Europe) and while Tech held us up for a little while, APPL's retest of its 50DMA saw sellers come back (and GOOG also lost ground from the open). Away from stocks, Treasuries closed -6bps (their best day in 5 weeks); credit continued to widen (weaken); VIX shifted higher still; shorts actually 'won' on the day (most-shorted -1% vs RUT -0.5%); and despite an early dip, the USD ended the day up another 0.25% (with AUD weakness the most obvious pain for carry traders).


The disconnect remains...


But Fed 'Dove' Williams appears to be trumping Tepper's Turbo market...


as stocks begin to catch down to VIX...


Credit remains unimpressed...


and Bonds decided that economic weakness trumped any Taper discussion today...


Gold and silver ended relatively flat despite a big plunge early in the European day. Oil surged again back up to $95...


Shorts managed to 'win' today (as we discussed earlier)...

As early exuberance gave in and collapsed back to risk-reality into the close (based on Capital Context's CONTEXT model proxy for cross-asset-class risk)...


Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Your rating: None

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Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:13 | 3570598 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Fuck you Tepper!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:15 | 3570608 Duffminster
Duffminster's picture

Its a big POMO day tomorrow.  $4.75 - $5.75 billion

Fed schedule

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:18 | 3570613 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Yeh... but everybody already knows that they have already bought that $5B in advance...... maybe Tyler (well the hedge funds already have....check the cusips...)

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:27 | 3570647 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

Off topic, bitcoin mtgox: https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130515.html
Not shut down afterall?

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:32 | 3570668 fuu
fuu's picture

Well now we have the official denial.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:41 | 3570665 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

And then you turn around and it's Tuesday again.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:48 | 3570718 prains
prains's picture

Trannies Top The Tepper, Ball Sniffing Really Works!


Sniff it

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:14 | 3570600 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I did not buy the dip again. I'm never gonna learn.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:29 | 3570656 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

Sold by cob wed as previously recommended. Btd, but we are near end. Be careful.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:15 | 3570607 electricgorilla
electricgorilla's picture

I'm gonna have to say BTFD on this one. 4-5 billion POMO tmrw. Things could get wildly bullish if the market rallies from this tmrw.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:16 | 3570609 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Tyler - Tepper Topped by the Taper.!.... (c'mon Tyler do I have to write all the copy fer 'ya ?).

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:26 | 3570639 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

I can't believe it's not bullish!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:29 | 3570657 monopoly
monopoly's picture


Gold Seen Crushed as Credit Suisse Forecasts $1,100 in Year

When I see headlines like this I know we are close to a turn. We will be crushed I tell you. Crushed!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:39 | 3570687 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Yeah, Gold to $1,000 (or less) in a year because of all the tightening the Fed is going to be doing.

We'll all be getting 5.00% on our bank accounts before you know it.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:30 | 3570661 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

The Fed knows this is an epic bubble just as well as everyone else. They also know that when it pops, the blame will fall squarely upon The Fed - as well it should.

Thus, we have these pathetic attempts to "talk it down". Sorry, but that's not going to work. This sucka is going to inflate fully and then some.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:38 | 3570685 Law97
Law97's picture

That's 'cause everybody knows it's just talk.  The Fed has been crying wolf for years now, and nobody belives them when they say they are going to stop easing.  Everybody knows the Fed can't stop or they will implode markets worldwide. 

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:40 | 3570699 The Heart
The Heart's picture

"The Fed knows this is an epic bubble just as well as everyone else. They also know that when it pops, the blame will fall squarely upon The Fed - as well it should."

Meanwhile, we will keep seeing lots of DISTRACTIONS to cover up the cover ups.


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 18:54 | 3571045 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

you think one hilsenrath is talking it down?? honest????  benny could let 10% out of this with an eyebrow raise....... 

Watch the middleast this weekend...  they need an excue.....


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:37 | 3570681 Oxygen
Oxygen's picture

Don't worry, big POMO tomorrow. We should see new high!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 17:16 | 3570811 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

That's the conventional wisdom, but I'm not so sure.  

I think yesterday's BS ramp raised the eyebrows of even the powerful insiders who've been fudging these markets, given it's blatant, reckless qualities.  When EVERYONE, even the "naive" money is buying sans stops after 10 each day, there has to be a realization that taking (and nudging) the other side can be more profitable, at least short term.  

Thus, today after the TOTALLY FUCKING BULLSHIT 10:00 - 10:15 "hammer" candle on all 5 and 15 minute equity charts that COMPLETELY REVERSED (yes, I'm yelling) the ENTIRE post Philly Fed Cheese-wiz debacle mini-decline, the stocks-will-never-again-go-down crowd tried ALL DAY, yet miserably failed, to even reach yesterday's aforementioned BS high, yet alone the coveted daily next pivot-up, a goal that's been achieved daily like an olympic horse jumping a croquet wicket.  

I believe the late-day decline would have happened even without the various 'expert' comments today.  I'm convinced a successful short-term short (of the 200+ point variety) is in the offing within the next 3-5 days, and we can't be afraid to take big positions after 10 when the day comes, wiith appropriate stop adjustments at 10:31 as warranted.

As for longer term shorts, in a word:  "no."

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 18:04 | 3570919 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Technicals don't matter dick in artificial markets with unlimited backstop.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 19:43 | 3571138 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

(Heh-heh).   You're correct, but on a different timeframe.  

Intraday technicals certainly do matter, both price action and indicators, as anyone buying today at the clear hammer candle that completely reversed, in and instant, the entire post-Philly carnage by 10:10, leading to the best move of the morning, as well as the rather obvious post-2:30 down move, easily forecasted by even a novice technician learning MACD or OBV from the back of a cereal box.  If you ignored the typical 'noisy' period from 12:30 - 2:30 (many day traders are out during this period, avoiding the false moves and stop runs), you did well today using technicals, despite the fact we were largely unchanged from the open to close.  Hell, the morning and closing lows, as well as the 3 iterim resting points, were right at pivot levels on the Russell, not hard to predict, happens most everyday.

Textbook technical analysis (head and shoulders patterns, and other such bullshit) has been largely arbitraged away by HFT, and we now know it only worked during the 70s and 80s due to the high amount of serial autocorrelation present over that period.  But, intraday, I have to laugh at those saying technicals don't matter.  Holy Christ !  Buying stocks because the Fed's buying bonds isn't 'fundamental'.  In fact, the daily moves are a mixture of stops runs and purely technical, HFT-induced arcs.  There's music to the madness for those willing to work hard, even as one despises the overall horseshit of those in control.  We can't trade the sensible market we'd like, but the one in front of us.  At least, for those aspiring to be traders, or, truthfully, the 1-5% of day traders who will ultimately achieve success.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:38 | 3570684 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Let's see: Tomorrow is Friday, it's a huge POMO day, and Friday's are traditionally bullish to the hilt.

S&P up 15-20 points tomorrow, today will be forgotten. If it was even being paid attention to while it was going on.

Big hockey night in Pittsburgh tonight. I should ask all of the idiots running around wearing Penguins jerseys if they know who are Hilsenrath and Tepper. They'd probably say it's some new country duo or something similarly stupid, if they even reply with more than a glazed look in their eyes.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:44 | 3570708 Dyhana
Dyhana's picture


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:49 | 3570723 css1971
css1971's picture


stocks actually fall



Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:54 | 3570745 Dr_Lucid
Dr_Lucid's picture

Ok I get it.  Massive POMO day tomorrow so they allow one member to speak up and let a little air out.  This is how they have planned all along to walk this down.

Overtime they will get the tone down right, for this round Williams was a pussy and didn't say enough.  So now they have a 50 point drop followed by too much POMO. 

That is their ammo, they need to equate the scary muppet statements leaked through the press with the magical buffering of God given POMO.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 17:14 | 3570802 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

David "Taper"

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 18:02 | 3570916 Devotional
Devotional's picture

I have a serious question now: I have been investing in physical gold, need I be worried for the future? Is this thing (gold) going to the dogs???

no sarcasm guys.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 21:36 | 3571398 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

No need to worry, gold is incredibly unreactive. It doesn't corrode away, or sublimate. It won't decay and even if it melts it costs very little to have the resolidified melt purified and returned to ingots. No, your gold, assuming that it's safe from government confiscation, is a great asset. You'll be glad you have it someday. Sorry for the sarcasm.  

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