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Tragic Trifecta: Initial Claims Soar, Housing Starts Plunge, CPI Below Expectations
We didn't really need a confirmation that the economy was deteriorating and completely disconnected from the "market", but we got it nonetheless. First, Initial Claims coming at 360K, on expectations of 330K, the worst print and worst miss in six weeks, confirming that weekly data is largely noise and that there is no sustainable downward trend. The May 11 weekly print adjusted and unadjusted were 360K and 318K respectively, virtually unchanged from a year ago at 373K and 325K, showing that in one year there has been essentially no progress, and that weekly initial claims of 350K is the new normal. Of course, the last week's print was also revised higher from 323K to 328K, while initial claims also missed expectations of a round 3MM print, instead printing at 3009K.
The second negative economic number came from Housing Starts, which plummeted from a downward revised 1021K to just 853K, well below expectations of 970K, the biggest miss since January 2007 and validating the data we have shown previously in the collapse of lumber prices. So much for the "that" recovery too. The silver lining - the "no capital requiring" housing permits which rose from 890K to 1017K, which as all hedge funds know, is the easiest way to game interest in the system.
Finally, confirming that the Fed's transmission channels are completely broken, and yet paradoxically giving Bernanke even more green light to continue building up future inflation and more QE, was CPI data, which declined from -0.2% to -0.4% in April, the worst MoM drop since December 2008 despite the monetary pumpathon from the Fed and BoJ. This is the second monthly miss in a row (and fifth of the last six). The YoY figures also misses +1.7% relative to a 1.8% expectation (ex Food and Energy) - also the lowest print since June 2011, although not very unexpected in light of the previously reported weak PPI data.. Much of the driver for this drop MoM and YoY are from a 4.3% drop in Energy prices MoM. That said, CPI would have been +0.1% if it was not for gasoline. Of course the bad is good mantra is in full swing as lower inflationary prints are providing ammunition for doves to push for more QE to defend their inflation goal. We wonder just how quickly oil prices will snap back once chatter of a taper is dismissed.
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Bullish!
This must be like living in paradise.
Oh crap.....we just lost Chris Matthews.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2013/05/chris-matthews-sours-on-obama-164095.html
I just got a tingly feeling...all over...oooooo...ooooooo...
I get that when I see pics of Kate Upton.
I get that when I find some ammo to buy!
Soaring unemployment? Must be some kind of mistake. Just ask those clowns at CNBC.
Bullish News ! Could not get any better.
" Economy is in early stages of recovery "
Eversince I woke up, I was in the early stages of going to bed.
When I was born, I was in the early stages of dying.
should be good for another 100 point up day!
At least a 100 points.
DOW 16000!
This is fucking hilarious
ONLY IF WE GET A GOOD REASON WHY IT HAPPENED!!!
"all because of more ripples in the ocean than last month..."
"because outher space got bigger...."
"because every person on earth aged on average 1 month since last month"
.....
Maybe the BLS will start coming clean after the IRS fiasco.
Well, don't bother asking the Justice Department; Eric Holder "Just Doesn't Know:"
http://www.buzzfeed.com/dorsey/eric-holder-just-doesnt-know
This 'Recovery' is like going into a Intensive Care Unit and seeing a patient completely hooked up to life support (the FED) and having someone say they are recovering nicely.
In other words, this "data" means absolutely nothing as that 85 billion per month will simply become 120 billion per month, then 300 billion etc. etc. etc. "Winning" - End the motherfucking Fed already.
If the economy keeps tanking the Fed will have to print even more and then the equity markets will skyrocket like there's no tomorrow. It all makes perfect sense, in a George Castanza Bizarro World, that is.
My two cents...would replace "if" with "as".
Or watching a Frankenstein movie.
"It's ALIVE!"
He's worse than dead, Jim. His brain is gone!
"Collaborators" and "Apologists" always run eventually. I guess Matthew's over/under on direct-implication felonious scandals ending right insdie the Oval Office is 3 1/2...Afterall, there IS a limit to tolerance.
Obama must not have let Matthews blow him last night. Sounds like a spurned cum guzzler
The useful idiots in the press starting to realize they ain't in the club?
Useful tools. Otherwise Eric the Placeholder sends his Just-Us goons over to rough them up.
Someone has to watch Chris Matthews which I have given up doing.
Lower starts, lower "inflation," higher initial jobless claims. Here comes da Fed? Again??
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/05/16/here-comes-the-fed-housing-starts-fall-jobless-claims-rise-and-inflation-falls/
Biggest month-over-month drop in CPI since January 2009:
http://www.forexfactory.com/
You can tell from the price action of TIP that a bunch of money knew that two weeks ago.
yes and lumber and gold and silver etc. but notice how with the news now out of the way gold is holding firm and being re-accumulated.
It was because of the insert excuse here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deuC8GPr31A
more stimulus needed, no sign of inflation, load the paper..........
yeah, with all these negative news, the Dow should pop another 2000 points! keep in coming! Ben will be printing $200 billion a month by Christmas!
The horror...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNUr__-VZeQ
Commencing final implosion countdown... 10, 9, 8...
Nope - market will yawn, that is until Europe Close, then to the moon! Fuck You Holder!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HdHrZSEPf4 - One of the best scenes in the movie... didn't make it into the original, but added in Redux.
This is all very bullish. Well done. Crank up the printing press Ben.
Yep. The taper is now off the table (although it was ever really on the table). Rally On!
Everyone please look at what happened to the stock market in Wiemar Germany when they turned on the printing press. Stocks just "may" protect you from the coming Currency Apocalypse.
And be sure to look at what happened to the gold Mark!
Oops.
There goes the angle that housing will get the economy out of the where it currently is.
It is just too sunny and warm to build houses.
Yepper, who could have predicted glaciers in Florida
LOAD UP GOLD
Yup, gold and silver down again, time to BTFD
The clear evidence of relentless deflation/eroding GDP growth is not good for gold.
But my rations of chocolate went up right?
Yes, because after torture you must really love big brother.
It is quite clear that the Doomers at ZH are unappreciative of the great beneficence that is The Amazing Bernank.
Some people just don't appreciate having sunshine blown up their arse every day.
And understand that there is no such thing as a free lunch.
Of course, the banksters aren't afraid to steal our lunch money, so they do get their lunch for free.
Your chocolate ration was doubled from 20 grams/week to 10 grams/week.
A portion of my silver holdings are "registered" to exchange for chocolate peace and sanity of the wife when SHTF.
ES actually dropped on bad news? Astonishing. I'm sure it'll be made up around 3:30, if not sooner.
What's tomorrows POMO? 5 billion? That Ben. He so crazy!
LOL.. yeah.. a whole 4 points
Yes! I can FEEL the savings on gasoline in my wallet. /sarc
Buffett needs to send out a tweet on this. Hopefully it won't be something like "help, I've fallen off the shitter into the bathtub and I can't get up."
A diet of exclusively Dairy Queen and Cherry Coke will do that to you...
call Quick, she can help him get up.
Watch out moon! Here comes the S&P!
Damn good news!! Inflate the Bernanke Bubble even more. S&P should be up 8-10 pts by noon. Please stow away all sharp objects.
Perfect time to start a war. Gets the media attention off the liar in chief and the imploding economy!
"Does this mean Ann-Margaret won't be coming, sir?"
Elvis was a lucky bastard.
http://vintageruminance.tumblr.com/image/47703900465
"Do you mind telling me what kind of fucking charade ends up with somebody turning up dead!?"
Quantitative Necrophilia --- The 3 Month T-Bill Is Telling Us The Economy Is Dead
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/05/quantitative-ne...
Some scary looking shit. Print anothor trillion Ben (and he will), treasuries need a bid.
Burn, Baby!! BURN!!!
Remember the Trammps?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_sY2rjxq6M
Uggh.
Bullish.
Buy Lockheed, Northrop, ....
Bad news =s New TH
Go ALgos!!! bring the suckers on while the CEO's dump their stocks
More signals that the FED can't let up yet. BUY! BUY! BUY!
Don't you short this market today. This is the greatest buying opportunity of all time. Quantitative Easing will drive stock prices higher and higher.
Stocks have never been cheaper. Well they were yesterday and the day before and the day before that.
yeah but, but, but, the market is forward lookiing remember?
Guess Barry O was too busy putting out the scandal fires to cook the books this week.
The only things that are selling well are guns, ammo, hard liquor and lotto scratch off tickets. If things get any worse, expect bombs to start flying soon. Hey, look over there at the squirrel.
BUY
THE
FUCKING
DIP,
SHIT
Add a new line, "HEAD", and you have a winner, otherwise that's like having, "Shit, piss, fuck, cunt, cocksucker, motherfucker, tits" string without the "tits" - it doesn't sound too good.
yes orangedrinkandchips!!! its that easy!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU
Clearly we need another Fed rate cut. We need real rates at negative 10% so everyone finally gets it in their head to buy 3 houses on credit.
If you pay me to buy a house (neg rates) I will, until then... too expensive.
I am sure the weather is to blame for all of this reversal. Things were going so well.
Imagine if the average citizen decided "Today the weather was not so great so I'm not going to work, or pay the bills, or feed the kids, or shower, or eat..."
See, anyone can be just like a great economist.
The most eloquent concise rebuttal to government bullshit I have ever read. I would up you a 1000 if I could.
No! It's the SOLAR FLARES!
http://www.myfoxny.com/story/22258955/sun-unleashes-strong-solar-flares
DON'T LOOK UP!
It wasn't the weather... It was actually MY fault and I feel terrible about it. Really, really badly. No shit, I'm sincerely sorry and I won't do it again. Until maybe sometime next week. Until then, my apologies.
I don't know if this news is just plain bullish or supercalifragilisticexpialibullish.
Keith McCullough says "Sell." #timestamp
I am pissed. http://youtu.be/audWg1VQ_94
DEFLATION NATION....makes it a tad difficult to manage our expansionary affairs....
CPI was up 0.1%, excluding fuel prices.
PLease, no fiat currency has ever died as a result of "deflation".
Oh GOD....and NOW Kohl's Misses....I am starting to get concerned.....
Government numbers can be trusted, really, this shit isn't gamed at all!
/
I called this on the first post of the day. It's good to be smart (or lucky).
where is million dollar boner hung over with chris matthews? reality sucks
"Jobless claims jumped by 32,000 to 360,000 in the week ended May 11, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the most since the end of March"
so in one week we have gone from full blown recovery, where QE(LOL) needs to be tapered, to a depression.
Geez - that's pretty glass-half-empty.
And WalMart is down......que the Walmart shoppers photos.........oh oh...the end is near if WalMart is down...the shoppers must be going to JCP now i guess....
Clearly this is because of the sequester. I hear that every time bad numbers come out, so it must be so. </sarc>
They will name the next major hurricane that destroys billions "Sequester" and that will really fuck with people's minds.
I think the last sentence meant to say "continuing claims". I hope it will be fixed for the record.
Deflation bitchez .. collapse in aggregate demand and blah blah blah
Dow 50,000,000.
Where I live in Europe, politicians are allowed to bear arms but not the common citizen? I wonder why ;)
Anyway, today's news is BULLISH of course ... for more BULLSHIT.
SO, time to load up on some Krugerrands :)
The gold to make them should have arrived this morning.
Ok, so the US stats are sliding down further now.
I'm not so adept at understanding domestic/international economic dynamics. Thus, the following QUESTIONS. Somebody please clear me up...
If it turns out that the continual unraveling of Europe and Japan does cause a capital flight to safety to the USD, my understanding is that this would make the dollar "stronger" and it would hurt US exports and push the US economy down even DEEPER than it is going.
By "make the dollar stronger" does that mean lots of capital moving into treasuries, etc. would maintain or give the USD more purchasing power domestically?
If so, would this be a deflationary characteristic?
Does this mean it would be good to be in cash or that cash would be king?
No matter what the QE money pushes the market higher.
DOW 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Now all we need is Israel to bomb something over the weekend and we can have an excuse and distraction from Benghazi/IRSgate/APgate........
I hope its not one of ours they bomb.
Dow to the Moon!!!
(cough, cough)
Dow to the Moon!!!
(cough, cough)
Hey, I didn't post twice.
So does this mean the the Tapering is going to be tapered ?
yet with all this horrible data, averages are flat to green. cant make this shit up.
There is another trifecta going on, the three separate news streams on the Benghazi attack, the IRS allegedly targeting conservatives and Tea Party groups and the massive bugging of Associated Press reporters. The timing of the IRS political actions and the AP bugging have pushed the Boston bombing incident into oblivion for now. The Obama administration is desperate to find a way to smother reporting on the Boston bombing. Ryan Fogel, the Moscow US Embassy third secretary/CIA functionary, had 100,000 Euros on him to offer to an FSB agent in return for information on Dagestan, where Tamerlan Tsarnaev went before returning to the USA to bomb the Boston Marathon. Implicating Russia in the Boston bombing is a priority.
The U.S. government ordered the shutdown of a large section of Boston and illegally imposed martail law to keep witnesses to a minumum as police and CIA mercenaries searched for fall guy Tamerlan. That strategy failed. The reason for the Obama diversionary stories is a video clip showing Tamerlan alive and being escorted by a police car and then, according to eyewitness audio on the RT show The Truthseeker on 3 May 2013, Tamerlan was then run over by a police SUV and shot multiple times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcxmAunB4Ck
In 1956, Confidential magazine was set to publish an expose on Rock Hudson, stating Hudson was gay. Universal International was desperate to stop Confidential from wrecking Hudson's career, so the studio made a deal with Confidential. For a payoff, Confidential published a story on another U-I actor, George Nader, branding Nader as gay. That story ended Nader's career as a major studio star. Right now, the Obama administration is following a similar game plan, protecting itself from any further attention on its role in the Boston bombing by releasing "George Nader" type news stories that divert attention from the murder of Tamerlan Tsarnaev.
Someone in the CIA must really have the goods on Obama, for him to toss AG Eric Holder under the bus.
but ,but, but...obama didnt know. or else he'd have fudged it better. chicago=criminal.the end