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Tragic Trifecta: Initial Claims Soar, Housing Starts Plunge, CPI Below Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture


We didn't really need a confirmation that the economy was deteriorating and completely disconnected from the "market", but we got it nonetheless. First, Initial Claims coming at 360K, on expectations of 330K, the worst print and worst miss in six weeks, confirming that weekly data is largely noise and that there is no sustainable downward trend. The May 11 weekly print adjusted and unadjusted were 360K and 318K respectively, virtually unchanged from a year ago at 373K and 325K, showing that in one year there has been essentially no progress, and that weekly initial claims of 350K is the new normal. Of course, the last week's print was also revised higher from 323K to 328K, while initial claims also missed expectations of a round 3MM print, instead printing at 3009K.

The second negative economic number came from Housing Starts, which plummeted from a downward revised 1021K to just 853K, well below expectations of 970K, the biggest miss since January 2007 and validating the data we have shown previously in the collapse of lumber prices. So much for the "that" recovery too. The silver lining - the "no capital requiring" housing permits which rose from 890K to 1017K, which as all hedge funds know, is the easiest way to game interest in the system.

Finally, confirming that the Fed's transmission channels are completely broken, and yet paradoxically giving Bernanke even more green light to continue building up future inflation and more QE, was CPI data, which declined from -0.2% to -0.4% in April, the worst MoM drop since December 2008 despite the monetary pumpathon from the Fed and BoJ. This is the second monthly miss in a row (and fifth of the last six). The YoY figures also misses +1.7% relative to a 1.8% expectation (ex Food and Energy) - also the lowest print since June 2011, although not very unexpected in light of the previously reported weak PPI data.. Much of the driver for this drop MoM and YoY are from a 4.3% drop in Energy prices MoM. That said, CPI would have been +0.1% if it was not for gasoline. Of course the bad is good mantra is in full swing as lower inflationary prints are providing ammunition for doves to push for more QE to defend their inflation goal. We wonder just how quickly oil prices will snap back once chatter of a taper is dismissed.



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Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:46 | 3568403 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:51 | 3568423 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



This must be like living in paradise.


Oh crap.....we just lost Chris Matthews.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:52 | 3568430 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I just got a tingly feeling...all over...oooooo...ooooooo...

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:53 | 3568442 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

I get that when I see pics of Kate Upton.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:55 | 3568453 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

I get that when I find some ammo to buy!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:11 | 3568517 WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

Soaring unemployment? Must be some kind of mistake. Just ask those clowns at CNBC.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:36 | 3568629 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Bullish News ! Could not get any better.

" Economy is in early stages of recovery "

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:49 | 3568691 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Eversince I woke up, I was in the early stages of going to bed.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 16:02 | 3570569 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

When I was born, I was in the early stages of dying.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:09 | 3568512 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

should be good for another 100 point up day!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:23 | 3568566 yogibear
yogibear's picture

At least a 100 points.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 11:07 | 3569128 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

DOW 16000!

This is fucking hilarious

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 10:21 | 3568672 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture



"all because of more ripples in the ocean than last month..."

"because outher space got bigger...."

"because every person on earth aged on average 1 month since last month"



Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:54 | 3568447 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Maybe the BLS will start coming clean after the IRS fiasco.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:01 | 3568473 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



Well, don't bother asking the Justice Department; Eric Holder "Just Doesn't Know:"


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:57 | 3568462 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

This 'Recovery' is like going into a Intensive Care Unit and seeing a patient completely hooked up to life support (the FED) and having someone say they are recovering nicely.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:10 | 3568516 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

In other words, this "data" means absolutely nothing as that 85 billion per month will simply become 120 billion per month, then 300 billion etc. etc. etc.  "Winning" -  End the motherfucking Fed already.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:42 | 3568662 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

If the economy keeps tanking the Fed will have to print even more and then the equity markets will skyrocket like there's no tomorrow.  It all makes perfect sense, in a George Castanza Bizarro World, that is.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:53 | 3568722 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



My two cents...would replace "if" with "as". 

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:23 | 3568570 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Or watching a Frankenstein movie.

"It's ALIVE!"

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:27 | 3568590 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

He's worse than dead, Jim.  His brain is gone!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:02 | 3568480 W T F II
W T F II's picture

"Collaborators" and "Apologists" always run eventually. I guess Matthew's over/under on direct-implication felonious scandals ending right insdie the Oval Office is 3 1/2...Afterall, there IS a limit to tolerance.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:17 | 3568551 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Obama must not have let Matthews blow him last night. Sounds like a spurned cum guzzler

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:18 | 3568554 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

The useful idiots in the press starting to realize they ain't in the club?

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:24 | 3568576 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Useful tools. Otherwise Eric the Placeholder sends his Just-Us goons over to rough them up.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 10:14 | 3568841 PiltdownMan
PiltdownMan's picture

Someone has to watch Chris Matthews which I have given up doing.

Lower starts, lower "inflation," higher initial jobless claims. Here comes da Fed? Again??

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:51 | 3568426 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



Biggest month-over-month drop in CPI since January 2009:

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:55 | 3568455 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

You can tell from the price action of TIP that a bunch of money knew that two weeks ago.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:13 | 3568534 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

yes and lumber and gold and silver etc.  but notice how with the news now out of the way gold is holding firm and being re-accumulated.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:23 | 3568569 Burt Gummer
Burt Gummer's picture

It was because of the insert excuse here.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:24 | 3568573 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

more stimulus needed, no sign of inflation, load the paper..........

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:53 | 3568719 Jdog
Jdog's picture

yeah, with all these negative news, the Dow should pop another 2000 points! keep in coming! Ben will be printing $200 billion a month by Christmas!


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:49 | 3568404 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

The horror...

Commencing final implosion countdown...  10, 9, 8...

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:54 | 3568441 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Nope - market will yawn, that is until Europe Close, then to the moon!  Fuck You Holder!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:58 | 3568467 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture - One of the best scenes in the movie... didn't make it into the original, but added in Redux.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:46 | 3568406 Sach Mahoney
Sach Mahoney's picture

This is all very bullish.  Well done.  Crank up the printing press Ben.  

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:05 | 3568494 Doomer
Doomer's picture

Yep.  The taper is now off the table (although it was ever really on the table).  Rally On!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:27 | 3568587 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Everyone please look at what happened to the stock market in Wiemar Germany when they turned on the printing press. Stocks just "may" protect you from the coming Currency Apocalypse.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 11:10 | 3569139 optimator
optimator's picture

And be sure to look at what happened to the gold Mark!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:48 | 3568409 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture


There goes the angle that housing will get the economy out of the where it currently is.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:57 | 3568461 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

It is just too sunny and warm to build houses.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:16 | 3568547 akarc
akarc's picture

Yepper, who could have predicted glaciers in Florida

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:48 | 3568410 cutefarts
cutefarts's picture


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:09 | 3568513 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Yup, gold and silver down again, time to BTFD

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:17 | 3568549 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The clear evidence of relentless deflation/eroding GDP growth is not good for gold.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:48 | 3568411 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

But my rations of chocolate went up right?

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:50 | 3568422 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Yes, because after torture you must really love big brother.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:54 | 3568449 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It is quite clear that the Doomers at ZH are unappreciative of the great beneficence that is The Amazing Bernank.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:58 | 3568465 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Some people just don't appreciate having sunshine blown up their arse every day.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:09 | 3568511 Doomer
Doomer's picture

And understand that there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Of course, the banksters aren't afraid to steal our lunch money, so they do get their lunch for free.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:52 | 3568432 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

Your chocolate ration was doubled from 20 grams/week to 10 grams/week.  

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:20 | 3568557 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

A portion of my silver holdings are "registered" to exchange for chocolate peace and sanity of the wife when SHTF.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:50 | 3568416 edb5s
edb5s's picture

ES actually dropped on bad news?  Astonishing.  I'm sure it'll be made up around 3:30, if not sooner.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:52 | 3568435 HD
HD's picture

What's tomorrows POMO?  5 billion?  That Ben. He so crazy!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:23 | 3568568 Chief Falling Knife
Chief Falling Knife's picture

LOL.. yeah.. a whole 4 points

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:50 | 3568417 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Yes!  I can FEEL the savings on gasoline in my wallet. /sarc

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:51 | 3568424 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Buffett needs to send out a tweet on this.  Hopefully it won't be something like "help, I've fallen off the shitter into the bathtub and I can't get up."

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:54 | 3568448 HD
HD's picture

A diet of exclusively Dairy Queen and Cherry Coke will do that to you...

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:14 | 3568537 akarc
akarc's picture

call Quick, she can help him get up. 

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:51 | 3568425 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Watch out moon!   Here comes the S&P!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:51 | 3568427 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Damn good news!! Inflate the Bernanke Bubble even more. S&P should be up 8-10 pts by noon. Please stow away all sharp objects.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:51 | 3568428 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Perfect time to start a war.  Gets the media attention off the liar in chief and the imploding economy!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:52 | 3568429 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

"Does this mean Ann-Margaret won't be coming, sir?"

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:59 | 3568469 HD
Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:04 | 3568489 realtick
realtick's picture

"Do you mind telling me what kind of fucking charade ends up with somebody turning up dead!?"

Quantitative Necrophilia --- The 3 Month T-Bill Is Telling Us The Economy Is Dead

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:24 | 3568575 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Some scary looking shit.  Print anothor trillion Ben (and he will), treasuries need a bid.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:52 | 3568433 horot
horot's picture

Burn, Baby!! BURN!!!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:00 | 3568470 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Remember the Trammps?


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:52 | 3568434 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture


Buy Lockheed, Northrop, ....

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:53 | 3568436 Kavklov
Kavklov's picture

Bad news =s  New TH


Go ALgos!!!   bring the suckers on while the CEO's dump their stocks

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:53 | 3568437 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

More signals that the FED can't let up yet. BUY! BUY! BUY!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:53 | 3568438 FJ
FJ's picture

Don't you short this market today. This is the greatest buying opportunity of all time. Quantitative Easing will drive stock prices higher and higher.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:01 | 3568477 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Stocks have never been cheaper.  Well they were yesterday and the day before and the day before that.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:11 | 3568521 akarc
akarc's picture

yeah but, but, but, the market is forward lookiing remember?

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:53 | 3568439 Che Guevara is Dead
Che Guevara is Dead's picture

Guess Barry O was too busy putting out the scandal fires to cook the books this week. 

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:53 | 3568443 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

The only things that are selling well are guns, ammo, hard liquor and lotto scratch off tickets.  If things get any worse, expect bombs to start flying soon.  Hey, look over there at the squirrel.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:54 | 3568451 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture






Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:05 | 3568488 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Add a new line, "HEAD", and you have a winner, otherwise that's like having, "Shit, piss, fuck, cunt, cocksucker, motherfucker, tits" string without the "tits" - it doesn't sound too good.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:12 | 3568528 kito
kito's picture

yes orangedrinkandchips!!! its that easy!!!!!!

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:56 | 3568457 Uncle Zuzu
Uncle Zuzu's picture

Clearly we need another Fed rate cut.  We need real rates at negative 10% so everyone finally gets it in their head to buy 3 houses on credit.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:51 | 3568703 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

If you pay me to buy a house (neg rates) I will, until then... too expensive.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 08:58 | 3568466 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I am sure the weather is to blame for all of this reversal. Things were going so well.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:00 | 3568471 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Imagine if the average citizen decided "Today the weather was not so great so I'm not going to work, or pay the bills, or feed the kids, or shower, or eat..."

See, anyone can be just like a great economist.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:09 | 3568510 akarc
akarc's picture

The most eloquent concise rebuttal to government bullshit I have ever read. I would up you a 1000 if I could.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:07 | 3568500 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No!  It's the SOLAR FLARES!


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:25 | 3568578 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

It wasn't the weather... It was actually MY fault and I feel terrible about it. Really, really badly. No shit, I'm sincerely sorry and I won't do it again. Until maybe sometime next week. Until then, my apologies.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:00 | 3568474 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I don't know if this news is just plain bullish or supercalifragilisticexpialibullish.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:01 | 3568478 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Keith McCullough says "Sell." #timestamp

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:02 | 3568482 lunaticfringe
Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:03 | 3568485 W T F II
W T F II's picture

DEFLATION NATION....makes it a tad difficult to manage our expansionary affairs....

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:06 | 3568497 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

CPI was up 0.1%, excluding fuel prices.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:23 | 3568567 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

PLease, no fiat currency has ever died as a result of "deflation".

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:04 | 3568490 W T F II
W T F II's picture

Oh GOD....and NOW Kohl's Misses....I am starting to get concerned.....

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:04 | 3568491 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Government numbers can be trusted, really, this shit isn't gamed at all!


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:07 | 3568501 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

I called this on the first post of the day. It's good to be smart (or lucky).

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:07 | 3568502 stant
stant's picture

where is million dollar boner hung over with chris matthews? reality sucks

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:07 | 3568503 cutefarts
cutefarts's picture

"Jobless claims jumped by 32,000 to 360,000 in the week ended May 11, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the most since the end of March"

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:09 | 3568505 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

so in one week we have gone from full blown recovery, where QE(LOL) needs to be tapered, to a depression.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:14 | 3568535 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Geez - that's pretty glass-half-empty.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:08 | 3568506 youngman
youngman's picture

And WalMart is down......que the Walmart shoppers photos.........oh oh...the end is near if WalMart is down...the shoppers must be going to JCP now i guess....

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:08 | 3568509 replaceme
replaceme's picture

Clearly this is because of the sequester.  I hear that every time bad numbers come out, so it must be so.  </sarc>

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:16 | 3568546 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

They will name the next major hurricane that destroys billions "Sequester" and that will really fuck with people's minds.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:12 | 3568530 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I think the last sentence meant to say "continuing claims".  I hope it will be fixed for the record.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:13 | 3568532 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Deflation bitchez .. collapse in aggregate demand and blah blah blah

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:16 | 3568542 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Dow 50,000,000.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:16 | 3568548 Devotional
Devotional's picture

Where I live in Europe, politicians are allowed to bear arms but not the common citizen? I wonder why ;)

Anyway, today's news is BULLISH of course ... for more BULLSHIT.

SO, time to load up on some Krugerrands :)

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:22 | 3568564 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

The gold to make them should have arrived this morning.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:20 | 3568559 alfbell
alfbell's picture


Ok, so the US stats are sliding down further now.

I'm not so adept at understanding domestic/international economic dynamics. Thus, the following QUESTIONS. Somebody please clear me up...

If it turns out that the continual unraveling of Europe and Japan does cause a capital flight to safety to the USD, my understanding is that this would make the dollar "stronger" and it would hurt US exports and push the US economy down even DEEPER than it is going.

By "make the dollar stronger" does that mean lots of capital moving into treasuries, etc. would maintain or give the USD more purchasing power domestically?

If so, would this be a deflationary characteristic?

Does this mean it would be good to be in cash or that cash would be king?

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:26 | 3568585 yogibear
yogibear's picture

No matter what the QE money pushes the market higher. 

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:31 | 3568606 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

DOW 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:38 | 3568642 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Now all we need is Israel to bomb something over the weekend and we can have an excuse and distraction from Benghazi/IRSgate/APgate........

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:59 | 3568755 optimator
optimator's picture

I hope its not one of ours they bomb.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:43 | 3568664 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Dow to the Moon!!!

(cough, cough)

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:43 | 3568665 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Dow to the Moon!!!

(cough, cough)

Hey, I didn't post twice.

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:49 | 3568697 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

So does this mean the the Tapering is going to be tapered ?

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:52 | 3568710 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

yet with all this horrible data, averages are flat to green. cant make this shit up.


Thu, 05/16/2013 - 09:57 | 3568744 Judge Crater
Judge Crater's picture

There is another trifecta going on, the three separate news streams on the Benghazi attack, the IRS allegedly targeting conservatives and Tea Party groups and the massive bugging of Associated Press reporters.  The timing of the IRS political actions and the AP bugging have pushed the Boston bombing incident into oblivion for now.  The Obama administration is desperate to find a way to smother reporting on the Boston bombing.  Ryan Fogel, the Moscow US Embassy third secretary/CIA functionary, had 100,000 Euros on him to offer to an FSB agent in return for information on Dagestan, where Tamerlan Tsarnaev went before returning to the USA to bomb the Boston Marathon.  Implicating Russia in the Boston bombing is a priority.

The U.S. government ordered the shutdown of a large section of Boston and illegally imposed martail law to keep witnesses to a minumum as police and CIA mercenaries searched for fall guy Tamerlan. That strategy failed. The reason for the Obama diversionary stories is a video clip showing Tamerlan alive and being escorted by a police car and then, according to eyewitness audio on the RT show The Truthseeker on 3 May 2013, Tamerlan was then run over by a police SUV and shot multiple times.

In 1956, Confidential magazine was set to publish an expose on Rock Hudson, stating Hudson was gay.  Universal International was desperate to stop Confidential from wrecking Hudson's career, so the studio made a deal with Confidential.  For a payoff, Confidential published a story on another U-I actor, George Nader, branding Nader as gay.  That story ended Nader's career as a major studio star.  Right now, the Obama administration is following a similar game plan, protecting itself from any further attention on its role in the Boston bombing by releasing "George Nader" type news stories that divert attention from the murder of Tamerlan Tsarnaev.  

Someone in the CIA must really have the goods on Obama, for him to toss AG Eric Holder under the bus. 

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 10:15 | 3568843 wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

but ,but, but...obama didnt know. or else he'd have fudged it better. chicago=criminal.the end

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