Michigan Confidence Soars To Highest Since 2007, Biggest Beat Of Expectations On Record

Tyler Durden's picture


In a day devoid of any A-grade economic data, the stop hunting GETCO USDJPY algos had no choice but to look forward to such reflexive C-grade indicators as the UMich Consumer Confidence index, where the polled "consumers" are confident if the market is up and the market is up if "consumers" are confident. Sure enough, the USDJPY literally exploded by over 50 pips and broke the 103 level (send the Yen derivative, the S&P500 spiking) when moments ago the UMich index posted a hilarious reading of 83.7, the highest since August 2007, up from 76.4, and smashing expectations of 77.9 by the most in... ever. Whether this was driven by a near record low in consumer savings, by the collapse in real wages, by the deteriorating Q1 retail results such as WalMart's showing consumers are out of cash, or if all this was irrelevant as everyone on the UMichigan rolodex was long Tesla is unknown. It just is what it is because in a world in which collapsing economic data leads to a record high "market", one buys first, buys second, then BTFD if there is D, and only then are questions asked.

Finally, if there is any confusion if consumer "confidence" tracks the market or the economy, we represent our chart from yesterday showing the now unprecedented divergence between the actual economic metrics and stocks.

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Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:11 | 3572720 Martdin
Martdin's picture

Markets want the D!

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:19 | 3572755 SHEEPFUKKER

The D as in Detroit, Michigan......a very confident place I've heard.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:20 | 3572759 Stackers
Stackers's picture

2000 Univ of Michigan students are very confident AAPL will have a new i-gadget for them to buy next fall with their student loans

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:22 | 3572766 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Don't underestimate the wisdom of the average Joe American. Americans are smart, and they know when the economy is growing and when it isn't. People can see the green shoots for themselves. They don't need to listen to ivory tower economists, when they can see new job opportunities and their home equity increase, or when they can refinance their mortgage at a fantastically low interest rate. The American people have spoken: this is a recovery, pure and simple.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:24 | 3572777 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Go on. Four hundred thousand repetitions will make it a truth!

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:25 | 3572787 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Four hundred thousand repetitions certainly makes it boring.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:29 | 3572805 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Maybe they ran out of toilet paper?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:37 | 3572848 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

I am happy !!! I was able to buy 1,000 rounds of .22 LR



Fri, 05/17/2013 - 11:25 | 3572925 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

anyone hear what the fukushima confidence reading is?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 13:24 | 3573400 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Hitler knew, the bigger the lie, the more people believe it. Our ministers of propaganda use it every chance they get. 

The confidence survey is tethered to the bullshit meter. Great results, everytime!

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 15:28 | 3573880 crosey
crosey's picture

One Viagra = Big

Two Viagra = Bigger

Three Viagra = POP!

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:30 | 3572811 Keynesian Mess
Keynesian Mess's picture

Because, you know, it is different this time!  They said so, and they wouldn't lie, would they?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 11:23 | 3573032 InTheLandOfTheBlind
InTheLandOfTheBlind's picture

go Joe!.... something about knowing is half the battle... blah blah blah..... where's my free shit?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:30 | 3572807 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

To this market the macro information doesn't matter, buuuut if the consumer confidence from UMich is good then it means everything!  Wow even the algos are programmed with animal spirits logic.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:33 | 3572823 HalEPeno
HalEPeno's picture

"Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance."

H L Mencken

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:42 | 3572867 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Let's see the demographics - age, employment, income, race - including political affiliation, of the aggregate respondees. Then we'll know if this is BS or not.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 11:09 | 3572980 loonyleft
loonyleft's picture

long time listener, first time caller. 

I think I really understand what MDB says and have to say that he makes a lot of sense and would like to subscribe to his newsletter.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 11:56 | 3573130 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Shut up MDB...damn you are an annoying little douche....


If you are written by someone satrically....you must be one fucked up individual...


If not, the same thing...


Either way...you're fucked up

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 15:29 | 3573891 crosey
crosey's picture

Is that you Benny boy?!

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:21 | 3572767 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

"Take him to Detroit."  ;-)


Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:34 | 3572833 Jdog
Jdog's picture

yeah! I was gonna say the same thing! Isn't Detroit Michigan going bankrupt? Not only the stock market move higher on all bad data, now confident place in bankruptcy places? lol talk about distortions?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:49 | 3572905 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Detroit is back. It is a booming. Good times are back again.

What is really needed is another $5T printed by FED. It is all.

Both Clinton and Obama families are planning to retire there.


What are they smoking up there?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 13:17 | 3573378 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

There's always the "Dead Wings" ....quite apropos,eh?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:21 | 3572763 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

JPM raising their price target.  There are no "d's"...ever.  The Dimon forbids it.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:26 | 3572774 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Its obvious the USD strength this week is because something is going to happen soon. Dont know what it is but War is most likely as the USD is the safe haven. It wouldnt matter at that time what gold spot price will be because you probably wont be able to buy it anywhere. And the fact that everyone is buying USD, they got to plow it into US stocks because at least they have a dividend over 0.25% interest which is nothing.

Everyone like CNBC can say it is good that the markets are ramping, but there are ominous dark clouds surrounding this silver lining. I hate to say it but its possible that US stocks can keep going higher even in the face of War because people who buy USD for safety will keep plowing into US equities for the extra yield.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:27 | 3572795 walküre
walküre's picture

Dividends will be decreased and then suspended soon. Companies are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:29 | 3572802 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

That is what I said yesterday and I got yelled at. Exactly right. Stocks and Bonds will benefit.

This market is so detached from the economy Tyler is wasting time putting up charts. This is money scrambling for higher ground, or percieved higher ground. The only question is what happens next. Bernak is about to shut off the QE spout because he knows that demand will be temporarily be filled. It's the equity holders that are going to realize they ran the wrong way.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:36 | 3572838 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Wow, I didnt see what you wrote yesterday fonz. I came to this thought myself though I have been saying this before but I think the time is near with this sudden USD strength. And I understand that dividends will be cut...but it wont be cut immediately and investors wont get out till the companies actually start cutting. Remember US companies balance sheet, for the most part, has improved as they hoard cash and cut expenses like wages. I am not saying US stocks will go higher forever, I am saying that this detachment between US stocks and the realities of whats going on can go even further than anyone can imagine. I hate saying this myself since I just had a nice slew of put options expire worthless today and some more over the rest of this year....so it pains me to say this.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:43 | 3572877 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you. I am looking at this a bit different. I think, from a different view....Stocks, bonds, real estate, art, physical pm's...reflect a global tsunami of money looking for the perception of safety.


Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:50 | 3572910 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Basically the prices we see on TV means JACK SHIT anymore...gold at 1360? who the fuck cares what Gold price is right now when all that matters is how much inventory you have stockpiled in 1 to 2 years time when shit hits the fan.

We need people with different views and mindsets to contribute to these weird circumstances these days so I like that you provide a different view to the masse....but its obvious that when things dont make sense, it wont last forever. I am just going to sit back and watch this unfold, no more shorting, no more buying anything into the equity markets. But one thing I will continue to do is to accumulate more physical gold and silver as prices continue to drop.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 11:40 | 3573080 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

I think 1 to 2 years time will be too late - i think big changes are on a closer horizon and physical will have a higher time/labor value generally (dollars, SDR's, whatever) if you can find it or have something worthy of exchange.

I would also guess that more are waking up and spending their green tickets in anticipation of the day-to-day lesser purchasing power - that inspires confidence in me to "spend" my green tickets!!

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:12 | 3572721 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

And just who did they talk to!?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:29 | 3572803 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Not sure, but they probably spent all their money on (Brave New World'esque) soma.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:12 | 3572722 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

Here come higher energy prices.  Enjoy...

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:13 | 3572727 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What in the fuck do people in Michigan have to be confident about? I guess if you hit rock bottom there is only one way to go.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:23 | 3572776 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

After the light house then one can go visit some of the friendly neighborhoods:



Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:25 | 3572786 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Doc if what you showed was real they would have included it in my commercial. I'm sure of it.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 12:10 | 3573171 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Those neighborhoods were once thriving, well kept areas filled with people with pride in their homes. I simultaneously feel sorry for those people who remain yet know they are the same ones that voted in, for years, a corrupt city government, a corrupt school board, and corrupt city service managers. Hell, there is a group of people now, supposedly city service workers, who are going to Hawaii for a conference. One of the guys is flying first class. They are staying at an internationally first class hotel. Their meal expenses are included and they get a per diem rate on top of it. The city has been corrupt for decades and still is. So while I might feel sorry for them on one hand, on the other I have no sympathy at all.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:29 | 3572806 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, isn't the fifth stage of grief acceptance?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:32 | 3572818 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

ask Dick Trickle.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 11:20 | 3573022 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I actually believe the results.  I think the older (35+) consumer has gotten their finances into manageable order and have stopped buying frivolous crap.  As for the under 35 crowd, why wouldn't they be confident?  Student and auto loans are easy to get and they truly believe that all of their debt will be forgiven.

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 12:04 | 3573151 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Thought the exact same thing Doc....this "measurement" has been taken over by Hopium as well.....



Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3572729 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Just reinforces what Charles Barkley said, "I don't care what people think.  People are stupid."

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3572730 Curt W
Curt W's picture

I am confident that the people are buying this smoke and mirrors charade

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:27 | 3572794 machineh
machineh's picture

Get back to your printing, Ben. 

What have you done for us in the past 30 minutes, anyway?

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3572731 Zen Bernanke
Zen Bernanke's picture

UoM is bullshit piled on top of more bullshit. 

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3572732 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Wealth Effect. Fuck yeah

Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:14 | 3572734 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

uhhhh....as more phones are disconnected only people with jobs\phones get called???



Fri, 05/17/2013 - 10:21 | 3572764 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Bingo!  There's the ansswer for me.

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