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RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 17th May 2013
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Does POMO money impact the stock market on the "operation date" or the "settlement date" most?
largest pomo day in weeks....nothing.
no volume. no sellers into the buying, no volum in anything it appears. is it just sitting there to to use if anyone shows up to sell?
buehler......buehler.......buehler.....
What I am asking is "is the $5 billion available today or Monday for purchases?"
today. its all trade plus to 3 to settle, but you can put in buys and sells same day evenif you dont have the cash from the sells to cover the buys right now.
This market looks so tired and so ready for a correction. Its just so hard to short this market given the implications of the strengthening dollar, Japan and foreign and other central bank purchases.
In any other time in history this market looks like it is super over bought and should be taking a breather. The disconnect between the macro and the markets is mind boggling.
In any case, it seems crazy to bet against the market. Maby the market isn't tired. Maybe its just me. Rational think seems to have no place in making calls in the market anymore.
I'd like to hear both rational and or irrational thoughts on where the S&P is going next week and why.
there is no rationale to the mkt. it is completely disconnected from fundamentals, macro, evenother asset classes. no one, retail that is, will sell for fear of missing out. pomo/options expiration day so nothing other than up should be expected. i am surprised at how little it has moved, thought 200+ on the dow for sure.
as prices gets higher, there are more and more money managers who want to book profits or say 'its too expensive for any NEW money to buy in". while 5b in pomo can make up a lot on the margin, if seller show up pomo can be overwhelmed.
my thought is yes its due/ripe/for a turn of some sort. but as small cap outpaces large cap and no reversals...its just up. i look for small cap to underperform, while treasuries are bought at the same time, that will be weakness, then a good reversal should confirm a 5% giveback. 1600 is a level ieverone is watching....but under 1645 will get you 1600 quickly and theres your 5%.
no one wnats to miss out, risk be damned---classic top euphoria, but is it 3% higher or 14%? or Monday? options expiration 2/11 then bam out of no where, -7% but since then post opex hasnt seen anything interesting
Thanks 1eyedman. So I take it that the "operation" day is the day that we should look for the potential ramp of the pomo and not the "settlement" day?