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S&P 1666
Whoever orchestrated the last two hour closing ramp sure has a satanic sense of humor, opting to close the S&P at 1666 or exactly 1000 points above the "generational" low. A late-day desperation to buy-buy-buy, triggered by an avalanche of stops being triggered in the DAX futures market (as it broke all time highs), sent stocks soaring. Treasuries had been weak all day (giving back yesterday's gains and more). The equity spurt was not accompanied by VIX or Credit or Oil or Copper but JPY's break of 103 was another trigger supporting the rise. But that doesn't matter. The release of weak IP and in-line CPI data on Wednesday seemed to trigger the 'change' as gold and silver diverged lower from copper and oil's surge, Treasuries rallied, and stocks and the USD surged thereafter. WTI crude ends the week unchanged (against a USD gain of 1.37%) with PMs down 6-7%. Volume was light today but that doesn't matter either.
It's been quite a ride...
And everything enjoyed that last hour or so...
Financials smashed everyone else this week...
and JPM was the winner...
But financial stocks are now well ahead of financial credit...
Interestingly today did not see the 'most shorted' names get monkey-hammered instead just tracking higher in price with the market - it was Wednesday where the monkey-hammering occurred...
So what happened on Wednesday?
VIX didn't like that late-day ramp at all..
Credit remains unimpressed...
Which, if we were gambling men, would suggest buying 3x HYG vs selling 1x SPY to take advantage of what is now a 6-sigma separation...
This was - perhaps surprisingly - the worst weekly drop in gold since Dec 2011 (worse than the crash week because we bounced so hard)... Gold closed -6.3%, Silver -7%.
And conveiently reminding us all that the markets are nothing but manipulated playing fields where roided up Barry Bonds hit homerun after homerun, and where central banks and algorithms toy with each other, one short second before the close, Anadarko traded from $90 to $0 in 50 milliseconds going from a $45 billion market cap company to $0. That's a rate of $1 billion per millisecond and $1 trillion per second: just an advance notice. Charts from Nanex:
Still think you will be able to hit bids when the time to sell comes?
But "it doesn't matter..."
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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Just resettled to 1667.47. A little later than normal. Headline will read "non-Satanic buy imbalance settles S&P to 1667."
My friends, we all blew it on this stock market run. We all should have ridden this thing up from like 8-9k when Tepper said the fed had a put on the market and was obviuosly going to keep printing. The problem was that gold was going up then and we were blinded. The fact of the matter is, we should have been discussing what that money printing meant to the stock market and how we could take advantage of it. it's we keep saying over and over that it is a fake melt up and it won't last and theres hell to pay etc. Of course there is hell too pay, but we should have been smart enough to have taken advantage of it and gotten out, maybe like a month ago for safety sake. Instead, we missed the whole thing. Zero hedge needs to turn into a site that is a little more subtle in its analysis so that we can work the middle and not just the one extreme
I'm more concerned with not having any debt, Fuck stocks.
Who says you have to have any debt. surely you had some money to put into the market. in retrospect, it was a no brainer. i didn't have the economic knowledge to know that at the time, but i guess i do now when it is too late. Frankly, it was a lack of intelligence on my part to cause me to miss this. i have no one to blame but myself.
I do have money in the market. Forex, commodities, etc..
Not interested in magnifying the wealth of the 1% with my money.
9000 EUR/JPY pips to be exact.
Bears during this were 100% right. They traded on fundamentals. They believed in free markets. No bear should be ashamed of that. They may be broke in profits but rich in ethics. What excuse can bulls give for their profits? It's blood money.
they shouldn't be ashamed but they should be embarressed by their lack of understanding of money printing, as i am. Everything is clearer in the rear view mirror, and it will all probably crash down, but we weren't subtle enough in our analysis. We should have been discussing when to get out, not to never get in because it is a fake market. Who has the money in their pocket. That is the scorecard, nothing else
You are going to play the insider's game, but without the insider's knowledge.
Personally, I am preparing for the approaching end-game, knowing when the end-game will happen was never the goal (because as a non-insider it is impossible).
I don't know where my journey will take me, but I am quite confident of the destination (fiat death).
it's not an insider's game. it's basic economic law. the government prints money ,the market goes up. Jesus, even if i just risked 10k on the large cap stocks, i would now have 20k with dividends. there's nothing insider about that. I fortunately bought a bunch of r.eal estate so i am hoping to cash in on that. But it was like the monopoly card, take a ride on the reading and collect 200 if passing go. It really was that easy
$20k w/o dividends if you sold today, sure. Assuming your choice was specifically gold or the S&P, the S&P looks a good choice AT THIS POINT IN TIME. Going forward that may not be the case.
So? The rear view is so nice, ain't it?
Think of the present. Stocks are supported by QE and are already at all-time highs. Gold is supported by QE and is sold at a severe discount (about hundredfold).
I buy low and sell high. What do you do?
i have lost money, but money cones and goes, but i have gained priceless knowledge, i will be with ZH till moment zero.
And having taken that course... where, pray tell would "you" have jumped out? Self flagellation not allowed. If you protected yourself, ya done good. Only the algos will come out w/profits in the long run. Remember, its all paper fantasy until you sell, and then what do you buy?
it's still not too late to get in
I mean, nothing's really changed, we still have QE to infinity
my portfolio, if you can call it that, is net bullish and has been since about February, so I'm finally clawing back some of my losses.
How do you know you will be able to buy gold with your paper profits when you decide to close your position?
You can gamble so that you'll be able to buy more gold later before the gold window closes. But when it does, it will close rapidly.
Hedge accordingly.
Wow:
That statement in the context of the graph sent a chill down my spine. I instinctively knew when the collapse comes, it would be fast, but my mind really hadn't grasped that everything could just go to zero instantaneously, but this proves it can. I was thinking days, not microseconds. Eye opening.
but yo, i thought there were circuit breakers
Only ball breakers, it seems.
Really? Many indexes and stocks up @ least 100%. Where do I sign up for the 100% gains followed by a poor fill in an illiquid market? I would take that trade any day.
I've heard about climbing a wall of worry, but how, pray tell, does one so easily scale a wall of bacon-wrapped horseshit ? !
(New training cassette developed for CNBS guests: "well, golly gee, bad news is good news because the Fed and European ministers [aka 'sinisters'] will come to the rescue; and good news is good news because it proves the sinisters' scheme is working; and neutral news is good news because it means things are in equilibrium; and a simultaneous release of both bad and good economic reports is good news, as it proves the remaining bad seeds in the economy are about to be trounced by the green shoots, which of course are the result of sininster intervention . . ." )
Complain about the so called idiots all you want, but who is and who is not making any money? that should be the first question
You haven't made any money unless you've taken your chips off the table, until then it's all just paper profits. I take my winnings and by real things. I've been playing with the bank's money for a long time. If they want it back they can take it.
thats the point. we could have taken the profits right now and at least doubled up.
You keep thinking in paper terms. As if USD were money, and an increase in the amount of USD you own means "profit".
Instead, ask yourself: If I gamble with the paper markets, will I be able to convert my "profits" into actual money before the gold window closes?
You could make a million USD and it wouldn't matter: if the gold window closes tomorrow, you wouldn't even be able to spend it.
Think about it.
What happens if that was enough peoples plan?
(Hmm ... must be MDB's cousin).
Not sure where you hallucinated the inference to 'idiots', or the non-existent sell recommendation, but the post simply pointed out features of the current market, as well as the hapless nature of financial TV guests who, despite their mantras, are in NO WAY fully invested, nor even half-invested, in these markets (just examine the quarterly performance reports -- either they're on the sidelines or all in AAPL.)
Only a fool would assume all ZH readers, despite agreeing with the editor's stance on Bernanke's actions, have been short these markets. This is an entertainment site, and most traders, at least day-traders like me, are purely technical, and don't short on principle. Even so, a stealth ramp at 2:30 on a Friday, many hours after the positive confidence figures came out, long after most Wall-Streeters were on the golf course, is a bit curious. Perhaps mutual fund monies coming in from individuals taking Friday off ? -- the fund flow data should tell in due time. Today didn't feel 'organic', nor even purely algo-driven, but seemed to be forced late-day buying from large public and mutual funds, who couldn't take the time to work price, play with VWAP, etc.
Though I'm convinced a short-term short of 200+ points will come within 5 days, I'm equally convinced any longer term shorts that don't wait for a clear signal (say a MACD below the center line on a monthly chart, with DMI support) are using their hearts to invest rather than an organ higher up.
Comment did not imply or indicate anyone was shorting the market. I took it to represent the dumb money is generating the highest returns. Intelligence seems to be detrimental @ present.
When ignorance is bliss, tis folly to be wise?
exactly. and that is the point i am trying to make. if the dumb guy gets all the money, how smart can i really be?
Again I ask, hyperinflation?
perhaps that is what it is but prices haven't budged except for the ones that count like Food, Gas, etc.
those who wish for hyperinflation will rue the day it occurs...
The balls of these folks..!! To do a blatant practice flash crash on a big up day..!! WOW...!!
Silver can fall all the way back to 4 dollars. There are no rules. Gold can fall to 300 dollars. It could.
If you had one of three choices, would you:
A. Hang banksters
B. String them up by their balls with a long rope and then pour sand up their asses until the rope breaks
C. Both
The Fed can't let the Dollar get that strong though...remember, they have to pay back bond holders (suckers) in Dollars on maturity. They like doing that with devalued Dollars for obvious reasons....
you back the truck up guys are the same ones that have been saying it since gold was $1600 earlier this year. Keep on backing.....
I think gold will eventually do well, but who the fuck knows when? I sure as fuck don't. I have had my balls handed to me for putting too much into miners this spring...OUCH I TELL YOU. OUCH
Exactly. Me too. We were stupid brother. We underestimated Bernake and the levers he and the other central banks pull. I had shitloads of money in a retirement account sitting in cash for years for christ's sake. i ain't backing the truck up to anywhere excpet to my garage to get rid of some furniture.
I told my colleague here a couple of hours ago that "I'd feel a lot richer if I could stop feeling so fucking stupid." so fuck it. Gonna go hit some golf balls to remind myself that less is more and more is less. have a great weekend ZH'ers.
amen to both of your comments. I feel the pain!
we have to reexamine ourselves psychologically. What made us get to the point where we were oblivious to the most obvious thing, money printing sends the stock market up. We all read it over and over again in the last 3 years. We believed what we believed because there was a flaw in ourselves psychology. Livermore said the market is about overcoming yourself. I see that now. We all know the statement that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. We just learned the truth of that lesson. Sinclair has lost a lot of my respect. He was saying to get stoke certificates, and now he is saying take your money out of the bank. What the fuck is he talking about. It's obvious that the banks are not crashing today or tomorrow but if at all sometime in the medium future. That's the problem. We thought and think in absolutes. We didn't know how to ride the middle. We were flawed psychologically.
You are exactly, absolutely, unequivocally, 100% correct. I also recall, however, that Livermore lost his shirt on more than one occasion, especially in the commodity space which is, as it turns out what most of us are watching.
Perhaps we congregate here as a sort of confirmation bias? The market is manipulated. I refuse to play sounds like a petulent kid. Doubling our money is much more entertaining than waiting to be proved correct. There was radio show in my market (Texas) many years ago. The guy said something that still resonates with me. The market was moving against his long held thesis. Recongnizing this he acted, commenting, I would rather make money than be right!
I do think we congregate for a sort of confirmation bias. The problem is the bias has a strong negative bent, not positive? Is that healthy?
I stopped deciphering between negative and positve a long time ago. It's just reality. If the market tanks form here and it turns out Goldman set themselves up short and now they make out like bandits does that make them positive?
To me positive/negative connotations are what the media uses to help you along with cognative disonnance.
It's about seeing through the bullshit and being prepared, in whatever way you feel is right.. Don't get swayed by momentum.
I caught much of the intial rally off 2009 lows. However, @ some point made the decison the markets got ahead of fundamentals. Every time I reduced my risk the market punished me. It gets to the point I feel more pain from leaving money on the table than losing during a sell off. We get conditioned and complacent, which sets us up for the fleecing. Dude in the office next to me has been long and strong because CNBC told him to. He couldn't tell you if the market was up or down (and kicks my ass). I keep waiting (and waiting) to show him how smart I am...
I bought a bunch of real estate so i was lucky there i hope. Sounds like dummy in the office was not so dumb after all. He's cracking the Crystal open this weekend. You and I are depressed.
I totally know what you mean. Dude next to me is also making a shitload. He told me his "secret" is that he watches Cramer every night. Yet he could couldn't tell you the frst thing about how any of it works. He thinks an "income statement" is when he is telling me how much money he is making. He thinks he's a fucking genius. I've spent 20+ years actively trading, including several years full-time (profitably) and not just during the dot com years, and this guy is trying to tell me how to successfully trade? Watch fucking Cramer?! That's his secret? Yeah, I feel your pain.
This year I was short gold and stocks, thinking the economy would start softening again, something the bulls said back in January wouldn't happen, and a bit of a deflation scare once again as the economy decelerated. The gold shorts have offset a little of my SPY shorts, but not much.
#shoeshinestockpicks
Brother, waiting for the axe to fall. Who could have known the laws of physics could be suspended this long?
When the plug eventually gets pulled, the crash will be spectacular.
It will. I fear, that along with FRN's, PM's will suffer the same fate. JiT WILL SHUT DOWN. Nothing will be of value, other than trying to survive daily - ie, food, water, shelter - human basics. Then again, the grand masters may keep this shit tug boat chugging through the ocean of poo for years more. I don't think anyone knows for sure, like the above poster indicated the laws of physics have been suspended...
They are going to keep printing. it won't crash, not this time. it might hyperinflate but that's it. there will be time to get out then. People will be piling in. Maybe that is now. But up till now, the market has been in a slow steady climb. No hyperinflation there.
Perhaps. However, I would rather be the one with the thick wallet and an opportunity to lock in some of those gains verses hoping to dish out some eventual schadenfreude. One wonders the gains we will leave on the table waiting?
I'm convinced, I'm opening a brokerage account this weekend.
/serious
Of course the bottom in 2009 in the S&P was 666 points...maybe it's code that the AntiChrist is alive and soon to be revealed...
Friday night, it's GOZER TIME!
Seeing 666 somewhere in market numbers is really quite common over the past 6 years that I've been paying attention.
Usually you see it somewhere in the gold price.
I seriously wouldn't doubt that its not a signal.
Probably means a top for snp, dare I say!
Numerology is used in subconscious programming because specific sets of symbols are readily recognizable to a wide array of individuals, also because specific numbers trigger specific groups, while others are more general, like round numbers, halves, quarters...
These psychological triggers are employed every day in marketing, i wouldn't put it past nank'n'crew to utilize such structures to trigger herd movement. (only 99 cents!)
It's like training a dog to recognize different intonations in a whistle..
Now if you were a banker and you had sold your soul ( to me ! ) just where do you think the winning VFDOTM strike prices would be?
A very wealthy chosen one once made the comment: "When I want to sell $500M I first buy $100M".
Personally, I refuse to begin a transoceanic flight on a plane whose engine is seriously overdue for maintanence. The best I can do is not take the flight but buy some insurance anyway...safe haven long bonds (TLT/TMF).
Was just on sinclair's site and he is saying gold at 50k is possible. Since i am venting, I will vent a little more. He was the one who took me to the dance. I choose not to leave the dance without him. That was part of my problem. Now all i see is him drunk on the dance floor making a fool of himself. It's embarressing. It's time for me to leave alone. It's just something i have to do.
tao I don't trust guys like sinclair just like I don't trust cnbc. Money printing makes stocks go up? Maybe. But Japan's market dropped 90% after they embarked on QE.
Don't take this the wrong way but you are setting up for another fall. When this move in stocks reverses you will see years worth of gains gone in days. I am not here to sell you gold or bonds or stocks etc. Here is the dilemma...what is safe? Forget about trying to make money. It's all about preservation because even the most simpleminded imbecile right now knows stocks are a bubble. But the smartest guy in the world right now is having a hard time deciding what is not, and the banks have shown their hands. Your deposits are not safe.
Good luck to all of us.
Because i believe what you just said, I don't know if I am stupider or not. I followed sinclair from like 2002. i never went extreme and sold everything and bought all gold, thank god. I only have about 5% of my total assets in gold. However, I should have listened to Faber when he said over and over again that money printing pushes the market up and at least put my retirement money into the market. I mean re ally, when you think about it, how can you go wrong with pfizer, ge, exxon, wells, pepsi, apple/google. If the world crashes, they will still be standing, as they did last time. If I could have been a shitty timer and got out now, I could have made a mint off of them, more than a double bag
You mentioned we have to evaluate ourselves psychologically. I agree. I can't do it without zooming out. When I zoom out all I see is that the debt will not allow interest rates to rise. Ever. I take it a step further and I see that the U.S eventually has to inflate it's way out or hard default. Both lead me to an eventual currency crisis. I understand that the dollar is strong right now but I don't think we get a free pass forever. So while I don't disagree with your thoughts about pfizer etc, and it makes sense to be diversified. I am trying to win the game and not play quarter by quarter.
Everything with me brings me back to the debt and interest rates. I will watch them play their games with the markets but I have no doubt where the end game is, and I don't want to get caught trying to make a quick buck between now and then.
I agree a hundred percent. Still wish i had invested in the market, cashed out and had that new Audi a-6 in the driverway. and that is not being greedy either. It was so simple in retrospect. I just didn't listen to what i was hearing.
Here's another thing. When it all crashes, you and i and others will be so happy we were right. What does that say about us as well. Human beings are so flawed.
"Here's another thing. When it all crashes, you and i and others will be so happy we were right."
I would insert the word prepared. It is what it is. At the end of the day nature dictates that the smartest and most prepared usually are the ones that make it. I don't question it.
For someone named tao you aren't very philosophical.
"When it all crashes, you and i and others will be so happy we were right."
No, we will be happy the corrupt edifice has come crashing down. No more, no less.
Say you had put $10k into gold on Jan. 1, 2010. Bought at $1100 or $1200. Walked out with 9 ounces, lets say. Fiat value today: $12,240.
Or into the Dow at 11,000. $10k bought you the .9 units of the index. Now those .9 units would be worth $13,960. Thats only 14% more over 3.5 years. And past performance is no indicator of future results!
That feeling of righteousness / shadenfraude is always tempered. Currently, we are the ones fighting conventional wisdom so must wear the tin foil hats. And when we are deemed correct, there can be no gloating because of the despair and suffering around us. Only pricks throw down an "i told you so" to someone in pain. Being contrarian is a lonely path.
A thankless job, definitely. Maybe not rub it in, but damn, I don't think I will mind reminding people!
Zoom out while still centered on yourself, what is currently in relation to you of the system at large.
Tao, I feel your pain. Once QE forever was announced I had to make a decision. I needed to get longer. Obsessed enough to be in my accounts each day, I decided to appease myself by dollar cost averaging in a little every day. Just taking some sort of action made me feel better, and not shooting my wad @ a potential top allowed me to sleep @ night.
It is frustrating to discuss the ominous storm clouds on the horizon, while everyone is outside dancing while the sun is shining…
I don't think gold is ever going to stay at 50k.
First step is for COMEX default bringing paper gold price to $0.
Then gold is liberated, and may hit high prices (e.g. 50k) through alternate channels.
But that won't last long. If the manipulation can't be restored, we're headed for hyperinflation. Then we have a gold price of $infinity. I.e. no amount of USD is able to buy a single ounce.
So, the closer to $0 it gets, the happier you should be. Because it means we're getting closer. Remember, it's only the paper price. This price has nothing to do with the value of actual gold.
"short squeeze"...Ain't nothin but a good "bear hug", for this "BEAR"!! Besides, I'm in it to win it/no pain no gain...I B patient over here.
still "shorting" and "stacking"
Whether you believe in religion or not I hope you realize the psychopaths place a great deal of value in imagery, numerology and religion of a sort.
March 6, 2009 666
March 17, 2013 1666 (1667 actually)
Difference between dates 1473 days
Sistine Chapel built in 1473
Sistine Chapel contains The Last Judgement
Signal for the emergency G-7 meeting this weekend?
Or all just coincidence?
I keep googling about that emergency meeting but l only find it mentioned on some silver site. That's the last thing i want to read about right now, some silver guy hyping pms.
Gotta double check everything when I'm multi-tasking
Same results though
actual date is may 17 or 1534 days
1+5+3+4=13
Look up extensive use of the occult meaning of number 13
Including the 13th sign of the zodiac Ophiuchus
duplicate post
You may find this interesting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNjJe7D090E
S&P500 Hourly - up over 130 points in less than a month.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-hourly-nears-channel-resistance-s...
With the US Dollar climbing sharply, this is not going to end well.
Gold Top $4000-5200 oz
Silver Top $125-150 per oz