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The S&P 500 Is Now A Gambler's Paradise With 76.9% Up Days In May So Far
Submitted by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity blog,
Everyone knows the odds of winning in a casino are worse than 50% (often much worse depending on the game played). So who wouldn't rush to a casino where, instead, the odds were overwhelmingly in the gambler's favor?
That's the promise of today's stock market, which has been experiencing an aberrantly high percentage of up days all year. Toss your money into the market and on any given day, you're much likelier to make money than not.
So far, May 2013 has been a gambler's paradise, in which a whopping 76.9% of the trading days for the S&P 500 have been up:
The chart below shows just how far 2013's up day percentage exceeds previous years:
Of course, none of this boondoggle is merited by the underlying fundamentals, which clearly are not good.
But if you're one of the top 10% of Americans that owns 81.2% of all stock market wealth, send a bottle of Bollinger to Ben and his buddies at the Federal Reserve as thanks for keeping the punch bowl so nicely spiked:
However, if you're one of the 9% of Americans who actually understands the concepts of "reversion to the mean" and "overshoot", you may want to run -- not walk -- to cash in any chips you may still have on the table. But if you have to keep money in the stock market, be sure to work with a prudent financial adviser that prioritizes risk management and is skeptical of today's easy winnings.
Like all good benders, this is going to end with one heck of a hangover...
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In entirely unrelated news:
In the long run, the Obamas have faith in the U.S. economy. Roughly 15 percent of the Obamas’ money is invested in S&P 500 stock index funds, which in general rise or fall along with the U.S. economy.
If BO tossed on Travon's hoodie and walked 8 blocks west of his Chicago home without armed bodyguards or a stack of cash, he would be dead before 'Church on Sunday'.
And when The One rose from the dead, would he say, the fella that did it looked just like the son I never had?
This calls for another Beer Summit! ;-)
Visualizing the perpetual motion machine created by Bernanke. It really is a masterpiece illusion:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0v2xnl6LwJE
you may want to run -- not walk -- to cash in any chips you may still have on the table. ''''
Hey ZH guys, go fuck yourselves. I wish I had believed Ben earlier rather than being decieved by all your ZH bullshit.
Hail Bernanke.
Fuck you ZH.
YOU SAID SHORT STOCKS, STOCKS RISE
YOU SAID LONG GOLD, GOLD FALLS
HAS THERE BEEN A BIGGER BOILER ROOM ASSHOLE THAN YOU SINCE 2009? NO!
Well aren't you just a fucking rainbow in the morning?
Its not going to end...
I think that we found the rube that's going to catch the falling knife thrown by TPTB. Without "heroes" like him, the fall would be much steeper.
It'll fall
It'll fall
It'll fall
It'll fall
It'll fall
Blah
Blah
Blah
Yup, all of you bears have been shorting the past 4 years based on this 1 hope... Never learn from your mistakes, do ya?
A lot is said about stocks being useless paper gains. Well, at this point I can still sell my stocks, go down to Dicks and buy a lifetime supply of golf balls.
Here is how the S&P so far this year compares to the 1987 melt-up:
http://stockmarketadvantage.com/the-sp-500-2013-versus-1987/
Rajat is right (at least from a traders perspective). In todays world we have no free markets anymore and you have to prepared for giant manipulations. For example the current Yen downward manipulation manipulates the Nikkei up. Learn from that and don't be surprised that the US Stock maket can go even higher when the USD falters. However, it's not a bad idea to fade a rising stock market and buy some physical Gold with the proceeds.
You my sir are a blind idot.
ZH is merely a barometer for the real world.
What you so naively refer to is the manipulated and fake paper and digital stock world.
It would do you some good to not use ZH as an investment tool but as a gage for the timing in which real world and fake world will realign.
Open your eyes, open your mind...
Real world in 3,2,1...kick the can, real world in 3,2,1...kick the can, real world in 3,2,1...BOOM you're all fucked without a valid option
It wasn't raining when noah built the ark
Who the hell could down vote a taxpayer provided beer with The One? ;-)
CHECK OUT THE weekly charts on RUSSELL HERE
is in inverse head and shoulders and make me think the market is about to leave skid marks in the bears pants....or shall we say look out above.
I am not sure about a gamblers paradise, but yes they want things right up, so the next crash they can make not just a bit of money but SHIT LOADS. Say no more.
The future is easily predicted using the crystal orb known as the pomo schedule...
However, the printer grows weary and his rat faced friends will have word before you. Buy the dip, be observant, be careful.
Yes, gold is down and may go lower. So buy now, before they outlaw and confiscate. That is not a joke, but a historical fact.
Only 23 point more to hit Goldman's level of prowess.
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm
Operation Date: 05/17/2013
Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time: 10:15 AM
Close Time: 11:00 AM
Settlement Date: 05/20/2013
Maturity/Call Date Range: 02/28/2018 - 02/15/2019
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $5,469
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $22,042
_______________________________________
Today holds he highest Amount Submitted since the start of POMO.
Someone is unloading.
In bulk.
Now.
PDs.
http://www.zimbabwe-stock-exchange.com
Lets party likes it's 1929
BTFD
Bender, Bitchez!
If you own shares you haven't gained anything, unless you sell and realize the profit. On the other hand, if you are a fund manager, you can charge cash fees on unrealized profit on your holdings. The second group contain the real winners from this long share ramp.
glad to see the up arrows on this wonderful comment..."you're only scratching the surface" unfortunately. when the music's playing you gotta dance...which is a nice way of saying if you're in this market at all you'd better be using a paid profession "and not your crazy ideas." the only thing of missed having been out two weeks is an annihilation of gold and silver. obviously this is enhancing the value of paper MASSIVELY so nay...veerily, "that's real money Mr. Fatcat." i'm still sticking with my treasury bet (and it is a bet)...one does not "regret" a trade no matter the pain of "missing out." the basic thesis so far remains more intact than before since the only thing that has change is a ferocious continuations of the market rally...which does little for economic growth (certainly not the last 30 years of one has) but does do wonders for paying down the deficit. since crazily the Government wants to stick it to the taxpayer after bailing out the .000000000000001 percent i'm relatively confident that the political imperative to simply stay the course ("just have Wall Street pay for everything") will remain in place for the forseeable future...which still leaves open the opportunity for a plain old fashioned correction. again you won't hear me say...as Goldman Sachs did..."short gold" (how did that trade work again?) ...the longs have been squeezed beyond belief in what is truly an epic rally of a panic low. once the US economy gets into its "stick to the man" (in Europe and Japan) mode i think the profound seriousness of this rather combination of a Super Rally in equities with no commensurate rally in the economy at large will reveal itself to be exactly as it is: a society that simply will work itself death "but hopefully not before it kills you first." http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/tsla?source=search_general&s=tsla
EXACTLY.
This is where the house lets you get a cherry or a $20 777's when you have $100 in so they can string you along.
The house always wins, and the state taxing a part of the proceeds at the casino as well.
Get a free drink and get laid at the least if you are blowing $ in this casino.
stiiiilllllll waiting / s
A giant asteroid named 1998 QE2 is about to pass very close to earth on May 31. Does this portend something? Like something is going to crash to earth?
I thought you were making a joke on the name of that asteroid. Probably the best Friday humor I have seen, I think that's Astro-Physicists throwing some puns our way.
Fuck this sham of a Ponzi, pathetic Banana Republic market and chicken-shit society.
"If you feel now may be the right time for you, or you are otherwise interested in learning more about our endorsed financial advisers and potentially being referred to them, please fill out the form below."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hrxde-Uslo
This guy can't even afford hair club for men?
Wot a loser...
They must be getting ready to kill us.
Long body armor and respirators.
Really?
Its either a day or it isn't.
or is there a tenth of a day not up?
This intoxicated drunk of a market is going to end up on the train tracks just when the wheels fall off. Right now, the corks are being popped and the party is in full swing - so sad for those that believe in paper wealth.
Stops aren't going to help you when you hear the horn.
You won't even hear the horn. It will probably take a second or two to realize your head has been separeted from your shoulders.
This market is going to keep going up.
In a nominal way, your 110% correct.
Maybe for a bit more, and violently more. But when the music stops it's going to hurt.
+1 Fonz. Much moar silent & violent.
Yen can you picture the day rates finally start going up for real? Imagine being in a 401(k) when that happens and you have to choose between a bond fund getting slaughtered and a stock fund getting ravaged by input costs tearing an ass in every corporation. Your money market fund has magically disappeared and you have to choose between two burning houses. That's gonna hurt.
Tyler prints the spreads every day Fonz. HYG spreads/ vs take your pick. The divergence in corporate bond yields, and risk(borroworing) have been one of Tyers main concerns.
It's just going to happen so fast. Junk freezes and the scramble for liquidity gets unleashed. Crazy shit is on the way.
We've ben through alot over the last couple of years. Shit is going to get crazy. I have just had trouble defining risk.
Everybody is. It's even harder to define safety.
I am listening to Schiff talking about how Crude is about to break out bigime upwards all over the world.
Thats a doomsday scenario Fonz. Schiff has a book to talk, and we both know he's stacking physical.
FONZ, Shiff is a male, Blythe...
Inflation is on the way. It's the chosen way out.
Run to the hills! "China came across the seas" . Iron Maiden - Run To The Hills - YouTube
link?
"We've ben through alot over the last couple of years"
Brilliant play on words Yen.
The skies are the limit, then you enter the "Twilight Zone".
Up to hell?
Only in Bizzaro World.
up forever. geez, i just so hate myself for selling bac stock at 55 back in 2009. i KNOW i'm going to get that back.
and let's not forget about my GE stock at 45.
this all is just amazing. really amazing.
I wish I'd held those Krugers instead of selling at $800.
Edit: That'll never happen again.
Self-Absorption, Greed, Ignorance and... Inertia.
That's all.
I wonder which one will first hit the wall, and which ones will survive, to go on and live another round.
I'm up 17% in the last five weeks on a total of 14 trades. My buddy is up 48% on five trades. There is definitely easy money to be had.
Buy the F**king Dip Guito. Get'er Done>
lol...Vinnie!...what tax bracket are you in...and your "buddy"?
And watch those wash trades, wouldn't want you to get in any trouble with the IRS ;-)
Looks like there's been plenty of easy pizza to be had too...
"I'm up 17% in the last five weeks on a total of 14 trades. My buddy is up 48% on five trades."
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that your "trades" were all long buys on equities/equity options? Yours is the kind of statement many "traders" made during the dot-com era when you could hardly lose money if you just bought and waited. That's not trading. But in the interest of full disclosure, I didn't DA you; although your post is a combination of boastfulness, uselessness and cluelessness.
"Everyone is a genius in a bull market". The same holds true for a Fed-bought phony bear market rally.
I can't believe these dimbulb "rajat" kids don't know a parabolic blow-off when they see it.
Don't confuse brains with a bull market, which it will continue to be as long as the Fed keeps feeding the Bencoins into the Pachinko machine.
S&P500 up 17% in 2013 - weekly chart below.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-closes-in-on-channel-resis...
The Nikkei has rocketed as the Yen tanked. Fair enough.
But the US Dollar is rocketing as the markets are rocketing. Something has to give - and fairly soon.
Imminently..
There is a shitstorm of inflation coming. Everyday I get a few offers to borrow cash. This is just like 2006 2007.
I just went to the market. I usually pick a pack of hamburger that has 3 sections to it and completely fills the package.
It now barely covers 1/2 of the package. Have no fear , the marxist/progressives will defeat themselves .
Thank god the dollar is so strong......
Not for long. Chair Satan is enjoying the percieved savings, "based on commodity costs from importers".
The Fed. is deferring short term inflation in real terms (gas,food,clothing) with a perceived stronger dollar.
Have you heard anything about seasonal adjustments over the last "Fortnight" Fonz?
I don't think the dollar is strong relative to real goods Yen. I think it's actually weakening against anything real, except PM's...which I can only surmise is for short term optical effect.
I am not on anyones early distribution list, so I have not heard anything much about anything lately. I am out here flailing on my own.
The dollar is strong against the last Salmon in the run.... Keep stacking Fonz ;-)
There has got to be a level coming up soon in gold and silver where these crooks are going to get exposed. Too many people are at least decently 'awake' about how this whole thing is rigged and the debt is huge, etc, not to mention the already eager stackers who are strong hands not in it for quick speculative plays, for the price of gold and silver to just absolutely tank without having the completion of the paper/phyz PM divergence. Not saying these people have say a 'ZH' level of awareness, but many are staying away from the markets despite this run-up, and I think the innate turn to gold as money is getting stronger and stronger. Obviously in the East this is well-documented as they have been wiped out by inflation so much, but also for a good deal of individuals in the West who want to preserve wealth. I have talked to just regular business people who say they are waiting for a dip in gold.
And silver is where it seems the action would be even more crazy (because it is more affordable and always the leveraged play on gold), because are you kidding me, silver at $10, even 15 bucks?!!!!!With global debasement of fiat and huge debts and provocations/intervention/warmongering in so many theatres? There are way too many strong hands who would embrace the chance to load up at such a sale price. I don't think they will be able to do what they did in '08 or thereabouts with the takedown to $8 or whatever it was. Way too many people at least in some fashion are 'aware' that all is not well. True they may not recognize how much a house of cards this truly is/how this whole phony paradigm will collapse making the last crisis look like a picnic, but more people than you think 'get' that it is prudent to prepare, whether it's PMs, food, guns, etc.
Not to mention that the mining companies are going to be in big trouble if prices go even a bit further down, as already they are in big trouble. Crude seems headed to 100+ even with euro tanking.
Nap Time
Methinks I'll be buying some silver this morning :)
Might as well be the broken clock...
There is never a better time then now to buy moar pm's.
I'm going to wait a bit. I thought the bad economic data would get gold another run to 1445 but then that bogus 'confidence' # sort of quelled that notion for now. I think the sudden waterfalls they create put tons of stress on the physical markets. People get excited to buy on the dip, physical that is. I have pretty strong conviction that we are near a floor here, relatively, meaning one more shakeout beneath even the last raid's lows maybe into the 12 or 1100's is still feasible. Probably would occur as the USDJPY and DXY maxxes out.
There are way too many explosive triggers out there for silver and gold to be going down. I don't care if the euro goes down, either. They play these paper games and compare fiat currencies against each other, but it's important to remember to price them in real goods, not against other toilet paper.
Scaling into a long gold/silver trade here seems pretty compelling to me. It's a definite risk to think gold will even get down to 1250 or so I would say. And sure if it got down to 1k it still would be superficially expensive to an average person, but silver would correspond to such a move (they move together 99% of time) by going well below $20, and that would be very affordable for people to go buy some ounces. Intra-PM sector, silver is the one to watch in my opinion. It's well documented how it is consumed and all the technological uses and antimicrobial, too. And investable silver supply or whatever I've read many a time is less than gold. That is going to lead to a huge squeeze.
The chart of gold and silver may to some look technically brutal, but this is where reality diverges from the paper markets. On-the-ground is going to overtake what some NYMEX trader views as a 'bearish rising wedge' or whatever technical signal have you.
Gold and silver are currently testing the lows that occurred as a result of the takedown in mid april. This may be a long-term low being put in, but it's wiser to be a little patient right now and wait and see if you're a trader. In any case, next week is going to be very interesting for metal, particularly if they start going up with increasing volume :)
I just would be astonished if they took say silver down into the low teens even. It is such a relatively small market (a la Hunts trying to corner it) only this time leverage wouldn't even be needed to artificially corner it, because the price would be so cheap. Are you kidding me?! Silver that low with all this printing and geopolitical tensions? And sure, prices at coin shops would be high with even higher premiums, but the COMEX would be the real story, because one can indeed buy exactly at spot 'price' on the COMEX, if one is willing/able to pay for/take delivery of 100 ozt of Au or 5k ozt. of Ag. People would combine orders with friends as it might still be too expensive for one individual to buy a whole contract, and anyway many still can, and would indeed do that.
That seems like the surefire way the COMEX would be toast. We all know the divergence in paper/phyz on the ground at coin shops/Apmex, etc., but even now people still can get the phyzz (well, based on the inventories depletion, who knows?) at spot if they can afford the whole contract size (and a mini-contract in physical silver I believe is in the works, too, if I read right, so more affordable there).
In short, the floor is near here. And throw in how all these mainstream folks and many funds are throwing in the towel and so you can add the short squeeze factor into it. The miners, too, are treading water as it is.
Buy more PMs? .... Yeah, what a joke. Neither the fundementals or technicals matter anywhere in "The Market". Bubble heads like Kudlow say the gold correction/crash is a "sign" that "the markets" are "safe" for "investors" and there will be no new crisis... Hey Larry here's your sign, Fuck off.
We've been spendin' most our lives livin' in a gambler's paradise!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4qh_9vH1Ww
Bubble Bernanke, Evans, Dudley and Yellen have the market buying push to max.
Due for a Hefty correction, looks like.
Tesla motors put options
Fool. Nap Time
Ah, the joys of a planned market/economy. Never did I think I'd witness this in my lifetime.
I'm buying the Monday close and selling the Tuesday close.
Yawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwn
So easy
The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players.
The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
The markets will fall only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls
OR
When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35345.html
What a bizarro world we live in. I suspect the rule of trading will be changed into "Buy high sell Low".
I believe that margin debt is somewhere up around $350 billion. Can someone tell me how many billions of dollars of shares this covers? Is marging debt 10%, 20% or what of the price of the shares?
I felt there might have been a market top earlierthis year because I got a knock on the door "a cold call" from an investment adviser - wanted me to put money in the market - mananged by his company. I told him I didn't want to put money in the market when it was at a record high - and that his knocking on my door was probably an indication of a market top. A couple months later and we are still setting records highs. I know (and you know) the market is divorced from traditional metrics, but there are a whole lot of "gamblers" making a whole lot of money over the 4 years. How much longer?
Don't know, I have been heavily invested for a while, I should probably set some stops. With my luck, there would be a flash crash and the stops would execute at $.50, and simultaneously, the exchanges would decide to not reverse any more trades! LOL!
You raise a good point for retail investors. With algos performing well over 70% of the trades across the world, there are news ways for the traditional retail investor to get fleeced. Algos can blow out your positions with multiple sigma moves in milliseconds and/or remove all liquidity/volume in an instant. Even if the move was slow enough for you to initiate some trades, there might be no one on the other side. Also, don't look for the SEC or the exchanges to help you out in the case of a major loss. They are either helpless, toothless, clueless, or don't care about machine "manipulation" of the market.
Vroooom
The weather is fabulous and all the other kids are outside playing. We sit inside peering out the window lamenting that some day it will eventually rain.
Perfect metaphor
We see the storm clouds on the horizon, we feel the wind blowing towards us, but we don't understand why the clouds aren't coming any closer.
If the normal tools don't work, then find new tools that do work. Is there another way to look at the markets? You complain that the markets are rigged, fundamentals don't work, technicals don't work, "they'll keep going up until they don't" ( may be true but not at all helpful ) ...
There has to be another way of looking at the markets. When there's not enough retail suckers and the elites have to turn on each other? I don't know, but if your normal tools don't work then stop using them. Check in now and again to see how they are going, but there has to be another way to look at things.
Slightly OT, Shadow Gov Stats predicts US hyperinflation by the end of 2014, but I still don't know how he reached that conclusion (either I didn't read his explanation, or I didn't understand what I read, or he didn't say). Does anyone out there know how he reached that conclusion?
The disconnect between the stock market and the us economy continues to grow, as the key stock indices run way ahead of reality.
The fundamental reasons behind the rise in today’s key stock indices are missing. For a real rally to happen, there has to be rising demand in the U.S. economy, consumers must be confident to spend, and businesses should see their sales rising. None of this is taking place.
Industrial production in the U.S. economy decreased 0.5% in April—marking the second decline since the beginning of the year. (Source: Federal Reserve, May 15, 2013.)
Similarly, manufacturing in the U.S. economy is also portraying a bleak picture of demand. Manufacturing output in the U.S. economy declined 0.4% in April after continuing its slump from March, when it decreased by 0.3%.
Read More at http://www.profitconfidential.com/stock-market-advice/warning-79-of-sp-500-companies-issue-negative-2q-guidance/
nice trading environment. Would like to catch the coming "hangover" with cfd's;
http://www.cfd-trading-info.com
It is not so much that the markets are a casino that bothers me. It is that the markets are a crooked casino in which price is managed in a non-free market way and designed to confiscate money from people who are not connected to the manipulators.
If you knew which way you were going to move speicific prices on any given day and you shared that information with your connected friends, but you did not let others know would it be easy for you to take money away from others and give it to yourself and your cronies ... you betcha.
... and that is why it is best not to participate in the markets if you are not connected to those with the power to manipulate price. You will be always guessing when they KNOW.
It is not as if the SEC is designed to fix the fraud and theft in the market. The SEC in its current incarnation is designed to protect the fraud because it is intimately connected to the managers of price.
If you do not believe this then answer the following question for me: What FREE market do you know of that moves in the opposite direction of free market supply and demand forces? In a free market if sentiment is positive price moves up and negative then price moves down. However, in the crooked stock market it is generally the opposite and the blatant lie that they give is that the market is the public is always wrong ... which they are because those who manage price make sure they are by manipulating price.
Ding. Ding. Ding. Winner. Thank you Mario.
I believe I heard a giggle from the technical traders. Fundamentals are useless @ present. Pull up charting software, verify the uptrend is in place, and go back to living life. They don't care about the logic of why. Their focus is soley on taking advantage of the direction. As for me, the more I study market fundamentals, the less money I make.
"A giant asteroid named 1998 QE2 is about to pass very close to earth on May 31. Does this portend something? Like something is going to crash to earth?"
Recently there was another asteroid that passed close by. Near about the same time another chunk of space rock blew up in the sky over Russia. Maybe QE2 has a close freind tagging along as well.
Does 1 666 on the S&P portend the market crashing to earth? Stay tuned next week.
The bottom 60%: 2.5% of the stock market pie. It makes one just feel the wealth effect on the masses.
This is textbook bubble behavior!
May 1929 really nice. November 1929 was not so nice, but 1929 was a Loooong year until it wasn't.