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It’s Official: Gold Is Now The Most Hated Asset Class
Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog,
Full Court Press
Not a day passes without the financial media denouncing gold as an investment option and hailing the bureaucrats heading the world's monopolist monetary central planning agencies as superheroes. It began prior to gold's recent breakdown, with widely cited bearish reports on gold published by Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs, among others. Never mind that most of their arguments were easily unmasked as spurious. It should be no wonder though: gold's rise was the most conspicuous evidence of faith in central banking being slowly but surely undermined. The banking cartel relies on the fiat money system remaining intact; the legal privilege of fractional reserve banking provides it with what is an essentially fraudulent profit center unparalleled by any other in the world (fraudulent in terms of traditional legal principles, but not in terms of the current law of course). Not surprisingly, ever since the completely unrestrained fiat money system became operational in the early 1970s, the financial sector's share of corporate profits has inexorably risen and finally eclipsed all other sectors of the economy.
The share of financial profits of total corporate profits – a direct result of the fractional reserve banking privilege and the central bank monopoly on money (via Ed Yardeni) – click to enlarge.
In other words, the banks have to protect a major franchise. It is a good bet that if gold had continued to rise in the face of money printing being accelerated all over the world, the inevitable loss of faith in central banks would have happened sooner rather than later. That it will eventually happen is unavoidable – the modern monetary system was fated to self-destruct the moment it was conceived. This is so because central planning and price controls cannot work in the long run, even though central banks are socialistic institutions adrift in a capitalist sea, so to speak. They can to some extent observe prices in the market, but the problem is that the market price most relevant to them – namely the ratio of future against present goods as expressed in interest rates on the credit markets – is not independent of their actions. There is therefore nothing that can tell them whether their administered interest rates are too high or too low. It is a system that is condemned to fail at some point (unfortunately with grave consequences for the economy at large).
The fact that a great many people ostensibly believe in its viability is not proof that it is viable; most of those who are most vocal about retaining the central bank money monopoly are directly profiting from its existence after all. That the commercial banks only want to protect a source of large profits and an invaluable backstop in case their speculations go wrong is clear, but the same is true of most academics in the economics profession. The great bulk of them derives its income from the State, and the central bank is at the forefront of supporting the livelihood of its apologists.
Among commercial banks, Credit Suisse has been a leader in the recent rhetorical onslaught against gold, and has just published a follow-up, duly repeated by Bloomberg under the non-too-subtle title: 'Gold Seen Crushed'.
“Gold, down 17 percent since January, is poised to lose 20 percent in a year as inflation fails to accelerate and with the worst risks to the global economy waning, Credit Suisse Group AG said.
Gold will trade at $1,100 an ounce in a year and below $1,000 in five years, according to Ric Deverell, head of commodities research at the bank. Lower prices are unlikely to lure more central-bank buying, said Deverell, who worked at the Reserve Bank of Australia for 10 years before joining Credit Suisse in 2010.
“Gold is going to get crushed,” Deverell told reporters in London today. “The need to buy gold for wealth preservation fell down and the probability of inflation on a one- to three-year horizon is significantly diminished.”
Investors are losing faith in the world’s traditional store of value even as central banks continue to print money on an unprecedented scale. Bullion slumped into the bear market last month after a 12-year bull market that saw prices rise as much as sevenfold. Gold is a “wounded bull,” Credit Suisse said in a Jan. 3 report.
(emphasis added)
Color us unsurprised that the main author of the report is an ex-central banker. As regards inflation, below is a chart we have recently shown, US money TMS-2. The good people at Credit Suisse neglect to mention in their report that official 'CPI inflation' has rarely risen beyond the central bank's 'target' of 2% during the entire gold bull market to date. It was completely irrelevant to the gold market thus far, so why should the outlook for the government's 'inflation' data suddenly become relevant now? Monetary inflation has been higher over the past five, 10 and 15 years than at any time since the end of WW2 in a comparable period – and it continues to accelerate.
It is therefore erroneous to claim that 'the probability of inflation on a one to three year horizon is diminished' – the exact opposite is the case. As noted above, Credit Suisse's argumentation has been spurious in its first bearish gold report already and it continues to be so. It seems more likely that a concerted public relations campaign against gold is underway, while parallel to that, a pro-central banking campaign is in full swing. We're not really big fans of conspiracy theories, but in this case, everything points to this being the case; it is just as transparent as the pro-war campaign prior to the Iraq war was.
Monetary inflation in the US since the year 2000. Money TMS-2 has more than tripled – click to enlarge.
Success! Gold Now Seen as 'Worst Performing Asset' by Investors
The gold market is of course complying so far, as the clients of the banks issuing bearish reports are bailing from their gold positions. Skeptical voices like Elliott Capital Management's Paul Singer have been drowned out by the incessant barrage of propaganda. Gold continues to decline in the near term and its chart has begun to look rather ominous.
Gold over the past week (most active futures contract) – down every day of the week – click to enlarge.
As Credit Suisse incidentally also reported, its campaign has been crowned with success: not only has the gold price declined sharply, gold has now become the 'most hated asset class' with the 'worst outlook among commodities' according to a recent CS survey among institutional investors:
“Gold has the worst 12-month outlook among commodities and will trade below $1,400 an ounce in a year, according to an investor poll by Credit Suisse Group AG.
Sixty percent of respondents named bullion as having the worst outlook, 18 percent picked copper and 16 percent selected corn, the bank said in an e-mailed report today. Fifty-one percent predicted gold will fall under $1,400 in 12 months, it said. The bank polled 185 investors including hedge funds, pension funds and family offices on May 15 in London.
“Bearishness for gold was a very clear consensus,” said Kamal Naqvi, the head of commodities sales for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Credit Suisse. “It’s not about just not buying gold, it’s about shorting it,” or wagering on a drop.
Gold slumped into a bear market last month as investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value. Bullion is down 17 percent this year, compared with the 2.9 percent drop for the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of raw materials.
Fifty-three percent of investors expect commodity prices to stay near current levels, Credit Suisse said. Most were underweight raw materials or had zero exposure, while they expected to be overweight or neutral in 12 months, the bank said. Investors named relative value trades, fundamentally based directional trades and volatility as the best ways to extract value from commodities.”
(emphasis added)
The general bearishness on commodities jibes with what we have seen in the recent Merrill Lynch fund manager survey. The bearishness on gold is in keeping with what we have seen in the Barron's 'Big Money' survey and other polls. Apparently though the people who write the gold reports at Credit Suisse are oblivious to the contrarian implications of their own survey.
As we have recently pointed out, just before Japan's stock market embarked on a 75% rally in the space of a few months, fund managers absolutely hated Japan (they love it now!). As we wrote in our October 30 review of the Barron's Big Money poll:
“However, what we really love is that they hate Japanese stocks even more! As it were, we are busy writing an article on Japan that will be entitled 'Reconsidering Japan' and should be published sometime this week. There are quite a few reasons to believe that Japanese stocks will finally do the unexpected and come back to life.”
At the time, a full 76% of the 'big money' fund managers surveyed declared themselves bearish on Japan. Currently, 69% of the managers surveyed in the most recent Barron's poll are bearish on gold. One must of course admit that from a technical perspective gold currently looks weak. That is undeniably the case and there could therefore be more near to medium term downside. However, the most important fundamental data as well as the sentiment backdrop clearly remain bullish. In fact, the skepticism of investors regarding commodities in general and gold in particular in the face of the biggest money printing orgy of the modern age is what we would call an 'extreme long term bullish dichotomy'. It seems highly likely to us that a year from now or maybe even earlier, the conversation will have profoundly changed.
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The last time I heard this gold was selling for $800.
I'm buying with both hands this time. Cause pimpin ain't easy.
If gold is now the most hated asset class, then why did some of the top performing Hedge Fund Managers recently purchase $183 million in call options in the gold miners?
http://srsroccoreport.com/gold-bug-hedge-funds-collectively-report-over-183mm-in-new-call-option-positions-on-miners/gold-bug-hedge-funds-collectively-report-over-183mm-in-new-call-option-positions-on-miners/
I've said this before and I'll say it again. Ask yourself this, if we live in a world where any central bank can print enough new money to buy all the worlds' gold, why isn't it constantly being shipped from one country to another at ever increasing prices? Why are China and Russia constrained to adding to their reserves FROM MINIMG SUPPLIES, and why will it take 7 years to repatriate one 10th of Germany's gold to the Bundesbank?
The answer is that gold is still, and has been for 50 years now the only 'commodity' that isn't for sale FOR ANY AMOUNT OF PAPER MONEY in the central banking system.
Why is that?
The answer is IMO because TPTB after WWII required collateral to make loans to rebuild a devastated Germany and Europe post war when there was no effective collateral other than gold, and that wass in the US and UK. They needed to create new collateral to fund the rebuild, fast, and that collateral was debt. It was a requirement. They've done this before, they know how this ends, they knew how this would end back then. It ends in both inflation and default, and when it does the only countries with gold will still be the post WWII powers i.e England and the US. Every other country including Asia knows that when the default finally comes the asset side of their now somewhat T Bill bloated balance sheets will implode, counterparty risk will be 100% and they will have no gold for their currency.
Try as they might there is no way the Fed or the BoE will allow any central bank to take gold paid for in post war fiat hence China and Russia scrabbling for mining supply and Germany's problem in repatriating its gold. There remains not one central bank not capable of placing a 400 tonne long to counter the April 12th short if they needed gold to be stable for their reserves, yet they didn't and still don't. This is because they don't have any real gold despite what is supposedly stored by the Fed and BoE. The Central Bank Agreements on Gold were a paper exercise, which means that Asian and European economies continued existence is still dependent on the USD, and they know it. This ends in default. That's when the Fed and BoE take back their gold from JPM and HSBC et al and every body else gets to eat the $700 Trillion credit loss that no one can see coming. We already know how this ends. China and Russia have until then to accumulate as much phys as they can before it's too late, because central banks aren't selling it at any price in paper. If they don't mine it they have no choice but to keep teh party going.
If you want to go invest in the stock market go knock yourself out, I'm sure when push comes to shove you will find plenty of very tall fiat paid for buildings to jump off, and remember freefalls's cool till it's not, as many stock markets are about to find out...
I think Jim Rogers doesn't hate gold. The asset still has a lot of big supporters.
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/04/jim-rogers-gold-going-higher-over-...
Gotta seperate those (even on ZH) that are looking for the quick up-tick or otherwise have mistaken gold as a short-term investment. You are still not far enough down the rabbit hole. Gold is here to stay (so say 4 billion people). They know it. That is why it is not touted (qui bono?). If you are fleeing gold, then you don't really believe that it is being manipulated or understand the difference between fiat and intrinsic value; debt and money. "Price" is almost a lost cause. Think of gold as your retirement fund and have the same philosphy about it. Put it away with principles, and don't pay attention to the clownish noise-of-the-day. If you can get a-hold of phys, this is the greatest saving opportunity in years (that is why it is 'hated').
if running a gold mining operation "just isn't your cup of tea" then welcome to your just deserts. Mining gold is HUGELY expensive. to do it you need to borrow hundreds of millions if not billions in capital. the banker will not lend unless product is on the table. can't make money with gold at 1900 an ounce? turn it over to the man. "now find a way to make it at 1300 an ounce asshole." again "the story doesn't get any easier for the gold makers from here." same goes for the totality of the commodity complex in general right now. these prices are deflating across the board increasing profit margins and "the play" on the equity component of "price" (as in "stock price.") as confidence is restored the "p" in the "p/e ratio" is expanding with the albeit turtle slow recovery. i'm looking for entry points here people...giving me something i can work with Petey et al. throw me a bone here. "already had the coke and hookers" as they say.
I wonder what the outlook will be when the COMEX delivers that last ounce? Paper should essentially go to zero on that day, and those with the phyz, well, you know the rest.. Keep stackin' friends :-)
according to swiss law, it is illegal to "hate" gold or to incite others to do so
double-plus unloved asset maybe
Boris is hate on Tungsten.
one asset will have the last laugh.
The average person, the so called astute investor, and MSM can hate it all they like. They are a fickle bunch and will back-flip when the breeze changes direction.
What matters is the change in the season, not todays wind direction. What's the real money doing?
Bullion Banks: The game ahead
Not since Rothschild scooped in and bought all the War Bonds of England and War Debt of France at Pence on the Pound, just hours after the Napoleon’s defeat, have I heard of such a set-up as today’s Gold Space.
The Bullion Bank’s [Hasty] Ambush is set, the Gold Market is merely awaiting the ‘Official Runner’ to bring the real news of the War on Gold. They will skim the physical till the runner arrives. The runner's news will lift the veil cloaking the reality of Gold in the market, and trigger mass panic in many sectors of the financial markets.
Rothschild may well have been very impressed with this financial manoeuvre.
http://twoshortplanksunplugged.blogspot.com.au/
“Physical Gold:
The argument that modern wealth is so large that it is immobile and therefore will not move en masse to physical gold.
To this point I first pose a question. Where has all the physical gold gone? Central banks have gold on their books but a major percentage, maybe a shocking percentage, is leased out with counter party risk. Simply stated, if the lease is not renewed the central banks must drop the gold from their assets therefore the leases are renewed constantly knowing full well the gold is gone. The theft of gold is the second largest crime in world history, second in size to the fraudulent legacy of OTC derivatives that caused the entire mess.
The paper gold market is in its death throws right now due to the downside manipulation and the knuckle draggers do not even appreciate that. With the automatic and forthcoming elimination of paper gold as the price setting mechanism, physical gold will seek much higher prices than anyone can conceive of.
I mentioned that a price of $50,000 an ounce was possible when physical gold is emancipated from paper gold. To that a popular previous gold writer turned Trojan Horse simply dismissed it as Jim being extreme rather than argue the subject.”
http://www.jsmineset.com/
But where has the gold 'gone'?
Seems to me that it's still sitting in the same place it always was but now with a 'billion' paper claims to it, none of which will be honored when the derivatives collapse finally arrives.
It will all go back to where it should be will it not, back to the Fed and BoE, and goodbye JPM and HSBC et al?
And then we can start again, with the West lending 'collateral' to the rest of a world in which everyone else including Joe sixpack realises that the bond market blow up just cost them their pension, stock portfolio and house valuation. Real poverty will be upon us all and the bankers will ride to the rescue once again, but this time with an all new set of banks, all collateralised with real gold priced at much, much higher prices...
And at that point every gold bullion investor will discover that if you haven't got a very good tax plan you're fucked, but at least they saw it coming...
In all my trading days I never saw one ounce of gold appear on my monitor when I was watching all those red candles. Paper gold is dead. It will likely never rear it's ugly head again. LONG LIVE YELLOW GOLD, IN YOUR HAND!
I hope so but I doubt it.
Corzine is not dead, he just didn't work at JPM...
and they haven't been found to have none yet.
Ha ha … F’m all
I know a guy with a 25 year old Rolex President just keeps getting worth more every month.
(worth more now that he paid for it in 1988)
Put that in your economic pipe and smoke it,
Gold....valued by oppressed people for over 6000 years....and counting.
Grab some and wait for the big reset button in the fiat sky.
Bah, just grab some! ;-)
As gold costs over $1200/oz to exctract, it is pefectly safe to keep adding as it goes down. This is a concerted effort to push stocks into the feel good summer season, but the sheeple are not buying it.
Caution, the bernanke money that went into the stocks via prime dealer banks are designed to lure the retail investors and at the apex the dealers will pull profits first and the retail sheeple will be holding the bag.
They did it with housing, they did with the stock market and they will do it again. If you want action go to Vegas. Better chances and free buffet
Can anyone verify or share info on the HKMEX shut down tomorrow?
In closing out the open positions, the Exchange has developed a plan in consultation with the SFC to ensure the process is orderly and that investors are well informed of the matter.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1369077753.php
Not that I disagree, but the smug and condescending "sheeple" gets you a -1. You can do better than that.
Starting with Moses, the elite have hated gold in all bovine forms forms for a long time.
Actually 2500 years, no? precious metal coin came into broader acceptance during the Axial Age, independently in Asia Minor, Mediterranean, & China, right? But the point is broad use of precious metal coinage coincided with the collapse of empires.
If you believe the CME inventory reports, it's definitely NOT sitting in the same place it always was.
Someone(s) with money and the ability to actually get delivery have been doing just that.
If ever there was a sign that gold is a good place to be, it's this.
No, what I mean is that it's still sitting in the same banks in the same places albeit in different ledgers, and when push comes to shove, the Fed and BoE will be the first to have their claims settled before any other claims are entertained, and as we know, when the derivatives market fails the first bank to fold will be entitled only to cash settlement in bankruptcy and the rest of the daisy chain will very soon be history.
The Fed and BoE must be keeping a very tight grip on gold, otherwise we would see 400, 500, 800 and multi-thousand tonne 'longs' being placed daily by any central bank that wanted to accumulate real gold.
Why wait 7 years for 10% of your gold when you can take delivery through the Comex in june? supposedly...
C'mon Har001, don't you get it?
try to think for a second as a head of the Asian bank (or any other bank) who want to increase the physical size of its assets.
Would you like to see the physical price lower or taking to the sky? of course you prefer to have it lower as long as your orders are being delivered in physical gold. And for the time being they are. Usually the Central Banks transactions are done behind the curtains abut this is just a SALE time of the century and they are using many (any) ways they can to get physical into own hands.
Same thing with oil producers - would you think they are taking and keeping the dollars for oil - some of it yes but some of it comes as gold in some special price (suggest reading 'Think like Giants' fy FOFOA)
Try to imagine the people who are driving the Central Banks are usually the really bright guys.
But that's my point, Germany amassed what 3,800 tonnes of gold, on paper anyway and Gordon Brown sold 200 tonnes of UK gold but where did it go? When did the Germans or anyone else ever take delivery?
They didn't, that is other than Venezuela, and Chavez is dead now for whatever reason. Venezuela is already running out of basic necessities despite being oil rich. I believe they were allowed to take delivery only because Chavez was belligerent and couldn't be bought off, and because it was a relatively small amount of gold needed to keep the great sham going. It too was a requirement.
So where is the rest of the gold? It's still within the grasp of the Fed and BoE. This is the great scam. Foreign central banks know they can buy it but can't ever take delivery of it and the Fed and BoE know they can sell it without ever losing control or ownership of it. When it all fails their claims will be settled first and everyone else will be stunned that they have only paper and no gold. It's why all central banks are still playing the game and no one complains at the volatility in the price of the only real asset they can 'own' but can't have. They have no gold. Only the Fed and BoE have any.
So where are the multi tonne longs on the Comex waiting for delivery to Asian central banks?
Even HSBC just bought silver from KGHM in Poland for delivery 'over years'. Why bother when you can buy it from the market if it's cheap? It seems that everybody is desperate to accumulate physical from anywhere BUT the market it seems because they are shit scared of pushing the price up when they do.
I love your analysis, Harq. I'm glad I scrolled down. I'm new here. Fire Angel
How did I get down here?
Does anyone know the way out of this place?
Take the shloshon cut-off
You are right about the theft. Today in the UK, if pulled over by a cop and found to have bought something, say a car, whatever that was previously stolen, well ... it's gone they take it.
It's probably not totally wrong that when the sh*t its the fan and they blame someone, whoever, does not matter for theft, then all those who bought will be expected to hand it back, as even in our current laws, they can take anything off you that was previously stolen and its your fault for not knowing. It helps them even more to have a complete list of purchases, probably passport pictures and other paper material of nearly all purchases simply because they require it at time of purchase for monitoring money laundering and tax evasion.
I can easily see that happening with your gold purchases, at least here in the UK anyhow...
Make sure you report your boating accidents and the break-ins with the police.
and when caught selling the stuff later, stuff claimed to have been stolen from you, what you think they are gonna say? Or do for that matter... It's stacked against you, whatever happens.
naïveté
What's the statute of limitations on theft in the UK? And when are the going to convict bankers of stealing gold, as that would be a prerequisite for going after anyone currently in possession of such "stolen" gold?
(may need to schedule my next boating trip sometime in the future, but there is a process involved)
Steal it?
That's an understatement. Anything you own legally is fair game.
They are gonna bust down your door, rape your wife, your kids, your dog, and then they are gonna ass-rape you, put a gun to your head and pull the trigger after they make you watch them kill your family and burn your fucking house down with everything innit they don't want to steal.
"They" are gonna burn this country to the ground. Then They are gonna salt the earth. After that, things will get really bad.
Get ready. Use a 12 gauge, aim for the legs. Keep your pistol on you 24/7/365, as a means to get to your shotgun. When that is empty, grab your Assault Fucking Weapon and shoot every goddam evil satanic minion you can put in your sights. Throw Molotovs on their fucking DHS fucking tanks they bought to kill you and your family with and slaughter the bastards after the heat and gasses overwhelm the filtration systems. Cut off their heads and put 'em where the next crew coming thru can see 'em. If you have time, cut up the bodies and pile the parts up in separate stacks. Chain saws are good for this. Wear an apron.
"They" Are Coming. Boston was your warning. Shelter in place my ass. Make Them Fear You.
Find some friends. Buddy up. Don't wait for them, shoot their fucking ass, find out where they live and kill their fucking families until they are so scared of a righteous man the badge, the uniform or military rank and the fiat they get paid isn't worth it.
Go Asymmetrical.
BUT. You must wait until they strike. You cannot use moral terror until they strike first. If you go off first, you lose. Be Patient. Right now they are trying to rile us up. It will get worse. Hold your fire, obey the "law," no matter how corrupt it is until they pull off the gloves and TSHTF.
Pray on your knees "They" do not force this on US.
Peace.
Seems Asia doesn't hate Gold and Silver. The Hong Kong commodities exchange is seizing all trading of gold and silver now. Settling all trades in cash. Looks like an official default.
http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2013/05/hong-kong-mercantile-exchange.html
Interesting Sunday night action (US time) - The Exchange will disseminate settlement prices to its members the morning of next Monday, 20 May 2013.
>>one asset will have the last laugh. <<
Which is why the banksters plan to bust your *ss in their deflationary societal asset stripping operation so they can force everyone to sell it to them for cheap.
This crime isn't even that complicated...
1. Leverage up and blow the world's largest credit bubble.
2. When the bubble eventually pops, steal trillions in cash and offload the debt onto society.
3. Once the looting is completed (almost there!), they will usher in the deflationary collapse in order to turn their debt paper into your property and to maximize the purchasing power fo their ill gotten gains.
4. Once they buy everything up and basically own the world and almost everyone else is in the street starving or begging to work for table scrapes, they super inflate to balance their TBTF&Jail books and claim "capitalism failed" and only the people with the money can rule now... for the children. If you want to eat, you have to give up those rights.
Fair is fair.
Anyone who thinks sociopaths who hold trillions in cash and trillions in debt holdings are going to hyperinflate their wealth away HAVE NO IDEA ABOUT HOW THE REAL WORLD WORKS.
NONE.
Yep.
http://breakfornews.com/bfn7/plutonomy.png
^ not fake
BUT, in order for that to work, basically every government in western world will have to legitimately default... i have a hard time seeing that happening.
IB, We are in for quite a ride and I don't think anyone can predict details.
I see it working out in a way that "America" will owe debt to the international banking cartel (IBC) and their front corporations that can't be paid.
The IBC will demand payment, one way or another - about 35% of America's land is Federally owned and might be transferred to the IBC's private control.
Ditto for any othe public entity like roads (tolls will be put on them), water, power - you get the idea.
In Bolivia they privatized raiin water - and when the jack boots come out, they might try that con again.
When the defaults have to start, though, the IBC will make sure that entities outside the IBC will have to eat the defaults.
This might lead to war, but the IBC will embrace that as they run the military and police state complexes, too.
What you seem to fail to realize is that default is 100% certain no matter what route they choose. Period.
Therefore, the system controllers will orchestrate a default that suits their best interests - and that's simply Econ 101 at play.
We need to consider the consequences of hoarding/saving.
Paper currencies benefit from two actions: debasement and interest. Interest requires ever greater amounts of currency to pay it. Debasement acts as a screen to hide the loss of value from excessive printing.
Hoarding functions as a means of absorbing excess liquidity. Whereas gold or silver are actual collateral, most of our hoarding results in items of lttle to no real value. Furniture, gardens, art*, cds, dvds, clothes, cars*, etc. All items with steep declining values. Most westerners have way more than they need (so much, they created the garage sale).
This rampant consumerism is necessary to justify the creation of money debt. While savings are important, the purchase of goods that serve little purpose,other than as a measure of leisure, are contributors to the need for more debt creation. Especially, if the consumption is through debt, rather than savings.
If more people focused on the purchase of productive resources, even if using debt, the amount of "money" necessary in our economy would plummet, exposing the considerable malinvestment that masquerades as investment. This would further dimlnish the power of the financial segment and their influence over government, the media and ourselves.
A paper collapse will result in a paper settlement. A consumption collapse will result in a revolution. Which battle do you want to fight? Which result has the greatest measure of benefit for our childen and their future?
* yes, I recognize the value of collectibles.
"In other words, the banks have to protect a major franchise."
Debt based money is the franchise (all source money comes into the system as an asset to the bank and a liability to everyone else).
There's definately a difference between the price of gold and its value. Watch the 'price' too often and be prepared to clean your shorts regularly. The price may well fall dramatically more before its value is understood and expressed as price. Sit tight, be right.
No, debt based money is no more the franchise than the Trojan Horse was the franchise.
Both are methods to achieve a much bigger franchise.
The franchise is dictatorial world control.
The money is only the covert means of achieving that franchise.
And no, I'm not speculating.
I'm just repeating what they say they want.
And, well, you know... observed what every other d*mned tyrant on the planet has always wanted throughout the totality of recorded human history.
True enough, but the use of the word 'franchise' as quoted refers to money creation and control. One hell of a powerful 'Trojan Horse'.
New KWN Interview, Sunday, May 19, 2013
Andrew Maguire
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/19_Andrew_Maguire_files/Andrew%20Maguire%205%3A19%3A2013.mp3
====
Another powerful interview, William Kaye, Senior Managing Director of the Pacific Alliance Group of Companies. One of the best interviews ever on KWN.
Part I: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/14_William_Kaye_files/William%20Kaye%205%3A14%3A2013.mp3
Part II: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/15_William_Kaye__Part_II_files/William%20Kaye%205%3A15%3A2013.mp3
William Kaye interview is BRILLIANT discussion of identifying bear markets.
We completely agree on the bad *ss nature of this Trojan Horse.
The distinction that I don't want to get lost is that the corporate front banks are there to protect the interests of their OWNERS, not the money system itself.
When protecting the money system is in the OWNERS best interest, they will protect it.
But if the interests ever diverge, the banks will get burned faster than toilet paper on a camp fire.
Some people think the money system is the agenda. It isn't. It is a tool to achieve a much greater agenda.
Gee, I haven't heard the Univeristy of Texas Retirement Fund selling their $4 Billion in gold bars...or Michigan State U Retirement Fund...or the ultra conservative Northwestern Mutual Ins Co. and on and on selling their yellow metal. And why are CBs still grabbing as much as they can? Why does anyone care about Eye-Ran's gold if it's not important?
Why?
I asked my own broker why the financial industry hates gold and he said they don't make commissions when investors buy and sell physical from places like APMEX, etc. He seems to be pretty honest about it.
http://silverdoctors.com/hkmex-to-cease-trading-will-close-out-cash-sett...
Get Ready....
H001
very interesting and insightful. There still is some physical because if there weren't there could not be a paper market. You are correct in that physical in size is simply not to be had.
Rickards contends that a mere 10 ton request is a problem.
We watch the funds (GLD, COMEX) loose physical by the ton... accelerating since January.
Soon the request for physical will be met with a 'gone fishing' sign and that will be that. The paper gold market of the past 30 years and all other gold derivatives will be history. A 'physical only' market must follow as the world does not function without gold. The price at which it is offered should be of interest.
There is a rumor about which I am not at liberty to discuss but I suppose I can say this: a very famous banker type (you would guess his name in the first 5 guesses) told a very famous TV person (I believe you'd know him too) when asked what to do said: 'buy physical gold and don't worry about the price'...this was in 2013....the end approaches.
They supply only enough to keep the phys market functioning but need to stop it's growth now and then. Their intent is to boost prices on the up from artificial lows and then slam dunk from the new low highs to make it volatile. I know a lot of people who were contemplating a gold investment that are now looking for something more 'stable'. Score Bernanke 1 Reality 0. For now...
If it's so volatile, why are the central banks still hoarding it and not selling it? The answer is that it's not, and I think most ZH'ers know it, even if they don't realise it.
The writing's on the wall already, and it has been since the birth of us all...
Jim Sinclair has warned about some volatility when gold will get over 3500 mark - volatility of close to 50% price range.
The reason is simple: before the real price of gold will be understood it is critical that all or almost all gold should be in the hands of those who feel are entitled to be the owners of gold. Some say they are the strong hands. Some say they are the kings of the present and would like to to stay this way.
All gold currently available to the weak hands should be shaken out of their grip. What would be needed is just a few rounds of price volatility.
There are still two problems to be addressed
(1) how to make sure that the only source of information people get is just the MSM vesion of truth? No significant amount of quality information from independent sources (internet)? So internet should be either made unavailable (think China) or bloated with trolls to make it more difficult to find the truth among many writings
(2) how to change or isolate the Asians need to possess physical gold before running out of physical in the West. There are big reserves of the gold 'acquired' in/from Asia before and after the WWII but these are of course unofficial. They can be used to fulfill the most demanding orders but this would be still delivering physical from the West back to Asia.
So you see being a king is not easy
I see you point but I don't think it needs to be shaken out of anybody's hands, I think a new income tax bracket or windfall tax in the mid 80-90% will do the trick...
Won't the gold be needed to flow between currency zones to settle trade imbalances? Such a high tax will just send the gold in your zone into hiding (or black markets). The Euro has already gone this way (no VAT), no?
I believe it will, when it's back in money.
Until then there is, or will be the tax on what is still an investment asset...
South Africa can not function without selling gold and platinum. You can buy all you want.
Every trip your are allowed to bring out 15 oz/person. So then a couple can take out $40K and you can take it anywhere you want.
Thanks for the heads up on that. S.A. is just a hop skip & a jump from OZ.
Yeah, good tip, but I can only bring back the equiv of USD 10,000 where I live...
Not sure they'll let me take it out when I leave though...
This is for those who do not want the goods in the US
It looks like I am going to buy some Gold on Monday.
"I'm gonna buy Moar Gold on Monday.
Keep Stackin!
The only way those miner positions are a good bet is if the metals become dramatically more expensive. Or fuel and other mining costs decline dramatically.
What's up Biaaatches?! - Robot Chicken | [adult swim]
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_q5LqTgME-g
The only way those miner positions are a good bet is if the metals become dramatically more expensive. Or fuel and other mining costs decline dramatically.
The miners have been a disaster for a long time. Good bet Paulson especially not loving his miners since filing:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035674/000114036113021112/000114...
Steve- we suspect that the only investors hating gold as an asset class are those holding paper claims, particularly those with futures contrats at the HKMEx, who has just announced the exchange will cease trading and will cash settle all contracts Monday 5/20!
http://silverdoctors.com/hkmex-to-cease-trading-will-close-out-cash-sett...
THEY are going to "own and run the mine themselves now." (see above.) that's how much money you're talking about now dip shit. needless to say "product is theirs first." but first they have to collectivize their capital...and that means hiring a banker. believe me when i tell you...when you're talking money this big "we ain't talking discretion here folks." this is well past Hollywood shit now. "and yes you'll have to wait for the ending to see how it all turns out."
DOC... what news. Looks like next week will be very interesting. The Bullion banks have played it well. They have transfered the shorts to the Specs and Hedge Funds, while the Commercials now hold the lowest net short positions... lower than Nov 2008.
When the gold and silver markets turn around.... its going to be quite dramatic.
When the gold and silver markets turn around.... its going to be quite dramatic.
Yeah, what about peak silver Rocco? You were saying we'd be hitting peak silver soon?
http://thevictoryreport.org/2011/10/11/peak-silver-by-srsrocco/
But a year later I guess there was some major change because you entirely swapped your thesis and switched to investment demand being the thing that will keep silver afloat inspite of surplus physical (pretty dramatic reversal but I trust you know what you're talking about)...
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4324/guest-post-forces-will-push-silv...
"However, when the deficits disappeared and the surpluses began, the price of silver magically began to rise. The first year silver was no longer in a deficit (2004) it hit an average price of $6.67 an ounce. Then in 2005 it reached an average of $7.32, $11.54 in 2007, $13.38 in 2008, $14.98 in 2009 and so on and so forth.
So, here we can see that the rise in the price of silver since 2004 has less to do with industrial demand and more a factor of increased silver investment."
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/large_silver_...
Interestingly, in your graph the surplus happened right as the price began to spike in 2006 coinciding with the creation of something familiar:
Fund Profile & Information for SLV
Inception Date: 2006-04-21There is this notion that if the world's economies slide into a severe depression, then the demand for silver will fall as industrial activity declines. Thus, we would have much lower silver prices... that is, according to these analysts.
Hogwash.
Again, if industrial demand didn't move the price when we had real annual silver deficits in the past, why on earth would we expect it to affect the price in the future.
So, when silver disconnects from fundamentals it's actually a good thing because investment will continue to pump it up. I think there's a word for this type of asset price speculation...but even imagining such things is heretical I know. I apologize.
Thank God you're such an expert because otherwise I'd think your analysis makes no sense and has been contradictory and incorrect for years... But I do have one question.
Where's my 100/oz silver?
Something I've noticed over the years, polishing my somewhat extensive sterling collection, After a beating, like we've gone through recently, where these evil cocksuckers drive down the 'official' price of Silver (and Gold); I've found that polishing the tarnish off my Silver wares has a very rewarding outcome. Unlike Gold, Silver insists on sweat and strain for its beauty to shine. And it's no easy task as anyone who has polished Silver will attest. But after the toil, Silver rewards you, with its clean glow,, reflecting light better than any other element known to man. It's at these moments that I laugh at the absolute fucking unbelievable low prices that I was able to buy in at, and how much true WEALTH was able to be accumulated while the modern world and finance, unbeknownst, burned.
best name on zh.
The Best Fuckin' name on ZH.
Go get 'em, Al!
Bernanke! Ah'm callin' you out!
--Wild Bill Hickock
Hey Al....i know exactly what you mean....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wx_9MLbQD-0
Do we assume you are trying to collect on a bet? Because if you really want to see what the supply status is, instead of snarking - put in a retail order for that 100oz bar and settle back, cuz it will be a spell. Generic rounds are now six weeks to delivery, used to be two. Mint products? fuggedaboudit...
When silver disconnects from fundamentals? Do people actually listen to you? Do you?
http://tinyurl.com/aws7lhc
I do think Gold will fall a bit further...but Gold is very like my many relationships with women - At times they irrate the hell out of me and I take off, but I still end up coming back.
I'm stealing that :)
Fall..shmall. I agree. So...I buy for the rainy day to come. 2 years, 5 years....it will come. What other HARD asset can I buy? Women are soft.
Women are soft.....but some have GREAT assets ! And those assets make me hard.
Sorry for the crappy play on words, but I had to do it.
Because they're buying low to sell high. Perhaps something PM holders should consider doing with the PM's themselves. The price right now is still high .
You are aware that PM holders are holders because they hold gold? I don't disagree with you on prices, but if you sell it - you don't hold it. And if you don't hold it - you don't own it. And what would you own instead, if you sold? Yeah, there it's getting interesting ....
Right on. A lot of stackers seem to have a hard time with the 'disconnect'. It's not to make a buck, it's to preserve a buck... Which is proving difficult, these days. The opportunity alone, is worth the trip!
It's gotta be easier than whorin'
The most hated asset class huh? Perfect! Excellent buying opportunity!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deuC8GPr31A
I still love gold. I hate the A-holes who are manipulating it.
Don't hate them, it's bad for your health. Just ignore 'em and everything will be fine.
Why? They are giving as a present with this huge discount. If gold was trading at its fundamental value, it wouldn't be for sale at any price in FIAT.
Grab that cash with both hands and make a dash. . .
True dat, but when it was $800, we were at the bottom of Lehman.
Methinks gold will hit $800 again, or far lower, once the real crash comes and the Nouveax riche in China and India collectively shit the bed.
Zerohedge and George Washington got a shout-out on pmbull.
http://www.pmbull.com/
Nice going, guys!
"Buy when everyone around you is selling. Sell when everyone around you is buying."
[paraphrased]
You need to upgrayedd. 2 D's for a double dose of primping.
A Must Read... One of the best, concise, explanations I've seen on the gold market manipulation.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/threat-to-the-hegemony-of-the-us-dollar-rig...
"What good is gold? I mean, you can't eat it!"
(As opposed, presumably, to all those delicious stocks and bonds.)
with a dash of pepper, federal reserve notes make a good soup.
Indeed!
And being high in fiber, you can wipe up after eating them with ..... them.
Yeah?
http://www.ediblegold.com/
Waiter!
There's a Bernank in my soup!
"What good is gold? I mean, you can't eat it!"
(As opposed, presumably, to all those delicious stocks and bonds.)"
Perfect. If you can't eat it, it won't turn into crap.
Actually you can
Bull shit
Any day now......any day.......... now ........... Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied." Otto von Bismarck
Even if I had no interest in gold & silver, I would start buying after reading this stuff.
GREAT fucking quote
and all i'm saying is "buy the folks who buy it by the ton."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ8iZu-BAVM
Just in time for the new reverse proof buffalo!
media, politicians, and bankers desperately trying to guide public sentiment because it's their only option. Fiat is the foundation of everything they are or will be! Here's to their collective demise!
I'd be bearish too if I were dealing in highly leveraged paper.
As far as the physical goes, NO COUNTERPARTY RISK Bitchez !!!
This is late 2007, early 2008 all over again, with an even greater upside awaiting us...
Hulk where I disagree and sure as hell hope i am right is that in 07/08 paper shot up. If this is what we want it to be paper has to go to zero first.
Well there is that !!! Whats different this time is the physical flows. After the defaults and bail ins we have seen in the past 5 years, more and more people, institutions and sovereigns have lost trust in the banks. As time goes on, I expect the flows to increase, because there is nothing but bad shit coming to fiat currency and the fractured reserve system...
I like you so much better than hulk hogan.
Damn knockoffs !!!
HULK smash hulk hogan, puny human !!!
"paper has to go to zero first."
no, it has not. what makes you think that? did it go to zero in 2008?
there will be a price level for gold where nobody with phyzz will be willing to sell, the gold shortage will push everyone with fiat wealth into panic mode, people will ask for delivery. paper gold will collapse taking down whoever issues or trades them and the phyzz price will shoot up into the unknown.
the dow to gold ratio is still too high, expect it to be lower than 1 before 2020, probably much earlier than that.
Western Central Banks, Sovereigns and banksters have declared war on gold through the use of paper soldiers. They will do this as long as they are able to print infinate amounts of 'paper soldiers" and are willing to drive the price down to extraction cost levels. As gold enthusiast I dont like it it, but there it is.
The consiquences of their misdeeds is that only 4% of gamblers ask for delivery in the futures market. Consequently the precious metals futures markets have been given casino licenses in the US and Britain and are protected by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic.
The only way to end this, is to drain physical supply from those that sell it in order to keep the paper gold ponzi alive.
Seems like complete bollocks to drive down the price
But I will take advantage and be buying on the way down starting at 1350
Here's JR's opinion if interested
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7RNGoUuYKk
Buy dry food.
Bulk and wholesale.
Cans, vacuum pack. Warehousing on the down low.
15 billion dolars annually in wasted food. Peoples gonna get hungry in 12 hours.
One word: China.
LOL, why are banks buying it now as well? Talk it down and load up while Bubble Bernanake, teh Fed, BOJ, ECB all destroy their currencies.
I would prefer to be paid for my services in PM's, let me figure out how to convert to usuable currency of my choice. But no, I am paid with a debt instrument increasingly more difficult to utilize thus tranfer into wealth assets.
I will risk on the side of gold/silver if given the choice.
I only accept FIAT for my services because it can be redeemed for gold (albeit at variable price).
The day that paper can no longer be redeemed, I'll refuse to accept it as payment for my work.
Seems like no one notice, I will repost it here again. The HKMEX has anounced to close down gold and silver trading. Open interest will be settled in cash. No delivery!
http://hkmerc.com/en/Media-Centre/Press-Releases/HKMEx-Voluntarily-Surre...
I saw your post and read the link.
Sure seems like a perfect double bottom on the chart, but better wait and see what happens before you "back up the truck."
I dumped most of my paper gold and silver recently, just because of the potential counter party risk. But I do hold physical, added more after the April gap down, and may add more soon.
Does anybody else have an opinion on this?
I still think the price of PM's are high. In my view the value of PM's are a function of the money supply. PMs are money, right? So I have a highly complex and nuanced formula (not!) that I use for determining what I think a fair price is. I take the M2 money supply before things went full retard (for the sake of simplicity 1/1/2007) and then the M2 money supply now and multiply that ratio by the price of silver at that same time.
Silver was selling for $13/ozt on 1/2/07. M2 money supply was roughly 7,000 bil. M2 money supply now is roughly 10,500 bil. 10,500/7,000= 1.5 1.5 times $13 = $19.50. Give or take 5% = range of $20.48 on the high end, $18.52 on the low. For gold you're talking about $960. From my personal perspective, I would be interested in silver at less than $21 and gold at less than $1000. Above those amounts, it's still overpriced in my view.
"From my personal perspective, I would be interested in silver at less than $21 and gold at less than $1000. Above those amounts, it's still overpriced in my view."
If paper gold goes to $1,000, do you REALLY think you're going to be able to just scoop up some physical for that price? LOL! You obviously don't own any physical (or you haven't tried to buy any over the last six months), because if you did, you would know first-hand that taking delivery--even at ridiculous premiums over spot--has been a BITCH. It's truly getting scary. Decoupling has absolutely occurred, and you would be well advised to take your "price" targets and toss them in the nearest trash can...
Sell the remaining paper gold and buy as much physical as possible.
Then sit back and watch the show.
If it is no longer a store of value, why does Germany want it's gold back? venezuala want it's gold back? texas want its gold back? institutions asking abn amro for its gold back to the point where they had cash settlements because they couln't delivery what they didn't have? and i think i am missing a few others, but it is as clear as day as to what is really going on
PS lets not forget the unbelievable apetite from truely old countries like india and china that just can't enough even with a government import tax of 6%
makes you wonder
Belief is the strongest of motivators. The majority of citizens in Western Economies have been promised paradise, to be delivered through the implied strength of Fiat currenciens. Those living in the West have been successfully cut off from gold as a monetary/wealth store of value.
Citizens in the East have retained their faith and belief in gold. It is both cultural and real - since many currencies have seen substantial devaluations up and to including complete wipeouts. We in the West have not expereienced this and have only been subjected to the "slow boil - frog" example with the small loss through inflation annually.
Most really do believe in the fiat currency and various governments ability to keep the fiat system going at all costs.
A heated battle is brewing on Capitol Hill over cuts to the food stamp program, with lawmakers quoting Bible verses at each other and benefits for millions of people hanging in the balance.
Nearly 47 million people – one in seven Americans –?????? ?rely on food stamps for some of all of their daily sustenance, according to the Department of Agriculture, a number that has grown nearly 70 percent since the financial collapse of 2008.
The increased enrollment has caused costs to soar from $35 billion in 2007 to $80 billion last year,
http://inplainsight.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/19/18307642-ax-hovers-over...
"Hungry people are angry people." My guess is printing will not slow down...in fact, QE will increase to meet ss, ebt, section 8, etc.
Then they should try this one, "for if a man does not work neither should he eat"
Then forcing them to realize there is no work. Upon that realization they can begin to understand that labor is the only true source of wealth and excess labor can be stored in the form of gold or other hard assets and if the want convertibility they can use paper backed such that can only be claimed once.Then they can hang Central Bankers. See, that was easy.
well said
i guess the feds are trying to push down the price of gold because they know the chinese want to buy gold and and they want to get as low a price as they can for all that physical gold being exported to the east. very shrewd.
Well, since the crowd is always wrong...
All I know is that when there is so much effort by the system to discredit gold while at he same time the central banks are buying gold, then it's probably a good idea to own some.
Doc I think Kito overdosed on blue pills friday shortly after the market closed.
Evening, fellow long walker.
Do you get that we are those guys walking along?
I hope you saw that book for what it really was. Either way I am glad you read it.
Yeah. That's my take away. My feet are tired. lol.
I enjoyed the book. Thanks for the recommendation. Although not much was said about the background of the story, I think it was sort of implied that the story took place in a world where WWII ended much differently.
I suppose I was expecting more symbolism or something. It was kind of cool that the book did not deliver what I expected. Instead, it left me with more questions than answers. Took me until the next morning (yeah, I'm slow like that) for it to sink in. Then it hit me. That sort of effect was worth the read for sure. Going to pass the book onto friends now. Those who I know are sharing the same journey.
it took me a lot longer than the next morning. it took me a few reads. but that was pre zh. so it ended up being a nice fit when i found this place.
Centerline when each character in the book realized that they had been fooled, did u see that a bit as the blue pill before the blue pill?
Infinity...we are talking about "the long walk"
Stephen king writing as Richard Bachman
If it were not for the recent years forcing me to deal with my own cognitive dissonace, I probably would have felt the same way,... but would not have made the connection. At least not so directly. Plus, being recommended by a friend here at ZH... I went into it looking for "something." This... in itself was almost a perfect set up for a book like this. lol.
Like I said earlier, the book delivered in a way I did not see coming. Last night when I closed the book, I felt stupid. Like I missed the point. This morning it just hit me.
Wish I had a better command of language like Cog Dis and others around here to put it into words.
edit: Yes.. layers of truth. Never seems to end. At least not without going mad in the process. Wind up chasing illusions.
I love posters like Cog Dis and HH but in a way they hand out answers to the exam before u take it. it's books like those that you close and wake up at 3am saying "wtf was that about" and then at some point later on you work your way through to the answer on your own....and there is no better feeling.
That book is going to haunt me for awhile... lol. In a good way though. Staying grounded these days, with wife and kids and all is tough. Anything that gives some perspective is worth it's weight in gold (the physical stuff not the ETF/paper stuff).
On a different subject, if you dont already read Martin Armstrong's site, it is worth checking out from time to time. I think it is called Armstrong Economics. I don't always agree with Martin, or his "play it as it comes" approach, but he is one smart dude for sure.
What's the book? I haven't been on as regularly lately - please don't make me try to dig thru old comments. In need of a new read.
"The Long Walk" by Stephen King.
Thanks and Wow. Couldn't read enough SK when I was young but have to say, it's not been on my reading radar for decades. That guy has strange (and good) talent. I'm a voracious reader. When I was younger it was mostly fiction but, as I've aged, mostly not. I need to switch up. Lately it's been "Bullshit and Philosophy", "Fast Food Nation", "Reading Television", and "Emotional Intelligence".
I haven't seen him post since Thursday. Maybe he is taking a hiatus before his head explodes.
Doc me neither, hopefully he took a short break. I am bummed out about not seeing hedgeless horseman and some others but we got a few back.
Centerline we just continue to march though the rain and sleet and hot sun. Our brains stewing as we do it. All we have to fall back on is our conversation amongst ourselves as we do it. I have a feeling we have a few Olsen's in here.
Yeah I hate seeing people disappear too. There are some people who had some very good insight, and brilliant commentary. It's too bad they decided to leave.
there is a show i am watching on discover channel called "zombie preppers".
I just feel the need to point this out.