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Visualizing The Silver Squeeze
Despite 'crashes' in the market, the demand for physical silver continues to rise. "Buyers are already outpacing sellers by a stunning 50-to-1 ratio. We are seeing the beginning of shortages; but this will only accelerate if Western governments continue with this raid on paper gold and silver."
The Silver Squeeze – An infographic by the team at The Silver Squeeze Free Infographic
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I wouldn't mind smashing Bernanke upside his bald dome with my 100 ounce bar.
As a matter of fact, I would enjoy nothing more.
Physical will eventually win the day. The day of the paper pushers is soon coming to an end.
http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/
http://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-gold-exports-top-100-metric-tonnes-during-...
The United States exported 130 metric tonnes of gold Jan & Feb 2013. Check out what countries got the gold at the SRSrocco Report link above.
don't know what silver is worth
fifty? a hundred? twenty? ten?
hell, don't even know what ashley is worth.
a thousand? a hundred? twenty?
eliot, a little help here.
spoiler: obligatory tyler durden ref in link
A dollar. It says so on the American Silver Eagle.
Too bad the dollar isn't worth a dollar ....
I think you have to look at where you are for the smart price of silver. Utah, unlike Arizona, already accepts all silver as transactional currency (of only a handful of states that even look at silver and gold). Why pay a premium on silver eagles when (if you live in Utah) they already accept any mint-certified and denominated toz of silver? The better deal for Utahns is to buy as many silver rounds as possible. Silver Eagles (certified by the US Gov't to be .999 fine toz is the premium you are paying for), are going to be mistrusted as much as any silver round. "Please, no need for an assay," they will say. The crisis we see is in the erosion of trust as the imaginary world of fiat collapses. If you think someone is going to care about a silver eagle as opposed to a generic silver round, I think you are applying the parameters of today's trust to tomorrow's outcomes. There will be a renaissance of metallurgists that will tell you how fine your silver is, and that will be the price. Or maybe people will care about some "certification" of a gov't that when it counts no longer has credibility. Silver Eagles: overrated.
Just picking up on the overrated eagles I normally pick up my silver in san francisco where i frequently visit because of my job. Last week, the premium on eagles was 6 dollars per coin. I picked up a 10oz bar for 2.5 dollars over spot. Eagles aren't worth the premium, it is almost the same as paying 20% VAT here in the UK where I can get eagles for 19 quid (plus vat). Interestingly gold sovereigns go for spot in the USA, a good deal for a Brit, (til the USD suddenly became strong).
I am about fifty fifty in gold/silver. I still have absolutely no idea which will do the best but I have been concentrating on gold of late.
If you can buy a box of 500 coins it cost
2013 Silver Eagles Monster Box For Sale Sealed U S Mint Silver Boxes
For Sale 2013 American Eagle Monster Coin Boxes
Spot + $3.69
http://www.tulving.com/American/silver_eagle_sealed_mint_box.htm
IN STOCK
Unfortunately, as long as the euroweenies continue to fuck-up their economy...
the dollar comes across as the "cleanest dirty shirt."
Crap, I've been buying so much gold.....I almost forgot about silver.
I'm gonna have to purchase a forklift....that stuff is heavy.
Actually no. Gold has a density or specific gravity of nearly twice that of silver. Yet you can wear a gold belt with 50k worth of gold in it. Why is that?
because silver is THAT UNDERVALUED.
Think about it......
Silver For The People
HONG KONG = CHINA
Except that they can continue to print more paper, and print more paper dollars to paper over any paper losses.
Yes, but paper easily burns, then what?
Burn Gold, Silver, Platinum ect. You STILL have them...
You can lose them in a boating accident, but their still down there. Paper? pffftt....
Yeah, physical will eventually become dominant. Unfortunately,though, this article is bullshit. The article selectively pick a few skewed data points and uses them to try to explain something much bigger in a way that would lead you to an incorrect conclusion.
Premiums on silver have gone up recently, but that in and of itself doesn't say much. You can still buy physical silver, right now, as much as you can afford, for about 6-7% above spot. That's chump change. There is no physical "shortage." But don't believe me, look it up for yourself:
https://comparesilverprices.com/
Trying to explain the silver market based on one product, ASE's is like saying that because a Ferrari is selling at an unusual price premium that there is a general shortage of cars. One doesn't necessarily follow the other. Yes, ASE's are selling for an unusual premium. What can I say? There are plenty of suckers out there.
Mind you, I don't have anything against PM's. I just think they're overpriced right now. Gold moreso than silver. But the prices are coming down and they might yet become a good deal.
The idea that there is a "Silver shortage" promoted by the coin dealers is complete horseshit. You only have to look at the amount of Silver hoarded in SLV. That supply alone far supasses the physical demand for minted coins, ultil they would be coming out your wing wang for a generation.
SLV?
If that were true some smart ass like Kyle Bass would have taken a major position in SLV and asked for delivery and then sold it out in the open market well above spot, which is what is being offered to anyone willing to part with their phyz.
SLV has no silver. It's a joke. If you open the prospectus it's one of those hallmark cards that Yells "Fuck you asshole!!!" in the store and you quickly try to put it back on the shelf.
LOL!!
"SLV has no silver. It's a joke"
Exactly. The SLV was created to distract investment demand away from phyzz. This pond is too small for multimillionaires fishies to swim in much less billionaire fishies. When SLV goes POOF and force settles in cash then they all will howl. So be it. Silver is for the little people only - by decree of the overlords. If you don't hold it you don't own it.
Silver For The People
Actually, "when SLV goes POOF and force settles in cash", that is when the confiscation begins.
Actually, they are in the process of confiscation now. When they feel they have taken enough, then it all goes poof.
The last thing the government will do is confiscate silver and gold. Throughout our history (I am a coin collector) the government has collected and melted PM in order to mint new coins in which the intrinsic value would equal the stated value. (Thus the rarity of old dates, addition of shields, stars, changing sizes, etc)
The government wants control of electronic money since that is by far the easiest to manipulate. What possible good can a few thousand ounces of silver do? We certainly aren't going to use it to back up our currency - there's not nearly enough PM. And we're not using it in trade or to mint coins of PM. I don't know what good holding tons of silver and gold will do for the State.
Yeah that's right it's all one big scam, and there is no Silver backing it. Who told you that was it Spott or that Turk guy from Goldmoney. Both have a vested interest in saying so. to scare investors into their products, or run to your friendly coin dealer who will bilk you with outrageous premiums. All bullshit.
Funny how so many virulent anti-silver and anti-gold trolls, such as XXXXX here (who has been a registered ZH member for 14 months, but only decided to make his first post on April 15th, the day of the first silver and gold smackdown), have swarmed this forum in the last month, perfectly coinciding with the smackdown in the prices of the precious metals.
Purely coincidence, I'm sure.
Don't worry akak, this dickhead will go back to his job at dunkin' donuts when it goes back above $30/ounce. Much like the good old days in gold silver chat,lol. Whenever it went up steadily there were always newbies that thought they had hit the mother load, then piss and moan all the way down hehe. It was good fun to see all the posts of despair.
That's right I am a troll in the employ of the Federal Reserve. My mission is to infiltrate this message board in a last ditch effort to get you to part with your phyz.
It"s the only way we can avert the "Silver Squeeze " that would send that little pile of Silver coins you love to fondle to the moon.
Ok feel better now.
So why didn't you post until April 15th then?
If you can't give us a good answer, please go crawl back under your rock.
I have traded Silver since 2001. I trade Silver every day, long or short it does not matter to me.
I don't hang out posting all day on ZH. I just felt like calling horseshit on this type of article. If Silver turns up I will be long if it does not I have no problem shorting it.
Ah, a trader....that explains why you endorse the fraud ridden ETF SLV.
And what exactly is "horseshit" in the article? ASE sales are off the hook...isn't that relevant information when talking about physical demand?
as a trader please name anything else that had the margin requriements raised 5 times in 7 days or whatever that was when it hit new highs other than PMs?
xxxxx
The dedicated guys on here will not acknowledge anything you say, trust me I've been saying gold / silver is in a bear market for the past 8 months and they're all still in denial (amazingly).
The idea that there's a shortage of physical silver right now is INSANE to anyone who understands the market. And the other point from this nonsense info-graphic, the avg production cost of silver is extremely skewed because of many absurd mine operations coming online thanks to high spot price.
But... the dedicated folks on here will go on believing whatever fantasy they like and call you a lying troll if you point out the obvious.
So don't expect any epiphanies from them.
James the argument for SLV is riduculous.
In any event. You obviously disagree. So where do you believe is a good place to allocate capital to?
James the argument for SLV is riduculous.
I was short slv in the fall for obvious reasons.
xxxx is wrong about the claims on phys demand for Silver, but that demand is also misunderstood on here for other reasons.
So what do yo believe is a good place to allocate capital to?
I've said it before I'm no investment oracle. I just know some things about about the pm markets.
There's someone lower down on this thread upset that they're currently way underwater on their silver holdings, likely bought based on the kind of hyperbole sold by the silver sell-side conmen.
I'm not trying to tell people what to invest in - that should be done on an individual basis with a lot of criteria in mind. My point is if you had a friend who was curious about investing in something you knew about i.e. dia you'd probably want to convey the actual picture / risks etc. that are not expressed on CNBC, right? I'm not doing differently.
do you spend an equal amount of time on other sites threads pumping stocks/real estate etc. etc?
"xxxx is wrong about the claims on phys demand for Silver"
"if you point out the obvious"
If he is wrong then how did he point out the "obvious"?
Can you answer either of these questions directly?
do you spend an equal amount of time on other sites threads pumping stocks/real estate etc. etc?
I don't 'pump' any stocks. The pm market happens to be a particular interest of mine but I'm not trying to steer people away from pms into stocks - I NEVER have - I don't think I have ever advocated any stock positions on any comment thread on zh.
If he is wrong then how did he point out the "obvious"?
As far as the SLV I don't agree with xxxx, but his larger point:
"The idea that there is a "Silver shortage" promoted by the coin dealers is complete horseshit." "Spott or that Turk guy from Goldmoney. Both have a vested interest in saying so."
We're on the same page and I think it is the more important one considering the sell-side guys on here.
"I don't 'pump' any stocks"
EVADE
Sorry for any confusion...I did not mean to ask you if you pumped any stocks. My question was if you dedicate the same amount of time and energy to fighting those that do.....
"The pm market happens to be a particular interest of mine"
The most honest thing you have said on this site.
Haha...nice one fonz.
His "particular interest" is all too clear at this point.
I'm so tired of this shit BOP.
I loves me a bar fight!
What the trolls don't understand is:
Buy low sell high.
So why come in here when the price of silver/gold is low, and tell us to sell? Trolls. Probably paid about $0.25 a post, but still trolls.
So why come in here when the price of silver/gold is low, and tell us to sell? Trolls.
If you'd of sold when I first started posting the negative outlook on here you would've sold ~$1750 gold and ~$35 silver. Not a top for either, but not bad and certainly much better than now. Not to mention you could rebuy now with a lot of protection to the downside.
Anyway, I've never advocated selling directly on here. Everyone needs to consider their portfolio on an individual basis. I'm just throwing a few facts at the stream of hyperbolic bullshit.
"I don't 'pump' any stocks"
EVADE
I didn't evade the question at all.
As far as 'fighting' the other sell side types, I don't spend a lot of time on websites that promote stocks. I've tangled with lots of REIT type folks in my personal life but that doesn't come up a lot online. On newsites I constantly question the real estate recovery and similarly get called a troll.
Particularly on zh though the idea is that they're delivering honest commentary on the financial industry but when it comes to pms (specifically gold/ silver) there's a lot of sell-side and very little critique. I figure someone needs to be the cold water.
The most honest thing you have said on this site.
It's of particular interest to a lot of people on here, don't get why that's specifically honest.
Dear James_Cole,
Every time when gold and silver were under attack and manipulation, I've heard lot of shit like yours. But every time, I go to buy gold and silver again. And in the end, my decision every time is the only correct one.
"I'm not trying to tell people what to invest in - that should be done on an individual basis with a lot of criteria in mind"
You mean how much paper they should carry so the FED and the banks can make it go up in a puff of smoke. Nice dodge shill.
Troll tag team, or sock puppet?
They retort. You decide.
Sock puppet. Like was mentioned above, all these users registered years ago but didn't have anything to say until the coordinated silver/gold smash? Lurking I understand, but thats straight trolling. 8 months does not a bear market make, Mr James Cole.
People are in it for the long haul, so they don't appreciate someone giving them unsolicited advice, about what to do in the short run!
Sock puppet. Like was mentioned above, all these users registered years ago but didn't have anything to say until the coordinated silver/gold smash?
The outlook on gold changed fundamentally at the time I started writing about it going down on here. Gold was ~$1750 and I had noticed the market was about to move down for a sustained period, so I started writing about why I thought that was going to happen.
Which made a lot of people on here mad, they disputed all my arguments and soruces and counter-claimed that gold was going to $2000 and beyond. Every time gold moved down a bit there was a chorus on here saying "BTFD" and I was pretty much the only one saying to consider the fact that this downturn is likely to be sustained and far deeper.
For people who claim to be 'fight club' y'all sure love 'herd' mentality.
People are in it for the long haul, so they don't appreciate someone giving them unsolicited advice, about what to do in the short run!
There's definitely people who've bought it as a shorter-term investment, they appear in the comments from time to time. And I bet there's a lot more who won't admit it. Either way, why pay more per oz than you have to?
Simply understanding the market a bit would save a lot of people from being ripped off at their coin shop.
Can you at least appreciate the irony of his username?
No, I see no irony in his name at all --- "James Cole" as a name means absolutey nothing to me.
If you are privy to some knowledge of this name that others here are not, feel free to share it with us.
In my three years here, I've rarely met anyone at ZH that twists, distorts and evades more on gold and silver issues than you James.
Agreed.
I smelled his stinky troll underwear from his very first post here.
.
Those certainly are the crustiest bits.
He never offers an alternative. That is the tell. He is just here out of some self imposed moral obligation.
If he can tell us he spends the rest of his day on cnbc.com talking down the stock bulls with the same passion...
.
Ah, he is a Mission Poster®.
Very telling, very AnAnonymystical.
The offuscationalizing of his anti-silverism is blobbing-up and being forced to the exterior in a very mattering way.
The nature of 'anti-silverist' tarnishitizenism citizens is eternal.
ROR!
Thanks! A reasoned response.
I am not bashing Gold and Silver. Hell I would love nothing more than to see them blast off to the upside! Maybe Friday was a double bottom.
For now my stance is bearish until, and unless price says otherwise.
Silver and Gold have a kind of cult status, people fall in love with them. It's almost like a religious conviction.
The debt ceiling is coming up again, another US downgrade? the stock market is in la la land. The Fed is fighting like hell to raise the market in hopes of raising the economy from the dead. That includes smacking down Gold to make the safe haven the dollar.
We may see fireworks like the summer of 2011.
Listen troll,
You already admitted you are a trader not an investor. That means you push a keyboard all day thinking you are getting richer by showing a higher number of digits on a computer screen somewhere than some other guy does. What you really are is a sucker. And when all your clever accounts of ones and zeroes get shut down you will be left with nothing but the shirt on your back. Now go read something about undervalued assets and stack some silver before your paper wealth gets vaporized.
The idea the markets will close down, and we will go to some kind of barter system, where only the astute folks like your sel,f who prudently own physical Gold and Silver will have anything of value is just a wet dream.
James_Cole says:
"I've been saying gold / silver is in a bear market for the past 8 months and they're all still in denial (amazingly)".
======
I'm surprised you 8 months, you can not understand what you're talking nonsense.
You can even understand the meaning of the phrase "bear market"! You understand that the phrase "bear market" is a phrase of two words? You realize that one of these two words sound like "the market"?
Now tell me where you've seen "the market" in the events that took place with the gold and silver in the last 8 months?
If you do not understand the differences between the concepts of "the market" and "manipulation", then you need to learn a lot about the concept of "the market." But if you understand this, then of course you're realy a troll.
James_Cole says:
"I've been saying gold / silver is in a bear market for the past 8 months and they're all still in denial (amazingly)".
======
I'm surprised you 8 months, you can not understand what you're talking nonsense.
You can even understand the meaning of the phrase "bear market"! You understand that the phrase "bear market" is a phrase of two words? You realize that one of these two words sound like "the market"?
Now tell me where you've seen "the market" in the events that took place with the gold and silver in the last 8 months?
If you do not understand the differences between the concepts of "the market" and "manipulation", then you need to learn a lot about the concept of "the market." But if you understand this, then of course you're realy a troll.
teacher teacher i know the answer
Long live physical Gold And Silver.
ASE sales is one data point amongst many. There are several other products that are not selling for idiotic premiums. So is it relevant to talk about ASEs, but not very relevant.
If you're a trader, you play by the matrix rules.The facts of the matrix can be used to make fiat money. Facts of the real world are irrelevant in the matrix. In the matrix fiat has value while in reality that value only resides in within our shared consciousnesses. We accept fiat as a valued asset. Therefore, we are still part of the matrix. When we can all throw fiat to the ground, that is the moment we all become free thinkers. The real struggle begins after that moment.
Im holding a little over 1000 oz bought between $6 and $11. Im still quite happy with at at $23. I must admit I was sorely tempted to sell some as it approached $50. But then all I would have had was a pile of paper to watch as it evaporated at the "official" rate of 2% per annum. No thanks I will wait a bit longer, methinks the silver elevator is gonna take me higher than the green paper one. I am not "a trader", I can afford to wait.
That's my story, too. Though your stack is a little higher than mine, and you bought a little earlier than I did. Now my money is only doubled. A while ago it was tripled. Actually, it hasn't changed at all as far as I'm concerned; I haven't sold any yet. But I have noticed that gasoline and ice cream have about doubled over the same timeframe, and little chunks of silver are a lot easier to store than gasoline and ice cream. Or at least, they were until that unfortunate boating accident.
Agreed. A few years ago when silver moved out of my "buy range" I switched to ammo. It also stores well and I picked up quite a lot under .30/round. That has worked out well for me too. I think it may be time to start buying silver again, but it is not as easy to find as it was.
Are you selling the ammo now or holding it?
Just curious... I did the same thing and have a lot of 9mm and .22 that I purchased for even less than you. Certainly more than I need... How does one go about selling it and maximizing return? Craigslist?
xxxxx - Do you trade physical Silver, or paper silver?
I trade the phony paper Silver. You know the one that determines the real price, daily, minite by minite. Not the hard physical stuff that everyone on this board knows is extremely rare and therefore priceless.
LOL God, you are good (and I'm a PM collector). It's odd how any comment differing from official mythology is grounds for a massive attack on character, goals and ideas. I've said it before, these guys may survive the Apocalypse but who in the hell would want to be their neighbor? Listing hard facts (silver is not hard to find outside of 1 oz bars) is grounds for a barrage of down arrows and wailing as if that changes reality. Why not collect "real" PM instead of the paper stuff. You don't really believe that in an emergency you could take delivery do you?
These new trolls are nothing to what I used to do when I was in Shitko. I would not create a screen name and then come back when Silver gets slammed. NO! You have to work harder to establish credibility from day one and then after many seemingly legitimate posts you attack the gold bugs. Not after 15 months
No, xxxxx and James Cole are not trolls. They're just guys with a different point of view than you. Why in the hell would anyone waste their time becoming a troll on a board like this where minds wouldn't change if Adam Smith appeared and told them they were wrong? I think what was pointed out (and not disputed) is that silver is NOT rare except in 1 oz sizes and thus, there is a credibiilty gap with the article (which, after all, wants us to buy PMs from them).
wow.....asinine.....look xxxxx.....take this piece of advice....
Grab a silver slugger from Bernankes' trophy case...lube it up....and ram it up yer arse....
and fuck off...
LOLOL! I disagree with your position but LOVE the response. Take these folks with a grain of salt. Anyone deviating from the party line is immediately and savagely attacked, written off as a sheeple, traitor or conspirator (or all three). No one escapes their wrath - Ryan, Laffer, Freidman, von Mises, Kutler, Rand Paul, Rubio, Reagan, Thatcher, Volker. Still waiting for Ron Paul to get the boot from all those who "knew all along that he was an agent of the Mossad-Vatican Axis. Just check out this You Tube video. " LOL
Dude do you even know who issues SLV? Have you read the prospectus? You are an are a clueless seeking alpha sheep, lost, using SLV as a proxy for anything. Call em up, ask em how, if you own the etf, you are able to request delivery of physical. Then get back to us.
Dude do you know anything about SLV except what you read from conspiracy nuts. Like some self perpetuating urban myth
Feel free to start here.
http://us.ishares.com/content/stream.jsp?url=/content/en_us/repository/resource/prospectus/silver.pdf
Hey fonz, as an aside don't forget to mention that if you wish to purchase Phyzz Ag from a LCD there is quite the delay from the time of purchase until actual delivery.
Many dealers won't offer sub-ozt Eagles because of delays from the mint-and all including generic rounds have up to hefty premiums.
Would love to purchase phyzz of any type at spot price, how about you?
God I love when ZH attracts paid shills. Tells you you are doing something right.
"conspiracy nuts"
goobermint troll confirmed
The amount of silver represented by the Shares will decrease over the life of the trust due to the sales necessary to pay the sponsor’s fee and trust expenses. Without increases in the price of silver sufficient to compensate for that decrease, the price of the Shares will also decline and you will lose money on your investment in Shares.
This paragraph from page 7 of the prospectus is particularly telling.
Bite me, Troll.
Enjoy your stawks while they last buddy.
No, Bass could take delivery (say, from Sprott) and then sell it at spot, because that is the market for good delivery bars or for size. If he wanted to mint and sell individual coins on EBay or to LCSs, he could get the retail mark-up, but it is hardly worth his time. He could also take delivery of pork belly contracts, set up a diner on a highway truckstop, and sell side orders of bacon to capture the same sort of premium over spot.
Obviously I am a troll, because instead of taking in hook, line and sinker what the Sinclairs or Turks or Jim Willie's of the world spout, I visited markets and dealers to see if this "Asian panic buying" was happening (a week in April, yes; after that, and now that prices are back to mid April levels, no), and to gauge the real "paper-phyzz" price differential. Your own experience may differ, but I found that for size, paper=phyzz bid and ask. Cash and carry.
It is baffling to me that the same people who are so ready to "sheeplefy" people for accepting without question what the MSM or government announces, are themselves so willing to accept without question the pronouncements of others who might have a vested interest in telling a story. The real market is not Ebay or Tulving or the local coin shop, just as the real cost of production worldwide is not the US (with typical salaries, OSHA and EPA dictated expenditures) cost.
I'm not disparaging PMs. I think their time will come again (at least gold, silver not so sure), but not yet. Anyone who buys would be well served to buy for the right reasons, though, and not because of some false hype and dubious correlations.
Very well said.
Or he could sell it on Nucleo Direct. People are bidding $24 bucks right now for 1 oz bullion. Nothing is selling though, as no seller is willing to let it go for sell than $26.
Why is no one engaging in arbitrage? Because no one can get silver at spot price? Or because no one wants to sell their silver for a mere $22.34 (or even $24)?
Same question to you City of London troll. Since you don't like silver, what are your investment recommendations?
......................
We won't hold our breath waiting for your answer.
Funny, that no one is doing that, buying up SLV, thought that money (paper) is free!
Silver is silver, paper is paper. SLV is paper silver, also known as paper.
So you, Room101, in your infinite omniscience, believe that gold and silver are "overpriced" when their (manipulated, suppressed, artificially low) spot prices are already flirting with their production costs? Do you really expect miners to produce both metals at a loss?
I would be very curious to know just how YOU personally determine what you believe is a "fair price" for the precious metals.
flirting with their production costs? Do you really expect miners to produce both metals at a loss?
Obviously they won't produce them below cost - which is why so many mines closed in the 90s. Not that complicated....
The only mines being seriously pursued in the past couple years had cash costs of ~$500 - 700 with minimum ~5mil oz. And that was still the bull run..
And on the silver front:
http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/silver-production/
Global silver mine production grew last year to 787.0 Moz, primarily due to by-product output from the lead/zinc sector. Primary silver mine supply grew by 1 percent to account for 28 percent of global silver mine output.
Primary silver mine cash costs rose to $8.88 an ounce, reflecting higher prices for labor, electricity, and maintenance charges.
More disingenuously misleading bullshit from James Cole.
"Primary cash costs" in mining are FAR from the complete, all-in costs of mining and producing any metal.
Plus, it is exceedingly difficult to give a single such figure for silver in any event, as the bulk of it is produced in conjunction with (NOT merely as a "byproduct of") other metals.
The "more disingenuously misleading bullshit" from James Cole is straight from the silver institute. It's an industry group. Why would they want to lie? How does it help them?
If silver is a by-product to primary production, it's cost is essentially factored in to the cost of the primary metal. Or said another way, it's just a bonus. Not free, but close to it.
The so-called Silver Institute is, just like the so-called World Gold Council, a bankster-led and dominated sham of an "industry group" devoted to minimizing investment interest in, and heatedly denying the monetary attributes of, the precious metals.
Of course! I knew there was something funny about their accent. Amazing the details known to guys who sit around in their boxers bitching on ZH all day. You'd think that these powerful groups would at least try to hide their nefarious machinations from the masses but apparently they are so stupid they can't. But wait, if they're so stupid how did they get so powerful.
What I still can't fathom is why folks think that a government whose characeristics are mismanagement, inefficiency, bad policy, bankruptcy and inabilty to keep a secret can execute amazing conspiracies involving thousands of people with pin-point accuracy and never a mistake. I just don't get it.
.
Perhaps they're following in the footsteps of the veracity Jon Gonadler attempt to delay the inevitable results of it perish fate.
Flirting with production costs? According to whom. Some PM shill in a slick brochure? Let's look at what the industry itself has to say. Here is something from the Silver Institute :
http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/silver-production/
According to them "Primary silver mine cash costs rose to $8.88 an ounce, reflecting higher prices for labor, electricity, and maintenance charges." So costs of production were up. Not quite $23.26 an ounce up, but they were up in 2012.
How do I determine a fair price for silver? Fair question. In my view it's a function of the money supply. PMs are money, right? So I have a highly complex and nuanced formula (not!) that I use. I take the M2 money supply before things went full retard (for the sake of simplicity 1/1/2007) and then the M2 money supply now and multiply that ratio by the price of silver at that same time.
Silver was selling for $13/ozt on 1/2/07. M2 money supply was roughly 7,000 bil. M2 money supply now is roughly 10,500 bil. 10,500/7,000= 1.5 1.5 times $13 = $19.50. Give or take 5% = range of $20.48 on the high end, $18.52 on the low. For gold you're talking about $960. From my personal perspective, I would be interested in silver at less than $21 and gold at less than $1000. Above those amounts, it's still overpriced in my view.
And you are right from a market perspective. That's exactly how it should be price as a commodity, or 'money'. In normal time such as they are.
But as Martin Armstrong says, "PMs measure peoples trust in the Gov."
They are what you convert from After what is to follow.
A hedge against the whole game. Playing the market on it in the mean time is like offering options on chairs while the music is still playing during musical chairs.
Taking delivery of the "Chair" when the music stops is where the rubber meets the road. People who have bought heavy metal and are just holding it, are mostly people who want to already Have their "Chair" Before the music stops.
That is what the difference of the two different metal camps. Mostly talking past each other.
Absolutely true: PM's ARE a measure of people's trust in government. Contrary to what a lot of my fellow ZHers hope/wish/want to believe, there is no pitchfork brigade forthcoming in the near future. The average person is perfectly happy to keep and use dollars. The Fed and their ilk can continue this for a long time. The US Dollar, right or wrong, is the reserve currency for the world. It will continue to be for awhile. And right now the US dollar is one of the healthier patients in the chemo ward. Given that there really are no decent investments right now, the dollar is a pretty good place to be.
Ultimately, I do agree with the argument that fiat currencies, including the dollar, will eventually fail. As always, the question comes down to the timing. Is that going to come in one year, 5 years, 20 years, or 100 years? So when do you need to grab a chair? I don't think we're quite there yet. I also think PM's are relatively expensive right now. If you think that financial apocalypse is immediately forthcoming, then they're a bargain right now. I don't happen to think that. But as I've indicated above the price of silver is getting close to being attractive. Another 10% drop and I can see myself buying.
"the US dollar is one of the healthier patients in the chemo ward"
True, but most people don't choose to live in a chemo ward because that's for people who are DYING just like your fake western rigged dollar, pound, euro, yen currencies are DYING.
What about this chart says the dollar is healthy?
Of course you are correct. In fact, many libertarian economists now see the dollar as the last currency standing due to the inertia of its global prominence. The public couldn't care less and the last thing they'd want is to be forced to switch to another currency and try to figure out its value...."Is 2 for 1 the same as 1 for 2? Duh"
Zh posters have been predicting financial Armageddon "by the end of the week", "next month", "within the quarter", "soon", "next year", etc which proves the unreliability of prophets. The dollar will fall some day as all currencies have but it will not be anytime soon. And yes, I have silver and gold. LOL
I am an owner of pms and also work in the field. You are correct, there is no shortage. When pricing first plunged nearly anything one ounce was bought up which created a shortage in one ounce (only). We had plenty of higher ounce silver which never moved.
Today we have plenty of one ounce on hand and lead time for more is only a week or two out.
Premiums, wholesale, are elevated on silver eagles still a bit (couple bucks more). And of course high to begin with. I don't understand the fascination with paying 7 bucks retail on an eagle compared to a couple bucks on a generic, but hey, to each there own.
It's almost like the squeeze I take the morning after a 'large' circle K cup of boiled peanuts!
Silver is expensive to mine. Large bars of silver make me happy. Rolls of coins make me happy.
Buy platinum.
I'm sure someone like James Cole will offer some briliant insight as to why physical demand no longer matters in these markets.
Bay, By the sounds of the boots on the ground supply is gone or getting lean. Something will give soon, make friends your local coin shop!
I'm sure someone like James Cole will offer some briliant insight as to why physical demand no longer matters in these markets.
Physical demand is the silver market, that's why its so clear there's no phys squeeze.
Unfortunately it's not a brilliant insight, pretty obvious.
James Cole blurted out this non sequiturd:
Dude, are you on crack? What about that little matter of the 100:1 leveraged 'paper silver' market of Jeffrey Christian fame?
Total silver fabrication demand in 2012 dipped to 846.8 Moz, reflecting losses in key areas. Industrial silver fabrication slipped by 4 percent to 465.9 Moz, the result of the challenging economic environment seen in many industrialized countries. However, India recorded a 4 percent gain while China experienced a small increase in industrial demand.
Worldwide jewelry fabrication at 185.6 Moz remained effectively unchanged from 2011, thereby proving far more resilient than gold with its 4% decline. Growing consumption in India and China for silver jewelry offset softer western markets. Photographic demand for silver fell to 57.8 Moz, while the silverware sector slipped to 44.9 Moz due to ongoing structural factors and economic weakness.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/silver-supply/
Ah, avoiding answering the question or dealing with the subject at hand. Again.
Evade. Mislead. Ignore.
The hallmarks of troll James_Cole.
Evade. Mislead. Ignore.
Evade? No. I linked to the actual numbers from the Silver market and it's clear the physical side is the dominant market. That doesn't mean though that the physical is the dominant factor in the spot price, correct. If the later were true silver spot would be a lot LOWER.
What the fuck are you going on about here, James?
It's one thing to lie, but another to actually insult us.
It is widely known that the 'paper silver' market is larger by MANY multiples than the actual physical silver market. Even your hero, Jeffrey "100:1" Christian, admitted as much in his testimony three years ago.
It is widely known that the 'paper silver' market is larger by MANY multiples than the actual physical silver market. Even your hero, Jeffrey "100:1" Christian, admitted as much in his testimony three years ago.
My hero?? Inventing things now?
Anyway, what he said is actually not controversial, its the same way (more or less) all commodities are hedged and yes 'manipulated' but again not in the way YOU think, or the sell-side guys lie about.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/11/cme-aluminum-idUSL2E8FBNYS2012...
^ a famously manipulated market, if the silverbugs on here actually understood how these schemes work they'd approach their investing a lot differently...
People are saving in gold and Silver so paperbugs like you can suffocate on your own toxic narcobux, drive the price down watch me buy more.
Bay of Pigs said:
How did you get him to bark on cue like that?
BoP got James_Coleslaw to do exactly that in another recent thread as well --- and for some reason, when I pointed it out, I was repeatedly downarrowed for having done so. Interesting.
More ridiculous lies from the silver charlatans.
Fifty times more buyers than sellers!
This way to the egress, suckers!
MDB incognito?
I hope not, far too crass for MDB.
Unless of course he's half in the bag? It is Saturday after all.
MDB is more subtle. And this guy just happens to be right. This is more bullshit from silver charlatans. While the silver charlatans aren't quite as bad as the paper pimps, they're still in the same class as snake oil salesmen.
James_Cole, are you hiding in Room 101?
Never even heard of the guy. Nor do I care. It doesn't take a Ph.d to see a snake oil pitch, and PM's have their share of them.
I'm sorry if I don't subscribe to the ZH quasi-religion on PM's. Truth be told, I actually kind of like PMs. Assuming that they can be bought for what I believe to be a fair price. I don't ascribe some sort of mystical talisman properties to them is all. PMs are a commodity. A pretty one and one that I happen to like, but when the day is done they are simply commodities that have been used as money. There isn't a country on the planet that I'm aware of that uses PMs as currency right now. I think that will probably change thanks to benzelbub, but we aren't there yet and may never get there.
Is that Room 101 in the Federal Reserve building?
Feds Plotted Invasion of Social MediaSnake oil salesmen? Dude. At least my humble investment in silver will not do as many of my former stock pics did and go to ZERO.
I'll choose the silver charlatans over their FED homologues any time.
At least they don't create their merchandise out of thin air...
I was wrong, it wasn't James Cole, you showed up first to offer up some brilliant analysis.
In general, any claim of more buyers than sellers, or vice versa is meaningless. On a per ounce basis there has to be a seller for every buyer. Think about toilet paper (no don't junk me - I am not suggesting any similarity to silver). How many sellers Vs buyers? Do you consider each store to be seller, in which case there are probably "only" thousands of times more buyers than sellers, or if only the producers count as sellers, then there are millions of times more buyers than sellers. The only thing that matters is the supply. If the supply is not enough to fill the demand the price will go up and vice versa.
What does "buyers outpacing sellers" mean? If one ounce is bought, one ounce is sold. Am I missing something?
More and more peoples' entry points for investing in the PM sector are being triggered. It's called supply and demand.
You can have 50 people who want an ounce or more of silver and you may have only one person who is willing to give up 50 or more ounces.
And the other 49 will gladly sit and wait for delivery.
Hence, the "had 6 week delays" in the infographic.
Think of it like a PM store.
Are they getting more inquiries from buyers or sellers on a given day.
exactly. Haha how else would price move if there were always equal buyers and sellers?
of course there are more buyers when the price tanks... people will just hold their silver if it drops, so the question is why does the price drop? Just because of the paper price? If that was the case, then the coin dealers would just hold and not sell at low prices right? I guess they aren't really believers and just take advantage of the silver bugs.
so all these buyers can't bring the price back up then they are powerless
and I just bought some silver this week with bitcoins.. i think i am stacking faster than you stackers
Fuck these people keep stacking,,,,,,keep stacking....Keep stacking...Keep stacking
I hate when they spell the word phenomenon as phenominom...for all I know, they could be talking about a sliver instead of silver. Where's the truthiness here?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ePqn5Ci5FY
Silver kills vampires.
I thought it was werewolves and bernankes.
Lew me< Just Lew me>
lol
I thought it was bringing good luck in.
It sure kills Silver investors $50 to $22 and change.
And that massive price change doesn't serve as evidence that the PM paper market sucks as a price discovery mechanism? IMHO futures contracts are pure gambling; a sane financial system would require delivery of every commodity bought and sold. Then we'd have real price discovery based on real market factors, rather than investment manipulation.
The launch pad for silver on the last run was 17 two years ago, and it went to the upper 40's, a double for those who took it. Those who insist on taking the round trip will lose the opportunity costs and the time decay, but hey, all ZH'ers are immortal!
It kills paper investors, and it's an opportunity for OWNERS.
When I see those price drops my mouth drops, waters, and I quickly see how may rounds I can afford to buy.
nice Saturday evening porn