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Silver Plunges As Yen Stop Surge Triggers Margin Liquidation

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Not a moment after someone was slammed with a massive margin call following the hit of 102 USDJPY stops as we noted moments ago, was that same someone(s) forced to dump a whole lot of silver in thin, no volume trading taking out the entire bid stack on what can only be described as "get me the hell out and pay me anything" liquidation, sending the precious metal to just over $20, before yet another round of buying programs kicked in, and sent it right back up, allowing those quick enough to capitalize on some foolish macro trader's blowing up to pocket a huge profit before Japan has even woken up.

Thank you Kuroda, Bernanke and co for this total farce of a "market."

 

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Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:19 | 3578404 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Just put the freaking margins at 100% already.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:26 | 3578430 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

How bout 110%? You know, like negative interest rates(NIRP)

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:34 | 3578449 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Water water everywhere yet nary a drop to drink...

(Nor an ounce of physical to buy for that matter... Christ... 10 week delivery waits make me a nervous critter... )

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:38 | 3578474 indianajohns04
indianajohns04's picture

http://www.silvertowne.com/........it doesn't take that long?

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:52 | 3578512 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Maples at $29?... Pandas at $30.50?...

Thanks... but I think I'll just drop some more zantax and wait...

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:53 | 3578518 Spider
Spider's picture

If you're going to be scared out of your silver position b/c a hedge fund Yen liquidation - you shouldnt be in the metal. 

Costs of silver are more than $23-24 per ounce for miners all-in - this is setting us up for a supply crunch

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303691-the-true-cost-to-mine-silver-complete-2012-figures

 

As for me, i'll be buying more physical - I dont care if it goes unde $20

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:55 | 3578532 The Phu
The Phu's picture

Thanks to this ZH post, I decided to BTFD and just bought eleven 10-ounces bars with about $1.89/oz prem.  I'm happy.  Thanks Uncle Ben!!!!

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:00 | 3578558 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

That's the secret, congratulations. Take what you are given. There's always a way to make money.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:30 | 3578653 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

so a few months ago when you bought at $1.89 prem but much higher price that was a great buy too?

 

I think stackers only care about what the premium is and are blind to price swings...  do any of you ever sell??

 

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:34 | 3578669 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Sold a ton at $34/oz a while back, still got some cash left too.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:07 | 3578763 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Riiiight!

And I sold all mine at $49/oz!

/sarc

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:06 | 3579127 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

I traded for Pt at < 40:1 (1815/46).  Pt has gone down 375 benny bucks per oz since then but somehow it doesn't bother me so much since 3 oz of Pt is now "worth" 200 oz of Ag. But of course that's just on paper which means NOTHING.  LCS "may" trade me at 60:1 when the paper ratio is 70.

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 11:13 | 3580301 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

I did sell half my stack at $47 and some of my gold at $1800 back then..  i have bought in a bit on the downward slide but those will go to the hold stacks and i wait for the next upswing to sell the other stuff

 

rotating your stacks for trading increases your stacks..  just buying blindly is kinda dumb

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:06 | 3578766 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

good to hear - I still keep buying and selling PM's but hardly ever hear anyone on this site say they sell

it is easier now when making money on bitcoins and then using them to buy since there is no credit card markup on certain sites that take btc for pms

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:10 | 3578791 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

"hardly ever hear anyone on this site say they sell"

There's a reason for that.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:21 | 3578833 lickspitler
lickspitler's picture

MMMMMM  Bitcoins  looking very  strong and stable today

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:27 | 3578859 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Must be some "hot money" gettin ready to rush through the pipe ;-)

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 11:18 | 3580319 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

yes there is..  the reason is that most of you 'stackers' are just shills for your online PM stores..  that is why you just keep saying buy buy buy

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:23 | 3578843 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Heh heh...  What about those poor suckers that bought bitcoin over $250 and then watched it fall in half overnight?  

But hey, they avoided credit card charges to buy their silver. Woo hoo!  Sounds like a plan.

 

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:26 | 3578855 Nitrocharged
Nitrocharged's picture

cruel but true....

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:35 | 3578880 lickspitler
lickspitler's picture

HE HEH  what about those poor suckers who bought Silver over $45 then watched it fall to over half .

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:41 | 3578900 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Something tells me there may be a sheik or 2 that bought near 50.35 and have been waiting 30+ years for it to go (much) higher.  Generational wealth still means something in certain parts of the world.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:33 | 3579032 Mine Is Bigger
Mine Is Bigger's picture

It's not over yet.

Besides, silver has fallen more.  It nearly hit $50.  And it is now trading below $22.

I am just saying.  I bought some of my silver near that top.  But I am not that concerned.  I don't plan to sell any of them for some time.

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 00:08 | 3579367 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

Same. I also bought some at the high and I too am not concerned. I'm presently debating at which price to buy more... it dips daily so I'm trying to get the best price i can to offset some of that high price I paid.

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 01:40 | 3579465 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

And in our advanced society and modern finance with the greatest PhDs running the show (sarc), I wonder why so many people don't understand that things traded, a market, are still subject to the same phenomenon as in the past. Greed/fear, etc is still there whether it is silver, tulips, stocks or bitcoins.

Yes, I hold some PMs. But only a portion of my assets I don't want to marry stocks, PMs, bonds or any other such instrument. I can't fuck them. But they sure can fuck me.

And that is probably the worst post I've ever made. As I've said in the past. I think PMs will rise relative to other markets. PMs have been in decline. So in my view point, we are headed for massive declines in other markets to make that comparison. Do not forget, that PMs, in fact most markets declined in a deflationary environment. What money is there or created was used to service debt. And we have worldwide debt that exceeds all the printing. That lefaves very little money for demand to buy. But all in due time. I'm glad I have my PMs. I'm also glad I don't have a ton of it.

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 11:15 | 3580308 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

not a whole lot of transactions during that peak right?? how many people bought silver over $40?

 

you guys did right? you buy all the time 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:36 | 3578884 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Why sell Au with the GSR this high?  Trade for Ag while it's still available.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:25 | 3579175 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Nope!

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 08:10 | 3579707 Hayabusa
Hayabusa's picture

Look, I've been buying PMs for years... when I first started purchasing them I didn't understand how easily prices could be manipulated via

changing margin rates, dumping "paper physical", etc.  I've come to the conclusion we've all been suckers in this bet and the only ones making

money are those who buy/sell PMs and take their share (no matter what happens to spot) via spot plus premiums.  Go ahead and keep buying

PMs and giving the dealers their premiums (it's a lot like Vegas, the house always gets it's share/cut) but realize the deck is stacked against

you and the rules change constantly to the benefit of the "rule makers" (margin rates, dumping paper, etc.).  When some of you accuse me

of "being scared out of PMs" I say, "Nope, not scared, just getting smarter at spotting whose making money and who isn't as the price continues

on it's downward trend."  Hey I like Zerohedge, but their advice seems to ALWAYS be "buy, buy buy... no matter what happens in the market"...

uh just who are their primary sponsors again?

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:58 | 3578548 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

It's literally INSANE that the actions of a single firm can drop any commodity 7% in minutes. Silver is their  BITCH, and I hope they choke to death on the shiny metal. GSR now 64, even as silver stocks above and below ground are depleting. I buy and sell it for a living, and I work on good margins, but for three of the last 5 weeks they've eaten up most of my margins with their shenanigans. I will patiently add to my stacks, all the way down to $0.00. But beam me the f**k up, this is ridiculous.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:18 | 3578602 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Don't forget that Hong Kong just defaulted on every contract this weekend.  They have a good reason to push prices down going into a 100% paper settlement.

http://silverdoctors.com/hkmex-to-cease-trading-will-close-out-cash-settle-open-contracts-monday/#more-26786

And despite what they claim, I am pretty sure you don;t go all cash settlement unless you have a serious problem beyond low trading volume.  They act as if they plan to stay open.  So they have some other issue, like they let the fox in the hen house.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:30 | 3578654 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Well, they want to cash settle, but then want everyone to still consider it a commodity exchange afterwards, not just a casiono.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:54 | 3579082 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

It seems that if you pay for something, wanting delivery, that doesn't get delivered, you should get all your money back.  Deliver or give my fucking money back.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 23:46 | 3579336 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"got a great 500 sq foot apartment for ya if your interested. Use to sell for...6.5 million US...but for you i'll give a great deal at...2.3."

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:15 | 3578605 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

It just gets better and better.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:11 | 3578596 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Bullshit!  MathMan tells me silver only costs $5/toz to produce.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:18 | 3578821 akak
akak's picture

More precisely, it only costs $5 to dig from the ground.

Oh, and don't forget, the shit is everywhere!

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:53 | 3578936 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

akak said:

Oh, and don't forget, the shit is everywhere!

No kidding. Around here, every morning after an overnight rain, mercury dimes sprout from the buffalo droppings.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:39 | 3578893 kindape
kindape's picture

$5? source?

Its not $23-24 as claimed above. Marginal cash costs are $17-18 but average costs are lower. $5 methinks might be a decade old figure ?? (in any case its also a flow story - even if it did cost $5 to extract, you could only get XX million ounces per year and demand might be XXX)

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:12 | 3578982 Blano
Blano's picture

The "source" above was a former troll, I doubt anyone took it too seriously.

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 02:22 | 3579503 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Ahh since nearly all Silver is a bonus of mining other ores then think on this, as the demand for other metals declines with a fall in economic output then there will be a natural reduction in Silver production. The biggest cost of mining is energy, look at the price of Brent; complete divergence with PM's to the upside, these miners must be hurting. How long before these Silver ores are just parked to one side waiting for an upturn in price.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:15 | 3578813 Alexandre Stavisky
Alexandre Stavisky's picture

Son of the morning star must've irritated Sitting Bull (missing a consonant) badly.  Where's Reno?

Looks like long yellow hair will be sitting on someone's lodgepole to prominent display.

Once more into the breach for "ours is not to reason why".  This wonderfully trained soundmoney cavalry in polish stubborn pride ride against the fiat Panzers.

Outcome?  From Li'l Big Man, it was a good day to die.  How to counter the conjurers, extortionists, conspirators, and racketeers? Hold the line, give no attention.  Mind the parapet.

Or more like Uriah, man to Bathsheba, pushed forward to the tip of the spear, not noticing his vanguard in quiet withdrawal.  It plays to the King's whimsy.  They own all that hold the power and the purse, they think.  We, tiny yeomen, look down and see we hold the boot for a mounting rider. We, cabbage and garlic eaters, hold the shoulder to steady the nobles eliminating their lobster and mignon fare.  We 99% look down to both hands and see we hold excrement of the 1%.  Vanity, pride, and presumption are their heralds, ours? Bruise, crush, calumny.  But forever topsy-turvy.

Accustomed are we to hell of their making.  Bide our time.  Bide our time.  A hard rain is coming.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 23:45 | 3579333 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

There is some kind of genius to your writing. Praying for rain here.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:57 | 3578950 The Phu
The Phu's picture

Thanks to this ZH post, I decided to BTFD and just bought eleven 10-ounces bars with about $1.89/oz prem.  I'm happy.  Thanks Uncle Ben!!!!

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:06 | 3578575 XitSam
XitSam's picture

APMEX (that many here hate) has maples right now for $26.01 USD in quantity 1.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:15 | 3578600 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Provident has them for only $25.15

http://www.providentmetals.com/bullion/silver/foreign-slv/can-slv-maple/canadian-silver-maple-leafs.html

 And they have US Mint AtB 5-ounce bullion for only $2.99/ounce over spot (for the monster box)

http://www.providentmetals.com/2013-atb-white-mountain-5-oz-silver.html

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:33 | 3578668 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Amagi Metals have 1oz in the $23's and whoa.. you can even use bitcoins 

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 11:17 | 3580312 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

I believe my post proves the obvious assumption that most 'stackers' here are really just people who pump their PM store..  if ZH lets tons of 'article writers' who just pump the market of course the commentors are also doing the same

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:28 | 3578648 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

$24.75 at Kitco...

https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist_USD.html

But you is going to have to be patient...

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:44 | 3578700 kindape
kindape's picture

you can buy all the silver you want at Tulving, so pls stop with the 'physical is unavailable' rationalization.

yes premiums have firmed up, but they have been buyers at $2.50 over and sellers (of 2011-2013 Eagles) at $3.50 over for 2 months now. you want physical, in size - can buy at tulving right now..

http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html

(scroll down to silver)

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 08:59 | 3579809 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

Unfortunately, not all of us can afford to buy a monster box at a time.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:27 | 3578644 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

cracks me up how 'silver stackers' talk like traders but will never sell and believe price should be $200 so why are you worried about a few extra % of premium?

if silver spikes to $30 tomorrow, you will be saying, oh no.. not gonna buy at $38 that is crazy, I'll just get it at $32 and wait

YOU NEVER SELL SO STOP TALKING ABOUT VALUE!!!!

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:32 | 3578662 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Well, premium is the big difference between the different products and dealers, esp. right now.

I think if gold hits $10,000 the premium for a gold coin would still be $50, but I could be wrong. 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:04 | 3578964 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

I am not a trader... I am an accumulator.

Dollars don't think much of silver right now and call me a nutter but personally I don't like the long term prospects for dollars.

And as far as premiums go 10 Maples are better than 8.5 Maples.

And it cracks me up when traders like you get upset about the squid HFT front-running you for a couple of measly pennies on dog-shit stocks that intrinsically are probably worth nothing anyway..

:)

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:41 | 3578483 knukles
knukles's picture

Stuff like this... the FinMin says enuf's enuf, the currency cross bid arrives hell bent for somebody's scrotal sack where moments ago it'd just been all offered any time any price, silver gets "liquidated" and somebody somewhere is trying to jump out of his mom's basement window... is why it's dangerous as all hell to be "trading" these markets anymore.

Some dickhead starts driveling, drooling and dripping and one's sex drive is obliterated.

Set one's sights on the true long run what you need is what you're positioned for, and spend the rest of your time making snarky comments on The Hedge, enjoying your mates and thinking fun thoughts.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:44 | 3578491 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Bullish on snarky remarks!

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:44 | 3578492 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

Well said Knukles.

Especially the bit about the basement window ; )

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:54 | 3578734 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Knucks has strong command of the King's English.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:59 | 3578957 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Knucks has strong command of the King's English.

His school teachers must have learned it to him good.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:14 | 3578990 Blano
Blano's picture

Knuks FTW!!!

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:04 | 3578531 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

This paper selling of gold and silver is really starting to become insane.  I can tell you that at this price the top 12 primary silver miners are now losing as a group $7-8 net income per ounce.  Furthermore, this will motivate more physical buying around the world.

I had a very interesting individual from Bangkok  explain what is going on there with traders exchanging $300,000 at a time in the hundreds of gold shops for physical metal.

You can read about in my new post: "YOUR INSIGHTS FROM AROUND THE WORLD"

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:13 | 3578577 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

Well done on getting your new site up and running Steve Rocco!

I prefer to buy physical rather than mining stocks, but the analysis you do on the miners provides a solid fundamental case, and the energy angle is really important.

Given that so many miners dig silver as a by-product to other metal, surely they are not going to rush to sell it into this kind of market, at such stupid below-cost prices.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:33 | 3578665 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

The Top 12 Primary Silver Miners produce approximately 85 million oz of silver a year.  I did not include Fresnillo because they now make more revenue from gold than silver.

These include:

Pan American Silver, Coeur, Hecla, First Majestic, SilverCorp, Endeavour, Fortuna, US Silver, Great Panther, Aurcana, Alexco Resources.

While 70% of silver comes from base metal, and approximately 13% comes from gold mining... with the price of gold now close to break-even for the top gold miners, their much lower silver revenue is going to hurt their bottom line -- especially GoldCorp and etc.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:21 | 3579005 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

Which is why all those mother fucker's need to quit selling their silver for the Comex paper price. In fact, I'd rther see those fuckstix temporaririly shut down operations until they are paid more than their cost of production.

Why fucking produce it for free or less? Are they that stupid?

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 00:14 | 3579372 hack3434
hack3434's picture

Some of them are probably stupid but imo most of them are greedy and incompetent. No other industry squared as much money as the miners did pre crash when everything with a pulse could get cheap financing. 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:11 | 3578595 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Chindit13 says otherwise.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:13 | 3578601 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Don't forget Mathman...

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:52 | 3578719 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

It only costs $5 to dig out of the ground, amirite? 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 23:41 | 3579325 chindit13
chindit13's picture

He should ask his friend if he is talking about the second week of April, or now.  Second week of April, I agree with him.  Now that prices are back to those levels again (or lower for silver), ask him if it's the same.  $300K is not a global event. Not even dozens of $300Ks.  Also, the world is not a single asset.  Interrelationships abound. The China PM narrative should be examined a little more closely.

I'll continue to do my own homework, but remain silent here re PMs. When people want confirmations rather than observations, when admitting error is more painful than losing money, then it is about faith, not finance.  This is straight out of Charles Mackay.  Everybody gets what he wants.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 23:50 | 3579341 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Most people don't have experience with manipulation to this great an extent. 

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 05:59 | 3579591 Room 101
Room 101's picture

You hit the nail on the head: the discussion of PM's on ZH tends to be more akin to a discussion about religion than finance. 

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 14:29 | 3581138 akak
akak's picture

Fuck you idiotic and malicious anti-PM trolls.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:14 | 3578603 Schlomo Bergstein
Schlomo Bergstein's picture

For everybody here saying things like "Once it gets to $1.50 an ounce I'm gonna go all in!"

I just wish you luck. I ordered a shit load when it was 22 an ounce, I paid a 20% premium over spot and I've been waiting weeks for delivery. There's barely any physical as it is. What makes you think there will be any left by the time it reaches your magical buy trigger?

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:56 | 3578942 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Because most selling happens in a frenzy at the bottom, so the lower it goes, the more will become available as the weak hands panic.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 23:35 | 3579313 Arius
Arius's picture

right on ... thats why the Hong Kong Commodity Exchange defaulted this weekend ... because of that panic which brought out so much metal there was nothing to deliver ... LOL 

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 23:39 | 3579318 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You might deduce from my comment, then, that I don't believe we've hit the bottom. And you would be right.

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 01:04 | 3579437 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

"Because most selling happens in a frenzy at the bottom, so the lower it goes, the more will become available as the weak hands panic."

The weak hands don't have any physical. Sure there are some good-weather physical buyers who will unload with curses and frustrations if they drive it through the floor, but most holders will see the charade for what it is: all of the reasons they bought it to begin with will be there in spades. The only real danger to the fundamentals (and we're probably past the point of repair in that regard) is fiscal changes which negate the necessity of money printing. Don;t hold your breath. For the first few years of QE, one could argue that the money stayed locked up in the banking system. Now it;s being spend on food stamps and the like, right into the economy. 

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 06:02 | 3579593 Room 101
Room 101's picture

There is plenty available.  You need to find a better dealer.  And if your intent is to hold for the indefinite future anyway, what's an extra couple weeks wait for delivery?  

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:46 | 3578496 spankthebernank
spankthebernank's picture

You're right Tyler(s), thank you central bankers.  More phyzz for me.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:21 | 3578836 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Bingo - Kyle Bass will be correct with negative nominal rates. This will in turn blow up a whole new generation of mutual funds with low duration goals and DERITATIVES paying a SAFE 3%.

This is going to be a mess.......

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:43 | 3578488 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

GDXJ will be single digits tomorrow. 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:58 | 3578549 drdolittle
drdolittle's picture

I've been adding some gdxj in the last few weeks. you know, cathching that falling knife

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:51 | 3578715 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

it's time to buy pretty quick here (not that it isn't always,  given the reckless policies) but even for traders. I don't see how the COMEX wouldn't completely blow up if gold got much lower, and especially if silver gets below $20. Are you kidding me? So many people are seeing silver enter their price range/affordability, and even buying a contract for the 5k ozt. of Ag becomes more feasible for many. 

The bottom is near. It doesn't matter what some technical trader at the NYMEX thinks about some bearish chart or 'rising wedge' bearishness, or what have you. The one the ground reality continues to assert itself, and the pressure these raids on the metals put on the physical markets matters BIG TIME. 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:54 | 3578733 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

The miners are always more risky, but the per ounce metal price is bottoming out right here. It is taking 'optimally timed' dumps of hundreds of tons of metal and strange things like yen induced margin calls leading to liquidations of of course PMs and nothing else to get the metals to come down. And look how resilient they've been on this way down compared to say AAPL. Gold 1k and silver 18 are where I see absolute bottoms (doubt they even get that low).

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:50 | 3578515 rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

What YEN has to do with Silver, and YEN "plunge" is now just about 50-60 pips.
Can even imaging what's going to be after London opens. Shooot.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:22 | 3578629 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

"forced to sell?" Who sells when there is no market? BS, this is someone using the thin market to send a signal.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:34 | 3578670 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Exactly.  The market only closed worldwide for all of what, an hour?  30 minutes?  Then, on the open, with no volume, they slammed it down $2, to send a message, trigger some stops, see if they can convince anyone to sell to them at that price, and also, its a favor to the HKMex, who will be cash settling on Monday.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:01 | 3578561 GoldForCash
GoldForCash's picture

I'm thinking 17.45 by Asian close. Remember they close and pay everyone today. Then a slow rise.....

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:52 | 3578718 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

If you notice these MASSIVE silver or gold dumps ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS happen on thinly traded markets.  It's Sunday night or late Friday afternoon 15 minutes before the market closes, etc. 

 

It's gotten manipulation written all over it.  Oh where, oh where is Bart and the CFTC?  Well they are under the haystack fast asleep. 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:55 | 3579078 living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

I still have plenty of fiat powder so let the games begin, or should I say continue. I don't need the fiat/gold exchange for at least 20-years. I see this as perhaps the last futile, pathetic effort to destroy the PM's. Time will tell but I am prepared to go all in over the next 6-months.

Make my day...

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:20 | 3578408 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

fuckin Sunday night hijinks by some douchebags....this is asinine

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:20 | 3578409 AUELOX
AUELOX's picture

THEY DID THIS IN LESS THAN TEN MINUTES!

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:22 | 3578415 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I AM STARTING TO SUSPECT THIS MARKET IS NOT ALLOWING NATURAL PRICE DISCOVERY. PERHAPS I SHOULD STAY OUT OF IT?

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:42 | 3578484 knukles
knukles's picture

As per my comment above, Fonz....

 

But not to worry, Lew said that growth would be 3%+ later this year.
I think he meant the deficit, but I'm not sure...

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:48 | 3578504 reload
reload's picture

You said very recently that a lot of us were going to be driven crazy by weird movements / disconnects and pressures jumping at random from one market to the next.

And just to prove you right we kick off like this.

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:51 | 3578516 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

reload I also think we should all be rooting for the price to go to zero.

To me this is a non event. I don't buy from places online. Chindit13 may be right that there is plenty of PM's available. I know I called my place on Friday and they had less than 20 ASE's in stock. They wanted $28.50. My guess is tomorrow either they have none, or that have a few and still want $28.50.

If I owned SLV on the other hand......

The miners are the wild card. Which ones have the cash on hand to halt production and stay afloat for a while? I guess we will find out.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:06 | 3578570 reload
reload's picture

I agree, re the price of paper metal. - but it is again a tell on the leverage / cross collateralisation embedded in 'markets' which are supposed to function as efficient price discovry mechanisms for real goods and services.

Imagine being the CFO of a small / mid cap miner right now.....nightmare. Ditto for a purchasing manager trying to by metal stock for a manufacturing process.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:00 | 3578746 noless
noless's picture

I work in metal fabrication, I'm doing the temp week to month shuffle right now, I've been in near 8-10 shops/construction sites in the past 6 months, every single one is going through bullshit to source materials, a lot of times just calling other shops near by to see if they have anything on hand to make up for a shortfall, or delay the project and either fuck over or over pay for labor/materials. it isn't uncommon to see trucks go in with like, a single half sheet of aluminum and a couple i beams, it's ridiculous.

The market I'm in is doing ok in comparison to other places.

So yeah, this doesn't exactly instill any confidence. Or i might just be a persecuted social recluse that gets moved around from shithole to shithole, who knows.

But yeah, at this point i see silver spot getting murdered.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:22 | 3578628 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Even the ones with cash are in serious trouble, extremely risky (and imo a terrible idea) to buy the miners right now.

Wait'll these prices are reflected in their q financials.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:36 | 3578676 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Thanks, James "sell low, buy high" Cole.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:48 | 3578709 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Doubt many people right now are thinking sell at $34 & $1750 were particularly low.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:59 | 3578727 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

James this is as far as I will take your troll bait tonight.

If you really believe you are looking out for your fellow man, then why aren't you on seeking alpha right now pleading with the stock bulls to lock in their gains at these levels instead of wasting your time on here telling everyone that they should have sold 20%+ higher? What is your point, other than to just be a gnat?

Go.....Run....Gallop as fast as you can to some other site where the equity guys are basking in their glory so you can actually say "I TOLD YOU SO" later on rather than just be an annoying rearview window ballbreaker.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:11 | 3578796 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

If you already hold silver right now thats a different thing and the market longer term has a lot going for it so it's not like end of the world or something.

But people are talking about adding to their positions and you mentioned buying miners, I'm thinking that's a bad idea.

Im not doing a 'told you so' - people keep saying I'm lying etc., pointing out that this market is highly predictable and I haven't been lying.

The sell-side guys are the liars.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 20:29 | 3578845 akak
akak's picture

JamesCole, your anti-PM trolling here is as transparent as the Obama administration is not.  So please fuck off with your dishonest and disingenuous "voice of reason" Nadleresque bullshit already --- it is as ineffective here as it is laughable.

PS: Curious that being "the voice of reason" was the signature of the rabid and virulently anti-gold troll RStones199 in the Kitco forum several years ago with whom I did heated battle on numerous occasions, as well as the wildly persistent troll Duneyman/Roger from the SilverSeek forum, whose anti-silver trolling effectively destroyed that forum.

The more things change ....

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:14 | 3578991 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

He's been right about PMs and he's trolling? Sounds to me like you're the one trolling for the silver sellers. The guy said price going lower, it went lower, he says it's probably going lower still, and you call him a troll. That's what is truly laughable. And I see you're still stuck on the word "disingenuous" and still don't know what it means.

Geezus, akak, admit he was right and you were wrong and let it go.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:28 | 3579012 akak
akak's picture

WonderDawg, no surprise that you are sticking up for this dishonest bastard James Cole, given your own sordid anti-precious metals posting history here.

And for the record, yes, I know EXACTLY what the word "disingenuous" means, and I chose to use it as frequently as I do precisely because it is such a ubiquitous attribute of those who continually and, let's be honest, disingenuously attempt to badmouth and talk down the precious metals, and their owners.

Aside from that, my confrontations of this lying bastard James Cole have NOTHING to do with any price predictions of his, or yours, but are based on his repeated and consistent pattern of misrepresenting and outright falsifying facts and significant aspects of the gold market, such as his Nadleresque and WGC-ish distortions of (the bulk of) worldwide gold jewelry demand as NOT being the actual investment demand that it is, but being merely a passing fancy for shiny baubles for the ladies.

Oh, and fuck you once again, you equally dishonest and arrogant sack of shit.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:28 | 3579018 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

LMAO You're funny. You were pimping silver in the high 30's and 40's and you don't see the irony here? Grow up, dude. When you're wrong, you're wrong. Quit blaming your shortcomings on others. He was right (and so was I) and you were the one giving bad advice. You can call me whatever names you want, doesn't change the facts. If you want, I'll tell you when to buy silver. I'll go ahead and give you a hint. Not yet.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:40 | 3579029 akak
akak's picture

And here is the proof of your dishonesty.

I have NEVER "pimped" silver, not made ANY statement in his forum, at ANY time, advocating the immediate investment in, or the purchase of, anything.  I challenge you to find any post of mine to that effect --- go ahead, search my entire posting record, pour over it for days; you won't find any such statement on my part.

That you continue to make that claim only highlights what a lying and deceitful person you truly are.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:56 | 3579093 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Semantics, akak. Play your games. You were wrong.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:03 | 3579117 akak
akak's picture

Your egregious dishonesty is more than just "semantics", WonderDawg --- it is a reflection of your own personal character and integrity (or more specifically, the lack thereof).

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:11 | 3579142 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Yes, yes, that's it, I'm lacking personal character and integrity. I knew it was something LOL

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:13 | 3579150 akak
akak's picture

Now you're heading somewhere positive!

That's it, let it all out --- they say that confession is good for the soul.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:16 | 3579156 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Whew! Yes! And I'm ergeriously, wait, ergrogonous, no it was, something about dishonesty, damn fi dollah words. But whatever, I feel much better now :-)

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:36 | 3579035 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

So that's it? It's over?

Wonderdawg I don't think it is necessarily going to happen, but if tomorrow there was some major panic and credit froze and markets went illiquid followed by a PM delivery failure and metals went parabolic, except they were nowhere to be found...who would be right and who would be wrong?

The reason that I buy on the way down, is not because I am just some reflexive monkey with a "beat me hard" t shirt on. It's because the day the bottom is hit and you magically time it, there may be none out there to buy.

Maybe I am paranoid, maybe you are right. But there is a guy in Venezuela right now who really needs to wipe his ass, and his buddy is telling him how cheap toilet paper is, but his buddy still can't find any.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:53 | 3579077 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

No, Fonz, I'm not saying it's over, I'm saying I was right from the time after the spike to $49 and reversal, that silver would go lower before it went higher from that time forward, and to the present I've been right, as has James Cole, and akak has been wrong. He called Cole a troll and I pointed out that the guy made the right call. I said this weekend "more down before up" and it looks like that was also the correct call. I have no problem with PM bulls, I'm one in the long term, but fuck, I'd rather buy it at $20 than $40, as should all the other long term stackers. Akak should be rejoicing at the opportunity to buy lower, but he'd rather get into a verbal slap fight than look at the positive side of this. That's what irritates me. His ego won't let him be happy and he lashes out at Cole or me because were correctly predicted the trajectory. Both gold and silver are still well above my average cost, and my expectations are that there will be plenty of physical available when I decide to add. If I'm wrong I'll pay the consequences, and I accept that.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:00 | 3579100 akak
akak's picture

WonderDawg, I have to wonder myself, have you been taking "evade and divert" lessons from James Cole?

Again, you blatant liar, my issue with James has NOTHING to do with any price predictions, or with any price movements whatsoever --- it is about his grossly misleading, and at times patently false, misrepresentations of the world gold market, and more particularly the investment and monetary attributes thereof.  For God's sake, stop with your disingenuous mischaracterizations of what I am saying here --- it is all abundantly clear, at least to those with the intellectual and moral integrity to hear it.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:05 | 3579123 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Keep tilting at windmills. The people who've been reading your posts for the last few years know exactly what I'm talking about.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:08 | 3579136 akak
akak's picture

Yes, I am sure that they do know exactly where both you and I are coming from --- and the points from which you and I are coming are diametrically opposed.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:01 | 3579108 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

"Wonderdawg I don't think it is necessarily going to happen, but if tomorrow there was some major panic and credit froze and markets went illiquid followed by a PM delivery failure and metals went parabolic, except they were nowhere to be found...who would be right and who would be wrong?"

Sure it's possible, but it's an outside possibility. Probabilities are a good guide and on that front PMs are not a good buy atm.

One thing that really needs to be understood is there is not a physical shortage, flat out.

That said, down the road there are many possible industrial applications which could spike silver demand. I would also be surprised to see it drop much below 18$ and considering where it was 10 yrs ago that's still very good performance, just not the kind of performance the sell side guys are talking about.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:05 | 3579122 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"That said, down the road there are many possible industrial applications which could spike silver demand."

Or the dollar and the bond market could just collapse under the weight of the debt. But let's just leave that idea completely out of the realm of possibility....I mean it's not like that is beginning to happen in Japan at the moment.....

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:11 | 3579141 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

"Or the dollar and the bond market could just collapse under the weight of the debt. But let's just leave that idea completely out of the realm of possibility...."

That would be a negative for silver as silver is an industrial metal...

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:18 | 3579154 akak
akak's picture

Silver is also a monetary metal, despite all of your and the (Anti-)Silver Institute's propaganda to the contrary.

The clear anti-PM bias and tone of your every post in this forum marks you for the troll that you are.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:26 | 3579179 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

tell the states with legislation in the works to use gold and silver as money that it is an industrial metal.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 22:51 | 3579245 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

There are lots of places where both are already classified monetary and untaxed - not to be confused with the demand for silver as an industrial metal.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:23 | 3578420 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

The silver move was faster than that, I think.

50 cents in one minute, 10 cents in the next minute $1.50 in the next minute is what I'm seeing.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:30 | 3578444 IdeasRbulletproof
IdeasRbulletproof's picture

UN FKN REAL!!!

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:30 | 3578446 Midas
Midas's picture

B. Chilton is going to get this straightened out once he is done with Bitcoin.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:40 | 3578481 franzpick
franzpick's picture

July from 22.23 to 20.22 in 5 minutes:  click 'interactive', then 1 minute chart:

http://www.investing.com/commodities/silver

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:44 | 3578490 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Agred Bastiat.....as I said...asinine....unbe-fuckin-lievable

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:36 | 3578411 Boston
Boston's picture

YES!!!!!!!!!!

 

Order filled.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:38 | 3578475 Being Free
Being Free's picture

+ a few oz for me too!  I really don't care how low they take the "fools silver" price (though it is entertaining to watch) I'm more than happy to add some more of the real thing  to my stacks.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:43 | 3578695 Room 101
Room 101's picture

I'm definitely a critic of PM's and the PM shills.  But difficult times do sometimes call upon us to implement difficult measures.  

Order filled as well.  

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:21 | 3578412 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

...and HKMEX to cease trading after just 2 years today. Gotta get the price down for the settlements in fiat.

 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:29 | 3578441 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

The HKMEX has closed due to lack of trading activity. They couldn't attract customers.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:37 | 3578467 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

HKMEX open interest only 200 contracts.

Won't make too much of a splash.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:53 | 3578522 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

200 contracts is 200,000 ounces which equals 6 tons of Gold.  Why are they settling in paper is there is so much Gold available?  

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:09 | 3578588 noless
noless's picture

Just bullshitting here, but because they couldn't make a profit after the huge down swing? If they're settling in cash and have any physical on hand I'm guessing they're betting on divergence, either that or they sold in too heavily out of their inventory and can't even buy back into their position through borrowing? Maybe pledged what they had as collateral and lost it? Underestimated the psychology of their market? A lot of possibilities.

I don't know, but im looking forward to comex inventories, us mint sales, and the resolution to the hk settlement.

Gonna check out a couple of the lcs's probably to shoot the shit next week.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:20 | 3578623 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

I wish you were right Tucson - but from a quick google it looks to me like their gold contract size is only 32 ounces

http://hkmerc.com/en/Products/HKG.html#tab1

I agree they should offer to settle with physical - and you would think they could find 200 kilos - but it's not going to move the price

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 23:57 | 3579350 Arius
Arius's picture

are you saying the Rothchilds (beyond HKCMX) could not had customers???

well, there is always a first ... but i dont think this one could fly.  either way, we will find out soon enough, there is so much going on and i for one do not believe for a moment the lack of customers argument - not in this kind of market at least...

incidentally this happens right after ABN AMRO defaulted and offered to settle in cash on all pm deposits (not future contracts - but deposits the customers were paying storage fees) ...

as i said will find out soon enough ...

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 07:58 | 3579691 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

They are probably settling everything they have on deposit as well.  If you had any paper receipt, you probably got jacked.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:21 | 3578413 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Support at $19.  That is when I cover.  

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:08 | 3578582 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Charts are increasingly irrelevant. They're just going to do whatever they want, charts and fundamentals be damned. Even if physiical seems to start drying up, it won't matter: Whatever you think will happen, based on logic, won't. And whatever 'can't' happen will. It's a new day, they're playing for all the marbles now, and are deadly serious about keeping the coke flowing and the whores spreading.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:21 | 3578414 indianajohns04
indianajohns04's picture

Uhh.....I don't think it got "sent right back up". 

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:22 | 3578416 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Better than channel bound.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:22 | 3578417 gimli
gimli's picture

Earth calling Bart .... Earth calling Bart .... get outta bed, comb your hair ..... Jaime decided to drive tonight

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:32 | 3578454 IdeasRbulletproof
IdeasRbulletproof's picture

Bart can't hear you. Too busy investigating bitcoin right now...

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:37 | 3578469 gimli
gimli's picture

Oh sorry, you're right --- that'll probably take about 3 years or so.

I think Jaime had Jon Corzine over for brunch and was asking for pointers.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:22 | 3578418 electricgorilla
electricgorilla's picture

I'm sorry. If you watch this plunge in Silver today and the plunge we had in Gold a few weeks ago...how can you not be a little nervous holding either paper or bullion metals. The dollar is strong as an Ox right now up 70 basis points.

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 18:25 | 3578426 SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

Strong like Ox, or wacked out on PCP and in a terminal rampage?

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 19:44 | 3578698 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

A plunge in price... If that makes you want to sell then you are either on margin (not a great idea with precious metals) or not made for this world.

As long as there is demand for Tomahawk missiles there is demand for silver.

Every dollar spent on silver is a dollar not deposited with a TBTF bank.  How do you think they feel about that? (pretending for a second they cared about their reserve ratio)

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