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19 Out Of 19
The Dow completes its 19th week in a row with a green close on a Tuesday - there are no superlatives left. As a gentle reminder, since February 1st, the Dow has gained 9.85%; absent Tuesdays it is up a mere 0.5%. Despite equity strength, bonds rallied, VIX rallied, the USD ranged violently (Fed's Bullard and Dudley) to end unchanged, and commodities drifted lower on another dismally low volume day. Correlations between stocks and the rest of risk-assets have completely broken down today.
19-in-a-row...
It's been a hell of a six months on Tuesdays...
Treasuries did not buy into the rotation...again...
VIX futures roll tomorrow and likely had some effect (and we saw notable volume in higher up calls - though more like rolls than outrights) but VIX remains absolutely agnostic of the last 40 SPX points...
FX markets ended the day oddly unchanged - despite some very notable swings on the back of Fed's Bullard and Dudley's comments...
Commodities in general drifted lower today...
Stocks (once again) were in a world of their own for much of the post-EU close... cross-asset-class correlations completely disappeared this afternoon as stocks wee notably bid beyond every other risk asset
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: A Gentle reminder... HY has stopped its run...
and locally... SPY is 6 sigma rich to HYG (arb delta is around 3xHYG vs 1xSPY)
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It's random baby, I swear. --TBTF
I'm not sure I want to see that day where a Tuesday fails to close up - it may be ugly.
No worries though because when everybody believes we can only go up, then we can only go up. I mean when was the last time everybody believing the same thing was wrong?
For those of us who are new here, what happens on Tuesday? Does the Fed do something different on Tuesday than on other days of the week? Sorry, newbie question.
It's $1 Taco Tuesdays. Everybody has a few extra bucks to throw into the black hole.
Really, I don't know either. Just shows how sane these markets are.
it's TIMMAY TUESDAY!
timAAYYYYYYYYYY
yes - it is POMO day when the fed buys assets (treasurys and mortgage backed bonds) from the large banks (citi, bac, gs, ms, wf) for whatever price the large banks want. the large banks then take the newly printed cash and pump stocks with it.
Ponzinomics, imported-president-and-foreigner-in-charge-of-the-Fed style.
A 3X leveraged Tuesday ETF will be released by JP Morgan any day now.
I'd gladly pay you Tuesday for a recovery today...
Zero you beat me to it. Tip of the hat.
You snooze you lose Rumpelstiltskin... damn but we're getting old... ish.
;)
Tuesday is synonymous with various Gods of War, and the day of war, day of combat, Mars, etc etc and all that jazz.
See http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuesday
Could it be symbolic? Methinks maybe
Ben Bernanke and the QE Bunch remind me of a young horny male teenager pleading to the girl, "I swear I will take it out of your mouth before I cum." Just like the point of no return, QE ain't never gonna quit.
What broke around the 14th of May?
Tepper's balls broke.
Don't get in front of this train unless you can stay short thru 2015 (sarcasm)
It's so sinister it's amazing. It's been BTFD forever. You can see the setup coming for a correction. Then everyone comes out screaming BTFD. The retail monkeys take the bait and that's when the PD's get their final hand off. Then they have the table set and it's dinner time.
Shit - it's not even BTFD - there's no dip. More like "buy into the ramp."
This is like watching the house win 100 hands in a row - such complete bs.
BTFT
STFT (Short The Fucking Top)
Dont short shit....but something people should consider is to buy way OTM puts for all the indices like SPY, QQQ, DIA...etc...I would get those with strikes 30% below the current price...and buy for Sept 2013 to early 2014. These options are costing like 20 cents each or so...and some even less...load up on those if you have cheap commissions for way OTM options. Best way to hedge against any black swan events...that could decimate the markets in a heartbeat.
Yup. For me the only real question is how far out to be worth it. mid 2014 or end 2014 (jan 2015) I'm thinking would make it worth it. Otherwise no matter the cheapness the estimated reward is smaller than the cost. In that case why bother. Just buy beer and be sure of your tangible value in hand.
As it is I think SPY could easily hit 175 or 180 on the way to the middle of this year so I'm not sure if it's rapid enough to justify SPY calls but I am sure if I want more SPY puts I'd want to let the price rise some more so the bids are lower on those Puts. Otherwise it just seems not worth it to play. Maybe when SPY hits 172 or so the price vs dates on those puts will look more attractive. It's nonsensical s&p isn't smashing down right now, it's about 400 points higher than it has any right to be but that's how much printed money + HFT's can get the market up. It's cialis for markets.
i've been playing spx and djx since about 1998 - and i did well until 2 days before bennie announced qe1 and i got hammered. and i learned my lesson. i'm really afraid this is going to go on forever, or a really long time. nobody seems to see anything wrong with up 16% in 5 months - 34% in one year.
i think we will hit dow 20,000 this year. shorts and PM will continue to be crushed. i've been watching puts/calls on VIX for 4 months now - and every position that i thought i wanted to enter got crushed. same with puts/calls on djx. as cheap as the long out of the money into the future looks - i don't think it is.
greed is bitch - pigs get slaughtered. at this point - i really think jamie and lloyd are looking at this as though it will never end, and they think that they own when it will end.
think about 2008. mozilla checked out with plenty of chips. stanley o'neil checked out. a couple of guys checked out with chips. ace greenberg left and some other left with (relatively) nothing. same game is on - and these guys think they have enough control - but they CAN NOT check out. game on for a long time.
it stands for Buy the Fucking Tuesday
I think you have a new MEME there! "Buy into the ramp" Made me LOL! Buying on the dip (retail investors) requires actual dips.
except you still don't sit at the table. So it goes on and on until you sit down.
And cue the gold trolls with "You can't fight the FED" mantra as well.
To all the "there is no inflation" idiots and dolts, I saw a 24 pack of Coors Light in the store yesterday for $53 bucks in BC, Canada. Gas is $5.40 a gallon here too. Yep, nice and "stable cost structure" here. Well over 10% inflation rate and savers getting killed with ZIRP.
Maybe BC is just expensive. Ontario: paid $35 for a 28 pack of Coors Light
feel bad for you guys in canada. you don't have the reserve currency. we don't have inflation in the united f... states. because we RULE. things here just keep getting cheaper, because we deserve a better life. and a better life means more. and besides - here in the states, 28 pack of beer - do you have a drinking problem or something? i mean really - get a job dude. then you wouldn't have time to drink so much, and you would have the money to pay anyway. ever think about AA or a church support group?
100% sarcasm if you can't see how this is lots of fun.
wait, what's a /sarc ?
It is a tantric market that can just stay on a complete high forever!
No
It's so sinister it's not.
Negate a negative you get a positive. simple stuff
19 Out Of 19.... Till next Tuesday when it becomes 20!
then the next Tuesday the rally turns 21 and goes on a bender and winds up dead in a ditch.
One can dream.
http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7322/8733616823_44f2e0f8d9.jpg
any different than quarter after quarter all the big us investment banks reporting ZERO trading loss days? really? zero? positive everyday?
tyler - going back over history - what is the possibility of that - say in the 70's, 80's, 90', 00's?
I hope on this most holiest of days, Pump Tuesday, we have all taken a moment to thank St Ben of Bernanke for the gifts he has bestowed upon us.
Shalom
Dont worry, just pay homage at your nearby local synagogue and bring gifts of physical silver and gold. And no tungsten please.
Coincidence, probably, because I was taught long ago that there are no such things as conspiracies.
Magic bullets exist, too.
So the statistical probability of this being a random unorchestrated event occuring in a free market is approaching zero, or -1.
So what stocks are bought on Tuesdays?
Catipaillar, Facefuck, all of them dammit...
just keep buyin...
Geez, not the freakin' miners. Tuesdays r whipping days. And if anyone bothered to check it would be down ugly something like 243 out of 243 Tuesdays; 19 out of 19 is .... cute?
Breaking news....kid on the floor of the NYSE, wearing a hockey helmet, was accidentally leaning on the SPY buy button all day. Entire day's trading now being cancelled. Unsure how this affects the 19 for 19 up Tuesday record. Duncan Neiderauer to make a statement about stable, not retarded markets.
More as the story develops...
tbh tuesday is pomo day. thats just how it is. i hate so say it BUT you must be a fool to not take advantage of this.
buy on monday at lows, sell tuesday with over a 1-2% gain. without doing nothing and taking 0 risk. the game is rigged. and you can use it. i really hate this game but why turn down free money. at least as long as this farce lasts. bernanke is out of control. LOL
o.o
Well, someday they will likely use this "no risk" window to pull the fucking floor right out from under you.
They're just waiting for a few more dancers to make it all worthwhile.
Sure things are sure, right up until they aren't.
Yeah JJ McApe....one Tuesday they will turn you into JJ McRape
i work for a bank and i have a 90 day holding period - so i just watch this and cry, because it is SOOO simple.
on the other hand - i'm still employed, so i guess that is good, but i sort of really wish i was 5 years into sitting in my mcmansion not paying any mortgage, or the credit car bills for the fat couch i'm sitting on while the car payments aren't being made on the beamer in the front while my student loan collection agency is threatening to do whatever they can think of - the odd weekends i fly to vegas (on my new card, the old one being forgiven), i rent the place out for porno shoots and occasionally come back 'early' to check out the chicks, who think i've got wads (of money) seeing all the acctrourements and some of them get 'smart' - meanwhile, everybody is paying me cash.
that obama is a genius. i would be loving this guy - i'll vote for constitutional change for his 3rd term. a friend is telling me how to juice the system and start getting benefits.
i'll get down arrows - because people think i'm kidding.
That do you have to grumble? You buy anything and you make money. Where is the problem?
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
No relationship between the American debt and the fact that markets go up and that I make money.
Or so they'd have you believe.
"No relationship between the American debt"
What is Bernanke buying? Skittle-shitting unicorns?
Then why can't I just print as many of my own dollars as I want...WHERE IS THE PROBLEM? Why go to all the bother of having markets? JUST GIVE EVERYONE AS MUCH MONEY AS THEY WANT, FOREVER. Problem solved, right?
Suggestion. I think you should check how many out of the last 200 days, futures are pushed down between 16:00 and 16:15 and starting up the next day.... in "positive territory"...You will find a pattern
lmao. 19/19 or P=1/(2^19). Only get those results with a loaded coin, or a Fed board member(s) working for wall st.
1/(2^19) = 1/(524288)
/ 52 (weeks per year) -> ~ 1 in 10 000 years
Guess we got lucky? Oh hang on, it could've happened on one of the other days of the week.
1 in 2 000 years? (Unless we want to start getting technical ... )
the way Tuesdays are going, we may not have many more green ones.
note the rounded bottom pattern, with the crack in the middle
I believe this pattern is known as "The Flaming Arse".
And I read economists who dispel the possiblity of this gang manipulating markets. lol!!
please someone ....go reread Barron (that is what I remember ...the information was all out there for everyone to see at the time but no one appreciated the possibility that the modern day 'savings' of money market funds just might seize up under pressure from all this sub-prime securitization build-up .... choose your own financial media publication .....except Bloomberg or Yahoo which are borderline useless....) from Summer 2007 on (start even earlier as the 'clouds' were even then forming .... Henry Cisneros resigns as Director of Countrywide so as 'not to be a distraction' ....). Scan/speedread Barrons or WSJ ...... the 'data/anecdotal reporting' flow was getting more attention-getting by the month ..... When did high yield materially 'crack' back in 2007? Was it that Goldamn CFO talking about how they were having to 'de-risk' their balance sheet ...(unpoken ... their auditors essentially saying ..... you may be crazy but don't ask us to sign off on that level of shadow banking securitization... ... you better start moving it off before we get too close to audit-end). And then what 'news flow' kept HY from recoupling to equites and continue to diverge in late 2007 into early 2008? Which led to the 'pay-back' to Bear Stearns pimping everyone else at the prior time of the Long Term Captial Management blow-up.
.... and who pulled a cool $500 million from money markets one fine early October day in 2008 that scared the bejeezus out of Paulson and, who was it that let slip, Congressman Kranjorski ...(<? - obviously cannot recall correct name) .... who did he hear that from ....?
Sick, shameless scams like this are yet ANOTHER reason why 9/11 was funny...
Oh, and hey--THAT was on a Tuesday, too! :-)
they stooped lower than low, the fuckers are outright buying stocks with freshly printed fucking money.
"if all we have is central bank policy, we're in a world of trouble" Kyle Bass
im telling u guys, its gotten to the point where they will make it so that each tuesday ends up green.
if they are anticipating bad news that day, they will pump it up a so hard, say a few hundered points from the open, so when the bad news hits, even if the market drops 110 pts or so from that bad news, it will still be green.
i want blood on wall st already, i want the smiles wiped off the faces of every cnbc and bloomberg shithead, i want bernanke, dudley, bullard, evans, all of these fucking fed fucks in prison now, and dimon, blankfein, and all other bankers in jail.
also, put david tepper and steven cohen in jail now, 2 of the biggest sleezeball hedgefund mangers
Going for 57 in a row to break the greatest hitting streak in the world.
Neunzehn dienstag.
Ist das gut?
The Infinite Tuesday Spike=TITS
your welcome jpmorgan,,,now go make your derivative, and rot in helll forever. RIP=Ramp in Pigshit
One more......Fuck You Bernanke=CNBC
One of these daze this last sqeeze leg that started mid april is going to get vaporized very quickly, looks like a an elephant balancing on a big tall skinny ladder... Only one way that can end, look out B-lowus.