This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Goldman Confirms 'Recovery' Hopes Have Gone As 'Slowdown' Deepens
With US Macro no longer the clean dirty shirt, the 'hope' of a recovery from the Spring swoon has faded rather quickly according to Goldman's latest Global Leading Indicator (though obviously not David Kostin). The modest April pick up - driven mainly by sentiment indicators as opposed to hard data - has faded as the reality of economic deterioration was more pronounced as both the Philadelphia Fed headline and the New Orders less Inventories components (the advanced proxies for Goldman's Global PMI aggregate) fell to the lowest level in more than six months. The S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index also made new lows and fell for the third month in a row. The CAD and AUD TWI Aggregates weakened, driven primarily by a weaker AUD, and US Initial Claims also worsened from last month. But apart from that... as Goldman notes, the decline in momentum was a bit more substantial in May than many had expected.
Goldman's Leading Indicator momentum (blue) suggests global industrial production's short-term pick up will fade rapidly...
as the Swirlogram indicates a deepening slowdown...
Of course, none of this matters, as the bank's 1750 PT for year-end S&P 500 seems to believe that H2 will be all good...
Charts: Goldman Sachs
»
- 15286 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Goldman and all other Inv banks make moar $$ with QE than they ever could otherwise....of course they will argue for maintaining the immorality....
@Clowns on Acid
This is the ultimate goldilocks scenario for the banksters. Poor economic data ensures QE forever.*
* Forever = Until the Economic system collapses just like Soviet Russia in the early '90's.
what happened to their prediction of 2.5% growth for the US economy?
@walkure
Easy. "Our models suggested higher growth this quarter, but these gains have been deferred so next year when we anticipate even more growth."
Don't shed any ink for us Mr. Squid...
These guys are psychotic. Did they not, earlier today, put out targets for year end and 2015 for the S&P at 1750 and 2100, respectively? What a bunch of transparent maroons.
The prediction is essentially the same; they just move the decimal point one place to the left. QE = Quick & Easy!
It's like baking with the Muppet chef from Sweden.
Bad weather
Their prediction of 2.5% GDP growth went the same way of their prediciton of $200 oil.
my only regret is that I am not in a position to rape and pillage... lucky bastards!
"the decline in momentum was a bit more substantial in May than many had expected."
Looks more to me like the April data point is an outlier, or outliar as the case may be. It'd be interesting to see what components to the index inflated that datapoint so far off the curve.
Of course bad news => more QE => higher S&P => good news.
Maria Bartiromo should really discuss GS LI swirlograms and PMI aggregates on CNBC. It would make her sexier.
i would prefer a lack of discussion from her.
"I reject your reality and substitute my own." - Goldman's David Kostin
Looks like another huge tornado forming on that swirl chart!
Yep and rest assured the 99% will be the ones losing everything!
Goldman is going to have to create a panic dip in the market for anyone to notice this lost hope--and thus cue MOAR QE. Short this BS Tuesday--there are disturbances across all 12 of my trading screens.
Goldie miners are having a boner day on heavy volume.
Sure you're not fighting a flood of money finally re-entering the market?
Miners are all up on the Canadian exchange but down on the US exchange.
WTF???? is going on? Money leaving US exchanges? Money leaving US banks? Massive bank bail-ins around the corner in the US? Say it ain't so!
Just checked out the miners on Kitco's chart. You sir, are spot on. WTF is going on? How/why are mining companies up 3% to 16% on the toronto exchange, but the same companies are down 1% to 5% on US exchanges?
Anyone?
Has already reversed, just before the close.
Nevermind. May 20th was "Victoria Day" in Canada, and the TSX was closed. So today is just catchup for the Monday they missed.
o how good its going to feel when this comes crashing down.
it maybe suffering until then, but when it happens, it will feel just as good as your 1st sexual encounter ( or close to)
@thismarketisrigged
Nothing could top a sinkhole that swallowed DC and Manhatten.
1750!!! GS said 1750, and we had better get there, as i am super LONG this gravity defying equity market, and i am QUICK, super quick!! i WILL FRONT RUN GS's ALGO's any day of the week!!
1750!
Stop trading.
Take your money and buy farmland. Pay a farmer to farm it. The crops are your dividend.
And this will remain so in 10 years when anyone with actual calories to sell will become the dominant force in his community.
Better to wait for the big crash in the price of farmland.
Not sure how there would be some 'crash.' First of all, people always need food, and there are emerging. middle class markets of people who actually have foregone consumption and saved and who want to eat better.
Secondly, with the currency that has already been printed, stagflation is coming (actually already here masked by statisticians' sleight of hand). Farm land may be a bit rich right now but I don't see how it has some big crash. Depends, I guess, though, on whether it becomes securitized and sold like MBSs
Every attempt I have seen to IPO a company in the business of selling shares in farmland and production has gotten to the brink of release and been cancelled.
As for price, it depends on your worldview. You'd be trading paper for an ongoing calorie stream. How do you think Russia and Saudi Arabia feel when they ship joules out in return for paper -- or yellow metal?
We may see a time when a wheelbarrow full of $100 bills or EBT cards won't buy a loaf of bread. The problem with buying farms, oil wells, gold mines, etc. is that you blindly assume governments will honor contracts and respect private property rights when millions of voters are starving to death. Ask the people who owned farmland in Zimbabwe how that's working out.
If you can't hide your assets, you don't really own them.
That is indeed a factor.
But a hidden asset has no value. If contract law and enforcement breaks down, then medium of exchange has broken down.
Calories have value. Joules have value. Wars were fought over possession of a water powered grain mill. Joules and calories have value.
Nothing else does.
So think of places to hide food and fuel, and don't tell anyone you have them. Still, the neighbors might suspect something if your kids are laughing and running around while theirs just sit and stare into space.
No recovery = Most people get poorer.
Most people getting poorer = A few getting much richer.
A few getting much richer = All time highs every day on DOW/SP500
Conclusion: BANANA FUCKING REPUBLIC!
More and more Fed QE. Quiick! Double and triple QE monthly amounts!
QE until the Fed crashes the US dollar!
Is this the same Goldman Sachs who just predict that S&P will go up to 1750? Wow. So, as economic slowdown deepens, the stock moves higher. What a bizarro world indeed.
It is how Satanism works. You do everything backwards to confuse and hide.
Why would a collapsing economy have anything to do with stock prices? Dude . . .
Yeah Baby, all news is good for stocks.
The higher the market goes, the more future taxpayer earnings are transfered to today's wealth holders in the guise of helping the recovery. An infinitesimal amount may or may not be trickling down to the middle class while the rich get obscenely richer. I don't see how this isn't criminal and against every principal the country was founded on. What will it take to end this B.S.?
It's a simulacrum of prosperity -- a mirage market! And now, even Goldman recognizes it!
In business "looking good" is a Business Plan.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article30620.htm