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Goldman Goes Uberhyper-Bullish, Hikes S&P500 Target To 1750 By Year End, Sees 2100 By 2015
"Our positive 2013 outlook for S&P 500 has played out much faster than we expected." That is how the latest equity update from Goldman Sachs, which until today had an S&P target of 1625 for the year end S&P, begins. And, logically, the only option for Goldman is to hike its outlook even more, because not even the Squid apparently could anticipate how quickly the policy it forced down the throats of central banks around the world, levitated markets to surpass its old price targets. The result is David Kostin (who until December had foreseen 1250 on the S&P for the end of 2012) and company were forced to goalseek even higher targets based on tried and true excel model fudging exercises, and such "value" creation as multiple expansion and dividend payments.
To wit: "Our earnings estimates remain unchanged but we raise our dividend estimates and index return forecasts for 2013 through 2015. We expect S&P 500 will rise by 5% to 1750 by year-end 2013, advance by 9% to 1900 in 2014, and climb by 10% to 2100 in 2015. Our 2013 return implies a year-end P/E of 15.0x, a one multiple point premium to our fair-value estimate. We forecast dividends will rise by 30% during next two years. Dividend yield is likely to stay around 2%, in line with the 20-year average." For the record, Goldman had previously seen 1,900 in 2015. And now it sees another 200 points of value due to the magic of multiple expansion. That anyone can even pretend to forecast what happens three years into the future at a time when the central banks are injecting $160 billion (and soon $200 billion), and most likely will have to slowdown and halt such liquidity injection resulting in untold stock market carnage, is so beyond commentary we will leave it hanging for the ridiculous statement it is.
As for 2013, at least Goldman leave out any mention of 2013 consensys earnings... for good reason:
So in lieu of early Tuesday humor, here is how Goldman achieves its "target forecasts." All we can conclude from this is that neither Tepper nor Goldman are anywhere near done selling to muppets.
But don't for a second think any of this is earnings driven. As we showed last night, it isn't. It is all based on prayer that Bernanke and his central planning magicians can keep on expanding the increasingly meaningless PE multiple, which incidentally would collapse if and when rate were to go back to historical levels now that corporate debt is at unseen before levels.
We would spend a few more second reading this drivel, but we have better things to do. Anyone fascinated by wasting time with paperweight is urged to do so on their own.
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The top has been called.
FORWARD BITCHZZZZZZZZZZZZ....right into the dumper....
Did those sacks over at Goldman mention anything about the $5.00/gal gasoline the $1.00 each bananas, the doubling of taxes or any of the other benefits of living in a totalitarian state?
GS must be dumping the S&P?
They always seem to play the other side of the trade that they recommend to the muppets. But they say that this time it is different.
It is different this time, isn't it?
Isn't it?
Uh oh....
No...it isn't different. This is Goldman announcing they are ready to dump their positions....and they want a nice algo driven buy program to take them out at nice prices. There is nothing different here, and nothing is new under the sun.
Proposals for WWIII must also be Uberhyper-Bullish.
Goldman is professional and prescient. Anybody who followed Goldman's advice to short gold and silver in April has already made a great fortune.
Surge, Stocks!
Crash, Gold and Silver!
Die, silverbugs!
I'm assuming you up arrowed yourself...
eigenvalue
You're a little long on picking cherries... No ? When you throw enough shit at the wall something is bound to stick.
So I'm guessing you work at Goldman? Well, when you get your texts/cell phone calls from the COMEX about impending margin hikes and you fade silver or gold....then yeahhhh, that's not really prescience at all, that's just cheating and front running investors. To add to that, you people just recommend to anyone to invest or short one investment, while you take the opposite end. Yeahhhhhh.. That's not really prescience either. Finally, I'll keep stacking thank you very much. Gold, silver.. Or salt, lumber, saffron, hookers, whatever will always have more intrinsic value than paper that can be printed at will and (like nearly all central banks of the world) issued whenever you get a loan. Sorry man. Enjoy starving and losing everything when this paper Ponzi scheme blows up on you.
Hope you are right, so we can keep loading up the PMs. You keep the paper, Zerohedgers will keep the gold / silver.
Now the bulls really need to worry.
Oh boy, you better run for the doors like you're in a third world nightclub.....
yeah, these are the same asshats that called gold to, what, 2000?...right as it topped-out.
SELL BITCHEZ, the end is nigh!!!
This is a flashing red warning signal. What will BernanQE say tomorrow?
They may be right, but a loaf of bread will be $10.
And you will still be able to buy that loaf of bread with a 90% silver dime.
"obamacare" will destroy earnings, destroy paychecks and increase costs for everyone that has insurance. earnings will drop 15-20%, minimum in 2014. wages will drop. but those deadbeats down the street will be getting free drugs and doctor visits on your dime:)
Agree! Buy WAG, CVS and pharmaceuticals.
History has shown that these idiots have no freaking clue where the market will go, but they sure make it easy to identify the top.
+100 Doc
This market is easy. As long as there is QE, it goes up. (blech) But, once it stops....
C'mon, still room for a few more lemmings in the roach motel!
So basically Golden Slacks has run out of muppets then.
All of us here know when Goldman talks - run the other fucking way as fast as your feet will take you.
Landfills go uberhyper-bearish on Bitcoin as it may put them out of business.
http://tradewithdave.com/?p=16647
If it is 1900 in 2014 then for sure it will become 1.9bn and rising in 2015
Take cover in 2015....it will the next acute coronary for the u.s......
Your time frame is a little late Kito. Things will start happenning sooner than that. If we make it to 2014 before the wheels fall off I will be surprised. I'm starting to get more pressure from people for more equity exposure, and that is never a good sign.
To Quote Our ZH Fellow Bastiat:
Transrectal Cardiectomy coming soon to a body near you.
I think the revelry in stocks will last longer than most think.......
Martin Armstrong suggests 2015.75 (late 2015). In fact, about the most evil thing that could happen is some sort of flood of capital rushing into the USD, then the rug getting pulled out in a couple of years.
MA thesis entirely predicated on global capital flows and US.MIL. What if....
But physical gold will cost more than the S&P500 and paper gold will be worthless.
And then ??? There will be Mega-Hyper Quantitive Uneasing everywere !
Uberhyper-bullish? There's another way to say it which is: Bloated.
Up another 5% by year end? What are they smoking, "this Market" goes up 5% per quarter.
Nuff said.
It's very simple - should dividends increase by 20%, capital expenditures will continue to fall. It's a kiss of death, markets boom and multiples expand when companies invest in their business to keep up with demand or create demand by innovation, the opposite is occurring here.
The dividend paying, buyback spiel also occurred prior to the 2001 and 2008 crashes - we are that close.
Excellent point, there are no increasing cash flows to fund dividend increases like that. It is continue to either cut cap ex and R&D or lever up the balance sheet further to fund the dividends. That game doesn't play long before it is over.
But it is TUESDAY you know
Borrowing to pay dividends. What's the problem ?
HD coming back to market in 2H
Is there any better contrarian single then sell side strategist's all leaping over one another with higher S&P 500 targets.
Again how does one get one of these 7 figure jobs, where the margin of error is greater than 50%?
OH there's always room for just 1 moar wafer-thin mint Misseur! Mr. Creosote - clip - YouTube
A 1750 S&P500 by end of 2013 is a 23% gain for the year.
US Q1 GDP reports 2.5% after forecasts of 3.4% - a 27% miss - but the markets keep going up.
Sure, why the fuck not??? It's the Ben and Barry 'cntrl-P show".
MOAR PRINTING!!!!
US Q1 GDP reports 2.5% after forecasts of 3.4% - a 27% miss
US manipulates the CPI lower by at least 3% and probably by 4%. If you use real inflation numbers, US official plus 3%, then growth in Q1 was -0.5%. But since when did facts matter in a manipulated market?
@Orangegeek,
You obviously didn't hear Jim Cramer this morning on CNBC. With his best straight face, defended the 18 straight Tuesday ramps AS PROOF that the markets ARE NOT fake. Up is up, down is up, sideways is up, flat is up, dead and dying is UP...Yet, these markets are pure as the driven snow...Amazing what some will say versus what they MUST know!!!
nothing says integrity like Jim-BUY EVERYTHING FOREVER ESPECIALLY CITI-Cramer
and it's impossibru!!
http://flic.kr/p/enJ7Cs
Well this tears it. I'm covering my shorts, selling my gold, buying a DOW 20,000 hat and signing up for trading alerts from Cramer. No more critical thinking for me - gave me headaches and nosebleeds.
"almost as bad as JP Morgan's boardroom battles." these place are total nut houses and damn near dysfunctional in a FAR from dystopian world. IF (and i emphasize the word IF) the Fed decides to take away the punch bowl here all these things will seem as ridiculous as they truly always are and always have been. POSERS! EVERYONE OF YA! GET OFF MY TELEVISION SET YOU JERKS. (welcome to my computer apparently. ick. even worse. I do note the Yankess are in first however. AGAIN.) will see what the Sphinxer dishes this time around. "the Stage is his" soon indeed. YOU FIRST of course. i recommend he say "assfart" and leave it at that (it's a medical term i believe...of some great note back in the day amongst the great thinkers of the time. it has since grown to cover a multitude of illnesses and diseases and has now made its way into the monetary lexicon. or ABOUT to make its way into the monetary lexicon i should say. or so i hear at least...)
So Vet, did you "juice" your juice this morning?
Just asking.
They have no idea, don't let them fool you. They have no clue what will happen tomorrow, much less what will happen in 2015.
1750 by 2013 year end still means we need a correction here, otherwise we reach this lunatic new target within a couple of months, based on this new version of Abby Cohen.
After the momentum players have gone all-in, next in line will be the value players and dividend chasers.
Goldman also predicted oil last year would soar to $145....before it then fell to $89......hasn't hit even $100 since then.
Yep, they also predicted oil would go to $200 when it was at $145, before it crashed to $30.
Somebody wants to get short at the top.
Not to mention Goldman's 2012 end of year price target was 1250.
Anyone have Goldman's projections from March 2009?
GS Abby Cohen in late 2007:
"Recession likely to be avoided, due to strenght in exports and capital spending by corporations and government"
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119768725735731187.html
Thank you sir, says it all. Calculated some statistics on it. 2008 projections by top analysts:
1525 Merrill Lynch
1525 Morgan Stanley
1590 JPMorgan
1625 BofA
1630 Lehman Brothers
1640 Deutsche Bank
1650 Credit Suisse
1675 Goldman Sachs
1675 Citigroup
1700 UBS
1700 Bear Stearns
1750 ISI Group
1640 Consensus average
68 Consensus standard deviation
931 Actual
-10.4 sigma event
Now that's reliability I can count on!
I have either become much wiser since 2000. Or much more foolish. As I jumped in 2000 almost at the highs after doing nothing for 4 years. Now in 2013 not only have I bought lots if gold and silver , I still have no desire to buy any paper. No matter how high the fuckers say its going.
Wise or foolish ?????
@ Seasmoke
I got out in 1999, back in 2004, out in 2008 & in PM's since.
No regrets.
QE5 is the direct buying of stocks. It is going on now.
To da moon ma bitch Norton
Well - tomorrow's session in Japan should be interesting.
We suspect GS's Kathy Matsui is currently busy tweaking her Nikkei225 earnings estimates and multiple ranges.
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/
Iam buying shinny yellow metal people I mean isheeple are panicked
Time to get out of the market, when the Jewsih crimee circus tells you to buy, means get the hell out of this hyperinfated market.
Lloyd says he is doing God's work. Fleecing the goyim.
Sheep pile in, Goldman says so.
It means there full into equities and ready to sell to bag holders.
BUY BUY BUY BUY
so goldman is selling ?????
Why stop at $2100? Why not S&P at $1,000,000 in 2015. Todamoon Bitchez!
Short.
The Fed would like to go on QEing and ZIRPing and Equity shopping forever but that’s not the way the world works. There’re a whole people out here who want a future, some stability in their lives, some leisure and some freedom. And that’s going to conflict with what the Fed has to do to keep its magic show going.
I don’t think Goldman does anything unless it benefits them. There’s no reason for them to predict this unless it has some advantage to them. If it’s anything like they treat their investors and stockholders, they tell then one thing and do the other. They are duplicitous. It’s good to know what they say but you’ve gotta know who’s talking.
If the Devil shows up with his hooves and tells you to listen, that he’s going to lay out the truth, you think to yourself, it probably ain't so.
The Fed, et al., are going into a box canyon. And the reality that’s built against them is man’s desire not to be a slave. Their system is set up where the control moves to slavery more and more until eventually they have to control everything or else it gets out of hand.
It think it’s’ going to be taken from them. Soon.
The problem is they are a gang of criminals and each want his share and he wants it now! If one of them wants to back off, raise interest rates and give the economy something back in return because the natives are getting restless, you know what they'd say? Let’s get rid of this guy.
They remind me of the Brinks robbery, a well executed plan but too many guys involved. And they've brought in all these multinational corporations to share in this and none of them want the music to stop.
A case in point of central control clamping down on its subjects is on Frontrunning today: “France must reform or face punitive measures - EU's Oettinger.” France is bank heavy.
You mean the market and the money print isn't real??
it's not real
IT'S NOT REAL!
pop! goes the weasel
Sell all your Gold and Silver and Don't fight the Fed!
/s
Of course!
/
sell
all
real
coins
I'm right on top of it.
LONG SHTOCKS!!
Muppet forecast: buy MOAR
O, I r shocked.