Goldman Goes Uberhyper-Bullish, Hikes S&P500 Target To 1750 By Year End, Sees 2100 By 2015

Tyler Durden's picture

"Our positive 2013 outlook for S&P 500 has played out much faster than we expected." That is how the latest equity update from Goldman Sachs, which until today had an S&P target of 1625 for the year end S&P, begins. And, logically, the only option for Goldman is to hike its outlook even more, because not even the Squid apparently could anticipate how quickly the policy it forced down the throats of central banks around the world, levitated markets to surpass its old price targets. The result is David Kostin (who until December had foreseen 1250 on the S&P for the end of 2012) and company were forced to goalseek even higher targets based on tried and true excel model fudging exercises, and such "value" creation as multiple expansion and dividend payments.

To wit: "Our earnings estimates remain unchanged but we raise our dividend estimates and index return forecasts for 2013 through 2015. We expect S&P 500 will rise by 5% to 1750 by year-end 2013, advance by 9% to 1900 in 2014, and climb by 10% to 2100 in 2015. Our 2013 return implies a year-end P/E of 15.0x, a one multiple point premium to our fair-value estimate. We forecast dividends will rise by 30% during next two years. Dividend yield is likely to stay around 2%, in line with the 20-year average." For the record, Goldman had previously seen 1,900 in 2015. And now it sees another 200 points of value due to the magic of multiple expansion. That anyone can even pretend to forecast what happens three years into the future at a time when the central banks are injecting $160 billion (and soon $200 billion), and most likely will have to slowdown and halt such liquidity injection resulting in untold stock market carnage, is so beyond commentary we will leave it hanging for the ridiculous statement it is.

As for 2013, at least Goldman leave out any mention of 2013 consensys earnings... for good reason:

So in lieu of early Tuesday humor, here is how Goldman achieves its "target forecasts." All we can conclude from this is that neither Tepper nor Goldman are anywhere near done selling to muppets.

But don't for a second think any of this is earnings driven. As we showed last night, it isn't. It is all based on prayer that Bernanke and his central planning magicians can keep on expanding the increasingly meaningless PE multiple, which incidentally would collapse if and when rate were to go back to historical levels now that corporate debt is at unseen before levels.

We would spend a few more second reading this drivel, but we have better things to do. Anyone fascinated by wasting time with paperweight is urged to do so on their own.

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Iam Yue2's picture

The top has been called.

BeetleBailey's picture

FORWARD BITCHZZZZZZZZZZZZ....right into the dumper....

Manthong's picture

Did those sacks over at Goldman mention anything about the $5.00/gal gasoline the $1.00 each bananas, the doubling of taxes or any of the other benefits of living in a totalitarian state?

aka Gil's picture

GS must be dumping the S&P?

Keynesian Mess's picture

They always seem to play the other side of the trade that they recommend to the muppets. But they say that this time it is different.

It is different this time, isn't it?

Isn't it?

Uh oh....

Cdad's picture

No...it isn't different.  This is Goldman announcing they are ready to dump their positions....and they want a nice algo driven buy program to take them out at nice prices.  There is nothing different here, and nothing is new under the sun.  

 

espirit's picture

Proposals for WWIII must also be Uberhyper-Bullish.

eigenvalue's picture

Goldman is professional and prescient. Anybody who followed Goldman's advice to short gold and silver in April has already made a great fortune. 

Surge, Stocks!

Crash, Gold and Silver!

Die, silverbugs!

Skin666's picture

I'm assuming you up arrowed yourself...

Kayman's picture

eigenvalue

You're a little long on picking cherries... No ? When you throw enough shit at the wall something is bound to stick.

Tsunami Wave's picture

So I'm guessing you work at Goldman? Well, when you get your texts/cell phone calls from the COMEX about impending margin hikes and you fade silver or gold....then yeahhhh, that's not really prescience at all, that's just cheating and front running investors. To add to that, you people just recommend to anyone to invest or short one investment, while you take the opposite end. Yeahhhhhh.. That's not really prescience either. Finally, I'll keep stacking thank you very much. Gold, silver.. Or salt, lumber, saffron, hookers, whatever will always have more intrinsic value than paper that can be printed at will and (like nearly all central banks of the world) issued whenever you get a loan. Sorry man. Enjoy starving and losing everything when this paper Ponzi scheme blows up on you.

adventure007's picture

Hope you are right, so we can keep loading up the PMs. You keep the paper, Zerohedgers will keep the gold / silver.

slaughterer's picture

Now the bulls really need to worry.

dow2000's picture

Oh boy, you better run for the doors like you're in a third world nightclub.....

Whatta's picture

yeah, these are the same asshats that called gold to, what, 2000?...right as it topped-out.

SELL BITCHEZ, the end is nigh!!!

Cursive's picture

This is a flashing red warning signal.  What will BernanQE say tomorrow?

Silverhog's picture

They may be right, but a loaf of bread will be $10. 

Agstacker's picture

And you will still be able to buy that loaf of bread with a 90% silver dime.

101 years and counting's picture

"obamacare" will destroy earnings, destroy paychecks and increase costs for everyone that has insurance.  earnings will drop 15-20%, minimum in 2014.  wages will drop.  but those deadbeats down the street will be getting free drugs and doctor visits on your dime:)

pemdas's picture

Agree!  Buy WAG, CVS and pharmaceuticals.

Dr. Engali's picture

History has shown that these idiots have no freaking clue where the market will go, but they sure make it easy to identify the top.

asteroids's picture

This market is easy. As long as there is QE, it goes up. (blech) But, once it stops....

GMadScientist's picture

C'mon, still room for a few more lemmings in the roach motel!

SheepDog-One's picture

So basically Golden Slacks has run out of muppets then.

FubarNation's picture

All of us here know when Goldman talks - run the other fucking way as fast as your feet will take you.

tradewithdave's picture

Landfills go uberhyper-bearish on Bitcoin as it may put them out of business. 

http://tradewithdave.com/?p=16647

Kina's picture

If it is 1900 in 2014 then for sure it will become 1.9bn and rising in 2015

kito's picture

Take cover in 2015....it will the next acute coronary for the u.s......

Dr. Engali's picture

Your time frame is a little late Kito. Things will start happenning sooner than that. If we make it to 2014 before the wheels fall off I will be surprised. I'm starting to get more pressure from people for more equity exposure, and that is never a good sign.

espirit's picture

To Quote Our ZH Fellow Bastiat:

Transrectal Cardiectomy coming soon to a body near you.

kito's picture

I think the revelry in stocks will last longer than most think.......

centerline's picture

Martin Armstrong suggests 2015.75 (late 2015).  In fact, about the most evil thing that could happen is some sort of flood of capital rushing into the USD, then the rug getting pulled out in a couple of years.

SDRII's picture

MA thesis entirely predicated on global capital flows and US.MIL. What if....

PaperBear's picture

But physical gold will cost more than the S&P500 and paper gold will be worthless.

Theducktape's picture

And then ??? There will be Mega-Hyper Quantitive Uneasing everywere ! 

horot's picture

Uberhyper-bullish? There's another way to say it which is: Bloated.

El Hosel's picture

 Up another 5% by year end? What are they smoking, "this Market" goes up 5% per quarter.

Boston's picture

 

The result is David Kostin (who until December had foreseen 1250 on the S&P for the end of 2012)

Nuff said.

madbraz's picture

It's very simple - should dividends increase by 20%, capital expenditures will continue to fall.  It's a kiss of death, markets boom and multiples expand when companies invest in their business to keep up with demand or create demand by innovation, the opposite is occurring here. 

 

The dividend paying, buyback spiel also occurred prior to the 2001 and 2008 crashes - we are that close.

Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

Excellent point, there are no increasing cash flows to fund dividend increases like that.  It is continue to either cut cap ex and R&D or lever up the balance sheet further to fund the dividends.  That game doesn't play long before it is over. 

 

But it is TUESDAY you know

Kayman's picture

Borrowing to pay dividends. What's the problem ?

SDRII's picture

HD coming back to market in 2H

lizzy36's picture

Is there any better contrarian single then sell side strategist's all leaping over one another with higher S&P 500 targets. 

Again how does one get one of these 7 figure jobs, where the margin of error is greater than 50%?

SheepDog-One's picture

OH there's always room for just 1 moar wafer-thin mint Misseur! Mr. Creosote - clip - YouTube

orangegeek's picture

A 1750 S&P500 by end of 2013 is a 23% gain for the year.

 

US Q1 GDP reports 2.5% after forecasts of 3.4% - a 27% miss - but the markets keep going up.

 

Sure, why the fuck not???  It's the Ben and Barry 'cntrl-P show".

 

MOAR PRINTING!!!!

JustObserving's picture

US Q1 GDP reports 2.5% after forecasts of 3.4% - a 27% miss 

US manipulates the CPI lower by at least 3% and probably by 4%.  If you use real inflation numbers, US official plus 3%, then growth in Q1 was -0.5%.  But since when did facts matter in a manipulated market?

Lewshine's picture

@Orangegeek,

You obviously didn't hear Jim Cramer this morning on CNBC. With his best straight face, defended the 18 straight Tuesday ramps AS PROOF that the markets ARE NOT fake. Up is up, down is up, sideways is up, flat is up, dead and dying is UP...Yet, these markets are pure as the driven snow...Amazing what some will say versus what they MUST know!!!

 

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

nothing says integrity like Jim-BUY EVERYTHING FOREVER ESPECIALLY CITI-Cramer