Goldman Goes Uberhyper-Bullish, Hikes S&P500 Target To 1750 By Year End, Sees 2100 By 2015

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"Our positive 2013 outlook for S&P 500 has played out much faster than we expected." That is how the latest equity update from Goldman Sachs, which until today had an S&P target of 1625 for the year end S&P, begins. And, logically, the only option for Goldman is to hike its outlook even more, because not even the Squid apparently could anticipate how quickly the policy it forced down the throats of central banks around the world, levitated markets to surpass its old price targets. The result is David Kostin (who until December had foreseen 1250 on the S&P for the end of 2012) and company were forced to goalseek even higher targets based on tried and true excel model fudging exercises, and such "value" creation as multiple expansion and dividend payments.

To wit: "Our earnings estimates remain unchanged but we raise our dividend estimates and index return forecasts for 2013 through 2015. We expect S&P 500 will rise by 5% to 1750 by year-end 2013, advance by 9% to 1900 in 2014, and climb by 10% to 2100 in 2015. Our 2013 return implies a year-end P/E of 15.0x, a one multiple point premium to our fair-value estimate. We forecast dividends will rise by 30% during next two years. Dividend yield is likely to stay around 2%, in line with the 20-year average." For the record, Goldman had previously seen 1,900 in 2015. And now it sees another 200 points of value due to the magic of multiple expansion. That anyone can even pretend to forecast what happens three years into the future at a time when the central banks are injecting $160 billion (and soon $200 billion), and most likely will have to slowdown and halt such liquidity injection resulting in untold stock market carnage, is so beyond commentary we will leave it hanging for the ridiculous statement it is.

As for 2013, at least Goldman leave out any mention of 2013 consensys earnings... for good reason:

So in lieu of early Tuesday humor, here is how Goldman achieves its "target forecasts." All we can conclude from this is that neither Tepper nor Goldman are anywhere near done selling to muppets.

But don't for a second think any of this is earnings driven. As we showed last night, it isn't. It is all based on prayer that Bernanke and his central planning magicians can keep on expanding the increasingly meaningless PE multiple, which incidentally would collapse if and when rate were to go back to historical levels now that corporate debt is at unseen before levels.

We would spend a few more second reading this drivel, but we have better things to do. Anyone fascinated by wasting time with paperweight is urged to do so on their own.

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Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:26 | 3583428 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

The top has been called.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:31 | 3583446 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

FORWARD BITCHZZZZZZZZZZZZ....right into the dumper....

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:33 | 3583453 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Did those sacks over at Goldman mention anything about the $5.00/gal gasoline the $1.00 each bananas, the doubling of taxes or any of the other benefits of living in a totalitarian state?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:43 | 3583491 aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

GS must be dumping the S&P?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:00 | 3583554 Keynesian Mess
Keynesian Mess's picture

They always seem to play the other side of the trade that they recommend to the muppets. But they say that this time it is different.

It is different this time, isn't it?

Isn't it?

Uh oh....

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:13 | 3583596 Cdad
Cdad's picture

No...it isn't different.  This is Goldman announcing they are ready to dump their positions....and they want a nice algo driven buy program to take them out at nice prices.  There is nothing different here, and nothing is new under the sun.  

 

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:44 | 3583496 espirit
espirit's picture

Proposals for WWIII must also be Uberhyper-Bullish.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:40 | 3583483 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Goldman is professional and prescient. Anybody who followed Goldman's advice to short gold and silver in April has already made a great fortune. 

Surge, Stocks!

Crash, Gold and Silver!

Die, silverbugs!

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:57 | 3583531 Skin666
Skin666's picture

I'm assuming you up arrowed yourself...

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:37 | 3583665 Kayman
Kayman's picture

eigenvalue

You're a little long on picking cherries... No ? When you throw enough shit at the wall something is bound to stick.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:53 | 3583710 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

So I'm guessing you work at Goldman? Well, when you get your texts/cell phone calls from the COMEX about impending margin hikes and you fade silver or gold....then yeahhhh, that's not really prescience at all, that's just cheating and front running investors. To add to that, you people just recommend to anyone to invest or short one investment, while you take the opposite end. Yeahhhhhh.. That's not really prescience either. Finally, I'll keep stacking thank you very much. Gold, silver.. Or salt, lumber, saffron, hookers, whatever will always have more intrinsic value than paper that can be printed at will and (like nearly all central banks of the world) issued whenever you get a loan. Sorry man. Enjoy starving and losing everything when this paper Ponzi scheme blows up on you.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 10:00 | 3583735 adventure007
adventure007's picture

Hope you are right, so we can keep loading up the PMs. You keep the paper, Zerohedgers will keep the gold / silver.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:42 | 3583488 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Now the bulls really need to worry.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:44 | 3583494 dow2000
dow2000's picture

Oh boy, you better run for the doors like you're in a third world nightclub.....

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:00 | 3583549 Whatta
Whatta's picture

yeah, these are the same asshats that called gold to, what, 2000?...right as it topped-out.

SELL BITCHEZ, the end is nigh!!!

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:28 | 3583434 Cursive
Cursive's picture

This is a flashing red warning signal.  What will BernanQE say tomorrow?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:27 | 3583436 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

They may be right, but a loaf of bread will be $10. 

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:58 | 3583537 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

And you will still be able to buy that loaf of bread with a 90% silver dime.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:28 | 3583437 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"obamacare" will destroy earnings, destroy paychecks and increase costs for everyone that has insurance.  earnings will drop 15-20%, minimum in 2014.  wages will drop.  but those deadbeats down the street will be getting free drugs and doctor visits on your dime:)

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:48 | 3583696 pemdas
pemdas's picture

Agree!  Buy WAG, CVS and pharmaceuticals.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:29 | 3583441 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

History has shown that these idiots have no freaking clue where the market will go, but they sure make it easy to identify the top.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:32 | 3583447 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

+100 Doc

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:20 | 3583612 asteroids
asteroids's picture

This market is easy. As long as there is QE, it goes up. (blech) But, once it stops....

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:30 | 3583443 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

C'mon, still room for a few more lemmings in the roach motel!

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:31 | 3583445 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So basically Golden Slacks has run out of muppets then.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:32 | 3583450 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

All of us here know when Goldman talks - run the other fucking way as fast as your feet will take you.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:32 | 3583451 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Landfills go uberhyper-bearish on Bitcoin as it may put them out of business. 

http://tradewithdave.com/?p=16647

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:33 | 3583452 Kina
Kina's picture

If it is 1900 in 2014 then for sure it will become 1.9bn and rising in 2015

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:33 | 3583455 kito
kito's picture

Take cover in 2015....it will the next acute coronary for the u.s......

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:48 | 3583481 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Your time frame is a little late Kito. Things will start happenning sooner than that. If we make it to 2014 before the wheels fall off I will be surprised. I'm starting to get more pressure from people for more equity exposure, and that is never a good sign.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:49 | 3583508 espirit
espirit's picture

To Quote Our ZH Fellow Bastiat:

Transrectal Cardiectomy coming soon to a body near you.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:52 | 3583514 kito
kito's picture

I think the revelry in stocks will last longer than most think.......

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:10 | 3583590 centerline
centerline's picture

Martin Armstrong suggests 2015.75 (late 2015).  In fact, about the most evil thing that could happen is some sort of flood of capital rushing into the USD, then the rug getting pulled out in a couple of years.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 11:42 | 3584200 SDRII
SDRII's picture

MA thesis entirely predicated on global capital flows and US.MIL. What if....

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:33 | 3583456 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

But physical gold will cost more than the S&P500 and paper gold will be worthless.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:34 | 3583462 Theducktape
Theducktape's picture

And then ??? There will be Mega-Hyper Quantitive Uneasing everywere ! 

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:34 | 3583463 horot
horot's picture

Uberhyper-bullish? There's another way to say it which is: Bloated.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:36 | 3583467 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

 Up another 5% by year end? What are they smoking, "this Market" goes up 5% per quarter.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:36 | 3583464 Boston
Boston's picture

 

The result is David Kostin (who until December had foreseen 1250 on the S&P for the end of 2012)

Nuff said.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:36 | 3583468 madbraz
madbraz's picture

It's very simple - should dividends increase by 20%, capital expenditures will continue to fall.  It's a kiss of death, markets boom and multiples expand when companies invest in their business to keep up with demand or create demand by innovation, the opposite is occurring here. 

 

The dividend paying, buyback spiel also occurred prior to the 2001 and 2008 crashes - we are that close.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:20 | 3583610 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

Excellent point, there are no increasing cash flows to fund dividend increases like that.  It is continue to either cut cap ex and R&D or lever up the balance sheet further to fund the dividends.  That game doesn't play long before it is over. 

 

But it is TUESDAY you know

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:42 | 3583680 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Borrowing to pay dividends. What's the problem ?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 11:43 | 3584210 SDRII
SDRII's picture

HD coming back to market in 2H

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:37 | 3583470 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Is there any better contrarian single then sell side strategist's all leaping over one another with higher S&P 500 targets. 

Again how does one get one of these 7 figure jobs, where the margin of error is greater than 50%?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:37 | 3583471 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH there's always room for just 1 moar wafer-thin mint Misseur! Mr. Creosote - clip - YouTube

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:37 | 3583473 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

A 1750 S&P500 by end of 2013 is a 23% gain for the year.

 

US Q1 GDP reports 2.5% after forecasts of 3.4% - a 27% miss - but the markets keep going up.

 

Sure, why the fuck not???  It's the Ben and Barry 'cntrl-P show".

 

MOAR PRINTING!!!!

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 08:54 | 3583520 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US Q1 GDP reports 2.5% after forecasts of 3.4% - a 27% miss 

US manipulates the CPI lower by at least 3% and probably by 4%.  If you use real inflation numbers, US official plus 3%, then growth in Q1 was -0.5%.  But since when did facts matter in a manipulated market?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 09:12 | 3583594 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

@Orangegeek,

You obviously didn't hear Jim Cramer this morning on CNBC. With his best straight face, defended the 18 straight Tuesday ramps AS PROOF that the markets ARE NOT fake. Up is up, down is up, sideways is up, flat is up, dead and dying is UP...Yet, these markets are pure as the driven snow...Amazing what some will say versus what they MUST know!!!

 

Wed, 05/29/2013 - 18:27 | 3608704 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

nothing says integrity like Jim-BUY EVERYTHING FOREVER ESPECIALLY CITI-Cramer

Wed, 05/29/2013 - 18:26 | 3608699 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

and it's impossibru!!

http://flic.kr/p/enJ7Cs

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