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Latest Stolper Fiasco: Goldman Stopped Out On Long EURHUF, 2.86% Loss In One Month

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Curious how to trade those Goldman recommendations, such as today's uberbullish "strategic" call seeing nothing but blue skies all the way through 2015? Here is a quick reminder courtesy of your friendly FX wizard, Goldman's Tom Stolper.

Trade Update: Close Long EUR/HUF Recommendation after stop is hit

 

On April 18 we recommended going long EUR/HUF. Our view has been that higher US yields would hurt a number of EM currencies (including the HUF). We also thought that ongoing monetary easing in Hungary would further compress interest rate differentials, leading to a gradual weakening in the currency. Although both macro drivers materialized, the HUF strengthened, contrary to our expectation.

 

We clearly underestimated the degree of risk premium for weaker economic outcomes already embedded in the currency. In the short life of the recommendation, a number of positive catalysts have emerged, including a strong GDP print and a smooth outcome in the ongoing budget negotiations with the EU.

 

Our broader fundamental view has not changed, but having just hit our recommended stop of 290, we recommend closing the position with a potential 2.86% loss (including negative carry of about 32bp in total).

If there is still any confusion: do what Goldman does (i.e., trade against its client), not what Goldman says.

 

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Tue, 05/21/2013 - 13:04 | 3584484 JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

his EURGBP call is marginally postive right now....

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 13:28 | 3584572 Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

I wasn't aware the Huffington Post was a tradeable currency

 

yeah yeah I deserve the red arrow

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 13:28 | 3584573 idea_hamster
Tue, 05/21/2013 - 14:00 | 3584702 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Yet somehow their pro traders never have a down day, amazing... 

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 13:05 | 3584490 fourchan
fourchan's picture


shark in the water: "come on in the waters fine."

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 13:06 | 3584493 The Thunder Child
The Thunder Child's picture

When Lloyd refers to doing Gods work he is reffering to his god...Lucifer.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 13:29 | 3584580 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

...or Mammon.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 13:10 | 3584503 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     I saved this little nugget from last night. Goldman Sachs: S&P500 to 1750 by year-end 2013, then to 2100 in 2015 | ForexLive

    Go get em Vampire Squid.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 13:22 | 3584545 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Muppet roadkill

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 13:41 | 3584631 Zerozen
Zerozen's picture

The world's most valuable counter-signal. A guy with this track record is worth a fortune.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 14:08 | 3584748 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

I just went out and bought my first "I Just Got Fucked By Goldman Sachs" bumper sticker.

 

Looks really cool on my 1998 Camry.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 14:28 | 3584854 bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

Durden is Stolpe of ZHr,he is constantly risk-on in a rallying market.

His HYIG and context charts are next biggest joke ever LOL:)

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 15:11 | 3585028 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Dicking da muppets!

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