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"The Math Is Stacked Against Japan - It's Not 'If', It's When"
As the BoJ prepares to thrill us with even moar in its latest policy meeting (or not as we discussed earlier) and with Amari et al. now jawboning JPY to some extent to control the out-of-control chaos in JGBs, it is perhaps worth taking 20 minutes to comprehend just what all this extreme policy action means. The following brief presentation covers it all in a Kyle-Bass-ian facts-and-fallacies manner, Christine Hughes sums it all up perfectly, for Japan, "The Math Is Stacked Against Japan - It's Not 'If', It's When."
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Mathra
This is, like, Japan 101. Not very deep.
Just because something isn't news to you, doesn't mean that it's not news to 99.99% of the population. Sometimes (usually) messages need to be repeated (beaten into someone's head) before people learn.
Great commentary.
Christine, I'm actively looking for a new sugar momma - call me.
Maybe we can recruit her into Tyler's multiple personality disorder. Maybe she already is. <sigh>
Who are Tyler? :)
Is hot. Would bang.
Did she really say, George Soros is an old dude?
but we'ed do er right?
True, a succinct and CLEAR explanation of what is already obvious to many of us would indeed benefit the masses.
But that said, this sub-moronic blonde twit offers no such clarity. Brittney Spears could have done better.
I hope Kyle Bass isn't reading. He should be insulted by the comparison.
xPat
But who, honestly, wants to curl up with Kyle Bass? I mean, he's a smart guy and all, but ....
Probably too harsh. I sent it off to KB while listening with an FYI and then felt a little silly. You're right; the message should be repeated.
Damns we are so screwred
The question for me is, "Isn't this roughly the same path the USA is on?" It seems Japan will extend our ability to play the game longer but the forces are the same except perhaps demographics. The USA does have immigration, legal and illegal. I am not sure how much is net productive but it brings in younger people.
My bond portfolio just got stronger.
The question for me is, "Isn't this roughly the same path the USA is on?" It seems Japan will extend our ability to play the game longer but the forces are the same except perhaps demographics. The USA does have immigration, legal and illegal. I am not sure how much is net productive but it brings in younger people.
My bond portfolio just got stronger.
Fearful, cautious, thoughtful men have been replaced by desperate cowards. The US FED is no different.
kyle bass
Looking forward to the "Kyle Bass was right" Youtube video next year.
I have no doubt Kyle will be right. I do have a doubt that at the point where he's been proven correct, we'll have an internet that's both open and functioning enough to play a gloat video from him.
There are few true oracles in this world but Bass seems to be one who can read proper tea leaves. I would consider him a sort of economic-financial prophet, certainly worth listening to.
It's hard to ignore a guy who owns $1 million in nickles, or demanded delivery of $1 billion in gold from the COMEX on behalf of the Univ. of TX.
Worth watching if you haven't seen it. He covers quite a bit
Same talking points in smaller recent interviews rolled up into one even though its a number of months back
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY
Can you say Global Thermo Nuclear War?
It will likely come down to a global reset agreed upon by the major powers or WW3
Either way they'll look to use it to implement a NWO OWG
I dunno, I used to believe all that 'math' stuff, and 'you can't print your way out of debt' and 'supply and demand ultimately determine price in the market'. But these days I'm really starting to fall in line with the 'Central Bankers are fucking genius wizards who are enriching us all through infinite debt' story. I mean, it seems to be working, they seem to have somehow managed to dissolve all physical supply constraints and deliver a Panglossian 'best of all possible worlds' (especially if you're a banker). So hell, maybe they can run the ponzi forever, to some infinite debt singularity where money supply and bond issues go straight vertical, and the prices of everything else stay 'flat'.
The race is on between the Ponzi collapsing and virtual reality becoming reality, i.e. The Matrix, where resource constraints become moot since it is all a fantasy existence...
Edit: To anyone junking this, in about 20 years, people will be begging for the Matrix because the alteranative will be even worse....
Al by me hyperinflation has set in. I know everything is regional, but everything by me is packed. Restaurants, malls, home improvement stores. People are out spending their asses off. One of my relatives is in the wine and spirits industry. She can't believe the activity going on in the restaurants.
People are coming to the conclusion, whether conscious of it or not, that their money is worthless, and they won't be rewarded for saving it. So they are pissing it away in full, all day, everyday.
I know, I see the same thing, although part of me thinks its just that people are now operating on the assumption that everything's good, no need to save, thank god that 2008 event is over and done with. That, plus the fucking inflation calculations are complete bullshit - everything I buy's up 10% plus in the past 6 months, and there's no inflation?
Al, Fonz- there are no adults in the room right now. Shit in DC is not helping (nor in any other major world government). I know it's not popular around here to say "leadership matters" but I think you've both been around the block enough to know that it does. And we're damned short on anything I recognize as leadership right now.
This ain't the time. This ain't the place. You're not going to see sanity entering the equation anytime soon- the sociopaths are in total control right now. This is when you prepare. Take profits while you can, where you can. You'll need it later.
You already know the truth. In trying to keep every bubble from collapsing the powers that be have set the stage for an even bigger, though delayed, collapse. You're not insane. Our view of the world is just out of vogue right now. And only reality is going to bring it back. Reality is a slow, pitiliess bitch, though.
I have an alternate explanation as it is an idea that I play with. My impression is that most people have this gut feeling that all is going to hell and it is not going to get better in the future. Even the lefties I know that should be celebrating their victories in the USA are angry and gloomy. They are in an interesting dualist denial. They say our direction is right even though it is not working.
So, the spending may be the idea that the future is worse, even apocalyptic so live it up now. It is sort of like an economic asteroid is coming and everyone is going to live in the moment, if they can.
Given the difference in people it may well be a combination of the things we all theorize about. For me, I believe an economic collapse is coming and I cannot tell if it will be inflationary, deflationary or one after the other. However, I am certain that no one governing that can make a difference has a clue. So we're screwed.
and later they ll wonder why they didnt transform it into solid assets instead. But i agree there s a global, subconscious feeling that something bad is going to happen; to morons it is subconscious tho, smart people are completely conscious and prepared accordingly. As always. Smart people being often a lot less numerous than dumb people, a big part of their thinking time is devoted to prepare to fight against the stupid people who will want to get what they dont deserve.
Dr. Zhivago's father: "I'm about to light the last half of the last Cigar in all of Moscow."
I just hope that hyperinflation will not happen while Obama is in office. He will not let this crisis go to waste. I know he's dreaming about the birth of People's Republic of America.
or perhaps those 401(k) statements have been looking particularly good the last little while. Everyone long thinks they are a genius who can afford to splash some money around. Or that's the narrative. Wealth effect. Plus housing has stopped plunging, for now, so maybe feeling a bit more secure there.
Yeah, it's working all right. Just like morphine cures whatever ails ya.
Desensitivity FTMFW!
Yes Alduous, your namesake would be proud of you......doublespeak is king in this brave new world....of course he also wrote a book about sleeping under bridges in Paris and London (down and out....) which is where I think many of us may end up once this glorious experiment comes to an end...........
She was great!
Also, water is wet and so is your momma.
As Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires, the Japanese bond market is the graveyard of economists. I agree with all she says, I agree completely with Kyle Bass who says the same thing. I really believe all these assessments of Japanese collapse when I actually see it.
sunny
First Japan blows. The US is already head down the same path. The great US Federal Reserve experiment in action, Japan fails.
Set the printing presses to max speed and get it over with quickly.
Bernanke, Evans, Dudley and Yellen will need to keep increasing QE from $85 billion/month to double or triple that amount.
In theory, I believe he will eventually need to buy all U.S. debt. Taxing enough to end the debt crashes the economy. Reducing government enough to meet revenues crashes the economy (in Keynesian theory), social spending obligations are accelerating rapidly...what's not to love about this? We are going to see if faux entries on spreadsheets and printers can save us.
Pearl Harbor better be on Alert.
I just hope i get my PS4 before they crash.
She's using Math to explain economics! She must be some sort of witch!
Too funny. ROFL
Did she turn you into a "Nuet"?
Off topic: Looks like the unions are beginning to realize that, now having "seen what's in it," Obamacare is really a fascist money grab by the pharma, insurance and hospital industries. I wonder when they'll realize that Obama is really a CIA fascist in socialist disguise?
Unions break ranks on ObamaCareLast month, the president of the United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers released a statement calling “for repeal or complete reform of the Affordable Care Act.”
http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/300881-labor-unions-break-ranks-o...
Looks like some people have finally found time to actually read the legislation. You get what you vote for.
Fucking bond sellers.... US bonds are going to crater this year. Maybe ben hopes everyone does the carry to push our yeilds back down. 10 yr 2% Dow 18, 000 not good for our interest payouts
I'd love to be in a position to make hundreds of times my investment as Kyle Bass has said he and his investors will likely make when Japan implodes, a return far better than even the one he earned and became famous for betting against the sub-prime madness, but his hedge fund requires a 5 million dollar minimum investment.
My take on the Japan impact is that we should be investing in REIT's with good yields, energy stocks with yields and...anything in the US or Canada with yield....no gold or silver stocks for now......also shorting the Yen of course and long (carefully) the Nikkei....am I missing anything?
Am I the only one who was watching who was thinking what she was describing could soon apply to the U.S. Yeah not the Yen Carry trade but the part about too many seniors and not enough tax base and if how interest rates rise all the tax money would be going to pay interest on the debt. Doesn't this all apply to the U.S.?
Exactly my thoughts.....this is a dry run.....not that we need one.....
Exactly my thoughts.....this is a dry run.....not that we need one.....
Yes, the difference being that the US dollar is the world reserve currency. So, when bonds and currencies in outer-wherever-Stan start bombing, the locals all run for dollars and prop the US pseudo currency up. The jig will be up for the dollar, but it will be one of the last to fall.
Anybody checked President Passerby's math lately?
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
Anybody checked President Passerby's math lately?
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
Paging Yen Cross.. Please pick up the nearest white curiosity phone. Have you unraveled your trades we talked about this weekend? Our society is so immoral, they would sell their children to make a quick buck. Winks.
Human Behaviour:
Conditions dictate Attitudes,
(read: milieu / Environment)
Attitudes determine Belief Systems - Paradigms,
Belief Systems dictate Behaviours,
Collectives define and dicate new Attitudes.
Members of Collectives serve the Collective,
Collectives are not a life form,
Non-life forms are suicidal,
Humans who think for themselves,
And who reject Collective Membership,
Take actions for survival; Hedge.
"Leadership" throughout the World are consensually
framed into wholesale human self annihilation,
This is called in biology, "extremis". In human terms, it is called 'Ignorance',
'Ignorance' is projected as 'Arrogance'.
"Leadsership" is 'Arrogant'.
The West is Dead:
http://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2006/03/warning-to-east.html
The 'Yield' of Gold is integrity and Survival.
Gold is the World's Standard.
Gold is the Standard of God.
The Global Collapse is accelerating.
Prepare for Pain; Your mileage will Vary.
Ho hum
How dear you try to knock Japan out. Why, we haven't even envoked the power of Godzilla!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCPY5VscATA
just seems TOO SIMPLE to me.......they may have a few rabbits well hidden that they pull out of their ass when no one is looking....do not underestimate the japanese they are sneaky little fuckers.
Seems almost verbatim from KB talking points. I'd be interested to know when their "thesis" was created, but it seems they may be piggybacking on KB research.
We are Fucked, once the Japanese bonds crash,this will spread accross the globe. First in Europe then the US. Once this happens i give it two weeks then the new monitary system will take control. I am suspecting around the October time frame when the new dollar will be introduced. Buy commodities.... that's all i can say.
Anyone... If WTI and Brent trades at 120+ what would that do to JGB and USDJPY?
Kyle Bass is giving his presentation RIGHT NOW in Singapore. Wonder if he has any new slides or info....
http://annual.cfainstitute.org/events/the-central-bankers-potemkin-village/
The words "radical" and "Japan" in one sentence and none of you act surprised.
Obviously we are at financial war with the Japanese. Need bernank buying 300 bil a month. All Japanese bonds. That will show em.
USA USA USA!!!
too fn funny. do you really think japan does not know math, too? do you really think japan will just implode without some plan in place? do you really think no one else will be affected?
i am thinking japan is turning japanese. i really think so.
there is a bankster escape plan that probably includes the quadrillion yen coin and a leap off the ponzi train leaving the usa holding the bag. the people running japan have no love for dc unless they are useful. the usa is increasingly less useful as was exposed by the senkaku island strategy revealing the usa is a convenient friend across the ocean and china is a close neighbor the japanese must deal with every day.
kyle bass may be right but a short play on any western bankster state is a good one. the usa is the biggest and best bet of them all.
She has a poor speaking style. If she said the exact same thing with a lilting English accent at he right tempo the whole thing would have been much more impressive but nothing different in substance. The truth is still the truth even when it does not please your ear. It was a very good summation.
Well that was worth the time.
This is just TOTALLY UTTERLY plagerised from Kyle Bass, she even uses his mannerisms, soundbites, and voice inflections!
more worringly she also sounds like she doesn't understand what she is actually discussing
I said the same thing below and afterwards checked on when their thesis started. It appears their Japan thesis started at this speech. The company only started in January 2012. Using others research is smart....passing others research/thesis as your own should make investors run away from you. What will their next thesis be? Probably along the lines of shorting Canadian housing?
By far the biggest driver of the mounting pressure on the JGB market over the medium to long term is demographics. The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) is now forced to become a net seller, and that could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Unless of course they themselves start borrowing money to fund pension payouts - which they have done for 2 years now.... But that is like standing on a beach trying to stop the tide with your hands.
See this for more on Japanese public finances and the impact of demographic changes:
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/2013/04/25/japan-is-insolvent-but-...
She bleaches her hair. Could have a fat ass too.
My understanding is that the Japanese are super loyal to their companies and their government and will suffer and sacrifice along out of honor and loyalty. This could go on for a long time. The Japanese won't protest or revolt on this out of control printing press of Abe's. Any Japanese out there that can comment on the Japanese mind set? Am I right?
You are right in your basic assessment of the Japanese mindset. The point however is that it won't make any difference once global capital markets conclude that the japanese government is insolvent. Domestic Japanese (loyal as they may be) are becoming net sellers of JGB's becasue so many of them are now retiring, so only the foreigners are left to pick of the slack in terms of funding the government deficits and debt repayment. But they will require a much higher yield, and that will push rates to unsustainable levels vis-a-vis interest payments on the govenrment's debt.
The BoJ can stem the bleeding for a while by printing money and buying all the government's new debt, but the resultant hyper-inflation will wreck the currency and then the economy. It is almost certainly going to get ugly, but the question is precisely when and how bad is it going to be...?
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/
Abe’s Father Was A Kamikaze Pilot http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SSOTm0hEDQ
BoJ Ignores Worst April Trade Deficit Ever – Suggests “Economy Has Started Picking Up”
What about you Shinzo Abe, little chicken-chicken?
Abe’s Father Kamikaze Bingo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBruxedXUes
Abe’s Suicide Attempt http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfFetyronCo
Or Pizaa! Japan: Machine Tool Orders drop 24.1% in April
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=9a1a3862-e849-440f-8a0c-0b10e0d164f8
The preliminary Machine Tool Orders released today by the Japan Machine Tool Builders’ Association showed a 24.1% decline in April, up from the 26.1% drop registered the previous month.
Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JNMTOY:IND