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Visualizing The Cost Of Mining Gold

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There are over 3 billion ounces of gold in the world's deposits. The Top 50 of these mines alone contain over one-third of the total gold. North America is the 'cheapest' place to produce gold and Africa the most expensive. Gold producer profits are getting squeezed from both directions: lower gold prices and rapidly inflating costs...

 

 

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Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:04 | 3586353 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Whatever the costs of mining gold or silver, gold and silver are going to ZERO, which will bankrupt all the gold and silver bugs here on this site!

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:09 | 3586360 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The chances of gold going to Zero is about as good as the chances of you posting something intelligent.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:12 | 3586377 Room 101
Room 101's picture

Naaaah.  Eigen is very intelligent.  You just have to get past his/her reflexive dislike of the PM bugs.  He/she actually has some pretty good insights.  It's like dealing with Francis: get him off the topic of the chosen people and he's very insightful.  Same with Eigen.  Let him vent and bitch and then listen up.  

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:17 | 3586384 The Thunder Child
The Thunder Child's picture

No mention of refinery costs to get that dore into .999 can anyone add that?

Also keep an eye on TSX.DGC some great fundamentals at rock bottom prices.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:36 | 3586450 Spider
Spider's picture

This article is deceptive.

All-in Sustaining costs are NOT all-in costs.  They are only costs related to sustaining existing mines and ignore new development costs, increasing production at existing mines, interest, taxes, etc. 

This guy did an excellent exhaustive study of miners and used 25-30% of world production in his analysis and came up with TRUE all-in costs

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1346991-the-true-all-in-cost-to-mine-gold-complete-2012-figures

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:13 | 3586540 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Excellent article Spider, thanks for posting the link.  + 1

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:28 | 3586692 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Don't confuse the PM bears with actual real world facts about mining costs. They'd rather live in the financial fantasy world of digital money where nothing ever goes wrong.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 01:25 | 3586751 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

"The important thing which every investor needs to understand here is that the Fear based buying potential of the Gold space today is the sum of all the previous expansions, which is [now] potentially the greatest Bull market in human history attempting to fit into one of the smallest and [potentially] explosive markets in human history...physical Gold is now quite rare, it is under constant buying pressure globally, it has circumstances surrounding it where excessive leverage and duplication of contracts (rehypothecation) can add explosive pressure to the upside, and it sits surrounded by a market which is either completely oblivious to its merits, or has been utterly brainwashed to believe otherwise.

It is actually staggeringly difficult to picture all these aspects at one time; the capacity to buy and the potential force of the buying. This is why I have repeatedly stated that, sequel to a Bull Run on the physical Gold space, a Gold price of $134,000 per ounce, in today’s Dollar terms, is more than just possible, it is highly likely."

Too big to fit full post here.

Full comment here: http://twoshortplanksunplugged.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/silver-gold-bull-market-not-over-until.html

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 03:25 | 3586827 i-dog
i-dog's picture

How do all these different valuations for gold, after a reset, "in today's Dollar terms" come about from the various pundits? $2,500 ... $5,000 ... $10,000 ... $20,000 ... $50,000 ... and now, freaking $134,000!!!

They make me very suspicious of the motives!

It's particularly harmful to encourage those who are desperate and without income to go "all in" with remaining capital on the basis of "becoming fabulously wealthy" after a reset.

It's one thing to preserve wealth ... and quite another to gamble under false pretenses.

I can also say that any major war, biological calamity, or starvation though failed infrastructure, causing mass deaths, will reduce the number of people vying for gold and therefore the demand/price equation. If that is already factored into your "$134,000", then how many are you predicting to die off?

Oh, and where can I get me one of them crystal ball thingies like yours?

Please stay level-headed, TSP. I didn't work to get you un-banned for nothing!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 03:55 | 3586847 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

“How do all these different valuations for gold, after a reset, "in today's Dollar terms" come about from the various pundits? $2,500 ... $5,000 ... $10,000 ... $20,000 ... $50,000 ... and now, freaking $134,000!!!”

Yup! A few months ago I wanted to guestimate a figure for Gold if things went to pot financially and economically. So, I took all the factors I know of, built a scenario of what the Gold space might look like, applied that picture to all the financial assets I could think of. Then, I looked at what percentages of Gold would actually hit the open market and then built a picture of what the market might look like given the financial turmoil and Gold taking a fear-buying centrepiece. The $134k assumes a conservative 3% Globally Managed Funds chasing physical, 2% Bond fund stability, 2% M3 fund stability….it’s a long list.

“They make me very suspicious of the motives!”

Everyone talks their own book.

“It's particularly harmful to encourage those who are desperate and without income to go "all in" with remaining capital on the basis of "becoming fabulously wealthy" after a reset. It's one thing to preserve wealth and quite another to gamble.”

I don’t give financial advice, I tell people my opinion as to what I believe is going on, what I’m doing (on occasion) and where I think it will take me and us collectively…no mention of go out and buy, from me.

“I can also say that any major war, biological calamity, or starvation though failed infrastructure, causing mass deaths, will reduce the number of people vying for gold and therefore the demand/price equation. If that is already factored into your "$134,000", then how many are you predicting to die off?”

I don’t believe I’ve ever stated that we will go to war…I think I stated once that I believe we won’t. When I have written about “die off”, I’m talking about Holdren’s Ecoscience population stability.

As for my $134,000/oz figure, that’s not something new; I’ve been saying that for a while now.

“Oh, and where can I get me one of them crystal ball thingies like yours?”

Same place everyone else who has stated their belief in what might/will happen…out of their arse.

“Please stay level-headed, TSP. I didn't work to get you un-banned for nothing!”

Was that you? I was perplexed as to what happened there. A Shazam moment perhaps?...but Thanks!

“level-headed”….ummm, when have I ever been that?

$134,000 Gold:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-06/what-gold-standard#comment-3536504
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-26/guest-post-whom-believe-gold-central-banks-or-bloomberg#comment-3380451
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-06/guest-post-number-1-problem-when-owning-gold#comment-3307416
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-04/cyprus-shock-turns-anger#comment-3411130
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-26/if-reflections-precious-metals#comment-3504874
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-08/next-domino-australia-doubles-tax-retirement-savings#comment-3424924

PS. Hope your knees get better.
PPS. I created the blog as my posts were getting too lengthy and if I had an opinon which the Swiss don't like, it's not on their server.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 10:09 | 3587581 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

What if the miners just get together and decide to double the price they now charge......no one would buy gold ???

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 09:39 | 3587398 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

If you leverage up with the hope that it will go to 134K, that would be gambling. If you are paying cash for physical delivery, you are buying the financial equivalent of life insurance. The dollar will fail and you and I will die. If you refrain from buying physical in the hopes that the dollar will not fail in your lifetime that is gambling and unless you have a terminal illness, the odds get worse every QE day.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:51 | 3586911 Room 101
Room 101's picture

$134,000?  Why not $375,000?  Or let's really shoot the moon and say $4,600,000,000,000 toz!

It's absurd.  When and very much if you see PMs for those sorts of prices, bread and milk will be priced comparatively.   

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 08:38 | 3587179 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

You do realise that Gold isn't going to be available soon. That those whom own it or control it do not need to sell it for financial reasons and that there is huge benefit in holding it for capital support. That it will take in excess of 67 years to double current above ground reserves, if that's even possible given ore grades and deposits?

Are you even aware that the current financial system is now in the process of failing to support itself, let alone the debt loads?

Have you considered the possibility that QE is merely there to feed the Primary lenders, so as to compensate them for the erosion of value and decrease in performance of Public Assets (Government Bonds) on their books?

The list of issues is seemingly endless!

bread and milk will be priced comparatively”…to prevent that is precisely why they will need to let Gold fly.

You will need to let go of the past if you’re ever going to assess the current situation in its true form. There is no precedence from the past which you can measure the current situation.

By my calculations, just to heal the spread between Base Money (Bank Reserves + money in circulation) against Bank Assets/Liabilities, would come at a $13,000/oz price tag for Gold.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 08:45 | 3587204 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

And you obviously didn't count in the shadow-banks dark pools ....

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 08:57 | 3587251 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

No, I didn't. I can only give estimates on sectors I know about. I can only assume they are significant in size.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 09:13 | 3587316 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Good decision to stay with what you know. But the Tyler's denoted it for us:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-18/global-shadow-banking-system-ri...

Shows you were right, they are significant. ;-)

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 10:16 | 3587617 aerojet
aerojet's picture

The problem with that figure is that the crisis that would trigger gold to hit $13K is also self-correcting--you'll see war waged on a very large scale if/when that situation erupts.  Wars are the final manner in which bagholders are chosen.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 11:29 | 3587985 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

It was interesting to see Barrick as the lowest all-in cost, considering they are operating at a net loss right now.  

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:37 | 3586709 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

not to neglect the whole srsrocco energy theme about the future cost of sourcing/extracting/refining/transporting pm

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 07:20 | 3586997 resurger
resurger's picture

So what's the all in cost in the article? Cant go to page 2?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:22 | 3586566 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

@ Room 101

Pity that eigenvalue is so intelligent...  With a name like that I once asked him/her by Reply to let me know if s/he would comment on some Linear Algebra questions I had, an "eigenvalue" is a function of matrix algebra and is used all over the place in multivariate statistics and equations in general.  S/he declined, giving me some kind of lip.  Pity, I would still like to have people who are very good at math drop me a line about using "Factor Analysis" (for example) in analyzing sales data.  

I posted the below Factor Analysis of sales data from our bearing company (Peru), and a better knowledge of matrx algebra and statistics would have been very useful for me.  Would still be useful for the future...

http://tinyurl.com/bsjlho7

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:02 | 3586918 Room 101
Room 101's picture

I don't much care about linear algebra. Although you might.  I'm more interested in his/her underlying views on the metal markets, which I might note have been fairly accurate, albeit contrary to ZH orthodoxy.  I don't know what eigen does for a living but suspect it's metals trading or something similar.     

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 10:01 | 3587524 PT
PT's picture

Eigen said gold is going to zero.  But no-one has asked the obvious so I will.  Eigen:  Why do you say that gold will go to zero?

To my mind, when there is no food or water deliverable to your area, then indeed gold will go to zero.  But this may not be what Eigen is thinking.  What is your point, Eigen?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:14 | 3586381 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Zero? Zeeeerrro? When?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 04:15 | 3586855 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Maybe he can get rich shorting gold

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:16 | 3586889 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Goldman Sachs did...or did they not? lot of "wilding" going on there too. Drama, drama everywhere...here's the only guy that get's it in my view: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNremK0cBEg

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:04 | 3586920 Room 101
Room 101's picture

Who knows?  Maybe he/she already has.  Over the last couple of months that would been a pretty good bet.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 09:53 | 3587483 A is A
A is A's picture

Don't feed the troll!!!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 01:54 | 3586770 lickspitler
lickspitler's picture

MMM   those bitcoins looking strong and stable at the moment..... hey and what's their cost of production ?

So Gold has a 25% mark up wow, how desired.......not.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 09:08 | 3587301 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

LOL Doc...I just carved off my bonds a little, and bought more coins....clients love me.....

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:09 | 3586365 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"Hold your breath, you die."

-- Old Texas saying

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:19 | 3586402 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

That long, eh, DoChen?

Damn, I had a business card template all set to print. "Will Haul Off Your Gold, No Quantity Too Large."

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:09 | 3586366 Room 101
Room 101's picture

OK Eigen, we got it: gold and silver bugs die, die, die.

Now that we've dispensed with the foreplay, please dish.  What's your outlook?  

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:17 | 3586396 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

We may see more downside momentum. $20 and $1300 are likely to be taken out. 

Depreciation and amortisation don't impact the cash flow. Exploration can postponed. Gold and silver miners can linger on for a while even if the prices go below the total costs.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:24 | 3586413 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

$20/$1,300 are a LONG way from ZERO.   Your math is a little fuzzy there eigen...

If that's your bottom, I'll keep stacking.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:45 | 3586612 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

IMO, the downside risks of buying Au or Ag here are minimal, especially if you stack (strong hands and all).

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:20 | 3586892 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well if you sign over your gold mine to me for cost then "get those guys over there to run it...but it better be for 250 bucks and ounce and that's it" then in a way you got it for free...a STEAL as they say. already been done with a massive copper mine in Arizona...will it be done with a German steel mill in Alabama? how about the new steel mill going up in Arkanas?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:31 | 3586443 Room 101
Room 101's picture

Thanks lots.  Good point on depreciation and amortization.  What matters is the variable costs short term.  You have to cover fixed costs longer term, but in the short term you don't have to. 

I figured lower than 1300 on gold.  Why not 1000?   Psychological barrier?

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:33 | 3586702 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

What matters? LOL, good grief, you fuckers are dumb. Average cost per ounce is way above that.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:10 | 3586923 Room 101
Room 101's picture

And gee, you're an easily led sheep.  Read much about metals aside from the more notorious PM shills? Sorryfor presenting information that is contrary to your carefully constructed and maintained worldview.  Variable and fixed costs do matter.  And in a difficult business environment you can sell a product for more than your variable costs but less your allocated share of fixed costs.  You can't do that forever, but you can do it.   

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 08:03 | 3587082 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I've been called lots of things before but never a sheep.

And seeing that I'm posting here on ZH, I think you might be way off on that particular call.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 11:35 | 3588005 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I actually see the USD price of gold going well below $1K.  And I'm hopeful there will still be some idiots left selling phys at that price.  

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:36 | 3586456 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If you are so sure that $20 and $1300 will be taken out then sell naked calls and get rich.  

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 11:38 | 3588009 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Again, the central bank play is:

Buy phys

Short paper

Pretty easy trade to piggyback with limited risk via GLD puts (combined with regular phys buys).  We all know GLD isn't backed by anything anyways.  

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:50 | 3586490 worldtraveler
worldtraveler's picture

Yes, $1300 makes sense - let's be patient...

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:17 | 3586552 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Can you tell me where I canbuy some of that $20 silver?  The real stuff, not slv.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:19 | 3586926 Room 101
Room 101's picture

The price of paper or phyzz is not $20.  Spot is $22.68 as of when I'm typing this.  You can get phyzz for about a 5-6% premium above that for bullion. And contrary to the tinfoil hat prognostications so frequently seen here, you can buy and take possession of all you can afford. 

https://comparesilverprices.com/

Wait a month or two and you may well see Ag for $20.  Or less. PM's are a leading indicator.  I personally expect to see it break the $20 mark (spot) and go to the upper teens in the short to medium term.  Longer term I'm very bullish. 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:49 | 3586909 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

I'd agree that the PAPER price of gold will go to zero just as paper currency will go to zero. When financial calamity ensues I bet you'll be able to buy a decent suit for an ounce of gold. You see Eigie, you're brainwashed by paper, fiat and false promises. Fiat is measured against gold, not the other way around. If gold goes to zero dollars what you are essentially implying that paper money is no longer relevant.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 11:52 | 3588078 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

A suit would be the first thing I'd want to trade my long-held precious in times of global turmoil, LOL.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 09:09 | 3587305 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

yeah.........taken out...on a Sunday surprise douchebag spike down.....sure....possible.....

 

margin rules.....until it blows....

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:25 | 3586415 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

He just wants us to die so he can steal all the fillings and crowns from our teeth.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:47 | 3586948 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Didn't some unpleasant people do that back in the 1940's? How did that work out?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:45 | 3586942 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

This troll gets off on down arrows, feed it at your own risk.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 07:14 | 3586986 resurger
resurger's picture

you want to hate us and hate us, what can we do for you sir?

Have a nice day.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:05 | 3586354 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

Perfect timing. I was trying to explain this to someone today and wished I had a picture

Thanks VC & TD

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:08 | 3586358 brown_hornet
brown_hornet's picture

How much does a gold golf ball weigh?

And will it cure my slice?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:40 | 3586428 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

It is not a gold golf ball that you get from 9.39  tons of dirt - it is the weight of one standard golf ball.  That weight is 49.8 grams (5.3 grams of gold per ton times 9.39 tons of dirt).  Why such an arbitrary weight as that of a golf ball is used in the article, I will never know.

A gold golf ball will weigh 828.9 grams or 1.83 lbs.

 

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:49 | 3586486 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

A gold golf ball will weigh 828.9 grams or 1.83 lbs.

 

I want one of those!!! Also quite sure it will make gold more popular in Japan and Korea..

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:22 | 3586564 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Yeah, but good luck driving one 300 yards with a TaylorMade R1...

 

 [It may make gold more popular in Japan, but not golf

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:27 | 3586573 knukles
knukles's picture

Holy shit, Shark...
No wonder I like both so much... they're only one letter apart!

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:58 | 3586504 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Used to be % of ounce per ton of ore, i.e. .18, .20 oz per ton, but now a days it's spoken of in grams per ton.  At ~ 31 grams per ounce, 5.3 = ore at ~.17 ounce per ton.  Most open pit ore in NV is far less rich and requires the processing of far greater quantities of material.  Interesting that it's still the least expensive in comparison. 

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:08 | 3586364 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

For such a barbaric relic they sure go through a lot of trouble getting it out of the ground.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:11 | 3586375 seek
seek's picture

Interesting the Barrick is cheapest by far. Weren't they the ones suspected of laundering gold for the Japanese?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:43 | 3586605 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I don't like the miners (as a buy), especially Barrick.

I do my mining at the LCS!

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:19 | 3586401 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am a big fan or the miners. I am also a big fan of punching myself in the face while kicking myself in the balls.they seem to go together so seamlessly.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:26 | 3586419 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Chin up Fonz... nobody ever said it was going to be pretty.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:30 | 3586438 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

absolutely right. to be honest my concern is not about how valuable these miners truly are, it's whether there will be a marketplace to participate in when their true value is discovered.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:41 | 3586468 kito
kito's picture

It's funny to think that Richard Branson is working so hard to fly to the moon and Ben already has the DOW through the upper atmosphere........

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:44 | 3586474 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

The higher the price, the more dangerous the mining, until it can't be mined anymore.

Buy now, while supplies last.

Meanwhile, the state can kiss my ass.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:32 | 3586447 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

to be fair ABX looks undervalued right now. but then again. never catch a falling knive :(

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:36 | 3586708 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

ABX is run by people no better than Dimon and Blankfein. A den of theives...

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 11:44 | 3588037 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Buying a book entry of common stock of a company that mines materials that are heavily shorted by big players in USD terms, is undervalued?  

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:33 | 3586449 espirit
espirit's picture

Fonz, if eigendummys forecast is correct at least we'll have another shot stacking at lower prices.  Maybe by then the premiums will have come down.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:44 | 3586473 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

+1 for 'eigendummy'

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:56 | 3586499 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Ah, The miners. I bleed from the rectum, but hope springs eternal.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 01:55 | 3586772 Dr o love
Dr o love's picture

Ok, I get the punching myself in the face idea...  Been there, done that.  But, how do I go about kicking myself in the balls?  I need to know since I too am a fan and owner of a number of miners.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:27 | 3586427 lesamourai
lesamourai's picture

I like the general colour of the whole info-graphic thingy.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:33 | 3586448 kito
kito's picture

If one looks at gold as money.....wouldn't the cost of mining be irrelevant????

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:35 | 3586454 espirit
espirit's picture

Gold is money, all the rest is fiatsco.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:40 | 3586713 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Actually, only money is money, all the rest is simply what the next person is willing to pay for, in fiat *take your pick)

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:23 | 3586682 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"If one looks at gold as money.....wouldn't the cost of mining be irrelevant????"

No kito, that's where the value lies: you know that the work has already been done.

Now, if you're suggesting that those costs should be paid in gold, I've always got my eye out for a new opportunity....

Any minerz offering golden gilded dividendz?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:39 | 3586711 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

The only thing that determines cost of something is what the next person is willing AND able to pay for it. Mining costs mean nothing AND gold is not money, money is used to buy and sell gold.  

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:48 | 3586724 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There are a lot of eastern nations who would disagree with that train of thought.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 04:18 | 3586856 akak
akak's picture

Well, I can't help but notice that world central banks, whose foundational assets traditionally consist of money, DO hold gold but do NOT ever hold cotton, lumber, copper or wheat.  Care to explain that situation to us?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:30 | 3586897 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well if they did that they might actually represent a threat to Wall Street. i mean "tax free bond deal...biggest in history by far" does stand out to me in the realm of "sticking it to the man." at a certain level though this whole DC/NY thing is starting to look like fight club on steroids actually. "they get to stick back too." WSJ reporting considering a RICO suit versus SAC. that would be interesting. "gangam style."

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 11:50 | 3588073 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Interesting too that the US, Canada, Australia, and South Africa, representing the large majority of production, are all British Crown Corporations.  

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 22:40 | 3586460 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The cash costs noted do not include all the CAPEX; exploration, drilling, country fees and licenses; royalties, etc.  The true marginal accounting cost is somewhere between $1200-$1400/oz.  Many gold producers, at current prices, has shelved projects; curtailed drilling and exploration.  If these prices continue for 6 months, many will go under, or be bought on the cheap by the banksters.  Maybe that was the plaan all along.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:27 | 3586574 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

+ 1

That is my understanding as well, total production costs are around and average of $1200 / oz I have read in various places.  As an above relier wrote, the downside risks seem very limited to me buying physical gold at around the $1370 or so where we are now.

Especially if you stack!

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:33 | 3586583 knukles
knukles's picture

But not if those central banks start dumping the excess product on the market, undercutting the producers having to bring in anti-dumping complaints against them to the World Trade Thingamajiggie, right?
Sorta like Chinese solar panels, right?
I mean they'd never do that, would they?

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:41 | 3586603 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"I mean they'd never do that, would they?"

OF COURSE they never would..., uh, I, uh, think.....

I'm trying to think long-term here...   :)

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:31 | 3586898 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"I order you to get it out of the ground for 250 an ounce."

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:47 | 3586947 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

one fact seems important in this debate: why do Banks hold tons of gold? why do they build expensive vaults to hold it, when moving it they provide massive security..that is why one should own gold, the very money masteers of the world have shown you by example.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:17 | 3586551 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I wonder how much gold is extracted every year by wildcat minders.  There are millions of little operations going on all over the world.  These are one man, two man, hundred man gold extraction operations both legal and illegal.  Wildcatters glean everything from a few grams up to ounces a day when they're lucky.  They wallow in filth, immerse themselves in Mercury, get eaten by mosquitoes, and get shot at by governments and natives all the time. 

 

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:30 | 3586576 knukles
knukles's picture

I like that wallowing in Mercury visual....

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:39 | 3586697 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

You're talking about "fossickers". My neighbour is one. Actually, it's quite convenient. He's no Mad Hatter yet, he's.... oh alright he's looks like the bearded spawn of Carrot Top and Sandrah Bernhard aged to professor Farnsworth: he's messed up, but I can tell that it's not just the mercury.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 04:40 | 3586866 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

In Ghana- the estimate is that artisanal and small scale mining has risen from about 1/10 to almost 1/4 of production since the turn of the century.

But small scale mining is a traditional industry in Ghana, and there is significant supporting infrastructure that has been built up over many years since Ghana was the Gold Coast in colonial times, and before if we want to go all the way back to Mansa Musa for examples (however, that infrastructure also makes Ghana a hub for gold smuggling from neighboring countries in West Africa, so I wouldn't hold those estimates up as gospel). 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:56 | 3586915 KashNCarry
KashNCarry's picture
'Gold, Guns and Garimpeiros: France Battles Wildcat Miners in French Guiana' http://bit.ly/14Qgagx 'Open Pit' http://bit.ly/16NHoZp
Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:36 | 3586591 TheObsoleteMan
TheObsoleteMan's picture

If "they" can drive POG down, and KEEP IT DOWN to say $1200+ an ounce, while driving up energy cost, the miners will be forced into halting operations and suspending mining activities. Is this their plan?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 02:01 | 3586776 Dr o love
Dr o love's picture

Doesn't really matter if they drive the price of mining gold to the point that it is no longer mined (temporarily).  All that would do is cause the price of already-mined gold to skyrocket, thereby making mining profitable once more.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 03:23 | 3586826 TheObsoleteMan
TheObsoleteMan's picture

Not necessarily. As much as I hate to admit it, THEY SET THE PRICES. It has been over two years now, and gold is still under $1650. How many trillions have been printed {created} since April 2011? It is not reflected in the POG. Silver is in a even worse predicament. Who is going to stop them? They hold all of the cards. Whenever they get into a losing situation, THEY CHANGE THE RULES TO FAVOR THEM. Don't believe me? Ask the Hunt Brothers {the one that is still living}. It's their game. What you or I would go to prison over, they get bonuses for. It's a sick, distorted, manipulated system, but again I ask: WHO IS GOING TO STOP THEM?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 04:32 | 3586860 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Intense physical buying will temporaryly slow them down. Then they will have to make it illegal to own which cause the price to go even higher.

Moral of the story; Take your physical out of the US and a few other countries.

Other solutions: Become a jewelery maker 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 07:08 | 3586975 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

They will stop themselves when they decide to switch trades.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 11:55 | 3588094 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I don't want them to stop.  Self-immolation is the natural consequence if they continue.  By all means, push the price below $1K, I will gladly buy.

Tue, 05/21/2013 - 23:59 | 3586642 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

From the graph and info provided Africa makes up approx 30% of world gold deposits.
South Africa the main producer has a lot of security problems for the mining companies, a lot of unrest due to mine safety and working conditions and demands for wage increases.
I have first hand recent experience of West Africa ( niger, mali and burkino ) where the canadian companies like Samira have a strong foothold in gold production. For sure the unstable political climate (france in mali recently, niger also ) the security costs will be huge and with all those bazooka joes kindly provided by mr obama ( left overs from libya being sold on all these borders you can be certain supply and costs will relect down for the former and way up for the latter.
Keep stacking gold and silver folks and do not be put of from clowns who could not point to africa on a world map.
P.S. This is why i am reluctant to hold mining stocks ( even though they appear way too low ) as in any given day, week or month who knows what will happen at these mines.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:16 | 3586667 Arius
Arius's picture

again, that SOROS guy might know smt more ... since he has bought recently big time on junior gold mines call options, but what do i know, i go with the bashing ...

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:34 | 3586902 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

South Africa is a train wreck. will European forces be back in there sometime soon? hard telling but that rand sure has gotten wacked.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:12 | 3586659 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Anybody looking for financing, if they can get, will be required to hedge? Which would be the irony of all ironies... the juniors are gonna get dilluted with full warrants

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:17 | 3586671 Arius
Arius's picture

you are not SOROS guy spreading disinformation are you?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:16 | 3586668 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Seems like it would be a lot cheaper just to declare war on some country that holds a lot of gold, defeat them, walk in and take it -

Hey, wait...

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:33 | 3586705 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

the US is and has been entirely too vaginal to do such a thing. Had we, gasoline would be $.25 a gallon and we would be strip mining Iraq and Afghanistan and Germany and Japan and Italy, and well.. pretty much anyplace we wanted.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:36 | 3586903 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Mali actually...

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:28 | 3586690 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

More nonsense, the cost of mining gold is basically 3 parsts. Labor, Equipment, Land.  Labor is at an all time low. The lower the price of gold , the lower the cost of the equipment to mine it. and finally - Land. Land varies so wildly in cost that we can leave it out of the equation completely.  Therefore, the cost of gold really has gone nowhere and is going nowhere fast.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 03:21 | 3586807 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Umm, fuel?

also, most of the equipment isn't goldmine-specific so I can't imagine the price will decline much.  Parts will cost the same regardless.   Finally, mining increases the aboveground supply by less than 2% per year so the price at which mining is profitable has negligible influence on the short-term price of gold.  This highly inelastic supply/demand curve means that gold is money that even the miners can't hyperinflate. 

Suppose it cost $5 to dig gold out of the ground.  After 10 years of exploration, permits, etc, let's say that mine production more than doubled.  Aboveground gold supplies would still only increase at 4% per year.  Real interest rates in the West are below MINUS 4% (and there is also the risk of getting Cyprused, Corzined, etc.) so gold would still be better than money in the system.  This is why gold will beat paper in the long run.  Gold is down now because the banksters know that if they are going to default, they might as well default big so they can walk away with more real wealth.  Wait until it becomes widely known that the banksters sold their customers' last ounce 100x over.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:48 | 3586723 SqueekyFromm
SqueekyFromm's picture

20 Million TONS of Gold!

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/gold.html

 

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 00:57 | 3586734 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

From your article,

"Currently, there really isn’t a cost-effective way to mine or extract gold from the ocean to make a profit".

You are so incredibly stupid it's hard to even respond to your pathetic bullshit.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 01:05 | 3586740 SqueekyFromm
SqueekyFromm's picture

BPigs:

No, I am just positing non-traditional hypothetical gold supply scenarios. You see, the Gold Bugs are always posting about the possibility that physical gold is going to become super hard to get because of miner's strikes, Chinese purchases, government seizures here and there, etc. etc. etc. ad nauseum. Therefore people should rush out and buy the stuff, no matter what the price, because THE WORLD MIGHT RUN OUT OF GOLD!!!

Don't you think it fair to occasionally imagine the opposite occurring??? That gold becomes very abundant. Then, people who have paid $1,500 an ounce more or less, will be sitting there like schmucks.

Meditate on it.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 01:27 | 3586755 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, and you make absolutely no sense. Your argument is neither rational nor logical unless the price of gold goes up dramatically (like thousands of dollars an ounce). Gold is not abundant. It is rare, and difficult to mine. Especially underwater at the depths of the ocean. Do you have any idea WTF you are talking about on this?

All I ever hear out of you on gold is just moar fucking bullshit.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 03:24 | 3586809 SqueekyFromm
SqueekyFromm's picture

BPigs:

Eau Contraire! I am just telling the truth. Go back just at ZH and see how many of the "There's a shortage of gold!!!" articles there are. Which, if it was, one would think the price would be soaring what with all the Asians and Gold Bugs who just can't get enough of it.

BUT, the price has been falling which indicates that maybe more and more people are asking themselves, "WTF am I doing sitting here with this dumb hunk of shiny metal which don't do nothing but worry the crap out of me, when I could convert it to cash, and go buy something fun, or useful, or likely to increase in value???"

Which, would increase the supply of it, and drive the price down, as we are seeing. You Gold Bugs need to think out of the box a little, and instead of sitting around in your underground lairs, like a bunch of goblins, eating roots and gnawing on old bones, obsessing about getting rich on gold, ask your selves what it would look like if MORE gold was available not less, and what the effect would be on price.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:38 | 3586905 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I like you. would you like to fly with me in my asteroid collector space ship?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 12:13 | 3588199 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"I am just telling the truth."

You stated that there is a bunch of gold that is economically non-viable to extract from the ocean.  That is the truth you stated.  Thank you for once again confirming that the cost of production is important when forecasting supply/demand in a product.  As for the ad hominem attacks, I'm not sure what the point of that was (apart from just being a dumbass troll).  

Read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold

Especially:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold#Seawater

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 02:37 | 3586799 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

While you're down there, please pump up some oil too. That would be really useful in a non-traditional, hypothetical sort of way.

 

Disclaimer: Long Krugerrands at £350, looking to buy more at that price.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 03:44 | 3586846 The Abstraction...
The Abstraction of Justice's picture

'That gold becomes very abundant.'

 

Subsitute 'promises' for 'gold' and you the fact.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:48 | 3586951 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Supposin' Supposin' 3 men are frozen One dies how many are left? 2 maybe but we are only supposing! Detailed Airbourne Geometric Survey conducted over Planet. Exposing the Quality easy to mine gold/ other minerals. 3 million ounces proven considered world class mine. 10 years ago a mine of 10g/tonne economically viable re price of gold. Today due to price increase juniors exploiting 1.5g/tonne in areas remote hilly unsuitable terrain where even getting water let alone trenching or drill rigs could be difficult.
For example Hummingbird Resources of UK in Sierra leonne. 8 years in and a lot of city investors money spend they need some real luck to find a rich vein( or a huge price hike) and not the current sparcely dotted outcrops ( i hope they do as i know the father who has refinery in birmingham, uk. Betts metals 250 +years family business.
Check out their website, fascinating 9 generation of family circa 1760( betts metals.co.uk ). Now these folks aint stupid like you!!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 02:41 | 3586803 aaliyah
aaliyah's picture

Digital Flow Meters : Spiremt.com provides all types of digital flow meters, heating meters, portable and handheld flow meters, water meters etc. at affordable price.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 03:29 | 3586839 Hengist
Hengist's picture

One thing you don't know is that there is still a lot of Gold in western Europe to be mined in places like North Wales but environmental regulations make it uneconomic to mine, and having been down one of those mines you are not talking moving tons of rock to get at a few flecks of gold but gold veins as thick as your small finger been there seen it myself.  Another game changer is mining black smoker thermal vent fields off the coast of Papua New Guinea expensive but could prove economic as the minerals you get are also useful by products such as copper and zinc.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 04:12 | 3586854 squexx
squexx's picture

Gold.....schmold! I want diamonds! The Jews wouldn't lie about them being rare, now would they?!?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 05:39 | 3586906 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

that would be the English actually.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:22 | 3586928 Blind
Blind's picture

Everyone is saying Soros is buying call options on the GDXJ. I checked the Form13F, could it be a short call instead of a long call? Does anyone know?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 06:52 | 3586954 sandblaster
sandblaster's picture

Gold - is there anything better to hold and look at late at night when you are by yourself?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 07:15 | 3586988 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The currency price of gold is misleading and is part of the reason why some misinformed people are predicting $10,000 plus gold per oz.

Gold's "price "in my mind must always be monitored in terms of value relative to other key items such as oil, agricultural products, housing etc. To do otherwise is insane. For example, Cypriot Euros were haircut by up to 90% but that does not mean that gold is now worth 90% more.

The attempt to link gold price to the explosion of money due to printing is neither here nor there unless that printing translates to a general increase in the price of goods and services.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 07:20 | 3586998 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1 broadly agree (except for the "Cypriot Euros" part)

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 07:22 | 3587000 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

peter, printing more paper fiat, could that have an effect on value? such as germany 1929? perhaps there are other effects such as trust in the paper? what say U?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 07:26 | 3587004 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I say that after the German HY the consensus was that it took 18 months between printing and prices rising

but of course they had no megabank and shadow banking deleveraging going on, something that delays further the effects from the causes

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 08:53 | 3587229 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Yes, I agree with you both. Read my last sentence where I say "unless........"

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