This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Deleveraging, Releveraging And Finding The New Saturation Point

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by F.F.Wiley of Cyniconomics blog,

Do you need a break from public policy buzzwords? Are you happy to go back to the days when cliffs were discussed occasionally on the National Geographic channel but not analyzed ad nauseum on CNBC? Are you tired of reading about austerity, austerians, anti-austerians and austeresis?

 

Okay, I may have made up the last one, but you’ve come to the right place.

Well, sort of.

I won’t do away with buzzwords altogether, but I’ll recycle an old one that’s faded from public discussion. Before cliff took its new meaning and austerity spawned a new branch of etymology, we had deleveraging.

It wasn’t that far back that everyone wanted to know: How much longer will deleveraging constrain growth? And the presumption seemed to be that deleveraging was a good thing. Most people agreed on these two points:

  1. With debt having reached a saturation point during the housing boom, deleveraging needs to occur.
  2. The economy will be on a stronger footing once it’s behind us.

Today, it still seems reasonable to ask how much longer deleveraging will play out. But after four years of painfully slow expansion, we should start by asking how much progress has been made. Is deleveraging well on its way, just getting started, or somewhere in between?

Or, as stated in the Length Fallacy Challenge that I introduced in March (see diagram): How long have we been deleveraging?

length match 5a

As in the other articles in the Challenge, I’ll share data that helps to answer the question, and then I’ll choose from the options on the right-hand-side. In later articles, I’ll explain how the answers tie together and offer my interpretation on what they mean for our economy.

Tracking economy-wide debt from the Great Recession to today

To keep it simple, my charts consider only three points in time:

  • December 2007 (the beginning of the Great Recession)
  • June 2009 (the end of the Great Recession)
  • December 2012 (the most recent data)

Chart 1 shows that households and nonfinancial businesses reduced their aggregate debt from 175% of GDP in December 2007 to 163% in December 2012. But this fall in private sector borrowing was more than offset by increased government borrowing. Total debt for households, nonfinancial businesses and government is now significantly higher than it was at the start of the Great Recession. It jumped by 19% of GDP while the recession was underway and then edged up another 6% through December 2012, for a total gain of 25%.

(This is a slightly bigger increase than you would find if you worked with only the Federal Reserve’s oft-cited Flow of Funds Accounts, with the difference explained by the government category. The Fed’s total excludes IOUs awarded to government trust funds – following the precedent set by the Office of Management and Budget – even though these IOUs fit every reasonable definition of debt, as I discussed here. I’ve added the IOUs back into the totals.)

deleveraging 1

If we relied on these figures alone, we would say the economy has more debt than it did five years ago.

But what about the financial sector, which isn’t included in the first chart?

Financial institutions have clearly reduced leverage since the end of the housing boom, primarily by cutting back shadow banking. As shown in Chart 2, their debt fell from 116% of GDP in December 2007 to 88% in December 2012.

deleveraging 2

Once again, though, the drop in private debt is at least partially offset by the public sector. And the public sector is comprised of the one bank that the Fed doesn’t include in its financial sector totals: Itself. In other words, the most powerful bank of all.

Now, you may question my aggregation of the Fed’s liabilities with private bank debt, on the basis that the Fed doesn’t issue traditional debt when expanding its balance sheet. But the Fed’s increasing leverage is every bit as powerful as traditional debt issuance, and more, since it allows private banks to increase their leverage. The excess bank reserves that the Fed creates out of thin air are economically similar to callable loans. They even pay interest these days.

The Fed’s balance sheet expansion has lessened but hasn’t prevented a drop in financial sector leverage, which is now lower than it was at any time in the Great Recession. But from the first chart, we saw that debt for the rest of the economy is now higher than it was during the Great Recession. This leaves us one more step: adding up the figures from the two charts.

Here are the totals across all sectors:

deleveraging 3

I can see two possible interpretations for Chart 3. The first is that debt fell after the end of the Great Recession, and therefore, the economy has slowly deleveraged. The deleveraging began in the fourth quarter of 2009, and since then, debt fell at an average annual rate of 6% of GDP. This interpretation is mildly encouraging, but I don’t agree with it.

Consider that the leverage added during the Great Recession is almost entirely explained by public policies, including unprecedented amounts of peacetime deficit spending and central bank balance sheet expansion. And that these public policies were intended as emergency and temporary measures. At least, that was the story at the time and it remains so today, even though both the government’s deficit and the Fed’s balance sheet are still abnormally large.

What I’m saying is that the economy hasn’t fundamentally deleveraged by simply reversing the jump in debt during the Great Recession. That increase in debt was reactive and intended to be short-lived. A better test is whether debt is lower today than it was when we hit the wall at the start of the recession. The last chart shows that it’s not.

Finding the new saturation point

According to this second interpretation, the discussion about deleveraging is far from over. Debt reached its saturation point in 2007, and we resolved that predicament by pushing the saturation point higher, which is what happens when you replace private with public borrowing.

Today, we’re relying more than ever on the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government – the last line of defense when it comes to preserving our hugely levered economy. We’ve made room to take on more debt, but we don’t know how much room.

I’ll put it in Hollywood terms by taking you back to the 1979 classic, Alien (but don’t click on the links if you’re squeamish):

You’re standing with Warrant Officer Ripley (Sigourney Weaver) and the rest of the Nostromo’s crew and you’ve just had your first encounter with the “facehugger” alien. That was the global financial crisis. You’re now recovering and planning your next move. The alien’s still out there, you just don’t know exactly where it is and in what form.  In other words, the next crisis could be worse.  (But you’re hoping the alien doesn’t reappear in the same way as the facehugger’s spawn.)

I know, overdramatic, but it seems to fit. And you have to admit:  If there were an alien version of the financial sector, or at least our too-big-to-fail banks, the facehugger might be it.

In other articles in this series, I’m taking a shot at locating the alien, by estimating the point where public debt reaches saturation.  (See here, for example.)

length match 5

 

But getting back to the question, “How long have we been deleveraging?” – I’ll answer “zero years.” As in, what deleveraging? We haven’t even gotten started yet.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 05/22/2013 - 19:43 | 3589841 Rincewind
Rincewind's picture

The amount of debt in the system can never go down. Who cares where the debt is held. Unless we get rid of debt money, there will never be any deleveraging.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 19:58 | 3589871 spine001
spine001's picture

We have not been deleveraging, just redistributing the debt so that it can be handled. The system would not have tolerated a debt reduction. It is like any Ponzi scheme, while the free cash flow it generates is enough to pay the interest it owes, nobody cares if the capital will be returned since credit will be renewed. The problem starts when the risk that free cash flow is not enough to keep on paying interest becomes obvious to the players, then it is a game of who gets out first...

Monetization to allow redistribution has been the name of the game, but that game can not be won without economic growth to increase free cash flows. The fundamental assumpion error of central bankers is that moentization rather than enabling real growth is offering a lower risk higher NPV financial project to all investors, even those on the real economy than investments in the real economy. Therefore, it is achieving the opposite result than the desired growth one.

The fact that the HUMONGOUS budget deficits being run worlwide are ill spent money rather than growth oriented money, like in the time of Roosevelt, is worsening things.

Until next time,

Engineer

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 21:06 | 3590140 Raynja
Raynja's picture

The problem starts when the risk that free cash flow is not enough to keep on paying interest becomes obvious to the players, then it is a game of who gets out first...

 

Altho it can happen that way, with ZIRP, it is likely that instead it will be the day someone realizes that they cannot get there principal back, but you are very correct on the speed of it happening, the wsj had a good article the other day comparing the euro to argentina and how fast public opinion changed and the situation melted down like a snowfall in October. 

 

On your point about CB's, they are criminal and amoral, but they have done their job as perfectly as could be hoped; they have managed market participants expectaions.  A CB has no power to do anything except counterfeit money and manage expectations, many a central banker will tell you that managing expectaions is their main, if not only goal, yet people like to think they are free to make personal decisions about the free market based on rational expectaions concerning others using efficient market theory with the CB worrying about inflation and unemployment.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 23:09 | 3590611 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

This system is clearly held together by nothing more than human sentiment ... and that is fickle.  It is like a huge pool of super-cooled water.  One tiny precipitating event and it will all be over in an instant. The collapse of Tunisia came about because of a lowly food cart vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi. A trigger happy Guardsman at Kent State caused the Presidency to fail.  Just wait.  We will see our precipitating event and it will be a big surprise. Not.

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 19:46 | 3589847 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I recommend Leveraging on the Trigger mechanism of a Guillotine (or equivalent), until the Saturation Point has been reached.  -Robespierre.  If he were alive today.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 19:48 | 3589851 max2205
max2205's picture

Deleverage?  Are you a fucking terrorist? 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 23:52 | 3590736 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

release the drones!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 19:53 | 3589862 Hohum
Hohum's picture

We deleverage, we collapse.  End of story, unless nuclear fusion comes along.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 20:41 | 3590046 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....the most interesting thing I've read today. One of my friends worked on the SHIVA project for years at Lawrence / Livermore.....close, but no cigar on controlled fusion.

 

If this process from Rossi were to work, it would be an amazingly large black swan landing in our midst.

Wed, 05/29/2013 - 14:35 | 3608141 flacorps
flacorps's picture

Golden swan

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 23:53 | 3590741 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

I actually found myself wondering if cold fusion had been discovered the other day. The S&P 500 seems to be discounting that at this level. 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 19:55 | 3589867 flacorps
flacorps's picture

Consumer deleveraging has been mostly through defaults and subsequent chargeoffs. But all those debts are still lurking in the hands of junk debt buyers, and they'll bite again in court, or when unsuspecting debtors enter the homebuying process unaware that JDBs are trolls extorting payment to cross that life bridge.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 20:00 | 3589886 spine001
spine001's picture

Absolutely true, and that is why they can not do mark to market accounting. The insolvency would become way too obvious. But the key is free cash flow. And it is going down in real terms for nearly everybody. As the system collapses on itself, the ineptitude of our leaders to get us out of this mess is becoming more and more obvious, and their pathetic attempts at doing something are only making things worse, like QE.

Until next time,

Engineer

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 20:24 | 3589972 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I thought the purpose of "balance sheet transperance" from the Banks to the Fed was so the banks could both remain solvent and then should the economy recovery proceed then lend into that recovery thus restoring profitability and furthering the process of "healing" or "growth." (if that's right don't ask me how I did that.) in other words sure..."there isn't a reset of the Great Ponzi"....but we still had the Great Recession. That's why I've become kinda agnostic on the whole ZIRP thingy. Growth has in fact been restored (albeit anemic) profitability in some sectors never really was impacted but in the other sectors has rebounded, equities have soared, debt has soared in value, real estate has recovered...the dollar is busting a move, gold is correcting downward, tax receipts are surging, Maria B is in the sack with me, etc.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 23:45 | 3590719 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Individuals can de-lever within the system but the system as a whole cannot de-lever without a scorched earth depression of unprecedented severity.
That's where we are now, anyone reading ZH knows this and is taking or has taken action. More Preparation time is possible but not guaranteed.

We are inching along a plateau of apparent prosperity built on a fraudulent monetary system. When the piper eventually gets paid it will be brutal for the unprepared.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 05:10 | 3591176 drunkchinaman
drunkchinaman's picture

It is on going, will be fun time. US will be ok but rest of the world will be pretty, ugly.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!