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Mortgage Applications Have Biggest May Collapse Since Financial Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It seems that the recent rise in interest rates, instead of the typical (pre-depression) behavioral tendency to make people nervous and rush to lock in low rates, has once again stalled any hope of an organic housing recovery occurring. While the reams of hard data show that the housing recovery remains a fast-money investment-driven enigma (here, here, and here) - as opposed to real confidence-driven house-buying; we are still told day after day that housing is the backbone of the economy (despite construction jobs languishing and affordability plunging again). The fact of the matter is that the last 2 weeks have seen mortgage applications plunge at their fastest rate for this time of year (a typically busy time) since the financial crisis began. But that doesn't matter because housing must be recovering because the homebuilder ETF is up 2% today...

 

January and February we saw the rate rises (blue line dropping) spark a renewed (more behaviorally normal) interest in locking in low rates and buying... but since then the relationshio has invferted once again as the Bernanke put on bonds has now found its way into the real world. The last 2 weeks have seen rates rise and mortgage apps plunge...

 

at the fastest rate for this time of year since the crisis began...

 

What could possibly go wrong?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:04 | 3588449 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

US consumer now has the DV01 sensitivity of an IR swap trader.

 

Thanks Ben.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:05 | 3588456 tsx500
tsx500's picture

BULLISH !!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:07 | 3588468 Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

Buy the coming dip?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:11 | 3588480 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Booming and recovering economy.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:12 | 3588488 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

what caused the markets to dive at 10:30am? bond, gold, oil, indexes...

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:15 | 3588503 seek
seek's picture

All Ben's fault. Look back on the story history here just a few hours -- there's multiple stories on Ben's speaking driving algos wild.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:25 | 3588530 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Don't tell me they were having a Ben-gasm.

Oh no, I'm about to Catch The Vapors.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 17:10 | 3589411 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

I'm sure apps are down because of the good weather

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:00 | 3588669 PiltdownMan
PiltdownMan's picture

Mortgage purchase applications have remained in a rut since 2010. Doesn't match up with house price increases. FAIL! See this guy's charts.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/05/22/existing-home-sales-rise-0-6-in-april-mortgage-applications-fall-bs-bernanke-speaks/

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:33 | 3588845 IPA
IPA's picture

My mom said I should buy a house because interest rates are starting to go back up and I should lock in a low rate. I told her one, they will not go up and two, if they do the price of the house will plummet, blank stare....

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:31 | 3589074 Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island
Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island's picture

I'd be giving you a blank stare too.  Interest rates jumped 200 bps today, so yeah, they are going up; the ass shot out of their chair at the mere mention of tapering.

Interest rate hikes are tied to inflation.  Inflation raises the asset-based valuations such as home values and building materials.

Not only are you going to be paying a higher interest rate, you'll also be paying more for your home.

There are many people here that believe in "the major crash" becasue of the FIAT and departation of currency value through expatriation and hard commodity backings.  I tend to agree with them but check this out --

What Tyler and many people (who wish to learn) have been discovering is that there are macro-mechanisms in place that prevent "the major crash" at least for now, and that America's economy is recovering faster than crashed euro economies.  I use the word "recovering" with tongue in cheek because there is more than enough data and charts showing that recovery is a 'cooking of the books' and a fabrication fueled by manipulation of markets.

It doesn't change the fact of the reality that we exist in.  You're probably paying $200 more a month in rent than you would for a mortgage for a better home, because rent indices have been jacked with bank lending restrictions and tighening caused by investor interest and TARP funds.

That, or your mom is telling you to buy a home becuase you're living in her basement.

By the way, India Pale Ale is a shitty style of beer.  It's over hopped and only fake beer aficiandos and hop-heads drink it because 'it puts hair on your chest.'

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:39 | 3589150 IPA
IPA's picture

Agree to disagree about the beer. 

If wages were increasing with inflation/interest rates, higher interest rates would not necessarily mean lower asset prices. The amount of money a normal person has to spend on a monthly payment does not necessary increase as interest rates increase, do how can the asset price increase?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:41 | 3589160 Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island
Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island's picture

Is that a statement or a question?  Either way, I have no idea what you just said.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:54 | 3589200 cpzimmon
cpzimmon's picture

Thank you for the beer critique.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 16:59 | 3589384 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

they just hiked PMI to crazy levels..  refi's will probably stall to a halt with the new rules (something like 11years for non-FHA and full duration of the loan for FHAs)

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 17:08 | 3589407 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

PMI is one of the few market forces still at work in the residential RE market.  If this "recovery" was real why are the mortgage insurers leveleling up for anticipated losses?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 18:04 | 3589536 Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island
Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island's picture

It's low rate compensation for risk factor.  They aren't "leveleling up" <-- (whatever that is) for anticipated losses.  This isn't a video game.  It's economics.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 18:02 | 3589532 Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island
Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island's picture

I think you're confused with PMI and FHA's MI.

 

  PMI is Private mortgage insurance -- it's a lender-friendly policy through Radian or RMIC or any other insurance corporation to protect the lender in the case of default.  The margins on PMI haven't changed in realtion to their guarantee coverages.

  Now, FHA has hiked their Ginnie enforced mandatory MI, as well as the UFMIP -- is that what you're talking about?

 

  Lot of ignorance in here.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 17:07 | 3589398 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

"You're probably paying $200 more a month in rent than you would for a mortgage for a better home"

How can you make such a statement with anything close to accuracy?  SFH own/rent metrics vary WILDLY from region to region.  Not to mention the risk of locking yourself into any property in this job market.  You over simplify qwuite a bit.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 18:00 | 3589529 Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island
Jekyll_n_Hyde_Island's picture

This was quoted from the FRB news release on market conditions regarding rent to mortgage ratios across the US. 

 Armchair pundits and thread critics can throw any statment through a vernacular shredder.  Reality is what it is folks, stop fighting it.

 

   30 year fixed mortgage on a $200,000 home PITI @ 3.5% -- ostensibly $1100.00

 

  Rent on a 4 bedroom 2 bath home at $200,000 in median market $1325.00

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 18:31 | 3589636 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

$200K for a 4 bedroom 2 bath house!!!!! come on dude, you're killing me here! i couldn't get a studio condo for that!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:04 | 3588450 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Blame the good weather.  Everyone is at the park with their dogs when they should be applying for mortgages.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:15 | 3588504 max2205
max2205's picture

Rates need to be MOAR LOWER...come on Ben, don't be so CHEAP!!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:27 | 3588545 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture

Easy fix for housing, push 30 year mortgage rates to -2% and let it pay itself off.  Leaves a lot of extra muney to buy ishit.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:04 | 3588452 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Bullish!

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:07 | 3588463 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Rates went up like .5% or something like that. It's still at around lifetime lows. And THAT is enough to crash the market?

I guess folks really are that financially strapped.  

People buy payments. Not houses.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:29 | 3588556 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

A collective voice of no confidence in the economy due to lack of price discovery.  No one wants Debt, no one wants to speculate.  However IMO equity will always be equity and income properties purchased with 100% cash and in locations with secure incomes are the only play, and there's not much of that to go around - until the foreclosures spill into the retail market.  "Investment Companies" can lap up houses en masse with cheap money however who do they sell to, if the average would-be buyer has neither salary security nor faith in price stability?

I wonder what derivatives are based on the continuous flow of MBS. 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:12 | 3589030 Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

I'll speculate.

I speculate that my ammunition investment, though maybe a bit cheaper tomorrow, will have infinite value in the macro.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:26 | 3589091 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

IMO that's an investment, not a speculation. 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:32 | 3589119 Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

Isn't speculation, investments?  If not realistically defined as "above margines"?

Allow me to define "infinite value".  Anything you'd gladly give your entire life's accumulation of wealth for, immediately.

 

"A horse, a horse...my kingdom for a box of ammo"

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 16:18 | 3589271 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I speculate that my ammunition investment, though maybe a bit cheaper tomorrow, will have infinite value in the macro.

You will WIN large on that,now that the DOD, has ordered all scrap milbrass shredded and sold to China(at a LOSS!).NO more of the three or four most popular cases of once fired avail at less than 30-40% of new cost, will cause the reloaders, of remanufactured ammo either out of business,or their cost to go up 2-3x's.

You know what that translates into OTC prices.$65.00 for .22LR bricks is the NEW price.Bama got his crap stopped for now, and he is end arounding it(Clitton did the same thing, and Congress stopped that).

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:56 | 3589201 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Rates went up like .5% or something like that. It's still at around lifetime lows. And THAT is enough to crash the market?

I guess folks really are that financially strapped.

People buy payments. Not houses.

 

EXACTLY, when I was a kid MANY moons ago rates were 4%.Problem now is cost of new houses(and taxes/utilities/etc), and potential loss of employment IF you are still employed.I do not see how anyone (in the current climate),would dare to buy.

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:07 | 3588466 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The Japanese are having a well concealed effect on the 10 year bond and consequent mortgage rates.

Ben doesn't want to start tensions with them, but he's going to have to.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:13 | 3588483 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

fkin funny crashisoptomistic.

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:12 | 3588485 adr
adr's picture

This would be because 75% of the people buying the homes aren't getting a mortgage. When you pay cash, you don't need a loan.

Cashing out a 401k to buy that hot Vegas property you buddy flipped for a $20k profit doesn't take a mortgage either.

Somebody at Fannie better get working on a new loan sceme to get the bag holders into the properties quick.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:15 | 3588498 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Don't they have the technology to print more applications?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:15 | 3588501 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Because they're all buying two new cars now!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:15 | 3588502 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

"People buy payments. Not houses."

Actually they sign a contract agreeing to open their pockets to taxing bodies.

Real estate isn't an investment but a promise of endless transfer payments to muni and school workers, etc.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:37 | 3588578 GoldenDragon
GoldenDragon's picture

The promise of endless transfter payments comes from just living in any place in the US that has a government and school system (everywhere in the US).  It's not a function of owning / investing in the real estate, it's a function of living in it.

I own investment properties.  I don't pay the muni and school workers, my tenants do (although those payments do go through me).

Where I live, I pay the muni and school workers; and that would be true whether I rented or owned.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:52 | 3588634 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

But i was told that my house was an investment.  i bought in the early stages of the bubble in 2001 for 300k.  At it's peak, my neighbors were buying in for 500k.  Now they are trying to get out at 400 if they are lucky.  But here is what happened to me

I financed 200k over 14 years (i'm done late this year cuz i paid extra) at 4.25%= 65608 in interest

Taxes started out 5k and moved to 9k so lets average it 7k for 14 years = 98000.00

new roof = 4000

new water heater furnace = 4000

plumbing over the years = 5000

landscaping/ gardening/ lawn/ equipment / pesticides/ misc over 14 years = 10000

Painting/ remodeling kitchen and bathroom over the years = 10000

so

current value              370000

purchase price            300000

gain                           70000

costs                        196608

net result                 (126608)

ANd i'm a lucky one who is still above purchase price. 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:54 | 3588642 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

What would it cost to rent your place?  Any tax deductions come with that house?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:58 | 3588663 GoldenDragon
GoldenDragon's picture

It's true.  To look at the home you live in as investment is to not see reality.

A house is an asset, to be sure.

If the house is generating you positive income (like a rental property) then it is an investment.

If it is costing you money to own then it is an expense, just like your cable bill, electric bill and all other living expenses.

It is a shame that so many people think they live in an investment.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:24 | 3588794 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

I agree that your primary residence should not be thought of in terms of an investment, but rather as an asset with various associated costs and liabilities. As an asset, it can go up or down in price in response to many factors.

This issue is not that people think they are living in an "investment," but rather that they were led to believe this particular "investment" never went down in value. That is the scam - not that it is an investment.

A stock broker who made that claim would be sued, lose his license, and be barred for making such claims (though many tried to imply this in the stock gogo years), and yet, the real estate business did this for years and, so far, with impunity.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:47 | 3588914 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

One of the necessary components of a scam is reasonable reliance...  I think it's patently unreasonable to expect an asset to increase in value in perpetuity...  ergo, the reliance on this feature of homeownership is not a scam... 

If it was something more than puffing, then homeowners ought to have plenty of ammo to sue their originators...  someone's got to pay the difference between present market value and the proposed appreciation. 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 16:06 | 3589231 DosZap
DosZap's picture

If it is costing you money to own then it is an expense, just like your cable bill, electric bill and all other living expenses.

It is a shame that so many people think they live in an investment.

This is true whether renting of owning,the only difference is you can walk the lease at the end of the agreement.(and renting is just paying off someone elses note).

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:16 | 3588744 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Or, you paid $753.62 per month, which is far less than comparable rent, I would assume, so not a bad choice to buy. Of course, you could further back out the value of your time to arrange or perform the repairs, as this would have been handled by the landlord if you had rented. On the other hand, now that you are no longer paying interest, the monthly value of your imputed rent is decreasing as long as you stay in it. (BTW, your tax increases have been outrageous. You need to run some politicians out of town).

And so what if people told you that a home was an "investment." Were you or are you so naieve to think investments never go down in value? I bet you listen to your stockbroker, too.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:09 | 3589018 Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

But you have to pay the $300,000, which is a down payment of $100,000 and $1500 a month for the loan, plus another $580 a month for taxes.  You have to sell the house at $370k to realize the $753 / month.  Prices in my area and others were already elevated in 2001 and we haven't even seen the bottom in housing yet.  We currently have housing bubble 2.0 thanks to Ben, but when the punch bowl gets taken away, prices will fall again.  

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 16:03 | 3589223 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

True, but you have to live somewhere, and you pay this if you rent, too.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:19 | 3588512 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Avalanche!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:21 | 3588519 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

Even though new mortgage apps crashed and existing home sales are at the level achieved in 2002, the housing recovery meme dies hard.

 

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/05/22/around-the-globe-05-22-2013/

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:22 | 3588522 dolph9
dolph9's picture

But I thought that stocks, housing, and bonds rise to infinity, and, even as they do so, they become more affordable.

Was I mistaken?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:22 | 3588525 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the bankers will now take another bonus from petty cash

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:23 | 3588533 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

The question is what happens if there are no more MBS for the Fed to buy? An unanticipated end to QE due to lack of supply?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:27 | 3588543 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

I just spoke to a patient yesterday that writes mortgages for a large local bank.  She said it is almost impossible to get people approved these days.  They are even starting to overlook certain financial issues of some just so they can approve and get some paper moving.  Me thinks this problem is not over folks.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:36 | 3588571 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Over? It hasn't even started yet. 2008 was a walk in the park compared to what is ahead.

 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:49 | 3588619 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Anyone that has a lot of housing inventory on their balance sheet is in a bit of a quandry about increasing lending standards...  On the one hand you want to stop the bleeding, but on the other hand you want to keep all your limbs.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:17 | 3588751 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

Yes she also confirmed all the shadow inventory that is in foreclosue or should be in foreclosure.  Many families living in homes they shouldn't be if they have a pulse, can keep the lawn mowed, and throw a few bucks at the bank every once in a while.  True shit.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:44 | 3588599 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

You mean MOAR Liar's Loans? What could possibly go wrong with that?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:29 | 3588557 El Diablo Rojo
El Diablo Rojo's picture

Who is this author?  Reads like George Washington, not the Tylers.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:39 | 3588582 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

And so when was the last time you read any George Washington?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:39 | 3588584 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

The housing market is barely crawling in my area. At the end of 2012 I thought there may actually be a turnaround...but no...dead as a doornail. Only if they reduce the price 30% below list does a buyer/investor/Flipper/speculator or whatever take a peek.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:28 | 3588827 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Your post means nothing without a location.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:45 | 3588894 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Over 90% of buyers in Kihei, Maui are Canadians now.

Let that stat sink in when thinking of the massive RE bubble that exists in Canada.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:56 | 3588951 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Well, there are worse places to own a house...  really nice place...  and a nice spot to hang out when the hosers get cold...  when it warms back up, head back to the tundra eh

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:13 | 3589034 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, it is a great place but most of my friends who own there see the writing on the wall when Canada goes tits up. The Canucks do not see it coming, much like the Californians never saw it coming in 2005-2007. It will be 2008 again, only worse. Tourism will get killed too as Canucks make up 60-70% of tourists in Kihei now.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 17:59 | 3589369 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I know I always comment on this whenever we discuss Hawaii (I really do love the place, especially Kauai), but it's completely crazy what the RE appreciation has done to the local/native populations...  Reminds me of indian reservations or something...  oh, you can't afford $30/meal?  $7/gallon gas?  A $500,000 house too small to take a shit in?  Pretty wild...  I can see why they might be resentful...  I suspect that many of the hosers will get yokeled before this thing is over (much like the wallstreet and chinese money that's pumping into america's heartland farms, aka where I'm located).

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 18:06 | 3589546 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Plenty of the locals depend on food stamps, welfare or other gov't aid. 

And the public schools there are horrible. 49th in the US ahead of only Mississippi. It's sad.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:35 | 3589078 s-logic
s-logic's picture

Couldn't agree more. I live in Toronto. Selling my cottage right now for $300k because I want to get out before things get real. Heard a few stories from my friends. Homes in Toronto get sold for over $1M in less than a day on the market. Houses in the cottage country that used to be on the market for months before selling now go in days. A cottage on a street next to mine was sold in 2 days for $300k as well (less than 1,000 sq.ft). Another friend bought a house in Barrie (100 km from Toronto, a town with no jobs and low incomes) for 190k in 2009. A house next to hers was sold for $400k last year, fixed up and re-sold a few weeks ago for $792k. How's that for a bubble?!

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 16:25 | 3589293 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Couldn't agree more. I live in Toronto. Selling my cottage right now for $300k because I want to get out before things get real. Heard a few stories from my friends. Homes in Toronto get sold for over $1M in less than a day on the market. Houses in the cottage country that used to be on the market for months before selling now go in days. A cottage on a street next to mine was sold in 2 days for $300k as well (less than 1,000 sq.ft). Another friend bought a house in Barrie (100 km from Toronto, a town with no jobs and low incomes) for 190k in 2009. A house next to hers was sold for $400k last year, fixed up and re-sold a few weeks ago for $792k. How's that for a bubble?!

 

Canada has been dodging the big one for a while,your fates are going to look exactly like the US did in '08, except 10x's worse.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:45 | 3588605 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Biggest problem here on ZH is that when the data suits it is accurate and unmanipulated (case in point above), when it doesn't suit, then the data can't be trusted from the Ministry of Illusory Yarn spinning.  This like everything else from the government needs to be taken with a salt mine of salt.  Let's just call it bad weather and Mother's Day and be done with it.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:46 | 3588608 tecno242
tecno242's picture

If the 30 year fixed rate gets even back to 5%, I think mortgage applications will drop to damn near zero.  Quite possibly lowest in history.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:52 | 3588636 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Which is fucking crazy considering the difference between 4.5% and 5.0% on a $175,000 loan is only ~$50/month.  I'm thinking there is another explanation...

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:16 | 3588746 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

MM, indeed there is "another explanation", and that's the one nobody wants to hear.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:39 | 3588864 object_orient
object_orient's picture

The difference is $63. Especially in the 175k price range, that can make or break a budget. Now, for a 300k+ house, probably not.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:50 | 3588927 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

You forgot the sarc tags...

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:38 | 3589144 tecno242
tecno242's picture

You'll have 2 situations;

A) everyone in the country who could have refi'ed has done it.  So a move above 4.5% will send refi's literally to zero.  None.  Zilch.  It might put mortgage brokers out of buisness and will kill bank earnings.

B) While yes.. a 0.5% move in rates won't kill anyone in any price range... moving from 3.75% (now).. to 5% is a 1.25% move.  That will change your price range you're looking at.  Especially at the upper end...  if you were looking at 550K w/ 3.75%... you're looking at 475k at 5%.  End result, you are looking at houses that aren't as nice as the ones you were looking at before.  That could be enough for many to just decide to hold off and hope rates fall again.  Meanwhile, that will kill sales, kill mortgage apps, and start to slowly bring prices back down again.

Flippers will get slaughtered if rates move fast.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:54 | 3588646 yogibear
yogibear's picture

More and more printing until the US dollar sinks to constant historic lows.

Like the equities going up daily, the US dollar sinks daily lows. It's coming.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 13:59 | 3588667 10mm
10mm's picture

Maybe people don't want a fuckin ball and chain mortage around their necks along with taxes and maint.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:26 | 3588809 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

XTC: Save us from the ball and chain!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtJPyeiUjk8

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:28 | 3588822 lamont cranston
lamont cranston's picture

One of my company's businesses is doing property verifications in 15 counties for Home Equity Loans. February thorugh late April we were averaging 125/month. So far in May we've done less than 50, a 50% drop. 

This bodes bad for the economy, because HE loans are what fuel start up businesses. Long gone are the days when you'd have a plan and go to NCNB with your CPA to get a $50k loan secured by your assets. Today you're told to do a HE loan, period. 

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 17:46 | 3589497 KCMLO
KCMLO's picture

I see these very often in refis as well.  Self-employed small business owners not even necessarily underwater but mortgaged to the hilt and stuck.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:45 | 3588891 miker
miker's picture

A house was never a decent investment.  It was only the Boomer generation that conned themselves into thinking so.  My Dad's good advice when I left college was to buy a house I could readily afford, IF I would enjoy being a homeower (which I do).  Things like landscaping, entertaining, gardening, working on cars, etc.  So I did.  But I'm sure I never made much money compared to renting.  But I got what I wanted which wasn't monetary.

Boomers still have to learn this the hard way.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:47 | 3588916 scam_MERS
scam_MERS's picture

One thing I really don't understand: I have a friend who is a Residential RE Appraiser here in So Cal, and he's busier than ever. Works night and day and has more work than he can possibly handle, and has been at this pace for many months now. Never sleeps, works all night long on reports and all day out doing inspections...how can it be, if things are so slow? Is he lying to me? I must admit (on here, not to him) that I'm a bit jealous, he has been raking in cash like there's no tomorrow for so long it's hard to believe. Makes me wish I'd gotten in as an appraiser a couple of years ago. CA is making the barriers to becoming an appraiser harder and harder as the years go on, now you're going to have to have a college degree (not joking) to get an appraiser's license in this state. He got in about four or five years ago when it was much easier, now it's nearly impossible.

I'd just like to know WTF is going on, I keep reading how things are slowing down and he stays busier than ever. And it sure seems to be true, he never gets enough sleep and looks like hell, but has plenty of cash rolling in...

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:51 | 3588933 object_orient
object_orient's picture

Your friend has too much work. You are jealous of his income. How about..... he takes you on as an assistant!?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:09 | 3589020 scam_MERS
scam_MERS's picture

I actually thought about that, but he already has a couple of members of his family (son, daughter in law) working for him. So I think that's out. If it wasn't for that, he probably would have me working for him. But this still doesn't answer the question, how is it that he's busier than ever when supposedly mortgage apps are falling like a rock - if this headline is to be believed? Perception doesn't match up with reality. So I just don't know what to believe at this point.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 15:25 | 3589086 KCMLO
KCMLO's picture

Cash deals may still require appraisals in the purchase contract.  There has been a huge pop in those.  CA is one of the buble markets so a spike in purchases there isn't too surprising.  Particularly if you live in one of the bubbliest cities.  Also the high barrier for entry and the huge amount of job loss from 2008 to present for appraisaers could be affecting the number of appraisers out there to handle that workload.  I posted just above you in this thread about the mortgage company I work with, staff is cut to the bone and they just prefer to work everyone to death.  I know appraisers are usually self employed or at least 1099 it seems, so there might have been quite a few of them that didn't weather the horrible years.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 16:49 | 3589354 scam_MERS
scam_MERS's picture

KC, you could be right. Makes sense. Don't know about cash deals requiring an appraisal, though. I bought my house all cash back in 2010 and there was no requirement for one, it was up to me if I wanted to pay for an appraisal or not. It was a way under market trashed REO, so I didn't feel I needed one. I also got in on the $8K rebate for buying at the right time. I'm in the Inland Empire area of So Cal, and things here are hot with very low inventory and prices rising fairly quickly. The appraiser I'm speaking of goes all over So Cal, though, anywhere there's work. He's doing independent appraisals as well as 1099 work, and cash is rolling in in buckefuls.

He just got into appraising around 2007-08 time frame, taking a online course with no prior experience, pretty unbelievable that he's gone from zero income to making (at times) $5K a week or more.

He got very lucky to get in when the requirements were much more lax, they've made it very difficult now for anyone new to get in. He's a friend of mine, so when I say I'm jealous, I'm not upset about it, I'm actually happy for him. I just think I should have followed along and done the same, pretty much too late now for that.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 17:42 | 3589476 KCMLO
KCMLO's picture

Feast or famine and it only pays off if you're the last man standing in your area.  The way VA appraisals are assigned is pretty close to racketeering as well.  If we really are looking at another investor bubble causing another crash I would (and do) want to be as far away from the real estate sector as I could.  I've noticed there's an odd taint to working in mortgages, employers don't think those work skills are transferable to any roles outside of mortgages.  I can somewhat understand that bias considering I have never met people that know less about their own industry (and how it really works) than folks in real estate.  Realtors are the worst (prices only go up right? no idea about build quality/construction methods, they sell houses without knowing shit about actual houses, most of them can't negotiate worth a damn anyway), Loan Officers run a close second (they don't fully understand the loan programs they sell, they tend to drive loans to whatever lender is in their ear at the moment without regard to customer benefit, they're salespeople selling a financial product that they know fuck-all about, how it's securitized how we recapitalize, etc).  Appraisers seem to be the most switched on of the trifecta, but their focus is so narrow (namely just home values) that it's fairly hard for them to fuck up.  They are probably under the most pressure (from realtors, borrowers, and LOs)to morally compromise themselves.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 21:23 | 3590194 scam_MERS
scam_MERS's picture

KC, since they changed the rules, appraisers are under less stress to "hit the numbers" because of the introduction of AMCs (appraisal management companies) that act as a middleman between the broker/agent/buyer and mortgage company. What happened before this change - the field was rife with abuse, and was one of the primary causes of the mortgage meltdown in 2008 or so.

However, my friend has placed himself on both sides by starting his own AMC! So he can farm all the work assigned to the AMC directly to him! If that sounds vaguely unethical, you're not alone. I have no idea if that's legal or not, but sounds fishy to me. I'm not going to report him (the AMC is under his son's name, anyway, so it's hard to prove conflict of interest) but he's pretty driven to cash in on the current madness. And cashing in, in spades, is what he's doing! May as well make hay while the sun shines, I suppose. Who knows how long this current craze will last?

I agree with you, I think we're headed for another crash, but how soon is anyone's guess. I think anyone in the industry would want to get out before it all comes crashing down around their ears. I don't think we're quite there yet. I called the last one nearly on the nose, sold my previous home the same month prices peaked here in this area (Sept 2006) and doubled my money on the sale. Sat out the crash and rebought in 2010 with the cash from the previous sale. So basically I got this home for nearly zero of my own cash, it was nearly all profit from the previous sale. Was able to move up into a much newer, nicer area and city, and larger home with a rental out back. So I'm watching this one closely, if it doubles what I paid in 2010 I may cash out and do the same thing again. YMMV.

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 14:56 | 3588935 KCMLO
KCMLO's picture

I'm just a lowly worker at a mid-sized local mortgage company.  Of course I've held a position about 4 steps up the totem pole from where I am now but the financial correction kicked my ass.  I've been trying ever since to get out of this industry with no real luck.  In any case, I have repeatedly waved this flag directly to the owners of this company and they just don't give a flying fuck.  Namely this company focuses on refinances with even the majority of those being rate/term.  They don't understand that here in Missouri there is a finite supply of mortgages out there that a) are not underwater AND b) have a high enough interest rate where the customer is motivated to refinance anyway.  There is very little equity so there are very few cash-out refis out there (relatively speaking). 

So... on a whim I did a bit of research and calculations.  It doesn't look good.  Even with rates staying completely flat for the next 2 years we theoretically run out of people to refi by early 2015.  Though that's bullshit too considering companies (namely this one) will start folding when eligible mortgages become more and more rare (even a reduction of elgilble inventory by 50% would be catastrophic for refi shops).  I have made a litany of recommendations for a change of focus to replace falling revenue/volume and their response has ranged from completely ignoring to actually telling me that my suggestions would certainly make more money, but they'll never do it (they actually said this).

Most states have some sort of net tangible benefit law where an originator must prove that the new mortgage is an improvement.  For the most part this requirement is usually a 5% reduction in monthly payment.  Some states even go as far to consider "recapture" of closing costs, that seems to be around 72 months.  I wouldn't ever remotely consider refinancing if I faced those sort of numbers but...Here's the scary thing: we are frequently running into customers that can't get past this criteria even if they're dropping their interest rate by a full point.  They have refinanced over and over all the way down the falling rate curve and they have nothing left.

In short, anyone in St. Louis hiring?

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 19:12 | 3589771 Herkimer Jerkimer
Herkimer Jerkimer's picture

 

'

'

'

I love bootzondaground people like you.

 

Well, why don't you take your ideas and beat'em at their own game?

 

Otherwize, good luck to ya guy. Great info.

 

•J•
V-V

Wed, 05/22/2013 - 16:04 | 3589115 mr_T
mr_T's picture

Glad  I got my parents to sell their SoCal house they owned for 30 years. Escrow closed two weeks ago. sold it way over asking.  Got their equity out before the mini bubble popped only one way for interest rates to go  up.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 02:27 | 3591043 Dealyer Turdin
Dealyer Turdin's picture

Over-hoppered compared to what, exactly, son?  What's a  good beer?  Remember, every molecule of the worthiness of your forgoing comments hinges on a good Answer.  Not much worth less than an armchair critic.  Beer being water malt and hops plus yeast, my guess is you like malt better than hops.

Ok.  Here's your purple heart.  Side note, most houses, which are built of pine, gypsum, and crappy tar products, are not getting better with time.  They're all the current building inspectors understand, but they SUCK GAS to stay warm.  A house that can be farted out of a nozzle for 300 bucks worth of building materials is coming, it will be built by a computer in less than a day.  It will boast a near perfect efficiency coefficient, and look like a million bucks.  

Mirror Pond Pale Ale (Go Deschutes!), Lagunitas IPA (a most excellent,refreshing beverage),  Ninkasai Total Domination...

What say you?

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