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With One Hour Of Trading To Go, The Ghost Of Divergences Past Arrives
As the world of equity asset-gatherers is desparate to point out the 'bubble' talk must mean bonds, we offer a few charts as a gentle reminder of reality... And as Doug Kass noted the last two times the S&P 500 hit all-time high and closed down more than 1% from that high were 10/11/07 & 3/24/00... 330 Ramp Capital has their work cut out today with volume already near the highest of the year in the S&P 500 e-minis.
Where's the bubble?
Credit has been nervous for 2 weeks...
as has VIX...
Charts: Bloomberg
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History teaches: This divergence can last over a year without converging.
History teaches: We don't learn from history
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM4bCiKIJuA&feature=player_detailpage
Like the book "The Natural." No one ever learns.
But But.... the headlines said Bernanke was going to buy a bigger helicopter and throw more QE Money. Where's the disconnect ??
Who wants to be short overnight with the phantom nocturnal ES liftathon approaching?
Any bets that SPX closes at 1666? We'll have to wait for Dylan Collins to wake up from his nap.
Maybe if we get a goocher Bernanke will fly off a cliff...
Bah 40 points down...this is BTFD until it's real.
Is the dip over? Is the water cleared of sharks? Can I go back in now? We didn't even hit 1,700 yet. More upside potential? Can I buy this dip? Is tomorrow Tuesday?
"Is tomorrow Tuesday?"
You don't have to worry your pretty little head over such messy details. The President reminded us of just those messy details the other day: "Subtraction is more difficult than addition".
We know life is complicated. Having to memorize those awful maff facts and Days of the Week! Really!
You just sit back and if you need to know something, we'll tell you! We're helpful like that! If you need to really something learned, all you have to do is find someone that's approved to tell you and it'll be OK. We'll even give you a ca'calator if you need one.
Tell you what: I want to help you. These investment decisions are just too difficult these days, what with you not being on the inside 'n all.
Why don't you let me invest your money for you? After all, I know people...
CW
1100-1200 seems like a good bounce point on the eventual drop to 450.
Buy moar SPY puts then!
Slowy I turn... Step by step... Inch by inch
The lesson of life... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr6VBg1SiYI
Let's go, Kevin! Show some hustle out there!
The BlowHorn [CNBC] just called for an outside reversal day, which changes sentiment on the direction of the market (down).
That means it should ramp into the close, right?
I own two mining stocks. One is up and the other one is flat. Wahoo!!!!!!!
NO FEAR!
"330 Ramp Capital" LLP
That's priceless.
Time to buy some lottery tickets (stort-dated, deep OTM puts).
Divergences all over the place. The dollar and gold are both higher along with many commodities. Some of which closed before FOMC minutes perhaps was fully priced in. Russell 2000 down a sizable amount off intraday high. All other currencies are down against the dollar.
My instinct is now saying that QE continues forever but the markets are saying not so fast.
Maria says massive and intense sell program on yield convergance! Wow! That's good!
Ah, into the world of endless speculation.
http://goldsilverbitcoin.com
we'll see if this cute little guy is in the house now or not. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ieCSUnVL-_s clearly the Fed doesn't want Wall Street to actually work for a living. what? you want the rest of us to thank you or something?
the horror...the horror...
Bond yields exploding... So much for the great rotation.
One wonders how many shorts capitulated this morning. I admit I did with my HD short at $81 instead of pressing it. Still short spy but pretty angry I didn't press this morning. If you did press the ramp up, congrats on your conviction.
Kass needs to get back to his nap.
So...blowoff top?
The volume is what you would expect on a blowoff top. The reversal intraday is typical. The euphoria has been there which is what you expect in a blowoff.
However, Bernanke is still here and the markets are still broken. Who really can say with any certainty on one day. Historically you would be right on your conclusion. You can throw all that out now.
Well, was Berspankme talking about the end of Queasing back in 2000 and 2007....? This time is different. Those were real stock market crashes led by reality. We live in the land of unicorns now. This market will go up forever, so long as the FED keeps throwing around the Benjibux.
And, let's face it, if there ever is a correction of any magnitude, say 2%, Benny would step right in with another trillion to ensure reality is kept in the closet.
BTFD until the world implodes.
All the ES/Dow losers today, can rotate into Nikkei later. /s
Here comes the ramp 3:28
'the last two times the S&P 500 hit all-time high and closed down more than 1% from that high were 10/11/07 & 3/24/00...'
Sounds ominous, till one considers that there were only about 20 days in 2007 when the S&P was above its March 2000 high ... a tiny data set.
To put it differently, on many occasions between 1995 and 2000 the S&P reached a new all-time high and closed down more than one percent.
Which proves ... nothing at all, except 'it ain't over till it's over.'
New high reversal on heavy volume. Mark it down, that's as high as we go folks...
this can be the day that changes the trend of the market.
i feel this is different then the italian election sell off and boston marathon day sell off.
members of fed finally acknowledging bubbles in assets ( we on zerohedge have seen that for years)
they finally gave a specific time frame in which they may taper.
i feel like the bullish sentiment maybe gone.
also, who the fuck is going to want to be long going into a long holiday weekend with no trading monday in the u.s?
lets hope this is the beggining. also, considering that we were up 150 at highs and we r going to finish red, that would be the 1st time since march 09 that, that has happened.
BTFD
sarc?
Market correction in a month or less
i dont really think we are going to get a ''correction''.
once it accelarates downward with lots of volume, this is going to be the end. a long and painful selloff for the bulls and the longs.
this is bubble territory, every single stock is at all time highs, and if u take a look at the economy now, that is not possible.
its going to be long and painful for the bulls, bankers, etc.
for us zerohedgers, it will be a long lasting orgasm.
also, i am adding more gold, when this all comes crashing down, gold can make its way back to 1500 shortly and beyond,
here comes the stick save
Poor shleps at msn.com can't keep up with the algos. The headline still reads "Stocks rise on Bernanke remarks" right beside the now red numbers.
Funny shit.
As if it’s not shameful enough watching the Fed use all its might to financially bully everyone’s grandparents, I’m even more embarrassed for them when they take right hook to the face from the old gray-hairs.
Jup... Gold/silver ratio says S&P should be about 1200 as well.
Starting to sound like broken record on that.
Sell Mortimer. Sell!!
Shorts have been burned so bad that I think you need to see at least a two percent downturn on a major index before the trend has been changed. No short is getting aggressive until that happens.
The clowns at CNBS just don't get it. It isn't just about tapering buying. The net effect(on the markets) of buying is diminishing, and the markets are starting to realize that. Bernanke said himself that things are getting frothy.
June Gloom.
This is SO FUCKING GREAT !! Been waiting MONTHS for this, and the only downside is the obviously leaked Fed minutes that started the party a bit early without me (I left the house to run an errand, as it normally doesn't pay to trade from 12:30 - 1:45 on FOMC days). It's not an overstatement to say this "little" downdraft (especially in the Russell, Holy Christ!), along with the few Fed boyz mentioning June, partially restored my faith in mankind. A Mozart sinfonia concertante, cranked to glorious levels, will likely restore any remaining portion this evening.
I hope you don't mind my reposting the following little ditty, to be sung to your favorite showtune, written with beleaguered Russell short-sellers in mind:
TZA !
I love you, love you, love you
TZA !
No ETF’s above you
TZA -- TZA!
You enriched my life today
One week per year your return’s oh-so-bold,
then you bite all the dorks
doing overnight holds
TZA !
You’ve brought me closer to
retirement day
No more hot dogs, from now on it’s
brick-sized fillets
smothered in white truffle mayonnaise !
TZA: you’re -- the -- best !
Good luck - the last few times I traded the TZA I had my ass handed to me!
I'm convinced it's for day-trades only, with average holding periods of around 30 min (except for festivals like today). Even if we get a bearish monthly chart, you'd be better off with a non-leveraged hold of an inverse Russell than messing with this firecracker. (eg., I got out at 3:36 today, and it's already rebounded nearly a full point from the low, probably from Goldman or JPM fuckhead late-day programs, getting in early for what will likely be the typical 9:35 ramp tomorrow).
Oh taper me not, on the Lone QE...
It seems like in another lifetime when I was at Bear Stearns, 55 Water St, that markets sometimes had things called "key reversals". I know this must seem incredible these days, when Ben has become God, but back then some guys like me would actually "chart' "market action" and then try to "trade". Yes yes I know that is so horse and buggy.
But anyway it seemed to me that the Monday action in silver seemed to qualify as a key reversal, just as today's has (so far ) in the S&P.
Anybody else thinking that Monday for silver and today for S&P could have marked a bottom and top? Not that it means anything when Dr Ben Dover is at the "helm". Just sayin'
If you are busy chasing rare data points like butterflies, you are expecting to pick good horses then? Way too late, sailor.
I would love to see that 10Y yeild converge to the SPX ending at ~5.5%. Talk about chaos for the banks and Fed.
ZZZZZ.....ZZZZZZZZZZ oh, WTF....arrrrggghh. Not even down 1%....wake me up when its down 10%...ZZZZZZZ......ZZZZZZZZZZZ.
Just off 0.75 % ...WTF !
I've gone all with with guns, ammo, sardines, beans, and rice.
Celestial Mechanics before Galileo was like the Bernank. ZIRP=Banks-W, Savers-L. Are we there yet, Daddy?
inverse VIX