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Bass On Japan's Turbo QE: "It Won't Be Enough"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

If JGB investors 'believe' as Richard Koo earlier noted, in the BoJ's new actions and Abenomics (to double the monetary base and generate inflation), then, Kyle Bass explains, a rational investor is likely to sell a portion if not all of them. The BoJ only has JPY10 trillion cushion (after the JPY60 trillion deficit) to soak up this 'rational investor paradox' selling and this is dwarfed by the holdings of JGBs in the largest Japanese banks (who are now starting to rotate away from JGBs into foreign bonds). Simply out, Bass exclaims, they are going to have make the plan even bigger... if they are to successfully contain rates. With a quadrillion JPY of JGBs out there, if a mere 5% is sold (from 'Abe'lievers) then Japan's Turbo QE is not big enough which leads to the paradoxical increase in the QQE, moar inflationary 'belief', and moar selling pressure... The BoJ has been in the market every day but 2 since April 4th trying to hold rates down (and is failing)...

 

Bass also explains his portfolio approach to positioning for Japan's problems - which is different from the mainstream media's perspective of being long the widow-maker...

and discusses the 'macro tourists' who are merely renting the Nikkei as opposed to owning it as evidenced last night - who do not comprehend the lack of improvement in the deficit despite the calamitous devaluation of the JPY (and a hollowed out manufacturing sector)...

 

Spend 7 minutes listening to some facts...

 


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Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:15 | Link to Comment blabam
blabam's picture

MOAR!

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Buy on the dip mentality.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment PiltdownMan
PiltdownMan's picture

No kidding Kyle, The Japanese sovereign yield curve has RISEN 60 bps since the BOJ announced their Fed-like monetary expansion. See here:

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/05/23/bernanke-hints-at-pulling-out-early-china-slows-nikkei-swoons-7-3/

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Bass is missing the Austrian perspective of Capital Based Macro-Economics.

High interest rates are required to focus capital on productive capacity with near-term return.  Low interest rates extend the time preference and actually cripples the economy with a productive capacity that is not being adapted quickly enough.

Printing money for an economy that is already overloaded with debt and in recession gives stagflation and guarantees that it won't recover while the money printing continues.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Bass is a fund manager first. My guess is if he had to choose between financial repression and a reset, it's repression all the way.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Technically with all the gold he holds a reset would work in his favor. Unless the Feds confiscate it that is.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:21 | Link to Comment Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

He'll still have his $1 million of nickels though.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment tsx500
tsx500's picture

ummm, i'm pretty sure that Mr Bass has a 'contingency plan' (let's call it) for any possible confiscation attempt !      I don't think he's losing any sleep over it ....

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:22 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Oh he is set up for both. No doubt. I just mean he probably prefers his lifestyle. He is a celebrity right now. If we get a reset ge will have several bullseye's on his ass.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

True. Very true. Nobody is allowed to win twice.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Kyle Bass curious factoid, his address is the same as that of Craft International, the CIA-mercenary company photographed at the Boston bombing ... and who some people think are the criminal murderers in Boston:

« Craft International’s address (2101 Cedar Springs Rd., Suite 1400, Dallas, Texas) was listed in Business Week, and is the same address, including Suite 1400, for a handful of businesses, including Cayman Capital Management, LLC, a hedge fund firm headed by a J. Kyle Bass »

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2013/05/10/making-mayhem-in-boston-the-cia-...

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

There was discussion on these pages that the obvious posting of Craft personnel at Boston was a frame-up of an anti-establishment organization.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Haole
Haole's picture

That's a curious factoid alright... Thanks.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:42 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Kyle Bass's business is Hayman Capital, not Cayman Capital. Don't know about any other businesses operating from there but I've been there and there is a full office of people working as well as Kyle. I don't think its some kind of drop box. Says "Hayman Capital" at the door, nothing else.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Dr.Vannostrand
Dr.Vannostrand's picture

Bass was buddies w/ Chris Kyle (Founder of Craft); and I believe helped fund the start up. So not too much of a stretch to think that they would share the same building, as CK would probably appreciate having KB's biz expertise close by.

My opinion: CK was murdered because he didnt want Craft to follow in the mold of Xe (blackwater) and other mercenaries (contracted out by alphabets and the m-o-s-s-a-d); running ops like Boston, Sandy Hook. CK was somewhat arrogant and had a high body count behind him; but seemed to have some ethics and beliefs; as well as a young family. But then again, I'm just playing backup Monday Morning QB so feel free to to extrapolate whatever you like.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

Solid Factoid:

 

Chris Kyle was in discussions with Kyle Bass for a personal protection job.

Chris himself said that it was Kyle who popped the idea of starting a training facility.

For the record, Craft is a TRAINING facility. While many operators / LEOs / contractors receive TRAINING there, Craft is NOT a large scale supplier of bodies. TRAINING TRAINING TRAINING.

Many Seals wear the craft cap as a tribute to Chris Kyle. Many alumni from training sessions wear the Craft cap.

Few work for them.

 

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:01 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

Bifurcate, Glitchez !

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

They just need faster machines.   Duh.   Swallow pride, call the Koreans, and get some REAL HFT capable stuff.   Put in flash un-crash mode drawing on unlimited virtual funds.    <slaps hands> Problem solved.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Currency Meltdown!

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Buy on the dip mentality.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:45 | Link to Comment drdolittle
drdolittle's picture

Or bond meltdown. Can't have it both ways.

We live in exciting times folks. That's supposed to be a curse and may end up being one but hotdamn! it's exciting to me!

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"The BoJ has been in the market every day but 2 since April 4th trying to hold rates down (and is failing)..."

and the fed? POMO?

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

abenomics works on helium; it'll never come down.

Kyle will have to wait; like heaven.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

We're gonna need a bigger boat...

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Has anyone ever figured out what those stupid lazer sound are on CNBC? How does such an annoying gimmick stick around for so long?

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Buy on the dip mentality.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Midas
Midas's picture

If you want to talk about the longevity of annoying CNBC gimmicks, you have to start and stop with Mr. Jim Cramer.  Boo Yah!

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:46 | Link to Comment drdolittle
drdolittle's picture

My buddy called me up drunk off his ass and said the cramer had mentioned PAAS and it was time to sell.

It was at that time but I own that crap again.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:48 | Link to Comment The Thunder Child
The Thunder Child's picture

"I'm a STOCK STAR... PEW PEW PEW" - CNBC Pundit

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment howenlink
howenlink's picture

I think Kyle Bass should be the opening act for the next Black Sabbath reunion tour.  I'd go.  He rocks.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Finally he begins to hint at the Ice-nine factor. And, further that Japan should stay the course to recovery.

Everything fixed. All better now.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Buy on the gamma radiation mentality.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Congrats Bass

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Lore
Lore's picture

The guy is so cool, so deadpan - better than Super Dave Osborne.  How does he keep a straight face? 

We sure aren't getting much coverage of the reaction among Japanese savers and investors.  Do they exist?

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kyle Bass is not describing an imminent collapse. He says "on the front end" they get GDP growth the rest of this year. Everyone back to work.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Nue
Nue's picture

Which of course means nothing because GDP itself is a meaningless number. The Soviet Unions GDP was growing by leaps and bounds all the way to the break up and the crash of their economy.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I agree and changed my viewpoint below. fuck cnbc.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

You would think with a hole in the hull we would all be more intent on bailing, but we mostly seem concerned about the possibility of our bailing saving the necks of the assholes in the wheelhouse. What my dad would say was cutting off my nose to spite my face. Seems pretty sad that we have to drown ourselves to get even with the ones who put us on the rocks, but being principled has never been easy.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 20:30 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You overlook the possibility of not staying on the ship.

 

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Bigger plan to sustain rates? Sounds bullish...and sustainable too.

:/

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     If/when BoJ makes the QE program bigger, that will cause the yen to devalue even more. Japan will be eaten alive by import and energy costs.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Land of the Setting Sun.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I listened to Schiff today. He was flipping out over this Yen move. He is more collapse than Bass. Bass just sounds so chill. I guess CNBC is holding his nut sac and won't let him yell RUN!!!!!

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:42 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

What time is the Nikkei scheduled to open this evening? 7? 8EST? I need to get my coffee and chair comfortable.

http://www.schiffradio.com/f/loop

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:38 | Link to Comment TheEdelman
TheEdelman's picture

Maybe not cnbc censorship. He just might be positioned accordingly.  Lying in wait.  

Trying to replicate an 06/07 success, where this time, people might be actually listening to his advice.  

The malaise and caution are very thick this time around the track.  He doesnt want everyone to screw up his climax.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/p480x480/942613_5...

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I again ask, what does collapse mean?

Does 100% of the population die?

Does even 90% of the population die?

Or do a few people lose some money and aid organizations come in and prevent any starvation?

All this "beginning of the end" stuff and "collapse" stuff needs to lay out exactly what that means, because if no one dies, it doesn't mean anything.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Paper collapse.  I tend to think supply lines will still be fine, there is movement underneath for "currency reform" that will start coming to light as this thing moves off the rails.  The only dead will be a few window jumpers, and frankly, good riddance.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Jugdish
Jugdish's picture

Sisa ia an excellent alternative for those window jumpers. It makes you want to hold on to life as long as you can. It provides a goal and gives direction. Free Sisa for all NOW President O'bama.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment They trynna cat...
They trynna catch me ridin dirty's picture

If you think there is "currency reform" in place so as to allow a seamless transition for the EBT card savages to simply continue acquiring their grape soda and cheez doodles through a paper crash like as though nothing happened, you are dreaming.

After Hurricane Sandy NYC came very close to riots in the EBT areas due to some relatively mild inconveniences.  When the dollar crashes and Lamar's not able to get his menthol cigarettes and scratch off lotto tickets, you are going to see same major civil unrest in the inner cities.  Just about everyone credible has predicted such already.

The scenario is going to be TOO MANY CLAIMS TO TOO LITTLE WEALTH.  That means that whoever doesn't sink sufficient dollars into real physical things before the crash is screwed, and if you live in an urban area with close proximity to EBT people, not only are you screwed, but your life will be in jeopardy.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Collapse, Dire, Crash, Die, Armageddon, Disaster, Calamity, Bleed, Train Wreck, Waterfall  et al, all generate hits and attract attention.

No one really knows what the end of all this will look like, it's all up to the imagination.

Each nation state will most likely have it's own version of realization of the fact that the old way is passe', and will come up with it's own "remedies." New currencies, war, protectionism, print storms, austerity, totalitarian tactics, and such. Looks like the latter might be the way our leaders plan on handling it. We'll see.

But, yeah, if the Nukes came out, some folks could get very dead. Same as could happen in a breakdown of distribution systems.

No one knows. All speculate.

 

 

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:48 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

If you go by Kyle's rational investor thesis moar printing should not be better. Moar printing to buy bonds would just encourage more selling. Not to mention the fact that further devaluation will drive the cost of energy through the roof.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:51 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

we can't get a 2% correction in the Dow and this guy is looking for a 90% falloff in the human population.

 

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:52 | Link to Comment drdolittle
drdolittle's picture

ah for fuck's sake, 90%? People forget we had 200mill americans at the turn of the 20th century with little hydrocarbons. Human and animal labor plus utilizing near city space for gardens provided fine. Even without energy we'd b fine as long as it didn't happen all at once. The USSR collapsed with minimal deaths.

Just cause the Georgia guidestones suggest that's what's wanted and some super rich guys want to make it happen doesn't mean it will. Mass starvation causes peasants to get all uppity and kill their masters. Studiously avoid this if you're an elite guy. Just my advice. 

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 23:57 | Link to Comment moonstears
moonstears's picture

I say "exactly" dr-d. Listen, even if they are Satanists, they forget Satan always hated humans, and they are human. Elite scum make plans and God laughs, even their "god".

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 17:48 | Link to Comment DeficitAlchemist
DeficitAlchemist's picture

Again the Nikkei up oN yen weakening is not rocket science, I provided within a day when the Nikkei pullback would occur, and it was when the USDJPY ran 103.15

Posted a week ago

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CE6ciPdGt2U

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:08 | Link to Comment whoopsing
whoopsing's picture

Anyone want to buy a real perpetual motion machine ?   <sarc>

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Obama's mouth?

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:51 | Link to Comment The Thunder Child
The Thunder Child's picture

No that's an explosive diarrhea machine

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:09 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

Bass has called it again, a Ponzi ON TOP OF A Ponzi....wait 1 to 2 years and the house will be full of the sounds of little ponzi's 

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

By which you mean the pitter patter of little ponzis.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 22:19 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

The correct financial term is re-hyponzication.

For those who speak OL-Japanese, it's kami kami sumimasen, sometimes known officially as Yucho.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:16 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Just wondering how pm sales are doing today in Japan?

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment gamen
gamen's picture

This thesis presupposes that japanese investors are rational. I see no evidence that they are.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:27 | Link to Comment jubber
jubber's picture

So Bass missed buying any of the Nikkei's move from 8000 to 15000 by the sound of it, did he not see that part of the story???

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

And you didn't miss it? No big deal  -get in now as it will surely hit 25,000

Sat, 05/25/2013 - 14:45 | Link to Comment bombdog
bombdog's picture

Yes he did, I remember him talking about it and how it wasn't worth getting involved because of the likelyhood of a disorderly exit.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Too Big 2
Too Big 2's picture

Vote Kyle Bass in 2016!

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 19:10 | Link to Comment gallistic
gallistic's picture

Boring, Buffoonish, "Broken-Record" Bass...

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 19:34 | Link to Comment dootyfree
dootyfree's picture

He's so full of it.  Been talking the same stuff for years now.  It's always something that will happen in "a couple of years".  10yr JGB are back to where they were in Jan 2013... WOW.  IF bank's weren't selling then, why would they sell now.  Japan will always be a safe haven, just like US because of fiat currency.  Fiat govts sell bonds to control the funds rate. Look at their amount of excess reserves.  The excess reserves are more than enought to eat up any bonds being sold.  Would a bank rather .1% on excess reserves or 1% on a jgb? 

You cannot target inflation, it's impossibe.  Monetary base expansion will do nothing except affect phsychology.  Money supply is expanded when banks make loans not from cash in bank reserves.  And banks make loans independent of reserve status.  Loans create deposits.  Velocity of money is way more important.  Fiscal expansion may help, actually fiscal is the only thing that could help.  QE is a placebo.  Look at the expansion of US monetary base and where is our economy.... muddling through. Wake up.  QE actually hurts economy as yield income is taken from banks.

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 22:51 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

You make a good point, but---one is almost hesitant to say this---Japan is different.

At what price do the banks, and pension funds, and insurers carry those JGBs on their books? If tradition is anything to go by---and Japan is a country of tradition---many or most are carried at or near current market, provided the trend has been up.  Owing to Japanese accounting, profits (or contractual payouts for pensions and insurers) can only be paid from realized gains, which must be offset by realized losses.  That little gimmick encourages self-crossing.  Banks sell their JGBs---or equities or even futures---to themselves.  They book the "gain", and then put the asset back on the BS at that crossed rate.  If and when those assets subsequently fall, the position is held, because selling would generate an accounting loss, which would then have to be offset against realized gains.  Since real bank profitability, as well as pensions and insurers' ability to meet contractual payout rates, has been so poor for two decades, there have been lots and lots of crossed JGB trades as those have rallied to yield at the angstrom level, providing realizeable gains.  Now that JGBs are backing up, even if just to January 2013 levels, the chance for realizeable gains drops.  Can the same trick work with equities, now that the Nikkei has rallied so much?  Possibly, but the yen volume is nothing compared to JGBs, and for most equities, banks et al already have a portfolio of those same companies on their books, so they would just be averaging down an existing unrealized loss, rather than creating overall portfolio gains.

Admittedly Japan can get around this by fanciful creating of subsidiaries, booking positions separate from the parent (as if they are buying Toyota for the very first time) or even by buying Nikkei futures (which by definition are fresh, e.g., June 2013 Nikkeis).  Banks will cross Nikkei futures with themselves (at market opens and closes), book the "winning" side on the parent BS, and book the "losing" side in a subsidiary that need not be consolidated.  The rule on mandatory consolidation---or not---is one of >10% of revenues, assets or profits.  Thus, they create lots and lots of sub 10% subsidiaries.

A good deal of Japanese corporate "profitability" throughout the last two decades was manufactured in this way.  It was one way exporters could get around a strong yen, and obviously required less capital than setting up manufacturing in lost cost nations.  For years many observers were surprised that Japanese growth could be so enemic yet corporate Japan could remain "profitable".  This is how they did it.  Realize this and you understand how they could be "profitable", yet neither the economy nor the Nikkei ever recovered.  Potemkin Village.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 04:30 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

"You cannot target inflation, it's impossibe."

Yes you can, and no it's not impossible.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 08:46 | Link to Comment dootyfree
dootyfree's picture

How?

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 20:05 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

yinz seem to be extremely interested in gold

and it's all about japan right now

The Ultimate Gold Price - Currency Correlation Chart

Thu, 05/23/2013 - 20:40 | Link to Comment Jones79
Jones79's picture

Isn't he all long CDS on Japanese Industrials or something like that?  There was a speech on here a few months ago that he gave at U. of Chicago Booth Business School. 

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