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The Economic Engine Of Europe Is Beginning To Sputter

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite ultra-low interest rates, practically unlimited liquidity, and a capital market seemingly willing to lend to anyone for anything on any terms, the very heart of Europe's economy - German CapEx on machinery - is falling at a rate faster than during the Tech bust... the tough news for anyone looking for a silver lining is that this just goes to confirm what we saw in US durable goods orders - there is simply no 'decoupling', it is a lead-lag inter-linked global economy.

 

 

(h/t Sean Corrigan of Diapason Commodities)

 

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Fri, 05/24/2013 - 14:59 | 3596634 maskone909
maskone909's picture

that there engine through a rod through the block and penitraited the drivers skull in 2008. 

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:03 | 3596649 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

How do you say "Better than expected" in German?...

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:16 | 3596703 smacker
smacker's picture

"Besseralserwartet" ?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:42 | 3596774 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

"Alle Erwartungen übertreffen"?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:53 | 3596810 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Alle gegen alle!!!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:55 | 3596820 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Alternative fur Deutschland.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:06 | 3596663 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

What?
You mixed something up.
That was Geely of China, not BMW.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vAN2cx2UIE

I'm very happy to see another dismal indicator... Next week could be very bad and I like that :-)

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:02 | 3596645 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

In case anyone wanted CNBC's explanation of the death of the petro dollar and the world's reserve currency.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100764681

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:06 | 3596664 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Sorry, I couldn't get past the visual of the US joining OPEC at some point in the future.

Hope you have a great weekend, Fonz!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:12 | 3596690 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You do the same. If you have a chance, i'd like to hear your take on my question on that other thread with Doc. I will check for it later and hopefully catch up with you on it soon.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 16:12 | 3596876 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I just reread the thread. I don't think anything 'big' is going to happen anytime soon, but I used to believe it. However, I do think we will suffer from a thousand paper cuts. Anything 'big' the Fed and banks can build a damn around it and feed enough money into it to 'correct' it, or give the appearance of correction. You can't build a damn around thousands of fractures in the system. There will be reports after reports after stories after almost-events that will eventually crush the current corrupt system. It is going to happen and its inevitable. Is it going to happen soon? If you mean within the next ten years then yes, I believe it will happen by then. My only regret so far is that we didn't buy more acreage for farm development. Our plan is to buy more within the next couple of years. I missed ZH a lot. Not only the reports but the community.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 16:17 | 3596889 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

That seems like a very realistic outlook. Thank you.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 16:25 | 3596909 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

here's the view of the Fed's position from space: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...'
and here's the abridged version of their history: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Okeechobee

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 22:22 | 3597683 Element
Element's picture

We may all be long-term bears on the EU, but it can potentially manage a temporary up-swing.

http://soberlook.com/2013/05/can-eurozone-surprise-to-upside.html

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:14 | 3596698 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Good catch, Fonz.

About a year ago I read an article in Peru (they have NatGas in the jungle: Camisea) about their being worried that huge US NatGas reserves putting Peruvian plans to export gas for big $$$.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:05 | 3596662 PiltdownMan
PiltdownMan's picture

I am going to buy a VW to help promote German recovery!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:06 | 3596665 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Who cares about German capex? Markets care about the superdraghimario "Monetary-Füllhorn".

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:30 | 3596744 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

An interesting thing about the German election coming up, is that Mario Draghi maybe has the power to destroy Merkel's chance of getting re-elected

Just like the ECB deposed Berlusconi from Italy the other year

If the German economy starts to sputter and tank hard before September - hopefully it will, to bring down Merkel - then Merkel will need Mario to step on the monetary gas for Germany

Hoping that Mario will forget all the past German complaining about the ECB

But Italian guys like Mario, have a good memory for who is their friend and who is not ...

 

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:55 | 3596818 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Angela has already full backing of Mario, that's why she already has sacrified Jens Weidmann, but she needs him, for the J6P in Germany (Currywursthans). Every Mario step is fully agreed and supported by Angela and vice versa.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 18:48 | 3597239 Dugald
Dugald's picture

I tedeschi non sono simpatici

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:08 | 3596673 l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

Beginning to sputter? As soon as they had to erect the EEC, it shoulda been clear Europe was heading for another breakdown...

http://goldsilverbitcoin.com

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:12 | 3596693 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

What if everyone stopped producing things and all they did was print money?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:47 | 3596791 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The best part is we won't need wheelbarrows to carry our currency as we can stash billions on our thumb drives to breeze through Jack In The Box  for a hundred grand burger...served by robots.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 16:08 | 3596869 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

+1 LOL. Four puns in there... Let me add to it:

The best part is we won't need wheelbarrows to carry our currency as we can stash billions on our thumb drives to breeze through Jack In The Box  for a hundred grand  horsemeat burger...served by robots.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:13 | 3596694 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Just as all those Greeks, Spaniards, Portugese, Turks, and the rest piled in there. 

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:13 | 3596696 walküre
walküre's picture

Ever occured to anyone that common people are not bankers and therefore, don't subscribe to taking on ever more leverage in order to consume ever more? In other words, common people are not parasitic.

This cannot be emphasized enough. People don't want more debt even when that debt is nearly free or at a low rate. It still goes against the fiber of common human beings as debt also means servitude.

People are commonly not ruthless and willing to take on as much debt or leverage as they possibly can.

Maybe if the CBs deployed cash straight into people's bank accounts, then people might spend it. But I'm pretty sure that many people would still keep the money in that account just to make sure that it wasn't deposited there by mistake and getting recalled later.

Central Bankers as all bankers have a corrupted mindset. The straight thinking individual can be corrupted to a degree but there's still a difference between a sane individual with a tendency to be corrupt and a psychopath who is corrupt through and through.

That is what we're dealing with.

Blow up the casinos. Fire the bankers and reinstate sound money from the people for the people and let's see where this economy can go from there.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:48 | 3596794 worldtraveler
worldtraveler's picture

Sure, common people do not max out their credit cards and don't take out second mortgages and we could trust them to be capable to a better job than Bernanke...

 

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:57 | 3596828 walküre
walküre's picture

True. Some people get into debt over their head for various reasons. But my point remains that debt no matter at what price is just not for everyone.

Reality is that wages are going down considerably. Hours worked have gone down. You've got whole populations on life support. Desperate people will take the handouts given the circumstance.

But the cheap credit is offered to people who've got good credit, have all they need and don't want to take on (more) debt no matter how cheap it is. That has to irk the banks which is why the cheap money policies are stopping at the bank doors. They would give the money to less qualified debtors but they can't.

The CBs policies have achieved two things:

1) Discriminate against debtors who would really need the money and their participation in the economy would really spur the economy on

2) Qualified debtors refuse to take on more debt for whatever reason and they're lack of interest is not creating the flow of credit into the economy the CBs were hoping for

Only solution is to upgrade certain debtors and flush them with credit even when they can't repay but at least that money is put to use and will stimulate the economy.

I know it's fucked up but we live in fucked up times where insanity rules. The money has been created and is now collecting dust. What's that good for?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:50 | 3596802 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Yes, I don't know about the rest of you but I never did get my Obamabucks, and I check the mail every day...nothing. Free money, thats the answer and with digital money we can't even build a fire to warm ourselves with it. A truely valueless currency. Not even good for wallpaper.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 18:55 | 3597254 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Blow up the casinos. Fire the bankers and reinstate sound money from the people for the people and let's see where this economy can go from there.

The people can't hande money, you don't belive me....then please explain massive credit card debt.....please explain how people with low incomes have several credit cards and most if not all of them maxed out, Joe Blow the money manager.....You make I laugh!

Sat, 05/25/2013 - 17:24 | 3598787 dunce
dunce's picture

The bankers do not have giant debt on their personal balance sheets, only the banks liabilities in the form of pensions ,stock options , and differed compensation.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:17 | 3596705 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

"What difference does it make !!" The left wing fascists will just have to print moar. It's no big deal. 

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:20 | 3596710 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

If it sputters quantitative ease it.
If it stalls stimulate it.
If it contracts re-hypothecate it

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 16:11 | 3596875 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

If it yellows let it mellow.

If it's brown ... flush it down.

 

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:24 | 3596718 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

I will eat weinerschnitzel tonite if the Markets close Red.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:29 | 3596734 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      Just in time for the "summer riot season". I have a hunch southern Europe is going to blow up again. The Brits are about ready to go all in after that soldier got killed. It's just a matter of time.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:39 | 3596763 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Yes it feels like Storm the Bastille time here

That is a great thing about Europe, actually ... we still have people in the streets and general strikes, and the capability of bringing down governments in a matter of days ... and we don't have the police state repression aided by vicious courts and mass imprisonment, like in the US

Seems to me that people in the streets, are much more the core of populism and democracy, than just 'voting'

There is an electric positive feel in the streets when people are getting together to demonstrate here ... the government in fear of the people

---

Whereas one act of resistance that US Prez Obama mentioned the other day, that most Americans have already forgotten, is American suicide bomber Joe Stack flying his plane into the IRS building in Texas in 2010

Obviously Joseph Andrew Stack III in his death, did leave quite an impression on the US leaders, if not on the US people

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:51 | 3596803 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Go down in august, be free in september.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 16:58 | 3597004 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Hintern vergewaltigung anhängig!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 17:52 | 3597136 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Germany is very different from the US. The Germans think of themselves as Germans, not Europeans or anything else. They care about their country and people as a whole regardless how assnine their politicians and bankers might be. In the US, we no longer strongly identify with any geographical group or culture (other than maybe the Jews). The vast majority of us do not think or care about what is good for the whole of our people ... and certainly our politicians and bankers do not give it a first thought. So we are lost and directionless and open to be conned into the social meme of the day, the war of the month and the bubble/get-rich-quick scheme of the decade. We have been divided, subdivided and conquered by a class of psychopathss who are at the apex of self-serving paracitism.

Kinda sucks to be us ... and yet we have a great country with wonderful individual people who are aching to show what they can do. If only we had real leadership.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 19:25 | 3597324 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Kinda sucks to be us ... and yet we have a great country with wonderful individual people who are aching to show what they can do. If only we had real leadership.

And as long as you keep electing selfserving party hacks and conmen it can only get worse, as a young person I had great admiration and respect for America, as an old guy, you have my sympathy and scant hope.

Sat, 05/25/2013 - 05:37 | 3598051 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

I don't feel that way about America, but I'm sick and tired of hyphenated types that do...

Sat, 05/25/2013 - 07:23 | 3598091 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Japan: Machine Tool Orders drop 24.1% in April
14 May 2013
, Barcelona (FXstreet)
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=9a1a3862-e849-440f-8a0c-0b10e0d164f8

The preliminary Machine Tool Orders released today by the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association showed a 24.1% decline in April, up from the 26.1% drop registered the previous month.

Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JNMTOY:IND

Sat, 05/25/2013 - 17:27 | 3598794 dunce
dunce's picture

Serial double digit declines, ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for you sucker.

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