The Housing UnRecovery Is Here: Architectural Billings Plunge Most Since 2008

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Not only is this 'housing recovery' being built without the use of Lumber (as we explained here), but Architects are no longer useful either. The last two months - as homebuilder stocks surge and house prices spike - has seen Architectural billings plunge by the most since November 2008. The current level of activity is at its lowest since June 2012 - hardly indicative of the rampaging rapacious demand for homes that we are spoon-fed day after day...

 

 

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Fri, 05/24/2013 - 08:56 | 3595477 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

another "Summer Of unRecovery" courtesy of Joe Biden and Uncle Sam

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:01 | 3595503 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gas over $4 as well here now too...and haven't really heard a peep about it his time. I guess all the media has abandoned anything that might be 'bad for stawks'.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:04 | 3595512 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Gas spike right on schedule....the Thursday before Memorial Day. They just keep taunting us.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:07 | 3595521 fonzannoon
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I'm in NY and it's $3.67. Where is it over $4 other than Kalifornia?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:08 | 3595528 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's $3.90 here in Indiana.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:12 | 3595536 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

For regular? Or do you put high test in your maserati?

$3.90? Wow.

You guys have it all wrong. You need to move to NY. It's Utopia here right now. Money flying out of people's asses. I keep jumping but I can't catch any yet. Hopefully soon. Anyway get out here. It's great, you get a free Weiner.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:23 | 3595570 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Is 3.9 the price of gas, or the maximum magazine capacity you're allowed...I can never remember.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:24 | 3595575 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

my magazines are GQ and Esquire.

I sincerely hope u guys know I am just fkin around.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:37 | 3595617 Agent P
Agent P's picture

"You need to move to NY. It's Utopia here..."

Anyone who says that is either just fkin around or a NY politician...and I didn't have you pegged as a politician. ;)

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:40 | 3595626 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

lol everyone in NY is a politician.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:26 | 3595586 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maserati...That's funny. You don't see a lot of those around where I live.  I don't recall ever seeing one the whole time I've lived here. I have seen a Lamborghini though. I think it was somebody just passing through wondering WTF they got themselves into.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:31 | 3595600 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

That was Slaughterer

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:15 | 3595538 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Well, it's $7.76 over here in germany ... you are getting close ...

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:19 | 3595558 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Guess who has Germany's gold? NY. It just keeps gettin better and better over here.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:25 | 3595578 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

"has" or "had?"

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:38 | 3595620 Acet
Acet's picture

"Says it has"

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:59 | 3595682 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

as of right now it's still the other way around.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 11:41 | 3596003 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

 

Well maybe they "leased" it  . . . to someone who sold it.  That's as good as gold right? 

Seriously, how do you sell (i.e. transfer title) something you don't own (it's leased, you don't have title to transfer).  Gold "leasing" is an accounting fraud on its face.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:22 | 3595564 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

UK average about £1.35/litre x 3.785 x 1.51 = $7.72 per US gallon

But most new cars do 50 - 70 miles per gallon now. Time to sell my car.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:27 | 3595582 pavman
pavman's picture

Its $4.05 in Chicago's cheaper (e.g. subsidized) suburbs.  Its $4.15 in the richer burbs, most likely $4.30+ in the city itself.

 

Crook county indeed.  I never get why its so high here...RBOB is only $2.82 WTF Chuck.

 

Derp ... no way to delete this post :'(

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:10 | 3595719 glenlloyd
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ethanol blend (cheapest) was $3.90 in Des Moines, now $3.86. Diesel running $3.69 and some places $3.57. Been a long time since gasoline has been higher than diesel.

the one good thing about the price increase is that it stopped discussion at the state level of raising the gas tax (again).

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:27 | 3595588 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I hear donkey carts are really economical, but of course you have that CO2 problem to deal with. Good luck fitting that catalytic converter.

Third world regression. Bin Laden is winning.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:41 | 3595632 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I'm paying about $6.93 for the cheap stuff in Switzerland , a hell of a lot better than the $10/gallon a few years ago (ironically pre-CHF-EUR peg).

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:41 | 3595633 Oleander
Oleander's picture

Taxachusetts is where you oughta  be... gas is $3.48 here.  Houses are selling like silver eagles. Heating oil is $3.08.   

*The Boston Herald claims real estate is selling at record rates. The Boston suburbs should not be used to relect conditions in the rest of the state.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:21 | 3595748 insanelysane
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Last 3 senate presidents convicted, not accused, convicted of crimes.  Lt Gov quitting suddenly.  Place is just run by psychopaths that are voted in by people who believe they are smarter than everyone else in the world.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:09 | 3595529 Headbanger
Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:31 | 3595597 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

ROTFLMAO......

LOL...I thought all that Shale Oil in the Dakota's was going to help bring down fuel prices......but look how "HOT" they are up there.

LOL !!!!!!   It's not about supply bitchez....it's all about the cost of extracting that dirty shit with expensive techniques.  Frack this....suckaz !

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:10 | 3595689 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Not to mention this stupid, smirking spokes-bitch for the shale oil and natural gas cabal touting all the high paying jobs......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C57m2va1FXw

Sure....but I bet you DID NOT KNOW Dakotans, is that the oil and natural gas crowd were going to suck away a large portion of your "good paying jobs" income in increased fuel and energy prices because of your energys demands in driving to work, using the heavy diesel equipment, keeping the lights on 24/7 and all the Wal-Marts and stores downtown because there are SO MANY of you rushing to get to the OIL BOOM.....not to mention all the heavy equipment needed to put down petrolium based asphalt to build new roads much less fix the ones you guys are destroying ever more quickly than before.

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction....sometimes worse.

Consequences are a bitch.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:10 | 3595530 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Illinois (not Chicago).  Technically it's not $4, but $3.999 is close enough for government work.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:26 | 3595585 pavman
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Its $4.05 in Chicago's cheaper (e.g. subsidized) suburbs.  Its $4.15 in the richer burbs, most likely $4.30+ in the city itself.

 

Crook county indeed.  I never get why its so high here...RBOB is only $2.82 WTF Chuck.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:30 | 3595599 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

$4.19 in Chicago suburbs.  $4.49 if you venture into the city. 

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:05 | 3595700 TahoeBilly2012
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$4.50 in Tahoe, but worth every penny!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:47 | 3595843 TheEdelman
TheEdelman's picture

In OC over 4/gal.  Its great right now too.  Brand new bentleys, maseratis, lambos, ferraris, porshe cayennes (wives drive these ones)...  all over the roads. Its 2005 all over again.  

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:51 | 3595853 TheEdelman
TheEdelman's picture

except this time..maybe... the richies may be just trying to use up whatever fiat they can??? 

 

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:16 | 3595732 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

It's basically $3.79-3.99 in MI, OH, IN.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:29 | 3595784 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

maybe they are using less qualified firms that charge a lot less...like castanza and assc.....

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:18 | 3595541 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Architectural Billings Index web site:

http://www.aia.org/practicing/economics/aias076265

The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months. The indexes are developed from the monthly Work-on-the-Boards survey panel where participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended. According to the proportion of respondents choosing each option, a score is generated, which represents an index value for each month.

So this index is for non-residetial buildings. Unfrtuantely it is not a measure of the dollar value nor number of projects billed but only the number of architects seeing more, less or the same activity.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:30 | 3595593 pavman
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That's because, technically, you don't need an architect to build a house.  It doesn't hurt tho.  Architects are only required for buildings used by the public (e.g. pretty much everything but a house, shed, barn, and such).  Dam monopolists!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 11:58 | 3596077 saltine
saltine's picture

I'm a successful architect in the Maryland suburbs of DC. I'm a sole practioner and do small scale corporate and commercial work, mostly office space, computer rooms, labs and other techincal spaces. I've been in the profession for 40 years and in business for 25 years+. Business is not dead-in-the-water but its close. Current conditions are on par with 1973/4, 1991, 2001 and 2008/9. I'm starting to get calls from general contractor's looking for work which means (if they are starting to call small shops like mine) their backlog is drying up. Of course this eventually will affect the GC's subcontractors and material suppliers. 

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 13:02 | 3596232 JayKitsap
JayKitsap's picture

I'm a structural engineer near Seattle.  I've done the structural on 3 houses > $10M.  The last $1M or higher house I did was 08.  I did the structural on 0 Architect designed houses in 12, but 2 already this year.  Only did 4 houses total each in 11 & 12, done 5 new houses this year.  Commercial construction has fully tanked, one builder I do work for (he either uses me or a designer vs Archi for most of the design) had 70 jobs open on the books in 2009, now has 7 foremen in a couple of crews.

Now the Navy work I do is also drying up as that was the first thing cut with the sequester.  In some ways it is worse than 2008-9 as there was a backlog then and not all jobs died.  Now all the backlog is gone and nobody really wants to invest - I wouldn't either.

I think 81 in Detroit and 85 in Denver were steeper potholes, but there was a climb out.  Within months the new jobs recovered.  Now I wonder if it ever will.  What happens when interest rates go up a couple of %.  

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:18 | 3595556 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I thought Joe was hyper focused on gun control?

Where has he been lately?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:22 | 3595566 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I found Joe.

MSM has him doing a cameo on Jeopardy but he was actually at UPenn insulting China.

http://www.ibtimes.com/joe-bidens-upenn-commencement-address-upsets-chinese-international-students-1277145#

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:41 | 3595630 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I couldn't take that rambling imbecile long enough to see how he insulted the Chinese.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:37 | 3595814 auntiesocial
auntiesocial's picture

It gets worse. Supply and Demand do not dictate an honest fair market value in many if not all major markets. The banks are holding back properties, I mean a freaking boatload, not just a handful, and if they were all released onto the market to give people a real market value, the over inflated prices that are held together by the neglect of reporting reo's, fc's would a come a tumblin' down. Which they should. But this ain't real capitalism at play now is it?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 11:23 | 3595960 PiltdownMan
Fri, 05/24/2013 - 08:57 | 3595479 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

...Cause you don't need an architect to build a tent.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 08:59 | 3595487 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

The offset here is a huge increased demand for corrugate manufacturers.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:01 | 3595499 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Slowdown in housing means fewer refrigerator boxes to house the homeless.  Vicious circle...

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:07 | 3595523 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

We don't need no steenkeen permits to build a tent gringo....

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:18 | 3595739 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Caves are in high demand. 

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