Spot The Trend In US Durable Goods And CapEx Spending

Tyler Durden's picture


Today's headline Durable Goods number came, largely as expected, solidly positive. After all, following last month's revised -5.9% sequential collapse, there was only one it could go. However, even so the broad number was largely driven by the usual volatile series: transportation and defense spending. On the other hand, the picture om pure Capital Spending land was mixed, with Cap Goods orders non-defense ex aircraft beating expectations of a 0.5% print at 1.2%, while Shipments missed, dropping from +0.5% to -1.5% and missing expectations of a -0.5% print. There is one big caveat: as usual, April always has been a big down month on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Which means the headline scanning algos were more focused on the ARIMA X 12 adjustments than the underlying data.

So in order to crystalize the underlying trends, we have present the four key data series in a simple year over year basis. The trend is very clear.

Durable Goods:


Durable Goods ex transports:


Capex: Core Capital Goods Shipments:


Capex: Core Capital Goods Orders:

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Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:17 | 3595543 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Why do we keep talking about "Ex-Defense"?

The GWOT will go on forever; ergo, prosperity will continue indefinitely.

As long as we develop a better way to destroy the f'k out of everyone else, they'll keep funding our bar tab!


Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:18 | 3595555 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Someday this war is gonna end!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:23 | 3595572 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Tyler, I figured out what you've been doing wrong all this time - turn your monitor UPSIDE DOWN like everyone else does and everything will be fine!

Don't fight the borg!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:25 | 3595579 B2u
B2u's picture

I keep trying to turn over the graph, but it keeps orienting with the monitor.  I cannot get it to stop.  I am dizzy now.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:35 | 3595613 SMG
SMG's picture

"The trend is very clear."

Oh wait I know, BULLISH right?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:39 | 3595625 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

of course, all that resistance to levitation will clearly result in a high momentum breakout!  place your bets, all in?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:52 | 3595655 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

How does weaponry, our economic staple, benefit from the Small Arms Treaty?  Will we have to increase exportation of Large Arms?  

Our future is so bright, it almost looks like a nuclear explosion...

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:41 | 3595629 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

B2u, you just need to drink more alcohol, maybe a fifth a day, and everything will be fine - trust me


Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:23 | 3595573 robochess
robochess's picture

in a mushroom cloud. Count on it.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:25 | 3595576 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

We need a war on obesity. There are too many fat people in this country. Too much money has been wasted on them. They should face two choices: lose weight or go into the gas chamber.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:03 | 3595604 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's funny you said that. I went to my daughters eighth grade graduation yesterday, and everywhere I looked where some fat assed people. I was leery of sitting on the bleachers thinking that the lard asses would collapse them.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 11:06 | 3595902 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

That shit is raciss yo! You banned! Or is it "Size-ist"?

You banned! I'm banned! Everybody be banned! Attica! Attica!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:32 | 3595605 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Yeah, and who is to decide who's to live and who's to die? Lean people like you, or what? Go home! The last try didn't end so well about 70 years ago. Are you aware that you would perish in exactly the same gas chamber very fast? Because you may not be obese, but trust me, they would find some reason to murder you, too, in no time. You obviously haven't the slightest clue what you are talking about ...

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:36 | 3595612 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have zero problem with overweight people, I have a problem with my health insurance premium. So, in a way, I guess I do have a problem...

The problem with Eigen, is he still has not figured out what happens when we declare war on something.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:55 | 3595638 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

I understand. But being german and a few years older I react quite allergic to any mention of gas chambers. I've been there, saw it with my own lying eyes, and I am ashamed of it, even if I weren't alive when it happened. And you can believe me that those murderers Eigen seems to admire so much would have had him disappeare very quickly. Through a chimney ...  (By way of exception this is no sarc.)

edit: obviously some anonymous downvoting buttfuckers believe I shouldn't have trusted my own lying eyes. Come on, you suckers, put up some arguments, I dare you!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 11:08 | 3595911 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

The gas chambers were for de-licing, not for killing people. Do some research.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 11:49 | 3596057 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Didn't you read my comment above? I've been there myself! Have seen it with my own lying eyes. And not just at one single place. If the chambers were not for killing - what were the ovens for? Maybe it's not me who should do some more research ... and don't try to tell me that my grandpa, who was there at the time as a soldier in the "Wehrmacht" has told me all lies, and there was no one killed ...

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 12:17 | 3596124 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

So you saw gas chambers and someone told you they were used to kill people and that's the end of it? And you saw some ovens while someone told you they were used to cremate thousands of people a day, even though that would have been impossible because of the time and coal requirements, and that's the end of that too?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 14:18 | 3596485 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

So, what happen to the 6 million Jewish peoples who turned up missing in Europe after WW2???? 

Hmmm..  were could they have gone??? <sarc>

I know, they never existed to start off with, it is all made up!<sarc>

Seriously, is this possible? I didn't witness these events with my own "lying eyes", so yes your argument/reasoning is "possible".

However, given the weight of the historical evidence (number of eye witness, data the Germans collect and kept on the Jews they killed, and the physical evidence of the engineering drawings and camps, plus the mass graves) your argument/reasoning has a very low PROBABILITY of being accurate.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 15:13 | 3596697 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

You tell me. It was originally claimed by the hoaxers that 4 million of the so-called 6 million died in Aucshwitz, now they say 1 million died at Auschwitz but the hoaxers still claim the 6 million total. And who told you 6 million jews turned up missing after the war? Did you research that?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:53 | 3595659 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

All of this goes back to one simple fucking rule; everyone should suffer the consequences for their own bad behavior.  Why in the hell should people who make good decisions regarding their health pay for those who don't?  Not sustainable, crash this motherfucker already, the sooner we do the sooner we can sort it all out.  In the meantime, everything will continue to "beat expectations" all the way down...

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:00 | 3595679 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

I agree that everyone should face the consequences of their own behaviour. But I can't imagine why said consequence should be being put into a gas chamber by someone else. That's plain murder and does not make anyone healthier.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:02 | 3595683 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Where do I say anything about a "gas chamber" asshole?  I believe in the individual, eigenvalue is an idiot and another individual altogether.  Let me guess another sheep for the collective bullshit mentality.  Go fuck yourself.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:07 | 3595706 PlausibleDenial
PlausibleDenial's picture

LOP, take it easy dude.  I like your comments, but geeezzzz, you have a hair trigger temper....

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:53 | 3595720 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

edit: At first glance I was very angry about you calling me asshole, and answered accordingly. But now, coming to think of it, I regard that as a misunderstanding. I should have made clear, that the "gas-chamber" part of my comment was dedicated to Eigenvalue, not you. Nonetheless you shouldn't instantly insult me. And just for the record: I despise the "collective bullshit mentality" at least as much as you do. I cannot bar you from thinking of me as a sheep - but I strongly disagree on that.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 11:37 | 3596009 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

This is the fundamental problem with people today, they insult another individual (claiming they don't understand why), then act "suprised" by getting insulted in return.  Apology accepted.  Seems to me the more "politically correct" the world becomes the more "morally corrupt" it is.  Sad.  Kids need to put down the electronic shit and start dealing with each other face-to-face, this is a huge part of the problem.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:13 | 3595726 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Cripes, lighten up.  I read it that the guy was referring to eiginvalid, even if the paragraph subordination was off. 


Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:42 | 3595634 Doubledown201_
Doubledown201_'s picture


Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:35 | 3595808 tmosley
tmosley's picture

C'mere wee man, I'm gonna eat ya!

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:28 | 3595590 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Oh, so it's all bullshit, only orders, but no shipments.

Carry on.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:34 | 3595609 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Someday this war is gonna end!"


Good thing too.....the next one is RIGHT around the 3...2...1...

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 11:03 | 3595893 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

One of the BEST lines from a movie full of great lines! Where's Big Duke Six?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:15 | 3595545 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Firearms must not qualify as a durable good.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 10:15 | 3595727 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

"... Non Defense ..."

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:17 | 3595553 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

We're just taking a little break.  For about a generation or two.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:20 | 3595560 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Data? The only thing that matters is the du jour sound bite and whichever algos are responding to it.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:22 | 3595568 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Wait, I know...a gigantic inverse head-and-shoulders pattern?


Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:25 | 3595581 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The trend is downward until it hits negative territory, then the trend becomes "make numbers up so that we get above 0%" then rinse, wash, repeat.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:26 | 3595584 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Spot The Trend In US Durable Goods And CapEx Spending

Damn, I hate it when Tyler gives us a test. Ummm, let me get back to you on that one.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:27 | 3595589 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

Once they readjust the GDP back to 1929....and sprinkle in some promises to buy things - all will be fine.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:28 | 3595591 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Well...Okay...So this is the Durable Goods and CapEx for Amerika...Where is the report for the Utopian world of Cramerica, where credible leadership reigns?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:30 | 3595595 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

OT and chilling news item from Britian:

"09.45 Two men have been released on bail following their arrest for making alleged offensive comments on Twitter about the death of Lee Rigby.

A 23-year-old and a 22-year-old, both from Bristol, were held under the Public Order Act on suspicion of inciting racial or religious hatred after police received complaints about comments posted on the social networking site."

Since the holding company for ZH is based in London, perhaps folks should cut the Tylers some slack for their recent rules regarding comments here.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:34 | 3595610 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I've been gone for awhile and had no idea there were recent rules on ZH. Rules on what?

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:47 | 3595651 dolph9
dolph9's picture

I respect Tyler if he wants to keep things civil, after all this is a site about the financial system.  Still, race does intersect with the financial system in important ways.

I suppose we're just going to have to go to amren, stormfront, and related sites to comment on this.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 13:25 | 3596324 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture


ABC Media Ltd
P.O. Box 3
Sofia, Sofia 1784

Domain name: ZEROHEDGE.COM

Administrative Contact:
Hristozov, Georgi
P.O. Box 3
Sofia, Sofia 1784
+359 2 875 35 99
Technical Contact:
Hristozov, Georgi
P.O. Box 3
Sofia, Sofia 1784
+359 2 875 35 99

Regardless of what the ADL says, racism is not the same as speaking the truth.  Racism is throwing all of a race into a pot of evil because of a few bad souls.  Know your enemy.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 13:46 | 3596376 jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

I didn't know anything about that. At the bottom of the page it reads

Similar articles you may enjoy

Well I don't enjoy anyone telling me what I can or cannot say. So to all that want to keep my lips in a mousetrap well fuck you.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 13:48 | 3596383 jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

Oh yeah I'm not walking around 24/7 dropping the N bomb but I sure as hell can't hear a black man talk for 20 seconds without saying it.

Word police can just go fuck themselves.

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 13:53 | 3596395 jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

"I'm Eric DickHolder and I don't approve of the free speech message."

Fri, 05/24/2013 - 09:40 | 3595622 pavman
pavman's picture

What rules... ?  Yo, I signed up when there were no rules..  I'm grandfathered in.  F'da rul3z bitchez.



Any user found to be discriminating against ANY race, religion, or affiliation, will be banned immediately, and have their comments removed from the system.

So what your saying is when I dis the Federal Reserve, you can now ban me for discriminating against an affiliation?  Holy crap-on-stick batman!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!