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Name This European Nation
The following chart represents the all-time record-low household confidence of a European nation (which, in the last month, fell at the second fastest rate in 20 years).
This nation's equity market is near pre-crisis highs having rallied over 37% in the last 11 months. This nation's bond market risk is near post-crisis lows with its spread having halved in the last year.
Name that Nation...
The answer, perhaps unsurprisingly, is 'France'.
Simply put, French households have never been more depressed in terms of their economic confidence - in perfect anti-thesis from the euphoria of their capital markets.
Why is this such a problem? Because consumption - that staple of economic growth - is so highly correlated to household confidence, it is likely that this all-time low print signals a third quarter in a row of declining retail sales. Households’ propensity to make important purchases was also at its lowest level since 2008.
This, of course, will come as no surprise to ZH readers as we have explained (most recently here and here) just what the reality is in France and here how vast the yawning divide is in the supposed core of Europe.
Charts: Bloomberg
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"The answer, perhaps unsurprisingly, is 'France'" - article Tag was a dead giveaway ;)
Alex, What is France
The French are their own worst enemy, which given their past doesnt bode well.
France is Bacon
When in doubt, surrender! Big sales in France this week on white flags...
In France
We're playin' in a tent
It's payin' the rent
If you persevere,
It's amazing you can
In France
Way down in France
Way on down
Way on down
In France
The girls is all salty
The boys is all sweet
The food ain't too shabby,
An' they piss in the street
In France
Way down in France
Way on down
Way on down
In France
They got diseases
Like you never seen
Got a mystery blow-job
Turn your pee to green
In France
Way down in France
Way on down
Way on down
In France
They got some coffee,
Eatin' right through the cup,
An' when you go ka-ka
They make you stand up
In France
Way down in France
Way on down
Way on down
In France
If you're not careful,
It'll stick to your cheek
You'll smell like a native
For a couple of week
In France
Way down in France
Way on down
Way on down
In France
We cannot wait
Till we go back
It gets so exciting
When the poodles 'react'
In France
Way down in France
Way on down
Way on down
In France
Never try to get yo' penis sucked
In France
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CM_lXwJpZCg
aux armes citoyens!
hollande ta loi on en veux pas!
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x109n1h_26-mai-2013-manif-pour-tous-amb...
Camembert !
This Blonde might have an answer for you
France will be a really big deal in the blow-up of the euro-zone, because France must and will separate from the Germanic north, along with the other Mediterranean countries
France will be ok once they jettison the Germanic euro ... they have always been smart in preparation and self-sufficiency, quite 'survivalist' really
France has colossal surplus agriculture, they have tons of cheap nuclear energy, and they have industry ... after leaving the euro and kicking their bloated bureaucracy in the arse, they will prosper
The French - German split will truly signify the reversal of the EU 'Project' ... and we will go back to what the EU was before 1999, an easy trading and open-customs region
Large immigrant population complicates France's prognosis.
If they are smart - they will start issuing one way tickets to leave. Anyone know if Total will be reselling the huge nat gas field off Cyprus? The Cypriots get robbed by the EU even though they have a nat gas field off the coast that can provide Europe all the nat gas it needs for the next 50 years.
sorry, but as soon as you start to rave about the EUR your otherwise quite good comments switch over to the borderline insane, imho
France is truly depressed. It has elected a socialist as President but he somehow can't really apply socialist remedies to the Grande Nation because it's GDP is already somewhere in the ballpark of 55%... nationalized - and the French realize that expanding their budget deficits won't "fix" anything
meanwhile the "bloated bureaucracy" of the EU has nothing to do with France's ailment - the sad thing is that it's all about their own labour market (with some additional issues with their tax code) coupled with the fact that the whole world is in the throes of the Great Depression
French-German split... sure. "Germanic euro"... quite so. I wish I'd understand how old you are, or, better, where you grew up - it would give me a better insight in why you think so
all this without malice, it was by taking you seriously that I realized that you are 100% right about the US Prison-Industrial Complex, and I can't thank you enough for that
"it was by taking you seriously that I realized that you are 100% right about the US Prison-Industrial Complex, and I can't thank you enough for that"
Missed that one. What did he say?
sorry, I haven't saved the links and I believe it was nearly two years ago. nevertheless as a continental european that hasn't seen the US since the 80's, had first difficulties to believe what he was writing about. but I researched a bit and "Bank Guy in Brussels" was right on the spot, on a theme that I don't even see in ZH
except if I'm reading all this FEMA camps comments stuff wrong - am I?
imho it's fact is that the PIC is a huge corruption cancer. the perfect explanation why leaving certain things to "markets" (fuelled by tax money) is the wrong way to tackle certain problems (again, imho). at the end, they are nothing else than working camps, or, better, gulags
which leads me to ask: why is this not a scandal?
imho, that's a rather old theme,
ie a rehash of dickensian workhouses.
what these two glorious epochs have in common
is a large structural shift brought by technology
(industrial revolution, financialisation) supported
by a predatory deregulation and expropriation
of commons rights to the benefit of a mercantilist
few (physical land clearances, debt serfdom).
It's not a scandal because it's a Govt. supplied solution to homelessness and jobs creation due to the failure of a market based economy that was destroyed by Govt. favoritism and nonexistent law enforcement.
Make sure you're early in to get a top bunk. Low number entrants also get first shot as trustees with extra rations.
Too bad the Board of Directors and the Labor supply job spots are already taken.
Thanks.
I've only seen rumors, along with pics of sites that could be preparing for concentration camp type activity.
I guess we'll find out soon enough, eh?
"and we will go back to what the EU was before 1999" sadly history does not work that way, when was the last time 2 warring factions just went back a few decades in their relations and lived happily ever after ? Never!
"...and kicking their bloated bureaucracy in the arse, they will prosper"
Pray, how can France do that, given that it is and always has been a VERY Statist nation?
Big Government is systemic in France. Millions of people rely on The Almighty State for their wellbeing.
correct, +1. the whole "bloated" grandeur of the EU "Civil Service" boasts roughly 30'000 employees
the French Civil Service, in comparison, has only some piddly 2.2 million employees (1.6m "core") (1999 numbers)
But the scumy EU bureaucracy doesn't do absolutely anything except to conspire with the lobbyists and spend time in meetings,
If the EU had 27 employees (not 27K) that would be too much.
Il est vrai que votre système de santé est tout à fait enviable.
I downvoted you because France's problems are deeper than that. First let's start with demographics. Not too bad compared to other developed countries but still more retirees to come. These retirees have benefited tremenduously from the high inflation of the 70s, are the home owners, and it's comonplace for a middle class to have at least one extra flat to rent. Their income surplus is usually reinvested in housing, not stocks nor bonds. So the capital situation is 7 trillion euros in Housing, less than 2 in bonds and long term capital, and less than 1 trillion euros in stocks. Basically, your average french spares a lot, which means a huge divide between old and youngs (http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/tableau.asp?reg_id=0&ref_id=nattef08148).
In turn, and with the addition of completely misleaded gouvernment (ca. 45billions €/year) subsidies that please the majority of homeowners, this makes the french housing market too expensive, which means that basically workers below 40-45 have to pay huge sums to rent a house or pay their debt. This makes it impossible to have low wage jobs, as low wage would not be enough to pay for a rent or to buy a house (strict regulation on the income/debt payment ratio).
So what we need is not to quit the euro, it is to bust the housing bubble, and once housing becomes affordable again, to enable lower wages. Quite simple.
It suffices to persuade the older voters, those who participate most to elections, to give away their huge gains on housing so that we can later have lower wages and more employment. And whatever the color of the gouvernment, this won't happen before crisis truly hits France. But once it hits, I am confident we will deal with our problems in the long term.
Thank you for your explication of the French situation...
it is a wise and measured analysis... right up to the last paragraph...
and then, I greatly fear... you have thrown it all away
... in the classic style of the grand and futile gesture... so unmistakably Francaise!
what cannot be maintained will not be maintained. French's labor revenues are insufficient to maintain the current cost of housing. Recall that of the 90+ billion € of the state deficit, half is subsidies to housing. So the gouvernment, simply because it can, pump money into this bubble. When it won't be able to afford it, prices will crash. The question is not when (quite soon, if ZH is not too wrong on its call on France), but how. Exiting the euro to have a high inflation (in francs terms) is one possibility of reducing the gap between housing cost and labor revenus. But mainstream parties won't want this. So either you stay mainstream, don't play with the money, and have to burst the housing bubble, or you go with the fringes (both fronts), and destroy the money just as the US has done, to obtain in the end the same result. Main change is that with Front de Gauche civil servants will profit (unlimited credit access to the state with a financing straight from the NCB), and with Front National (exit of euro, and thus huge gains for those who have parked their money abroad).
these demographics are a pan-european model.
either we have a cannibalistlic society where the old
deny the youth, or we flip back to a multi-generational
model, or we go full on soylent green.
the thing is, multi generational families made sense when
when elders provided valuable stores of lore, skills, and wisdom.
never has the older generation been so irrelevant and outstripped
with the fast pace of technological acumen, and yet never have they
held such a tight choke hold on equity and rentier incomes.
unless you price your nanas's nannying hours at the same as your
mortgage or lease, this is a catastrophic losing proposition for the
youth.
I'm a big fan of greens. they taste good.
I'm partial to Georges Friedman's take that France's main edge
is its capacity to be both North Atlantic and Mediteranean.
I'm sure they would be loathe to cede that position.
Thanks for the laugh!
"France will be ok once they jettison the Germanic euro ... they have always been smart in preparation and self-sufficiency, quite 'survivalist' really"
Ohohoohojohoho that's RICH!
France's 50 year bond has a lower yield than our 30 year bond. Unfu$%^&ingbelievable.
currency
All of them....given time
ils vont pas vous dire: "une recession comme on s'en est jamais chopée?"
http://youtu.be/fsDAH1fKSTo
What does the population of France, and their confidence levels have to do with equity and bond markets?
You can't eat confidence.
Let them eat the CAC!
+1 nothing, when megabanks are fuelled by moar $ugar - though I have to note that both markets still look slightly more sane than the ones on the other side of the Atlantic... which is not a reason to buy, imho
They are working on a platinum coin with the Eifell tower on it denominated in 3 trillion Euros to be deposited in the central bank for collateral
France is becoming more middle eastern. Time to switch the wine and cheese to prayer rugs.
Non totalement faux, mais raisonner face à de tels délires collectifs ? Inutile.
So is the UK, Sweden, Holland and the USA.
Vive la France............
Je m'en merde avec la France
En Fance nous avons la plus belle des bulles immobilières
There will be revolution because of all the Muslims they let in.
They better do it soon. I have more confidence in them than Americans who have a muzzy leader and are brainwashed by Tv and Hoollywood.
If there is no housing market, let them buy widgets
They will be speaking German or Chinese soon.
I do believe that might be Italy?
Italy?
No, Krugman has let us all know of the Italian miracle. You see, what has worked thus far will always work.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/29/the-italian-miracle/
The only problem with linking a Krugman article / blog is that one almost immediately hits the "X" on the browser upon seeing his mug, or if that's ignored, hitting the "X" after reading the first few sentences, thus losing the page link to ZH.
I think its called right click with mouse, open link in new tab.
Or mentally condition yourself before clicking the link to hit the "Back" button rather than "ctrl + w" when the revulsion kicks in.
But, yeah, I ctrl click the links to open them in a new tab. It lets me keep reading while the other link opens.
Yeah, go ask the family in Italy. I've got an email just yesterday. Unbareable cash shortage and no possibility to get some, not even selling properties: nobody is buying.
They're struggling bad. Gvt's Bonds are low, among other things, because the government settled is "theirs" so things are gonna flow smoothly, unless... people's awakening.
S'il vous plaît versez un verre de Cabernet.
Phoenix!
Eurasia?
France is mostly blacks now isn't it? Like Algeria.
I believe only New Zealand is all black.
at least they perform hakas. wtf do you want to say with your nick? is anti-constitutionalism really that rampant?
Faudrait peut-être voyager un peu mon gars !
http://rutube.ru/video/67e91712793c53833574f39a2be6f2e7/
Black in france? deninitly not a great idea espacielly if you manifest against the king François 16 hollande!
Just finished Stockman's book, The Great Deformation. Wow! He nailed it!
The central planning wealth effect is working. The elites are pie in the sky happy while the proles get bread cumbs and trickled on.
But French is such a beautiful language!
too late first language at school in france become english by law!
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x109ehi_claude-hagege-contre-le-projet-...
the laws mathematics and the business cycle and common sense have been suspended by the printing of money.
HOW WERE OUR ANCESTORS SO STUPID AS TO HAVE FAILED TO FIGURE THIS SIMPLE UNDERSTANDING OUT.
Look around you, forget our ancestors, how can people who are alive TODAY fail to see that which happening NOW.
I think that was his tongue in cheek point. (Why couldn't our ancestors have figured out that printing ever moar pieces of paper with pictures of dead presidents on them would bring great wealth to the people? They must have been pretty stupid to risk their lives sweating and toiling to build out the railroads, highways, bridges and factories, not to mention the mines needed for the raw resources to do so, when a couple of slick economists have given us such a pain free way to grow our wealth.)
At least some of our ancestors figured this out... and even spelled it out for us in quite clear language, then historians recorded how accurate they were...
Despite the common sense refutation of Keynesian something for nothing economics and the repeated demonstration of how catastrophic such stupidity is in the long run, our government bows down in homage to the guy they give a Nobel Prize to even after he admits he and his ilk were completely clueless as to the horrific effects of the policies they were espousing:
How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?
Then they name one of the prime architects of the Fed's catastrophic policies who was 180° wrong in his reassurances that everything was OK in the late stages of the bubble he was blowing, and in the early stages of the inevitable collapse he helped engineer as MAN OF THE YEAR!
Bernanke was wrong while Peter Schiff was right!
We are all Keynesians now. - Nixon, 1971
We are all Nixons now. -Keynesians, 2013
They did. Governments and their criminal friends have been getting rich off the printing of money, and the collapse thereof, for hundreds of years (thousands in China).
French have "assurances vies" : the supreme collateral for creditor !!
Bangladesh?
See Simon Black, hes well versed in the art of travel, I'm more than sure he'll know.
CAC up 1.7%. Let's all sing together.... "Happy Days are Here Again...."
As long as CB print markets go up, nothing else matters.
sunny
Michigan.
"There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.
But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against ‘real’ goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them."
Mises
"... no matter how much money (blood and anguish to be paid by those still unborn) he has to pay for them."
"Everybody" includes the CBs; everything will be financialized, every share will be fair.
Tell me again about all the money that the 20% un/under employed have with gas at $4.00 and food prices going up.
double
Must be running out of other people's money already, eh Prime Minister Hollande?
Lower Slobovia .... main export .... canned bovine flatulance (flatulence ?) decorator accents for the homesick ! Hey ! All removed posts should go to an Archive of Shame location .... where they can be viewed .... after reading a risk disclaimer ? I'm planning to edit my posts in place .... as above .... leave the error for all to see .... add the edit .... honesty in editing .... no fear .... nothing to hide ! Vaporizing posts is so Soviet Style !
removed
Yeah .... and put an asterisk .... to show that a post .... (or "removed") .... has been sent to a relocation FEMA camp .... where it can be easily found .... you moderate .... we decide ?
If France is not part of core Europe anymore, does ''PIGS'' become ''FPIGS'' a.k.a. ''Fucking PIGS''?
PFIGGS, pronounced 'figs'. Germany is aslo now included.
Yes, but prolly only after the UK joins them
The French, like the Americans and the Chinese, believe that they are uniquely qualified to look down on and judge others because of their indisputable superiority in all things that really matter.
comparing the cac to consumers' confidence is not fair, as a lot of the companies in the CAC indice have mostly foreign revenues.
CAC goes higher because of the future growth in the US, in China, in Japan, in Europe,...
Now, I hope everyone is reassured about the solid ground on which higher CAC is founded...
"Does you dog bite?"
"Non, Monsieur!
[dog bites]
"I thought you said your dog does not bite?"
"Ahh, but that is not my dog."
"
La France obtient d'«excellents résultats» dans l'«indicateur du vivre-mieux» qui compare les 34 pays de l'OCDE sur l'emploi, le logement, les revenus mais aussi les liens sociaux ou la satisfaction personnelle.
"
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2013/05/28/20002-20130528ARTFIG00341-...
Mais oui!
The French can solve all their imbalances with a 90% tax on all wealthy French who leave.
...wait a minute...Yeah, that makes sense. Let's do it.
monnet (the european lobbyist) once said to a journalist: "if france is your mother, then mummy's dead a while ago!"
jacques attali( the french"brenzinski") zionist adviser's of all presidents for more than 3 decade said on a tv show "la france est un hotel"
if ther's isn't a revolution starting soon, france on the verge of selling cheap it's army for paying back some of the debt(what make the british smile so much) will end up " for sell" after the civil war that their anti -patriot elite is preparing for them by creating comunity's tension to break the base of the pyramyd into more manageable pieces!
only the military patriots can try something, to me it's more likely france is already the best vitrine of new world order 's overcome!
a society of people who have been betrayed and sold out to the big corp's world governement!
look at president françois hollande what a shame, is it even funny? look at that pussy!
http://rutube.ru/video/32d4e3c392492897e8c63e53724fedef/
all the french have to do is sell Beaulieu on the Riviera to the Chinese and the Eiffel tower to Qatar and they will be back in the black again.
If they sold the Mona Lisa to Warren Buffet and the Louvre to WS...they would be richer than Cathay and more sexy than Rio di Janeiro.
Have a bubbly on me.