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Presenting The Full Impact Of Stock Buybacks On S&P 500 "Earnings"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There has been much speculation in the recent past over what the bottom-line impact of surging stock buyback activity has been on the overall S&P earnings: after all, by removing shares from circulation, the denominator in "per share" calculation gets smaller and smaller with every incremental buyback. Courtesy of JPM we finally have a definitive answer to this long-running question. Of the change in S&P TTM operating earnings between Q3 2011 and the just completed Q1 2013, a stunning 60% or $2.20, of all "gains" of $3.70 have been the result of buybacks. The remainder: a tiny $1.50 is due to actual organic growth. This means that nearly 60% of the bridge between the LTM operating earnings of $94.60 as of Q3 2011 to $98.30 at Q1 2013 has come from corporate management teams engaging in shareholder friendly activity.

 

JPM has more:

[A] way of measuring equity withdrawal is via the share count of major equity index which roughly speaking is equal to the market value of the index divided by the price of the index. Divisor changes reflect changes in outstanding shares due to share buybacks or other corporate actions such as the ones mentioned above. But they also reflect addition or deletion of stocks to the index. If the S&P 500 closes at 1650 and one stock is replaced by another, after the market close, the index should open at 1650 the next morning if all of the opening prices are the same as the previous day’s closing prices. This is achieved with an adjustment to the divisor.

 

The Divisor of the S&P500 Index is shown in Figure 5. This Divisor experienced a massive increase in the 1990s but started falling in 2004 due to strong buyback activity. Between 2004 and 2008 it fell by 7% or almost 2% per annual decline pace. It rose after Lehman due to large share issuance especially by financials and a drying up of share buyback activity. It started declining again in 2011 as share buybacks picked up. Since September 2011 the S&P500 Index Divisor is down by more than 2%.

 

 

The fall in the S&P500 Index Divisor has helped the earnings picture in the US. Had the Divisor remained constant since Q3 2011, the 4-quarter rolling S&P500 Operating Earnings-Per-Share would have only risen by $1.50 instead of the reported $3.70 increase. The S&P500 Operating EPS has risen from $94.60 in Q3 2011 to $98.30 in Q1 2013. Indeed studies have found that managers tend to increase share buybacks in periods of slow earnings growth to boost EPS via shrinking the denominator, i.e. the number of shares.

It gets worse: recall from "Where The Levered Corporate "Cash On The Sidelines" Is Truly Going" that the bulk of the latest credit bubble frenzy is going not to finance actual organic growth, but merely to fund buybacks (see Apple), in an ongoing capital structure (cheap debt, rich equity) arbitrage. As Albert Edwards put it back then: "When the next leg in the "structural bear market" occurs, expect the equity buybacks to end, contributing to a renewed steep downturn in bank borrowing and monetary aggregates. The recent surge in the money data should be seen as a sign of the ills in the US economy, not health!"

While we will not comment on the timing aspects of such buyback surges, this is precisely what JPM has found as well:

But this is not the only distortion share buybacks create. Share buybacks mask weak credit growth in the economy. And this is especially true for the US as 80% of global share buybacks are typically announced by US companies. And these share buybacks are typically financed by debt issuance as even those US companies with large cash holdings appear to be reluctant to repatriate their cash holdings and instead prefer to issue debt to fund share purchases.

 

We have highlighted in the past that US credit growth is tracking a pace that is significantly better than the rest of the G4, i.e. Euro area, UK and Japan. This is not true though if one removes the impact of share buybacks. Figure 6 shows total credit creation i.e. the growth of both household and non financial corporate debt adjusted for share buybacks. In particular at each quarter we subtract the announced share buybacks from gross debt issuance of non financial corporates. Subtraction is capped by total gross debt issuance in each quarter. Figure 6 shows the credit creation in the US and in the G4 x US over time adjusted for share buybacks. US credit creation suffered by more than the rest of the G4 post Lehman due to intense US deleveraging at the time, but  it has been rebounding since 2010. But the level of credit creation excluding share buybacks is not significantly better in the US than in the rest of the G4. The 4-quarter rolling sum of total credit creation was $160bn in the US at the end of the first quarter vs. $60bn in the rest of the G4. So the pace of credit creation is only modestly above zero in both the US and the rest of the G4 and well below 2007 peaks. In 2007 the annual pace of total credit creation exceeded $1tr in both the US and the rest of the G4 (excluding share buybacks).

To summarize: the only real credit creation, excluding the Fed of course, in the US in the past several years has gone to fund what is a slow-burning levered buyout by companies of their own share!

Curious why there is a sense that this no real corporate growth in the US? Because companies are simply not investing in growth, and are instead all engaging in cheap balance sheet arbitrage which makes corporate equities appear richer. The problem is that the debt remains, and once rates finally do go up...

Still feel like bashing corporations for being "stingy" with their cash? Just wait until all of these companies pull a Dole Foods from this morning and realize that the much neglected CapEx spending is far more important for long-term viability, and cut buybacks, and credit creation, to a halt. What happens to the S&P "operating earnings" growth then? JPM hints at precisely this theme we have discussed extensively in the past two years: "The other side effect of elevated dividends and share buybacks is that these distributions to shareholders may reduce the long term potential of the company to grow relative to the alternative of capital spending."

Of course, in the long-term we are all dead so why even bother...

 

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Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:25 | 3604425 DIgnified
DIgnified's picture

Once more again from the top.  This time with feeling. 

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 15:26 | 3604613 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

Well....

You're assuming that most of these companies actually complete their buyback plans. Unfortunately, most don't and merely the annonucement of such will drive some of their equity prices higher.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:30 | 3604437 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe we will get to the point where these companies will buy themselves back out of existance like a snake eating it's tail. One can only hope.

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:54 | 3604507 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

I want to know who, exactly, are the big banks making loans to?

Would it be to only the listed corporations, to enable the stock buybacks?

So, when they report their earnings "beat" ( due to stock buy back ), it is much easier to pay back the loan at ______ rate?

Then, turn around and do it again?

The banks all say they are lending.  I can't seem to find any recipients of said biz loans.  Must just be me.

Surely, the banks wouldn't lie about lending now would they??

I thought we already had this sham figured out. My mistake.

 

Well, goddammit!!!

If Joe Sixpack is broke, then where the fuck is all the "buyback" money comming from??

Mother Fucking Inquiring Minds want to know right fucking now!!!

 

They've been doing this for years...................

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:31 | 3604439 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Totally sustainable.

BTW, this *is* why investors, especially institutional, are really "worried" about QE tapering off.....the majority of the money printed is used so corporations and the institutions that bankroll them can get cheap loans to buyback the stocks they own (and of course the Fed and its own notes).

 

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:34 | 3604448 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

leveraged buyback - take bonus

roll over debt - take bonus

issue new shares to pay off bonds - take bonus

go bankrupt - take bonus

go private - take bonus

go public - take bonus

pump and dump - take bonus

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:34 | 3604454 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Maybe Ben and Barry should just buy the NYSE and NASDAQ - fucking assholes.

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:38 | 3604466 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

BTFD...

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:40 | 3604473 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Can't wait until the 400 wealthiest globalists are behind bars and the United States of America can prosper again.

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:47 | 3604489 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Executives are now being paid in stock options (as a result of the public complaining about executive pay packages, espeically for your TBTF banker), so it is in their best interest to borrow money cheaply and initiate a buy back to raise the price of their company's stock.

Executives at corporations are all looking at what is best short term and what will help everyone in the executive suite get rich quick.

If you look at recent earnings and the failure for some companies to meet expectations, it's almost as if outsourcing jobs and gutting the US consumer class (China PMI is example of this) is not working out for future earnings.

Wait, you mean people need money to buy shit as well as service their debt? You are SHITTING me!

Oh well....seemed like a good idea at the time. #fail

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:49 | 3604495 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

i have no money in my pockets, but i have never felt Richer

 

/SARC

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 14:57 | 3604513 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

BTW, the Saudi King has been technically dead since wednesday... this could get real interesting as the war for succession begins...

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 15:14 | 3604557 constantine
constantine's picture

It would be interesting to know what levels the stock market would need to reach in order to actually become inflationary; i.e., liquidation of stock gains leads to surges in money supply. Clearly recent stock market gains are pure inflation, which is truly assinine since I can't think of another time in history where the stock market provided a true inflation hedge in real terms as it now appears to be doing. The Stock market is performing as gold is theorized to do.

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 15:18 | 3604575 nantucket
nantucket's picture

One of the funniest quotes i ever heard from a CEO.  He was the CEO of SPX Corporation.  Someone at a Q&A session during an investor meeting pressed him on using more cash flow for buybacks to grow EPS.  He said "I can grow by investing internally, acquiring, or I can buy back shares until I disappear up my own asshole".

Best CEO answer I had heard in a long time. 

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 15:56 | 3604730 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...guess he did not have enough options....

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 15:30 | 3604635 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Mr. Wall....nice to meet you!

 

 

Tue, 05/28/2013 - 15:55 | 3604724 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Top management with its stock option packages will funnel more and more into these stock buybacks....they are being paid to do so.

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