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Bad News Is Good As GDP, Claims Miss Pushes Futures Higher; Five States' Data "Estimated"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update: so much for the kneejerk reaction sending futs higher on the bad data: USDJPY dragging everything down now.

Just when there was some concern that the US economy was no longer imploding at the usual pace, we get confirmation that nothing is actually better, following the one-two punch of weaker than expected Q1 revised GDP data, printing at 2.4% on expectations of an unchanged 2.5% print driven by a revision in Private Inventories (from 1.03% to 0.63% of total GDP, offset by a plunge in imports sliding from -0.9% to -0.32%). Personal Consumption posted a tiny increase from 2.24% to 2.40% which can only mean the consumer overextended themselves in Q1 - perhaps it is about time to ask the question of how consumption in the "sequester" and tax-hike quarter was the highest since Q4 2010. Additionally, initial claims increased from the as usual upward-revised 344K to 354K, on expectations of a 340K print. But fear not: what both these data points showed is that any fears that the monthly Fed flow may slow down from the $85 billion monthly to a ghastly $75 billion or, heaven forbid, a tiny $65 billion monthly increase in the Fed's balance sheet, may be deferred. End result: futures jump higher. Because it is a Bizarro Ben, or Benzarro for short, market after all.

GDP broken down by components:

As for claims, the holiday-shortened week prompted the Labor department to 'estimate' claims from 5 states (Virginia, Wyoming, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Oregon). The 354k print is a miss from expectations of 340k for the worst combined 3 weeks in over 2 months. The gentle downtrend of claims appears (though noisy) to be finding a limit here as the 4-week-average ticked up yet again. The total number coollecting benefits rose by 63,000 to 2.99 million. California topped the initial claims list.

 

 

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Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:46 | 3609966 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Es' tim' a' tion...

The new normal: we make shit up as we go, and you will be bullish.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:48 | 3609975 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Bad is good. Wrong is right. Up is down. Black is white.

 

Welcome to the dope show.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:55 | 3610001 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Yep.  This is just out from Goldman Sachs.

Keep Buying Equities

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100775620

 

 

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:57 | 3610008 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I believe the full line should have been

Keep buying equities... we're selling.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:02 | 3610040 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Fools gain legitimacy thusly. Then, New Normal begins. Age of Idiocracy sets in.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 10:01 | 3610260 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Oh Fuck You Bernanke

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:02 | 3610041 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Futures might be up on the GDP/U-3 releases, but I think the S&P will finish the day down.  The bull energy is rapidly decreasing in this market.  IMO, the set up for a significant decline is in place.  It's like the smell of rain that is approaching.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:07 | 3610057 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, the "smartest people in the room" need to find the greater fool.  Remember it isn't a "profit" until you sell.

The time bomb continues to tick as the yield on the 10-year treasury bond has been above 2.0% for far too long;

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:03 | 3610043 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Bad news= QE injection continues,,,,nothing to see here move along move along..

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:11 | 3610065 spine001
spine001's picture

Translation--> Sell, Sell, Sell...

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:15 | 3610082 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Here's Cramer's sound board for the full effect:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100000942

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:44 | 3610189 PiltdownMan
PiltdownMan's picture

Great. Consumers borrow more, save less. and commercial construction spending crashes.

 

Good news? Not according to this guy. 

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/05/30/q1-real-gdp-and-jobless-claims-miss-expectations-commercial-construction-spending-plunges/

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:48 | 3609976 WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

Most jobless are no longer eligible for unemployment benefits so they dont count. ... the number will continue to decline ...

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:57 | 3610012 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

See then? The number is getting lower so we are doing great!

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:37 | 3610159 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Just finished remodeling a house. Client is ancient, and retiring in a month from the US Census. He says the survey's are junk. GIGO. The field staff are lazy, lying hacks. Imagine the performance of the post office, only they don't deliver mail.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:55 | 3610228 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

10 yrs Boom bonds, japan bonds ready for explosion...captain benny and co just jumping in the safeboats...

http://zysites.com/silververitas/

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:46 | 3609967 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

CNBC shitheads are blaming GDP miss on sequester.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:50 | 3609982 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Did they happen to mention we need a sequester on steroids if we have any chance of pulling out of this crap?

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:53 | 3609998 Lendo
Lendo's picture

We're not paying it back.  It's mathematically impossible with the government we have.

If rates go up to just 1% we default..

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:57 | 3610015 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yeah.....it looks pretty bad. Just don't do something stupid and try to save yourself by purchasing precious metals.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:01 | 3610033 Lendo
Lendo's picture

LOL, people get so upset when I talk about buying ammo and junk silver.  So I kindly remind them that Bartertown doesn't accept fiat anything.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:17 | 3610088 spine001
spine001's picture

To help all of us think. My advanced finance professor nicely demonstrated to us that debt from a solvent company is NEVER paid back, unless the company finds it advantageous to do so. Therefore, it is a given that a Country will never ever pay back its debts. The way to think about it is cash flow. Can the US generate the cash flow necessary to service its debt, while still servicing it? That is the question, only focus on how much gets in versus out. The total amounts are meaningless, thus the focus of economists to look at debts as % of GDP, which is NOT the correct measure, only a false (in my mind) approximation.

Until next time,

Engineer

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:34 | 3610147 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

You should say that a bit louder. From the price action today it looks like too many people missed what you said. For those who like to gamble weekly options to take advantage of the jump from 50 to 62% retrace of the May decline look good to me. But what do I know?

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:50 | 3609984 autofixer
autofixer's picture

I guess economists did not know to factor the sequester in?  CNBS is a bunch of boneheads.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:59 | 3610024 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Well, I do believe sequester resulted in a loss of 100M jobs.  So a small decline in GDP would be expected.... 

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:05 | 3610053 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Well at tleast your number is less than the total population of the US, and probably even less just barely than the total WORKING population of the United States.  For a second I thought you were going to pull a Pelosi and claim that the sequester resulted in the loss of 500 Million jobs.  Btw, the acidly dripping sracasm of the main article above is just plain awesome.  I almost burned myself reading it.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:17 | 3610092 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

500M or 100M, Pelosi and Maxine Waters battleing for biggest headline I guess.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:48 | 3609974 ekm
ekm's picture

Let me copy/paste the following again. Please remember to disregard all government data including Federal reserve data or Federal Reserve meeting notes.

They are all propaganda.

 

 

My recommendation:

Enjoy the weather.

 

Summary of the current situation:

 

This thing will collapse by presidential executive order only under the following reasons:

 

1) Multy country currency swaps, thus dollar being avoided

2) Crude oil price

3) Primary dealers infighting as to who's going to survive, unless they manage to lure in pension funds and insurance companies

4) Big lobby inflighting as to who's going to suffer less from the collapse.

5) Iran/Syria attack

 

Reminder: The gov is a product of elite infighting. The president deals with winner. Right now Pharma and Big banks are winning whereas Big Oil and probably Military Industrial Complex are losing, but gov civil war is not over.

 

So, again

My recommendation:

Enjoy the weather.

 

Until those guys settle the score, nothing's gona happen

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:14 | 3610078 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

You know, for any other President to be incompetent and out of touch and failing to do his job when Americans died it would be explosive.  But this pretender channels Reagan in the following way:  Teflon.  I hope we can get rid of him through non-violent means.  That would be best.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:17 | 3610085 ekm
ekm's picture

The article is from a military man, not anonymous.

 

"They" are going after the president, IMO.

Military in counterattack.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 10:27 | 3610345 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

While consistent with what I am hearing from myfriends who where former black operatives, unless you know precisely what percentage of the military this is and what their secure resources/assets are, you are talking out your ass.  You can't fix stupid, and there are many sheep among the military ranks, CIA and FBI that still serve the fascists "leadership".

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 11:58 | 3610653 ekm
ekm's picture

Fully agree.

100% of people talk out of their ass 100% of the time.

 

It's called: SUBJECTIVITY

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:21 | 3610101 spine001
spine001's picture

Again, eventhough you are correct in theory, you are forgettin the fractal nature of the system they are attempting to control. What this means is that they are not able to decide when, unless they trigger it on purpose, which is possible but unlikely as you say. The system by itself will get out of control, it is the nature of the beast.

You may want to read "A new kind of science" by Wolfran

They are loosing control right now as the gyrations of the market demonstrates.

Until next time,

Engineer

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:52 | 3610136 ekm
ekm's picture

I agree with you.

I've never ever ever said they'll be able to control it forever.

They will until........they can't.

 

And I actually think that we're quite close to the ...."can't"....phase.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:57 | 3610241 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

The " They, The System, Gov" will not only survive, but prosper. Look at German gov and crony " private " institutions from Bismarck forward. German sheeple? Not so much.
Ditto N Korea, .... The State survives.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 10:24 | 3610336 ekm
ekm's picture

Not sure.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:48 | 3609977 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

EOM ramp in progress. Please do not disturb the bears. They're already disturbed enough with all of this bull.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:48 | 3609978 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

But the taper...but the taper.....

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:53 | 3609997 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

the horror....the horror....the horror

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:01 | 3610034 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Someday this war is going to end....

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:52 | 3609994 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Global cooling caused this. The second coldest spring ever.

Please send your taxes in.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:28 | 3610124 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Whether it gets hotter, or cooler, it is still caused by man made global warming. Didn't you get the memo on this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bchnLOT7ic

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:56 | 3610009 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Come have eggroll at "Shity Wok Cafe". I can even lay down for 3-4 hours of sleep without some B/S algofest, blowing out the overnight gains in my trades. Bernanke probably has a smile from ear to ear. This will keep the hawks off his back for another 2-3 months.

      The yields are creeping higher in Spain and Italy again. Their 10s are both over 4%, and the auction results were nasty overnight.

    
02:10       EUR             Italian 10-Year BTP Auction     4.14%           3.94%      
02:10       EUR             Italian 5-Year BTP Auction     3.01%           2.84%    

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:58 | 3610019 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

you don't sleep much, do you?

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:01 | 3610037 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      Got to get when the getting is good I/R. Lots of volatility in F/X right now. I'll make up for it over the W/E.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:20 | 3610100 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

o/k

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 08:57 | 3610013 kito
kito's picture

weaker than expected Q1 revised GDP data, printing at 2.4% on expectations of an unchanged 2.5% print.......

 

.....i guess the govts and corporations arent promising enough money towards pension fund contributions.......................

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:00 | 3610025 css1971
css1971's picture

Know what should be done? Increase interest rates. That'll make it all better.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:21 | 3610103 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Actually after a bit of pain it would...

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:12 | 3610072 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

yen strengthening vs dollar, futures falling, crude oil sliding again, nikkei plunges again, lets hope u.s markets follow.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:15 | 3610083 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The only thing that expanded from prior was "Personal Expendatures".  Proof that one can make shit up, and the masses will buy it.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:25 | 3610115 spine001
spine001's picture

Aren't Hittler, Mussoline, Mao Tse Tung, Napoleon Bonaparte, Franco, etc. proof enough of that?

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:24 | 3610113 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

gotta love how bmo and jefferies upgrade facebook in order to try and save it from its continious plunge. its like a last ditch effort to give the stock life.

 

 

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:25 | 3610118 KashNCarry
KashNCarry's picture

Can I give you all a laugh with this story: 'Challenging Assumptions on the Fed’s Money Printing' which categorically states that the Fed is not printing `mo money...

Have a laugh its from (cough) Doug Casey's site, wonder what kind o' Kool Aid this guy is on?

http://bit.ly/15e88yJ

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:33 | 3610143 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I have much less in the GDP numbers than I do in the Corporate Profit numbers.  

With today's data release, year over year profit growth for the last four quartes is now below where we were in the four quaretes ending with the fourth quarter of 2006.

 

The Fed is no longer enabling the economy to recover from the "Great Recession".  Instead it is masking the fact that we should already be in the Obama recession.

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:34 | 3610149 spine001
spine001's picture

"There is one simple point to be made about Benghazi: the President of the United States is the only human being on the planet that can order a bullet, a missile, a plane, a drone, a boat, a helicopter, a soldier, sailor, spy, or push cart with a squirt gun attached to go into another country and perform an aggressive action."

Colonel-David-Hunt

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/05/29/Blame-the-President-for-Be...

No comments necessary. He says what we all thought in ZH when this happened... Traitor!

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:34 | 3610150 muleskinner
muleskinner's picture

15,000 and all is well.

 

It's another day at the beach for the Dow.  Sun, surf, and sand.  what else is there?

 

Later on, the party will be at Jackie Treehorn's and Bunny Lebowski is going be there!

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:42 | 3610175 spine001
spine001's picture

"Colonel David Hunt has over 29 years of military experience including extensive operational experience in special operations, counter terrorism and intelligence operations."

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/personalities/david-hunt/bio/#s=a-d

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 09:46 | 3610199 spine001
spine001's picture

Barack Hussein (Obama), II, has NO operational experience whatsoever, including special operations, counter terrorism and intelligence operations, specially intelligence...

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 10:33 | 3610361 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

Heck CNBC's website hasn't even reported the info yet.  I guess they are afraid working people will see it

Thu, 05/30/2013 - 10:37 | 3610375 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Housing sales missed too - expected 1.1%, actual 0.3%.  S&P up 8.

 

Fuck yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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