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Bad News Is Good As GDP, Claims Miss Pushes Futures Higher; Five States' Data "Estimated"
Update: so much for the kneejerk reaction sending futs higher on the bad data: USDJPY dragging everything down now.
Just when there was some concern that the US economy was no longer imploding at the usual pace, we get confirmation that nothing is actually better, following the one-two punch of weaker than expected Q1 revised GDP data, printing at 2.4% on expectations of an unchanged 2.5% print driven by a revision in Private Inventories (from 1.03% to 0.63% of total GDP, offset by a plunge in imports sliding from -0.9% to -0.32%). Personal Consumption posted a tiny increase from 2.24% to 2.40% which can only mean the consumer overextended themselves in Q1 - perhaps it is about time to ask the question of how consumption in the "sequester" and tax-hike quarter was the highest since Q4 2010. Additionally, initial claims increased from the as usual upward-revised 344K to 354K, on expectations of a 340K print. But fear not: what both these data points showed is that any fears that the monthly Fed flow may slow down from the $85 billion monthly to a ghastly $75 billion or, heaven forbid, a tiny $65 billion monthly increase in the Fed's balance sheet, may be deferred. End result: futures jump higher. Because it is a Bizarro Ben, or Benzarro for short, market after all.
GDP broken down by components:
As for claims, the holiday-shortened week prompted the Labor department to 'estimate' claims from 5 states (Virginia, Wyoming, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Oregon). The 354k print is a miss from expectations of 340k for the worst combined 3 weeks in over 2 months. The gentle downtrend of claims appears (though noisy) to be finding a limit here as the 4-week-average ticked up yet again. The total number coollecting benefits rose by 63,000 to 2.99 million. California topped the initial claims list.
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Es' tim' a' tion...
The new normal: we make shit up as we go, and you will be bullish.
Bad is good. Wrong is right. Up is down. Black is white.
Welcome to the dope show.
Yep. This is just out from Goldman Sachs.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100775620
I believe the full line should have been
Keep buying equities... we're selling.
Fools gain legitimacy thusly. Then, New Normal begins. Age of Idiocracy sets in.
Oh Fuck You Bernanke
Futures might be up on the GDP/U-3 releases, but I think the S&P will finish the day down. The bull energy is rapidly decreasing in this market. IMO, the set up for a significant decline is in place. It's like the smell of rain that is approaching.
Yes, the "smartest people in the room" need to find the greater fool. Remember it isn't a "profit" until you sell.
The time bomb continues to tick as the yield on the 10-year treasury bond has been above 2.0% for far too long;
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year
Bad news= QE injection continues,,,,nothing to see here move along move along..
Translation--> Sell, Sell, Sell...
Here's Cramer's sound board for the full effect:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100000942
Great. Consumers borrow more, save less. and commercial construction spending crashes.
Good news? Not according to this guy.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/05/30/q1-real-gdp-and-jobless-claims-miss-expectations-commercial-construction-spending-plunges/
Most jobless are no longer eligible for unemployment benefits so they dont count. ... the number will continue to decline ...
See then? The number is getting lower so we are doing great!
Just finished remodeling a house. Client is ancient, and retiring in a month from the US Census. He says the survey's are junk. GIGO. The field staff are lazy, lying hacks. Imagine the performance of the post office, only they don't deliver mail.
10 yrs Boom bonds, japan bonds ready for explosion...captain benny and co just jumping in the safeboats...
http://zysites.com/silververitas/
CNBC shitheads are blaming GDP miss on sequester.
Did they happen to mention we need a sequester on steroids if we have any chance of pulling out of this crap?
We're not paying it back. It's mathematically impossible with the government we have.
If rates go up to just 1% we default..
Yeah.....it looks pretty bad. Just don't do something stupid and try to save yourself by purchasing precious metals.
LOL, people get so upset when I talk about buying ammo and junk silver. So I kindly remind them that Bartertown doesn't accept fiat anything.
To help all of us think. My advanced finance professor nicely demonstrated to us that debt from a solvent company is NEVER paid back, unless the company finds it advantageous to do so. Therefore, it is a given that a Country will never ever pay back its debts. The way to think about it is cash flow. Can the US generate the cash flow necessary to service its debt, while still servicing it? That is the question, only focus on how much gets in versus out. The total amounts are meaningless, thus the focus of economists to look at debts as % of GDP, which is NOT the correct measure, only a false (in my mind) approximation.
Until next time,
Engineer
You should say that a bit louder. From the price action today it looks like too many people missed what you said. For those who like to gamble weekly options to take advantage of the jump from 50 to 62% retrace of the May decline look good to me. But what do I know?
I guess economists did not know to factor the sequester in? CNBS is a bunch of boneheads.
Well, I do believe sequester resulted in a loss of 100M jobs. So a small decline in GDP would be expected....
Well at tleast your number is less than the total population of the US, and probably even less just barely than the total WORKING population of the United States. For a second I thought you were going to pull a Pelosi and claim that the sequester resulted in the loss of 500 Million jobs. Btw, the acidly dripping sracasm of the main article above is just plain awesome. I almost burned myself reading it.
500M or 100M, Pelosi and Maxine Waters battleing for biggest headline I guess.
Let me copy/paste the following again. Please remember to disregard all government data including Federal reserve data or Federal Reserve meeting notes.
They are all propaganda.
My recommendation:
Enjoy the weather.
Summary of the current situation:
This thing will collapse by presidential executive order only under the following reasons:
1) Multy country currency swaps, thus dollar being avoided
2) Crude oil price
3) Primary dealers infighting as to who's going to survive, unless they manage to lure in pension funds and insurance companies
4) Big lobby inflighting as to who's going to suffer less from the collapse.
5) Iran/Syria attack
Reminder: The gov is a product of elite infighting. The president deals with winner. Right now Pharma and Big banks are winning whereas Big Oil and probably Military Industrial Complex are losing, but gov civil war is not over.
So, again
My recommendation:
Enjoy the weather.
Until those guys settle the score, nothing's gona happen
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/05/29/Blame-the-President-for-Benghazi
This is explosive.
You know, for any other President to be incompetent and out of touch and failing to do his job when Americans died it would be explosive. But this pretender channels Reagan in the following way: Teflon. I hope we can get rid of him through non-violent means. That would be best.
The article is from a military man, not anonymous.
"They" are going after the president, IMO.
Military in counterattack.
While consistent with what I am hearing from myfriends who where former black operatives, unless you know precisely what percentage of the military this is and what their secure resources/assets are, you are talking out your ass. You can't fix stupid, and there are many sheep among the military ranks, CIA and FBI that still serve the fascists "leadership".
Fully agree.
100% of people talk out of their ass 100% of the time.
It's called: SUBJECTIVITY
Again, eventhough you are correct in theory, you are forgettin the fractal nature of the system they are attempting to control. What this means is that they are not able to decide when, unless they trigger it on purpose, which is possible but unlikely as you say. The system by itself will get out of control, it is the nature of the beast.
You may want to read "A new kind of science" by Wolfran
They are loosing control right now as the gyrations of the market demonstrates.
Until next time,
Engineer
I agree with you.
I've never ever ever said they'll be able to control it forever.
They will until........they can't.
And I actually think that we're quite close to the ...."can't"....phase.
The " They, The System, Gov" will not only survive, but prosper. Look at German gov and crony " private " institutions from Bismarck forward. German sheeple? Not so much.
Ditto N Korea, .... The State survives.
Not sure.
EOM ramp in progress. Please do not disturb the bears. They're already disturbed enough with all of this bull.
But the taper...but the taper.....
the horror....the horror....the horror
Someday this war is going to end....
Global cooling caused this. The second coldest spring ever.
Please send your taxes in.
Whether it gets hotter, or cooler, it is still caused by man made global warming. Didn't you get the memo on this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bchnLOT7ic
Come have eggroll at "Shity Wok Cafe". I can even lay down for 3-4 hours of sleep without some B/S algofest, blowing out the overnight gains in my trades. Bernanke probably has a smile from ear to ear. This will keep the hawks off his back for another 2-3 months.
The yields are creeping higher in Spain and Italy again. Their 10s are both over 4%, and the auction results were nasty overnight.
02:10 EUR Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 4.14% 3.94%
02:10 EUR Italian 5-Year BTP Auction 3.01% 2.84%
you don't sleep much, do you?
Got to get when the getting is good I/R. Lots of volatility in F/X right now. I'll make up for it over the W/E.
o/k
weaker than expected Q1 revised GDP data, printing at 2.4% on expectations of an unchanged 2.5% print.......
.....i guess the govts and corporations arent promising enough money towards pension fund contributions.......................
Know what should be done? Increase interest rates. That'll make it all better.
Actually after a bit of pain it would...
yen strengthening vs dollar, futures falling, crude oil sliding again, nikkei plunges again, lets hope u.s markets follow.
The only thing that expanded from prior was "Personal Expendatures". Proof that one can make shit up, and the masses will buy it.
Aren't Hittler, Mussoline, Mao Tse Tung, Napoleon Bonaparte, Franco, etc. proof enough of that?
gotta love how bmo and jefferies upgrade facebook in order to try and save it from its continious plunge. its like a last ditch effort to give the stock life.
Can I give you all a laugh with this story: 'Challenging Assumptions on the Fed’s Money Printing' which categorically states that the Fed is not printing `mo money...
Have a laugh its from (cough) Doug Casey's site, wonder what kind o' Kool Aid this guy is on?
http://bit.ly/15e88yJ
I have much less in the GDP numbers than I do in the Corporate Profit numbers.
With today's data release, year over year profit growth for the last four quartes is now below where we were in the four quaretes ending with the fourth quarter of 2006.
The Fed is no longer enabling the economy to recover from the "Great Recession". Instead it is masking the fact that we should already be in the Obama recession.
"There is one simple point to be made about Benghazi: the President of the United States is the only human being on the planet that can order a bullet, a missile, a plane, a drone, a boat, a helicopter, a soldier, sailor, spy, or push cart with a squirt gun attached to go into another country and perform an aggressive action."
Colonel-David-Hunt
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/05/29/Blame-the-President-for-Be...
No comments necessary. He says what we all thought in ZH when this happened... Traitor!
15,000 and all is well.
It's another day at the beach for the Dow. Sun, surf, and sand. what else is there?
Later on, the party will be at Jackie Treehorn's and Bunny Lebowski is going be there!
"Colonel David Hunt has over 29 years of military experience including extensive operational experience in special operations, counter terrorism and intelligence operations."
http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/personalities/david-hunt/bio/#s=a-d
Barack Hussein (Obama), II, has NO operational experience whatsoever, including special operations, counter terrorism and intelligence operations, specially intelligence...
Heck CNBC's website hasn't even reported the info yet. I guess they are afraid working people will see it
Housing sales missed too - expected 1.1%, actual 0.3%. S&P up 8.
Fuck yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!