IceCap Asset Management: "Bernanke's Bouncing Ball"

Tyler Durden's picture

Contrary to popular belief, Bozo wasn’t the first clown to drop the ball. That honour goes to 16th century jester William Sommers simply told one joke too many, and before he knew it, both his juggling balls and his head were hitting the floor at the same time. Today, we have the making of the biggest financial clown of all time. As head of the world’s most powerful institution, the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke has lobbed one giant money ball into the global financial system. This ball continues to bounce along one market to the other, and so long as it doesn’t touch the ground everyone is happy. Yet, should this ball grow so large it cannot be supported, one simple slip will be unfortunate for everyone. To follow the interconnectedness of markets, just follow Bernanke’s bouncing ball.

 


 

Via IceCap Asset Management's Keith Dicker,

...

 

A poor earnings season – stocks zoom higher. Bad US manufacturing reports – stocks leap higher. Deeper and broadening recessions in Europe – stocks skyrocket even higher if that’s possible. Talk about a honey badger market – today’s stock market really doesn’t care, about anything.

 

...

 

Of course, we can only have two outcomes:

 

either the real economy (the one with real people, real jobs, and real income) also zooms upward,

 

or

 

the stock market zooms back to reality.

 

Which naturally raises the question – “who’s zooming who”?

 

To answer the question, look no further than the talking heads. Whereas a few short months ago, experts on the Cypriot banking system crawled out of the woodwork. Today we have the same experts talking about the accelerating recovery and the soon to come economic nirvana.

 

While “nirvana” sounds a little too easy for today’s money masters to master, the newest and most used term by anyone with 30 seconds of fame is “accelerating recovery”. Everywhere we read, watch and listen, these magical words dance through the air. Unsurprisingly, this newest and coolest term originated in America. But don‘t despair, pretty soon Europeans of all sorts will move along from chanting “the worst is over” and graduate to their very own “accelerating recovery”.

 

Now as most people rarely read beyond the headlines, or question whether anything in print or full of pixels is anything but true, it’s worthwhile to actually dig around for evidence of this accelerating economy.

To get a 'glimpse' into the real world, IceCap's Full Presentation is below:

 

IceCap Asset Management Limited Global Markets 2013.5

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Nolsgrad's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JipYAjZ3R5I

 

balloons..................are dangerous

Harry Dong's picture

ahhh, yeah. That was ....disturbing. But very apropos to the subject manner!

(This is so getting forwarded to my oldest kid)

 

Jdog's picture

The Asteroid that is flying by earth tomorrow is call 1998 QE2.

I_Am_'s picture

Buy Moar Stawks Now!!!! And 4Eva 

lolmao500's picture

While it's the COPS VS the FIREFIGHTERS in Spain... society collapse here we go.

A pics says it all...

http://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/ay_111019051.jpg

And the whole story...

http://metro.co.uk/2013/05/30/gallery-barcelona-firefighters-budget-cuts...

 

Jdog's picture

lol that some funny shit! lol

otto skorzeny's picture

Apparently Daft Punk are also Spanish firefighters.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Now we see what a protection racket looks like, in the 21st century! Kinda makes me want to see the bus drivers, garbage men, and sewage disposal guys join.

DIgnified's picture

Here's apparently a bunch of twat cops choking a kid for giving the stinkeye.

 

http://www.alternet.org/civil-liberties/black-14-year-old-carrying-puppy...

I'm starting to think we've peaked as a civilization. 

 

Edit:link change 

otto skorzeny's picture

The donut eaters are really setting themselves up for the fall quite nicely.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

'dehumanizing stares' and 'clenched his fists'

Thought police are comin'!

otto skorzeny's picture

Too bad they can't kill one another- think of the pension $ saved.

DIgnified's picture

You see....  Right there.  There's a silver lining to everything.  

Civil servant gladiatorial matches- The next big thing!

 

otto skorzeny's picture

Fuck-I wish they'd do it here in the US.

Jdog's picture

the firefighters should of shoot the cops with water cannon! dummies

dtwn's picture

Thanks for the links.  Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuccccccckkkkkk. . . . . . . This. Will. Not. End. Well.

nathan1234's picture

Bernanke's ball is his bald head that will be cut loose and kicked around like the can he was kicking around.

 

Tombstone's picture

Perhaps, one day, that will be Benny's sponge filled head bouncing all over the place. 

malikai's picture

The perfect name would be Bernanke's Bucephalous Bouncing Ball.

It could have the Aphex track as it's theme music.

disabledvet's picture

again i know this is blasphemy in these here parts but (besides this being a wonderful although far from dynamic missive) "blowing bubbles is Wall Street's job" and "when the bubble bursts it's Wall Street's job to get the money bank." i'm not sure people understand...and certainly Icepack management...how hard it is to create a bubble in the first place. needless to say "the Fed isn't tightening anytime soon" though it may be "tapering." eh. am i advocating going whole hog long here? i jumped ship in January/February and i'm having lorded over me "what a bad market timer i am." sorry...but i'd rather be known as a good risk manager first and foremost...someone capable (barely) of turning down the volume of the Boiler room media maniacs. have they ever had an in depth discussion of what "enterprise value" even is? obviously no one here has broached the subject...but "there is such a thing as business and management" folks...and yes...they have to pay attention to the markets cuz they got a payroll to meet! are they and "their evil banking friends" pining for an economic recovery worthy of the name? YOU'RE GOD DAMN RIGHT THEY ARE. this site has MANY friends...far more in my opinion than any financial outlet on the planet. but OUR bread gets buttered only when we reach out to our Fellow Travelers in this crazy game called "i don't want to gamble the entire business away on a something called a Credit Default Swap." on, and "this includes policy makers and an entire war effort that may/may not be winding down." happy Friday trading!

Harry Dong's picture
"how hard it is to create a bubble in the first place" I think this is where you have me disagreeing....
but then I strongly agree that you must be a good risk manager. Is this shorthand for 'just saying no' and go all cash? (or even 20% PM?) Regardless, I look forward to your comments.
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The people in charge want are " pining for an economic recovery worthy of the name" AS LONG AS that means they get to stay in charge.

Its quite simple to fix (or at least improve) the economy, but its not in the interests of the extremely wealthy to make those changes. 

Among these changes:
Greatly simplified and reduced tax regime

Greatly reduced size of government (66%+ reduction required)

Return of rule of law

Debt writeoffs, this will sadly mean promised entitlements cannot possibly be provided

Ban of fractional reserve banking (and the Fed, of course)

Feel free to add to the list...

Cabreado's picture

While honesty is always good, truth has a way of coming out of the woodwork when the lies don't work so well anymore, or simply invoke fear...

It must be a nightmare now "managing" the fallout of the chaos fed (no pun) from the top down...

but then again, a big part of why we're here is that everyone's been preoccupied with ignoring the truth, meeting expectations, and in general having way too much fun.  That part is not top-down, and that certainly includes the money "managers."

khakuda's picture

Ben must be making Greenspan proud.  The late 90s bubble is going to look small by the time this clown is done inflating asset values year after year beyond justified fundamental growth.

When it crashes, interest rates will already be zero and QE will likely still be going, so he is going to do $500 billion to $1 trillion a month to stabilize things at that point.

It's too late to go back.  Pandora is out of the box and there can be no return.

Fuku Ben's picture

"Obama is a sociopath, Ben Bernanke is a Criminal and the US dollar will collapse"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTGAsyf_0JY

Tulpa's picture

Not to nitpick, but according to Wikipedia, famed court jester William Sommers died peacefully in 1560, outliving Henry VIII in fact and performing for his daughter Queen Elizabeth (despite calling her, arguably correctly, a "bastard" before she was queen).

khakuda's picture

Do you think everytime Ben prints money, David Tepper does this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-50GjySwew

Harry Dong's picture

hmmm. Icecap = Zerohedge.

Dr_Lucid's picture

A decent article, thanks for posting.  The three factors I'm taking away from this are:

 

  • It is a given that people will continue to give up looking for work thus bringing the unemployment rate in line with what the FED needs to consider the taper
  • Europe indeed is the dirtiest thong in the room and their risk capital will eventually flow into our markets
  • The people who gave up looking for work will stop shopping at Wal-Mart and they will learn how to save.  Consumption is going to go in the crapper, which will kill corproate earnings

So for the markets, the unemployment # getting in lines brings the taper.  This is BAD for the market.  Europe is screwed so they will look to the US to buy our risk assets so this is GOOD for the market.  And finally reduced consumption from everyone trying to save money to live and not spend it at Wal-Mart is BAD for the market. 

BAD+GOOD+BAD = BAD

The simple solution here would be for the FED to initially hint at the taper, almost do it, but when corporate earnings hit the fan in the fall they not only stop the threat of the taper but they INCREASE the POMO.

Not only are the markets going to crash and burn to hell, but we are not even close yet to making the situation as horrible as it can be.  This is just stage one.  Icecap is right....we have 3-4 months of chop until this gets much moar dangerous.

AbbeBrel's picture

Onother bit on Will Sommers - In Thomas Wilson's Arte of Rhetorique (1553–60), Will is quoted telling the financially hard-up King: "You have so many Frauditors [Auditors], so many Conveighers [Surveyers], and so many Deceivers [Receivers] that they get all to themselves.  (Wikipedia)

Sounds like things haven't changed all that much since the time of Henry VIII!  - AB

 

dunce's picture

Bernanke has voices inside his head telling him what he must do.

DavidC's picture

Apparently Sommers wasn't beheaded as Tyler's piece implies, he seems to have retired and died of old age.

http://www.a-london-tourist-guide.com/william-sommers.html

DavidC